Since our newest contributor of the UPL Blog has posted his take on the 2011 UPL Baseball Draft, I feel compelled to do the same. Although, I have to be honest, my levels of preparation for these things are really dropping.
Basically, I like my team going into the draft. I've got 8 slots to fill up. I go in there with the goal of finding a couple young guys to hang on to. I'm willing to have 1 (maybe 2) roster spots devoted to guys with late 2011 (or even 2012) ETA's. But I'm of the belief that you should use the guys on your roster to win now, if your team's got a shot.
Obviously, the pitching is a strong part of my team. I pulled off a useful trade before the draft, to get Cliff Lee. In addition to Lee, my rotation is Lincecum, Kershaw, Carpenter, Volquez, and Peavy. My RP are Soria, K-Rod, and Bailey. Assuming that I get about 200 IP out of those 3, I've got about 1250 IP to use up with my SP. I know that Peavy is hurt, but there's a reasonable chance that some of the guys go more than 200 IP. So, really, SP isn't a priority. I know that Bailey is on the DL to start the season, so I need to get some cheap SV, so I think about a couple possible RP to pick up. But it's nothing too pressing. I figure that worst case, I can trade for a RP at some point. But getting 2 cheap RP in the draft is what I'm thinking.
On the hitting side, there are a few holes. Obviously, 2B, since I don't actually have a 2B on the roster. And I'm giving up games at C, with only Posada on the roster. So at some point I'll need to get a 2B and a C. And last year, there were problems with power, so figuring out how to get some more power in there was important, as well. So, I can go with some potential power.
As far as who I'm thinking about, there were a number of possibilities.
For getting offensive production, there were a number guys who were dropped that had pedigrees: Rafael Furcal, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Carlos Beltran, Chipper Jones, Alfonso Soriano, Hideki Matsui, Jason Kubel, James Loney. And some hyped prospects that had lost luster: Alex Gordon, Dexter Fowler, Travis Snider, Adam Jones. The younger guys were all reasonable choices. Of the veterans, I was most interested in the guys that had been injury risks, since there was better chance that the decline was injury-based, and not from loss of skill. And the younger guys were all intriguing, but seemed to carry more risk than I wanted. Furcal and Thome were two familiar faces to the O.N. Thugs. Beltran and Chipper were two players that I though were interesting, as well.
At 2B, things are always tight. Prado would have been the best choice, but he's probably not getting to me at the 11th pick. Juan Uribe had a productive season last year, but he has such a low OBP, that he's a little scary to me. And Chone Figgins has put up decent rate stats in the past, though not last year, and would be good for about 45 SB. Neil Walker put up a .810 OPS last year, and would have been intriguing, as well. Ryan Rayburn qualified at 2B, and had produced, though wasn't a full-time player. And I actually had Omar Infante last year at some point. And the Japanese dude Nishioka was going off in drafts, as well, and was going to be the starting 2B in MIN. I figure that I'd have time to get one of those guys in the first few rounds. And if not, there would be someone I could get in free agency, after I put some guys on the DL. Good ol' Freddy Sanchez, Orlando Hudson, or Skip Shumaker. But I wanted to get someone in the draft, since I did need to fill that spot in the roster.
At C, there was actually more playable depth. Two familiar faces were Russell Martin and Ryan Doumit, two former O.N. Thugs. Arencibia got some hype last year. Ruiz, Hernandez, and a few other names could have been passable, as well. But this was a lesser concern. I figured that I had at least 110 games from Posada (maybe even more now that he was DH'ing). This could wait until free agency, if it needed to.
As far as RP goes, there weren't many true closers there, save for Brandon Lyon, who's a little problematic to own because he's not good. Brandon League and Matt Capps were probably going to get a couple saves early on, as Aardsma and Nathan got into the swing of things, and could have been a temporary option. Either Contreras or Madson was going to get a few saves in PHI, and one of the Blue Jay pitchers had to get saves, I figured. And after that, you had some set-up guys, ranging from younger guys like like Sale, Meek, and Walden to older guys like Farnsworth, Motte, and Uehara. None of these options looked particularly sexy to me.
With the prospects, I figured that Bryce Harper and Mike Trout (the consensus #1 and #1a top prospects this year) would be gone by the time I was drafting in the 1st round. A number of the top prospects were already on rosters (Hellickson, for example). There were a number of names that were certain to be picked at some point in the draft: Domonic Brown, Mike Minor, Brandon Belt, Desmond Jennings, Dustin Ackley, Kyle Drabek, Mike Moustakas, Julio Teheran, Jhoulys Chacin, Jose Tabata, Michael Pineda, Freddie Freeman, and Jesus Montero. My goal was to get to two of these guys, ideally one of whom was going to be a 2011 contributor.
So the draft starts up.
And Bryce Harper goes #1. No surprise. Jeff had actually e-mailed me about my thoughts, and I told him that I'd be very surprised if Harper or Trout would get to him in the 2nd round, since I'd be 99% to draft them at #11 and 100% to draft either at #16 overall. Then Prado goes off at #2. Again, sure. Zambrano goes off at #3. I almost kept him, before I pulled off the Cliff Lee trade (and thought about keeping him as a 7th SP). Then Neil Walker goes at #4. So my options at 2B look worse at this point. Probably waiting another round or two before I go down that road. Then Brandon Lyon goes at #5, and I laugh a little, because I figure that he'll go over like Dotel did for Greg last year.
Initially, I was figuring out if I liked Beltran at the #10 slot, and was talking myself into it. But after Lyon goes off, I start wondering if Trout may fall to me, like Aroldis Chapman did last year. I figured that there was no way, since CJ was picking at #10, and had indicated that he'd go young this draft, and that he'd lock down either Trout or Harper if they fell to him at #11. But I wondered.
Adam Jones and Rafael Furcal go off at #6 and #7. Again no surprise. Then Ryan Rayburn goes off to Greg at #8. That was a bit of a surprise, since he's got other needs. And C-Lauff's picking at #9. I start heckling him with Ricky Nolasco, since he was his guy last year. And CJ chimes in on the chat, saying for me to shut up. At that point, I remember that CJ was also targeting SP, and was interested in Edwin Jackson. And evidently Ricky Nolasco, as well. All of a sudden, I wonder if Mike Trout was going to be an option for me.
C-Lauff goes with Figgins at #9. CJ quickly grabs Nolasco at #10, and I fall into Mike Trout. Happy outcome for me. Particularly since Rup and Pauly lay off Beltran, and he's there for me to grab at #16 overall. As the draft continues, it comes to me in the 3rd (37 overall), and I realize that it's either draft Infante now (or maybe wait until my 4th round pick - #42 overall), or wait until FA to get a 2B. Decide that I shouldn't risk having Rup or Pauly randomly grab Infante (though it was a small chance), and just pick now, figuring that Chipper (who I was debating) would be there in the 4th. It worked out OK, and I ended up with Infante as my 2B (eh, needed a starter), and got Chipper as my 2nd offensive lottery ticket. So, I'm pretty happy. I get my prospect, get 2 offensive lottery tickets, and get a 2B with my picks.
Here, the RP situation looks to be tightening up, to the point of looking ugly. So I'm thinking about just ignoring it, and taking more offensive lottery tickets and prospects. And I set my sights on Domonic Brown, Jesus Montero, and Mike Moustakas. Brown and Moustakas go off in the 5th round. But meanwhile, I had sort of gotten bored of the draft. I'm off on Facebook or Twitter or something, and checked back in to see that Hisanori Takahashi had been selected, so I made some joke about the tsunami of Japanese players being selected, and then I went back to goofing around on the internet. I had Montero set up in my queue, and figured that I had time to figure out who I was going to take in the 6th.
But sure enough Montero gets picked up by CJ at the pick right before mine. Only I don't notice this. So I end up with like 20 seconds left on the clock, and I'm looking around for who to select. I do a quick check of the Blue Jays team, looking to see their RP situation, and have Arencibia catch my eye. So, I decide that if I couldn't get Montero, I'd still go with a prospect C. And as I'm about to click "draft," my time runs out, and I get an auto-pick.
Koji Uehara. Japanese guy. Part of the tsunami of Japanese players :-) Whoops. So there was extra irony in that pick. Later CJ commented that he thought that pick was deliberate after I made the tsunami joke. My first thought is, "Who the hell's Koji Uehara?" The screen told me that he was a RP with BAL, and my next thought was, "Dammit. I have an Orioles RP, this can't be good." But I looked at his stats from last year, and saw that Kevin Gregg was their closer, and I figured that there was a reasonable chance that he turns into gold this year. So I was less annoyed.
So, I queue up Arencibia for my pick in the 6th. As I'm figuring out who Koji Uehara was, the draft continues. And again, my guy gets picked right before I'm going to draft him, as Pauly gets him in the 6th. And again, I don't notice until there's like 45 seconds left on my clock. At this point, I'm horribly bored, and knew that it was too early to get after prospects who probably weren't going to be drafted. Since I had looked at the Blue Jays team information, I just stick with one of the RP on that staff. Figured that there was some karma at work somewhere, and I go with Octavio Dotel, particularly after I had made fun of Greg last year. So I pick him up.
And at this point, I'm just guessing, as most of the prospects that I had on my radar had been picked up. In retrospect, I didn't realize that Brandon Belt was still available, and had I noted that, I wouldn't have gone Dotel. But since I didn't catch that Belt was available, and since I had just read about the Blue Jays, I pick up Kyle Drabek in the 7th. Then Belt goes to Pauly right afterward, and I'm instantly annoyed at myself for how badly I had botched the last 3 rounds because I got bored. I do manage to get things under control, and was happy to get my guy Russell Martin as my last pick, hoping that the change of scenery to NY would do him well.
As I look back, things have worked out OK so far with the late picks. Dotel's been hurt, which I knew. Uehara has tossed well, Martin has hit a HR and has a SB in his new role as the starting C in NY, and Drabek had a stud outing in his first start. As for the early picks, Trout's in the minors, Beltran and Infante have had slow starts, but Chipper looks to be back to his old self. As I look back, I'm pretty happy with the draft because I filled the slots I needed, and got a couple good prospects and lottery tickets. Obviously, I've gotten a little lucky with the results of my Uehara and Drabek picks. On the other hand, I'm back to the drawing board at 2B, as Infante has been bad so far. I've picked up Jose Lopez, who doesn't qualify for 2B for a few more games, but that's not exactly the next coming of Joe Morgan.
In any case, the season is off and running. We'll see how everything plays out.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Showing posts with label player evaluation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label player evaluation. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Draft Day Dilemmas
The UPL Baseball Draft has come and gone again. This season I found myself falling into some traps that I thought wouldn't plague me again. For instance, I once again focused on need over talent. I also didn't prepare a deep enough list of players to draft, and thus found my game plan collapsing by the later rounds. This was compounded by the fact that my Internet kept going out every 3 to 4 minutes.
Heading into the draft my team desperately needed 2B, SS, and RP. (With Brian Wilson on the DL, I only had one closer, Drew Storen, and his spring was very concerning.) Last year I focused on closers early in the keeper draft, and while my bullpen did well last year, I never managed to get a quality SS on my team. And with McGehee losing 2B eligibility, I found myself in a similar position as last season in terms of needs. But unlike last year, I was determined to address both SS and 2B before RP.
When I saw that Rafael Furcal was available, I did lots of research on him and decided his upside was worth the injury risk. I was picking 8th, and Furcal was the #2 rated hitter available (after Martin Prado), so my chances of getting him were slim. But I held out some hope. And when the Cheeseheads were picking 7th with Furcal still on the board, I actually thought I was going to land him because the Cheeseheads already had Troy Tulowitzki. But no, the Cheeseheads went with the proven talent and took Furcal.
When researching 2B/SS before the draft, one name that caught my eye was Ryan Raburn of the Tigers. He had barely played enough at 2B last season to qualify at that position, but he was really an outfielder with some power. Grey at Razzball was high on him (in the good sense), and lots of people seemed to think that Raburn could have a breakout season. Yes, he was nearing 30 years old, but he had already shown decent MLB production over the past 2 seasons. He had played in 113 games in each of the last 2 years -- and if he could get into more like 140, he was somebody who could give you 20+ homers at 2B. That would be nice.
Ideally, I would have loved to have taken Furcal at #8 in the 1st round and then Raburn at #19 in the 2nd round. With Furcal off the board, I felt compelled to take Raburn while I could. My thought was that he has a chance at going .360/.490 with 24 homers at 2B eligibility, and that would be really nice. Yeah, he probably would have dropped to the 2nd round, but I didn't want to take that chance. Maybe if I had known at the time that my guy Mat Latos would be heading to the DL, I would have taken a starter like Ricky Nolasco. But other than that, I'm not sure that I would have been too high on the guys who went right after Raburn. It's not that they're bad, it's just that these are all guess at this point anyway. Mike Trout has more trade value right now than Raburn, but I don't like the idea of having a guy in the minors sitting on my bench, especially when he's still so young (19) and unproven.
When my 2nd pick came around, I looked at the available SS's and didn't like what I saw, so I bailed out with safe pick--Chris Sale as an elite middle reliever with potential to hawk a few saves (and potentially more if Thornton doesn't get the job done). I also had Luke Gregerson qued up here in case Sale went off the board; this info is significant because my Internet connection later went out and I auto-drafted Gregerson with my 3rd pick. That might turn out OK, but I would have preferred to go after someone else in that spot since I already had Sale--for instance, Chipper Jones could have been on my radar.
In the 4th round, I was a little surprised to see Mike Minor still on the board. Yes, I knew that he had unexpectedly lost out on the 5th starter spot for Atlanta, but at the same time he's still an elite prospect who performed well at the major league level toward the end of last season. Just because a prospect gets sent down to Triple-A at the end of spring training doesn't necessarily mean anything is wrong. Based on my research, Minor had pitched well, but so had Brandon Beachy. The Braves decided to go with Beachy for now. Okay. In the short term, Minor's stock takes a hit. It also means he's available in a garbage round. Since I wanted to get at least one elite prospect in this draft, I went with Minor.
In the 5th round, I had to take a SS. My team had zero SS's on the roster, and while part of me thought my chances were better with no SS compared to who was available, ultimately my brain told me my odds were slightly better by taking the best SS available. (I use the word "best' here loosely.) I went with a young guy with some speed who'd would be hitting toward the top of an anemic lineup. His name is Alcides Escobar, or something like that. Unfortunately, I was basically in exactly the same position as last year when late in the draft I took some young guy with speed who would be hitting toward the top of an anemic lineup (Padres). Although, I can't remember that shortstop's name. Seriously, I can't. He's just some guy who underperformed last season and made me want to forget all about him. I hope this Escobar guy can do better, but I'm not holding my breath...
By the 6th round my player list had collapsed and I was basically flying blind. With a spotty Internet connection, I couldn't cruise the web looking for last-minute research. So I went with who I thought was the best proven hitter still available: Marlon Byrd. I know, that was a terrible pick. But at that point I was just trying to minimize damage.
In the 7th round my Internet attacked again and I was left with the autodraft: David Murphy. Let's pretend I didn't write that last sentence.
In the 8th (and last) round, I was thinking about steals. Bourn was one of my keepers, but I wouldn't consider him a reliable player (and most speedy guys aren't very reliable due to a slightly higher risk for injuries that prevent them from getting as many steals). I had remembered from some of my reading a few days before the draft that Eric Young was battling for a platoon spot with the Rockies, but that he still might be a good late-round pick in case he was able to put things together. My thought here was that maybe Young would get off to a good start and get more playing time than expected--which might lead to season where he bats .275 (maybe a .320 OBP?) with 35+ steals. Yeah, I know, that was an extremely optimistic outlook, but it's the thought I had in my mind. Of course, I soon as I picked him, Pauly noted that Young had already been sent down to the minors. Whoops.
So how did I do? Well, as usual, during the draft I feel like I'm doing poorly compared to the group, but after a few days I settle down and feel better. Realistically, if Raburn can be a top 5 2B, my draft right away starts looking better. If Sale and Gregerson both put up elite pitching stats and mix in some saves, then that's nice, too. If Mike Minor eventually blossoms into a top 20 starter pitching for a good team (Braves) in a pitcher-friendly park (Atlanta), then that's pretty good, too. Those results would move my team forward a step, and really, that's all you can hope to do in this type of draft.
But will it happen? Nobody can predict the future, and each pick is always a risk. If Raburn is a bust, if either Sale or Gregerson implode, and if Minor lives up to his name and spends most of his time down on the farm, then yeah, my draft will look stupid.
