Risky Business

First, check out the latest TMR column on fantasy football, here. One little blurb strikes me as very interesting.

The idea is also this: Fantasy sports, specifically fantasy football, is about minimizing risk. Luck will always have some part in it, so when you can minimize risk, you have a better chance of success.

Here in the UPL, we've been trying to do that through our league formats, from the get go. But TMR just went off and said, what we've been doing all along. His statement on drafting for yardage and for touches is telling. That's how we've designed our league.

Part of minimizing risk during the draft is understanding who the best player available currently is, and to factor that information with position scarcity.

As a result, I say you go running back in the first round, and then it's best player available. Points come from everywhere, but they still seem to come most consistently from running backs. The difference now is that the point differential is not as great and there are more running backs contributing to point totals (but contributing less in terms of total points) than before.

TMR is starting to see the light. And even that may not be quite adequate for what we do here in the UPL. The UPL has been rather progressive in this view. This is why the most successful team in UPL Football prefers to draft Peyton Manning first, and follow him up with Marvin Harrison. This is why you've seen the 2nd most successful team in UPL Football (yours truly) go with players such as Terrell Owens and Randy Moss in the first round, and jump on certain QB's a round or two early.

Why? Think of it this way. Sure, you know that there probably will be 2 or 3 QB's that will perform equal to Peyton. Are you sure who it will be? Do you want to gamble a 3rd or 4th round pick on Big Ben (last year, great bet - 2 seasons ago, not so much)? How about Brett Favre (last year, great bet - 2 season ago, not so much)? Carson Palmer (probably one of the more sure things, actually)? Tom Brady (also puts up good numbers in the UPL, since we value accuracy)? Matt Hasselback? Marc Bulger? Derek Anderson? I don't know. What's the value of that certainty? And more importantly, do you want to entrust a high pick on that chance? Not saying that this is the right strategy, but this is the mindset that you probably see with folks who draft Peyton in the first round. And in the UPL, that has been a historically strong strategy.

In any case, you want to lock down big chunks of points with your early rounds, and then speculate on the mid-late rounds. This is the risk minimization that TMR was talking about.

In any case, best of luck in your drafts. And get ready for UPL Football, which is coming soon.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)