So, we've just witnessed one of the more spectacular UPL achievements this year. C-Lauff managed to come awfully close to the Roland Slam, with a 2nd place finish in basketball, and W's in both baseball and football. Of course, the Jabrones are currently in the cellar in basketball, so the threat of the Jabrone Slam (holding 3 consecutive titles, but not in the same calendar year, though the name isn't set in stone - whoever gets there first gets to name it) is slim .
You can probably argue that this is the 2nd best year in the UPL, ever. The gold standard in the UPL is still the O.N. Thugs' magical run in 2003. But C-Lauff in 2008 probably ranks just ahead of the 2007 O.N. Thugs, who won baseball and basketball, and finished 2nd in football. However, the baseball title was marred by a tie with the '90 Reds who caught up on the last day of the season.
The UPL is a little too young to really look at full year performances (plus we don't have enough owners to play all 3 sports for it to be meaningful). However, it is interesting to look at the most dominant teams in the history of the UPL.
Two teams come to mind quickly: The O.N. Thugs' 2004 Baseball and 2007 Basketball.
The '07 Basketball team was scary, scoring 89.5 points (out of a possible 100). They won 4 of the 10 categories, and finished 2nd in 4 other categories. The season was pretty much conceded by the end of January. When you have the 2nd place team wondering when baseball season was starting, with 2 months left in the season, you know that it was a thumping. The season started with a draft day trade w/ C-Lauff, where we swapped positions in the 1st and 2nd rounds. I got Kobe and Amare for CP3 and Tim Duncan. Kobe was awesome. Amare had a huge comeback season after knee surgery. CP3 was hurt for a lot of the season. Deron Williams was drafted a little earlier than expected (in the 6th round), which paid off, though D-Will was traded during the middle of the season. Marcus Camby and Carlos Boozer were fantasy stalwarts, as well.
The O.N. Thugs' 2004 baseball team was probably just as good. They scored 146 (out of a possible 168 points - there were 14 teams in the league that year!). They won an amazing 7 out of 12 categories, and finished 2nd in 2 others. The most interesting question was whether or not the Thugs would cover the spread (of I believe, 25 points), which, sadly, they did not (the 2nd place team finished with 128, 18 points back). This team was built with starting pitching, generally a no-no in fantasy baseball. But the pitchers were Pedro, Unit, and Schilling, back when they all were still lights out pitchers, as they combined to win 53, lose only 29, strike out 720 (!!!), have an ERA around 3, and a WHIP around 1.05. This also was the season that cemented the O.N. Thugs' infatuation with Mark Teixeira and Adam Dunn, who were in their 2nd and 3rd full seasons in the majors, and combined for an average of 103 R, 42 HR, 107 RBI, with a .380 OBP and .565 SLG. Pretty good numbers for 10th and 11th round picks.
It's one thing to be dominant. It's another to change the nature of the league.
Westy's 2004 Basketball team was very good, finishing ahead of the pack by almost 2200 points (a little more than 10% above the 2nd place team). KG finished with over 4000 points (with career highs of 24.2 points, 13.9 boards, and 2.2 blocks a game). In fact, this was a team that changed the course of the UPL. For the 3rd consecutive season, basketball had gotten boring, with the teams so far ahead that the last month was pointless. Starting in 2005, we changed the format over to the current 10-category roto style, which has been a much more interesting format, with changes in the standings happening on the last day of the season.
It's hard to really call a football team dominant, given the nature of fantasy football. But, we've had some interesting seasons there, as well. The 2007 JimmyDix squad lost the first 2 games of the season, and then rolled the rest of the way, going 13-1 the rest of the way, with only a tight loss in week 11. The average margin of victory in the last 11 games of the regular season was 47.32 points, even including the loss. No real nail-biters there. The 2003 O.N. Thugs were only 10-4 in the regular season, but scored 264 points more than the nearest competitor, and rolled through the playoffs. And the 2005 I Giocatori team went 11-3 in the regular season, and went through the playoffs as the #1 seed, winning in miraculous fashion in the finals over C-Lauff, who was Washington Redskinned (not very PC, if you ask me).
As we move forward, football will remain a crapshoot. However, with the change to dynasty formats in basketball and baseball, we may see teams be dominant over the course of a longer time span. Of course, given that the O.N. Thugs are currently in 17th place in basketball, this may not be a good thing for us. But then again, who knows?
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Letting the Axe Fall
Well, I guess it was inevitable, but the company I work for banned the Yahoo Fantasy Homepage (and all team pages) from access while at work. Its a frustrating situation, but given the sheer amount of time most employees were spending on the fantasy webpage I'd say it was a necessity productivity-wise. So, a state of the Union, while I watch my season finally end...
League: ....Of Doom
Team: TheJimmyDixSpecials
Record / Points: 4-11 (10th place), 1111pts (3rd highest point average)
Summary: Losing 5 games by less than 8 points was rough. This league was a victim of its early success, as the waiver wire for TE's never got better than an injured Jeremy Shockey and my TE sucked but was still necessary. Neglect and focus on my other two leagues led to me leaving Reggie Bush in despite his injury for two weeks, two losses that eliminated me from the playoffs. The motto for next year will be that less is more - especially with limited time and internet access.
League: GFL
Team: Tatum Bell's Luggage
Record / Points: 7-5-1 (4th place), 1081 (7th place)
Summary: This is my money league, so I'm especially anxious to see how this weekend turned out. Like in the UPL, poor QB selection with high draft picks plauged my team the whole season long. Unlike my other leagues, the GFL maintained a strong sense of parity and the point spread remained tight.
League: UPL
Team: JimmyDixSpecials - various
Record / Points: 6-7 (8th place), 1825 (8th place)
Summary: Whew, what a bloodbath. Unlike other leagues, a late surge and luck alone secured my spot in the playoffs. The first few weeks were doomed as it quickly became apparent that my poor drafting of Steve Smith, Matt Hasselbeck and Carson Palmer was going to hurt me fast. Picking up Kyle Orton was blatant homerism - and a desperate move that paid off. Then, when he got hurt, I (apparently) tested the patience of the Fantasy Football Gods by grabbing Tyler Thigpen and letting the newbie play. Whatever. I made the playoffs. After a miraculous run in the previous playoffs - see post from the Chairman titled "The Worst Day of the Year" - I was content to let the season end, the Jimmy Dix mirroring the overperformance and luck of the 2008 Chicago White Sox season.
I might have a chance to win it all in my money league. I need Steve Smith to have a GAME.
League: ....Of Doom
Team: TheJimmyDixSpecials
Record / Points: 4-11 (10th place), 1111pts (3rd highest point average)
Summary: Losing 5 games by less than 8 points was rough. This league was a victim of its early success, as the waiver wire for TE's never got better than an injured Jeremy Shockey and my TE sucked but was still necessary. Neglect and focus on my other two leagues led to me leaving Reggie Bush in despite his injury for two weeks, two losses that eliminated me from the playoffs. The motto for next year will be that less is more - especially with limited time and internet access.
League: GFL
Team: Tatum Bell's Luggage
Record / Points: 7-5-1 (4th place), 1081 (7th place)
Summary: This is my money league, so I'm especially anxious to see how this weekend turned out. Like in the UPL, poor QB selection with high draft picks plauged my team the whole season long. Unlike my other leagues, the GFL maintained a strong sense of parity and the point spread remained tight.
League: UPL
Team: JimmyDixSpecials - various
Record / Points: 6-7 (8th place), 1825 (8th place)
Summary: Whew, what a bloodbath. Unlike other leagues, a late surge and luck alone secured my spot in the playoffs. The first few weeks were doomed as it quickly became apparent that my poor drafting of Steve Smith, Matt Hasselbeck and Carson Palmer was going to hurt me fast. Picking up Kyle Orton was blatant homerism - and a desperate move that paid off. Then, when he got hurt, I (apparently) tested the patience of the Fantasy Football Gods by grabbing Tyler Thigpen and letting the newbie play. Whatever. I made the playoffs. After a miraculous run in the previous playoffs - see post from the Chairman titled "The Worst Day of the Year" - I was content to let the season end, the Jimmy Dix mirroring the overperformance and luck of the 2008 Chicago White Sox season.
I might have a chance to win it all in my money league. I need Steve Smith to have a GAME.
Monday, December 15, 2008
What Fantasy Football Means to Me
The Fantasy Football Gods are fickle. Luck is very much a part of the game. For example, if you look at the playoff brackets in the UPL, you'll see something interesting. Of the 8 teams that made the playoffs, the 4 teams from the winner's bracket have (by a clear amount) the 4 lowest scores this week (ranging from 107.05 to 141.87). The 4 teams from the loser's bracket have scores ranging from 169.81 to 186.15. Of course, the Fantasy Football Gods are likely not in the mood to allow a repeat championship for a team that starts Tyler Thigpen and Davone Bess. Thank the Gods for that.
But more to the point of this post, fantasy football has this incredible ability to make the mundane into something spectacular.
For example, this week's Monday night matchup is a brick by most normal, sane views. Browns vs. Eagles, two teams that are rumbling about firing their coaches. These are teams that have gone through QB carousels (sort of) - the Browns due to poor play, and then two injuries, and the Eagles due to poor play and lack of knowledge regarding overtime rules.
But this game is a pivotal one in the UPL Football semifinals. Coming into Monday's game:
1 vs. 4 seed:
(4) I Giocatori - 108.43
(1) IAmJabrone - 128.08
The Jabrones are looking for their first UPL Football crown, as well as the 2nd leg of the Roland Slam. They are done for the week and have a 19.65 point edge on I Giocatori, who is the most successful UPL Football franchise, with 4 championships already. The only player left to go for I Giocatori? Brian Westbrook, star running back for the Eagles, who is "projected" by Yahoo! to have 27.41 points.
2 vs. 6 seed:
(6) O.N. Thugs - 141.87
(2) Superbowl Shuffling - 107.05
I'm looking for my 2nd UPL Football crown, after losing deep in the playoffs the last 3 seasons. I'm done for the week, and hold a 34.82 point lead. Superbowl Shuffling has one player remaining. Donovan McNabb, QB for the Eagles, who is "projected" to have 27.41 points.
There's a reasonable chance that we'll have 4 sets of eyes watching the TV with more interest than any sane person normally would.
Who am I rooting for? Kevin Kolb.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
But more to the point of this post, fantasy football has this incredible ability to make the mundane into something spectacular.
For example, this week's Monday night matchup is a brick by most normal, sane views. Browns vs. Eagles, two teams that are rumbling about firing their coaches. These are teams that have gone through QB carousels (sort of) - the Browns due to poor play, and then two injuries, and the Eagles due to poor play and lack of knowledge regarding overtime rules.
But this game is a pivotal one in the UPL Football semifinals. Coming into Monday's game:
1 vs. 4 seed:
(4) I Giocatori - 108.43
(1) IAmJabrone - 128.08
The Jabrones are looking for their first UPL Football crown, as well as the 2nd leg of the Roland Slam. They are done for the week and have a 19.65 point edge on I Giocatori, who is the most successful UPL Football franchise, with 4 championships already. The only player left to go for I Giocatori? Brian Westbrook, star running back for the Eagles, who is "projected" by Yahoo! to have 27.41 points.
2 vs. 6 seed:
(6) O.N. Thugs - 141.87
(2) Superbowl Shuffling - 107.05
I'm looking for my 2nd UPL Football crown, after losing deep in the playoffs the last 3 seasons. I'm done for the week, and hold a 34.82 point lead. Superbowl Shuffling has one player remaining. Donovan McNabb, QB for the Eagles, who is "projected" to have 27.41 points.
There's a reasonable chance that we'll have 4 sets of eyes watching the TV with more interest than any sane person normally would.