Each year people comment about how the UPL's competitiveness is increasing, and this year seems to be no different. When I finally realized yesterday that Storen didn't get Washington's save, I tried to pick up Sean Burnett but Rupert had beat me to him by about an hour. These types of things are happening more and more often, and when I look back at our draft, I do see some savvy picks were made that I wouldn't have known about until I read about some of these guys after the draft. I've also missed out on some starting pitchers on the waiver wire recently because I didn't want to risk a waiver priority but others did (Wade Davis and J.A. Happ come to mind). In the UPL, it feels like you have to go after almost any small advantage possible. To make an analogy, it's like playing against a great-shooting basketball team and if you don't get all the way out to defend the three, they'll make you pay. Early on I've had some slips, and I can already see some of those threes swishing in.
Another thought on my mind is that last year I was not aggressive enough with trades. I probably should get busy on that front soon...
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
A Thug Walks Into a Pawn Shop...
So, the O.N. Thugs and Westy's Ballers have completed a trade. The O.N. Thugs' response? That it was an odd feeling, like walking into a pawn shop in an alternate universe that had reasonable items on the shelves. They went on to note that perhaps the only thing stranger would be to complete a trade with C-Lauff. Westy's response? That C-Lauff would never complete a trade with a competitive team. Ouch. C-Lauff's response? He thought it was a strange trade, that the O.N. Thugs would win the trade this year, but that the jury would be out for the future.
I don't know how strange it is. Obviously, for a team that's in title contention, winning a given trade for that year is a must, unless there's a young superstar involved (think Blake Griffin or something like that). And doing so without gutting the keeper base generally makes the trade a win. As for a rebuilding team, the goal is to get value for older veterans that are borderline keepers, to get younger, and to get likely multiple-year keepers. I think that both teams got what they wanted.
The trade basically went like this. Westy wanted Conley, as an emerging top 10-12 PG, and top 50 player, and someone who the "advanced stats" have always loved. Remember, how he drafted Conley last year, instead of Tyreke Evans? And then he dropped Conley, only to have him start playing well for the O.N. Thugs? And then let Conley slide to the O.N. Thugs in the 4th round of the draft this year, only to have him emerge with a career year? Well, the theory is that Westy wanted to correct that. Given that the O.N. Thugs actually had Conley as their 3rd PG, this was a distinct possibility. The initial offer from Westy was for some bland bench players (think someone like Jamal Crawford, who we've talked about being a non-O.N. Thugs sort of guy here before), which wasn't to the O.N. Thugs liking.
The O.N. Thugs responded with an offer for Al Jefferson in a 1-for-1, but noted that they'd also go for Millsap.
Player A: .453/.767, 15.1 PTS, 1.0 3PM, 7.0 AST, 3.1 REB, 2.1 STL, 2.547 A/TO
Player B: .469/.851, 16.5, 8.8 REB, 2.0 OREB, 1.8 AST, 0.5 STL, 1.7 BLK, 1.438 A/TO
Player C: .550/.725, 17.9 PTS, 8.1 REB, 2.2 OREB, 2.4 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.8 BLK, 1.771 A/TO
The logic was that Conley (Player A) and Jefferson (Player B) had similar scoring, similar percentages, and that Millsap (Player C) was close enough to Jefferson, though he didn't qualify at C. Conely is a plus STL, AST and A/TO guy, and gives you some 3PM. The Thugs needed REB, OREB, BLK, and wanted some FG% in return, if they were going to move Conley.
As a total aside, there was also a secret, illogical reason for the request for Jefferson/Millsap. The O.N. Thugs wanted to have a 2nd good Jazz player on their roster so that they could enjoy watching Jazz games more (since the Jazz have become one of the Thugs' favorite real-life teams, now that D-Will is out there). In the original UPL Keeper Draft, the O.N. Thugs even chose Carlos Boozer over Dwight Howard for the reason that watching D-Will/Boozer for the next few years would be more fun/time-efficient. Yeah. Sometimes, trades work like that.
Westy balked at the 1 for 1, and countered with an improvement from his initial offer that included Tyson Chandler, but still was an awkward 2-for 1 deal for the O.N. Thugs' roster to take, and wasn't enough value to overwhelm the roster makeup.
The O.N. Thugs were intrigued at the possibility of reacquiring Chandler, a valuable part of O.N. Thugs championships in years past, and offered Cousins for Chandler, as a youth for veteran help now, which seems to be a fair deal, based on UPL moves in the past.
It seemed that Westy was OK with the Cousins/Chandler move, but it became clear that Westy still wanted Conley. Last last night, the offer of Cousins for Chandler, plus Conley for Millsap, plus Gallinari for Pierce was offered. If you put together the events from earlier in the negotiations (Westy's refusal to move Millsap for Conley; Cousins for Chandler seeming like a reasonable trade), the conclusion is that Gallinari has more value that Pierce. And if you look at the stats, both have awfully similar stats this year:
Player A: .400/.909, 15.3 PTS, 2.0 3PM, 4.9 REB, 0.9 OREB, 1.7 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.5 BLK, 2.048 A/TO
Player B: .497/.843, 18 PTS, 1.1 3PM, 4.7 REB, 0.3 OREB, 2.7 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.8 BLK, 1.575 A/TO
The key issue is that Gallinari's 11 years younger (and is Player A, above). In fact, across the entire trade, Westy picks up Conley (23), Gallinari (22), and Cousins (20), whereas the O.N. Thugs get Millsap (25), Chandler (30), and Pierce (33).
Of course, this is just the start of trading season. As teams figure out if they're rebuilding (i.e., Sparty) or contending (SMDB), a little more certainty will emerge. And somehow, the O.N. Thugs will keep finding ways to improve their team to make their annual late-season run at the title.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
I don't know how strange it is. Obviously, for a team that's in title contention, winning a given trade for that year is a must, unless there's a young superstar involved (think Blake Griffin or something like that). And doing so without gutting the keeper base generally makes the trade a win. As for a rebuilding team, the goal is to get value for older veterans that are borderline keepers, to get younger, and to get likely multiple-year keepers. I think that both teams got what they wanted.
The trade basically went like this. Westy wanted Conley, as an emerging top 10-12 PG, and top 50 player, and someone who the "advanced stats" have always loved. Remember, how he drafted Conley last year, instead of Tyreke Evans? And then he dropped Conley, only to have him start playing well for the O.N. Thugs? And then let Conley slide to the O.N. Thugs in the 4th round of the draft this year, only to have him emerge with a career year? Well, the theory is that Westy wanted to correct that. Given that the O.N. Thugs actually had Conley as their 3rd PG, this was a distinct possibility. The initial offer from Westy was for some bland bench players (think someone like Jamal Crawford, who we've talked about being a non-O.N. Thugs sort of guy here before), which wasn't to the O.N. Thugs liking.
The O.N. Thugs responded with an offer for Al Jefferson in a 1-for-1, but noted that they'd also go for Millsap.
Player A: .453/.767, 15.1 PTS, 1.0 3PM, 7.0 AST, 3.1 REB, 2.1 STL, 2.547 A/TO
Player B: .469/.851, 16.5, 8.8 REB, 2.0 OREB, 1.8 AST, 0.5 STL, 1.7 BLK, 1.438 A/TO
Player C: .550/.725, 17.9 PTS, 8.1 REB, 2.2 OREB, 2.4 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.8 BLK, 1.771 A/TO
The logic was that Conley (Player A) and Jefferson (Player B) had similar scoring, similar percentages, and that Millsap (Player C) was close enough to Jefferson, though he didn't qualify at C. Conely is a plus STL, AST and A/TO guy, and gives you some 3PM. The Thugs needed REB, OREB, BLK, and wanted some FG% in return, if they were going to move Conley.
As a total aside, there was also a secret, illogical reason for the request for Jefferson/Millsap. The O.N. Thugs wanted to have a 2nd good Jazz player on their roster so that they could enjoy watching Jazz games more (since the Jazz have become one of the Thugs' favorite real-life teams, now that D-Will is out there). In the original UPL Keeper Draft, the O.N. Thugs even chose Carlos Boozer over Dwight Howard for the reason that watching D-Will/Boozer for the next few years would be more fun/time-efficient. Yeah. Sometimes, trades work like that.
Westy balked at the 1 for 1, and countered with an improvement from his initial offer that included Tyson Chandler, but still was an awkward 2-for 1 deal for the O.N. Thugs' roster to take, and wasn't enough value to overwhelm the roster makeup.
The O.N. Thugs were intrigued at the possibility of reacquiring Chandler, a valuable part of O.N. Thugs championships in years past, and offered Cousins for Chandler, as a youth for veteran help now, which seems to be a fair deal, based on UPL moves in the past.
It seemed that Westy was OK with the Cousins/Chandler move, but it became clear that Westy still wanted Conley. Last last night, the offer of Cousins for Chandler, plus Conley for Millsap, plus Gallinari for Pierce was offered. If you put together the events from earlier in the negotiations (Westy's refusal to move Millsap for Conley; Cousins for Chandler seeming like a reasonable trade), the conclusion is that Gallinari has more value that Pierce. And if you look at the stats, both have awfully similar stats this year:
Player A: .400/.909, 15.3 PTS, 2.0 3PM, 4.9 REB, 0.9 OREB, 1.7 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.5 BLK, 2.048 A/TO
Player B: .497/.843, 18 PTS, 1.1 3PM, 4.7 REB, 0.3 OREB, 2.7 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.8 BLK, 1.575 A/TO
The key issue is that Gallinari's 11 years younger (and is Player A, above). In fact, across the entire trade, Westy picks up Conley (23), Gallinari (22), and Cousins (20), whereas the O.N. Thugs get Millsap (25), Chandler (30), and Pierce (33).
Of course, this is just the start of trading season. As teams figure out if they're rebuilding (i.e., Sparty) or contending (SMDB), a little more certainty will emerge. And somehow, the O.N. Thugs will keep finding ways to improve their team to make their annual late-season run at the title.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Friday, November 12, 2010
WakeupWithoutTheKing
We have our first blockbuster trade of the UPL Basketball season.
Lebron James going to the Milwaukee Bricks
Joakim Noah and Eric Gordon to Stephan, who will also have to rename his fantasy team. I've suggested WakeupWithoutTheKing as an option.
This will either be the most brilliant or the most idiotic trade in the history of the UPL.
Let's break it down.
LeBron, typical: 29.5 PTS, 1.5 3PM, 49.5% FG, 76% FT, 1.1 OREB, 7.1 REB, 7.5 AST, 1.7 STL, 1 BLK, 2.1A/TO.
LeBron, this year: 22.2 PTS, 0.9 3PM, 44% FG, 79% FT, 0.2 OREB, 6 REB, 8.7 AST, 1.8 STL, 1 BLK, 2.0 A/TO
The major difference? His FG% has dipped, especially from 3. And he's taking about 4 fewer shots (including 2 fewer 3-pointers) per game. Also, his OREB's have gone down quite a bit, as well. Why is this happening? The Heat are playing at a tempo at about 102 points per game, virtually the same as what the Cavs did last year. The problem is that there are more players who actually want to score (and are actually good at it).
So why might you want to hang on to LBJ? His peripheral stats are still darned good. You're picking up an extra AST, though you're giving away an OREB in doing so. Everything else is basically the same. LBJ has likely peaked statistically (since it's really hard to do more than he has done the last few years). But if you believe that the Heat are going to keep playing at 102 points per game (and not 110 PPG), then you may need to temper your scoring expectations. So in that sense, now may be the perfect "sell high" opportunity. And he's not quite as untouchable as he would have been being a 1-man show in Cleveland or wherever else.
Which leads to the 2nd part of the equation. Joakim Noah and EJ Gordon
Gordon, this season: 21.1 PTS, 0.9 3PM, 47.7% FG, 76.6% FT, 0.6 OREB, 3.7 REB, 4.7 AST, 1.3 STL, 0.7 BLK, 1.375 A/TO.
Noah, this season: 15.9 PTS, 0 3PM, 52.6% FG, 77.5% FT, 4.1 OREB, 13.9 REB, 2.6 AST, 1.0, STL, 2.1 BLK, 1.286 A/TO.
Now, these numbers may improve a little bit for Gordon, as he develops (and by all accounts, he's getting better). He's largely limited to being a scorer, for fantasy purposes. And 21.1 PTS is good by any evaluation. However, I'd argue that if you are only going to get about 4 REB and 4 AST, (both below average for a UPL championship-caliber team), then you need to get a little more than 21.1 points (unless he's a real 3PM guy). This is sort of my argument against guys like Rip Hamilton, Jamal Crawford or Jason Terry.
On the other hand Noah has been tearing it up, scoring reasonably well, and leading the league in OREB and REB, and being a definite asset in BLK. He's scoring about 5-6 more points per game than last season, and this is coming from 3 more FG attempts and 2 more FT attempts. The major reason? 9 more minutes per game. Personally, I'd be a little suspect that this will stay the case throughout the season. Why? There's some dude named Boozer that the Bulls paid a lot of money for last season that will be coming back in a few weeks. In addition to scaling back to something like 32 minutes, there may be some other things decreasing. Given Noah's team-oriented nature (and Boozer's black-hole-ish game), he may be deferring on those extra shots on offense, and may give up a few of those REB. We shall see.
Of course, the comparison to similar trades should be made. Last season, there were only minor rumblings when the O.N. Thugs and SuckMyDribblingBalls swung a major trade. The Thugs acquired Kobe Bryant, and send Monta Ellis and David West over to SMDB. At the time, West was ranked somewhere in the high 20's, low 30's, Ellis was ranked in the 40's (coming off injury), and Kobe was ranked 5th, I believe. And Ellis was trending upward at the time. So, the idea is that it would take roughly two 3rd round picks to get a clear first round pick. And since then both parties have been pretty happy with the results. Kobe's done his thing (despite gimping around the last half of the season in 2009-10), Ellis has gone nuts for a bad GS team, and David West keeps churning out games of 19 and 8 with high efficiency.
Now, given that LBJ is much younger than Kobe, in a keeper league, you'd expect a premium to what was paid for Kobe. I'm not sure if Gordon and Noah would be better than Ellis and West. Ellis is clearly better than Gordon (about 5 PTS , 1 more REB, about 2 more STL per game, and 51.1% FG). West is a little older, and has been unselfish (and let Okafor get more established), so his numbers of dropped off a bit this year as he's gone from 36 to 30 minutes per game. Noah is getting about 6 more REB than West right now (scoring slightly favors West). But I'm not sure that the margin between Noah and West will be as high as it is now, once Boozer gets into the mix. Maybe you're getting a slight premium to Ellis/West. But I'd argue that LBJ should be getting a heavier premium to Kobe than that. That isn't to say that this trade doesn't help Stephan's team. Noah is the sort of player that definitely helps you win - single-handedly keeps you competitive in 3 categories, about neutral in PTS, and is a plus FG% guy.
Would an open market for LBJ have fetched more? Jeff - make sure that you're reading this next section, because I have a suspicion that you could get yourself 2 or 3 keeper pieces, which probably makes sense for your franchise. But I think that it would have. So in that sense (and I don't say this often), Jeff made a great trade. I don't know how many times those words show up in the same sentence here on the UPL Blog. So savor it :-)
I'd bet that C-Lauff would have at least thought about Carmelo and David Lee. Reasonable chance he bites on Carmelo and Horford. And he'd definitely move Carmelo and Collison. If you offer LBJ to OD, you can probably get D12 and Raymond Felton. Or Monta Ellis and Tim Duncan. Probably not D12 and Monta Ellis, though. From the O.N. Thugs, you 2 pieces out of Roy, Aldridge, Boozer, and maybe even Westbrook/Lopez. I'd guess that Robby would move 2 pieces out of Rondo, Z-Bo, Bosh, and Gay.
My prediction? Jeff plays this one savvy and moves LBJ again (maybe with another marginal keeper) and locks down 3 legit keepers that he can really build a team around.
Meanwhile, on a completely unrelated topic... Jeff, are you a Trail Blazers fan? They play basketball the right way, and two guys that really do it well are Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge.... and a guy with huge upside is DeMarcus Cousins. I really think that these guys would be a nice set of players to build a strong UPL franchise around...
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Lebron James going to the Milwaukee Bricks
Joakim Noah and Eric Gordon to Stephan, who will also have to rename his fantasy team. I've suggested WakeupWithoutTheKing as an option.
This will either be the most brilliant or the most idiotic trade in the history of the UPL.
Let's break it down.
LeBron, typical: 29.5 PTS, 1.5 3PM, 49.5% FG, 76% FT, 1.1 OREB, 7.1 REB, 7.5 AST, 1.7 STL, 1 BLK, 2.1A/TO.
LeBron, this year: 22.2 PTS, 0.9 3PM, 44% FG, 79% FT, 0.2 OREB, 6 REB, 8.7 AST, 1.8 STL, 1 BLK, 2.0 A/TO
The major difference? His FG% has dipped, especially from 3. And he's taking about 4 fewer shots (including 2 fewer 3-pointers) per game. Also, his OREB's have gone down quite a bit, as well. Why is this happening? The Heat are playing at a tempo at about 102 points per game, virtually the same as what the Cavs did last year. The problem is that there are more players who actually want to score (and are actually good at it).
