We are continuing on with our UPL Basketball Preview. Part I took a look at last year's podium teams. Now, we're going to look at 4 teams that appear to be contenders for the UPL podium.
IAmJabrone:
Last year's 4th place team. UPL Career Triple Crown (2005 Hoops, 2008 Baseball, 2008 Football). Generally expected to finish 2nd or 3rd, and generally expects to finish 2nd or 3rd.
2009-10 Outlook: Strong keeper core, based on Yahoo! pre-rank. Anchored by legit fantasy superstar D-Wade (who mysteriously fell to 9 in the original keeper draft). Keepers may be top-heavy (variability with Horford and D-Rose, production decline and lack of shooting ability from Josh Smith). Carmelo may put up over 30 PPG in high tempo Denver system. Current roster has an extreme lack of depth (Anthony Randolph was somewhat strange 1st draft pick, Sessions is not playable, Lawson is young and a reserve, T-Mac is out)
Potential Injury Impact: High. D-Wade, Gilbert Arenas, Jermaine O'Neal, Rip Hamilton are all being counted on, and all are injury prone players. T-Mac was a lottery ticket, but is out for at least the first month.
Positional Battles: Not many, due to roster composition. May be tempted to play Anthony Randolph, as he was #1 overall pick in draft this year.
Book a UPL Title If: Everyone stays healthy. Josh Smith's regression was a fluke. Anthony Randolph is legit.
Life Becomes Easier If: Horford and D-Rose both continue to improve. T-Mac comes back healthy in December. Carmelo's early season play is for real.
Will Go Down in Flames If: D-Wade goes down. Can't get help in free agency.
Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): PTS, AST
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FG%, OREB, REB, BLK, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FT%, 3PM,
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 66 points. Range from 60 to 72. Likely top half team, but lack of depth will make trading a more difficult option. Will need more luck than usual to make a legit run.
Westy's Balltastics:
Last year's 5th place team, who still can't believe they didn't win. 2-time UPL Basketball Champ (2003, 2004). Typically a top 4 UPL team. Has difficulty in trade talks, often due to poor application of game theory or human psychology.
2009-10 Outlook: Strong top-6 keepers. Then team talent falls off, as evidenced by keeping Luis Scola. Lots of help in the draft, particularly with Marc Gasol and Channing Frye's early play. Will have a solid core, though there may be a lack of elite scoring. May run into issues with real-life playing time w/ Conley and AI. 3PM will hinge on Channing Frye. Will have a lot of flexibility in playing for specific stat categories, and has bigs to move. Lack of obvious quality at PG.
Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Top 2 players (Al Jefferson and KG) are coming off injury, and need to be healthy. Caron Butler and Devin Harris always seem to be nicked up, but never too major. However, team is relatively deep and has statistical flexibility save for AST.
Positional Battles: Competition between Conley/Iverson/Bibby for at least 1 starting spot. May need to fill 2 spots w/ Gasol/Scola/Frye.
Book a UPL Title If: Al Jefferson is healthy and as effective as last year. KG hasn't aged in dog years.
Life Becomes Easier If: Gasol and Frye continue to play as well as they have. Another PG emerges, either from roster, free agency, or trade.
Will Go Down in Flames If: The manager misplays roster. Injury bug hits again
Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, STL
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, PTS, OREB, REB, AST, BLK, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 71 points. Range from 68 to 81. Should get back on to podium after last year's collapse. Legit contender, w/ enough roster flexibility to get extra points, but no 1st tier start to ride. Upside potential as high as anyone else in league.
Chowtime:
Last year's 6th place team. Typically a top-half UPL team. Has 2 podium finishes, both of which came at the expense of Westy on the last day of the season.
2009-10 Outlook: Top 4 keepers are ranked ridiculously high (Dirk, Granger, Gasol, Vinsanity). Then team talent falls off dramatically. Needed help in the draft, and got it when teams fell asleep at the wheel (or bet on Anthony Randolph), netting Blake Griffin. Yao, Flynn, and Curry are potential keepers, but may reduce the ability to win this year. Team should be really efficient, but may not have enough of the counting stats.
Potential Injury Impact: Huge - already happening. Yao takes spot, and reduces flexibility. Vinsanity is always nicked. Griffin has been hit with the Clipper Curse. Gasol hasn't played, yet. Already may be forced to surrender games played at C. If anything else bad happens, may not be able to recover.
Positional Battles: Ideally, between Flynn and Curry, you only play 1, but both are being forced into action. Ditto for Thaddeus Young, Battier, and Blatche.
Book a UPL Title If: Kaman keeps up the 22 and 10 pace. Yao somehow comes back this year and is good. Griffin, Curry, and Flynn are 1-2-3 in ROY voting.
Life Becomes Easier If: Injuries let up.
Will Go Down in Flames If: There isn't a real change soon - it's hard to carry 4 injured players on a 14 man roster. All 10 of the other guys have to stay healthy, and they all have to be good!
Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, FT%, 3PM, A/TO
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): PTS, AST, STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): OREB, REB
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 72 points. Range from 62 to 82. Legit contender, but may not be able to get help w/ a trade. If Blake Griffin comes back and is putting up 8+ rebounds per game, that could change the calculus very quickly. Things could go south for this team, more so than others.
SuckMyDribblingBalls:
Last year's 7th place team. Typically a top 4 UPL team, but stopped actively managing team last year, due to the presence of craz Mexican in the house. Now that the divorce is final, should have more time to manage team.
2009-10 Outlook: Strong in the middle, with Duncan and Howard anchoring REB and BLK. Adding on Oden and Okafor essentially locks up BLK, with one of the two looking like attractive trade bait. Kobe will help with points, but it may not be enough, if you need to carry Kidd and Oden in the lineup (both at about 8 PPG). Unhealthy fascination with Rudy Fernandez, who probably should not have been kept - Jeff Green would have helped this team immensely.
Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Obviously, Kobe must stay healthy. Lots of depth with the bigs, but is thin at guard. Really dependent on Kidd for AST and A/TO. Grant Hill is old, Duncan is getting old, Okafor and Oden are injury prone. Things could go downhill very quickly.
Positional Battles: Ideally, either Felton or Augustin step up and become legit fantasy options. Also, Okafor or Oden (probably don't want both starting)
Book a UPL Title If: Kobe is Kobe. Dwight Howard learns a 2nd low-post move. One of the extra bigs is traded for a legit 3PM and AST option.
Life Becomes Easier If: Both Felton and Augustin emerge as legit options. Tayshaun Prince finally makes The Leap. Okafor gets along with CP3.
Will Go Down in Flames If: Injury to Kidd or Kobe. Keeps playing Rudy Fernandez too mcuh.
Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, OREB, REB, BLK
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): PTS, AST, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FT%, 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 72 points. Range from 65 to 79 points. Team will be very good in rebounding and blocks, but needs help scoring. Should be able to move a big and get some stats back in return.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Friday, October 30, 2009
UPL Basketball Preview (Part I)
Now that the draft has come and gone, it's time to take a look into the crystal ball, and see how each team looks. Now, the UPL has a bit of a history. If you take a look at how things have played out since the 2005 season, you can see the expected average, high, and low team totals for each stat category.
This gives you a nice way to get a quick idea of where teams' fantasy points project out to. It's a nice little reference point to have before we start looking at each team. And to further simplify this, if you normalize by 820, you get some idea of what sort of numbers per game, your players need to average.
So, you need to average at least 16 PPG, 6 REB, 3.5 AST, and chip in 1 3PM, 1 STL and 1 BLK if you want to be competitive. And you should be looking at .467 from the field, .774 from the line, and 1.65 A/T. That should get you to about 60 points (11 team league), which would have put you in 8th place last year. Based on last year's finish, the league looks like it's going to have 4 teams who are in long-term building mode, and 7 teams that have legit shots to win it now.
So, with out further ado, we'll take a look at the teams that are probably going to be fighting for the top spot. Certainly, the base assumption is that teams stay healthy. Projected stats, and the corresponding fantasy performance is based on the likely distribution of playing time, that an active owner would assign. First, we will look at WakeUpWithTheKing and the O.N. Thugs, the two returning co-champs, as well as Sparty Rules, the team that fell out of first place in the last week of the season. Part II will focus on the other 4 likely contenders, and Part III will examine the 4 teams that are likely in rebuilding mode.
O.N. Thugs:
Last year's co-champs. Four consecutive champ/co-champs. UPL GOAT. Willing to mix it up with trades. Obsessed with Deron Williams since 2002.
