An O.N.Thug's Perspective: Episode III - Eating Popcorn, While the Cheese (Sandwich) Stands Alone, Part I

This is the first of a 3-part review of the 2011 UPL Baseball season, and given the exciting finish, I'll start at the end.  In a nutshell, this is UPL Keeper Era: 3 seasons, 3 champions, 6 teams on the podium, with only 3 teams repeating podium performances.  Things have not settled like you may have figured a keeper league would.  And a lot of it was on display last night, when for the 2nd season in a row, game 162 in real-life baseball changed the fortunes of UPL Baseball.  And this is what this post is about.  But first some context.

About 6 or 7 weeks ago, Westy made a trade with Pauly, sending Craig Kimbrel to Hats for Bats, in exchange for Michael Pineda.  Most of the audience thought that it was a reasonable trade, moving a closer to get a live, young SP who had been pretty good through his first 4 or 5 months.  Rupert begged to differ, posting one of his classic messages about how he had been offering much better deals, and bemoaning the fact that Westy had settled on trading Kimbrel for a "cheese sandwich."  More on cheese sandwiches later.

The other prominent feature of the final weeks of 2011 UPL Baseball was popcorn.  Back in late June, Greg, in another of his subtle-so-as-to-not-be-subtle jabs, was commenting on how the O.N. Thugs were being uncooperative in his efforts in acquiring Clayton Kershaw, and how that it was clear that the Thugs were pushing for a Hats for Bats championship.  And before I had the chance to respond, the conversation was continued by Westy and C-Lauff, and Greg threw in this gem:

Passive-aggressive.  It's what's for dinner.  That and popcorn.

In any case, at this point, Hats for Bats were dominating the league, flying over the 140 mark.  And the O.N. Thugs were about 3 weeks into their annual comeback efforts, having moved from about 80 points up to about 95 points.  And mind you, the Thugs were in 5th of 6th place at the time (though it was better than the 7th or 8th place they were in at the start of June).  Naturally, the Thugs found reason for confidence.  And of course, there had to be a reply. 

 The latest in UPL icons: Greg enjoying popcorn, while I remind people to never get in a land war with China.

As an aside, I've been proud of how little explicit vulgarity I've been using in my trash talk. 

For the first couple months, the Thugs were publicly quiet about their 2011 team, but privately, they liked the squad.  After all, the disastrous May/June that led to the mediocre results had to be the worst-case scenario (Dunn being awful, Jeter looking old, Carpenter getting smacked around, Volquez getting demoted, Kershaw not hitting his stride, yet).  In conversations with OD and CJ, the Thugs would explain how things were trending upward, how they still had the best pitching staff in the UPL, and how Pauly was going to come back to earth, as Bautista and Weaver came back to earth.  The thought was that there was too much variance in Pauly's pitching for this to keep up.  And in these conversations, OD and CJ would just say "uh-huh" while rolling their eyes.  To paraphrase OD, "Uh, yeah.  I was pretty sure that you were talking out of your ass."

By any fair assessment, back in June, an O.N. Thugs victory would have been uber-Sisyphean.

Of course, this is how an O.N. Thug (or any other delusional person) sees the world.

But at the end of June, the Thugs went public by co-opting O.N. Thugs icon, Terrell Owens, and telling everyone who wasn't going to be involved (like Greg and Westy) to just sit back and enjoy the show (despite the fact that the Thugs well back in the standings).  But by the time September rolled around, the O.N. Thugs had moved all the way up to about 110 points, pretty much passing Greg up in the standings, to be in 3rd place.  And at the same time, C-Lauff had made a run, and was emerging as a winner in the duel w/ Pauly for first, with both teams running around 125-130 points.  So the O.N. Thugs had the task of making up 15-20 fantasy points, and jumping 2 teams.  Clearly, the O.N. Thugs had the title in the bag :-)

And amazingly enough, the picture of the UPL was sort of like this, through Game 161, out of 162, as the O.N. Thugs were in 1st place on the penultimate standings, with 123.5 points, with Pauly and C-Lauff just behind.

 Generally, in situations like this, you bet on Rock.  Paper and Scissor are generally afterthoughts.

But like Dr. Jones, the Jabrones make an epic escape, aided by two cheese sandwiches.

If you've ever played in a poorly designed head-to-head league, one of the features is the churning of pitchers.  Basically, you pick up and drop pitchers so you can use them for a given start.  Generally, a keeper league will dissuade you from doing that too much.  However, the last few days of the season end up being like those head-to-head leagues - you figure out who your keepers are, and anyone who you know won't be kept may get dropped so that you can pick up an SP to get an extra start or two in the hopes of chasing an extra W or getting a miracle bump in ERA or WHIP.  Similarly, you may start to try to find a random HR or SB with an offensive player that would hurt your OBP or SLG in the long run, but may be a quick miracle cure.  From an aesthetic standpoint, it's sort of an ugly way to win - much like hitting your opponent with a steel chair while your manager distracts the ref.  From a practical standpoint, you have to do it, because it maximizes your chances, and if you do it right, can steal you a point or two at the end of the season. 

In anticipation of the churning, the Thugs evoked some of Rupert's imagery:

Channel your inner Homer... mmm... cheese sandwiches...

Now, I have to admit that when I posted this, I knew that I had an advantage.  First of all, I was up by one W on both Pauly and C-Lauff.  And more importantly, I wouldn't get hurt by an L, as I was 3 L's behind Pauly.  So I had some room to work with.  And in fact, I sort of wanted Pauly and C-Lauff to stretch.  My logic was that the Fantasy Gods would punish anyone who was going to start a cheese sandwich, if not with an L, but at least with a bad ERA/WHIP.  And Pauly and I were dueling over both ERA and WHIP, and C-Lauff was at risk in WHIP (with, ironically, Cheeseheads).  My thought was that the churn could easily take a turn for the worst, and hang them with 1 or 2 L's (which would be worth 0.5 to 1 points), and that they could backfire in ERA and WHIP.  And the second thought that I had was that I had a guy who wasn't a cheese sandwich (Carpenter) who had a pedigree, who was on a roll in September, and who was playing in a must-win game.  I liked my chances w/out churning an starter, especially when I looked down the list.

Wade LeBlanc didn't look bad starting in SD, but the Cubs felt like the sort of team that may go off and hand a dozen runs on a team when the game is meaningless.

Ted Lilly looked reasonable, but I had bet against the D-Backs twice with Tim Lincecum, and gotten bit both times.  Basically, I didn't feel like messing with the D-Backs with the season on the line.

Christ Volstad against WAS wouldn't be terrible, but he was going up against Stephen Strasburg, who was looking solid.

And really, that was about it for me.

When I saw that Pauly got Miguel Batista, my first thought was that "Pauly's an idiot.  Miguel Batista died years ago."  But I looked closer, and it turns out that Batista was, in fact, alive, and starting for the Mets against my Reds.  My Reds who finished 2nd in the league in runs scored.  So my thought changed to, "Pauly's crazy - he's about to give me that point in WHIP, too."  It was at that point that I decided that I was going to start Volquez, as well (I did check to see if OD, who I was tied with in W, had starters going, and saw that he had 2).  I figured that I needed to give myself a chance to stay ahead of OD, in case he got a W.  That and it would be fitting for me to let Volquez atone for his fantasy baseball sins.  So I had one cheese sandwich going, and it was one that had a high ceiling.  So I felt that I was in a stronger position than either C-Lauff of Pauly with my pitching.

So the morning comes, and I roll out of bed.  I see that Volquez was pitching well, but the Reds were down 1-0.  Eh.  Whatever.  Then I notice that Volquez gave up a 2-run HR.  Uggh.  Oh well.  At least the Reds will get to Batista and punish him eventually, right?

So I get showered, and roll out to lunch.  And I see this show up on my Blackberry.:

 Sometimes there's no justice :-)  Also, Pauly had that icon before Sheen had his #DuhWinning meltdown.

Really?  And sure enough, Volquez gets stuck w/ the L, though his line of 7 IP, 3ER, 6H, 1BB, and 5K is actually pretty decent.  But at this point, my grip on ERA had slipped, so that I was percentage points behind.

And a little while after, I see this on my Facebook feed, from Tom, White Sox fan, one of Mikey's old roommates, and former UPL Football dim-wit turned finalist (Tom was the guy who didn't look at the rules and drafted Pittsburgh DEF early in the first round, presumably because "defense wins championships," and was labeled as Tweedledum [or Tweedledummer, I don't really remember] by myself).

Tweedledum (or dummer) as the bearer of bad news.