So why might you want to hang on to LBJ? His peripheral stats are still darned good. You're picking up an extra AST, though you're giving away an OREB in doing so. Everything else is basically the same. LBJ has likely peaked statistically (since it's really hard to do more than he has done the last few years). But if you believe that the Heat are going to keep playing at 102 points per game (and not 110 PPG), then you may need to temper your scoring expectations. So in that sense, now may be the perfect "sell high" opportunity. And he's not quite as untouchable as he would have been being a 1-man show in Cleveland or wherever else.
Which leads to the 2nd part of the equation. Joakim Noah and EJ Gordon
Gordon, this season: 21.1 PTS, 0.9 3PM, 47.7% FG, 76.6% FT, 0.6 OREB, 3.7 REB, 4.7 AST, 1.3 STL, 0.7 BLK, 1.375 A/TO.
Noah, this season: 15.9 PTS, 0 3PM, 52.6% FG, 77.5% FT, 4.1 OREB, 13.9 REB, 2.6 AST, 1.0, STL, 2.1 BLK, 1.286 A/TO.
Now, these numbers may improve a little bit for Gordon, as he develops (and by all accounts, he's getting better). He's largely limited to being a scorer, for fantasy purposes. And 21.1 PTS is good by any evaluation. However, I'd argue that if you are only going to get about 4 REB and 4 AST, (both below average for a UPL championship-caliber team), then you need to get a little more than 21.1 points (unless he's a real 3PM guy). This is sort of my argument against guys like Rip Hamilton, Jamal Crawford or Jason Terry.
On the other hand Noah has been tearing it up, scoring reasonably well, and leading the league in OREB and REB, and being a definite asset in BLK. He's scoring about 5-6 more points per game than last season, and this is coming from 3 more FG attempts and 2 more FT attempts. The major reason? 9 more minutes per game. Personally, I'd be a little suspect that this will stay the case throughout the season. Why? There's some dude named Boozer that the Bulls paid a lot of money for last season that will be coming back in a few weeks. In addition to scaling back to something like 32 minutes, there may be some other things decreasing. Given Noah's team-oriented nature (and Boozer's black-hole-ish game), he may be deferring on those extra shots on offense, and may give up a few of those REB. We shall see.
Of course, the comparison to similar trades should be made. Last season, there were only minor rumblings when the O.N. Thugs and SuckMyDribblingBalls swung a major trade. The Thugs acquired Kobe Bryant, and send Monta Ellis and David West over to SMDB. At the time, West was ranked somewhere in the high 20's, low 30's, Ellis was ranked in the 40's (coming off injury), and Kobe was ranked 5th, I believe. And Ellis was trending upward at the time. So, the idea is that it would take roughly two 3rd round picks to get a clear first round pick. And since then both parties have been pretty happy with the results. Kobe's done his thing (despite gimping around the last half of the season in 2009-10), Ellis has gone nuts for a bad GS team, and David West keeps churning out games of 19 and 8 with high efficiency.
Now, given that LBJ is much younger than Kobe, in a keeper league, you'd expect a premium to what was paid for Kobe. I'm not sure if Gordon and Noah would be better than Ellis and West. Ellis is clearly better than Gordon (about 5 PTS , 1 more REB, about 2 more STL per game, and 51.1% FG). West is a little older, and has been unselfish (and let Okafor get more established), so his numbers of dropped off a bit this year as he's gone from 36 to 30 minutes per game. Noah is getting about 6 more REB than West right now (scoring slightly favors West). But I'm not sure that the margin between Noah and West will be as high as it is now, once Boozer gets into the mix. Maybe you're getting a slight premium to Ellis/West. But I'd argue that LBJ should be getting a heavier premium to Kobe than that. That isn't to say that this trade doesn't help Stephan's team. Noah is the sort of player that definitely helps you win - single-handedly keeps you competitive in 3 categories, about neutral in PTS, and is a plus FG% guy.
Would an open market for LBJ have fetched more? Jeff - make sure that you're reading this next section, because I have a suspicion that you could get yourself 2 or 3 keeper pieces, which probably makes sense for your franchise. But I think that it would have. So in that sense (and I don't say this often), Jeff made a great trade. I don't know how many times those words show up in the same sentence here on the UPL Blog. So savor it :-)
I'd bet that C-Lauff would have at least thought about Carmelo and David Lee. Reasonable chance he bites on Carmelo and Horford. And he'd definitely move Carmelo and Collison. If you offer LBJ to OD, you can probably get D12 and Raymond Felton. Or Monta Ellis and Tim Duncan. Probably not D12 and Monta Ellis, though. From the O.N. Thugs, you 2 pieces out of Roy, Aldridge, Boozer, and maybe even Westbrook/Lopez. I'd guess that Robby would move 2 pieces out of Rondo, Z-Bo, Bosh, and Gay.
My prediction? Jeff plays this one savvy and moves LBJ again (maybe with another marginal keeper) and locks down 3 legit keepers that he can really build a team around.
Meanwhile, on a completely unrelated topic... Jeff, are you a Trail Blazers fan? They play basketball the right way, and two guys that really do it well are Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge.... and a guy with huge upside is DeMarcus Cousins. I really think that these guys would be a nice set of players to build a strong UPL franchise around...
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
2010-11 UPL Basketball Fantasy Outlook
As we head off into the latest iteration of UPL Fantasy Hoops, the keeper era is well under way, and we definitely see how the sins and successes of the past have laid a path for the performance of today. The keeper era allows teams to keep 8 out of their 10 starters, which means that only 2 starters and the 4 bench players from a given season need to be replaced. So teams that are good one one year probably won't become awful the next year, barring major injuries. However, there's no guarantee that a championship team one year will automatically do it again the following year.
In fact, in our first two seasons, we've seen some heavy variance from our 1st year podium to our 2nd year podium. Back in 08-09, it was the O.N. Thugs and European Sellouts (aka WakeupWithTheKing) tied for 1st, and Sparty in 3rd (with IamJabrone, Chowtime, and Westy close behind in 4th, and tied for 5th, respectively). However, there was a bit of a shakeup in 09-10. The 4th Jabrones took the title, the O.N. Thugs slipped to 2nd, and SuckmyDribblingBalls rose from 7th place into 3rd. Sparty and Westy stayed in that 2nd tier. But the co-champion WakeupWithTheKing dropped all the way into 8th place. So what we've seen is that there's generally not a ton of movement, but it's possible to have massive rises/drops in performance. And when you look at what happened in UPL Baseball from 2009 to 2010, you'll see that there massive improvement could be even more common.
THE KEEPER STORY
Having said all that about team mobility, keepers matter a lot. If you recall, my analysis of last year's keepers was very favorable for the O.N. Thugs and IamJabrone. However, I allowed myself to be fooled when I placed the Jabrones lower in my actual season preview. In fairness, I thought that he botched the #1 draft pick (he did), and that the Hawks were going to tank (they didn't). Though Westy's team had highly ranked keepers, the makeup of that looked off (lots of age, and a hole as the 8th keeper), and didn't seem like it would be quite as strong as he was the previous season. And the keeper list suggested that WakeupWithTheKing was in for a bit of a struggle last year, which indeed was what happened. So what about 2010-11?
As you look through the rosters, in particular the keeper rosters, you see a clear top tier. IamJabrone and the O.N. Thugs finished 1st and 2nd last year, and are loaded again. When Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer are the lowest rated (by Yahoo! pre-rank) keepers on these two teams, you know that there are 8 solid options to start off. If things play out, like I think they will, we'll probably do a more in-depth breakdown of these two teams in the future.
Right behind these two teams is Love T'Wolves and last year's 3rd place team, SuckMyDribblingBalls. I liked Robby's keeper core from last year, though that hasn't really been added to, they run a legit 6 deep (Durant, Rondo, Bosh, Z-Bo, Gay, Love). Andre Miller and Michael Beasley are somewhat questionable, but could be solid pieces. For SMDB, having the improved D12 and ageless 'Ason Kidd (no J, much like his protegee Ra'on Rondo) leading off, followed by Monta Ellis, David West, and Timmy give a legit top 5. However, the other keepers (Raymond Felton, John Salmons, and Greg Oden) are question marks of varying degree.
I would say that the tier after this looks to be Sparty Rules, WakeupWithTheKing, and Chowtime. These are top-heavy teams with noticeable drops in quality.
Sparty has CP3, Chauncy Billups, and Marcus Camby. So the non-scoring stats should look awfully good. But with Bargnani, Troy Murphy, Jeff Green, Hedo, and Diaw, the rest of the keepers look suspect (at best). But any team with CP3 will have roster flexibility, because that one player will guarantee points in AST and A/TO.
The same story holds for WakeupWithTheKing. Any time you have LBJ, you'll compete because you'll be getting help in so many categories. Add on Steph Curry, Gerald Wallace, and you'll be competitive in rebounding and 3PM. Add on youngsters Tyreke Evans and Brandon Jennings, and you've got a nice core to start, though they may be a couple years away from really flourishing. OJ Mayo is still only a scorer, but is a reasonable keeper (though you'd like to improve there). The only major question mark is Bynum, with his injury history.
Chowtime is a bit more balanced, and has 4 awesome keepers, and 4 question marks. Any time you can lead off with Dirk, Granger, and Pau, and then follow up with Blake Griffin, you're starting off solid. However, when you go with guys like Manu and Yao, you're hoping for some luck. And I'm not sure that Chris Kaman and Tony Parker feel like keepers on a championship team.
Then you get to Westy's Ballers (or Impresarios or whatever the hell they are now). Given Westy's past UPL Basketball success, you'd assume that he'd be a top half team. But then you look at his keepers. AI 2.0, Big Al, The Other Gasol. A couple older guys in Baron Davis and Paul Pierce. Devin Harris. Anthony Randolph. Paul Millsap. I see some nice pieces. But you don't look at this team and think"podium." I look at this group, and I'm thinking 7th or 8th place.
After that, you run into three bottom-tier teams. Floor Burns, Milwaukee Bricks, and Phatsnapper all have rebuilding efforts in front of them, of varying degrees. Of the three, I'd say that Phatsnapper has the most talent, given the Nash/Stoudamire combo, but definitely needs to make some trades. The Bricks have a nice group of Eric Gordon, Joakim Noah, Nene, and Aaron Brooks to build around, but definitely need to get an infusion of young talent in there (and may need to try to pull off a 2 for 1 or a 3 for 1 sort of deal).
So off of the keepers, the UPL preview looks something like this:
Likely Championship Contenders: O.N. Thugs, IamJabrone
Possible Championship Contenders: Love T'Wolves, SuckMyDribblingBalls
Outside Shots at the Championship: Sparty, Chowtime, WakeupWithTheKing
Heading for Limbo: Westy's Impresarios
Rebuilding Now: Phatsnapper, Floor Burns, Milwaukee Bricks
DRAFT AND EARLY SEASON PICKUPS
The next step in the formula is to look at the actual draft, to see how things play out. And I'll be the first person to say it. The draft is huge for rebuilding teams, and for championship contending teams. For rebuilding teams, it's a chance to get at young talent. For championship teams, it's about rounding out your stats. When you brick a draft, you set yourself up for failure. Last year, I put myself behind the 8-ball in the draft when I overslept the draft, and ended up with the best white player available as my auto-pick motif (Spencer Hawes, Peja, etc.). Needless to say, I revamped my bench very early on in the season last year. On the other hand, when you luck out in the lottery like C-Lauff did last year, you get a huge advantage by jumping to the front of the line for superstars-in-waiting like Blake Griffin, who looks to be a double-double machine for the foreseeable future... er. Wait. Check that. You end up with guys like Anthony Randolph who... uh... can't get run on Westy's team.
And an extension of the draft is the early season pickups that you make, as real-life playing time gets sorted out. For rebuilding teams, the goal is to find young potential impact talent, to find potentially underpriced veteran talent, and otherwise tradeable pieces. The goal should be to worry less about rounding out a roster. The contending teams, the goals is to balance that upside with performance in specific stat categories (as the team's stat base should be largely set). So how did teams do?
The winner of the draft was the winner of the lottery, because this year, the lottery winner (Phatsnapper) took the #1 overall NBA draft pick, John Wall. Phatsnapper gets a keeper building block. They also got Evan Turner, who I'm not nearly as high on, but seems to be a reasonable investment. His roster still has a long way to go, but adding on 2 easy keepers makes this draft a win.
IamJabrone's moves have leaned toward stable, veteran players (Crawford, Rashard Lewis, Okur, Ibaka, Augustin). But has found a couple guards with (Augustin and Bledsoe), as he looks for this year's version of Darren Collison. On the other hand, the O.N. Thugs took slightly more balanced route, taking on some youth (Cousins and Favors) and some players for specific stats (Dalembert, Delfino), and buying low on some veterans (Conley, Hickson). Both teams seem to have helped themselves out, though I'm guessing that the benches will be pretty fluid throughout the season. I'd guess that the O.N. Thugs have more attractive trade pieces, and the Thugs seem to be able to pull of a useful move each season. But the draft doesn't really do much for separating the two teams.
I'd argue that Love T'Wolves helped themselves the most out of any non-Phatsnapper team in the draft, picking up 3PM help (Channing Frye and Ben Gordon), as well as some emerging talent in Roy Hibbert and Rodney Stuckey. I think that his draft should create a little separation from that of SMDB, who added a couple solid pieces in Elton Brand (who's been awesome thus far) and Jameer Nelson. However, SMDB seems to have whiffed with this remaining picks (George Hill, Barbosa, Heyward, and Dunleavy).
Chowtime took an interesting route by drafting young with Wesley Johnson, Derrick Favors, Jrue Holliday, Marcus Thornton, and Yi (in addition to the old veteran KG). But has since backtracked, moving Johnson and Favors for guys like Kirk Hinrich and Richard Jefferson. We'll see how that plays out, but the implication is that this is going to be a run for this year, rather than trying to rebuild for 2011-12.
The opposite of what Chowtime did was what Sparty did in the draft. All vets. AK-47, Tyrus Thomas, Brendan Haywood, Jarrett Jack, Mike Miller, Beno Udrih. The implication is that he's trying to win now. However, Sparty's roster is starting to look like the Milwaukee Bricks, plus CP3. I'm not sure if that's enough to win, and that draft doesn't give you as many trade options with rebuilding teams. Westy took a similar approach, hoping for bounce-back seasons from veterans (Caron Butler, Luol Deng, Kleiza), and an improvement due to change in scenery (Dorrell Wright). Unfortunately, Westy's team is looking like it's going to become the Milwaukee Bricks, without CP3. It'll take some savvy moves (and maybe swallowing a bitter pill this year) to keep that from happening.
WakeupWithTheKing has the biggest lottery ticket of the draft in Gilbert Arenas. His roster leans young anyway, so adding some veterans into the mix could help reduce some of that variance. But the rest of the draft doesn't seem to have revealed a difference maker. Similar story for the Bricks and Floor Burns, who may have found some reasonable pieces (Biedrins, Robin Lopez, Drew Gooden for Bricks; Blatche, McGee, Young, and J.R. Smith for Floor Burns). But you don't get the impression that there's going to be a major change from the draft. The major difference is that WakeupWithTheKing started his rebuilding last year (Brandon Jennings, Tyreke Evans, Steph Curry who is not Blake Griffin), and is probably going to be back in the top half of the league this year. The same can not be said for Floor Burns or the Bricks.
So where does this have things shake out?
Likely Championship Battle: O.N. Thugs, IamJabrone, Love T'Wolves
Fighting for a Podium Spot: SuckMyDribblingBalls, Chowtime, WakeupWithTheKing
Stuck in Limbo: Sparty Rules, Westy's Impresarios
Rebuilding: Phatsnapper, Floor Burns, Milwaukee Bricks
Overall, there are a lot of moving parts to consider. You've got 3 teams that should finish in the top half, and 3 teams that will finish in the bottom half. How the 5 teams in the middle compete will really influence how the points are distributed in the league. I have a suspicion that one or two major trades, and perhaps one or two random free agents will influence how everything plays out. Given the relatively tight competition 1 through 8, the makeup of this list could change drastically.
But like I always say, I never bet against the O.N. Thugs.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
In fact, in our first two seasons, we've seen some heavy variance from our 1st year podium to our 2nd year podium. Back in 08-09, it was the O.N. Thugs and European Sellouts (aka WakeupWithTheKing) tied for 1st, and Sparty in 3rd (with IamJabrone, Chowtime, and Westy close behind in 4th, and tied for 5th, respectively). However, there was a bit of a shakeup in 09-10. The 4th Jabrones took the title, the O.N. Thugs slipped to 2nd, and SuckmyDribblingBalls rose from 7th place into 3rd. Sparty and Westy stayed in that 2nd tier. But the co-champion WakeupWithTheKing dropped all the way into 8th place. So what we've seen is that there's generally not a ton of movement, but it's possible to have massive rises/drops in performance. And when you look at what happened in UPL Baseball from 2009 to 2010, you'll see that there massive improvement could be even more common.