Who am I rooting for? Kevin Kolb.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Kiss of Death
I was looking through some old UPL Blog archives. Okay, that's not entirely true. I was going back to put labels on old postings because I'm feeling a little OCD. But in any case, I came across this gem of a post.
Basically, look at what I wrote back in July:
"This is why the most successful team in UPL Football prefers to draft Peyton Manning first...
Why? Think of it this way. Sure, you know that there probably will be 2 or 3 QB's that will perform equal to Peyton. Are you sure who it will be? Do you want to gamble a 3rd or 4th round pick on Big Ben (last year, great bet - 2 seasons ago, not so much)? How about Brett Favre (last year, great bet - 2 season ago, not so much)? Carson Palmer (probably one of the more sure things, actually)? Tom Brady (also puts up good numbers in the UPL, since we value accuracy)? Matt Hasselback? Marc Bulger? Derek Anderson? I don't know. What's the value of that certainty? And more importantly, do you want to entrust a high pick on that chance? Not saying that this is the right strategy, but this is the mindset that you probably see with folks who draft Peyton in the first round. And in the UPL, that has been a historically strong strategy."
As I read through the list of names that I threw in there, all I can think is, "Yikes." Let's see. Brett, still standing in NY, but stats are definitely off, though is is currently #8 in QB points this season. But after that? Big Ben is 21st. And everyone else I listed has been hurt or benched. These were all guys who were Pro Bowl players, recently, I believe. It's like every person I named was cursed. Brady - played for less than a quarter. Carson - missed the last 4 games, and may be out for the season. Hasselbeck - injured all season. Bulger - benched/terrible this year. Derek Anderson - bad numbers and benched. Big Ben - bad numbers/hurt.
More to the point, the top 2 QB's this year so far are Kurt Warner and Drew Brees, and then there's a gap to #3 and #4 (Jay Cutler and Phillip Rivers), and then another gap to #5-7 (Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb, and Peyton Manning).
Of that group, Brees figured to be pretty good. And McNabb has been historically good. Rivers would've probably been a solid choice before the season. Warner would've been a big risk as your lead QB. Ditto for Cutler and Rodgers. Even if you had good feelings about them, you probably take them as your 2nd QB.
Before the season, if you take the QB's I listed (Big Ben, Favre, Palmer, Brady, Hasselbeck, Bulger, and Derek Anderson), and put them on a list with Cutler, Rivers, Warner, Brees, McNabb, and Aaron Rodgers, and then chose at random, you'd basically have 7 good seasons and 6 bricks. That's a lot of risk at a position where you need points. And if you look at the order in which the top 12 QB's were drafted in the UPL this year:
Brady - Peyton - Romo - Brees - Carson - Derek Anderson - Big Ben - Hasselbeck - McNabb - Garrard - Schaub - Bulger.
You see that only 3 of those 12 (Peyton, Brees, McNabb) have been good, Garrad has been reasonable, and Romo/Schaub have been good when healthy (and will be back). My original post wasn't meant to predict doom for all of those QB's. In fact, I wrote the post back in July, expecting that about most of the QB's that I listed would be studs, but that you weren't sure who they were going to be. But I ended up souding a little prophetic when talking about as close to a sure thing as you can get at the QB spot, in Peyton Manning, who I managed to draft.
Don't get me wrong. My team's got some issues this year, but I'm really glad to have a sure thing like Peyton as my QB (particularly since he was a 2nd rounder this year). In fact, I'm so glad to have him that I've been starting him over Kurt Warner, the highest point scorer in fantasy. Go figure. But what's killing me is this Joseph Addai character, whoever the hell he is, and the corpse of Marvin Harrison. But I have a suspicion that the Colts will get things in order, and make a run, just in time for the UPL playoffs...
Update, 11/18 - It appears that Gregg Easterbrook agrees: "As for the Colts, Peyton Manning is hot, Joseph Addai and Marvin Harrison are back -- I'd look out for these guys."
Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Basically, look at what I wrote back in July:
"This is why the most successful team in UPL Football prefers to draft Peyton Manning first...
Why? Think of it this way. Sure, you know that there probably will be 2 or 3 QB's that will perform equal to Peyton. Are you sure who it will be? Do you want to gamble a 3rd or 4th round pick on Big Ben (last year, great bet - 2 seasons ago, not so much)? How about Brett Favre (last year, great bet - 2 season ago, not so much)? Carson Palmer (probably one of the more sure things, actually)? Tom Brady (also puts up good numbers in the UPL, since we value accuracy)? Matt Hasselback? Marc Bulger? Derek Anderson? I don't know. What's the value of that certainty? And more importantly, do you want to entrust a high pick on that chance? Not saying that this is the right strategy, but this is the mindset that you probably see with folks who draft Peyton in the first round. And in the UPL, that has been a historically strong strategy."
As I read through the list of names that I threw in there, all I can think is, "Yikes." Let's see. Brett, still standing in NY, but stats are definitely off, though is is currently #8 in QB points this season. But after that? Big Ben is 21st. And everyone else I listed has been hurt or benched. These were all guys who were Pro Bowl players, recently, I believe. It's like every person I named was cursed. Brady - played for less than a quarter. Carson - missed the last 4 games, and may be out for the season. Hasselbeck - injured all season. Bulger - benched/terrible this year. Derek Anderson - bad numbers and benched. Big Ben - bad numbers/hurt.
More to the point, the top 2 QB's this year so far are Kurt Warner and Drew Brees, and then there's a gap to #3 and #4 (Jay Cutler and Phillip Rivers), and then another gap to #5-7 (Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb, and Peyton Manning).
Of that group, Brees figured to be pretty good. And McNabb has been historically good. Rivers would've probably been a solid choice before the season. Warner would've been a big risk as your lead QB. Ditto for Cutler and Rodgers. Even if you had good feelings about them, you probably take them as your 2nd QB.
Before the season, if you take the QB's I listed (Big Ben, Favre, Palmer, Brady, Hasselbeck, Bulger, and Derek Anderson), and put them on a list with Cutler, Rivers, Warner, Brees, McNabb, and Aaron Rodgers, and then chose at random, you'd basically have 7 good seasons and 6 bricks. That's a lot of risk at a position where you need points. And if you look at the order in which the top 12 QB's were drafted in the UPL this year:
Brady - Peyton - Romo - Brees - Carson - Derek Anderson - Big Ben - Hasselbeck - McNabb - Garrard - Schaub - Bulger.
You see that only 3 of those 12 (Peyton, Brees, McNabb) have been good, Garrad has been reasonable, and Romo/Schaub have been good when healthy (and will be back). My original post wasn't meant to predict doom for all of those QB's. In fact, I wrote the post back in July, expecting that about most of the QB's that I listed would be studs, but that you weren't sure who they were going to be. But I ended up souding a little prophetic when talking about as close to a sure thing as you can get at the QB spot, in Peyton Manning, who I managed to draft.
Don't get me wrong. My team's got some issues this year, but I'm really glad to have a sure thing like Peyton as my QB (particularly since he was a 2nd rounder this year). In fact, I'm so glad to have him that I've been starting him over Kurt Warner, the highest point scorer in fantasy. Go figure. But what's killing me is this Joseph Addai character, whoever the hell he is, and the corpse of Marvin Harrison. But I have a suspicion that the Colts will get things in order, and make a run, just in time for the UPL playoffs...
Update, 11/18 - It appears that Gregg Easterbrook agrees: "As for the Colts, Peyton Manning is hot, Joseph Addai and Marvin Harrison are back -- I'd look out for these guys."
Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
10 Days In: A Hypothetical Re-Draft
So, my last post was sort of an "Anatomy of an O.N. Thug Draft." And already, I'm second-guessing some of my picks.
Which leads to an interesting question. Just a bit into the new season, if we were going to re-draft, what players would go much earlier? I mean, obviously, D-Wade shouldn't fall to 9. But aside from that.
I think that Derrick Rose doesn't last past the 4th round if we re-draft, and I'd seriously consider taking him in 3rd, maybe even into the late 2nd. I think that I'd have him rated at 21 or 22 (right around Brandon Roy and Joe Johnson). I don't know if I'd take him over Brandon Roy with the 28th pick, but if he gets to me in the 4th at 39 overall, there's no way he goes past.
O.J. Mayo also gets boosted up, probably into the 5th/6th round, up from the 90th pick.
Rudy Fernandez goes off no later than the 7th round, much higher than the 152nd pick
Spencer Hawes gets drafted in the 9th/10th round, up from the 151st pick.
Travis Outlaw probably goes a couple rounds earlier, instead of in the 12th round.
Roger Mason and Marc Gasol gets drafted, rather than go FA.
What do you guys think? And who just went too high in the draft? Elton Brand comes to mind. Maybe Pau Gasol.
Anyway, this will be a fun post to revisit over the years - if the keeper draft were being held now (whenever that is), what would the order be?
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Which leads to an interesting question. Just a bit into the new season, if we were going to re-draft, what players would go much earlier? I mean, obviously, D-Wade shouldn't fall to 9. But aside from that.
I think that Derrick Rose doesn't last past the 4th round if we re-draft, and I'd seriously consider taking him in 3rd, maybe even into the late 2nd. I think that I'd have him rated at 21 or 22 (right around Brandon Roy and Joe Johnson). I don't know if I'd take him over Brandon Roy with the 28th pick, but if he gets to me in the 4th at 39 overall, there's no way he goes past.
O.J. Mayo also gets boosted up, probably into the 5th/6th round, up from the 90th pick.
Rudy Fernandez goes off no later than the 7th round, much higher than the 152nd pick
Spencer Hawes gets drafted in the 9th/10th round, up from the 151st pick.
Travis Outlaw probably goes a couple rounds earlier, instead of in the 12th round.
Roger Mason and Marc Gasol gets drafted, rather than go FA.
What do you guys think? And who just went too high in the draft? Elton Brand comes to mind. Maybe Pau Gasol.
Anyway, this will be a fun post to revisit over the years - if the keeper draft were being held now (whenever that is), what would the order be?
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Monday, November 10, 2008
The Most Important Draft in the History of the UPL
Nope, not hyperbole.
We had the most important draft in the history of the UPL last week, when we drafted our teams for the first season of UPL Basketball, keeper edition. Re went with a roster of 14 players, of which 8 will be kept. This meant that a lot of thinking had to be done about how to craft a roster that both had a chance to win this year, and could be successful in the years to come.
Or, if you're like C-Lauff, you just rolled out of bed and drafted, and hoped for the best. Though that is my normal draft strategy, I actually spent about an hour and a half pre-ranking players, sort of loosely. My strategy was basically to put players into tiers of similar players, and then sort the tiers. Normally, this isn't necessary, as I can sort of feel my way through a draft, and try to find value. But with the premium on getting young players, rather than the grizzled veterans that I usually go with, I had to do my homework. Complicating matters was a random draft so you weren't quite sure you were going to end up, resulting in the need to actually rank players somewhat specifically. I also noted that the Yahoo! ranks had a bunch of sleepers down in the draft (since the ranks are influenced by injury, and are based on this year). I moved them up a little bit, but not necessarily to their true value.
Going into the draft, my pre-rank top 11 (we had 11 teams in the league) looked like this:
1. LeBron James
2. Chris Paul
3. Kobe Bryant
4. Dwyane Wade
5. Amare Stoudemire
6. Chris Bosh
7. Deron Williams
8. Dwight Howard
9. Carlos Boozer
10. Shawn Marion
11. Tim Duncan
Some random thoughts:
I thought that the top 5 names were pretty firmly entrenched in the everyone's mind, with LeBron and CP3 virtual locks at 1 and 2. I thought that you'd have to be nuts to take anyone but LeBron first.
If I didn't get a top 3, I was really wanting to get the 7th pick so I could get Deron.