Of course, I thought to myself, "Sucks to be Greg (who owned Sergio Santos).  Sale just tossed 1 2/3 last night to get the SV.  He's young, and they're going to build up his arm strength to be a starter next season.  There's no way they're going to jeopardize that."  And then I realized that this was the White Sox we were talking about.  The same White Sox that seem to botch player development and had everything go wrong this season.  So I just had to check.  And sure enough, somehow it was Chris Sale on the mound.  At least he didn't blow out his arm (I don't think).  But the damage was done.  1/3 IP, 2ER, 2H, 3BB.  I don' t know exactly how close it would have been. But I lost a point in ERA to Pauly after the Volquez and Sale debacle, and it didn't look like I could get it back (I was then at 3.20, while Pauly was down to 3.17).  Happily, the 2 L's didn't factor into it.  And in all honesty, I probably would not have been gutsy enough to start Volquez had L's mattered.

At that point, Pauly was in first, I was behind, and C-Lauff had lost ground. I still had hope because I had other avenues to victory (namely by scoring some runs on offense, swiping a few bases, or racking up some OBP).  And there was plenty of play left, as Pauly still had one more cheese sandwich, and C-Lauff had 2 cheese sandwiches to eat.

Which set the stage for the exciting finish to the season, where the UPL championship wasn't won until the last pitch was thrown.

More on that in Episode III, part II.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Feeling Drafty

Since our newest contributor of the UPL Blog has posted his take on the 2011 UPL Baseball Draft, I feel compelled to do the same. Although, I have to be honest, my levels of preparation for these things are really dropping.

Basically, I like my team going into the draft. I've got 8 slots to fill up. I go in there with the goal of finding a couple young guys to hang on to. I'm willing to have 1 (maybe 2) roster spots devoted to guys with late 2011 (or even 2012) ETA's. But I'm of the belief that you should use the guys on your roster to win now, if your team's got a shot.

Obviously, the pitching is a strong part of my team. I pulled off a useful trade before the draft, to get Cliff Lee. In addition to Lee, my rotation is Lincecum, Kershaw, Carpenter, Volquez, and Peavy. My RP are Soria, K-Rod, and Bailey. Assuming that I get about 200 IP out of those 3, I've got about 1250 IP to use up with my SP. I know that Peavy is hurt, but there's a reasonable chance that some of the guys go more than 200 IP. So, really, SP isn't a priority. I know that Bailey is on the DL to start the season, so I need to get some cheap SV, so I think about a couple possible RP to pick up. But it's nothing too pressing. I figure that worst case, I can trade for a RP at some point. But getting 2 cheap RP in the draft is what I'm thinking.

On the hitting side, there are a few holes. Obviously, 2B, since I don't actually have a 2B on the roster. And I'm giving up games at C, with only Posada on the roster. So at some point I'll need to get a 2B and a C. And last year, there were problems with power, so figuring out how to get some more power in there was important, as well. So, I can go with some potential power.

As far as who I'm thinking about, there were a number of possibilities.

For getting offensive production, there were a number guys who were dropped that had pedigrees: Rafael Furcal, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Carlos Beltran, Chipper Jones, Alfonso Soriano, Hideki Matsui, Jason Kubel, James Loney. And some hyped prospects that had lost luster: Alex Gordon, Dexter Fowler, Travis Snider, Adam Jones. The younger guys were all reasonable choices. Of the veterans, I was most interested in the guys that had been injury risks, since there was better chance that the decline was injury-based, and not from loss of skill. And the younger guys were all intriguing, but seemed to carry more risk than I wanted. Furcal and Thome were two familiar faces to the O.N. Thugs. Beltran and Chipper were two players that I though were interesting, as well.

At 2B, things are always tight. Prado would have been the best choice, but he's probably not getting to me at the 11th pick. Juan Uribe had a productive season last year, but he has such a low OBP, that he's a little scary to me. And Chone Figgins has put up decent rate stats in the past, though not last year, and would be good for about 45 SB. Neil Walker put up a .810 OPS last year, and would have been intriguing, as well. Ryan Rayburn qualified at 2B, and had produced, though wasn't a full-time player. And I actually had Omar Infante last year at some point. And the Japanese dude Nishioka was going off in drafts, as well, and was going to be the starting 2B in MIN. I figure that I'd have time to get one of those guys in the first few rounds. And if not, there would be someone I could get in free agency, after I put some guys on the DL. Good ol' Freddy Sanchez, Orlando Hudson, or Skip Shumaker. But I wanted to get someone in the draft, since I did need to fill that spot in the roster.

At C, there was actually more playable depth. Two familiar faces were Russell Martin and Ryan Doumit, two former O.N. Thugs. Arencibia got some hype last year. Ruiz, Hernandez, and a few other names could have been passable, as well. But this was a lesser concern. I figured that I had at least 110 games from Posada (maybe even more now that he was DH'ing). This could wait until free agency, if it needed to.

As far as RP goes, there weren't many true closers there, save for Brandon Lyon, who's a little problematic to own because he's not good. Brandon League and Matt Capps were probably going to get a couple saves early on, as Aardsma and Nathan got into the swing of things, and could have been a temporary option. Either Contreras or Madson was going to get a few saves in PHI, and one of the Blue Jay pitchers had to get saves, I figured. And after that, you had some set-up guys, ranging from younger guys like like Sale, Meek, and Walden to older guys like Farnsworth, Motte, and Uehara. None of these options looked particularly sexy to me.

With the prospects, I figured that Bryce Harper and Mike Trout (the consensus #1 and #1a top prospects this year) would be gone by the time I was drafting in the 1st round. A number of the top prospects were already on rosters (Hellickson, for example). There were a number of names that were certain to be picked at some point in the draft: Domonic Brown, Mike Minor, Brandon Belt, Desmond Jennings, Dustin Ackley, Kyle Drabek, Mike Moustakas, Julio Teheran, Jhoulys Chacin, Jose Tabata, Michael Pineda, Freddie Freeman, and Jesus Montero. My goal was to get to two of these guys, ideally one of whom was going to be a 2011 contributor.

So the draft starts up.

And Bryce Harper goes #1. No surprise. Jeff had actually e-mailed me about my thoughts, and I told him that I'd be very surprised if Harper or Trout would get to him in the 2nd round, since I'd be 99% to draft them at #11 and 100% to draft either at #16 overall. Then Prado goes off at #2. Again, sure. Zambrano goes off at #3. I almost kept him, before I pulled off the Cliff Lee trade (and thought about keeping him as a 7th SP). Then Neil Walker goes at #4. So my options at 2B look worse at this point. Probably waiting another round or two before I go down that road. Then Brandon Lyon goes at #5, and I laugh a little, because I figure that he'll go over like Dotel did for Greg last year.

Initially, I was figuring out if I liked Beltran at the #10 slot, and was talking myself into it. But after Lyon goes off, I start wondering if Trout may fall to me, like Aroldis Chapman did last year. I figured that there was no way, since CJ was picking at #10, and had indicated that he'd go young this draft, and that he'd lock down either Trout or Harper if they fell to him at #11. But I wondered.

Adam Jones and Rafael Furcal go off at #6 and #7. Again no surprise. Then Ryan Rayburn goes off to Greg at #8. That was a bit of a surprise, since he's got other needs. And C-Lauff's picking at #9. I start heckling him with Ricky Nolasco, since he was his guy last year. And CJ chimes in on the chat, saying for me to shut up. At that point, I remember that CJ was also targeting SP, and was interested in Edwin Jackson. And evidently Ricky Nolasco, as well. All of a sudden, I wonder if Mike Trout was going to be an option for me.

C-Lauff goes with Figgins at #9. CJ quickly grabs Nolasco at #10, and I fall into Mike Trout. Happy outcome for me. Particularly since Rup and Pauly lay off Beltran, and he's there for me to grab at #16 overall. As the draft continues, it comes to me in the 3rd (37 overall), and I realize that it's either draft Infante now (or maybe wait until my 4th round pick - #42 overall), or wait until FA to get a 2B. Decide that I shouldn't risk having Rup or Pauly randomly grab Infante (though it was a small chance), and just pick now, figuring that Chipper (who I was debating) would be there in the 4th. It worked out OK, and I ended up with Infante as my 2B (eh, needed a starter), and got Chipper as my 2nd offensive lottery ticket. So, I'm pretty happy. I get my prospect, get 2 offensive lottery tickets, and get a 2B with my picks.

Here, the RP situation looks to be tightening up, to the point of looking ugly. So I'm thinking about just ignoring it, and taking more offensive lottery tickets and prospects. And I set my sights on Domonic Brown, Jesus Montero, and Mike Moustakas. Brown and Moustakas go off in the 5th round. But meanwhile, I had sort of gotten bored of the draft. I'm off on Facebook or Twitter or something, and checked back in to see that Hisanori Takahashi had been selected, so I made some joke about the tsunami of Japanese players being selected, and then I went back to goofing around on the internet. I had Montero set up in my queue, and figured that I had time to figure out who I was going to take in the 6th.

But sure enough Montero gets picked up by CJ at the pick right before mine. Only I don't notice this. So I end up with like 20 seconds left on the clock, and I'm looking around for who to select. I do a quick check of the Blue Jays team, looking to see their RP situation, and have Arencibia catch my eye. So, I decide that if I couldn't get Montero, I'd still go with a prospect C. And as I'm about to click "draft," my time runs out, and I get an auto-pick.