THE KEEPER STORY
Having said all that about team mobility, keepers matter a lot. If you recall, my analysis of last year's keepers was very favorable for the O.N. Thugs and IamJabrone. However, I allowed myself to be fooled when I placed the Jabrones lower in my actual season preview. In fairness, I thought that he botched the #1 draft pick (he did), and that the Hawks were going to tank (they didn't). Though Westy's team had highly ranked keepers, the makeup of that looked off (lots of age, and a hole as the 8th keeper), and didn't seem like it would be quite as strong as he was the previous season. And the keeper list suggested that WakeupWithTheKing was in for a bit of a struggle last year, which indeed was what happened. So what about 2010-11?
As you look through the rosters, in particular the keeper rosters, you see a clear top tier. IamJabrone and the O.N. Thugs finished 1st and 2nd last year, and are loaded again. When Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer are the lowest rated (by Yahoo! pre-rank) keepers on these two teams, you know that there are 8 solid options to start off. If things play out, like I think they will, we'll probably do a more in-depth breakdown of these two teams in the future.
Right behind these two teams is Love T'Wolves and last year's 3rd place team, SuckMyDribblingBalls. I liked Robby's keeper core from last year, though that hasn't really been added to, they run a legit 6 deep (Durant, Rondo, Bosh, Z-Bo, Gay, Love). Andre Miller and Michael Beasley are somewhat questionable, but could be solid pieces. For SMDB, having the improved D12 and ageless 'Ason Kidd (no J, much like his protegee Ra'on Rondo) leading off, followed by Monta Ellis, David West, and Timmy give a legit top 5. However, the other keepers (Raymond Felton, John Salmons, and Greg Oden) are question marks of varying degree.
I would say that the tier after this looks to be Sparty Rules, WakeupWithTheKing, and Chowtime. These are top-heavy teams with noticeable drops in quality.
Sparty has CP3, Chauncy Billups, and Marcus Camby. So the non-scoring stats should look awfully good. But with Bargnani, Troy Murphy, Jeff Green, Hedo, and Diaw, the rest of the keepers look suspect (at best). But any team with CP3 will have roster flexibility, because that one player will guarantee points in AST and A/TO.
The same story holds for WakeupWithTheKing. Any time you have LBJ, you'll compete because you'll be getting help in so many categories. Add on Steph Curry, Gerald Wallace, and you'll be competitive in rebounding and 3PM. Add on youngsters Tyreke Evans and Brandon Jennings, and you've got a nice core to start, though they may be a couple years away from really flourishing. OJ Mayo is still only a scorer, but is a reasonable keeper (though you'd like to improve there). The only major question mark is Bynum, with his injury history.
Chowtime is a bit more balanced, and has 4 awesome keepers, and 4 question marks. Any time you can lead off with Dirk, Granger, and Pau, and then follow up with Blake Griffin, you're starting off solid. However, when you go with guys like Manu and Yao, you're hoping for some luck. And I'm not sure that Chris Kaman and Tony Parker feel like keepers on a championship team.
Then you get to Westy's Ballers (or Impresarios or whatever the hell they are now). Given Westy's past UPL Basketball success, you'd assume that he'd be a top half team. But then you look at his keepers. AI 2.0, Big Al, The Other Gasol. A couple older guys in Baron Davis and Paul Pierce. Devin Harris. Anthony Randolph. Paul Millsap. I see some nice pieces. But you don't look at this team and think"podium." I look at this group, and I'm thinking 7th or 8th place.
After that, you run into three bottom-tier teams. Floor Burns, Milwaukee Bricks, and Phatsnapper all have rebuilding efforts in front of them, of varying degrees. Of the three, I'd say that Phatsnapper has the most talent, given the Nash/Stoudamire combo, but definitely needs to make some trades. The Bricks have a nice group of Eric Gordon, Joakim Noah, Nene, and Aaron Brooks to build around, but definitely need to get an infusion of young talent in there (and may need to try to pull off a 2 for 1 or a 3 for 1 sort of deal).
So off of the keepers, the UPL preview looks something like this:
Likely Championship Contenders: O.N. Thugs, IamJabrone
Possible Championship Contenders: Love T'Wolves, SuckMyDribblingBalls
Outside Shots at the Championship: Sparty, Chowtime, WakeupWithTheKing
Heading for Limbo: Westy's Impresarios
Rebuilding Now: Phatsnapper, Floor Burns, Milwaukee Bricks
DRAFT AND EARLY SEASON PICKUPS
The next step in the formula is to look at the actual draft, to see how things play out. And I'll be the first person to say it. The draft is huge for rebuilding teams, and for championship contending teams. For rebuilding teams, it's a chance to get at young talent. For championship teams, it's about rounding out your stats. When you brick a draft, you set yourself up for failure. Last year, I put myself behind the 8-ball in the draft when I overslept the draft, and ended up with the best white player available as my auto-pick motif (Spencer Hawes, Peja, etc.). Needless to say, I revamped my bench very early on in the season last year. On the other hand, when you luck out in the lottery like C-Lauff did last year, you get a huge advantage by jumping to the front of the line for superstars-in-waiting like Blake Griffin, who looks to be a double-double machine for the foreseeable future... er. Wait. Check that. You end up with guys like Anthony Randolph who... uh... can't get run on Westy's team.
And an extension of the draft is the early season pickups that you make, as real-life playing time gets sorted out. For rebuilding teams, the goal is to find young potential impact talent, to find potentially underpriced veteran talent, and otherwise tradeable pieces. The goal should be to worry less about rounding out a roster. The contending teams, the goals is to balance that upside with performance in specific stat categories (as the team's stat base should be largely set). So how did teams do?
The winner of the draft was the winner of the lottery, because this year, the lottery winner (Phatsnapper) took the #1 overall NBA draft pick, John Wall. Phatsnapper gets a keeper building block. They also got Evan Turner, who I'm not nearly as high on, but seems to be a reasonable investment. His roster still has a long way to go, but adding on 2 easy keepers makes this draft a win.
IamJabrone's moves have leaned toward stable, veteran players (Crawford, Rashard Lewis, Okur, Ibaka, Augustin). But has found a couple guards with (Augustin and Bledsoe), as he looks for this year's version of Darren Collison. On the other hand, the O.N. Thugs took slightly more balanced route, taking on some youth (Cousins and Favors) and some players for specific stats (Dalembert, Delfino), and buying low on some veterans (Conley, Hickson). Both teams seem to have helped themselves out, though I'm guessing that the benches will be pretty fluid throughout the season. I'd guess that the O.N. Thugs have more attractive trade pieces, and the Thugs seem to be able to pull of a useful move each season. But the draft doesn't really do much for separating the two teams.
I'd argue that Love T'Wolves helped themselves the most out of any non-Phatsnapper team in the draft, picking up 3PM help (Channing Frye and Ben Gordon), as well as some emerging talent in Roy Hibbert and Rodney Stuckey. I think that his draft should create a little separation from that of SMDB, who added a couple solid pieces in Elton Brand (who's been awesome thus far) and Jameer Nelson. However, SMDB seems to have whiffed with this remaining picks (George Hill, Barbosa, Heyward, and Dunleavy).
Chowtime took an interesting route by drafting young with Wesley Johnson, Derrick Favors, Jrue Holliday, Marcus Thornton, and Yi (in addition to the old veteran KG). But has since backtracked, moving Johnson and Favors for guys like Kirk Hinrich and Richard Jefferson. We'll see how that plays out, but the implication is that this is going to be a run for this year, rather than trying to rebuild for 2011-12.
The opposite of what Chowtime did was what Sparty did in the draft. All vets. AK-47, Tyrus Thomas, Brendan Haywood, Jarrett Jack, Mike Miller, Beno Udrih. The implication is that he's trying to win now. However, Sparty's roster is starting to look like the Milwaukee Bricks, plus CP3. I'm not sure if that's enough to win, and that draft doesn't give you as many trade options with rebuilding teams. Westy took a similar approach, hoping for bounce-back seasons from veterans (Caron Butler, Luol Deng, Kleiza), and an improvement due to change in scenery (Dorrell Wright). Unfortunately, Westy's team is looking like it's going to become the Milwaukee Bricks, without CP3. It'll take some savvy moves (and maybe swallowing a bitter pill this year) to keep that from happening.
WakeupWithTheKing has the biggest lottery ticket of the draft in Gilbert Arenas. His roster leans young anyway, so adding some veterans into the mix could help reduce some of that variance. But the rest of the draft doesn't seem to have revealed a difference maker. Similar story for the Bricks and Floor Burns, who may have found some reasonable pieces (Biedrins, Robin Lopez, Drew Gooden for Bricks; Blatche, McGee, Young, and J.R. Smith for Floor Burns). But you don't get the impression that there's going to be a major change from the draft. The major difference is that WakeupWithTheKing started his rebuilding last year (Brandon Jennings, Tyreke Evans, Steph Curry who is not Blake Griffin), and is probably going to be back in the top half of the league this year. The same can not be said for Floor Burns or the Bricks.
So where does this have things shake out?
Likely Championship Battle: O.N. Thugs, IamJabrone, Love T'Wolves
Fighting for a Podium Spot: SuckMyDribblingBalls, Chowtime, WakeupWithTheKing
Stuck in Limbo: Sparty Rules, Westy's Impresarios
Rebuilding: Phatsnapper, Floor Burns, Milwaukee Bricks
Overall, there are a lot of moving parts to consider. You've got 3 teams that should finish in the top half, and 3 teams that will finish in the bottom half. How the 5 teams in the middle compete will really influence how the points are distributed in the league. I have a suspicion that one or two major trades, and perhaps one or two random free agents will influence how everything plays out. Given the relatively tight competition 1 through 8, the makeup of this list could change drastically.
But like I always say, I never bet against the O.N. Thugs.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Saturday, July 31, 2010
The Anatomy of a Blockbuster: A New (Cabr)Era
ACT I - SOME HISTORY
Trades involving truly big names are hard to come by in the UPL, where teams have historically preferred the status quo. The O.N. Thugs are generally not a huge player on the trade market, preferring to tinker in free agency. They made a big trade when they were sure they had a loaded offense early on, and traded for Pedro Martinez back in 2003, sending over Manny and another hitter (Robbie Alomar, maybe?) to OD. Even after the trade, the O.N. Thugs featured probably the best offense in the history of UPL baseball, winning 64 out of 66 possible points on offense (11 team league). They team featured Bonds, Pujols, and Delgado, and also had Reggie Sanders, Jose Guillen, and Preston Wilson hit over 30 HR (Wilson had 141 RBI that year). Add in speed from Carl Crawford, Scott Podsednik, Rafael Furcal, and a speculative pickup of Mark Teixeira, and you had a ridiculous offense. This team ended up hitting .391/.527 (the team put up a .918 OPS - yikes!), with 1031 R, 294 HR, 980 RBI, and 125 SB.
Over the last few years, the O.N. Thugs have not quite been able to replicate this offense (not even the 2004 O.N. Thugs, probably the best team in UPL Baseball history, though they were built on pitching first). It got to the point in 2009, where a failure on offense (ironically, led by Carlos Delgado's injuries - well, maybe not so ironic given his age) led to the lowest finish ever by the O.N. Thugs, 4th place. So something had to give. The O.N. Thugs had been fairly disciplined in their approach to the keeper era, working to acquire young, high ceiling talent, which is in stark contrast to the O.N. Thugs' traditional road to victory, which employed established veterans. They had also managed to hang on to their waiver priority, and managed to luck into Buster Posey, when he was dropped by IamJabrone, right at the start of his hot streak.
The Cheeseheads were a team that had been stuck in the middle of the pack throughout it's UPL history, and the keeper era was no exception. This team featured some very high-end talent, in the form of Miguel Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Carl Crawford. They also had some potentially solid parts in Geovany Soto and Adam Lind. And they had some veterans who were going to be kept for a few more years Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Pena, and Vernon Wells. Unfortunately, the pitching looked suspect - Matt Cain was the best of the bunch, and only Rafael Soriano was actually performing well at closer (though John Axford had established himself as the closer in MIL). Gavin Floyd, Clayton Richard, Ted Lilly, Ian Kennedy, Randy Wells, Anibal Sanchez, and Jason Vargas didn't strike you as the sort of guys that you wanted to build a franchise around - they were nice pieces to take a chance on, and hope for the best.
ACT II - REBUILDING
The O.N. Thugs were chatting with JimmyDix, about potential trade ideas, when JimmyDix noted that Cheeseheads were looking to rebuild. Immediately, the thought of Miggy being available in the UPL caught the imaginations of both the O.N. Thugs and JimmyDix. The O.N. Thugs had inquired about Carlos Pena earlier in the season, but talks never moved past an initial, random offer. But now, with rebuilding officially on the way, some thoughts started swirling. The major goal was to be able to make a move for a top tier player (either Miggy or Tulo), without sacrificing the ability to win in 2010. Unfortunately, right before the trade talks started up, Jake Peavy had sustained a season-ending injury, which left the O.N. Thugs with only Lincecum, Carpenter, Kershaw, and Cecil as starters, Vincente Padilla recently picked up, and with Volquez about the come off the DL. So, starting pitching really couldn't be moved.
At this point, Corey Hart was at the tail end of his HR binge, so the Thugs were looking to sell high. And the Thugs also had a fairly long list of keepable talent of varying quality and age that could have been moved (Russell Martin, Elvis Andrus, Dexter Fowler, Shin-Soo Choo, Daniel Bard, Aroldis Chapman, Joe Nathan) without really hurting the 2010 team's chances (Choo was on the DL at that point). Some initial offers involving Corey Hart as a major component failed (despite the Cheeseheads presumed affinity for all things Milwaukee). And a counter-offer was made on July 17. Miguel Cabrera for Buster Posey and Clayton Kershaw.
At this point, the basic price was set. Two high end, young players. And the O.N. Thugs were pretty sure that a deal could get done, so confident that they had sent out a message to JimmyDix on the night of July 17 indicating a likely press conference within the next 48 hours. But the problem of the O.N. Thugs' lack of SP still remained.
ACT III - LOOKING FOR PLAN B
Posey was gaining national recognition, and was putting up .410/.570 sort of production, which is ridiculous at C. But he was somewhat superfluous at C, with Jorge Posada still producing well. Of course the raw production of Cabrera made that sort of move palatable. So that part of the equation was OK. But Clayton Kershaw was a different story. His 2010 stats were awfuly good: 10-5, 2.96/1.22 with 138K in 130.2IP. But the key stat was "22." As in his age in 2010. But the dearth of SP for the Thugs made the other part of the equation too expensive. The Thugs decided that this couldn't happen, unless some SP could be acquired, or a different piece was involved.
At this point, Volquez had made his first start, and looked spectacular. So moving a starting pitcher became a possibility, but the Thugs front office remained firm on Kershaw, particularly if Posey was going to be involved. So there was some work to be done.
So, Brett Cecil was the piece that the Thugs tried to market. Cecil, for whatever reason, hadn't caught the imagination of a lot of fantasy folks, who prefer Ricky Romero as the sexy prospect in TOR. But Cecil was 1 year younger, was 8-5 in over 100IP in 2010, and had a very respectable 3.89/1.16 with 6.3 K/9. He also had a strikeout pedigree from the minors (228K in 228.1 IP) similar to Jon Lester's (446K in 483.2 IP).
So a counter-offer was made on July 18. Buster Posey, Brett Cecil, and Aroldis Chapman for Miggy. This was three pieces, two of which were producing at the major league level, and one a large lottery ticket. This trade was quickly rejected, and the O.N. Thugs quietly hit the pavement, looking for pitching help, that would have made losing Kershaw palatable. An inquiry about Roy Oswalt were made to the Whiffers , who were in last place and should have been looking to rebuild. Chapman and Bard were made available. But the Whiffers politely declined. An inquiry was made about Shawn Marcum, but the price was a bit on the high side. The JimmyDix announced that they were possibly moving Cliff Lee. Some talks started, with Bard, Cecil, Chapman, and Peavy being offered for Cliff Lee and B.J. Upton (who JimmyDix has been shopping). But that offer was rejected on 7/25. At this point, there had been no new communications from Cheeseheads. And without the ability to find SP to replace the production of Kershaw, the Thugs could not pull the trigger on the trade and still feel comfortable about their chances in 2010. It appeared that Miggy was not going to be an O.N. Thug.
