Draft Day Dilemmas

The UPL Baseball Draft has come and gone again. This season I found myself falling into some traps that I thought wouldn't plague me again. For instance, I once again focused on need over talent. I also didn't prepare a deep enough list of players to draft, and thus found my game plan collapsing by the later rounds. This was compounded by the fact that my Internet kept going out every 3 to 4 minutes.

Heading into the draft my team desperately needed 2B, SS, and RP. (With Brian Wilson on the DL, I only had one closer, Drew Storen, and his spring was very concerning.) Last year I focused on closers early in the keeper draft, and while my bullpen did well last year, I never managed to get a quality SS on my team. And with McGehee losing 2B eligibility, I found myself in a similar position as last season in terms of needs. But unlike last year, I was determined to address both SS and 2B before RP.

When I saw that Rafael Furcal was available, I did lots of research on him and decided his upside was worth the injury risk. I was picking 8th, and Furcal was the #2 rated hitter available (after Martin Prado), so  my chances of getting him were slim. But I held out some hope. And when the Cheeseheads were picking 7th with Furcal still on the board, I actually thought I was going to land him because the Cheeseheads already had Troy Tulowitzki. But no, the Cheeseheads went with the proven talent and took Furcal.

When researching 2B/SS before the draft, one name that caught my eye was Ryan Raburn of the Tigers. He had barely played enough at 2B last season to qualify at that position, but he was really an outfielder with some power. Grey at Razzball was high on him (in the good sense), and lots of people seemed to think that Raburn could have a breakout season. Yes, he was nearing 30 years old, but he had already shown decent MLB production over the past 2 seasons. He had played in 113 games in each of the last 2 years -- and if he could get into more like 140, he was somebody who could give you 20+ homers at 2B. That would be nice.

Ideally, I would have loved to have taken Furcal at #8 in the 1st round and then Raburn at #19 in the 2nd round. With Furcal off the board, I felt compelled to take Raburn while I could. My thought was that he has a chance at going .360/.490 with 24 homers at 2B eligibility, and that would be really nice. Yeah, he probably would have dropped to the 2nd round, but I didn't want to take that chance. Maybe if I had known at the time that my guy Mat Latos would be heading to the DL, I would have taken a starter like Ricky Nolasco. But other than that, I'm not sure that I would have been too high on the guys who went right after Raburn. It's not that they're bad, it's just that these are all guess at this point anyway. Mike Trout has more trade value right now than Raburn, but I don't like the idea of having a guy in the minors sitting on my bench, especially when he's still so young (19) and unproven.

When my 2nd pick came around, I looked at the available SS's and didn't like what I saw, so I bailed out with safe pick--Chris Sale as an elite middle reliever with potential to hawk a few saves (and potentially more if Thornton doesn't get the job done). I also had Luke Gregerson qued up here in case Sale went off the board; this info is significant because my Internet connection later went out and I auto-drafted Gregerson with my 3rd pick. That might turn out OK, but I would have preferred to go after someone else in that spot since I already had Sale--for instance, Chipper Jones could have been on my radar.

In the 4th round, I was a little surprised to see Mike Minor still on the board. Yes, I knew that he had unexpectedly lost out on the 5th starter spot for Atlanta, but at the same time he's still an elite prospect who performed well at the major league level toward the end of last season. Just because a prospect gets sent down to Triple-A at the end of spring training doesn't necessarily mean anything is wrong. Based on my research, Minor had pitched well, but so had Brandon Beachy. The Braves decided to go with Beachy for now. Okay. In the short term, Minor's stock takes a hit. It also means he's available in a garbage round. Since I wanted to get at least one elite prospect in this draft, I went with Minor.

In the 5th round, I had to take a SS. My team had zero SS's on the roster, and while part of me thought my chances were better with no SS compared to who was available, ultimately my brain told me my odds were slightly better by taking the best SS available. (I use the word "best' here loosely.) I went with a young guy with some speed who'd would be hitting toward the top of an anemic lineup. His name is Alcides Escobar, or something like that. Unfortunately, I was basically in exactly the same position as last year when late in the draft I took some young guy with speed who would be hitting toward the top of an anemic lineup (Padres). Although, I can't remember that shortstop's name. Seriously, I can't. He's just some guy who underperformed last season and made me want to forget all about him. I hope this Escobar guy can do better, but I'm not holding my breath...

By the 6th round my player list had collapsed and I was basically flying blind. With a spotty Internet connection, I couldn't cruise the web looking for last-minute research. So I went with who I thought was the best proven hitter still available: Marlon Byrd. I know, that was a terrible pick. But at that point I was just trying to minimize damage.

In the 7th round my Internet attacked again and I was left with the autodraft: David Murphy. Let's pretend I didn't write that last sentence.

In the 8th (and last) round, I was thinking about steals. Bourn was one of my keepers, but I wouldn't consider him a reliable player (and most speedy guys aren't very reliable due to a slightly higher risk for injuries that prevent them from getting as many steals). I had remembered from some of my reading a few days before the draft that Eric Young was battling for a platoon spot with the Rockies, but that he still might be a good late-round pick in case he was able to put things together. My thought here was that maybe Young would get off to a good start and get more playing time than expected--which might lead to season where he bats .275 (maybe a .320 OBP?) with 35+ steals. Yeah, I know, that was an extremely optimistic outlook, but it's the thought I had in my mind. Of course, I soon as I picked him, Pauly noted that Young had already been sent down to the minors. Whoops.

So how did I do? Well, as usual, during the draft I feel like I'm doing poorly compared to the group, but after a few days I settle down and feel better. Realistically, if Raburn can be a top 5 2B, my draft right away starts looking better. If Sale and Gregerson both put up elite pitching stats and mix in some saves, then that's nice, too. If Mike Minor eventually blossoms into a top 20 starter pitching for a good team (Braves) in a pitcher-friendly park (Atlanta), then that's pretty good, too. Those results would move my team forward a step, and really, that's all you can hope to do in this type of draft.

But will it happen? Nobody can predict the future, and each pick is always a risk. If Raburn is a bust, if either Sale or Gregerson implode, and if Minor lives up to his name and spends most of his time down on the farm, then yeah, my draft will look stupid. 

Each year people comment about how the UPL's competitiveness is increasing, and this year seems to be no different. When I finally realized yesterday that Storen didn't get Washington's save, I tried to pick up Sean Burnett but Rupert had beat me to him by about an hour. These types of things are happening more and more often, and when I look back at our draft, I do see some savvy picks were made that I wouldn't have known about until I read about some of these guys after the draft. I've also missed out on some starting pitchers on the waiver wire recently because I didn't want to risk a waiver priority but others did (Wade Davis and J.A. Happ come to mind). In the UPL, it feels like you have to go after almost any small advantage possible. To make an analogy, it's like playing against a great-shooting basketball team and if you don't get all the way out to defend the three, they'll make you pay. Early on I've had some slips, and I can already see some of those threes swishing in.

Another thought on my mind is that last year I was not aggressive enough with trades. I probably should get busy on that front soon...