Koji Uehara. Japanese guy. Part of the tsunami of Japanese players :-) Whoops. So there was extra irony in that pick. Later CJ commented that he thought that pick was deliberate after I made the tsunami joke. My first thought is, "Who the hell's Koji Uehara?" The screen told me that he was a RP with BAL, and my next thought was, "Dammit. I have an Orioles RP, this can't be good." But I looked at his stats from last year, and saw that Kevin Gregg was their closer, and I figured that there was a reasonable chance that he turns into gold this year. So I was less annoyed.

So, I queue up Arencibia for my pick in the 6th. As I'm figuring out who Koji Uehara was, the draft continues. And again, my guy gets picked right before I'm going to draft him, as Pauly gets him in the 6th. And again, I don't notice until there's like 45 seconds left on my clock. At this point, I'm horribly bored, and knew that it was too early to get after prospects who probably weren't going to be drafted. Since I had looked at the Blue Jays team information, I just stick with one of the RP on that staff. Figured that there was some karma at work somewhere, and I go with Octavio Dotel, particularly after I had made fun of Greg last year. So I pick him up.

And at this point, I'm just guessing, as most of the prospects that I had on my radar had been picked up. In retrospect, I didn't realize that Brandon Belt was still available, and had I noted that, I wouldn't have gone Dotel. But since I didn't catch that Belt was available, and since I had just read about the Blue Jays, I pick up Kyle Drabek in the 7th. Then Belt goes to Pauly right afterward, and I'm instantly annoyed at myself for how badly I had botched the last 3 rounds because I got bored. I do manage to get things under control, and was happy to get my guy Russell Martin as my last pick, hoping that the change of scenery to NY would do him well.

As I look back, things have worked out OK so far with the late picks. Dotel's been hurt, which I knew. Uehara has tossed well, Martin has hit a HR and has a SB in his new role as the starting C in NY, and Drabek had a stud outing in his first start. As for the early picks, Trout's in the minors, Beltran and Infante have had slow starts, but Chipper looks to be back to his old self. As I look back, I'm pretty happy with the draft because I filled the slots I needed, and got a couple good prospects and lottery tickets. Obviously, I've gotten a little lucky with the results of my Uehara and Drabek picks. On the other hand, I'm back to the drawing board at 2B, as Infante has been bad so far. I've picked up Jose Lopez, who doesn't qualify for 2B for a few more games, but that's not exactly the next coming of Joe Morgan.

In any case, the season is off and running. We'll see how everything plays out.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Draft Day Dilemmas

The UPL Baseball Draft has come and gone again. This season I found myself falling into some traps that I thought wouldn't plague me again. For instance, I once again focused on need over talent. I also didn't prepare a deep enough list of players to draft, and thus found my game plan collapsing by the later rounds. This was compounded by the fact that my Internet kept going out every 3 to 4 minutes.

Heading into the draft my team desperately needed 2B, SS, and RP. (With Brian Wilson on the DL, I only had one closer, Drew Storen, and his spring was very concerning.) Last year I focused on closers early in the keeper draft, and while my bullpen did well last year, I never managed to get a quality SS on my team. And with McGehee losing 2B eligibility, I found myself in a similar position as last season in terms of needs. But unlike last year, I was determined to address both SS and 2B before RP.

When I saw that Rafael Furcal was available, I did lots of research on him and decided his upside was worth the injury risk. I was picking 8th, and Furcal was the #2 rated hitter available (after Martin Prado), so  my chances of getting him were slim. But I held out some hope. And when the Cheeseheads were picking 7th with Furcal still on the board, I actually thought I was going to land him because the Cheeseheads already had Troy Tulowitzki. But no, the Cheeseheads went with the proven talent and took Furcal.

When researching 2B/SS before the draft, one name that caught my eye was Ryan Raburn of the Tigers. He had barely played enough at 2B last season to qualify at that position, but he was really an outfielder with some power. Grey at Razzball was high on him (in the good sense), and lots of people seemed to think that Raburn could have a breakout season. Yes, he was nearing 30 years old, but he had already shown decent MLB production over the past 2 seasons. He had played in 113 games in each of the last 2 years -- and if he could get into more like 140, he was somebody who could give you 20+ homers at 2B. That would be nice.

Ideally, I would have loved to have taken Furcal at #8 in the 1st round and then Raburn at #19 in the 2nd round. With Furcal off the board, I felt compelled to take Raburn while I could. My thought was that he has a chance at going .360/.490 with 24 homers at 2B eligibility, and that would be really nice. Yeah, he probably would have dropped to the 2nd round, but I didn't want to take that chance. Maybe if I had known at the time that my guy Mat Latos would be heading to the DL, I would have taken a starter like Ricky Nolasco. But other than that, I'm not sure that I would have been too high on the guys who went right after Raburn. It's not that they're bad, it's just that these are all guess at this point anyway. Mike Trout has more trade value right now than Raburn, but I don't like the idea of having a guy in the minors sitting on my bench, especially when he's still so young (19) and unproven.

When my 2nd pick came around, I looked at the available SS's and didn't like what I saw, so I bailed out with safe pick--Chris Sale as an elite middle reliever with potential to hawk a few saves (and potentially more if Thornton doesn't get the job done). I also had Luke Gregerson qued up here in case Sale went off the board; this info is significant because my Internet connection later went out and I auto-drafted Gregerson with my 3rd pick. That might turn out OK, but I would have preferred to go after someone else in that spot since I already had Sale--for instance, Chipper Jones could have been on my radar.

In the 4th round, I was a little surprised to see Mike Minor still on the board. Yes, I knew that he had unexpectedly lost out on the 5th starter spot for Atlanta, but at the same time he's still an elite prospect who performed well at the major league level toward the end of last season. Just because a prospect gets sent down to Triple-A at the end of spring training doesn't necessarily mean anything is wrong. Based on my research, Minor had pitched well, but so had Brandon Beachy. The Braves decided to go with Beachy for now. Okay. In the short term, Minor's stock takes a hit. It also means he's available in a garbage round. Since I wanted to get at least one elite prospect in this draft, I went with Minor.

In the 5th round, I had to take a SS. My team had zero SS's on the roster, and while part of me thought my chances were better with no SS compared to who was available, ultimately my brain told me my odds were slightly better by taking the best SS available. (I use the word "best' here loosely.) I went with a young guy with some speed who'd would be hitting toward the top of an anemic lineup. His name is Alcides Escobar, or something like that. Unfortunately, I was basically in exactly the same position as last year when late in the draft I took some young guy with speed who would be hitting toward the top of an anemic lineup (Padres). Although, I can't remember that shortstop's name. Seriously, I can't. He's just some guy who underperformed last season and made me want to forget all about him. I hope this Escobar guy can do better, but I'm not holding my breath...

By the 6th round my player list had collapsed and I was basically flying blind. With a spotty Internet connection, I couldn't cruise the web looking for last-minute research. So I went with who I thought was the best proven hitter still available: Marlon Byrd. I know, that was a terrible pick. But at that point I was just trying to minimize damage.

In the 7th round my Internet attacked again and I was left with the autodraft: David Murphy. Let's pretend I didn't write that last sentence.

In the 8th (and last) round, I was thinking about steals. Bourn was one of my keepers, but I wouldn't consider him a reliable player (and most speedy guys aren't very reliable due to a slightly higher risk for injuries that prevent them from getting as many steals). I had remembered from some of my reading a few days before the draft that Eric Young was battling for a platoon spot with the Rockies, but that he still might be a good late-round pick in case he was able to put things together. My thought here was that maybe Young would get off to a good start and get more playing time than expected--which might lead to season where he bats .275 (maybe a .320 OBP?) with 35+ steals. Yeah, I know, that was an extremely optimistic outlook, but it's the thought I had in my mind. Of course, I soon as I picked him, Pauly noted that Young had already been sent down to the minors. Whoops.

So how did I do? Well, as usual, during the draft I feel like I'm doing poorly compared to the group, but after a few days I settle down and feel better. Realistically, if Raburn can be a top 5 2B, my draft right away starts looking better. If Sale and Gregerson both put up elite pitching stats and mix in some saves, then that's nice, too. If Mike Minor eventually blossoms into a top 20 starter pitching for a good team (Braves) in a pitcher-friendly park (Atlanta), then that's pretty good, too. Those results would move my team forward a step, and really, that's all you can hope to do in this type of draft.

But will it happen? Nobody can predict the future, and each pick is always a risk. If Raburn is a bust, if either Sale or Gregerson implode, and if Minor lives up to his name and spends most of his time down on the farm, then yeah, my draft will look stupid. 