So, the draft starts up, and I realize that I'm picking 6, which I was sort of happy with. And immediately, we hear Westy complaining that he's picking last, which sort of also made me happy :-) But my issue was that I was going to have access to D-Will, in all likelihood (would've been shocking had I not), and have to make the choice to take him over Chris Bosh, who qualifies at PF and C, shoots well from the field, scores a lot, rebounds, and blocks shots. I think that taking Deron is a slight homer pick, but I justified it by saying to myself that I now get to root for Deron for the rest of his career.
And then the draft starts.
The actual picks went like this:
CP3 goes off the board before LeBron. I thought that was insane, but could be justified. 4th picks goes Amare over D-Wade. Not shocking. Same story as my description of Chris Bosh, over D-Will, as above. And then a doozy hits. Dirk gets (I think) autodrafted at 5, which means that I have access to D-Wade, who I had at 4, overall, and I had a bit of a gap between the top 4 and the next tier. Yikes. If I go strictly logically, then I have to pick D-Wade.
Yep. I'm a homer. I couldn't leave D-Will on the board. And it's turned out that his ankle injury is a little more serious, so he won't play for the next week or two, meaning that he's going to miss a dozen or so games to start the season. And you know what's sick? Even if you told me that was the case at the draft, I'd still go Deron at 6.
What was surprising to me was that D-Wade didn't go off the board right after, at 7, but Bosh is a fine pick. And a very, very lucky thing happens for C-Lauff. D-Wade falls into his lap at 9, when Elton Brand (???) goes off at 8. Yowza. Later on, we hear Westy comment that he had D-Wade ranked #2, overall. I don't know about that - I could see #3, over Kobe, but it's a hard sell to take D-Wade over either LeBron or CP3. But C-Lauff's luck continued on. I thought that KG at 11 was a little high, but Westy is a Minnesota guy, so going with an icon is understandable.
In any case, my pre-ranks for the next block of players looks like this:
12. Josh Smith
13. Dirk Nowitzki
14. Pau Gasol
15. Danny Granger
16. Kevin Garnett
17. Caron Butler
18. Yao Ming
19. Al Jefferson
20. Brandon Roy
21. Joe Johnson
22. Jermaine O'Neal
I was slated for the 17th pick, and with Duncan, Boozer, and Dwight Howard still on the board, I was looking at no worse that Danny Granger on my list. What I ended up with shocked the heck out of me. Also, note that the name that looks out of place is Jermaine O'Neal. I'm not sure why was that high. I think that I just left him there on accident, as I was moving players round in the Yahoo! pre-ranks. I did think that he was going to be rejuvenated with the change of scenery, so I was wanting to draft him later, maybe in the 5th or 6th. More on this later.
Westy matches his old Minnesota star to the future Minnesota star for whom he was traded: Big Al Jefferson. A bit of a stretch, I thought, but I could justify it, since he would've had zero chance at Jefferson in the 3rd round (picking at #33, overall). The strange pick is Baron Davis (?) goes off at 15, overall. Yao going 16 is understandable, I can see not drafting Tim Duncan, because of his age, but I'm shocked when both Carlos Boozer and Dwight Howard are still available for me at 17. And I'm left with another dilemma. Do I go Boozer (age 26) and his consistency? Or do I go with Dwight Howard (age 23, this season), his "Tremendous Upside Potential" and his terrible FT%?
I decide that consistency is needed, and that I was sick of being awful at FT%. I take Boozer at 18, a strong value, based on my pre-rankings, and was expecting Dwight Howard to go right afterwards, not all the way down to 20, overall. Seeing Andrew Bynum go off at 21 was a bit strange (42 on my board). At this point, the players on my board look like this (with the addition of the 5 players that I rated in the top 22, and players already taken, in bold).
11. Tim Duncan
14. Pau Gasol
20. Brandon Roy
21. Joe Johnson
22. Jermaine O'Neal
23. Tony Parker
24. Tyson Chandler
25. Elton Brand
26. Baron Davis
27. Carmelo Anthony
28. Marcus Camby
29. Andre Iguodala
30. Steve Nash
31. Jose Calderon
32. Allen Iverson
33. Chauncey Billups
Nothing terribly surprising, though I did move Tony Parker and Tyson Chandler up quite a bit from their Yahoo! rankings, since I was targeting those guys.
Nothing really shocking. I thought that Camby at 23 may have been a bit early. Rashard Lewis at 24 is a stretch, and Tim Duncan at 25 is serious value. I'm left with Brandon Roy or Joe Johnson (20 and 21 in my rankings) available at 28. For once, I stick with my pre-ranks, and go Brandon Roy. I thought that Rudy Gay at 29 was a little early, same for Calderon at 30, and I had Kevin Martin at 70, so I was shocked to see him go that early.
My next tier of pre-ranks:
22. Jermaine O'Neal
23. Tony Parker
24. Tyson Chandler
27. Carmelo Anthony
34. Antawn Jamison
35. Vince Carter
36. Tracy McGrady
37. Paul Pierce
38. Jason Richardson
39. Rashard Lewis
40. Rudy Gay
41. Jamal Crawford
42. Andrew Bynum
43. Andrei Kirilenko
44. David Lee
There was a block of vets, including VC, T-Mac, Pierce, J-Rich, Jamal Crawford, etc. who were all getting a little older, and still could score and play. Guys who could have been 2nd or 3rd round picks, if you were playing for this year, and weren't afraid of injury. As the round started, I was looking at either VC or T-Mac. I probably go T-Mac there, since he's a little younger.
Carmelo falls to C-Lauff at 36, which I think is pretty good value. And I'm picking at 39, with T-Mac, VC, or Jamison available. And at this point, I think that I can cheat more w/ Tony Parker, Tyson Chandler, and Jermaine O'Neal who Yahoo had ranked in the 60's or 70's. But instead of going w/ T-Mac, I decided that I wanted to pick a thug. Ron Artest (57 in my rankings) was about to go off, according to the Yahoo! ranks, so I went with him, since I wanted to lock in some steals for my team. I'm still figuring out why I went down that road, instead of just going w/ either T-Mac or VC, or just getting Tony Parker right there. But despite the second-guessing of my own logic, I'm strangely happy with having Ron Artest on my team.
Going into Round 5, my board looks like this (again, names in bold are already gone):
22. Jermaine O'Neal
23. Tony Parker
24. Tyson Chandler
36. Tracy McGrady
41. Jamal Crawford
43. Andrei Kirilenko
44. David Lee
45. Zach Randolph
46. David West
47. Andrew Bogut
48. Al Horford
49. Emeka Okafor
50. Samuel Dalembert
51. Michael Redd
52. Greg Oden
53. Kevin Durant
54. Michael Beasley
55. LaMarcus Aldridge
Here, I start to rate the rookies from last year and this year. As the draft continues, I find myself playing the Yahoo! rankings, rather than my own, since I see that most folks are following the Yahoo! ranks.
I roll w/ LaMarcus Aldridge, since he's about the go off the board, and I could use the consistent scoring at C. At this point, the draft was following the Yahoo! rankings pretty closely, so I sort of got rid of my list, and ran with the Yahoo! list.
The 6th round opens up like this:
My choices are pretty ample here. I'd love to get either Tyson Chandler, T-Mac, or Tony Parker here. Drafting one of the Knicks (Zach Randolph, Jamal Crawford, or David Lee) also came across my mind, as did going after one of the rookie/2nd years (D-Rose, OJ Mayo, Greg Oden). And I'm actually thinking pretty hard about this pick. I had just about talked myself into Tony Parker when time ran out on me. So my pick was the highest player left on my pre-rank.
Jermaine O'Neal.
Going into the draft, getting him in the 6th would've been OK, but I think that I could've waited another round or 2 and still gotten him. I wanted to get another PG to complement D-Will, and Parker would've fit the bill.
And of course, Eva Longoria's husband goes off the board right afterwards. Oh well.
Doh.
But the rest of the draft went well. My team looks like this, with the overall pick listed to the left, and some notable value picks, based on my ratings, listed on the right.
Now, so far, the team is looking solid. I've wandered up the standings w/out my #1 pick playing at all, which is sort of surprising. I was expecting to basically tread water for a little while, until Deron came back. Instead, the team looks good, and will be in great shape when Monta Ellis comes back in a couple months (note - his injury is a freak injury, not a chronic one, and if he's healthy coming into the season he's probably a top 40 pick in this draft).
I ended up dropping Chris Duhon, and going with Nate Robinson, who seems to score a little more (and get more steals). But other than that, my current roster is what I drafted (though there was a little turbulance along the way). I'm a little weak in rebounding right now, but part of that is missing Tyson Chandler for a couple games. Also, once Deron gets back to stabilize my assist numbers, I'll be able to rotate more bigs into my UTIL slots. But, things are looking alright for the future of the O.N. Thugs.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
We had the most important draft in the history of the UPL last week, when we drafted our teams for the first season of UPL Basketball, keeper edition. Re went with a roster of 14 players, of which 8 will be kept. This meant that a lot of thinking had to be done about how to craft a roster that both had a chance to win this year, and could be successful in the years to come.
Or, if you're like C-Lauff, you just rolled out of bed and drafted, and hoped for the best. Though that is my normal draft strategy, I actually spent about an hour and a half pre-ranking players, sort of loosely. My strategy was basically to put players into tiers of similar players, and then sort the tiers. Normally, this isn't necessary, as I can sort of feel my way through a draft, and try to find value. But with the premium on getting young players, rather than the grizzled veterans that I usually go with, I had to do my homework. Complicating matters was a random draft so you weren't quite sure you were going to end up, resulting in the need to actually rank players somewhat specifically. I also noted that the Yahoo! ranks had a bunch of sleepers down in the draft (since the ranks are influenced by injury, and are based on this year). I moved them up a little bit, but not necessarily to their true value.
Going into the draft, my pre-rank top 11 (we had 11 teams in the league) looked like this:
1. LeBron James
2. Chris Paul
3. Kobe Bryant
4. Dwyane Wade
5. Amare Stoudemire
6. Chris Bosh
7. Deron Williams
8. Dwight Howard
9. Carlos Boozer
10. Shawn Marion
11. Tim Duncan
Some random thoughts:
I thought that the top 5 names were pretty firmly entrenched in the everyone's mind, with LeBron and CP3 virtual locks at 1 and 2. I thought that you'd have to be nuts to take anyone but LeBron first.
If I didn't get a top 3, I was really wanting to get the 7th pick so I could get Deron.
So, the draft starts up, and I realize that I'm picking 6, which I was sort of happy with. And immediately, we hear Westy complaining that he's picking last, which sort of also made me happy :-) But my issue was that I was going to have access to D-Will, in all likelihood (would've been shocking had I not), and have to make the choice to take him over Chris Bosh, who qualifies at PF and C, shoots well from the field, scores a lot, rebounds, and blocks shots. I think that taking Deron is a slight homer pick, but I justified it by saying to myself that I now get to root for Deron for the rest of his career.
And then the draft starts.
The actual picks went like this:
| Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Chris Paul | Sparty Rules |
| 2. | LeBron James | European Sel... |
| 3. | Kobe Bryant | Dribbling Balls |
| 4. | Amare Stoudemire | Phatsnapper |
| 5. | Dirk Nowitzki | chowtime |
CP3 goes off the board before LeBron. I thought that was insane, but could be justified. 4th picks goes Amare over D-Wade. Not shocking. Same story as my description of Chris Bosh, over D-Will, as above. And then a doozy hits. Dirk gets (I think) autodrafted at 5, which means that I have access to D-Wade, who I had at 4, overall, and I had a bit of a gap between the top 4 and the next tier. Yikes. If I go strictly logically, then I have to pick D-Wade.
| 6. | Deron Williams | O.N. Thugs |
| 7. | Chris Bosh | Love Timberw... |
| 8. | Elton Brand | Milwaukee Br... |
| 9. | Dwyane Wade | IamJabrone |
| 10. | Shawn Marion | Floor burns |
| 11. | Kevin Garnett | Westy's Ballers |
Yep. I'm a homer. I couldn't leave D-Will on the board. And it's turned out that his ankle injury is a little more serious, so he won't play for the next week or two, meaning that he's going to miss a dozen or so games to start the season. And you know what's sick? Even if you told me that was the case at the draft, I'd still go Deron at 6.