ACT IV - RESOLUTION
At this point, the Miggy for Posey and Kershaw trade had been in play for 8 days. Trades are automatically canceled by Yahoo! after 10 days. The O.N. Thugs' front office made the decision that they weren't going to bid against themselves in this trade. A quick look across the UPL suggested that the only teams that had the pieces to really make a run at Miggy were Phatsnapper and Black Sox. But, it appeared that Phatsnapper was content with his offense , and neither Phatsnapper, nor Black Sox, seemed inclined to move their core, young pitching. JimmyDix had deemed Lester to be untouchable, and would have been selling his other young talent at a low price. Other teams teams like IamJabrone, Westy's Sluggers, or '90 Reds didn't have the depth of keepable, young talent to move.
At the same times, they were keeping an eye on 2011, and was pretty content with the direction of the team. Posey and Posada formed the best quality/depth at C in the UPL. Dunn, Jeter, Wright, Choo, and Markakis could be counted on for solid production. Andrus was the SS-in-waiting. And the core of the pitching staff was still Lincecum, Kershaw, Carpenter, Volquez, Soria, K-Rod, and Bailey. Being able to hold on to Nathan and Bard until mid-March would add certainty to the keeper decisions. And choosing from Cecil, Willingham, Hart, and Fowler as the 18th keeper wouldn't be a terrible option.
The Thugs were ready to move forward with this team, so they moved Russell Martin for Howie Kendrick, mainly with the intention of getting some value for Martin, and having Kendrick help make up some games at 2B, with a slight chance of being a keeper in 2011. The front office figured that they'd be able to create some offense through team management, and making up another 4 or 5 games at 2B would be good enough.
The Thugs were about the prepare a thank-you note for Cheeseheads, and officially decline the trade, when another trade offer showed up. Buster Posey, Aroldis Chapman, Daniel Bard, and Joe Nathan for Miggy and Joel Zumaya. Joel Zumaya was completely irrelevant in this trade. He was an injury prone set-up man, who was stuck behind Jose Valverde even when he was healthy. What required a little thought was the inclusion of Bard and Nathan, over Cecil.
Bard was already contributing this year (1.84/0.86 with 51K in 49IP), and pitched at a similar level in 2008. The rampant speculation amongst Red Sox folks (in particular Bill Simmons, which makes it folk wisdom amongst the masses) was that Papelbon was going to be moved at some point, since someone was going to sign him to a 4-year, $56 million sort of deal in free agency, and that Bard was going to take over at some point in 2011 or 2012 at the latest. The story with Joe Nathan was that he had Tommy John surgery back in April, and was out of 2010. His rehab had started, and he was projected to be ready for spring training. His value was in his contract. He was signed through 2011, with a club option for 2012. This meant that the Twins were going to have him as their closer, as long as he was healthy. For small market teams, money matters, and a guy making $11 million was going to get first dibs at a money position. Combined, these two looked to be valuable pieces, particularly in 2011. If either one of them came through, then someone like K-Rod could be shopped for a frontline player.
What tipped the deal was that none of the pieces, save Posey, would really change the championship calculus for the O.N. Thugs in 2010. Chapman's a 2011-12 lottery ticket. Nathan was on the DL all year, and is a 2011 piece. Bard was helping the rate stats, but similar production could be found. Obviously, losing Posey makes C a much more tenuous position for the O.N. Thugs. But the thought is that Miggy's numbers would more than make up for it in 2010. And the biggest factor for the O.N. Thugs' 2010 chances is that neither Kershaw nor Cecil were moved (which has been doubly important with Volquez being smacked around his last 2 starts). So, with that a new (Cabr)Era in O.N. Thugs history has started.
EPILOGUE?
The O.N. Thugs still have some speculative talent, to go with the established talent. Miggy, Wright, Dunn, and Choo appear to be the offensive cornerstones. Jeter and Posada have at least one more year of keepable value, and Andrus is the SS-in-waiting. Markakis is still a bit of a question mark, but will be adequate at the very least. Lincecum, Carpenter, Kershaw, Cecil, and Volquez anchor a strong rotation. Soria, K-Rod, and Bailey form a good bullpen. And the Thugs have two more spots to choose from Hart, Willingham, Fowler, Kendrick, Peavy, Porcello, Morrow, and Venters. This makes for a competitive keeper roster, particularly on the pitching side of things. This was very similar to how the O.N. Thugs entered 2010. With a major difference being the addition of Miguel Cabrera.
The Cheeseheads may still be rebuilding, but at the very least add more depth to their discussion. Posey, Tulo, Crawford, Soto, Soriano, Ike Davis, and Carlos Pena seem to be players that you have to keep. Probably Adam Lind, as well. With regard to pitching, Cain, Rafael Soriano, Axford, Chapman, Bard, and Nathan are guys that will be committed to, and Clayton Richard, Gavin Floyd are likely keepers, as well. After that, you will have two choices between guys like Vernon Wells, Raul Ibanez, Ian Kennedy, David Aardsma, Jason Vargas, Randy Wells, and Ted Lilly. The story of this trade for the Cheeseheads is that they will get to choose from a deeper crop of keepers with much higher ceilings for 2011 and beyond.
As for the future? That's still to be written. If this ends up with another O.N. Thugs Championship, then the trade's a resounding victory. When you're gunning for championships, you take your runs when you can without wrecking your future, your happy. And even if the future for the pieces you move end up being great, so long as your team is still great, you're still happy.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Trades involving truly big names are hard to come by in the UPL, where teams have historically preferred the status quo. The O.N. Thugs are generally not a huge player on the trade market, preferring to tinker in free agency. They made a big trade when they were sure they had a loaded offense early on, and traded for Pedro Martinez back in 2003, sending over Manny and another hitter (Robbie Alomar, maybe?) to OD. Even after the trade, the O.N. Thugs featured probably the best offense in the history of UPL baseball, winning 64 out of 66 possible points on offense (11 team league). They team featured Bonds, Pujols, and Delgado, and also had Reggie Sanders, Jose Guillen, and Preston Wilson hit over 30 HR (Wilson had 141 RBI that year). Add in speed from Carl Crawford, Scott Podsednik, Rafael Furcal, and a speculative pickup of Mark Teixeira, and you had a ridiculous offense. This team ended up hitting .391/.527 (the team put up a .918 OPS - yikes!), with 1031 R, 294 HR, 980 RBI, and 125 SB.
Over the last few years, the O.N. Thugs have not quite been able to replicate this offense (not even the 2004 O.N. Thugs, probably the best team in UPL Baseball history, though they were built on pitching first). It got to the point in 2009, where a failure on offense (ironically, led by Carlos Delgado's injuries - well, maybe not so ironic given his age) led to the lowest finish ever by the O.N. Thugs, 4th place. So something had to give. The O.N. Thugs had been fairly disciplined in their approach to the keeper era, working to acquire young, high ceiling talent, which is in stark contrast to the O.N. Thugs' traditional road to victory, which employed established veterans. They had also managed to hang on to their waiver priority, and managed to luck into Buster Posey, when he was dropped by IamJabrone, right at the start of his hot streak.
The Cheeseheads were a team that had been stuck in the middle of the pack throughout it's UPL history, and the keeper era was no exception. This team featured some very high-end talent, in the form of Miguel Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Carl Crawford. They also had some potentially solid parts in Geovany Soto and Adam Lind. And they had some veterans who were going to be kept for a few more years Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Pena, and Vernon Wells. Unfortunately, the pitching looked suspect - Matt Cain was the best of the bunch, and only Rafael Soriano was actually performing well at closer (though John Axford had established himself as the closer in MIL). Gavin Floyd, Clayton Richard, Ted Lilly, Ian Kennedy, Randy Wells, Anibal Sanchez, and Jason Vargas didn't strike you as the sort of guys that you wanted to build a franchise around - they were nice pieces to take a chance on, and hope for the best.
ACT II - REBUILDING
The O.N. Thugs were chatting with JimmyDix, about potential trade ideas, when JimmyDix noted that Cheeseheads were looking to rebuild. Immediately, the thought of Miggy being available in the UPL caught the imaginations of both the O.N. Thugs and JimmyDix. The O.N. Thugs had inquired about Carlos Pena earlier in the season, but talks never moved past an initial, random offer. But now, with rebuilding officially on the way, some thoughts started swirling. The major goal was to be able to make a move for a top tier player (either Miggy or Tulo), without sacrificing the ability to win in 2010. Unfortunately, right before the trade talks started up, Jake Peavy had sustained a season-ending injury, which left the O.N. Thugs with only Lincecum, Carpenter, Kershaw, and Cecil as starters, Vincente Padilla recently picked up, and with Volquez about the come off the DL. So, starting pitching really couldn't be moved.
At this point, Corey Hart was at the tail end of his HR binge, so the Thugs were looking to sell high. And the Thugs also had a fairly long list of keepable talent of varying quality and age that could have been moved (Russell Martin, Elvis Andrus, Dexter Fowler, Shin-Soo Choo, Daniel Bard, Aroldis Chapman, Joe Nathan) without really hurting the 2010 team's chances (Choo was on the DL at that point). Some initial offers involving Corey Hart as a major component failed (despite the Cheeseheads presumed affinity for all things Milwaukee). And a counter-offer was made on July 17. Miguel Cabrera for Buster Posey and Clayton Kershaw.
At this point, the basic price was set. Two high end, young players. And the O.N. Thugs were pretty sure that a deal could get done, so confident that they had sent out a message to JimmyDix on the night of July 17 indicating a likely press conference within the next 48 hours. But the problem of the O.N. Thugs' lack of SP still remained.
ACT III - LOOKING FOR PLAN B
Posey was gaining national recognition, and was putting up .410/.570 sort of production, which is ridiculous at C. But he was somewhat superfluous at C, with Jorge Posada still producing well. Of course the raw production of Cabrera made that sort of move palatable. So that part of the equation was OK. But Clayton Kershaw was a different story. His 2010 stats were awfuly good: 10-5, 2.96/1.22 with 138K in 130.2IP. But the key stat was "22." As in his age in 2010. But the dearth of SP for the Thugs made the other part of the equation too expensive. The Thugs decided that this couldn't happen, unless some SP could be acquired, or a different piece was involved.
At this point, Volquez had made his first start, and looked spectacular. So moving a starting pitcher became a possibility, but the Thugs front office remained firm on Kershaw, particularly if Posey was going to be involved. So there was some work to be done.
So, Brett Cecil was the piece that the Thugs tried to market. Cecil, for whatever reason, hadn't caught the imagination of a lot of fantasy folks, who prefer Ricky Romero as the sexy prospect in TOR. But Cecil was 1 year younger, was 8-5 in over 100IP in 2010, and had a very respectable 3.89/1.16 with 6.3 K/9. He also had a strikeout pedigree from the minors (228K in 228.1 IP) similar to Jon Lester's (446K in 483.2 IP).
So a counter-offer was made on July 18. Buster Posey, Brett Cecil, and Aroldis Chapman for Miggy. This was three pieces, two of which were producing at the major league level, and one a large lottery ticket. This trade was quickly rejected, and the O.N. Thugs quietly hit the pavement, looking for pitching help, that would have made losing Kershaw palatable. An inquiry about Roy Oswalt were made to the Whiffers , who were in last place and should have been looking to rebuild. Chapman and Bard were made available. But the Whiffers politely declined. An inquiry was made about Shawn Marcum, but the price was a bit on the high side. The JimmyDix announced that they were possibly moving Cliff Lee. Some talks started, with Bard, Cecil, Chapman, and Peavy being offered for Cliff Lee and B.J. Upton (who JimmyDix has been shopping). But that offer was rejected on 7/25. At this point, there had been no new communications from Cheeseheads. And without the ability to find SP to replace the production of Kershaw, the Thugs could not pull the trigger on the trade and still feel comfortable about their chances in 2010. It appeared that Miggy was not going to be an O.N. Thug.
ACT IV - RESOLUTION
At this point, the Miggy for Posey and Kershaw trade had been in play for 8 days. Trades are automatically canceled by Yahoo! after 10 days. The O.N. Thugs' front office made the decision that they weren't going to bid against themselves in this trade. A quick look across the UPL suggested that the only teams that had the pieces to really make a run at Miggy were Phatsnapper and Black Sox. But, it appeared that Phatsnapper was content with his offense , and neither Phatsnapper, nor Black Sox, seemed inclined to move their core, young pitching. JimmyDix had deemed Lester to be untouchable, and would have been selling his other young talent at a low price. Other teams teams like IamJabrone, Westy's Sluggers, or '90 Reds didn't have the depth of keepable, young talent to move.
At the same times, they were keeping an eye on 2011, and was pretty content with the direction of the team. Posey and Posada formed the best quality/depth at C in the UPL. Dunn, Jeter, Wright, Choo, and Markakis could be counted on for solid production. Andrus was the SS-in-waiting. And the core of the pitching staff was still Lincecum, Kershaw, Carpenter, Volquez, Soria, K-Rod, and Bailey. Being able to hold on to Nathan and Bard until mid-March would add certainty to the keeper decisions. And choosing from Cecil, Willingham, Hart, and Fowler as the 18th keeper wouldn't be a terrible option.
The Thugs were ready to move forward with this team, so they moved Russell Martin for Howie Kendrick, mainly with the intention of getting some value for Martin, and having Kendrick help make up some games at 2B, with a slight chance of being a keeper in 2011. The front office figured that they'd be able to create some offense through team management, and making up another 4 or 5 games at 2B would be good enough.
The Thugs were about the prepare a thank-you note for Cheeseheads, and officially decline the trade, when another trade offer showed up. Buster Posey, Aroldis Chapman, Daniel Bard, and Joe Nathan for Miggy and Joel Zumaya. Joel Zumaya was completely irrelevant in this trade. He was an injury prone set-up man, who was stuck behind Jose Valverde even when he was healthy. What required a little thought was the inclusion of Bard and Nathan, over Cecil.
Bard was already contributing this year (1.84/0.86 with 51K in 49IP), and pitched at a similar level in 2008. The rampant speculation amongst Red Sox folks (in particular Bill Simmons, which makes it folk wisdom amongst the masses) was that Papelbon was going to be moved at some point, since someone was going to sign him to a 4-year, $56 million sort of deal in free agency, and that Bard was going to take over at some point in 2011 or 2012 at the latest. The story with Joe Nathan was that he had Tommy John surgery back in April, and was out of 2010. His rehab had started, and he was projected to be ready for spring training. His value was in his contract. He was signed through 2011, with a club option for 2012. This meant that the Twins were going to have him as their closer, as long as he was healthy. For small market teams, money matters, and a guy making $11 million was going to get first dibs at a money position. Combined, these two looked to be valuable pieces, particularly in 2011. If either one of them came through, then someone like K-Rod could be shopped for a frontline player.
What tipped the deal was that none of the pieces, save Posey, would really change the championship calculus for the O.N. Thugs in 2010. Chapman's a 2011-12 lottery ticket. Nathan was on the DL all year, and is a 2011 piece. Bard was helping the rate stats, but similar production could be found. Obviously, losing Posey makes C a much more tenuous position for the O.N. Thugs. But the thought is that Miggy's numbers would more than make up for it in 2010. And the biggest factor for the O.N. Thugs' 2010 chances is that neither Kershaw nor Cecil were moved (which has been doubly important with Volquez being smacked around his last 2 starts). So, with that a new (Cabr)Era in O.N. Thugs history has started.
EPILOGUE?
The O.N. Thugs still have some speculative talent, to go with the established talent. Miggy, Wright, Dunn, and Choo appear to be the offensive cornerstones. Jeter and Posada have at least one more year of keepable value, and Andrus is the SS-in-waiting. Markakis is still a bit of a question mark, but will be adequate at the very least. Lincecum, Carpenter, Kershaw, Cecil, and Volquez anchor a strong rotation. Soria, K-Rod, and Bailey form a good bullpen. And the Thugs have two more spots to choose from Hart, Willingham, Fowler, Kendrick, Peavy, Porcello, Morrow, and Venters. This makes for a competitive keeper roster, particularly on the pitching side of things. This was very similar to how the O.N. Thugs entered 2010. With a major difference being the addition of Miguel Cabrera.
The Cheeseheads may still be rebuilding, but at the very least add more depth to their discussion. Posey, Tulo, Crawford, Soto, Soriano, Ike Davis, and Carlos Pena seem to be players that you have to keep. Probably Adam Lind, as well. With regard to pitching, Cain, Rafael Soriano, Axford, Chapman, Bard, and Nathan are guys that will be committed to, and Clayton Richard, Gavin Floyd are likely keepers, as well. After that, you will have two choices between guys like Vernon Wells, Raul Ibanez, Ian Kennedy, David Aardsma, Jason Vargas, Randy Wells, and Ted Lilly. The story of this trade for the Cheeseheads is that they will get to choose from a deeper crop of keepers with much higher ceilings for 2011 and beyond.