2009-10 Outlook: 8 Keepers are all locked in as obvious starters, with question marks at SF and UTIL2. Balanced, deep team w/out a true fantasy pantheon player. Missed draft. Has already released 3 out of 6 auto-drafted players, and picked up young players as replacements. Lots of depth at PG, which may help in future trades.
Potential Injury Impact: Relatively low. Balanced team with lots of positional flexibility. The O.N. Thugs have historically been able to use team depth to make trades when injuries arise.
Positional Battles: Mike Miller/J.R. Smith/Danilo Gallinari at SF; those players, plus Louis Williams/Brandon Jennings at UTIL2.
Book a 5-Peat If: Boozer regains fitness and scoring touch. Russell Westbrook shoots above 43% from the floor.
Life Becomes Easier If: Either J.R. Smith or Danilo Gallinari put up reasonable peripheral stats to go with their 2-3 3PM per game. Mike Miller scores 12 PPG, and becomes an everyday starter. Brandon Jennings really is a 17, 9, and 6 guy.
Will Go Down in Flames If: Portland and Utah team planes crash into each other in real life.
Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): PTS, OREB, REB, AST
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FG%, FT%, STL, BLK, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 75 points. Range from 70 to 80. Would be surprising if they finished worse than 3rd place.
WakeUpWithTheKing:
Last year's co-champs. Relatively new to the UPL, but has established a top-half reputation. Has LeBron.
2009-10 Outlook: Has LeBron, which helps in so many ways. Lots of question marks due to injury. Has a couple category specialists, so some fine-tuning may be needed. May need help on the boards, especially if Shaq hurts scoring too much to play. Calderon will stabilize A/TO, but not enough depth in AST. Loss of Rashard Lewis for 10 games may keep this team from really being a top 3PM team. May be able to trade BLK to make up other stats. Did I mention he has LeBron?
Potential Injury Impact: Moderate to high. LeBron aside, losing anyone on the roster wouldn't be catastrophic. However, Shaq, Ginobli, Chandler, Bynum, and Gerald Wallace all have injury histories.
Positional Battles: Lots of combinations are in play. LeBron, Calderon, Gerald Wallace, Rashard Lewis, and Andrew Bynum will always play. Probably same goes for Ginobli, O.J. Mayo and Tyrus Thomas (though they're less certain). Chandler and Shaq appear to be similar fantasy players at this point.
Book a Repeat If: Injury bug stays away. Bynum makes The Leap. We look back and decide that Shaq was deserving of being a keeper. Tyrus Thomas gets PT and becomes a 14+ PPG guy.
Life Becomes Easier If: Shaq and Chandler aren't done. Rashard Lewis comes back with vengeance. Tyreke Evans and Terrence Willams step up.
Will Go Down in Flames If: LeBron gets hurt. Mayo and Tyrus Thomas get squeezed in playing time/shots. Don't get help from Tyreke Evans and Terrence Williams.
Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): BLK
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, 3PM, PTS, OREB, REB, AST, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 68 points. Range from 62 to 74 points. Top-half team, but doesn't have the look of a top-3 finish.
Sparty Rules:
3rd place last year. Fell from 1st place in the last week. Traditionally a top-half UPL team. Has CP3, and took him over LeBron.
2009-10 Outlook: Has CP3, which automatically makes you competitive in AST and A/TO. Scoring will probably be a concern, as will FG%, given the relatively lower quality big men. A few questions marks about how players will fit in new roles or new surroundings (Artest, Bargnani, Turkoglu, Stuckey). Camby is coming off injury, and if injury prone.
Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Obviously, CP3 going down would be catastrophic. Virtually all of the likely big man starters (Camby, Artest, Marvin Williams, and Troy Murphy) have injury track records.
Positional Battles: Suckey and Hinrich are jockeying to be 3rd guard, though neither is desirable at UTIL. Could shift Turkoglu to guard, if Artest is a worthwhile starter. Birdman/Dalembert could take PT from Diaw/Marvin Williams if BLK are needed.
A UPL Title is in the Works If: Stuckey and Jeff Green make The Leap. Turkoglu replicates numbers in Canada, without hurting Bargnani development.
Life Becomes Easier If: Diaw establishes himself as a legit fantasy player. Artest's numbers stay reasonable.
Will Go Down in Flames If: CP3 gets hurt. Turkoglu and Bargnani cannabalize each other's numbers.
Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FT%, 3PM, REB, AST, A/TO
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%, OREB, PTS
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 70 points. CP3's UPL supporting cast looks better than LeBron's. Top half finish for sure. Likely top 4.
| FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | OREB | REB | AST | ST | BLK | A/T | |
| PROJ AVG | 0.467 | 0.774 | 738 | 12960 | 1233 | 4898 | 2789 | 835 | 564 | 1.65 |
| PROJ MAX | 0.481 | 0.810 | 955 | 15078 | 1461 | 5514 | 3427 | 977 | 678 | 1.97 |
| PROJ MIN | 0.456 | 0.738 | 511 | 10741 | 999.5 | 4044 | 2223 | 690 | 404 | 1.43 |
This gives you a nice way to get a quick idea of where teams' fantasy points project out to. It's a nice little reference point to have before we start looking at each team. And to further simplify this, if you normalize by 820, you get some idea of what sort of numbers per game, your players need to average.
| FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | OREB | REB | AST | ST | BLK | A/T | |
| Per Player AVG | 0.467 | 0.774 | 0.9 | 15.8 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.65 |
| Per Player MAX | 0.481 | 0.81 | 1.2 | 18.4 | 1.8 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.97 |
| Per Player MIN | 0.456 | 0.738 | 0.6 | 13.1 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.43 |
So, you need to average at least 16 PPG, 6 REB, 3.5 AST, and chip in 1 3PM, 1 STL and 1 BLK if you want to be competitive. And you should be looking at .467 from the field, .774 from the line, and 1.65 A/T. That should get you to about 60 points (11 team league), which would have put you in 8th place last year. Based on last year's finish, the league looks like it's going to have 4 teams who are in long-term building mode, and 7 teams that have legit shots to win it now.
So, with out further ado, we'll take a look at the teams that are probably going to be fighting for the top spot. Certainly, the base assumption is that teams stay healthy. Projected stats, and the corresponding fantasy performance is based on the likely distribution of playing time, that an active owner would assign. First, we will look at WakeUpWithTheKing and the O.N. Thugs, the two returning co-champs, as well as Sparty Rules, the team that fell out of first place in the last week of the season. Part II will focus on the other 4 likely contenders, and Part III will examine the 4 teams that are likely in rebuilding mode.
O.N. Thugs:
Last year's co-champs. Four consecutive champ/co-champs. UPL GOAT. Willing to mix it up with trades. Obsessed with Deron Williams since 2002.
2009-10 Outlook: 8 Keepers are all locked in as obvious starters, with question marks at SF and UTIL2. Balanced, deep team w/out a true fantasy pantheon player. Missed draft. Has already released 3 out of 6 auto-drafted players, and picked up young players as replacements. Lots of depth at PG, which may help in future trades.
Potential Injury Impact: Relatively low. Balanced team with lots of positional flexibility. The O.N. Thugs have historically been able to use team depth to make trades when injuries arise.
Positional Battles: Mike Miller/J.R. Smith/Danilo Gallinari at SF; those players, plus Louis Williams/Brandon Jennings at UTIL2.
Book a 5-Peat If: Boozer regains fitness and scoring touch. Russell Westbrook shoots above 43% from the floor.
Life Becomes Easier If: Either J.R. Smith or Danilo Gallinari put up reasonable peripheral stats to go with their 2-3 3PM per game. Mike Miller scores 12 PPG, and becomes an everyday starter. Brandon Jennings really is a 17, 9, and 6 guy.
Will Go Down in Flames If: Portland and Utah team planes crash into each other in real life.
Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): PTS, OREB, REB, AST
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FG%, FT%, STL, BLK, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 75 points. Range from 70 to 80. Would be surprising if they finished worse than 3rd place.
WakeUpWithTheKing:
Last year's co-champs. Relatively new to the UPL, but has established a top-half reputation. Has LeBron.
2009-10 Outlook: Has LeBron, which helps in so many ways. Lots of question marks due to injury. Has a couple category specialists, so some fine-tuning may be needed. May need help on the boards, especially if Shaq hurts scoring too much to play. Calderon will stabilize A/TO, but not enough depth in AST. Loss of Rashard Lewis for 10 games may keep this team from really being a top 3PM team. May be able to trade BLK to make up other stats. Did I mention he has LeBron?