What was surprising to me was that D-Wade didn't go off the board right after, at 7, but Bosh is a fine pick. And a very, very lucky thing happens for C-Lauff. D-Wade falls into his lap at 9, when Elton Brand (???) goes off at 8. Yowza. Later on, we hear Westy comment that he had D-Wade ranked #2, overall. I don't know about that - I could see #3, over Kobe, but it's a hard sell to take D-Wade over either LeBron or CP3. But C-Lauff's luck continued on. I thought that KG at 11 was a little high, but Westy is a Minnesota guy, so going with an icon is understandable.
In any case, my pre-ranks for the next block of players looks like this:
12. Josh Smith
13. Dirk Nowitzki
14. Pau Gasol
15. Danny Granger
16. Kevin Garnett
17. Caron Butler
18. Yao Ming
19. Al Jefferson
20. Brandon Roy
21. Joe Johnson
22. Jermaine O'Neal
I was slated for the 17th pick, and with Duncan, Boozer, and Dwight Howard still on the board, I was looking at no worse that Danny Granger on my list. What I ended up with shocked the heck out of me. Also, note that the name that looks out of place is Jermaine O'Neal. I'm not sure why was that high. I think that I just left him there on accident, as I was moving players round in the Yahoo! pre-ranks. I did think that he was going to be rejuvenated with the change of scenery, so I was wanting to draft him later, maybe in the 5th or 6th. More on this later.
| Round 2 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Al Jefferson | Westy's Ballers |
| 2. | Caron Butler | Floor burns |
| 3. | Josh Smith | IamJabrone |
| 4. | Baron Davis | Milwaukee Br... |
| 5. | Yao Ming | Love Timberw... |
Westy matches his old Minnesota star to the future Minnesota star for whom he was traded: Big Al Jefferson. A bit of a stretch, I thought, but I could justify it, since he would've had zero chance at Jefferson in the 3rd round (picking at #33, overall). The strange pick is Baron Davis (?) goes off at 15, overall. Yao going 16 is understandable, I can see not drafting Tim Duncan, because of his age, but I'm shocked when both Carlos Boozer and Dwight Howard are still available for me at 17. And I'm left with another dilemma. Do I go Boozer (age 26) and his consistency? Or do I go with Dwight Howard (age 23, this season), his "Tremendous Upside Potential" and his terrible FT%?
| 6. | Carlos Boozer | O.N. Thugs |
| 7. | Danny Granger | chowtime |
| 8. | Allen Iverson | Phatsnapper |
| 9. | Dwight Howard | Dribbling Balls |
| 10. | Andrew Bynum | European Sel... |
| 11. | Chauncey Billups | Sparty Rules |
I decide that consistency is needed, and that I was sick of being awful at FT%. I take Boozer at 18, a strong value, based on my pre-rankings, and was expecting Dwight Howard to go right afterwards, not all the way down to 20, overall. Seeing Andrew Bynum go off at 21 was a bit strange (42 on my board). At this point, the players on my board look like this (with the addition of the 5 players that I rated in the top 22, and players already taken, in bold).
11. Tim Duncan
14. Pau Gasol
20. Brandon Roy
21. Joe Johnson
22. Jermaine O'Neal
23. Tony Parker
24. Tyson Chandler
25. Elton Brand
26. Baron Davis
27. Carmelo Anthony
28. Marcus Camby
29. Andre Iguodala
30. Steve Nash
31. Jose Calderon
32. Allen Iverson
33. Chauncey Billups
Nothing terribly surprising, though I did move Tony Parker and Tyson Chandler up quite a bit from their Yahoo! rankings, since I was targeting those guys.
| Round 3 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Marcus Camby | Sparty Rules |
| 2. | Rashard Lewis | European Sel... |
| 3. | Tim Duncan | Dribbling Balls |
| 4. | Steve Nash | Phatsnapper |
| 5. | Pau Gasol | chowtime |
| 6. | Brandon Roy | O.N. Thugs |
| 7. | Rudy Gay | Love Timberw... |
| 8. | Jose Calderon | Milwaukee Br... |
| 9. | Joe Johnson | IamJabrone |
| 10. | Kevin Martin | Floor burns |
| 11. | Andre Iguodala | Westy's Ballers |
Nothing really shocking. I thought that Camby at 23 may have been a bit early. Rashard Lewis at 24 is a stretch, and Tim Duncan at 25 is serious value. I'm left with Brandon Roy or Joe Johnson (20 and 21 in my rankings) available at 28. For once, I stick with my pre-ranks, and go Brandon Roy. I thought that Rudy Gay at 29 was a little early, same for Calderon at 30, and I had Kevin Martin at 70, so I was shocked to see him go that early.
My next tier of pre-ranks:
22. Jermaine O'Neal
23. Tony Parker
24. Tyson Chandler
27. Carmelo Anthony
34. Antawn Jamison
35. Vince Carter
36. Tracy McGrady
37. Paul Pierce
38. Jason Richardson
39. Rashard Lewis
40. Rudy Gay
41. Jamal Crawford
42. Andrew Bynum
43. Andrei Kirilenko
44. David Lee
There was a block of vets, including VC, T-Mac, Pierce, J-Rich, Jamal Crawford, etc. who were all getting a little older, and still could score and play. Guys who could have been 2nd or 3rd round picks, if you were playing for this year, and weren't afraid of injury. As the round started, I was looking at either VC or T-Mac. I probably go T-Mac there, since he's a little younger.
| Round 4 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Paul Pierce | Westy's Ballers |
| 2. | David West | Floor burns |
| 3. | Carmelo Anthony | IamJabrone |
| 4. | Jason Richardson | Milwaukee Br... |
| 5. | Kevin Durant | Love Timberw... |
| 6. | Ron Artest | O.N. Thugs |
| 7. | Vince Carter | chowtime |
| 8. | Antawn Jamison | Phatsnapper |
| 9. | Jason Kidd | Dribbling Balls |
| 10. | Michael Redd | European Sel... |
| 11. | Rasheed Wallace | Sparty Rules |
Carmelo falls to C-Lauff at 36, which I think is pretty good value. And I'm picking at 39, with T-Mac, VC, or Jamison available. And at this point, I think that I can cheat more w/ Tony Parker, Tyson Chandler, and Jermaine O'Neal who Yahoo had ranked in the 60's or 70's. But instead of going w/ T-Mac, I decided that I wanted to pick a thug. Ron Artest (57 in my rankings) was about to go off, according to the Yahoo! ranks, so I went with him, since I wanted to lock in some steals for my team. I'm still figuring out why I went down that road, instead of just going w/ either T-Mac or VC, or just getting Tony Parker right there. But despite the second-guessing of my own logic, I'm strangely happy with having Ron Artest on my team.
Going into Round 5, my board looks like this (again, names in bold are already gone):
22. Jermaine O'Neal
23. Tony Parker
24. Tyson Chandler
36. Tracy McGrady
41. Jamal Crawford
43. Andrei Kirilenko
44. David Lee
45. Zach Randolph
46. David West
47. Andrew Bogut
48. Al Horford
49. Emeka Okafor
50. Samuel Dalembert
51. Michael Redd
52. Greg Oden
53. Kevin Durant
54. Michael Beasley
55. LaMarcus Aldridge
Here, I start to rate the rookies from last year and this year. As the draft continues, I find myself playing the Yahoo! rankings, rather than my own, since I see that most folks are following the Yahoo! ranks.
| Round 5 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Hedo Turkoglu | Sparty Rules |
| 2. | Gerald Wallace | European Sel... |
| 3. | Corey Maggette | Dribbling Balls |
| 4. | Mike Dunleavy | Phatsnapper |
| 5. | Chris Kaman | chowtime |
| 6. | LaMarcus Aldridge | O.N. Thugs |
| 7. | Josh Howard | Love Timberw... |
| 8. | Mehmet Okur | Milwaukee Br... |
| 9. | Al Horford | IamJabrone |
| 10. | Mo Williams | Floor burns |
| 11. | Devin Harris | Westy's Ballers |
I roll w/ LaMarcus Aldridge, since he's about the go off the board, and I could use the consistent scoring at C. At this point, the draft was following the Yahoo! rankings pretty closely, so I sort of got rid of my list, and ran with the Yahoo! list.
The 6th round opens up like this:
| Round 6 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Mike Miller | Westy's Ballers |
| 2. | Lamar Odom | Floor burns |
| 3. | Michael Beasley | IamJabrone |
| 4. | Andris Biedrins | Milwaukee Br... |
| 5. | Andre Miller | Love Timberw... |
My choices are pretty ample here. I'd love to get either Tyson Chandler, T-Mac, or Tony Parker here. Drafting one of the Knicks (Zach Randolph, Jamal Crawford, or David Lee) also came across my mind, as did going after one of the rookie/2nd years (D-Rose, OJ Mayo, Greg Oden). And I'm actually thinking pretty hard about this pick. I had just about talked myself into Tony Parker when time ran out on me. So my pick was the highest player left on my pre-rank.
Jermaine O'Neal.
Going into the draft, getting him in the 6th would've been OK, but I think that I could've waited another round or 2 and still gotten him. I wanted to get another PG to complement D-Will, and Parker would've fit the bill.
And of course, Eva Longoria's husband goes off the board right afterwards. Oh well.
| 6. | Jermaine O'Neal | O.N. Thugs |
| 7. | Tony Parker | chowtime |
| 8. | Ray Allen | Phatsnapper |
| 9. | Greg Oden | Dribbling Balls |
| 10. | Tracy McGrady | European Sel... |
| 11. | Brad Miller | Sparty Rules |
Doh.
But the rest of the draft went well. My team looks like this, with the overall pick listed to the left, and some notable value picks, based on my ratings, listed on the right.
| O.N. Thugs | My Rating | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | (6) | Deron Williams | ||
| 2. | (17) | Carlos Boozer | (9) | |
| 3. | (28) | Brandon Roy | (20) | |
| 4. | (39) | Ron Artest | ||
| 5. | (50) | LaMarcus Aldridge | ||
| 6. | (61) | Jermaine O'Neal | (22) | |
| 7. | (72) | Tyson Chandler | (24) | |
| 8. | (83) | Richard Jefferson | ||
| 9. | (94) | Monta Ellis | (70) | |
| 10. | (105) | Ronnie Brewer | (87) | |
| 11. | (116) | Ben Gordon | (74) | |
| 12. | (127) | Chris Duhon | ||
| 13. | (138) | Darrell Arthur | (75) | |
| 14. | (149) | Yi Jianlian | (94) | |
Now, so far, the team is looking solid. I've wandered up the standings w/out my #1 pick playing at all, which is sort of surprising. I was expecting to basically tread water for a little while, until Deron came back. Instead, the team looks good, and will be in great shape when Monta Ellis comes back in a couple months (note - his injury is a freak injury, not a chronic one, and if he's healthy coming into the season he's probably a top 40 pick in this draft).