As for the future? That's still to be written. If this ends up with another O.N. Thugs Championship, then the trade's a resounding victory. When you're gunning for championships, you take your runs when you can without wrecking your future, your happy. And even if the future for the pieces you move end up being great, so long as your team is still great, you're still happy.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Monday, July 26, 2010
2010 UPL Baseball Mid-Season Report Cards - The Short Bus
To wrap up, let's take a look at the short bus. Note that these places in the standings have adjusted slightly from when I started giving out Mid-Season grades.
Cheeseheads - 10th Place
Strong Moves: Found a lot of offensive help in the draft (Adrian Beltre, Corey Hart, Vernon Wells). Unfortunately, this didn't address the major weaknesses of the team coming in, which was pitching. Got some much needed youth in Ike Davis. Found Kelly Johnson early, who's been very good at 2B. Got younger with Gavin Floyd, who has been good over his last 9 starts (after being dreadful to start the season). Found Clayton Richard and Ian Kennedy early on, both of whom are young and have been solid. Found John Axford, who seems to have a solid hold on the Brewers' closing role.
Boner Moves: Struck out with the arms in his draft. Gave up on Corey Hart way too early. Taking on Ibanez seems to be moving against the strategy of getting younger, as Granderson was younger (but has been on a downward trend the last few years).
Future Outlook: Huge question mark with the Miguel Cabrera trade, which is a classic high-risk, high-reward situation. Posey and Bard immediately step in and become legitimate starters, and both have super high ceilings. If Nathan comes back in 2011 as the closer, then the bullpen is stabilized, and some trade pieces can emerge. Chapman is a huge lottery ticket, that you won't find out about until half-way through 2011, at the earliest. In addition to these 4 players, there are some very solid veteran, keepers to build around longterm (Crawford, Tulo, Soto), as well as in a 2-3 year frame (Soriano, Wells, Pena) on the offensive side. Some decent, young pitching can also be built on (Cain, Richard, Kennedy, Floyd), and there are some closers to round out the roster (Soriano, Axford, Aardsma). Overall quality of the roster needs to continue to improve to move into podium contention.
Mid-term Grade: B. Is currently in the middle of getting younger. Has found some nice, young parts. But the grade probably should be an incomplete - the real result is what happens with Posey, Bard, Chapman, and Nathan.
Westy's Sluggers - 11th Place
Strong Moves: Drafting Bucholz, Loney, and Latos, which gives quality and youth. Picking up Ike Davis, and using him to get Beltre. Keeping Alex Rios from last year, who has been very good this year. Carl Pavano and Brett Myers have been solid veteran contributors. Finding a likely keeper C (Martin) at a low cost (a 3rd 2B in Kendrick).
Boner Moves: Giving up on Latos too early (while hanging on to questionable pieces - who the hell's Scott Baker?). Selling Matt Holliday too cheaply (and has been intent on doing so for a while, it seems). Moving their best pitcher (Lester) for Kinsler, who's redundant at 2B and only so-so at UTIL, without an obvious follow-up plan. Not addressing closer effectively enough in the draft.
Future Outlook: This roster needs an overall quality increase, and needs to get younger. Dotel, Pavano, Abreu, Hunter, Young, and Berkman are all 33+ this year. Lackey, Webb, Beltre, and Utley are 31. Myers is 30. Really, only Loney (26), Bucholz (26), Nunez (27), Martin (27), Kinsler (28), Sizemore (28), Rios (29) look to be keepers under 30, and none are exactly young anymore (and some of serious questions, like Sizemore). This means that some trades need to happen, otherwise, this team will be in purgatory.
Mid-term Grade: C-. The drop-off from 2009 is stark, though many of the players from 2009 had career years. An honest assessment of 2009 success should have prompted more urgency in the trade market, particularly with Abreu, Hunter, and Berkman. Got unlucky with injuries at 2B, so there wasn't a real opportunity to get value for Kendrick. But when C-Lauff starts mocking you and telling you to "Have fun in 19th place," then maybe you need to get things straightened out.
Muddy Mush Heads - 12th Place
Strong Moves: Found Mike Leake, who looks to be a nice, young arm. Rode some success from Carlos Silva, who has since cooled a bit. Has gotten solid pitching efforts from Benoit and Gorzelanny.
Boner Moves: Got off to a horrible start by gambling on Jermaine Dye as a keeper. Gave up on Chris Young way too early. Has dropped Cueto and Tommy Hunter, who have both been solid and are still young. It appears that the Derek Lee trade isn't going to be a winning one, as Jonathan Sanchez has continued his solid play.
Future Outlook: Probably should have rode Cueto and Hunter for longer stretches - those two would look awfully nice with Johan Santana, Phil Hughes, and Mike Leake as your starting rotation in 2011. This is a very old offense, with guys like Carlos and Derek Lee, Ichiro, Furcal, Brian Roberts, and Chone Figgins being relied on heavily. The only legit, young star on offense appears to be Joey Votto. There isn't enough value on Roberts or either Lee to get a worthwhile trade done. However, there may be some willing takers for the speed.
Mid-term Grade: C-. This team needed to have a major overhaul, and get at least a little lucky. Neither has really happened. In fact, the good moves are relatively small in magnitude, in comparison to the Cueto and Hunter drops.
Chicago Zambroneheads - 13th Place
Strong Moves: Acquired Matt Holliday and spare parts for Michael Young and Grady Sizemore, which has worked out very well. Solid production from Tyler Clippard, Mike Pelfrey, Jose Guillen, Alex Gonzalez, and Ty Wigginton, all of whom were found in free agency. Getting some speed from Scott Podsednik in the draft.
Boner Moves: Gave away David Ortiz, right before Papi righted the ship. Wasn't able to find any value for Ibanez. Bad draft restricted the ability to make trades to improve team. Has held on to Billy Wagner (who is retiring after this season) too long - the gameplan should have been to hope for a strong start from Wagner, and then move him out in May/June to get good value. Now, may not be able to get as much for a 2 month rental.
Future Outlook: There are always going to be hiccups with expansion, and this team needed to be perfect to get into the top half this year. The goal is to end up with 18 reasonable keepers, and try to attack in 2011 or 2012. The team started with about 10 or so of these players, and at this point, only have 8 or 9 on the roster, so this has been a bad opening set. Looking at ways to get value should be the key between now and the trade deadline.
Mid-term Grade: C-. Even if the moves had been perfect, there's a chance that this team could have been stuck in the bottom 1/3 of the league. But in reality, a few small wins was overwhelmed by one big mistake (Big Papi).
-Chairman (O.N. Thugs)
Cheeseheads - 10th Place
Strong Moves: Found a lot of offensive help in the draft (Adrian Beltre, Corey Hart, Vernon Wells). Unfortunately, this didn't address the major weaknesses of the team coming in, which was pitching. Got some much needed youth in Ike Davis. Found Kelly Johnson early, who's been very good at 2B. Got younger with Gavin Floyd, who has been good over his last 9 starts (after being dreadful to start the season). Found Clayton Richard and Ian Kennedy early on, both of whom are young and have been solid. Found John Axford, who seems to have a solid hold on the Brewers' closing role.
Boner Moves: Struck out with the arms in his draft. Gave up on Corey Hart way too early. Taking on Ibanez seems to be moving against the strategy of getting younger, as Granderson was younger (but has been on a downward trend the last few years).
Future Outlook: Huge question mark with the Miguel Cabrera trade, which is a classic high-risk, high-reward situation. Posey and Bard immediately step in and become legitimate starters, and both have super high ceilings. If Nathan comes back in 2011 as the closer, then the bullpen is stabilized, and some trade pieces can emerge. Chapman is a huge lottery ticket, that you won't find out about until half-way through 2011, at the earliest. In addition to these 4 players, there are some very solid veteran, keepers to build around longterm (Crawford, Tulo, Soto), as well as in a 2-3 year frame (Soriano, Wells, Pena) on the offensive side. Some decent, young pitching can also be built on (Cain, Richard, Kennedy, Floyd), and there are some closers to round out the roster (Soriano, Axford, Aardsma). Overall quality of the roster needs to continue to improve to move into podium contention.
Mid-term Grade: B. Is currently in the middle of getting younger. Has found some nice, young parts. But the grade probably should be an incomplete - the real result is what happens with Posey, Bard, Chapman, and Nathan.
Westy's Sluggers - 11th Place
Strong Moves: Drafting Bucholz, Loney, and Latos, which gives quality and youth. Picking up Ike Davis, and using him to get Beltre. Keeping Alex Rios from last year, who has been very good this year. Carl Pavano and Brett Myers have been solid veteran contributors. Finding a likely keeper C (Martin) at a low cost (a 3rd 2B in Kendrick).
Boner Moves: Giving up on Latos too early (while hanging on to questionable pieces - who the hell's Scott Baker?). Selling Matt Holliday too cheaply (and has been intent on doing so for a while, it seems). Moving their best pitcher (Lester) for Kinsler, who's redundant at 2B and only so-so at UTIL, without an obvious follow-up plan. Not addressing closer effectively enough in the draft.
Future Outlook: This roster needs an overall quality increase, and needs to get younger. Dotel, Pavano, Abreu, Hunter, Young, and Berkman are all 33+ this year. Lackey, Webb, Beltre, and Utley are 31. Myers is 30. Really, only Loney (26), Bucholz (26), Nunez (27), Martin (27), Kinsler (28), Sizemore (28), Rios (29) look to be keepers under 30, and none are exactly young anymore (and some of serious questions, like Sizemore). This means that some trades need to happen, otherwise, this team will be in purgatory.
Mid-term Grade: C-. The drop-off from 2009 is stark, though many of the players from 2009 had career years. An honest assessment of 2009 success should have prompted more urgency in the trade market, particularly with Abreu, Hunter, and Berkman. Got unlucky with injuries at 2B, so there wasn't a real opportunity to get value for Kendrick. But when C-Lauff starts mocking you and telling you to "Have fun in 19th place," then maybe you need to get things straightened out.
Muddy Mush Heads - 12th Place
Strong Moves: Found Mike Leake, who looks to be a nice, young arm. Rode some success from Carlos Silva, who has since cooled a bit. Has gotten solid pitching efforts from Benoit and Gorzelanny.
Boner Moves: Got off to a horrible start by gambling on Jermaine Dye as a keeper. Gave up on Chris Young way too early. Has dropped Cueto and Tommy Hunter, who have both been solid and are still young. It appears that the Derek Lee trade isn't going to be a winning one, as Jonathan Sanchez has continued his solid play.
Future Outlook: Probably should have rode Cueto and Hunter for longer stretches - those two would look awfully nice with Johan Santana, Phil Hughes, and Mike Leake as your starting rotation in 2011. This is a very old offense, with guys like Carlos and Derek Lee, Ichiro, Furcal, Brian Roberts, and Chone Figgins being relied on heavily. The only legit, young star on offense appears to be Joey Votto. There isn't enough value on Roberts or either Lee to get a worthwhile trade done. However, there may be some willing takers for the speed.
Mid-term Grade: C-. This team needed to have a major overhaul, and get at least a little lucky. Neither has really happened. In fact, the good moves are relatively small in magnitude, in comparison to the Cueto and Hunter drops.
Chicago Zambroneheads - 13th Place
Strong Moves: Acquired Matt Holliday and spare parts for Michael Young and Grady Sizemore, which has worked out very well. Solid production from Tyler Clippard, Mike Pelfrey, Jose Guillen, Alex Gonzalez, and Ty Wigginton, all of whom were found in free agency. Getting some speed from Scott Podsednik in the draft.
Boner Moves: Gave away David Ortiz, right before Papi righted the ship. Wasn't able to find any value for Ibanez. Bad draft restricted the ability to make trades to improve team. Has held on to Billy Wagner (who is retiring after this season) too long - the gameplan should have been to hope for a strong start from Wagner, and then move him out in May/June to get good value. Now, may not be able to get as much for a 2 month rental.
Future Outlook: There are always going to be hiccups with expansion, and this team needed to be perfect to get into the top half this year. The goal is to end up with 18 reasonable keepers, and try to attack in 2011 or 2012. The team started with about 10 or so of these players, and at this point, only have 8 or 9 on the roster, so this has been a bad opening set. Looking at ways to get value should be the key between now and the trade deadline.
Mid-term Grade: C-. Even if the moves had been perfect, there's a chance that this team could have been stuck in the bottom 1/3 of the league. But in reality, a few small wins was overwhelmed by one big mistake (Big Papi).
-Chairman (O.N. Thugs)
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
2010 UPL Basketball Post-Season Awards
Somehow, last year we were remiss by not handing out awards for the '08 UPL Basketball Season. So, in the spirit of giving equal treatment to all UPL sports, I've decided to give unofficial awards for excellence this year. Without further ado, here goes:
All UPL First Team
PG: Deron Williams - O.N. Thugs
SG: Kevin Durant - Love Timberwolves
SF: Lebron James - Wakeup with the King
PF: Dirk Nowitzki - Chowtime
C: David Lee - IamJabrone
All UPL Second Team
PG: Steve Nash - Phatsnapper
SG: Dwayne Wade - IamJabrone
SF: Carmelo Anthony - IamJabrone
PF: Carlos Boozer - O.N. Thugs
C: Chris Bosh - Love Timberwolves
All UPL Third Team
PG: Stephen Curry - Wakeup with the King
SG: Kobe Bryant - O.N. Thugs
SF: Josh Smith - IamJabrone
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire - Phatsnapper
C: Dwight Howard - SuckMyDribblingBalls
All UPL Apology Team (AKA Honorable Mention)
PG: Rajon Rondo - Love Timberwolves
SG: Joe Johnson - IamJabrone
SF: Gerald Wallace - Wakeup with the King
PF: Brook Lopez - O.N. Thugs
C: Zack Randolph - Love Timberwolves
All UPL Injury Team (top players who hurt their teams the most because of injury)
PG: Chris Paul - Sparty Rules
SG: Danny Granger - Chowtime
SF: Brandon Roy - O.N. Thugs
PF: Kevin Garnett - Westy's Balltastics
C: Pau Gasol - Chowtime
UPL Rookie Player of the Year: Stephen Curry (Wakeup with the King)
Honorable Mention: Tyreke Evans (Wakeup with the King)
Best Draft Pick: Stephen Curry in the 12th round (Chowtime, later traded to Wakeup with the King)
UPL Manager of the Year: IamJabrone (especially after being picked to finish middle of the pack by the O.N. Thugs and winning it all anyways)
All UPL First Team
PG: Deron Williams - O.N. Thugs
SG: Kevin Durant - Love Timberwolves
SF: Lebron James - Wakeup with the King
PF: Dirk Nowitzki - Chowtime
C: David Lee - IamJabrone
All UPL Second Team
PG: Steve Nash - Phatsnapper
SG: Dwayne Wade - IamJabrone
SF: Carmelo Anthony - IamJabrone
PF: Carlos Boozer - O.N. Thugs
C: Chris Bosh - Love Timberwolves
All UPL Third Team
PG: Stephen Curry - Wakeup with the King
SG: Kobe Bryant - O.N. Thugs
SF: Josh Smith - IamJabrone
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire - Phatsnapper
C: Dwight Howard - SuckMyDribblingBalls
All UPL Apology Team (AKA Honorable Mention)
PG: Rajon Rondo - Love Timberwolves
SG: Joe Johnson - IamJabrone
SF: Gerald Wallace - Wakeup with the King
PF: Brook Lopez - O.N. Thugs
C: Zack Randolph - Love Timberwolves
All UPL Injury Team (top players who hurt their teams the most because of injury)
PG: Chris Paul - Sparty Rules
SG: Danny Granger - Chowtime
SF: Brandon Roy - O.N. Thugs
PF: Kevin Garnett - Westy's Balltastics
C: Pau Gasol - Chowtime
UPL Rookie Player of the Year: Stephen Curry (Wakeup with the King)
Honorable Mention: Tyreke Evans (Wakeup with the King)
Best Draft Pick: Stephen Curry in the 12th round (Chowtime, later traded to Wakeup with the King)
UPL Manager of the Year: IamJabrone (especially after being picked to finish middle of the pack by the O.N. Thugs and winning it all anyways)
Next year should be a very interesting transition year given the state of some teams and their rosters as they currently stand. There are teams that need to think about getting younger (Westy's Balltastics), teams with solid cores that need to start paying attention (Love Timberwolves), and teams with ridiculous young backcourt talent (Wakeup with the King). And, there are teams that are set-up to contend for the next few years (O.N. Thugs, IamJabrone) and teams that are oh-so-close (chowtime, Sparty Rules, and SuckMyDribblingBalls, Westy's Balltastics). In any case, next year should be interesting.
What do you think? Are these awards well-deserved or did someone get ripped off?