Each year people comment about how the UPL's competitiveness is increasing, and this year seems to be no different. When I finally realized yesterday that Storen didn't get Washington's save, I tried to pick up Sean Burnett but Rupert had beat me to him by about an hour. These types of things are happening more and more often, and when I look back at our draft, I do see some savvy picks were made that I wouldn't have known about until I read about some of these guys after the draft. I've also missed out on some starting pitchers on the waiver wire recently because I didn't want to risk a waiver priority but others did (Wade Davis and J.A. Happ come to mind). In the UPL, it feels like you have to go after almost any small advantage possible. To make an analogy, it's like playing against a great-shooting basketball team and if you don't get all the way out to defend the three, they'll make you pay. Early on I've had some slips, and I can already see some of those threes swishing in.

Another thought on my mind is that last year I was not aggressive enough with trades. I probably should get busy on that front soon...

UPL Baseball Keepers: Forget Everything You Knew (Or Not)

2010 UPL Baseball taught us something. Everything that you thought you knew may have been wrong. Sure, last year, my predictions had the O.N. Thugs and Phatsnapper being good. The Phatsnapper call was only a minor reach (7th place in 2009, but suffered from lack of managerial interest). But where in the world did Hats for Bats and JimmyDix come from? They were tied for 10th in 2009, and were projected to be 7th or 8th place teams in 2010. And what happened to the '90 Reds, IamJabrone, and Westy's Sluggers (the podium from 2009)? They finished 6th, 5th, and 9th, respectively.

It turns out that in the new UPL, there's a lot of variance in the 2nd year of a keeper league. And if I had to guess, we'll see some more movement across the next couple seasons, before things settle a little bit. But what we're finding is that even in a keeper league with deep keeper rosters, things can be shaken up a lot.

Part of it was the influx of impact rookies and 2nd year players, which seemed to play a much larger role than in previous years. And it just so happened that the 3 teams that made big leaps upward were all a big part of the youth movement. And it seems that sticking with a team full of middling veterans is instantaneous death. So questions that emerge are 1) at what stage do you play the prospect game, and 2) how do you play the prospect game.

The first stage is where conventional wisdom may need to be reconsidered. The standard thought process is that if you're playing to win a championship, you want a solid veteran keeper base, and then you draft to round out your stats. Given that the average performance is going to be high, the goal is to minimize variance in your keeper performance. This is the O.N. Thugs' continual modus operandi. And this was probably the basic strategy we saw from a number of teams in 2010.

However, if there are game changing prospects, the level of fantasy impact can be remarkably high. For example, look at a stat category like HR. In the UPL, the number of HR a team will hit ranges from about 150 to about 250. This is across 1620 games played (10 starters). Now, compare this to basketball, where the category with the lowest rate is either 3PM or STL, which range from like 400 to 800 or so, across 820 games played. Relatively speaking, this means that there's roughly about 6 times more variance in HR (and even more so in SB and much more so in W, L, and SV). The conventional wisdom used to be that stats even out over 162 games. But the amount of variance in some stat categories can change the landscape. So the "certainty" that veteran-oriented teams bank on can be turned upside-down with one player. For example, last year Jose Bautista shows up on the scene and swings HR by about 40 or so (and RBI, R, and SLG to a lesser degree), and from out of nowhere, swings about 10 fantasy points for Hats for Bats, the eventual runner up, and changes how the teams at the top competed, tactically. Now Bautista wasn't a "prospect" at 30 years old, but the impact of those players that come from "nowhere" can't be overstated. When I say "nowhere" what I mean is without major league performance pedigree. And the major source of these players is the minors, i.e., prospects.

I think that the story is that more teams should be looking at "rebuilding" with prospects (or other players coming out of nowhere). But when does a team look to minimize variance, and when does a team look to roll the dice? Oddly enough, my take on this used to be that if you look at your team, and you see that your average expected performance would be a top-half team, then you'd try to minimize variance, and then try to make the moves in free agency that rounds out the team. Now, I'm not sure that top-half is good enough. I'd almost say that if you're going to try to minimize variance, you should have the look of a top-3 team. If your keeper base doesn't have a clear look of a podium team, then you're in "rebuilding" mode. But rebuilding doesn't mean that you're necessarily punting on the season, as the amount of variance involved in a number of categories (HR, SB, W, L, SV) can really swing a season. And the impact of draft picks, which was originally assumed to be marginal, is actually big. In some sense, the first round of the draft is the 19th round. But it's only the 19th round, if you take an established veteran. It also gives you the chance to get a 14th round caliber veteran off of a good team (which has some value), but it also gives you the chance for a future top-4 round caliber player, as well. So I think that more teams should be playing the prospect game to a greater extent.

With regard to how to play the prospect game, a big part of it seems to be via the trade. Going full on with prospects, and figuring out how to move them, seems to be one play here. This lets you improve your keeper base when you get a little lucky with some prospects. And gives you a better shot of getting really lucky and finding a franchise cornerstone with the next Pujols (who was an "out of nowhere" guy as a 21-year old back in 2001). And this makes sense for the teams that are in the lower tier of the league. In some sense, this is what Phatsnapper did in the initial UPL Baseball keeper draft, going young over and over.

But even playing from the top of the league in a more traditional sense, the prospect game matters. But it's less of a massive movement to youth, but more of a selective game. Trying to get younger, even by a couple years is an important aspect of this game, but so is picking up some very young players, and letting them become trade chips or potential back-end keepers. Even the O.N. Thugs, who have traditionally been associated with veteran players, have been active in building youth into the roster in a systematic way.

In doing this, of course, drafting matters. But so does moving players with trades. But that does lead to some uncertainty. The trading of prospects seems to be something that the league hasn't quite settled on, as evidenced by the Wieters for Cano trade that didn't draw any comments and the Smoak/Scutaro for Weaver/Stanton trade that was vetoed (and subsequently led to a revamping of the league's protest rules).* But the teams that did well last year all were involved in prospect-oriented trades, as buyers or sellers. The upshot is that standing pat, and trying to do thing completely internally probably isn't as likely to work as it has in the past. And gone are the days where completely veteran teams steamroll the rest of the league. Of course, all this could change if there are two or three seasons that are full of rookie duds...

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

*Sort of an aside: One common theme of the UPL, which has been railed against by some owners, was the prevention of rip-off trades via veto. The intent was to keep some balance in the league, and to maintain an atmosphere of fair play across the board. The major protest against this came from folks like Phatsnapper, who maintained that part of the fun of fantasy was ripping off other owners in trades. In my mind, this created a more conservative, but consistent playing field. The commish watched over the field, and the field watched over the commish (with protests able to overturn any of the commish's trades). The major concern with the new protest system (requiring more protests than approvals, with a minimum of 4 protests needed to overturn) is that this no longer becomes a level playing field.

From a selfish perspective, this becomes messy for the O.N. Thugs, as it seems that this system will drive up the cost of trades for the O.N. Thugs more than other teams. This was evidenced by the Cabrera for Chapman/Nathan/Bard/Posey trade. In short, it took 4 likely keepers to get the Miggy trade done, and it was still officially protested by at least one owner and concerns voiced by others. On the other hand, there were no voices at all for the Smoak/Weaver trade, largely because of the teams involved (who were perceived as bottom-tier teams). It will be short jump to seeing how this setup could handcuff trades involving teams that are successful. Given the poor ability of evaluating teams (and the amount of variance that we saw last year), it's a bit of a concern on my end. We'll see if this ends up being a symmetrical landscape, or if this will lead to some permanent biases. But this ends up being a potential game changer for bottom-tier teams, as the trade waters are loaded for them, and playing the prospect game (where valuations can swing wildly) can be good.

2011 UPL Baseball Draft Lottery

In case you have forgotten, the results from 2010 UPL Baseball:



So, using the same formula (order of finish, divided total number of points assigned) the corresponding odds were given for the 2011 UPL Draft Lottery:

Team	Rank	Odds
Milwaukee Whiffers	13	14.2857%
Mushheads	12	13.1868%
Benver Droncos	11	12.0879%
SuckMyCurveballs	10	10.9890%
Westy's Sluggers	9	9.8901%
BlackSox	8	8.7912%
Cheeseheads	7	7.6923%
'90 Reds	6	6.5934%
IamJabrone	5	5.4945%
JimmyDix	4	4.3956%
O.N. Thugs	3	3.2967%
Hats for Bats	2	2.1978%
Phatsnapper	1	1.0989%
TOTAL	91	100%

And with some help from CJ, Westy, C-Lauff, and Greg (who generated random numbers for this process), the results are in:

CJ	Westy	C-Lauff	Greg	Winner	Winning Team
1	3	1	6	1316	Milwaukee Whiffers
0	2	3	8	238	BlackSox
2	5	3	6	2536	SuckMyCurveballs

So the draft order has been set:

1. Milwaukee Whiffers
2. BlackSox
3. SuckMyCurveballs
4. Muddy Mush Heads
5. Benver Droncos
6. Westy's Sluggers
7. Cheeseheads
8. '90 Reds
9. IamJabrone
10. JimmyDix Longballs
11. O.N. Thugs
12. Hats for Bats
13. Phatsnapper

This is starting to feel familiar, but without further ado...