Potential Injury Impact: Moderate to high. LeBron aside, losing anyone on the roster wouldn't be catastrophic. However, Shaq, Ginobli, Chandler, Bynum, and Gerald Wallace all have injury histories.
Positional Battles: Lots of combinations are in play. LeBron, Calderon, Gerald Wallace, Rashard Lewis, and Andrew Bynum will always play. Probably same goes for Ginobli, O.J. Mayo and Tyrus Thomas (though they're less certain). Chandler and Shaq appear to be similar fantasy players at this point.
Book a Repeat If: Injury bug stays away. Bynum makes The Leap. We look back and decide that Shaq was deserving of being a keeper. Tyrus Thomas gets PT and becomes a 14+ PPG guy.
Life Becomes Easier If: Shaq and Chandler aren't done. Rashard Lewis comes back with vengeance. Tyreke Evans and Terrence Willams step up.
Will Go Down in Flames If: LeBron gets hurt. Mayo and Tyrus Thomas get squeezed in playing time/shots. Don't get help from Tyreke Evans and Terrence Williams.
Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): BLK
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, 3PM, PTS, OREB, REB, AST, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 68 points. Range from 62 to 74 points. Top-half team, but doesn't have the look of a top-3 finish.
Sparty Rules:
3rd place last year. Fell from 1st place in the last week. Traditionally a top-half UPL team. Has CP3, and took him over LeBron.
2009-10 Outlook: Has CP3, which automatically makes you competitive in AST and A/TO. Scoring will probably be a concern, as will FG%, given the relatively lower quality big men. A few questions marks about how players will fit in new roles or new surroundings (Artest, Bargnani, Turkoglu, Stuckey). Camby is coming off injury, and if injury prone.
Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Obviously, CP3 going down would be catastrophic. Virtually all of the likely big man starters (Camby, Artest, Marvin Williams, and Troy Murphy) have injury track records.
Positional Battles: Suckey and Hinrich are jockeying to be 3rd guard, though neither is desirable at UTIL. Could shift Turkoglu to guard, if Artest is a worthwhile starter. Birdman/Dalembert could take PT from Diaw/Marvin Williams if BLK are needed.
A UPL Title is in the Works If: Stuckey and Jeff Green make The Leap. Turkoglu replicates numbers in Canada, without hurting Bargnani development.
Life Becomes Easier If: Diaw establishes himself as a legit fantasy player. Artest's numbers stay reasonable.
Will Go Down in Flames If: CP3 gets hurt. Turkoglu and Bargnani cannabalize each other's numbers.
Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FT%, 3PM, REB, AST, A/TO
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%, OREB, PTS
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 70 points. CP3's UPL supporting cast looks better than LeBron's. Top half finish for sure. Likely top 4.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
UPL Basketball 2009 Draft Recap
This year, I decided to employ a new strategy. In one of the comments of my last post, I made this bold declaration:
"I am also considering doing something different than my usual plan of going out until 4am the night before the draft, rolling out of bed right when the draft is starting, and then picking guys whose names I can pronounce."
And sure enough, I kept my promise. This year, I stayed out too late, and just slept through the draft entirely. The best part was that right around 10:30, OD gives me a call to remind me about the draft. I groan, pick up the phone, see that it's OD, and decide, "Ugh. I'll just give him a call back later." Then a little later, I wake up at 11:25, and realize that the draft was long over. I'm awesome.
So, this draft recap will be a little different, since it will be more of a historical analysis, than an ethnography. But it should still be interesting. And it's interesting - my philosophy in fantasy sports, particularly keeper leagues, is that you get the guy that you want, unless there's absolute, clear value. This is me taking Deron Williams over D-Wade, because D-Will is my guy, and there's the greater threat of catastrophic injury for D-Wade. I mean, that's probably still a homer pick. But that's my mode of thinking, which makes me surprised at some of the picks that happened in this draft.
Right off the bat, we see some interesting choices. First of all, the Jabrones go with hype, hope for the playing time, and take Anthony Randolph, who's supposed to be coming into his own this year. I'd have played it safer and either gone with Redd or Gordon, or just go with Blake Griffin right there (note we'll ignore the broken kneecap, since that hadn't happened, yet). You can't really fault this pick, since they weren't going to pick again for a while. You get the guy you want.
The next pick is just flat out mystifying. Rasheed is a 35 year old big, who will give you some OK stats, but will probably be option 3a or 3b in Boston this year. He probably only racks up about 28 minutes per game, and probably won't score 12 ppg. His rebounding numbers will go down, and his FG% will be bad since he hangs out on the perimeter and jacks 3's. But other than that, he's great. Given FloorBurns' relatively weak back-end keepers, the pick here should have been Redd or a younger player that is likely to emerge as a keeper. Certainly not Rasheed.
At this point, there are a series of teams that finished low, and need long-term help. I'm OK with Redd going #3 and Gordon going #5. I'm just confused by Charlie Villaneuva at #4. He's still young, but last season, playing for a bad Bucks team, he played 27 minutes per game. Career, he has played 26.5 minutes per game. He'll be in a rotation with a bunch of players in Detroit, and looks to be the 4th or 5th best offensive option on that team (after Gordon, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and maybe Rodney Stuckey). His hustle stats are OK. His shooting is subpar for a big. The odds of him being a keeper next year are about 40-60, against. This pick should have been a much better upside pick (Blake Griffin, Tyrus Thomas, Emeka Okafor, etc.) I'm not really a fan.
Then comes OD, with the 6th pick. And he rolls w/ his UConn guy, Okafor. If he's healthy, Okafor's looking like a 14 and 10 guy, with maybe 1.5 to 2 blocks. The problem is, he's always banged up, and he's actually regressed a bit from his best season in 06-07. If you were evaluating this pick in a bubble, you can definitely make a good case for it. But the problem is that Chowtime picks 7th. As I noted before, his team was ranked really high up top, but his last 2 keepers were marginal, at best. And he ends up with Blake Griffin. This is a very scary outcome, actually, and this would probably have not happened had I been awake, as I probably would have berated OD until he picked Griffin. Now Westy misses out on his chance to upgrade his 8th keeper from Luis Scola to Blake Griffin, who goes to Chowtime.
Westy wants to go little, and decides to try to win this year by picking up Mike Bibby, who is probably a marginal keeper next year, and passes on younger players like Jonny Flynn, Steph Curry, or Tyreke Evans (who may last another two rounds). Can't really fault the Mike Bibby selection, though I'm not particularly fond of him in that dysfunctional ATL offense... and I can't really believe that Bibby is who Westy really wants on his roster, long-term.
The next pick is the 2nd boner by OD of the draft. Somehow, he decided to keep Rudy Fernandez, and let Jeff Green go. Huge mistake. Rudy would have probably been available in the 12th or 13th round. Green is an easy choice for the 9th, and normally would have fit in better for Westy, but Westy was looking for a guard, and not the best value available. Sparty is more than happy to pick him up, since scoring appears to be an issue for him, and Green will help there. The next pick is a killer for me. The guy I was hoping would fall to me, Tyrus Thomas, gets snatched up by Stephan. Not sure about his PT in the Bulls rotation, w/ Deng coming back, but he played great down the stretch last year. He can single-handedly keep you in contention in both STL and BLK.
Which actually leaves me in a bad situation, even if I had been present. Going into the draft, had I been picking first, I would have probably picked Redd since he qualified at SF, and helps me out w/ the 3PM. My next best option would have been Blake Griffin. There was virtually no chance that they fall to me at 11. I was hoping that Tyrus Thomas and J.R. Smith would be available. I did end up getting J.R. Smith w/ my 2nd pick (the first of the 10th round), but I also got stuck w/ the auto-draft special, Spencer Hawes. I think that the computer decided that the O.N. Thugs needed the best white player available.
Now, had I been there, I would have settled on J.R. Smith, and one of the following: Tyson Chandler, Trevor Ariza, Michael Beasley, Tyreke Evans, or Allen Iverson. Possibly Yao. Given my lack of quality at SF, there's a good chance that it would have been Ariza or Beasley. But I may have also just gone w/ Chandler again, figuring that he wouldn't screw me 2 years in a row. But instead, I end up with Spencer Hawes. I'm trying to talk myself into this guy. He was 11 and 7 last year, in about 29 minutes per game. He blocks over a shot a game. Did I mention that he was white? We'll see how long this guys lasts on the O.N. Thugs.