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Endgame Houdini
I'll come out and say it. If C-Lauff pulls out the upset in hoops, I will tip my cap to him. We haven't really gotten into an endgame situation, mainly for selfish reasons. I don't want to tip my hand or give out free advice in a potentially uncertain situation (though I don't know how uncertain it is, really).
As of right now, he's a few points back. It's not so much the current endgame situation that I'm commenting on, but rather the constraints that his roster structure have imposed on him (with average stats over the last month)...
You'll note a couple roster peculiarities. The first is that he's carrying a gunner. And I don't mean a guy that doesn't pass. Well, sort of. I guess that Arenas doesn't really pass. But he's a gunner for so many more reasons. It's tough to hang on to Agent Zero for the season, and still be able to make roster moves. So, basically what the Jabrones are saying is that Arenas is definitely going to kept next year. Similarly, hanging on to Anthony Randolph, despite his injury (and his spotty playing time before that) indicates that he'll be kept, as well. We've expanded rosters in our UPL keeper leagues so that we can accommodate situations like Arenas or Al Jefferson last year for Westy, so that you still have options. However, when you start carrying additional players that aren't playing, then your options tighten up - in a sense, you are handcuffed.
You'll notice that you see some interesting names on the Jabrone roster. The most interesting name is probably Darren Collison. Before Chris Paul returned, Collison was going nuts, going 16 and 9 on a regular basis. And as a result, the Jabrones made a bit of a run on AST and A/TO. However, since CP3's return, Collison has come back down to earth, averaging 11 and 4 in the last week, and has become only a borderline play. So, this means that to keep up the pressure on AST and A/TO, the Jabrones have to look elsewhere. Enter Jrue Holliday, who has been playing well. However in the 3 games that he's played for the Jabrones, plus the 5 (maybe 6) games that he will probably play, he will probably come up 50 to 55 AST short of what Collison was putting up, and likely at a noticeably lower A/TO ratio. But give the Jabrones credit, they're doing what they can to make up the loss. They got some mileage out of Randy Foye right after Agent Zero's incident. And that was going well until the Wiz had their fire sale, and that was when Collison entered the picture. That combination helped the Jabrones crawl back into the AST and A/TO race w/ the Thugs. But the return of CP3 has slowed things down. Theyve tried Toney Douglas, Jarrett Jack, and even Will Bynum. They've even gone after O.N. Thugs castoff Louis Williams (who's been ripped off in Philly this year).
Let's just say that the 2 point swing in AST and the 2 point swing in A/TO would be huge int he standings (that alone would reverse the standings). I don't know if they can pull off the miracle.
Part of it may be the numbers. But the Thugs do have something to say about this situation. The Thugs' AST total has been driven in large part by D-Will and Westbrook, who combine for just under 19 AST/g, which is a huge total, considering an average of 4.3 AST/g, across 820 games, would take that category. Throughout the first half of the season, the Thugs had padded their lead in AST by playing Louis Williams (until he broke his jaw) and Brandon Jennings (who was traded). Since then, they've been somewhat hanging on to the lead in AST, and their hold on 2nd place in A/TO. The Jabrones had been clawing back since then, so the Thugs looked for a little help in a very unlikely place.
Enter Mike Conley. This fella was much maligned by the O.N. Thugs when he was on Westy's roster. Westy's defense was that many advanced stats indicated that Conley was a good player. The O.N. Thugs' retort was to inquire about whether these stats included winning in fantasy. After Westy dropped Conley, he made the comment that advanced stats don't win fantasy. And after Conley was unemployed in the UPL, save for some random stints. Then on March 17, the Thugs swallowed their pride, and picked up Mike Conley, after noticing that he had been playing well in March. In fact, over the last month, Conley has gone 16 and 6, with pretty efficient rate numbers.
So, the question of whether or not the Thugs have quelled this little AST and A/TO rebellion by the Jabrones is still up in the air. But with the return of CP3, it appears that the O.N. Thugs are somewhat safe... and perhaps that the Jabrones won't get to play the role of Houdini.
Next time, I will post about how the O.N. Thugs may have played the role of Houdini this time around, and how the Jabrones may have cost themselves the biggest prize in UPL Basketball.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
| FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | OREB | REB | AST | STL | BLK | A/TO | TOT | |
| O.N. Thugs | 8 | 6.5 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 7.5 | 6 | 10 | 82 |
| IamJabrone | 9 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 79 |
| SuckMyDribblingBalls | 10 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 6.5 | 74.5 |
| Westy's Balltastics | 5.5 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 73.5 |
| Sparty Rules | 2 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 70 |
| Love Timberwolves | 7 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 59 |
| chowtime | 4 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 56 |
| Wakeup with the King | 5.5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 7.5 | 7 | 5 | 55 |
| Floor burns | 3 | 6.5 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6.5 | 46 |
| IamJabberjaw | 1 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33 |
| Phatsnapper | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 32 |
As of right now, he's a few points back. It's not so much the current endgame situation that I'm commenting on, but rather the constraints that his roster structure have imposed on him (with average stats over the last month)...
| FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | OREB | REB | AST | STL | BLK | A/TO | |
| Jrue Holiday | 0.522 | 0.778 | 1.4 | 14.3 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 1.745 |
| Louis Williams | 0.378 | 0.900 | 0.3 | 9.6 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.789 |
| Derrick Rose | 0.474 | 0.783 | 0.7 | 19.1 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 3.737 |
| Carmelo Anthony | 0.459 | 0.844 | 0.5 | 27.5 | 2.9 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.216 |
| Josh Smith | 0.457 | 0.554 | 0.0 | 15.4 | 2.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.718 |
| Joe Johnson | 0.435 | 0.784 | 1.5 | 20.0 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 3.667 |
| David Lee | 0.515 | 0.855 | 0.0 | 20.8 | 3.7 | 13.1 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 2.000 |
| Anthony Tolliver | 0.450 | 0.827 | 1.5 | 13.6 | 2.2 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.667 |
| Al Horford | 0.591 | 0.795 | 0.0 | 15.5 | 3.4 | 10.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.280 |
| Dwyane Wade | 0.510 | 0.779 | 0.8 | 27.5 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.872 |
| Darren Collison | 0.482 | 0.818 | 0.9 | 15.4 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.510 |
| Jermaine O'Neal | 0.537 | 0.796 | 0.0 | 17.2 | 1.2 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.667 |
| Anthony Randolph | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Gilbert Arenas | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
You'll note a couple roster peculiarities. The first is that he's carrying a gunner. And I don't mean a guy that doesn't pass. Well, sort of. I guess that Arenas doesn't really pass. But he's a gunner for so many more reasons. It's tough to hang on to Agent Zero for the season, and still be able to make roster moves. So, basically what the Jabrones are saying is that Arenas is definitely going to kept next year. Similarly, hanging on to Anthony Randolph, despite his injury (and his spotty playing time before that) indicates that he'll be kept, as well. We've expanded rosters in our UPL keeper leagues so that we can accommodate situations like Arenas or Al Jefferson last year for Westy, so that you still have options. However, when you start carrying additional players that aren't playing, then your options tighten up - in a sense, you are handcuffed.
You'll notice that you see some interesting names on the Jabrone roster. The most interesting name is probably Darren Collison. Before Chris Paul returned, Collison was going nuts, going 16 and 9 on a regular basis. And as a result, the Jabrones made a bit of a run on AST and A/TO. However, since CP3's return, Collison has come back down to earth, averaging 11 and 4 in the last week, and has become only a borderline play. So, this means that to keep up the pressure on AST and A/TO, the Jabrones have to look elsewhere. Enter Jrue Holliday, who has been playing well. However in the 3 games that he's played for the Jabrones, plus the 5 (maybe 6) games that he will probably play, he will probably come up 50 to 55 AST short of what Collison was putting up, and likely at a noticeably lower A/TO ratio. But give the Jabrones credit, they're doing what they can to make up the loss. They got some mileage out of Randy Foye right after Agent Zero's incident. And that was going well until the Wiz had their fire sale, and that was when Collison entered the picture. That combination helped the Jabrones crawl back into the AST and A/TO race w/ the Thugs. But the return of CP3 has slowed things down. Theyve tried Toney Douglas, Jarrett Jack, and even Will Bynum. They've even gone after O.N. Thugs castoff Louis Williams (who's been ripped off in Philly this year).
Let's just say that the 2 point swing in AST and the 2 point swing in A/TO would be huge int he standings (that alone would reverse the standings). I don't know if they can pull off the miracle.
Part of it may be the numbers. But the Thugs do have something to say about this situation. The Thugs' AST total has been driven in large part by D-Will and Westbrook, who combine for just under 19 AST/g, which is a huge total, considering an average of 4.3 AST/g, across 820 games, would take that category. Throughout the first half of the season, the Thugs had padded their lead in AST by playing Louis Williams (until he broke his jaw) and Brandon Jennings (who was traded). Since then, they've been somewhat hanging on to the lead in AST, and their hold on 2nd place in A/TO. The Jabrones had been clawing back since then, so the Thugs looked for a little help in a very unlikely place.
Enter Mike Conley. This fella was much maligned by the O.N. Thugs when he was on Westy's roster. Westy's defense was that many advanced stats indicated that Conley was a good player. The O.N. Thugs' retort was to inquire about whether these stats included winning in fantasy. After Westy dropped Conley, he made the comment that advanced stats don't win fantasy. And after Conley was unemployed in the UPL, save for some random stints. Then on March 17, the Thugs swallowed their pride, and picked up Mike Conley, after noticing that he had been playing well in March. In fact, over the last month, Conley has gone 16 and 6, with pretty efficient rate numbers.
So, the question of whether or not the Thugs have quelled this little AST and A/TO rebellion by the Jabrones is still up in the air. But with the return of CP3, it appears that the O.N. Thugs are somewhat safe... and perhaps that the Jabrones won't get to play the role of Houdini.
Next time, I will post about how the O.N. Thugs may have played the role of Houdini this time around, and how the Jabrones may have cost themselves the biggest prize in UPL Basketball.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Sunday, March 28, 2010
UPL Baseball Draft : Ecclesiastes 3:1
It's interesting to see the different strategies that the various teams employed in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft. Obviously, with the start of the UPL keeper era, the draft takes on different meaning. First of all, the first round of the draft is really the 19th round... but that's a little misleading. In theory, the top prospects (like Heyward or Strasburg this year, who are probably gone by the 10th round if we were drafting fresh) who are available make the top of the draft much more valuable. And there are probably a handful of players who weren't top 18 on deeper teams who would have been 15th or 16th rounders. So there's some additional value there. The result is that there is a bit of a break point at the top of the draft, much like in football, where there's a handful of picks at the top who are worth a lot more, and then the next bunch of picks are worth roughly the same. So you get this interesting dynamic where trades matter, and swapping spots in a round could be a major issue.
But the thing that really makes this draft interesting is that different teams have very different goals. The teams at the top of the draft are probably looking to re-load, an probably should have a very forward looking approach. This is evidenced by Pauly's approach to the draft. On the other hand, teams looking to win, such as the '90 Reds, are looking for ways to round out their team. And folks like OD just go with the Best Red Sox Player Available strategy. And Westy posted on Facebook that his top 7 was: 1. Reimold, 2. Beltre, 3. Buchholz, 4. Loney, 5. Escobar, 6. Fowler, 7. Heyward. So this is evidence that some people don't use a strategy, so much as just guess blindly :-)
What makes it interesting is that these teams with very different goals are thrown into the same game, and some of the choices, which may be perfectly rational to one team, may be entirely nuts to another. In that sense, there's a time and a place for any strategy. And so long as you have a broader goal in mind, there's probably not a "wrong" move.
So here's how the O.N. Thugs' draft looked. You'll notice the lack of a 3rd round pick, and that I had lower than expected spots in the 4th and 8th. That was courtesy of my Kerry Wood trade, which we will know the results of in late May or June.
So what was the strategy? Well, the original plan was to go find some power, and to go old school... really old school. Not just in terms of older, players, but also the return to the O.N. Thugs' historical strategy of going with veterans. The idea is this. You build a base that will last for a few years, and then it's winning time. So this year, the plan was to find some undervalued hitters. Travis Hafner, Troy Glaus, Josh Willingham, and Adam LaRoche were high on the list. I also needed to pick up a 2B, but the pickings were slim. Martin Prado, Casey McGehee, Skip Schumaker, and Akinori Iwamora were the four that I was looking at. I didn't really have a preference for any of them, since I don't see Prado as a potential top 13 player (which is the magic number if we have future expansion), and probably not even a top 18. My plan was to just wait it out there. Finally, I had my eye on some of the less-heralded closers or potential closers (Capps, Dotel, Rauch, Perez, Madson, Sherrill, Bard) and a couple starters that I had on my roster at some point last season (Sheets, Latos, Marcum).
Now in terms of execution, drafting in the UPL has become a little less predictable than in the past. First of all, there are fewer auto-drafting teams (save for the O.N. Thugs when we sleep in), and the teams that are auto-drafting have generally pre-ranked players. And the other thing is that our preferences vary greatly from the Yahoo! pre-ranks. Part of it is our league format (6x6, 13 teams, 26-man rosters), and of course that we're a keeper league. So, players that would be "off the radar" in a public league may not be quite as "off the radar" as you may think. So whereas in the past, I'd often let the guy I really wanted slide a round, knowing that he'd still be there when I drafted again, I now tend to just grab the guy that I want now, and let things sort out afterward.
I had assumed that the top of the draft would go Heyward, Strasburg, Chapman, particularly since '90 Reds was, well, a Reds fan. I was ready to just pick Hafner, then get Glaus on the way back, and hope that Willingham would still be there in the 4th. So the draft starts off, and things go off like this:
It starts off as I had figured with Heyward and Strasburg, but then before the draft started '90 Reds was joking (or so we thought) about picking Dotel with the 3rd pick... and I was thinking to myself that I hoped that he wasn't joking... which he wasn't.
Then Benver goes with a relatively safe pick in Correia, who was probably the highest pre-ranked player left at that point.
JimmyDix makes a strange pick with Marlon Byrd, especially given that he hates the Cubs, who's been OK the last few years in a platoon role in TEX (figure that a conservative projection is something like .350/.450, with about 17 HR).
Reimold's getting a lot of hype, but was a 26-year old rookie last year who put up alright numbers (.365/.466 with 15HR in about 400 plate appearances).
Phatsnapper takes Prado, which basically settles the question of me drafting for positional need.
Now Adrian Beltre is an interesting pick, to me. He's 31 this season, had one great season in 2004 (which looks awfully suspicious now), and has a career .325/.453, and probably projects out to 25 HR, 80 R, and 90 RBI over 162 games. You can make a case for his numbers going up with the change in scenery (which I'm not entirely sold on), but I don't know if I'd go down that path. And then Slowey gets picked in the spot in front of me.
Slowey's a 26-year old pitcher, with a career 4.39/1.28 with just under 7 K/9 (though he went 10-3).
Now with all of these players who were picked 3 through 9, I don't see the potential for a top 18 status. And frankly, I didn't see it with the players who I was targeting... so when Chapman falls into my lap at #10, I'm pretty happy. I had to do a double-take to make sure that it was actually the case. But sure enough. He was there. So, it takes the O.N. Thugs roughly 4 minutes to abandon the plan of getting some veteran power, and jumping on Chapman. Now, I certainly don't expect Chapman to be a major contributor for the O.N. Thugs this year (or even in the first part of 2011). But I get to have a free look at him, and will probably keep him on as a keeper, so that I'll really have a 2-year look at him as a potential cog in the machine. The expanded rosters make hanging on to these prospects a real possibility, which was precisely why we expanded to 26-man rosters.
So, my concern turned toward getting some potential power on the roster. The first order of business was to lock up Hafner with the 2nd round. After that, I had a bit of a wait on my hands. I was hoping that I could get either Glaus, Willingham, or LaRoche in the 4th. It turns out that all 3 were still available. I figured that Glaus would be last one picked by someone else, but he was the one that I thought had the biggest upside (career 162-game averages are .360/.500, 35HR, 96R, 101RBI), but was underpriced because of his age and his injury. So Glaus goes my way in the 4th. At that point, I was pretty happy because the odds were that Willingham or LaRoche would still be available when I picked in the 5th. And sure enough, when my turn comes back, both are available, so I go with Willingham, who I like quite a bit, and actually considered keeping in my top 18 (he's basically Brad Hawpe, only he plays in a pitcher's park and not Coors Field).