Jeff, you are on the clock.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

2010 UPL Baseball Wrap-up and Post-Season Awards

Once again, props to the UPL owners who were playing the season out until the last day, when we had a bit of an upset when Phatsnapper took over first place from Hats for Bats, and became the latest UPL multi-title owner. Phatsnapper took a somewhat risky route to the title, deciding to sacrifice multiple categories (SB and SV), and hoped that no one was going to put together an elite season. In the past, I've briefly written about the numbers behind punting on a categories. Part of the thought process is that you only can surrender so many points, and expect to win. In the past, we generally have teams win with somewhere between 114 and 116 points (in 11 or 12 team leagues). If you bump that up to a 13 team league, and assume that teams in contention would probably get most of those extra points, then you'd probably expect 125 to 127 as the magic number you'd need to get to.

Bearing in mind that in a 13 team league, we're looking at 156 possible points, that means that surrendering 30 points is the most you'd want to do. When you punt on a category, you're automatically surrendering 12 points. To give up on SV and SB means that you're surrendering 24 points. This means that across the remaining 10 categories, you need to average a little better than 12 out of 13 points. This means that you'd have to finish 2nd or better across the board, which is awfully tough to do. And even then, you may run into a buzzsaw of a team. If you run into one of the top UPL teams from years past, surrendering a category, much less multiple categories, probably dooms you.

Generally speaking, when you run a strategy where you're surrendering 1 category, it's risky. You have to trust that you're going to come awfully close to maxing out everything else. But, if you execute, you can still pretty much control your destiny. Surrendering 2 categories is a bad strategy, unless you know some other things, namely, whether anyone else is going to also punt on those categories. If you don't know these things, then even if run perfect, there's a chance that you can still get beat. Now, if you know that other teams are going to give up on SB and SV, then this becomes a little more viable, since you can reasonably expect to make some tactical adjustments for a few points.

That said, the execution still matters or the strategy matters. But I'd argue that your optimal strategic move is to assume perfect execution, so that you're not relying the breaks falling your way. If you look at how the breaks went, some specific things went right that you can isolate. Hats for Bats lost out on his skirmish in SLG, a potential 2.5 point swing, and basically played his OBP competition at par (could have gotten another 1.5 points, but could have lost 2 points), when his offense let him down in the last 2 weeks of the season. Similarly, the O.N. Thugs had unexpectedly disastrous stretches from Tim Lincecum (0-5, 8.00/1.80 in August)and Chris Carpenter (2-5, 4.50/1.30 from 8/26 until end of season) that swung the W/L numbers by anywhere from 5 to 7 points. If the breaks had fallen the way of Hats for Bats or the O.N. Thugs, then this could have been a very different result.

But, one thing that the Phatsnapper strategy does is make your execution much easier. From a theoretical sense, you're removing some moving parts from the equation. This lets you devote more of your roster to fewer categories. If you look at the "upward/downward mobility" in the categories, you can see that Phatsnapper was pretty much locked in to his points, save for a few minor skirmishes here and there. On the other hand, the teams that were chasing Phatsnapper were all involved in heavy competition for points, with a lot of possible variance across multiple categories.

That said, I think that's a relatively less interesting discussion than the more pertinent discussion about the UPL trade waters, which I will comment on in a future post. As for the rest of this post? It's time to give out some hardware:

All-UPL First Team:

C: Joe Mauer, Phatsnapper
1B: Albert Pujols, IAmJabrone
2B: Robinson Cano, Phatsnapper
3B: Jose Bautista, Hats for Bats
SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Cheeseheads
OF: Carlos Gonzalez, '90 Reds
OF: Carl Crawford, Cheeseheads
OF: Josh Hamilton, Phatsnapper
UTIL: Joey Votto, Muddy Mush Heads
UTIL: Paul Konerko, SuckMyKnuckleballs
SP: Roy Halladay, Hats for Bats
SP: Adam Wainwright, Phatsnapper
SP: Ubaldo Jimenez, Benver Droncos
SP: David Price, Phatsnapper
SP: Jon Lester, JimmyDixLongballs
RP: Brian Wilson, '90 Reds
RP: Heath Bell, Hats for Bats
RP: Joakim Soria, O.N. Thugs

All-UPL Second Team

C: Victor Martinez, '90 Reds
1B: Miguel Cabrera, O.N. Thugs
2B: Dan Uggla, IAmJabrone
3B: tie, David Wright, O.N. Thugs and Adrian Beltre, Westy's Sluggers
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Black Sox
OF: Ryan Braun, SuckMyKnuckleballs
OF: Matt Holliday, Milwaukee Whiffers
OF: Adam Dunn, O.N. Thugs
UTIL: Jayson Werth, Black Sox
UTIL: Adrian Gonzalez, JimmyDixLongballs
SP: Felix Hernandez, Phatsnapper
SP: Roy Oswalt, Milwaukee Whiffers
SP: C.C. Sabathia, IamJabrone
SP: Josh Johnson, Black Sox
SP: Justin Verlander, Black Sox
RP: Mariano Rivera, SuckMyKnuckleballs
RP: Rafael Soriano, Cheeseheads
RP: Billy Wagner, Milwaukee Whiffers

All-UPL Team Killers

C: Matt Wieters, Benver Droncos
1B: Justin Morneau, Benver Droncos
2B: Chase Utley, Westy's Sluggers
3B: Mark Reynolds, IamJabrone
SS: Jimmy Rollins, Benver Droncos
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury, IamJabrone
OF: Justin Upton, '90 Reds
OF: Jason Bay, SuckMyKunckleballs
UTIL:Matt Kemp, Phatsnapper
UTIL: Dustin Pedroia, SuckMyKunckleballs
SP: Zack Greinke, Phatsnapper
SP: Josh Beckett, SuckMyKunckleballs
SP: Javy Vazquez, free agent (kept by '90 Reds)
SP: Wandy Rodriguez, '90 Reds
SP: Scott Baker, free agent (kept by Westy's Sluggers)
RP: Bobby Jenks, JimmyDixLongballs
RP: Johanthan Broxton, IAmJabrone
RP: Chad Qualls, free agent (kept by '90 Reds)

Team of the Year: Phatsnapper
Manager of the year: Pauly (honorable mention, Rup and CJ)
UPL MVP - Josh Hamilton, Phatsnapper
UPL Cy Young - Roy Halladay, Hats for Bats
UPL Fireman Award - Brian Wilson, '90 Reds
UPL Rookie Pitcher - Neftali Feliz, Phatsnapper
UPL Rookie Hitter - Buster Posey, Cheeseheads
UPL Out of Nowhere Pitcher - Mat Latos, '90 Reds
UPL Out of Nowhere Hitter - Jose Bautista, Hats for Bats

The Anatomy of a Blockbuster: A New (Cabr)Era

ACT I - SOME HISTORY

Trades involving truly big names are hard to come by in the UPL, where teams have historically preferred the status quo. The O.N. Thugs are generally not a huge player on the trade market, preferring to tinker in free agency. They made a big trade when they were sure they had a loaded offense early on, and traded for Pedro Martinez back in 2003, sending over Manny and another hitter (Robbie Alomar, maybe?) to OD. Even after the trade, the O.N. Thugs featured probably the best offense in the history of UPL baseball, winning 64 out of 66 possible points on offense (11 team league). They team featured Bonds, Pujols, and Delgado, and also had Reggie Sanders, Jose Guillen, and Preston Wilson hit over 30 HR (Wilson had 141 RBI that year). Add in speed from Carl Crawford, Scott Podsednik, Rafael Furcal, and a speculative pickup of Mark Teixeira, and you had a ridiculous offense. This team ended up hitting .391/.527 (the team put up a .918 OPS - yikes!), with 1031 R, 294 HR, 980 RBI, and 125 SB.

Over the last few years, the O.N. Thugs have not quite been able to replicate this offense (not even the 2004 O.N. Thugs, probably the best team in UPL Baseball history, though they were built on pitching first). It got to the point in 2009, where a failure on offense (ironically, led by Carlos Delgado's injuries - well, maybe not so ironic given his age) led to the lowest finish ever by the O.N. Thugs, 4th place. So something had to give. The O.N. Thugs had been fairly disciplined in their approach to the keeper era, working to acquire young, high ceiling talent, which is in stark contrast to the O.N. Thugs' traditional road to victory, which employed established veterans. They had also managed to hang on to their waiver priority, and managed to luck into Buster Posey, when he was dropped by IamJabrone, right at the start of his hot streak.

The Cheeseheads were a team that had been stuck in the middle of the pack throughout it's UPL history, and the keeper era was no exception. This team featured some very high-end talent, in the form of Miguel Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Carl Crawford. They also had some potentially solid parts in Geovany Soto and Adam Lind. And they had some veterans who were going to be kept for a few more years Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Pena, and Vernon Wells. Unfortunately, the pitching looked suspect - Matt Cain was the best of the bunch, and only Rafael Soriano was actually performing well at closer (though John Axford had established himself as the closer in MIL). Gavin Floyd, Clayton Richard, Ted Lilly, Ian Kennedy, Randy Wells, Anibal Sanchez, and Jason Vargas didn't strike you as the sort of guys that you wanted to build a franchise around - they were nice pieces to take a chance on, and hope for the best.