UPL - Isiah Thomas Hotline
| Rank | Team | Points | Pts Change | Waiver | Moves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Dribbling Balls | 72 | 0.5 | 8 | - | |
| 2. | O.N. Thugs | 70 | 5 | 6 | 5 | |
| 3. | European Sellout | 67.5 | 1.5 | 9 | 1 | |
| 4. | Phatsnapper | 62 | -9 | 11 | 1 | |
| 5. | Sparty Rules | 59.5 | 3 | 10 | - | |
| 5. | Milwaukee Bricks | 59.5 | -2 | 4 | 1 | |
| 7. | Floor burns | 57 | -2 | 2 | - | |
| 8. | chowtime | 55 | 0 | 7 | 2 | |
| 9. | IamJabrone | 53 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 10. | Love Timberwolves | 52.5 | -1 | 5 | - | |
| 11. | Westy's Ballers | 52 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
I ended up dropping Chris Duhon, and going with Nate Robinson, who seems to score a little more (and get more steals). But other than that, my current roster is what I drafted (though there was a little turbulance along the way). I'm a little weak in rebounding right now, but part of that is missing Tyson Chandler for a couple games. Also, once Deron gets back to stabilize my assist numbers, I'll be able to rotate more bigs into my UTIL slots. But, things are looking alright for the future of the O.N. Thugs.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Friday, October 17, 2008
Playing for Keeps
I think that the UPL is moving in a new direction, at least for basketball and baseball. Keeper leagues. Yahoo is giving us some new features, so starting with this upcoming season's rosters, we'll be using a keeper format.
Basically, the idea here it so promote a longer term perspective for the UPL games. By keeping much of the same roster, you force the balancing of short and long term goals (winning this season, versus building for upcoming seasons). Hopefully this keeps more owners returning, we'll have more of an incentive to play out the entire season, making each season more fun.
The tentative plan for basketball is to expand from a 14 man roster to a 16 man roster, with 10 keepers per season. Baseball would be similar, expanding from a 22 man roster to a 26 man roster, keeping 18. So going into the following season, you'd have your core roster, and your draft would serve to a) incorporate rookies, and b) round out the rest of your roster. Of course, the actual numbers for both leagues are up in the air, but those numbers seem about right, if you want to aim for continuity for the teams, while still incorporating fresh talent.
The draft order is still up for discussion. Do you just go reverse order of finish? Or do you draft in the order of finish? Maybe you try to balance it out and reward excellence, and have the champ draft first, followed by the last place, then the 2nd to last? Or the other way around, and have the 2nd place team draft first, the 3rd place team draft 2nd, except for the champ, who drafts last?
I'm not exactly sure where I stand on that one, actually.
This may allow for interesting possibilities. Maybe someone could trade one of their keeper slots for a player that could help now. And this probably needs to lead to some rules regarding trading players and then giving them back after the season.
In any case, I think that this is a fun direction for the UPL. Comments with regard to roster sizes, the number of keepers, and draft format are very much appreciated.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Basically, the idea here it so promote a longer term perspective for the UPL games. By keeping much of the same roster, you force the balancing of short and long term goals (winning this season, versus building for upcoming seasons). Hopefully this keeps more owners returning, we'll have more of an incentive to play out the entire season, making each season more fun.
The tentative plan for basketball is to expand from a 14 man roster to a 16 man roster, with 10 keepers per season. Baseball would be similar, expanding from a 22 man roster to a 26 man roster, keeping 18. So going into the following season, you'd have your core roster, and your draft would serve to a) incorporate rookies, and b) round out the rest of your roster. Of course, the actual numbers for both leagues are up in the air, but those numbers seem about right, if you want to aim for continuity for the teams, while still incorporating fresh talent.
The draft order is still up for discussion. Do you just go reverse order of finish? Or do you draft in the order of finish? Maybe you try to balance it out and reward excellence, and have the champ draft first, followed by the last place, then the 2nd to last? Or the other way around, and have the 2nd place team draft first, the 3rd place team draft 2nd, except for the champ, who drafts last?
I'm not exactly sure where I stand on that one, actually.
This may allow for interesting possibilities. Maybe someone could trade one of their keeper slots for a player that could help now. And this probably needs to lead to some rules regarding trading players and then giving them back after the season.
In any case, I think that this is a fun direction for the UPL. Comments with regard to roster sizes, the number of keepers, and draft format are very much appreciated.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Friday, October 3, 2008
2008 UPL Baseball Awards
One tradition that I'm bringing over to The UPL Blog are the UPL Awards that I'll throw on the league message boards for discussion at the end of the season.
All-UPL First Team:
C: Joe Mauer (ISSC)
1B: Albert Pujols (O.N. Thugs)
2B: Chase Utley (O.N. Thugs)
3B: David Wright (IAmJabrone)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (Phatsnapper)
OF: Manny Ramirez (Westy's Slugs)
OF: Matt Holliday (IAmJabrone)
OF: Carlos Beltran (Milwaukee Whiffers)
UTIL: Josh Hamilton (IAmJabrone)
UTIL: Ryan Howard (Westy's Slugs)
SP: Roy Halladay (IAm Jabrone)
SP: Tim Lincecum (JimmyDix)
SP: Cliff Lee (Milwaukee Whiffers)
SP: C.C. Sabathia (Phatsnapper)
SP: Ryan Dempster (Black Sox)
RP: Mariano Rivera (ISSC)
RP: Joakim Soria ('90 Reds)
RP: Joe Nathan (O.N. Thugs)
RP: Francisco Rodriguez (Cheeseheads)
All-UPL Second Team:
C: Russell Martin (MudSkippers)
1B: Lance Berkman (Black Sox)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (ISSC)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (Black Sox)
SS: Jose Reyes (Whiffers)
OF: Grady Sizemore (IAmJabrone)
OF: Ryan Ludwick ('90 Reds)
OF: Ryan Braun (Cheeseheads)
UTIL: Mark Teixeira (Cheeseheads)
UTIL: Kevin Youkilis (ISSCC)
SP: Johan Santana (Westy's Slugs)
SP: Brandon Webb (O.N. Thugs)
SP: Dan Haren (O.N. Thugs)
SP: Cole Hamels (Phatsnapper)
SP: Ervin Santana (Cheeseheads)
RP: Jonathan Papelbon (Cheeseheads)
RP: Brad Lidge (O.N. Thugs)
RP: Jose Valverde (Black Sox)
RP: Bobby Jenks (ISSC)
UPL Offensive ROY: Evan Longoria (JimmyDix) and Geovany Soto (IAmJabrone)
UPL Pitching ROY: Jose Arredondo (Benver Droncos)
UPL Comeback Hitter: Carlos Quentin ('90 Reds)
UPL Comeback Pitcher: Cliff Lee (Milwaukee Whiffers)
UPL Offensive POY: Albert Pujols (O.N. Thugs)
UPL Cy Young: Roy Halladay (IAmJabrone)
UPL Reliever of the Year: Mariano Rivera (ISSC)
UPL MVP: David Wright (IAmJabrone)
UPL Manager of the Year: IAmJabrone
As always, discuss away.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
All-UPL First Team:
C: Joe Mauer (ISSC)
1B: Albert Pujols (O.N. Thugs)
2B: Chase Utley (O.N. Thugs)
3B: David Wright (IAmJabrone)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (Phatsnapper)
OF: Manny Ramirez (Westy's Slugs)
OF: Matt Holliday (IAmJabrone)
OF: Carlos Beltran (Milwaukee Whiffers)
UTIL: Josh Hamilton (IAmJabrone)
UTIL: Ryan Howard (Westy's Slugs)
SP: Roy Halladay (IAm Jabrone)
SP: Tim Lincecum (JimmyDix)
SP: Cliff Lee (Milwaukee Whiffers)
SP: C.C. Sabathia (Phatsnapper)
SP: Ryan Dempster (Black Sox)
RP: Mariano Rivera (ISSC)
RP: Joakim Soria ('90 Reds)
RP: Joe Nathan (O.N. Thugs)
RP: Francisco Rodriguez (Cheeseheads)
All-UPL Second Team:
C: Russell Martin (MudSkippers)
1B: Lance Berkman (Black Sox)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (ISSC)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (Black Sox)
SS: Jose Reyes (Whiffers)
OF: Grady Sizemore (IAmJabrone)
OF: Ryan Ludwick ('90 Reds)
OF: Ryan Braun (Cheeseheads)
UTIL: Mark Teixeira (Cheeseheads)
UTIL: Kevin Youkilis (ISSCC)
SP: Johan Santana (Westy's Slugs)
SP: Brandon Webb (O.N. Thugs)
SP: Dan Haren (O.N. Thugs)
SP: Cole Hamels (Phatsnapper)
SP: Ervin Santana (Cheeseheads)
RP: Jonathan Papelbon (Cheeseheads)
RP: Brad Lidge (O.N. Thugs)
RP: Jose Valverde (Black Sox)
RP: Bobby Jenks (ISSC)
UPL Offensive ROY: Evan Longoria (JimmyDix) and Geovany Soto (IAmJabrone)
UPL Pitching ROY: Jose Arredondo (Benver Droncos)
UPL Comeback Hitter: Carlos Quentin ('90 Reds)
UPL Comeback Pitcher: Cliff Lee (Milwaukee Whiffers)
UPL Offensive POY: Albert Pujols (O.N. Thugs)
UPL Cy Young: Roy Halladay (IAmJabrone)
UPL Reliever of the Year: Mariano Rivera (ISSC)
UPL MVP: David Wright (IAmJabrone)
UPL Manager of the Year: IAmJabrone
As always, discuss away.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Down the Stretch...
So, it's not exactly looking great on the scoreboard for the O.N. Thugs right now:
Here's the breakdown. With two days left in the season, I have to close out 5 points on the Jabrones. However, the 5 points aren't the toughest 5 points to net, since there are a lot of categories up for grabs. Each of these scenarios nets a point for me, with some ballpark odds on any of them happening:
-Whiffers make up 15 runs on Jabrone (100 to 1 shot)
-I make up 13 runs on ISSC (100 to 1)
-Black Sox make up 3 HR on Jabrone (6 to 1)
-I make up 7 RBI on Westy (3 to 1)
-I make up 3 SB on Westy (5 to 1)
-I make up 4 SB on Benver (6 to 1, but very correlated to above)
-Whiffers make up .002 in OBP on Jabrone (6 to 1)
-I make up 3 W on Jabrone (even - I'm loading up on starters this weekend)
-I make up 6 W on Westy (12 to 1)
-I make up 3 K on Jabrone (1 to 4)
-I make up 16K on JimmyDix (2 to 1)
-I make up 0.11 in ERA on ISSC (75 to 1)
-Whiffers make up 0.10 ERA on Jabrone (75 to 1)
-I make up 0.01 in WHIP on Benver (3 to 1)
Plus, I'm tied with JimmyDix in WHIP (even). And there are a couple points that the Jabrones can get (2 SV back from Cheeseheads, .003 SLG back from Whiffers and '90 Reds).
Legitimately, I have a shot. Figure that I'm about 40-60 to get my W's on Jabrones (2 point swing) and get my K's on Jabrones (another 2 points swing). That's 40-60 on 4 points, which leaves me 1 short. If I miss on the 4 points, this is all moot, but if I get the 4, then I've still got to get another point. If I get the 4 points, then I'm probably 2 to 1 to get a point from WHIP, 2 to 1 to get another point in K from JimmyDix, 3 to 1 to get a point in RBI from Westy, but I only need one of those to come through. So put it all together, and I'm giving myself around a 1 in 6 chance to tie, and a 1 in 12 chance to win.