The 10th round opens up with my auto-draft bouncing back and getting me J.R. Smith. Stephan takes another guys I had highly rated, in Tyson Chandler. Sparty picks up former and eternal Thug, Ron Artest, who's an interesting pick, since his level of variance is so high in that Laker offense. If you told me that he'll score 7 points per game this year, I'd believe you. And if you told me that he'll score 15 points per game, I'd believe you. I have no clue what he'll be doing this year in LA.
Now, the 4th pick of the round is surprising to me. Westy goes Mike Conley. He was 10 and 4 last year, in 30 minutes per game. He'll chip in a 3PM and a STL per game, but not much else. This year he has AI in the mix, as well as a bunch of gunners (Mayo, Gay, and Zach Randolph). I am shocked that Westy goes with Conley here, over Jonny Flynn (his Minnesota guy) or Tyreke Evans (who's my guess at ROY this year, now that Blake went down), especially since his next pick isn't for another 15 picks. Particularly in a keeper draft, I believe in the idea of getting the guy you want, and again, I have a hard time believing that Conley is the guy that Westy really wanted.
The rest of the round is sort of uneventful. Phatsnapper and OD may be getting value with Luol Deng and Tayshaun. The Jabrones must believe that they're set with AST, and go big w/ Jermaine O'Neal, who may or may not be totally washed up.
The 11th round starts off with the Jabrones picking up Rip Hamilton, who has been shooting more 3's the last couple years, but still isn't a real 3PM guy. I'd say that he's a borderline starter for a top flight fantasy team, but completely doesn't fit into my style of roster building (I don't like guys that only score unless they drain 3's, which is why I was actually considering not keeping Monta Ellis). I'm not fond of either the Duhon or the Garcia pick, since they don't seem to have keeper potential. Love the Beasley pick by Robby. Jamal Crawford drives me nuts, and looks to be the 6th man in ATL... I'd probably pass. Then comes the interesting pick. Jonny Flynn (who Westy is high on), goes to Chowtime. Westy gest AI, instead. I'm willing to bet that at this point, Westy regrets the Conley pick. After that, Stuckey goes to Sparty. And for the 2nd time in 2 tries, I lose my guy to Stephan. Had I been at the draft, I probably would have been angry at this point. But I end up with Mike Miller.
I'm actually OK with Mike Miller at the end of the 11th round, since it appears that he'll be starting in Washington, and when Arenas is on the bench, there's a good chance that the offense gets facilitated through Miller. I'm guessing that his scoring stays in the low teens, but he'll keep making 3PM, and will put up okay AST and REB numbers.
Now, what I'm not thrilled about is getting Peja in the 12th. Unless he's healthy. If he's healthy, then he's 16 points, and 3 3PM a game. But my preference would have been Steph Curry. But instead, the auto-draft has decided that since we picked just about the blackest dude possible in J.R. Smith, I needed more whiteness on my team so much that we went with the 2 best white players available. Good times.
The good news is that Stephan finally has a pick that I'm not envious of. Chowtime adds another potential keeper. I still have a suspicion that Raymond Felton will finally emerge at a legit player, so I actually like this pick. Ronnie Brewer is an interesting player. His shooting has nowhere to go but up. Teams were leaving him wide open from 18 feet, which is unheard of in the NBA. He's really good at getting STL, but has been a total liability on offense. Mario Chalmers is a nice little pick up for the Bricks, since he'll help you be competitive in 3PM and STL, and has a good A/TO, though he doesn't handle the ball enough to really accumulate points or AST. I'm curious to see how Nate Robinson progresses for the Knicks. Any point guard in a Mike D'Antoni system has the chance to put up big numbers, but he's such a gunner that even with some stat inflation, he's only putting up 4 AST per game.
Tracy McGrady is a nice lottery ticket here in the 13th round by the Jabrones, especially when he comes back w/out Yao clogging up the lane for him. Maggette may be a nice value pick if he's healthy. I like Chowtime's pick again, as he'll have an option for rebounding, if he needs it. And Blair did show some nice touch in the low block. Nothing too exciting the rest of the round. I'm a little surprised that Westy didn't take Battier (who he defended quite a bit last year, when I suggested that Battier shouldn't have been on his roster). The main reason that I'm surprised is that I would have assumed that I was fated to draft Mike Dunleavy, as the auto-draft continued on it's "best white player available" strategy for me. I'm not exactly thrilled w/ Battier, but in the 13th, it could be worse. Plus, w/ T-Mac and Yao out for the time being, a few more points may fall his way. I'm much more excited about who the auto-draft sent my way in the last round.
I like Louis Williams, since he's got a lot of upside at one of those gunners on a bad team. He'll finally be starting in Philly, w/ Andre Miller out. And best of all, at least I didn't end up with Brendan Haywood, like Stephan did... or Darko, like Westy did... Chowtime gets the chance to add another keeper to his roster, if his team stays healthy enough so that he can carry Yao all year. I'm a bit surprised that the Bricks go with Brandon Rush, rather than getting their ASU guys, James Harden. The nickname stealer Yi has actually been putting up good numbers, so Robby may be getting a nice value here. And the last pick of the draft goes to the Jabrones: Anthony Morrow. Who the hell's Anthony Morrow? No, seriously. It took a while, but we finally got to a player that I had no idea what team they played for, where they went to college, what position they played. I realize that it's the Mr. Irrelevant pick, but still... who the hell's Anthony Morrow?
Okay. Now, I'm not going to get into the pre-season evaluations, yet, since this draft recap ran long. That post will come later this week, I think.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
"I am also considering doing something different than my usual plan of going out until 4am the night before the draft, rolling out of bed right when the draft is starting, and then picking guys whose names I can pronounce."
And sure enough, I kept my promise. This year, I stayed out too late, and just slept through the draft entirely. The best part was that right around 10:30, OD gives me a call to remind me about the draft. I groan, pick up the phone, see that it's OD, and decide, "Ugh. I'll just give him a call back later." Then a little later, I wake up at 11:25, and realize that the draft was long over. I'm awesome.
So, this draft recap will be a little different, since it will be more of a historical analysis, than an ethnography. But it should still be interesting. And it's interesting - my philosophy in fantasy sports, particularly keeper leagues, is that you get the guy that you want, unless there's absolute, clear value. This is me taking Deron Williams over D-Wade, because D-Will is my guy, and there's the greater threat of catastrophic injury for D-Wade. I mean, that's probably still a homer pick. But that's my mode of thinking, which makes me surprised at some of the picks that happened in this draft.
| Round 9 | ||
| 1 | Anthony Randolph | IamJabrone |
| 2 | Rasheed Wallace | Floor burns |
| 3 | Michael Redd | Phatsnapper |
| 4 | Charlie Villanueva | Love Timberw... |
| 5 | Ben Gordon | Milwaukee Br... |
| 6 | Emeka Okafor | SuckMyDribbl... |
| 7 | Blake Griffin | chowtime |
| 8 | Mike Bibby | Westy's Ball... |
| 9 | Jeff Green | Sparty Rules |
| 10 | Tyrus Thomas | Wakeup with ... |
| 11 | Spencer Hawes | O.N. Thugs |
Right off the bat, we see some interesting choices. First of all, the Jabrones go with hype, hope for the playing time, and take Anthony Randolph, who's supposed to be coming into his own this year. I'd have played it safer and either gone with Redd or Gordon, or just go with Blake Griffin right there (note we'll ignore the broken kneecap, since that hadn't happened, yet). You can't really fault this pick, since they weren't going to pick again for a while. You get the guy you want.
The next pick is just flat out mystifying. Rasheed is a 35 year old big, who will give you some OK stats, but will probably be option 3a or 3b in Boston this year. He probably only racks up about 28 minutes per game, and probably won't score 12 ppg. His rebounding numbers will go down, and his FG% will be bad since he hangs out on the perimeter and jacks 3's. But other than that, he's great. Given FloorBurns' relatively weak back-end keepers, the pick here should have been Redd or a younger player that is likely to emerge as a keeper. Certainly not Rasheed.