ACT II - REBUILDING

The O.N. Thugs were chatting with JimmyDix, about potential trade ideas, when JimmyDix noted that Cheeseheads were looking to rebuild. Immediately, the thought of Miggy being available in the UPL caught the imaginations of both the O.N. Thugs and JimmyDix. The O.N. Thugs had inquired about Carlos Pena earlier in the season, but talks never moved past an initial, random offer. But now, with rebuilding officially on the way, some thoughts started swirling. The major goal was to be able to make a move for a top tier player (either Miggy or Tulo), without sacrificing the ability to win in 2010. Unfortunately, right before the trade talks started up, Jake Peavy had sustained a season-ending injury, which left the O.N. Thugs with only Lincecum, Carpenter, Kershaw, and Cecil as starters, Vincente Padilla recently picked up, and with Volquez about the come off the DL. So, starting pitching really couldn't be moved.

At this point, Corey Hart was at the tail end of his HR binge, so the Thugs were looking to sell high. And the Thugs also had a fairly long list of keepable talent of varying quality and age that could have been moved (Russell Martin, Elvis Andrus, Dexter Fowler, Shin-Soo Choo, Daniel Bard, Aroldis Chapman, Joe Nathan) without really hurting the 2010 team's chances (Choo was on the DL at that point). Some initial offers involving Corey Hart as a major component failed (despite the Cheeseheads presumed affinity for all things Milwaukee). And a counter-offer was made on July 17. Miguel Cabrera for Buster Posey and Clayton Kershaw.

At this point, the basic price was set. Two high end, young players. And the O.N. Thugs were pretty sure that a deal could get done, so confident that they had sent out a message to JimmyDix on the night of July 17 indicating a likely press conference within the next 48 hours. But the problem of the O.N. Thugs' lack of SP still remained.

ACT III - LOOKING FOR PLAN B

Posey was gaining national recognition, and was putting up .410/.570 sort of production, which is ridiculous at C. But he was somewhat superfluous at C, with Jorge Posada still producing well. Of course the raw production of Cabrera made that sort of move palatable. So that part of the equation was OK. But Clayton Kershaw was a different story. His 2010 stats were awfuly good: 10-5, 2.96/1.22 with 138K in 130.2IP. But the key stat was "22." As in his age in 2010. But the dearth of SP for the Thugs made the other part of the equation too expensive. The Thugs decided that this couldn't happen, unless some SP could be acquired, or a different piece was involved.

At this point, Volquez had made his first start, and looked spectacular. So moving a starting pitcher became a possibility, but the Thugs front office remained firm on Kershaw, particularly if Posey was going to be involved. So there was some work to be done.

So, Brett Cecil was the piece that the Thugs tried to market. Cecil, for whatever reason, hadn't caught the imagination of a lot of fantasy folks, who prefer Ricky Romero as the sexy prospect in TOR. But Cecil was 1 year younger, was 8-5 in over 100IP in 2010, and had a very respectable 3.89/1.16 with 6.3 K/9. He also had a strikeout pedigree from the minors (228K in 228.1 IP) similar to Jon Lester's (446K in 483.2 IP).

So a counter-offer was made on July 18. Buster Posey, Brett Cecil, and Aroldis Chapman for Miggy. This was three pieces, two of which were producing at the major league level, and one a large lottery ticket. This trade was quickly rejected, and the O.N. Thugs quietly hit the pavement, looking for pitching help, that would have made losing Kershaw palatable. An inquiry about Roy Oswalt were made to the Whiffers , who were in last place and should have been looking to rebuild. Chapman and Bard were made available. But the Whiffers politely declined. An inquiry was made about Shawn Marcum, but the price was a bit on the high side. The JimmyDix announced that they were possibly moving Cliff Lee. Some talks started, with Bard, Cecil, Chapman, and Peavy being offered for Cliff Lee and B.J. Upton (who JimmyDix has been shopping). But that offer was rejected on 7/25. At this point, there had been no new communications from Cheeseheads. And without the ability to find SP to replace the production of Kershaw, the Thugs could not pull the trigger on the trade and still feel comfortable about their chances in 2010. It appeared that Miggy was not going to be an O.N. Thug.

ACT IV - RESOLUTION

At this point, the Miggy for Posey and Kershaw trade had been in play for 8 days. Trades are automatically canceled by Yahoo! after 10 days. The O.N. Thugs' front office made the decision that they weren't going to bid against themselves in this trade. A quick look across the UPL suggested that the only teams that had the pieces to really make a run at Miggy were Phatsnapper and Black Sox. But, it appeared that Phatsnapper was content with his offense , and neither Phatsnapper, nor Black Sox, seemed inclined to move their core, young pitching. JimmyDix had deemed Lester to be untouchable, and would have been selling his other young talent at a low price. Other teams teams like IamJabrone, Westy's Sluggers, or '90 Reds didn't have the depth of keepable, young talent to move.

At the same times, they were keeping an eye on 2011, and was pretty content with the direction of the team. Posey and Posada formed the best quality/depth at C in the UPL. Dunn, Jeter, Wright, Choo, and Markakis could be counted on for solid production. Andrus was the SS-in-waiting. And the core of the pitching staff was still Lincecum, Kershaw, Carpenter, Volquez, Soria, K-Rod, and Bailey. Being able to hold on to Nathan and Bard until mid-March would add certainty to the keeper decisions. And choosing from Cecil, Willingham, Hart, and Fowler as the 18th keeper wouldn't be a terrible option.

The Thugs were ready to move forward with this team, so they moved Russell Martin for Howie Kendrick, mainly with the intention of getting some value for Martin, and having Kendrick help make up some games at 2B, with a slight chance of being a keeper in 2011. The front office figured that they'd be able to create some offense through team management, and making up another 4 or 5 games at 2B would be good enough.

The Thugs were about the prepare a thank-you note for Cheeseheads, and officially decline the trade, when another trade offer showed up. Buster Posey, Aroldis Chapman, Daniel Bard, and Joe Nathan for Miggy and Joel Zumaya. Joel Zumaya was completely irrelevant in this trade. He was an injury prone set-up man, who was stuck behind Jose Valverde even when he was healthy. What required a little thought was the inclusion of Bard and Nathan, over Cecil.

Bard was already contributing this year (1.84/0.86 with 51K in 49IP), and pitched at a similar level in 2008. The rampant speculation amongst Red Sox folks (in particular Bill Simmons, which makes it folk wisdom amongst the masses) was that Papelbon was going to be moved at some point, since someone was going to sign him to a 4-year, $56 million sort of deal in free agency, and that Bard was going to take over at some point in 2011 or 2012 at the latest. The story with Joe Nathan was that he had Tommy John surgery back in April, and was out of 2010. His rehab had started, and he was projected to be ready for spring training. His value was in his contract. He was signed through 2011, with a club option for 2012. This meant that the Twins were going to have him as their closer, as long as he was healthy. For small market teams, money matters, and a guy making $11 million was going to get first dibs at a money position. Combined, these two looked to be valuable pieces, particularly in 2011. If either one of them came through, then someone like K-Rod could be shopped for a frontline player.

What tipped the deal was that none of the pieces, save Posey, would really change the championship calculus for the O.N. Thugs in 2010. Chapman's a 2011-12 lottery ticket. Nathan was on the DL all year, and is a 2011 piece. Bard was helping the rate stats, but similar production could be found. Obviously, losing Posey makes C a much more tenuous position for the O.N. Thugs. But the thought is that Miggy's numbers would more than make up for it in 2010. And the biggest factor for the O.N. Thugs' 2010 chances is that neither Kershaw nor Cecil were moved (which has been doubly important with Volquez being smacked around his last 2 starts). So, with that a new (Cabr)Era in O.N. Thugs history has started.

EPILOGUE?

The O.N. Thugs still have some speculative talent, to go with the established talent. Miggy, Wright, Dunn, and Choo appear to be the offensive cornerstones. Jeter and Posada have at least one more year of keepable value, and Andrus is the SS-in-waiting. Markakis is still a bit of a question mark, but will be adequate at the very least. Lincecum, Carpenter, Kershaw, Cecil, and Volquez anchor a strong rotation. Soria, K-Rod, and Bailey form a good bullpen. And the Thugs have two more spots to choose from Hart, Willingham, Fowler, Kendrick, Peavy, Porcello, Morrow, and Venters. This makes for a competitive keeper roster, particularly on the pitching side of things. This was very similar to how the O.N. Thugs entered 2010. With a major difference being the addition of Miguel Cabrera.