So, the long and the short of it is, I need some luck if we're going to hunt for a Roland Slam this time year. Maybe I can invoke my secret commissioner powers to somehow bench certain team's hitters and pitchers the last couple days :-)
Update, 11:15pm, Saturday: Never mind. Bloody Saturday, I suppose we can call it. 4 starters. 2 L's, 2 ND's. All pretty much got lit. Oh well. Get 'em next year, I suppose.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
| Rank | Team | Points | Pts Change | Waiver | Moves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | IamJabrone | 115.5 | 0 | 8 | 68 | |
| 2. | O.N. Thugs | 110.5 | 0.5 | 12 | 82 | |
| 3. | IStillSuckCurveballs | 107 | 0 | 9 | 20 | |
| 4. | TheJimmyDixLongballs | 92.5 | -3.5 | 7 | 38 | |
| 5. | Milwaukee Whiffers | 89 | 0 | 4 | 22 | |
| 6. | '90 Reds | 88 | 3 | 2 | 54 | |
| 7. | Black Sox | 64 | 0 | 6 | 28 | |
| 8. | Phatsnapper | 62 | 1.5 | 1 | 9 | |
| 9. | Westy's Slugs | 57 | -1 | 11 | 78 | |
| 10. | Muddy Mud Skippers | 55.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 12 | |
| 10. | Cheeseheads | 55.5 | -0.5 | 5 | 25 | |
| 12. | Benver Droncos | 39.5 | 0.5 | 10 | 45 |
Here's the breakdown. With two days left in the season, I have to close out 5 points on the Jabrones. However, the 5 points aren't the toughest 5 points to net, since there are a lot of categories up for grabs. Each of these scenarios nets a point for me, with some ballpark odds on any of them happening:
-Whiffers make up 15 runs on Jabrone (100 to 1 shot)
-I make up 13 runs on ISSC (100 to 1)
-Black Sox make up 3 HR on Jabrone (6 to 1)
-I make up 7 RBI on Westy (3 to 1)
-I make up 3 SB on Westy (5 to 1)
-I make up 4 SB on Benver (6 to 1, but very correlated to above)
-Whiffers make up .002 in OBP on Jabrone (6 to 1)
-I make up 3 W on Jabrone (even - I'm loading up on starters this weekend)
-I make up 6 W on Westy (12 to 1)
-I make up 3 K on Jabrone (1 to 4)
-I make up 16K on JimmyDix (2 to 1)
-I make up 0.11 in ERA on ISSC (75 to 1)
-Whiffers make up 0.10 ERA on Jabrone (75 to 1)
-I make up 0.01 in WHIP on Benver (3 to 1)
Plus, I'm tied with JimmyDix in WHIP (even). And there are a couple points that the Jabrones can get (2 SV back from Cheeseheads, .003 SLG back from Whiffers and '90 Reds).
Legitimately, I have a shot. Figure that I'm about 40-60 to get my W's on Jabrones (2 point swing) and get my K's on Jabrones (another 2 points swing). That's 40-60 on 4 points, which leaves me 1 short. If I miss on the 4 points, this is all moot, but if I get the 4, then I've still got to get another point. If I get the 4 points, then I'm probably 2 to 1 to get a point from WHIP, 2 to 1 to get another point in K from JimmyDix, 3 to 1 to get a point in RBI from Westy, but I only need one of those to come through. So put it all together, and I'm giving myself around a 1 in 6 chance to tie, and a 1 in 12 chance to win.
So, the long and the short of it is, I need some luck if we're going to hunt for a Roland Slam this time year. Maybe I can invoke my secret commissioner powers to somehow bench certain team's hitters and pitchers the last couple days :-)
Update, 11:15pm, Saturday: Never mind. Bloody Saturday, I suppose we can call it. 4 starters. 2 L's, 2 ND's. All pretty much got lit. Oh well. Get 'em next year, I suppose.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Friday, September 19, 2008
Major League
In case you haven't noticed, and judging by the attendance, you haven't...
Interesting...
Three teams within 2.5 points of the lead. CJ with an outside shot at a miracle. The best part? 11 of the 12 teams are still checking their teams, updating their lineups. So, every game counts. Every game matters. How cool is that?
Happily, the UPL seems to have managers who will play out the string, unlike some other leagues. However, the bad part for yours truly is that anecdotal evidence (see bottom) suggests that one reason that the owners keep playing is to get me.
I suppose that every story needs a hero and villain. The problem is that people keep getting who's who confused.
We'll figure out who's who after Sept. 28.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
| Rank | Team | Points | Pts Change | Waiver | Moves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | IamJabrone | 111.5 | -4 | 8 | 63 | |
| 2. | O.N. Thugs | 109.5 | -0.5 | 12 | 73 | |
| 3. | IStillSuckCurveballs | 109 | 1 | 9 | 19 | |
| 4. | TheJimmyDixLongballs | 102 | 4.5 | 7 | 34 | |
| 5. | Milwaukee Whiffers | 87 | 0 | 4 | 22 | |
| 6. | '90 Reds | 84.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 47 | |
| 7. | Black Sox | 66.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 28 | |
| 8. | Phatsnapper | 63 | 3 | 1 | 9 | |
| 9. | Westy's Slugs | 57 | 0 | 11 | 73 | |
| 10. | Cheeseheads | 54.5 | -2.5 | 5 | 25 | |
| 11. | Muddy Mud Skippers | 54 | 0.5 | 3 | 12 | |
| 12. | Benver Droncos | 37.5 | -1 | 10 | 45 |
Interesting...
Three teams within 2.5 points of the lead. CJ with an outside shot at a miracle. The best part? 11 of the 12 teams are still checking their teams, updating their lineups. So, every game counts. Every game matters. How cool is that?
Happily, the UPL seems to have managers who will play out the string, unlike some other leagues. However, the bad part for yours truly is that anecdotal evidence (see bottom) suggests that one reason that the owners keep playing is to get me.
I suppose that every story needs a hero and villain. The problem is that people keep getting who's who confused.
We'll figure out who's who after Sept. 28.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Fantasy Karma - In Action
The Football Gods are angry with me and extracting their vengeance for my schadenfreude musings. I'm offically 0-2 and dead last in all leagues. The UPL is the only league that I really care about, and I botched the draft as much as one can botch a draft. Steve Smith. Tom Brady. Matt Hasselbeck and Carson Palmer. Ryan Grant. LT's 20 yard games.
Guess Roland was right.
Guess Roland was right.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Fantasy Sports Karma
I've had one of those weeks where I viewed morality in very utilitarian terms. These kinds of weeks scare me. Mostly because while musing about fantasy sports I asked myself if I would intentionally throw a game for a competitive advantage in the playoffs. Like a situation wherein two teams are on the bubble and facing elimination - but wherein one looks like it should be stronger on paper than its been doing - and I bench my starters to allow the "weaker" opponent to lock in a playoff spot and inconvenience the "stronger" team. The answer I arrived at was "maybe", depending on the context.
In a league like the UPL, with its bragging rights stakes and friendly league managers, I dont think I'd do it. While discussing it with Roland he related fears of karma. I'm more afraid of retribution. The UPL is at its core a gathering of friends from increasingly broad sections of life. It also goes on year-round, and there are too many times where cooperation between teams is vital for the chances of all involved. The risk v. reward factor of open mercenary behavior is skewed too far in the risk over a long timeline. It reminds me of listening to Roland complain that C-Lauff was too scared to be involved with any trades with him because of how it worked out during the 2007 baseball season - give and take doesn't work if you become a clear winner at the other persons expense every time. As Ozzie Guillen said of the recent beanball brouhaha between the Royals and White Sox: "Get ready for warnings. I signed a (long term) deal with this organization and we play (the UPLs) a lot."
In a money league of coworkers / random people? I'd throw the game in a heartbeat because I'd expect them to do the exact same thing if they thought of it. At its most negative I'd have to listen to a bunch of account managers bitch and whine at me, and since that's pretty much my job description already it doesn't really pack the same punch.
What are your guys thoughts? Is a little bit of purposeful schadenfreude ok?
In a league like the UPL, with its bragging rights stakes and friendly league managers, I dont think I'd do it. While discussing it with Roland he related fears of karma. I'm more afraid of retribution. The UPL is at its core a gathering of friends from increasingly broad sections of life. It also goes on year-round, and there are too many times where cooperation between teams is vital for the chances of all involved. The risk v. reward factor of open mercenary behavior is skewed too far in the risk over a long timeline. It reminds me of listening to Roland complain that C-Lauff was too scared to be involved with any trades with him because of how it worked out during the 2007 baseball season - give and take doesn't work if you become a clear winner at the other persons expense every time. As Ozzie Guillen said of the recent beanball brouhaha between the Royals and White Sox: "Get ready for warnings. I signed a (long term) deal with this organization and we play (the UPLs) a lot."
In a money league of coworkers / random people? I'd throw the game in a heartbeat because I'd expect them to do the exact same thing if they thought of it. At its most negative I'd have to listen to a bunch of account managers bitch and whine at me, and since that's pretty much my job description already it doesn't really pack the same punch.
What are your guys thoughts? Is a little bit of purposeful schadenfreude ok?
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Say Hello
Just a little blurb - you know those cell phone ads that are telling us to make more cell phone calls with their company by switching "goodbye" with "hello" in everyday usage? For example, instead of "The Goodbye Girl," they show a marquee with "The Hello Girl." Or they show lovers hugging and saying "Hello" as one of them leaves in a packed car. Right. You know the ones I'm talking about.
But the best part of those ads? One of them has a teary-eyed Brett Favre sitting at a podium, made to look like his retirement press conference, saying "Hello" to all of his fans. Gotta love the Green Bay Packers' reaction to that one, when it turned out to be true.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
But the best part of those ads? One of them has a teary-eyed Brett Favre sitting at a podium, made to look like his retirement press conference, saying "Hello" to all of his fans. Gotta love the Green Bay Packers' reaction to that one, when it turned out to be true.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Risky Business
First, check out the latest TMR column on fantasy football, here. One little blurb strikes me as very interesting.
The idea is also this: Fantasy sports, specifically fantasy football, is about minimizing risk. Luck will always have some part in it, so when you can minimize risk, you have a better chance of success.
Here in the UPL, we've been trying to do that through our league formats, from the get go. But TMR just went off and said, what we've been doing all along. His statement on drafting for yardage and for touches is telling. That's how we've designed our league.
Part of minimizing risk during the draft is understanding who the best player available currently is, and to factor that information with position scarcity.
As a result, I say you go running back in the first round, and then it's best player available. Points come from everywhere, but they still seem to come most consistently from running backs. The difference now is that the point differential is not as great and there are more running backs contributing to point totals (but contributing less in terms of total points) than before.
TMR is starting to see the light. And even that may not be quite adequate for what we do here in the UPL. The UPL has been rather progressive in this view. This is why the most successful team in UPL Football prefers to draft Peyton Manning first, and follow him up with Marvin Harrison. This is why you've seen the 2nd most successful team in UPL Football (yours truly) go with players such as Terrell Owens and Randy Moss in the first round, and jump on certain QB's a round or two early.
Why? Think of it this way. Sure, you know that there probably will be 2 or 3 QB's that will perform equal to Peyton. Are you sure who it will be? Do you want to gamble a 3rd or 4th round pick on Big Ben (last year, great bet - 2 seasons ago, not so much)? How about Brett Favre (last year, great bet - 2 season ago, not so much)? Carson Palmer (probably one of the more sure things, actually)? Tom Brady (also puts up good numbers in the UPL, since we value accuracy)? Matt Hasselback? Marc Bulger? Derek Anderson? I don't know. What's the value of that certainty? And more importantly, do you want to entrust a high pick on that chance? Not saying that this is the right strategy, but this is the mindset that you probably see with folks who draft Peyton in the first round. And in the UPL, that has been a historically strong strategy.
In any case, you want to lock down big chunks of points with your early rounds, and then speculate on the mid-late rounds. This is the risk minimization that TMR was talking about.
In any case, best of luck in your drafts. And get ready for UPL Football, which is coming soon.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
The idea is also this: Fantasy sports, specifically fantasy football, is about minimizing risk. Luck will always have some part in it, so when you can minimize risk, you have a better chance of success.
Here in the UPL, we've been trying to do that through our league formats, from the get go. But TMR just went off and said, what we've been doing all along. His statement on drafting for yardage and for touches is telling. That's how we've designed our league.