At this point, there are a series of teams that finished low, and need long-term help. I'm OK with Redd going #3 and Gordon going #5. I'm just confused by Charlie Villaneuva at #4. He's still young, but last season, playing for a bad Bucks team, he played 27 minutes per game. Career, he has played 26.5 minutes per game. He'll be in a rotation with a bunch of players in Detroit, and looks to be the 4th or 5th best offensive option on that team (after Gordon, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and maybe Rodney Stuckey). His hustle stats are OK. His shooting is subpar for a big. The odds of him being a keeper next year are about 40-60, against. This pick should have been a much better upside pick (Blake Griffin, Tyrus Thomas, Emeka Okafor, etc.) I'm not really a fan.
Then comes OD, with the 6th pick. And he rolls w/ his UConn guy, Okafor. If he's healthy, Okafor's looking like a 14 and 10 guy, with maybe 1.5 to 2 blocks. The problem is, he's always banged up, and he's actually regressed a bit from his best season in 06-07. If you were evaluating this pick in a bubble, you can definitely make a good case for it. But the problem is that Chowtime picks 7th. As I noted before, his team was ranked really high up top, but his last 2 keepers were marginal, at best. And he ends up with Blake Griffin. This is a very scary outcome, actually, and this would probably have not happened had I been awake, as I probably would have berated OD until he picked Griffin. Now Westy misses out on his chance to upgrade his 8th keeper from Luis Scola to Blake Griffin, who goes to Chowtime.
Westy wants to go little, and decides to try to win this year by picking up Mike Bibby, who is probably a marginal keeper next year, and passes on younger players like Jonny Flynn, Steph Curry, or Tyreke Evans (who may last another two rounds). Can't really fault the Mike Bibby selection, though I'm not particularly fond of him in that dysfunctional ATL offense... and I can't really believe that Bibby is who Westy really wants on his roster, long-term.
The next pick is the 2nd boner by OD of the draft. Somehow, he decided to keep Rudy Fernandez, and let Jeff Green go. Huge mistake. Rudy would have probably been available in the 12th or 13th round. Green is an easy choice for the 9th, and normally would have fit in better for Westy, but Westy was looking for a guard, and not the best value available. Sparty is more than happy to pick him up, since scoring appears to be an issue for him, and Green will help there. The next pick is a killer for me. The guy I was hoping would fall to me, Tyrus Thomas, gets snatched up by Stephan. Not sure about his PT in the Bulls rotation, w/ Deng coming back, but he played great down the stretch last year. He can single-handedly keep you in contention in both STL and BLK.
Which actually leaves me in a bad situation, even if I had been present. Going into the draft, had I been picking first, I would have probably picked Redd since he qualified at SF, and helps me out w/ the 3PM. My next best option would have been Blake Griffin. There was virtually no chance that they fall to me at 11. I was hoping that Tyrus Thomas and J.R. Smith would be available. I did end up getting J.R. Smith w/ my 2nd pick (the first of the 10th round), but I also got stuck w/ the auto-draft special, Spencer Hawes. I think that the computer decided that the O.N. Thugs needed the best white player available.
Now, had I been there, I would have settled on J.R. Smith, and one of the following: Tyson Chandler, Trevor Ariza, Michael Beasley, Tyreke Evans, or Allen Iverson. Possibly Yao. Given my lack of quality at SF, there's a good chance that it would have been Ariza or Beasley. But I may have also just gone w/ Chandler again, figuring that he wouldn't screw me 2 years in a row. But instead, I end up with Spencer Hawes. I'm trying to talk myself into this guy. He was 11 and 7 last year, in about 29 minutes per game. He blocks over a shot a game. Did I mention that he was white? We'll see how long this guys lasts on the O.N. Thugs.
| Round 10 | ||
| 1 | J.R. Smith | O.N. Thugs |
| 2 | Tyson Chandler | Wakeup with ... |
| 3 | Ron Artest | Sparty Rules |
| 4 | Mike Conley | Westy's Ball... |
| 5 | Brad Miller | chowtime |
| 6 | Tayshaun Prince | SuckMyDribbl... |
| 7 | Trevor Ariza | Milwaukee Br... |
| 8 | Jason Thompson | Love Timberw... |
| 9 | Luol Deng | Phatsnapper |
| 10 | Joakim Noah | Floor burns |
| 11 | Jermaine O'Neal | IamJabrone |
The 10th round opens up with my auto-draft bouncing back and getting me J.R. Smith. Stephan takes another guys I had highly rated, in Tyson Chandler. Sparty picks up former and eternal Thug, Ron Artest, who's an interesting pick, since his level of variance is so high in that Laker offense. If you told me that he'll score 7 points per game this year, I'd believe you. And if you told me that he'll score 15 points per game, I'd believe you. I have no clue what he'll be doing this year in LA.
Now, the 4th pick of the round is surprising to me. Westy goes Mike Conley. He was 10 and 4 last year, in 30 minutes per game. He'll chip in a 3PM and a STL per game, but not much else. This year he has AI in the mix, as well as a bunch of gunners (Mayo, Gay, and Zach Randolph). I am shocked that Westy goes with Conley here, over Jonny Flynn (his Minnesota guy) or Tyreke Evans (who's my guess at ROY this year, now that Blake went down), especially since his next pick isn't for another 15 picks. Particularly in a keeper draft, I believe in the idea of getting the guy you want, and again, I have a hard time believing that Conley is the guy that Westy really wanted.
The rest of the round is sort of uneventful. Phatsnapper and OD may be getting value with Luol Deng and Tayshaun. The Jabrones must believe that they're set with AST, and go big w/ Jermaine O'Neal, who may or may not be totally washed up.
| Round 11 | ||
| 1 | Richard Hamilton | IamJabrone |
| 2 | Chris Duhon | Floor burns |
| 3 | Francisco Garcia | Phatsnapper |
| 4 | Michael Beasley | Love Timberw... |
| 5 | Jamal Crawford | Milwaukee Br... |
| 6 | Ryan Gomes | SuckMyDribbl... |
| 7 | Jonny Flynn | chowtime |
| 8 | Allen Iverson | Westy's Ball... |
| 9 | Rodney Stuckey | Sparty Rules |
| 10 | Tyreke Evans | Wakeup with ... |
| 11 | Mike Miller | O.N. Thugs |
The 11th round starts off with the Jabrones picking up Rip Hamilton, who has been shooting more 3's the last couple years, but still isn't a real 3PM guy. I'd say that he's a borderline starter for a top flight fantasy team, but completely doesn't fit into my style of roster building (I don't like guys that only score unless they drain 3's, which is why I was actually considering not keeping Monta Ellis). I'm not fond of either the Duhon or the Garcia pick, since they don't seem to have keeper potential. Love the Beasley pick by Robby. Jamal Crawford drives me nuts, and looks to be the 6th man in ATL... I'd probably pass. Then comes the interesting pick. Jonny Flynn (who Westy is high on), goes to Chowtime. Westy gest AI, instead. I'm willing to bet that at this point, Westy regrets the Conley pick. After that, Stuckey goes to Sparty. And for the 2nd time in 2 tries, I lose my guy to Stephan. Had I been at the draft, I probably would have been angry at this point. But I end up with Mike Miller.
I'm actually OK with Mike Miller at the end of the 11th round, since it appears that he'll be starting in Washington, and when Arenas is on the bench, there's a good chance that the offense gets facilitated through Miller. I'm guessing that his scoring stays in the low teens, but he'll keep making 3PM, and will put up okay AST and REB numbers.
| Round 12 | ||
| 1 | Peja Stojakovic | O.N. Thugs |
| 2 | Al Thornton | Wakeup with ... |
| 3 | Chris Andersen | Sparty Rules |
| 4 | Marc Gasol | Westy's Ball... |
| 5 | Stephen Curry | chowtime |
| 6 | Raymond Felton | SuckMyDribbl... |
| 7 | Mario Chalmers | Milwaukee Br... |
| 8 | Ronnie Brewer | Love Timberw... |
| 9 | Courtney Lee | Phatsnapper |
| 10 | Nate Robinson | Floor burns |
| 11 | Ramon Sessions | IamJabrone |
Now, what I'm not thrilled about is getting Peja in the 12th. Unless he's healthy. If he's healthy, then he's 16 points, and 3 3PM a game. But my preference would have been Steph Curry. But instead, the auto-draft has decided that since we picked just about the blackest dude possible in J.R. Smith, I needed more whiteness on my team so much that we went with the 2 best white players available. Good times.