The Cheeseheads may still be rebuilding, but at the very least add more depth to their discussion. Posey, Tulo, Crawford, Soto, Soriano, Ike Davis, and Carlos Pena seem to be players that you have to keep. Probably Adam Lind, as well. With regard to pitching, Cain, Rafael Soriano, Axford, Chapman, Bard, and Nathan are guys that will be committed to, and Clayton Richard, Gavin Floyd are likely keepers, as well. After that, you will have two choices between guys like Vernon Wells, Raul Ibanez, Ian Kennedy, David Aardsma, Jason Vargas, Randy Wells, and Ted Lilly. The story of this trade for the Cheeseheads is that they will get to choose from a deeper crop of keepers with much higher ceilings for 2011 and beyond.

As for the future? That's still to be written. If this ends up with another O.N. Thugs Championship, then the trade's a resounding victory. When you're gunning for championships, you take your runs when you can without wrecking your future, your happy. And even if the future for the pieces you move end up being great, so long as your team is still great, you're still happy.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

2010 UPL Baseball Mid-Season Report Cards - The Short Bus

To wrap up, let's take a look at the short bus. Note that these places in the standings have adjusted slightly from when I started giving out Mid-Season grades.

Cheeseheads - 10th Place

Strong Moves: Found a lot of offensive help in the draft (Adrian Beltre, Corey Hart, Vernon Wells). Unfortunately, this didn't address the major weaknesses of the team coming in, which was pitching. Got some much needed youth in Ike Davis. Found Kelly Johnson early, who's been very good at 2B. Got younger with Gavin Floyd, who has been good over his last 9 starts (after being dreadful to start the season). Found Clayton Richard and Ian Kennedy early on, both of whom are young and have been solid. Found John Axford, who seems to have a solid hold on the Brewers' closing role.

Boner Moves: Struck out with the arms in his draft. Gave up on Corey Hart way too early. Taking on Ibanez seems to be moving against the strategy of getting younger, as Granderson was younger (but has been on a downward trend the last few years).

Future Outlook: Huge question mark with the Miguel Cabrera trade, which is a classic high-risk, high-reward situation. Posey and Bard immediately step in and become legitimate starters, and both have super high ceilings. If Nathan comes back in 2011 as the closer, then the bullpen is stabilized, and some trade pieces can emerge. Chapman is a huge lottery ticket, that you won't find out about until half-way through 2011, at the earliest. In addition to these 4 players, there are some very solid veteran, keepers to build around longterm (Crawford, Tulo, Soto), as well as in a 2-3 year frame (Soriano, Wells, Pena) on the offensive side. Some decent, young pitching can also be built on (Cain, Richard, Kennedy, Floyd), and there are some closers to round out the roster (Soriano, Axford, Aardsma). Overall quality of the roster needs to continue to improve to move into podium contention.

Mid-term Grade: B. Is currently in the middle of getting younger. Has found some nice, young parts. But the grade probably should be an incomplete - the real result is what happens with Posey, Bard, Chapman, and Nathan.

Westy's Sluggers - 11th Place

Strong Moves: Drafting Bucholz, Loney, and Latos, which gives quality and youth. Picking up Ike Davis, and using him to get Beltre. Keeping Alex Rios from last year, who has been very good this year. Carl Pavano and Brett Myers have been solid veteran contributors. Finding a likely keeper C (Martin) at a low cost (a 3rd 2B in Kendrick).

Boner Moves: Giving up on Latos too early (while hanging on to questionable pieces - who the hell's Scott Baker?). Selling Matt Holliday too cheaply (and has been intent on doing so for a while, it seems). Moving their best pitcher (Lester) for Kinsler, who's redundant at 2B and only so-so at UTIL, without an obvious follow-up plan. Not addressing closer effectively enough in the draft.

Future Outlook: This roster needs an overall quality increase, and needs to get younger. Dotel, Pavano, Abreu, Hunter, Young, and Berkman are all 33+ this year. Lackey, Webb, Beltre, and Utley are 31. Myers is 30. Really, only Loney (26), Bucholz (26), Nunez (27), Martin (27), Kinsler (28), Sizemore (28), Rios (29) look to be keepers under 30, and none are exactly young anymore (and some of serious questions, like Sizemore). This means that some trades need to happen, otherwise, this team will be in purgatory.

Mid-term Grade: C-. The drop-off from 2009 is stark, though many of the players from 2009 had career years. An honest assessment of 2009 success should have prompted more urgency in the trade market, particularly with Abreu, Hunter, and Berkman. Got unlucky with injuries at 2B, so there wasn't a real opportunity to get value for Kendrick. But when C-Lauff starts mocking you and telling you to "Have fun in 19th place," then maybe you need to get things straightened out.

Muddy Mush Heads - 12th Place

Strong Moves: Found Mike Leake, who looks to be a nice, young arm. Rode some success from Carlos Silva, who has since cooled a bit. Has gotten solid pitching efforts from Benoit and Gorzelanny.

Boner Moves: Got off to a horrible start by gambling on Jermaine Dye as a keeper. Gave up on Chris Young way too early. Has dropped Cueto and Tommy Hunter, who have both been solid and are still young. It appears that the Derek Lee trade isn't going to be a winning one, as Jonathan Sanchez has continued his solid play.

Future Outlook: Probably should have rode Cueto and Hunter for longer stretches - those two would look awfully nice with Johan Santana, Phil Hughes, and Mike Leake as your starting rotation in 2011. This is a very old offense, with guys like Carlos and Derek Lee, Ichiro, Furcal, Brian Roberts, and Chone Figgins being relied on heavily. The only legit, young star on offense appears to be Joey Votto. There isn't enough value on Roberts or either Lee to get a worthwhile trade done. However, there may be some willing takers for the speed.

Mid-term Grade: C-. This team needed to have a major overhaul, and get at least a little lucky. Neither has really happened. In fact, the good moves are relatively small in magnitude, in comparison to the Cueto and Hunter drops.

Chicago Zambroneheads - 13th Place

Strong Moves: Acquired Matt Holliday and spare parts for Michael Young and Grady Sizemore, which has worked out very well. Solid production from Tyler Clippard, Mike Pelfrey, Jose Guillen, Alex Gonzalez, and Ty Wigginton, all of whom were found in free agency. Getting some speed from Scott Podsednik in the draft.

Boner Moves: Gave away David Ortiz, right before Papi righted the ship. Wasn't able to find any value for Ibanez. Bad draft restricted the ability to make trades to improve team. Has held on to Billy Wagner (who is retiring after this season) too long - the gameplan should have been to hope for a strong start from Wagner, and then move him out in May/June to get good value. Now, may not be able to get as much for a 2 month rental.

Future Outlook: There are always going to be hiccups with expansion, and this team needed to be perfect to get into the top half this year. The goal is to end up with 18 reasonable keepers, and try to attack in 2011 or 2012. The team started with about 10 or so of these players, and at this point, only have 8 or 9 on the roster, so this has been a bad opening set. Looking at ways to get value should be the key between now and the trade deadline.

Mid-term Grade: C-. Even if the moves had been perfect, there's a chance that this team could have been stuck in the bottom 1/3 of the league. But in reality, a few small wins was overwhelmed by one big mistake (Big Papi).

-Chairman (O.N. Thugs)

2010 UPL Baseball Mid-Season Report Cards - The Rest of the Pack

After the first cut of teams, there are about another 5 teams that are in the rest of the pack, led by last year's runner-up.

IamJabrone - 5th Place

Strong Moves: Strong draft, picking up young players who have performed (Santana, Posey, Bard), particularly at the tough-to-find C. Made a play for Andre Ethier who has been as advertised (though it cost Josh Johnson, who's been lights out). Has gotten above average production out of a less than ideal pitching staff, by finding some talent along the way (Cueto, Medlen, Simon)

Boner Moves: Who the hell's Buster Posey? Have also fed the O.N. Thugs Daniel Bard,a quality set-up man, and probable BoSox closer in 2012. Mystifying lack of moves by the front office, as guys coming off of 2009 career years have fallen back to earth (Reynolds, Hill). Has lost out on trade value, while holding on to extra 2B who aren't quite good enough to play at UTIL. Pinned SS hopes to Alcides Escobar, who has been bad, and hasn't changed course. Testing the theory that any offense with Albert Pujols will be competitive.

Future Outlook: Doesn't look like this team's got it for 2010, and it's hard to tell if they're rebuilding or if they're trying to compete. You don't get the impression that this roster is one that just needs a couple tweaks to win in 2011.

Mid-term Grade: C-. This team could have been a podium team, though asking for a championship may have been a bit much. But a reluctance to trade definitely has hurt the chances. Now, players like Aaron Hill and Ian Stewart are much less likely to get back enough value to matter this year. But the rebuilding seems to be somewhat muted. Stuck in-between is a tough place to be.