Part of minimizing risk during the draft is understanding who the best player available currently is, and to factor that information with position scarcity.
As a result, I say you go running back in the first round, and then it's best player available. Points come from everywhere, but they still seem to come most consistently from running backs. The difference now is that the point differential is not as great and there are more running backs contributing to point totals (but contributing less in terms of total points) than before.
TMR is starting to see the light. And even that may not be quite adequate for what we do here in the UPL. The UPL has been rather progressive in this view. This is why the most successful team in UPL Football prefers to draft Peyton Manning first, and follow him up with Marvin Harrison. This is why you've seen the 2nd most successful team in UPL Football (yours truly) go with players such as Terrell Owens and Randy Moss in the first round, and jump on certain QB's a round or two early.
Why? Think of it this way. Sure, you know that there probably will be 2 or 3 QB's that will perform equal to Peyton. Are you sure who it will be? Do you want to gamble a 3rd or 4th round pick on Big Ben (last year, great bet - 2 seasons ago, not so much)? How about Brett Favre (last year, great bet - 2 season ago, not so much)? Carson Palmer (probably one of the more sure things, actually)? Tom Brady (also puts up good numbers in the UPL, since we value accuracy)? Matt Hasselback? Marc Bulger? Derek Anderson? I don't know. What's the value of that certainty? And more importantly, do you want to entrust a high pick on that chance? Not saying that this is the right strategy, but this is the mindset that you probably see with folks who draft Peyton in the first round. And in the UPL, that has been a historically strong strategy.
In any case, you want to lock down big chunks of points with your early rounds, and then speculate on the mid-late rounds. This is the risk minimization that TMR was talking about.
In any case, best of luck in your drafts. And get ready for UPL Football, which is coming soon.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Making Moves
The last couple weeks have been a bit quiet, both here in the UPL Blog, and in the UPL. Really, the one move of note was a trade that's worked out well for both parties to this point, and probably will be good for both of us. Dan Haren for Carlos Quentin. I move some offense over to Greg, in return for a good starting pitcher. Quentin's already hit 2 HR's since the break, and Haren tossed a gem in his first start after the break.
And in order to back fill my OF, I accepted a trade that Westy had offered, Aaron Harang for Matt Kemp. There had been rumblings about Harang going on the DL for a few days, and he was finally placed on the DL the Sunday before the All-Star break. There was a little controversy, since Westy had offered the trade before Harang had gone on the DL, so we're keeping the trade tentative - if Harang doesn't come off the DL on July 23rd, as scheduled, Westy can undo the trade.
So that's all well and good. But what's interesting is how rosters evolve over the course of a season. Earlier in the season, the concern with my roster was my starting pitching. However, at this point, the starting pitching appears to be a strength of my roster, as I have traded for Ben Sheets and Dan Haren, picked up Edinson Volquez, Manny Parra, Ricky Nolasco, and Jered Weaver off of free agency. None of my starters were drafted by me. I've been fortunate with my closers (Francisco Cordero since the break, notwithstanding), as they've been rocks all season. I was able to trade away the closer off of a winning team (Kevin Gregg), and I'm still competing for the lead in saves.
As it stands, I think that my pitching will pick up points down the road, my offense should cruise back to the top of the league, and I've got a good chance of heading into football season looking for a Roland Slam. Of course, that's happened before, with only one Roland Slam to show for it. But I digress.
The point of this post is to talk about how the composition of a roster evolves. Most teams start with some noticeable holes at the start of a season. But smart moves can shore up a lot of holes. What's the secret? A few things come to mind. Obviously, you have to get luck w/ your free agent pickups. I got real lucky w/ Volquez. No one expected a Cy Young type season, but that's what he's put up so far. Pure luck. But, I did my homework with Parra, Weaver, and Nolasco. Weaver's always had the stuff - you just need to wait for him to get his control in line, and he'd be a stud. Add on that he's playing for a good defensive team, and you're in business. Parra had worse peripheral numbers (lots of walks, really), but had incredible home/away splits. I picked him up planning to only play him in home games, but he's been a stud since I got him, so he's become a regular starter. And Nolasco's been solid for the Fish all year, and I was trying to figure out how good he was based on his stats. Oddly enough, what pushed it over the top was later the same day, Peter Gammons raving about how he's got #1 starter stuff. And he's been pretty good since I've picked him up. So, you have to get lucky and do your homework with free agents. But this year, I've swung more trades than usual. What's worked differently? I've take a few approaches.
First of all, take smart bets on proven commodities. One of my most important trades was trading Aramis Ramirez for a nicked up Ben Sheets. How can you just move one of the best 3B in the game? You have backup plans. At that point, I had Troy Glaus and Scott Rolen. I assumed that at least one of them was going to have a good season, though Rolen was coming off injury, and Glaus started terribly. Based on historical numbers, that was a safe bet, as Rolen has quietly put together a career w/ an outside shot at the HOF, and Glaus has been almost as good, but even more unnoticed. Since the trade, Glaus has been a stud at 3B, and currently has stats about the same as A-Ram.
Next, stockpile with the intent to move other pieces. The more I think about it, how the A-Ram trade was able to happen was partially influenced by a different factor. I had offense to spare. There's no doubting that I lucked out w/ the Pujols trade. At the time, I wasn't convinced that the trade was going to be that overwhelming of a deal for me, particularly given my lack of starting pitching. Brett Myers has been awful this year, and Konerko has been hurt quite a bit. As a complete aside, look at my predicted HR, OBP and SLG numbers w/ Pujols. Just about dead on after 60% of the season... sick, and my R and RBI numbers are off because of the injuries at C and SS. The SB numbers are much better, though, based on my moves.
In any case, one thing that this allowed me to do was to have a known quantity at 1B, as well as a stud at UTIL (Teixeira), and know that my offense was going to be good. This let me take some chances in free agency at C (hello, Ryan Doumit), which worked out, but I also knew that it wouldn't kill me if it didn't. And just as importantly, it let me pick up Juan Pierre (and Wily Tavaras), knowing that I could have a guy who couldn't hit worth a lick actually help out my team, if he stole bases. But more to the point, it let me deal Pat Burrell (who's put up a stud season) for Alex Rios (who's picked it up quite a bit lately), and get back in contention in SB.
Another example of stockpiling was with closers. Early on, I had 4 closers, and was high up in the standings in saves. But, I traded for Kevin Gregg, anyway (part of the A-Ram deal). Why? Because I knew that a closer could be moved. I wasn't sure which one, but I knew that if I had 5 out of 30 closers, then there'd be at least one team looking to trade with me. That worked itself out rather quickly in the Burrell-Rios trade, which also included Kevin Gregg for Carlos Quentin.
And I think the most important factor is to look for teams that you can trade your strengths to, in return for areas that you're weak in. That's sort of obvious. But it's also important to give value to get value. One of the things that seems to annoy UPL folks are the garbage trade offers for players that are about to be dropped because of lack of production. I try to avoid that (though at some points, I may overvalue my players), and give quality for different quality. This was the Quentin for Haren trade. And the Burrell/Gregg for Rios/Quentin trade. And the A-Ram/Oilver Perez for Kevin Gregg/Ben Sheets trade. And really, the Konerko/Myers for Pujols trade was too (that one just hasn't worked out great for CJ, though I expected both Konerko and Myers to play better).
So the three tactics for trading? Bet on proven quantities whether it's who you're acquiring, or who you're backfilling. Stockpile to trade. Trade value for value. Also, I'd say that it helps to have a sense of what you want your roster to eventually look like. I knew that I needed starting pitching. Starting pitching can be hard to get. I had to get enough talent in other scarce areas (or other elite talent) so that I could get after pitching later. If you can combine this with some smart/lucky free agent pickups, you'll have a shot at the W.
Will I get the W? Beats me. But I think that the Roland slam is looking like a reasonable 15-1 shot, a little off from my initial 10-1 guess (which is still pretty good, if you really think about it).
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
And in order to back fill my OF, I accepted a trade that Westy had offered, Aaron Harang for Matt Kemp. There had been rumblings about Harang going on the DL for a few days, and he was finally placed on the DL the Sunday before the All-Star break. There was a little controversy, since Westy had offered the trade before Harang had gone on the DL, so we're keeping the trade tentative - if Harang doesn't come off the DL on July 23rd, as scheduled, Westy can undo the trade.
So that's all well and good. But what's interesting is how rosters evolve over the course of a season. Earlier in the season, the concern with my roster was my starting pitching. However, at this point, the starting pitching appears to be a strength of my roster, as I have traded for Ben Sheets and Dan Haren, picked up Edinson Volquez, Manny Parra, Ricky Nolasco, and Jered Weaver off of free agency. None of my starters were drafted by me. I've been fortunate with my closers (Francisco Cordero since the break, notwithstanding), as they've been rocks all season. I was able to trade away the closer off of a winning team (Kevin Gregg), and I'm still competing for the lead in saves.
As it stands, I think that my pitching will pick up points down the road, my offense should cruise back to the top of the league, and I've got a good chance of heading into football season looking for a Roland Slam. Of course, that's happened before, with only one Roland Slam to show for it. But I digress.
The point of this post is to talk about how the composition of a roster evolves. Most teams start with some noticeable holes at the start of a season. But smart moves can shore up a lot of holes. What's the secret? A few things come to mind. Obviously, you have to get luck w/ your free agent pickups. I got real lucky w/ Volquez. No one expected a Cy Young type season, but that's what he's put up so far. Pure luck. But, I did my homework with Parra, Weaver, and Nolasco. Weaver's always had the stuff - you just need to wait for him to get his control in line, and he'd be a stud. Add on that he's playing for a good defensive team, and you're in business. Parra had worse peripheral numbers (lots of walks, really), but had incredible home/away splits. I picked him up planning to only play him in home games, but he's been a stud since I got him, so he's become a regular starter. And Nolasco's been solid for the Fish all year, and I was trying to figure out how good he was based on his stats. Oddly enough, what pushed it over the top was later the same day, Peter Gammons raving about how he's got #1 starter stuff. And he's been pretty good since I've picked him up. So, you have to get lucky and do your homework with free agents. But this year, I've swung more trades than usual. What's worked differently? I've take a few approaches.
First of all, take smart bets on proven commodities. One of my most important trades was trading Aramis Ramirez for a nicked up Ben Sheets. How can you just move one of the best 3B in the game? You have backup plans. At that point, I had Troy Glaus and Scott Rolen. I assumed that at least one of them was going to have a good season, though Rolen was coming off injury, and Glaus started terribly. Based on historical numbers, that was a safe bet, as Rolen has quietly put together a career w/ an outside shot at the HOF, and Glaus has been almost as good, but even more unnoticed. Since the trade, Glaus has been a stud at 3B, and currently has stats about the same as A-Ram.
Next, stockpile with the intent to move other pieces. The more I think about it, how the A-Ram trade was able to happen was partially influenced by a different factor. I had offense to spare. There's no doubting that I lucked out w/ the Pujols trade. At the time, I wasn't convinced that the trade was going to be that overwhelming of a deal for me, particularly given my lack of starting pitching. Brett Myers has been awful this year, and Konerko has been hurt quite a bit. As a complete aside, look at my predicted HR, OBP and SLG numbers w/ Pujols. Just about dead on after 60% of the season... sick, and my R and RBI numbers are off because of the injuries at C and SS. The SB numbers are much better, though, based on my moves.
In any case, one thing that this allowed me to do was to have a known quantity at 1B, as well as a stud at UTIL (Teixeira), and know that my offense was going to be good. This let me take some chances in free agency at C (hello, Ryan Doumit), which worked out, but I also knew that it wouldn't kill me if it didn't. And just as importantly, it let me pick up Juan Pierre (and Wily Tavaras), knowing that I could have a guy who couldn't hit worth a lick actually help out my team, if he stole bases. But more to the point, it let me deal Pat Burrell (who's put up a stud season) for Alex Rios (who's picked it up quite a bit lately), and get back in contention in SB.