The good news is that Stephan finally has a pick that I'm not envious of. Chowtime adds another potential keeper. I still have a suspicion that Raymond Felton will finally emerge at a legit player, so I actually like this pick. Ronnie Brewer is an interesting player. His shooting has nowhere to go but up. Teams were leaving him wide open from 18 feet, which is unheard of in the NBA. He's really good at getting STL, but has been a total liability on offense. Mario Chalmers is a nice little pick up for the Bricks, since he'll help you be competitive in 3PM and STL, and has a good A/TO, though he doesn't handle the ball enough to really accumulate points or AST. I'm curious to see how Nate Robinson progresses for the Knicks. Any point guard in a Mike D'Antoni system has the chance to put up big numbers, but he's such a gunner that even with some stat inflation, he's only putting up 4 AST per game.
| Round 13 | ||
| 1 | Tracy McGrady | IamJabrone |
| 2 | Randy Foye | Floor burns |
| 3 | Corey Maggette | Phatsnapper |
| 4 | Larry Hughes | Love Timberw... |
| 5 | Aaron Brooks | Milwaukee Br... |
| 6 | D.J. Augustin | SuckMyDribbl... |
| 7 | DeJuan Blair | chowtime |
| 8 | Mike Dunleavy | Westy's Ball... |
| 9 | Samuel Dalembert | Sparty Rules |
| 10 | Matt Barnes | Wakeup with ... |
| 11 | Shane Battier | O.N. Thugs |
Tracy McGrady is a nice lottery ticket here in the 13th round by the Jabrones, especially when he comes back w/out Yao clogging up the lane for him. Maggette may be a nice value pick if he's healthy. I like Chowtime's pick again, as he'll have an option for rebounding, if he needs it. And Blair did show some nice touch in the low block. Nothing too exciting the rest of the round. I'm a little surprised that Westy didn't take Battier (who he defended quite a bit last year, when I suggested that Battier shouldn't have been on his roster). The main reason that I'm surprised is that I would have assumed that I was fated to draft Mike Dunleavy, as the auto-draft continued on it's "best white player available" strategy for me. I'm not exactly thrilled w/ Battier, but in the 13th, it could be worse. Plus, w/ T-Mac and Yao out for the time being, a few more points may fall his way. I'm much more excited about who the auto-draft sent my way in the last round.
| Round 14 | ||
| 1 | Louis Williams | O.N. Thugs |
| 2 | Brendan Haywood | Wakeup with ... |
| 3 | Kirk Hinrich | Sparty Rules |
| 4 | Darko Milicic | Westy's Ball... |
| 5 | Yao Ming | chowtime |
| 6 | Grant Hill | SuckMyDribbl... |
| 7 | Brandon Rush | Milwaukee Br... |
| 8 | Yi Jianlian | Love Timberw... |
| 9 | Zydrunas Ilgauskas | Phatsnapper |
| 10 | James Harden | Floor burns |
| 11 | Anthony Morrow | IamJabrone |
I like Louis Williams, since he's got a lot of upside at one of those gunners on a bad team. He'll finally be starting in Philly, w/ Andre Miller out. And best of all, at least I didn't end up with Brendan Haywood, like Stephan did... or Darko, like Westy did... Chowtime gets the chance to add another keeper to his roster, if his team stays healthy enough so that he can carry Yao all year. I'm a bit surprised that the Bricks go with Brandon Rush, rather than getting their ASU guys, James Harden. The nickname stealer Yi has actually been putting up good numbers, so Robby may be getting a nice value here. And the last pick of the draft goes to the Jabrones: Anthony Morrow. Who the hell's Anthony Morrow? No, seriously. It took a while, but we finally got to a player that I had no idea what team they played for, where they went to college, what position they played. I realize that it's the Mr. Irrelevant pick, but still... who the hell's Anthony Morrow?
Okay. Now, I'm not going to get into the pre-season evaluations, yet, since this draft recap ran long. That post will come later this week, I think.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Monday, October 19, 2009
UPL Basketball Keepers and Preliminary Analysis
The UPL Basketball draft is only days away. And keeper lists have been submitted for the first time in UPL history. Here's the damage. I've listed the keepers for each team, along with the Yahoo! pre-rank.
And just for a crude analysis, here are some averages for each team:
Here, I've listed each team's average pre-rank, based on the Yahoo! rankings of their 8 keepers, their top 7, their top 6, etc. Across the bottom, I've also listed the expected values.
It's not surprising that teams that finished towards the bottom last year would have keepers with lower pre-ranks (and higher values in this table), and that teams that finished toward the top would have higher pre-ranks. Of course, this gets a little out of whack, when owners take chances on players ranked in the 100's (like OD, who actually has two Trail Blazers on his keeper list, Rudy Fernandez and Greg Oden, who are ranked128 and 153, respectively)
Immediately some things should jump out at you. First of all, there are 3 teams with quality across their top 8: Westy, IAmJabrone, and the O.N. Thugs, each of whom have average pre-ranks in the 30's for their 8 keepers. Even more interesting is that Westy has the best average across this top 8 (heck, Paul Pierce was his 6th ranked player, and he was 28th overall), but finished tied for 5th place last year. This may explain Westy's comments about how he is still shocked that he didn't win last year. Also, in retrospect, the commish failed in his duties when he neglected to squash the Caron Butler for Tayshaun Prince trade.
If you believe in getting superstars, and then filling in the holes, then Chowtime should be a scary team this year. They have three out of the top 8 ranked players (Dirk, Granger, and Gasol). On the flip side, Floor Burns and Milwaukee Bricks would be in trouble with that criteria (and many other criteria), since their top players are ranked in the 30's. Interestingly, there are two other teams who lack players in the top 10. Shockingly, they are Westy and the O.N. Thugs. In both cases, they have multiple players in the top 20, and ton of players ranked in the top 50, but none of the top 10. I suppose that this just indicates that there are a many different ways to fill out a fantasy roster.
And yet another way to look at the quality of the teams is by the players that they didn't keep. The remaining top-100 players are:
Michael Redd (52) - IAmJabrone
Charlie Villanueva (61) - IAmJabrone
Ben Gordon (62) - O.N. Thugs
Mike Bibby (64) - Chowtime
Anthony Randolph (72) - IAmJabrone
Jeff Green (75) - SuckMyDribblingBalls
Rasheed Wallace (76) - Sparty Rules
Blake Griffin (79) - n/a
Spencer Hawes (80) - Phatsnapper
Emeka Okafor (82) - Milwaukee Bricks
J.R. Smith (83) - Milwaukee Bricks
Tyrus Thomas (85) - O.N. Thugs
Ron Artest (86) - O.N. Thugs
Mike Conley (91) - Love Timberwolves
Brad Miller (96) - Sparty Rules
Trevor Ariza (97) - n/a
Jason Thompson (100) - IAmJabrone
Interestingly, we see that the Milwaukee Bricks actually let go of two players in the 80's. But this isn't a questionable move, because they were actually their 9th and 10th rated players. Also, IAmJabrone and O.N. Thugs both had difficult choices in keeping lower-rated players (#60 Al Horford over #52 Michael Redd; #70 Russell Westbrook over #62 Ben Gordon). But perhaps the most interesting non-keeper is #64 Michael Bibby, who Chowtime dropped in lieu of not only #65 Tony Parker, but also #88 Chris Kaman, as well as #102 Thaddeus Young. Of course, this may also offer insight into why Westy didn't win last year, since none of the other players on his roster made this list. Really, his roster stopped at 7 players (#92 Luis Scola was his 8th keeper), and it appears that enough ground was made up by the O.N. Thugs and the European Sellouts (aka WakeUpWithTheKing) with the 3 remaining starting positions to overtake him.
All in all, this is a superficial look at the inaugural UPL keepers. And this superficial look suggests that we'll have a three team race for the top this year between IAmJabrone, Westy, and the O.N. Thugs. IAmJabrone probably has the inside track, given his luck in the UPL Lottery. To round off his team, the Jabrones will have 3 of the first 23 picks to fill in the rest of his starting 10. On the other hand Westy's 3rd pick will be 28th, and the Thugs' 3rd pick will be 33rd. But, as we all know, there's the actual season to be played, and many moves in free agency to be made. You can also make the case for top-heavy teams (Chowtime and SuckMyDribblingBalls) who will have a lot more certainty in their superstars' stats, and will know better how to build their supporting cast. Sparty is a regular on the UPL podium, though still w/out a UPL championship ring. And we haven't even mentioned the defending co-champ WakeUpWithTheKing!