SuckmyKnuckleballs - 6th Place

Strong Moves: Has gotten the better end of the Gavin Floyd for Paul Konerko trade. Found potential SS of the future in Starlin Castro, who has performed reasonably so far. Excellent production out of Andy Pettite (2nd round draft pick), and has gotten good results out of other un-sexy veterans (Scott Rolen, Tim Hudson)

Boner Moves: Run into a couple tough seasons by a couple talented pitchers (Beckett, Burnett). Has held on to some under-performing vets that don't have much upside (Tejada, Cameron, Hoffman).

Future Outlook: If Beckett and Burnett get their heads on straight, and guys like Bay, Braun, and Matsui have big 2nd halves, this team could sneak onto the podium. But more likely, it's looking like a team that's headed for a finish between 4th and 8th.

Mid-term Grade: B-. This was a 5th place team last year, and has been in the same ball park this year. This suggests a pretty average grade.

'90 Reds - 7th Place

Strong Moves: No need to play Frankenstein at 2B, as McGehee has been solid. Has gotten enough production out of the Frankenstein at closer (Capps and Lindstrom). Taking a chance on Big Papi, who's looking like he's back to being a legit fantasy player. Getting enough production out of top set-up guys (Kuo, Storen, Gregerson) to get back into competition in pitching. Has found some young SP to perhaps rebuild staff (Travis Wood, Wade LeBlanc, Mat Latos).

Boner Moves: Believing that Bartlett's fluky 2009 would continue, and not having a backup plan. Using the 3rd overall draft pick on Octavio Dotel. Couldn't move any veteran SP who overachieved in 2009 (Javy Vasquez, Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson), and have been saddled with poor 2010 results (combined 19-25 with about a 4.60/1.35). No trades, despite the underperformance across the board?

Future Outlook: This is a team that's sort of in transition. There's some good young pieces (Gonzalez, Upton, Sandoval?). Some veterans in their primes (Ryan Howard, Victor Martinez), and some that you don't want to predict anything about (Manny, A-Ram, Papi).

Mid-term Grade: INC. This team has managed to pull itself up from the bottom of the standings to the middle of the standings. We'll see if this continues. A move into the top tier would make this year's grade an A, whereas staying in the middle of the pack makes it a C.

Benver Droncos - 8th Place

Strong Moves: Great trade in picking up Rasmus and Volquez for Upton. Has gotten a lot of production out of free agency (SP - Colby Lewis, Barry Zito, Trevor Cahill; Austin Jackson). Jon Rauch (4th round) has been helpful for SV.

Boner Moves: Cano for Weiters has been absolute disaster for 2010 chances, though this may balance out in the next few years. Jury is out on the Volquez for Neise trade. Dropped Jose Bautista way too early.

Future Outlook: Has been willing to make trades to get younger and give the team a shot in 2011 or 2012 - has turned Upton and Cano into Weiters, Rasmus, and Neise. Young A's arms (Cahill and Brett Anderson) could help anchor pitching staff, along with Ubaldo Jimenez, who's still only 26. Will need to sort out what they want to do with some vets (Jimmy Rollins comes to mind, but also Vlad, Kuroda, Zito, Victorino, and maybe even Morneau). Those pieces can probably fetch some solid prospects.

Mid-term Grade: B+. This was the last place team from 2009.

Black Sox - 9th Place

Strong Moves: Gotten all-star production out of Miguel Olivo and some SV from Kevin Gregg, both from free agency. Nice job moving quality for quality, getting Josh Johnson. Drafting Strasburg #2 was pretty much a sure thing, but still qualifies as a strong move.

Boner Moves: Not many moves made - the offense is above average, but could use one or two more pieces. Not so much of a boner move, but rather just taking some lumps with the young pitching, which has had ups and downs.

Future Outlook: Awfully good looking, young pitching staff (Johnson, Strasburg, Verlander, Romero, Billingsley), with a couple wild cards that could still pan out (Marcum, Joba, Kazmir, Matusz). This is a roster that's begging to be tinkered with in trade talks.

Mid-term Grade: B+. Last season's 8th place team has made a somewhat lateral move, but has stockpiled some serious arms, to complement the solid offense. Maybe a bit late to make a move for 2010, but the idea of being a podium in 2011 should entice some more moves.

Next time, we'll wrap things up by taking a look at the kids on the short bus.

-Chairman (O.N. Thugs)

2010 UPL Baseball Mid-Season Report Cards - Head of the Class

As we head into the back half of 2010 Baseball, there are some surprises at the top of the UPL, but the team currently sitting on top of the UPL is a very familiar one:

O.N. Thugs - 1st Place

Strong Moves: Drafting enough potential power so that 2 guys worked out (Glaus and Willingham). Working the waiver wire to improve squad ( lucking into Buster Posey; getting power out of Andruw Jones and Corey Hart; finding some arms like Brett Cecil, Jonathon Niese, Tommy Hunter, Johnny Cueto, Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden). Getting a Volquez lottery ticket for Jonathon Niese (though in 3 starts w/ Benver, Niese is 2-1, 3.55/1.18, with 25K in 25.1 IP). No panic trades after slow offensive start.

Boner Moves: Dropping Braden right before perfect game, and not afterwards. Hanging on to losing players too long, and as a result, cycling through high ceiling pitchers a little too quickly (Cueto, Cahill, Hunter), and not being patient enough w/ Thome.

Future Outlook: Still the team to beat, in 2010 and beyond. Still a number of fantasy points that the O.N. Thugs are legitimately chasing. There's enough roster flexibility left to take a couple shots at some talent, and to position team for future.

Mid-term Grade: A-. Still some work to be done. Position on top of the UPL looks somewhat tenuous in comparisons to some prior O.N. Thugs seasons. But you can't argue with the results to this point.

Hats for Bats - 2nd Place

Strong Moves: Drafted young talent, which proved to be useful in new UPL trade environment, which led to... Stealing Jered Weaver away from JimmyDix for Justin Smoak, at least for 2010 (jury will be out on this one until 2014 or so). Finding all sorts of young talent in free agency (Jamie Garcia, Brennan Boesch), as well as 2010 production (Jose Bautista, Chris Young, Aubrey Huff).

Boner Moves: Very unlucky, but the Heyward/Kendry Morales for Marlon Byrd/Jose Valverde/Adrian Gonzalez trade looks really lopsided for 2010 (though will probably look much better in 2011 and beyond). Aside from this, it's been a relatively boner-free 1st half. Dropped Hong-Chih Kuo, who has proven to be a plus-fantasy player, and real-life all-star.

Future Outlook: This is the team that Greg was hyping last year (saying that anything less than a podium-type performance would be disappointing), which never materialized until this year. Will be hard pressed to make up for the production lost w/ Morales, without hurting other stats

Mid-term Grade: A. Will have to balance future position w/ the chance to win in 2010. But a bunch of solid moves, with virtually no boner moves, have taken Hats for Bats up the standings, and shows that a rise from the bottom to the top is definitely possible.

Phatsnapper - 3rd Place

Strong Moves: Martin Prado in the 1st round of the draft worked out well. Absolute swindle of Robinson Cano (for Matt Weiters) before opening day. Shifted quality for quality, and picked up some speed with Brett Gardner (for Martin Prado). Picking up young talent in free agency (Delmon Young, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez).

Boner Moves: Not making a play for SV, which would make team legit championship contender. Rest of draft, aside from Prado was not very helpful. Probably sitting on a little too much potential on the bench.

Future Outlook: Quality young SP, and some top-end offensive talent makes this team a contender for the long-haul. This year, we're looking at somewhere in the top 4. But a little more management would go a long way.

Mid-term Grade: B. This team has largely managed itself since the start of the season, so the design of the team has been pretty good to be in podium position. But this team could easily be sitting on top of the UPL, so it's hard to give a higher grade.

JimmyDix - 4th Place

Strong Moves: Despite taking grief, Marlon Byrd in the 1st round has been a solid pickup. Getting Jon Lester for Ian Kinsler. Filling a hole at 2B by getting Martin Prado for Brett Gardner. Finding some quality in free agency (Gardner, Mike Stanton, Jim Thome, Tyler Colvin, Mike Leake)

Boner Moves: Giving away Jered Weaver, which has stymied some potential trade opportunities. Overpaying for B.J. Upton (Rasmus and Volquez). Dropping Mike Leake twice. Giving up a little too early on Andruw Jones. Giving up way too early on Corey Hart, Clayton Richard. Seems that day-to-day lineups are a bit sub-optimal, given how the overall offensive stats look.

Future Outlook: Pieces are on the roster for a top-4 finish in 2010, but may not have quite enough to make a run for the title. Positioned reasonably well moving forward. Probably not done making moves (and seems to make a lot of moves - some of which are brilliant, while others are awful...). But if you told me that this team would be a podium in 2011, I'd believe you, and if you told me that this team would be a bottom-4 team in 2011, I'd believe you, too.

Mid-term Grade: B. How do you average out a couple A-moves with a couple D-moves? I think that this grade is a reasonable one, given the rise in the standings from last year.

Next time, we'll move from the Head of the Class to the Rest of the Pack. And after that, we'll look at the Kids on the Short Bus.

-Chairman (O.N. Thugs)