Now, at this point, I'm pondering my options. The pitchers that I had at the top of my list considered were basically gone. I still didn't have a 2B, and we were down to Schumaker and Iwamura at that point. So, I had to figure out whether I wanted to go after LaRoche and hope that one of my 2B would still be there next time I was picking. Now, I was somewhat lucky because I was going to have 2 picks before C-Lauff would pick again. I had joked about maybe just not playing a 2B, and C-Lauff may have messed with me by picking up extra 2B with his roster space (I did this to him a couple years ago in football, after his QB went down, I picked up the next 2 highest rated free agent QB's just to mess with him). But I also had '90 Reds messing around with his "Frankenstein" strategy for RP and 2B, where he was just drafting random players in the hopes of cutting off body parts and sewing them back together to make a reasonable player. So I was a bit worried that he may have just gone with Schumaker. It turns out that I probably panicked a bit, when I picked Schumaker in the 6th, rather than LaRoche, since Iwamura didn't get drafted at all. Oh well. Relatively small price to pay.
What was interesting was that as I was taking my time on this pick, I noticed that Joe Nathan was available. This was problematic. Jeff had actually wanted Nathan as one of his 2nd wave expansion picks, but I had messed it up. So, I was hoping that Nathan would fall to me, so I could grab him and offer him back to Jeff for the player that I had accidentally placed on his team. I didn't really want Nathan, but figured that it was the right thing to do. We'll see if Jeff wants him or not. Now what's funny is that since then, I've had some inquiries about Nathan. The plan is to just stash him on the DL and see how his rehab looks next spring. But I suppose that a trade wouldn't be a terrible option.
My last pick ended up being George Sherrill. This was a total guess. But, he was on my radar because he played really well for me last year, though his value plummeted after he got traded to LAD to be the set-up man. But, there's always the chance that he could be traded off to MIN or somewhere else where they need a closer.
Now, as you look at my list of picks, I think that it makes sense for my team, which looks to be good with pitching, but needed some bats to put me over the top. I don't have the luxury of waiting for prospects like LaPorta, Gamel, etc. Hafner, Glaus, and Willingham are going to be batting 4 or 5 for their teams. Typical numbers from that spot in the batting order project out to at least 90RBI, and they're are all pretty high OPS guys, so that should bode well, if they get playing time.
Of course, these players, save Chapman, probably don't make a lot of sense for a team that is looking to rebuild, like Hats for Bats, Benver Droncos, JimmyDix, etc. So that adds an interesting wrinkle. You're likely drafting against the teams that have the same goals as you, but even then, the specific needs are probably different enough so that you aren't really competing for the same players. Even with me and '90 Reds needing 2B, our drafts were probably like ships passing in the night, with the possible exception of Casey McGehee, who I had on my radar - even the closers were gone before I would started thinking about them.
So when you take a step back and see these wildly different takes on a draft, you really have to put it back into context and realize that "optimal" choices are based on a lot of assumption. I think that they key assumptions are whether or not your team is in contention or rebuilding, and how many of the keeper slots you have filled up. If you've only got like 12 firm keepers, then you can take more chances on players who may be keeper material. But if your team runs deep, and you're looking to win? Keeper status probably isn't your concern, unless something falls into your lap, like Chapman did in my case. In all honesty, most of the players that Pauly listed on his top 30 weren't even on my radar, simply because I'm needing stats now. For example, had my team been a great hitting, so-so pitching team, a player like Andy Pettite, who Pauly would absolutely never draft (and rightfully so) would absolutely be on my radar, and probably relatively high on my radar.
Now what's really interesting is when you see some teams that you'd figure to be looking to win, instead draft like they're rebuilding. As I look through the drafts, I'm a bit surprised at how much youth Westy and C-Lauff took on. That either means that they really think that their top 18 is golden, or they're looking to rebuild. Either way, I don't think that's an optimal way to go, if they're trying to win now. Obviously, Greg spent a lot of time filling holes, looking to win now. On the other hand, Rupert's draft (which I believe was auto-drafted) tells me that he either is trying to add veterans to win now, or that he just didn't pre-rank players and got stuck w/ the computer's picks. OD appears to be happy to continue his strategy of picking Red Sox players, along with a couple vets along the way.
On the flip side, some teams that were definitely in rebuilding mode, didn't really continue that path in the draft. JimmyDix is a prime example, though his team is quickly moving into contender territory, with his acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez and (soon) BJ Upton. So maybe he's looking to get into the top 4 this year. But the Milwaukee Whiffers' draft didn't really do much to help him rebuild. Nor did the Cheeseheads' draft. But teams like Benver Droncos, Hats for Bats, and the Black Sox seem to have helped along their rebuilding processes in this draft. And in a vacuum, I'd like the Mush Heads' draft, though I'm not sure how good of a draft it was for a rebuilding team.
As for the O.N. Thugs? We're always convinced that we're going to win, even when we're in 10th place at the all-star break :-) But I think that between Hafner, Glaus, and Willingham, I'll get 2 good performances, which will go a long way into putting my offense back in the top half of the league. Though to be honest, much like last season, Wright/Markakis are going to be the major factors. If both are good, then I've got the inside track. If only one is good, then I'll need to get creative. And if neither is good, then it will be really, really hard to get back into the winner's circle.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
But the thing that really makes this draft interesting is that different teams have very different goals. The teams at the top of the draft are probably looking to re-load, an probably should have a very forward looking approach. This is evidenced by Pauly's approach to the draft. On the other hand, teams looking to win, such as the '90 Reds, are looking for ways to round out their team. And folks like OD just go with the Best Red Sox Player Available strategy. And Westy posted on Facebook that his top 7 was: 1. Reimold, 2. Beltre, 3. Buchholz, 4. Loney, 5. Escobar, 6. Fowler, 7. Heyward. So this is evidence that some people don't use a strategy, so much as just guess blindly :-)
What makes it interesting is that these teams with very different goals are thrown into the same game, and some of the choices, which may be perfectly rational to one team, may be entirely nuts to another. In that sense, there's a time and a place for any strategy. And so long as you have a broader goal in mind, there's probably not a "wrong" move.
So here's how the O.N. Thugs' draft looked. You'll notice the lack of a 3rd round pick, and that I had lower than expected spots in the 4th and 8th. That was courtesy of my Kerry Wood trade, which we will know the results of in late May or June.
| Round | Pick (overall) | Player |
| 1 | 10 | Aroldis Chapman |
| 2 | 17 | Travis Hafner |
| 4 | 49 | Troy Glaus |
| 5 | 62 | Josh Willingham |
| 6 | 69 | Skip Schumaker |
| 7 | 88 | Joe Nathan |
| 8 | 101 | George Sherrill |
So what was the strategy? Well, the original plan was to go find some power, and to go old school... really old school. Not just in terms of older, players, but also the return to the O.N. Thugs' historical strategy of going with veterans. The idea is this. You build a base that will last for a few years, and then it's winning time. So this year, the plan was to find some undervalued hitters. Travis Hafner, Troy Glaus, Josh Willingham, and Adam LaRoche were high on the list. I also needed to pick up a 2B, but the pickings were slim. Martin Prado, Casey McGehee, Skip Schumaker, and Akinori Iwamora were the four that I was looking at. I didn't really have a preference for any of them, since I don't see Prado as a potential top 13 player (which is the magic number if we have future expansion), and probably not even a top 18. My plan was to just wait it out there. Finally, I had my eye on some of the less-heralded closers or potential closers (Capps, Dotel, Rauch, Perez, Madson, Sherrill, Bard) and a couple starters that I had on my roster at some point last season (Sheets, Latos, Marcum).
Now in terms of execution, drafting in the UPL has become a little less predictable than in the past. First of all, there are fewer auto-drafting teams (save for the O.N. Thugs when we sleep in), and the teams that are auto-drafting have generally pre-ranked players. And the other thing is that our preferences vary greatly from the Yahoo! pre-ranks. Part of it is our league format (6x6, 13 teams, 26-man rosters), and of course that we're a keeper league. So, players that would be "off the radar" in a public league may not be quite as "off the radar" as you may think. So whereas in the past, I'd often let the guy I really wanted slide a round, knowing that he'd still be there when I drafted again, I now tend to just grab the guy that I want now, and let things sort out afterward.
I had assumed that the top of the draft would go Heyward, Strasburg, Chapman, particularly since '90 Reds was, well, a Reds fan. I was ready to just pick Hafner, then get Glaus on the way back, and hope that Willingham would still be there in the 4th. So the draft starts off, and things go off like this:
| Pick | Player | Team |
| 1 | Jason Heyward | Hats for Bats |
| 2 | Stephen Strasburg | Black Sox |
| 3 | Octavio Dotel | '90 Reds |
| 4 | Kevin Correia | Benver Droncos |
| 5 | Marlon Byrd | TheJimmyDixLongballs |
| 6 | Nolan Reimold | Muddy Mush Heads |
| 7 | Martín Prado | Phatsnapper |
| 8 | Adrián Béltre | Cheeseheads |
| 9 | Kevin Slowey | SuckMyknucklballs |
| 10 | Aroldis Chapman | O.N. Thugs |
| 11 | Clay Buchholz | Westy's Sluggers |
| 12 | Alcides Escobar | IamJabrone |
| 13 | Alberto Callaspo | Milwaukee Whiffers |
It starts off as I had figured with Heyward and Strasburg, but then before the draft started '90 Reds was joking (or so we thought) about picking Dotel with the 3rd pick... and I was thinking to myself that I hoped that he wasn't joking... which he wasn't.
Then Benver goes with a relatively safe pick in Correia, who was probably the highest pre-ranked player left at that point.
JimmyDix makes a strange pick with Marlon Byrd, especially given that he hates the Cubs, who's been OK the last few years in a platoon role in TEX (figure that a conservative projection is something like .350/.450, with about 17 HR).
Reimold's getting a lot of hype, but was a 26-year old rookie last year who put up alright numbers (.365/.466 with 15HR in about 400 plate appearances).
Phatsnapper takes Prado, which basically settles the question of me drafting for positional need.
Now Adrian Beltre is an interesting pick, to me. He's 31 this season, had one great season in 2004 (which looks awfully suspicious now), and has a career .325/.453, and probably projects out to 25 HR, 80 R, and 90 RBI over 162 games. You can make a case for his numbers going up with the change in scenery (which I'm not entirely sold on), but I don't know if I'd go down that path. And then Slowey gets picked in the spot in front of me.
Slowey's a 26-year old pitcher, with a career 4.39/1.28 with just under 7 K/9 (though he went 10-3).
Now with all of these players who were picked 3 through 9, I don't see the potential for a top 18 status. And frankly, I didn't see it with the players who I was targeting... so when Chapman falls into my lap at #10, I'm pretty happy. I had to do a double-take to make sure that it was actually the case. But sure enough. He was there. So, it takes the O.N. Thugs roughly 4 minutes to abandon the plan of getting some veteran power, and jumping on Chapman. Now, I certainly don't expect Chapman to be a major contributor for the O.N. Thugs this year (or even in the first part of 2011). But I get to have a free look at him, and will probably keep him on as a keeper, so that I'll really have a 2-year look at him as a potential cog in the machine. The expanded rosters make hanging on to these prospects a real possibility, which was precisely why we expanded to 26-man rosters.
So, my concern turned toward getting some potential power on the roster. The first order of business was to lock up Hafner with the 2nd round. After that, I had a bit of a wait on my hands. I was hoping that I could get either Glaus, Willingham, or LaRoche in the 4th. It turns out that all 3 were still available. I figured that Glaus would be last one picked by someone else, but he was the one that I thought had the biggest upside (career 162-game averages are .360/.500, 35HR, 96R, 101RBI), but was underpriced because of his age and his injury. So Glaus goes my way in the 4th. At that point, I was pretty happy because the odds were that Willingham or LaRoche would still be available when I picked in the 5th. And sure enough, when my turn comes back, both are available, so I go with Willingham, who I like quite a bit, and actually considered keeping in my top 18 (he's basically Brad Hawpe, only he plays in a pitcher's park and not Coors Field).
Now, at this point, I'm pondering my options. The pitchers that I had at the top of my list considered were basically gone. I still didn't have a 2B, and we were down to Schumaker and Iwamura at that point. So, I had to figure out whether I wanted to go after LaRoche and hope that one of my 2B would still be there next time I was picking. Now, I was somewhat lucky because I was going to have 2 picks before C-Lauff would pick again. I had joked about maybe just not playing a 2B, and C-Lauff may have messed with me by picking up extra 2B with his roster space (I did this to him a couple years ago in football, after his QB went down, I picked up the next 2 highest rated free agent QB's just to mess with him). But I also had '90 Reds messing around with his "Frankenstein" strategy for RP and 2B, where he was just drafting random players in the hopes of cutting off body parts and sewing them back together to make a reasonable player. So I was a bit worried that he may have just gone with Schumaker. It turns out that I probably panicked a bit, when I picked Schumaker in the 6th, rather than LaRoche, since Iwamura didn't get drafted at all. Oh well. Relatively small price to pay.
What was interesting was that as I was taking my time on this pick, I noticed that Joe Nathan was available. This was problematic. Jeff had actually wanted Nathan as one of his 2nd wave expansion picks, but I had messed it up. So, I was hoping that Nathan would fall to me, so I could grab him and offer him back to Jeff for the player that I had accidentally placed on his team. I didn't really want Nathan, but figured that it was the right thing to do. We'll see if Jeff wants him or not. Now what's funny is that since then, I've had some inquiries about Nathan. The plan is to just stash him on the DL and see how his rehab looks next spring. But I suppose that a trade wouldn't be a terrible option.
My last pick ended up being George Sherrill. This was a total guess. But, he was on my radar because he played really well for me last year, though his value plummeted after he got traded to LAD to be the set-up man. But, there's always the chance that he could be traded off to MIN or somewhere else where they need a closer.
Now, as you look at my list of picks, I think that it makes sense for my team, which looks to be good with pitching, but needed some bats to put me over the top. I don't have the luxury of waiting for prospects like LaPorta, Gamel, etc. Hafner, Glaus, and Willingham are going to be batting 4 or 5 for their teams. Typical numbers from that spot in the batting order project out to at least 90RBI, and they're are all pretty high OPS guys, so that should bode well, if they get playing time.
Of course, these players, save Chapman, probably don't make a lot of sense for a team that is looking to rebuild, like Hats for Bats, Benver Droncos, JimmyDix, etc. So that adds an interesting wrinkle. You're likely drafting against the teams that have the same goals as you, but even then, the specific needs are probably different enough so that you aren't really competing for the same players. Even with me and '90 Reds needing 2B, our drafts were probably like ships passing in the night, with the possible exception of Casey McGehee, who I had on my radar - even the closers were gone before I would started thinking about them.
So when you take a step back and see these wildly different takes on a draft, you really have to put it back into context and realize that "optimal" choices are based on a lot of assumption. I think that they key assumptions are whether or not your team is in contention or rebuilding, and how many of the keeper slots you have filled up. If you've only got like 12 firm keepers, then you can take more chances on players who may be keeper material. But if your team runs deep, and you're looking to win? Keeper status probably isn't your concern, unless something falls into your lap, like Chapman did in my case. In all honesty, most of the players that Pauly listed on his top 30 weren't even on my radar, simply because I'm needing stats now. For example, had my team been a great hitting, so-so pitching team, a player like Andy Pettite, who Pauly would absolutely never draft (and rightfully so) would absolutely be on my radar, and probably relatively high on my radar.
Now what's really interesting is when you see some teams that you'd figure to be looking to win, instead draft like they're rebuilding. As I look through the drafts, I'm a bit surprised at how much youth Westy and C-Lauff took on. That either means that they really think that their top 18 is golden, or they're looking to rebuild. Either way, I don't think that's an optimal way to go, if they're trying to win now. Obviously, Greg spent a lot of time filling holes, looking to win now. On the other hand, Rupert's draft (which I believe was auto-drafted) tells me that he either is trying to add veterans to win now, or that he just didn't pre-rank players and got stuck w/ the computer's picks. OD appears to be happy to continue his strategy of picking Red Sox players, along with a couple vets along the way.
On the flip side, some teams that were definitely in rebuilding mode, didn't really continue that path in the draft. JimmyDix is a prime example, though his team is quickly moving into contender territory, with his acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez and (soon) BJ Upton. So maybe he's looking to get into the top 4 this year. But the Milwaukee Whiffers' draft didn't really do much to help him rebuild. Nor did the Cheeseheads' draft. But teams like Benver Droncos, Hats for Bats, and the Black Sox seem to have helped along their rebuilding processes in this draft. And in a vacuum, I'd like the Mush Heads' draft, though I'm not sure how good of a draft it was for a rebuilding team.
As for the O.N. Thugs? We're always convinced that we're going to win, even when we're in 10th place at the all-star break :-) But I think that between Hafner, Glaus, and Willingham, I'll get 2 good performances, which will go a long way into putting my offense back in the top half of the league. Though to be honest, much like last season, Wright/Markakis are going to be the major factors. If both are good, then I've got the inside track. If only one is good, then I'll need to get creative. And if neither is good, then it will be really, really hard to get back into the winner's circle.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
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