In any case, if last year is any indicator, UPL Basketball will be a shootout. There were 7 very competitive teams last year, 6 of whom finished within 4 points of the title. Naturally, I'm hoping for a less exciting result, as I'm still predicting an O.N. Thugs sort of season. But that's the most predictable part of any preseason writeup I make, isn't it?
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
| IamJabrone | Floor burns | Phatsnapper | |||
| 3 | Dwyane Wade | 30 | Kevin Martin | 9 | Amar'e Stoudemire |
| 25 | Joe Johnson | 33 | Shawn Marion | 17 | Steve Nash |
| 31 | Gilbert Arenas | 50 | Stephen Jackson | 19 | Antawn Jamison |
| 34 | Carmelo Anthony | 63 | Mo Williams | 42 | Ray Allen |
| 38 | Josh Smith | 67 | Leandro Barbosa | 90 | Wilson Chandler |
| 48 | David Lee | 73 | Paul Millsap | 95 | Andrew Bogut |
| 51 | Derrick Rose | 78 | Lamar Odom | 99 | T.J. Ford |
| 60 | Al Horford | 93 | Richard Jefferson | 137 | Kenyon Martin |
| Love Timberwolves | Milwaukee Bricks | SuckMyDribblingBalls | |||
| 7 | Kevin Durant | 37 | Elton Brand | 6 | Kobe Bryant |
| 10 | Chris Bosh | 39 | Jason Richardson | 18 | Tim Duncan |
| 55 | Rajon Rondo | 41 | Baron Davis | 20 | Dwight Howard |
| 54 | Rudy Gay | 46 | Andris Biedrins | 23 | Jason Kidd |
| 66 | Andre Miller | 49 | Mehmet Okur | 71 | John Salmons |
| 77 | Zach Randolph | 69 | Al Harrington | 98 | Andrei Kirilenko |
| 84 | Josh Howard | 74 | Eric Gordon | 128 | Greg Oden |
| 87 | Kevin Love | 81 | Jason Terry | 153 | Rudy Fernandez |
| chowtime | Westy's Balltastics | Sparty Rules | |||
| 5 | Dirk Nowitzki | 12 | Kevin Garnett | 1 | Chris Paul |
| 6 | Danny Granger | 13 | Al Jefferson | 15 | Chauncey Billups |
| 8 | Pau Gasol | 16 | Caron Butler | 35 | Troy Murphy |
| 27 | Vince Carter | 22 | Andre Iguodala | 47 | Marcus Camby |
| 53 | Jameer Nelson | 24 | Devin Harris | 57 | Hedo Turkoglu |
| 65 | Tony Parker | 28 | Paul Pierce | 59 | Andrea Bargnani |
| 88 | Chris Kaman | 58 | Nene Hilario | 89 | Boris Diaw |
| 102 | Thaddeus Young | 92 | Luis Scola | 94 | Marvin Williams |
| Wakeup with the King | O.N. Thugs | ||||
| 2 | LeBron James | 11 | Brandon Roy | ||
| 21 | Jose Calderon | 14 | Deron Williams | ||
| 26 | Gerald Wallace | 29 | Brook Lopez | ||
| 36 | Rashard Lewis | 32 | David West | ||
| 43 | Manu Ginobili | 40 | LaMarcus Aldridge | ||
| 56 | O.J. Mayo | 44 | Carlos Boozer | ||
| 68 | Andrew Bynum | 45 | Monta Ellis | ||
| 108 | Shaquille O'Neal | 70 | Russell Westbrook | ||
And just for a crude analysis, here are some averages for each team:
| TEAM | AVG | TOP7 | TOP6 | TOP5 | TOP4 |
| IamJabrone | 36.3 | 32.9 | 29.8 | 26.2 | 23.3 |
| Floor burns | 60.9 | 56.3 | 52.7 | 48.6 | 44.0 |
| Phatsnapper | 63.5 | 53.0 | 45.3 | 35.4 | 21.8 |
| Love Timberwolves | 55.0 | 50.4 | 44.8 | 38.4 | 31.5 |
| Milwaukee Bricks | 54.5 | 50.7 | 46.8 | 42.4 | 40.8 |
| SuckMyDribblingBalls | 64.6 | 52.0 | 39.3 | 27.6 | 16.8 |
| chowtime | 44.3 | 36.0 | 27.3 | 19.8 | 11.5 |
| Westy's Balltastics | 33.1 | 24.7 | 19.2 | 17.4 | 15.8 |
| Sparty Rules | 49.6 | 43.3 | 35.7 | 31.0 | 24.5 |
| Wakeup with the King | 45.0 | 36.0 | 30.7 | 25.6 | 21.3 |
| O.N. Thugs | 35.6 | 30.7 | 28.3 | 25.2 | 21.5 |
| EXPECTED | 44.5 | 33.5 | 22.5 |
Here, I've listed each team's average pre-rank, based on the Yahoo! rankings of their 8 keepers, their top 7, their top 6, etc. Across the bottom, I've also listed the expected values.
It's not surprising that teams that finished towards the bottom last year would have keepers with lower pre-ranks (and higher values in this table), and that teams that finished toward the top would have higher pre-ranks. Of course, this gets a little out of whack, when owners take chances on players ranked in the 100's (like OD, who actually has two Trail Blazers on his keeper list, Rudy Fernandez and Greg Oden, who are ranked128 and 153, respectively)
Immediately some things should jump out at you. First of all, there are 3 teams with quality across their top 8: Westy, IAmJabrone, and the O.N. Thugs, each of whom have average pre-ranks in the 30's for their 8 keepers. Even more interesting is that Westy has the best average across this top 8 (heck, Paul Pierce was his 6th ranked player, and he was 28th overall), but finished tied for 5th place last year. This may explain Westy's comments about how he is still shocked that he didn't win last year. Also, in retrospect, the commish failed in his duties when he neglected to squash the Caron Butler for Tayshaun Prince trade.
If you believe in getting superstars, and then filling in the holes, then Chowtime should be a scary team this year. They have three out of the top 8 ranked players (Dirk, Granger, and Gasol). On the flip side, Floor Burns and Milwaukee Bricks would be in trouble with that criteria (and many other criteria), since their top players are ranked in the 30's. Interestingly, there are two other teams who lack players in the top 10. Shockingly, they are Westy and the O.N. Thugs. In both cases, they have multiple players in the top 20, and ton of players ranked in the top 50, but none of the top 10. I suppose that this just indicates that there are a many different ways to fill out a fantasy roster.
And yet another way to look at the quality of the teams is by the players that they didn't keep. The remaining top-100 players are:
Michael Redd (52) - IAmJabrone
Charlie Villanueva (61) - IAmJabrone
Ben Gordon (62) - O.N. Thugs
Mike Bibby (64) - Chowtime
Anthony Randolph (72) - IAmJabrone
Jeff Green (75) - SuckMyDribblingBalls
Rasheed Wallace (76) - Sparty Rules
Blake Griffin (79) - n/a
Spencer Hawes (80) - Phatsnapper
Emeka Okafor (82) - Milwaukee Bricks
J.R. Smith (83) - Milwaukee Bricks
Tyrus Thomas (85) - O.N. Thugs
Ron Artest (86) - O.N. Thugs
Mike Conley (91) - Love Timberwolves
Brad Miller (96) - Sparty Rules
Trevor Ariza (97) - n/a
Jason Thompson (100) - IAmJabrone
Interestingly, we see that the Milwaukee Bricks actually let go of two players in the 80's. But this isn't a questionable move, because they were actually their 9th and 10th rated players. Also, IAmJabrone and O.N. Thugs both had difficult choices in keeping lower-rated players (#60 Al Horford over #52 Michael Redd; #70 Russell Westbrook over #62 Ben Gordon). But perhaps the most interesting non-keeper is #64 Michael Bibby, who Chowtime dropped in lieu of not only #65 Tony Parker, but also #88 Chris Kaman, as well as #102 Thaddeus Young. Of course, this may also offer insight into why Westy didn't win last year, since none of the other players on his roster made this list. Really, his roster stopped at 7 players (#92 Luis Scola was his 8th keeper), and it appears that enough ground was made up by the O.N. Thugs and the European Sellouts (aka WakeUpWithTheKing) with the 3 remaining starting positions to overtake him.