Another example of stockpiling was with closers. Early on, I had 4 closers, and was high up in the standings in saves. But, I traded for Kevin Gregg, anyway (part of the A-Ram deal). Why? Because I knew that a closer could be moved. I wasn't sure which one, but I knew that if I had 5 out of 30 closers, then there'd be at least one team looking to trade with me. That worked itself out rather quickly in the Burrell-Rios trade, which also included Kevin Gregg for Carlos Quentin.
And I think the most important factor is to look for teams that you can trade your strengths to, in return for areas that you're weak in. That's sort of obvious. But it's also important to give value to get value. One of the things that seems to annoy UPL folks are the garbage trade offers for players that are about to be dropped because of lack of production. I try to avoid that (though at some points, I may overvalue my players), and give quality for different quality. This was the Quentin for Haren trade. And the Burrell/Gregg for Rios/Quentin trade. And the A-Ram/Oilver Perez for Kevin Gregg/Ben Sheets trade. And really, the Konerko/Myers for Pujols trade was too (that one just hasn't worked out great for CJ, though I expected both Konerko and Myers to play better).
So the three tactics for trading? Bet on proven quantities whether it's who you're acquiring, or who you're backfilling. Stockpile to trade. Trade value for value. Also, I'd say that it helps to have a sense of what you want your roster to eventually look like. I knew that I needed starting pitching. Starting pitching can be hard to get. I had to get enough talent in other scarce areas (or other elite talent) so that I could get after pitching later. If you can combine this with some smart/lucky free agent pickups, you'll have a shot at the W.
Will I get the W? Beats me. But I think that the Roland slam is looking like a reasonable 15-1 shot, a little off from my initial 10-1 guess (which is still pretty good, if you really think about it).
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Competitive Advantage - Moving Players
| 6/25/2008 | Team Name | Points | Waiver | Moves | |
| 1 | O.N. Thugs | 107.5 | 1.5 | 11 | 50 |
| 2 | IStillSuckCurveballs | 103.5 | 0.5 | 8 | 9 |
| 3 | IamJabrone | 98 | 2.5 | 12 | 38 |
| 4 | TheJimmyDixLongballs | 97.5 | -0.5 | 9 | 8 |
| 5 | Black Sox | 96.5 | -1.5 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | 90 Reds | 88.5 | -3.5 | 2 | 32 |
| 7 | Milwaukee Whiffers | 78 | 0 | 5 | 19 |
| 8 | Phatsnapper | 76 | -0.5 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Muddy Mud Skippers | 53.5 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Cheeseheads | 53.5 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 11 | Westy's Slugs | 52.5 | 1 | 3 | 39 |
| 12 | Benver Droncos | 31 | 0.5 | 10 | 30 |
These are the standings for our league as of June 25th. For the past two weeks the top five spots have been fairly consistent, with C-Lauff and Roland fighting over first and O.D. making a strong run at the top of the order too. What's most interesting for me has been watching the many many moves of teams like the Thugs and Jambrone and wondering if I should be adopting the same strategy.
I mean, think about it. Is it normal that 40% of the top 5 teams have made less than 10 moves, while 2 of the 3 teams with the most moves are also in the top 3 of the league?
Unfortunately for me, this kind of rapid player-swap isn't included in any of my long-term plans. Part of this is that I'm still new to the fantasy baseball scene and still learning which players are for real and which are flukes. Most of it is personality - My memory can't really retain obscure stats and player info that well.
I'll just put it out there - is there a strong advantage in making frequent player moves? Are these low-move teams sitting in the top 5 just injury-bombs waiting to happen? With constraints such as time and / or knowledge is there a greater value in using your "Move" utility in trading than working the waiver?
It'd be interesting to track the number of trades made and the number of waiver moves made. It's probably in there somewhere.
Spitting Venom
Greg, one of our UPL regulars has a knack for coming up with timely, hilarious postings. This one just had to be archived:
So naturally, there had to be a follow-up:
As I look more closely, I think that I'd put the "Haters talk big game... ...they all come up lame." lines at the end, just to build the flow a little better. But it wasn't a bad first pass response to what Greg posted. Plus, there's nothing like dissin' a horse that's been recently euthanized.
I'm sure that the fine folks at PETA will be contacting us soon.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
So naturally, there had to be a follow-up:
| Re: Somewhere in a New York club... by:  O.N. Thugs | Jun 24 10:16pm |
| While I can't confirm or deny any reports, according to TMZ.com, there was also a second stanza: Who's on top of the UPL? It's the O.N. Thugs you know so well. Who's on top of the UPL? It's the O.N. Thugs you know so well. Haters talk big game. Punks try to chase fame. Like Eight Belles, They all come up lame. Too many imitators. But no duplicators. Chumps wanna hate us. Jabrones ride the short bus. The Milwaukee Whiffers? Swept up by my Swiffers. JimmyDix? That's too easy. Forget Phatsnapper. May as well be Cheesy. '90 Reds? That's 18 years past. Bret Boone don't star in this cast. Westy's Slugs? That's 18th place. Too far back to see your face. Who's on top of the UPL? It's the O.N. Thugs you know so well. Who's on top of the UPL? It's the O.N. Thugs you know so well. | |
As I look more closely, I think that I'd put the "Haters talk big game... ...they all come up lame." lines at the end, just to build the flow a little better. But it wasn't a bad first pass response to what Greg posted. Plus, there's nothing like dissin' a horse that's been recently euthanized.
I'm sure that the fine folks at PETA will be contacting us soon.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Monday, June 23, 2008
Riding Out Storms II
The last few weeks have been sort of ridiculous. Defended my proposal on May 28. Wrapped up teaching for my summer school course. Drove out to Mizzou for a 5 day conference. Got back, and was prepping for a conference up in Chicago. Almost killed (and got killed by) a deer. Took off for Boston to help my brother pack up stuff for his move out to Hawaii. And finally got back home last night.
I think that I spent a few days in 2nd (and maybe even 3rd place). I was able to get online enough to update my roster a few times, and even pick up some new players. But, I haven't exactly been up to date on everything in either MLB or the UPL.
I knew that my catcher came back, and then got a concussion, so was out for a couple games. And I knew that my revolving door at SS had continued. I knew that my (historically) best starter was still getting lit up. And that my guys weren't really hitting (partially because I took on one too many bad hitting, fast guys).
So, it was interesting to find that somehow, someway, I'm still in first place right now. Go figure.
At this point, I've given up a few points in R, HR, and RBI, which hopefully will come back once Pujols gets off the DL. And when Furcal comes back, I should be able to close out more in R and SB. So, the offense should be OK. On the pitching side, my squad really needs Harang to not be terrible. Simply average from Harang may have been good enough to have this league put away by now (if he was 7-6, rather than 3-10, there would be a 7 point swing in the standings).
But as it stands, it's back to work :-)
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
I think that I spent a few days in 2nd (and maybe even 3rd place). I was able to get online enough to update my roster a few times, and even pick up some new players. But, I haven't exactly been up to date on everything in either MLB or the UPL.
I knew that my catcher came back, and then got a concussion, so was out for a couple games. And I knew that my revolving door at SS had continued. I knew that my (historically) best starter was still getting lit up. And that my guys weren't really hitting (partially because I took on one too many bad hitting, fast guys).
So, it was interesting to find that somehow, someway, I'm still in first place right now. Go figure.
At this point, I've given up a few points in R, HR, and RBI, which hopefully will come back once Pujols gets off the DL. And when Furcal comes back, I should be able to close out more in R and SB. So, the offense should be OK. On the pitching side, my squad really needs Harang to not be terrible. Simply average from Harang may have been good enough to have this league put away by now (if he was 7-6, rather than 3-10, there would be a 7 point swing in the standings).
But as it stands, it's back to work :-)
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Jabrone Rising
Like in real baseball, fantasy baseball is a season of steaks and slumps, highs and lows. Learning how to ride those out is part of the overall approach to managing a winning team. Right now, I'm on the streak of my fantasy life. On May 23rd, I was dead-to-rites in 7th place, somewhere in the low 80's in roto points, and Roland posted this:
"Please tell me that this hasn't become a 2-team league with me and the Boston Red Sox.
I thought that you had traded for David Wright and Grady Sizemore."
Well, I did trade for David Wright and Grady Sizemore, as well as Scott Kazmir. And, I picked up Shane Victorino, Aaron Rowand and Jay Bruce. And all they've done since that magical 23rd of May is the following:
David Wright (11 games): .467 OBP, 10 runs, 3 HRs, 7 RBI's, 2 SB's
Grady Sizemore (10 games): .400 OBP, 6 runs, 4 HRs, 7 RBI's, 4 SB's
Shane Victorino (10 games): .422 OBP, 16 runs, 5 RBI's, 5 SB's
Aaron Rowand (10 games): .476 OBP, 10 runs, 3 HRs, 13 RBI's, 1 SB
Jay Bruce (7 games): .667 OBP, 1.038 SLG, 12 runs, 3 HRs, 7 RBi's, 2 SB's
Scott Kazmir (2 games, 14 innings): 2 wins, 0 losses, .642ERA, .642WHIP, 16Ks
Clearly, the guys mentioned above have been the leaders of this full-on attack of first place. Though, I don't expect the same production from the guys above for the rest of the year, this goes to show that free agent pickups, timely trades and overall effective roster management can give your team the shot in the arm that it needs. It's been good enough to get me 30 extra points and I think the guys are good enough to keep me in the mix.
Now, if I can just get my top 2 draft picks off of the DL (Holiday and Peavy) and have Liriano come back from AAA and produce, I can make Roland sweat the whole year for his run at the UPL baseball trophy. Although this year, I'd like to think that I'm a more formidable contender than in years past.
Off to watch Joba Chamberlain eat up the Toronto Blue Jays as if he were Joba the Hutt. Jabrone rising, my friends, Jabrone rising.
"Please tell me that this hasn't become a 2-team league with me and the Boston Red Sox.
I thought that you had traded for David Wright and Grady Sizemore."
Well, I did trade for David Wright and Grady Sizemore, as well as Scott Kazmir. And, I picked up Shane Victorino, Aaron Rowand and Jay Bruce. And all they've done since that magical 23rd of May is the following:
David Wright (11 games): .467 OBP, 10 runs, 3 HRs, 7 RBI's, 2 SB's
Grady Sizemore (10 games): .400 OBP, 6 runs, 4 HRs, 7 RBI's, 4 SB's
Shane Victorino (10 games): .422 OBP, 16 runs, 5 RBI's, 5 SB's
Aaron Rowand (10 games): .476 OBP, 10 runs, 3 HRs, 13 RBI's, 1 SB
Jay Bruce (7 games): .667 OBP, 1.038 SLG, 12 runs, 3 HRs, 7 RBi's, 2 SB's
Scott Kazmir (2 games, 14 innings): 2 wins, 0 losses, .642ERA, .642WHIP, 16Ks
Clearly, the guys mentioned above have been the leaders of this full-on attack of first place. Though, I don't expect the same production from the guys above for the rest of the year, this goes to show that free agent pickups, timely trades and overall effective roster management can give your team the shot in the arm that it needs. It's been good enough to get me 30 extra points and I think the guys are good enough to keep me in the mix.
Now, if I can just get my top 2 draft picks off of the DL (Holiday and Peavy) and have Liriano come back from AAA and produce, I can make Roland sweat the whole year for his run at the UPL baseball trophy. Although this year, I'd like to think that I'm a more formidable contender than in years past.
Off to watch Joba Chamberlain eat up the Toronto Blue Jays as if he were Joba the Hutt. Jabrone rising, my friends, Jabrone rising.
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