All in all, this is a superficial look at the inaugural UPL keepers. And this superficial look suggests that we'll have a three team race for the top this year between IAmJabrone, Westy, and the O.N. Thugs. IAmJabrone probably has the inside track, given his luck in the UPL Lottery. To round off his team, the Jabrones will have 3 of the first 23 picks to fill in the rest of his starting 10. On the other hand Westy's 3rd pick will be 28th, and the Thugs' 3rd pick will be 33rd. But, as we all know, there's the actual season to be played, and many moves in free agency to be made. You can also make the case for top-heavy teams (Chowtime and SuckMyDribblingBalls) who will have a lot more certainty in their superstars' stats, and will know better how to build their supporting cast. Sparty is a regular on the UPL podium, though still w/out a UPL championship ring. And we haven't even mentioned the defending co-champ WakeUpWithTheKing!
In any case, if last year is any indicator, UPL Basketball will be a shootout. There were 7 very competitive teams last year, 6 of whom finished within 4 points of the title. Naturally, I'm hoping for a less exciting result, as I'm still predicting an O.N. Thugs sort of season. But that's the most predictable part of any preseason writeup I make, isn't it?
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Thursday, October 8, 2009
2009 UPL Baseball Post-Season Awards
It's the end of another UPL Baseball season, so with further ado:
All-UPL First Team:
C: Joe Mauer, Phatsnapper
1B: Albert Pujols, IAmJabrone
2B: Chase Utley, Westy's Sluggers
3B: Mark Reynolds, IAmJabrone
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Black Sox
OF: Ryan Braun, SuckMyKnuckleballs
OF: Carl Crawford, Cheeseheads
OF: Matt Kemp, Phatsnapper
UTIL: Ryan Howard, Cheeseheads
UTIL: Mark Teixeira, Phtasnapper
SP: Zack Greinke, Phatsnapper
SP: Tim Lincecum, O.N. Thugs
SP: Felix Hernandez, Phatsnapper
SP: Chris Carpenter, O.N. Thugs
SP: Roy Halladay, Hats for Bats
RP: Mariano Rivera, SuckMyKnuckleballs
RP: Joe Nathan, '90 Reds
RP: Heath Bell, Hats for Bats
All-UPL Second Team
C: tie, Victor Martinez, '90 Reds Pablo Sandoval, '90 Reds
1B: Prince Fielder, Black Sox
2B: Aaron Hill, IAmJabrone
3B: tie, Miguel Cabrera, Cheeseheads and Evan Longoria, JimmyDixLongballs
SS: tie, Derek Jeter, O.N. Thugs and Troy Tulowitzki, Cheeseheads
OF: Matt Holliday, Westy's Sluggers
OF: Jason Bay, SuckMyKnuckleballs
OF: Adam Lind, Cheeseheads
UTIL: Ryan Zimmerman, Black Sox
UTIL: Derek Lee, JimmyDixLongballs
SP: Javy Vazquez, '90 Reds
SP: Dan Haren, '90 Reds
SP: Adam Wainwright, Phatsnapper
SP: Matt Cain, Cheeseheads
SP: Justin Verlander, BlackSox
RP: Ryan Franklin, SuckMyKunckleballs
RP: Jonathan Broxton, IAmJabrone
RP: Jonathan Papelbon, Black Sox
All-UPL Team Killers
C: tie, Russell Martin, O.N. Thugs and Geovony Soto, Cheeseheads
1B: Chris Davis, IAmJabrone
2B: Alexei Ramirez, JimmyDixLongballs
3B: Garrett Atkins, free agent - drafted by Hats for Bats
SS: Jose Reyes, Hats for Bats
OF: Grady Sizemore, Muddy Mush Heads
OF: Josh Hamilton, Phatsnapper
OF: Alfonso Soriano, Cheeseheads
UTIL: Carlos Beltran, Phatsnapper
UTIL: Carlos Quentin, Black Sox (corrected, 10/15)
SP: Brandon Webb, Westy's Sluggers
SP: Cole Hamels, IAmJabrone
SP: Jake Peavy, O.N. Thugs
SP: Ervin Santana, Westy's Sluggers
SP: Francisco Liriano, IAmJabrone
RP: Brad Lidge, JimmyDixLongballs
RP: Kerry Wood, Benver Droncos
RP: Matt Capps, IAmJabrone
Team of the Year: '90 Reds
Manager of the year: Westy
UPL MVP - Ryan Howard, '90 Reds
UPL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez, Phatsnapper
UPL Fireman Award - Mariano Rivera, SuckMyKunckleballs
UPL Rookie Pitcher - Andrew Bailey, O.N. Thugs (apologies to J.A. Happ and Tommy Hanson)
UPL Rookie Hitter - Pablo Sandoval, '90 Reds
UPL Out of Nowhere Pitcher - Randy Wolf, Cheeseheads
UPL Out of Nowhere Hitter - tie, Aaron Hill, IAmJabrone, Ben Zobrist, Hats for Bats and Kendry Morales, JimmyDixLongballs
As usual, comment away.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
All-UPL First Team:
C: Joe Mauer, Phatsnapper
1B: Albert Pujols, IAmJabrone
2B: Chase Utley, Westy's Sluggers
3B: Mark Reynolds, IAmJabrone
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Black Sox
OF: Ryan Braun, SuckMyKnuckleballs
OF: Carl Crawford, Cheeseheads
OF: Matt Kemp, Phatsnapper
UTIL: Ryan Howard, Cheeseheads
UTIL: Mark Teixeira, Phtasnapper
SP: Zack Greinke, Phatsnapper
SP: Tim Lincecum, O.N. Thugs
SP: Felix Hernandez, Phatsnapper
SP: Chris Carpenter, O.N. Thugs
SP: Roy Halladay, Hats for Bats
RP: Mariano Rivera, SuckMyKnuckleballs
RP: Joe Nathan, '90 Reds
RP: Heath Bell, Hats for Bats
All-UPL Second Team
C: tie, Victor Martinez, '90 Reds Pablo Sandoval, '90 Reds
1B: Prince Fielder, Black Sox
2B: Aaron Hill, IAmJabrone
3B: tie, Miguel Cabrera, Cheeseheads and Evan Longoria, JimmyDixLongballs
SS: tie, Derek Jeter, O.N. Thugs and Troy Tulowitzki, Cheeseheads
OF: Matt Holliday, Westy's Sluggers
OF: Jason Bay, SuckMyKnuckleballs
OF: Adam Lind, Cheeseheads
UTIL: Ryan Zimmerman, Black Sox
UTIL: Derek Lee, JimmyDixLongballs
SP: Javy Vazquez, '90 Reds
SP: Dan Haren, '90 Reds
SP: Adam Wainwright, Phatsnapper
SP: Matt Cain, Cheeseheads
SP: Justin Verlander, BlackSox
RP: Ryan Franklin, SuckMyKunckleballs
RP: Jonathan Broxton, IAmJabrone
RP: Jonathan Papelbon, Black Sox
All-UPL Team Killers
C: tie, Russell Martin, O.N. Thugs and Geovony Soto, Cheeseheads
1B: Chris Davis, IAmJabrone
2B: Alexei Ramirez, JimmyDixLongballs
3B: Garrett Atkins, free agent - drafted by Hats for Bats
SS: Jose Reyes, Hats for Bats
OF: Grady Sizemore, Muddy Mush Heads
OF: Josh Hamilton, Phatsnapper
OF: Alfonso Soriano, Cheeseheads
UTIL: Carlos Beltran, Phatsnapper
UTIL: Carlos Quentin, Black Sox (corrected, 10/15)
SP: Brandon Webb, Westy's Sluggers
SP: Cole Hamels, IAmJabrone
SP: Jake Peavy, O.N. Thugs
SP: Ervin Santana, Westy's Sluggers
SP: Francisco Liriano, IAmJabrone
RP: Brad Lidge, JimmyDixLongballs
RP: Kerry Wood, Benver Droncos
RP: Matt Capps, IAmJabrone
Team of the Year: '90 Reds
Manager of the year: Westy
UPL MVP - Ryan Howard, '90 Reds
UPL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez, Phatsnapper
UPL Fireman Award - Mariano Rivera, SuckMyKunckleballs
UPL Rookie Pitcher - Andrew Bailey, O.N. Thugs (apologies to J.A. Happ and Tommy Hanson)
UPL Rookie Hitter - Pablo Sandoval, '90 Reds
UPL Out of Nowhere Pitcher - Randy Wolf, Cheeseheads
UPL Out of Nowhere Hitter - tie, Aaron Hill, IAmJabrone, Ben Zobrist, Hats for Bats and Kendry Morales, JimmyDixLongballs
As usual, comment away.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
