After the first cut of teams, there are about another 5 teams that are in the rest of the pack, led by last year's runner-up.
IamJabrone - 5th Place
Strong Moves: Strong draft, picking up young players who have performed (Santana, Posey, Bard), particularly at the tough-to-find C. Made a play for Andre Ethier who has been as advertised (though it cost Josh Johnson, who's been lights out). Has gotten above average production out of a less than ideal pitching staff, by finding some talent along the way (Cueto, Medlen, Simon)
Boner Moves: Who the hell's Buster Posey? Have also fed the O.N. Thugs Daniel Bard,a quality set-up man, and probable BoSox closer in 2012. Mystifying lack of moves by the front office, as guys coming off of 2009 career years have fallen back to earth (Reynolds, Hill). Has lost out on trade value, while holding on to extra 2B who aren't quite good enough to play at UTIL. Pinned SS hopes to Alcides Escobar, who has been bad, and hasn't changed course. Testing the theory that any offense with Albert Pujols will be competitive.
Future Outlook: Doesn't look like this team's got it for 2010, and it's hard to tell if they're rebuilding or if they're trying to compete. You don't get the impression that this roster is one that just needs a couple tweaks to win in 2011.
Mid-term Grade: C-. This team could have been a podium team, though asking for a championship may have been a bit much. But a reluctance to trade definitely has hurt the chances. Now, players like Aaron Hill and Ian Stewart are much less likely to get back enough value to matter this year. But the rebuilding seems to be somewhat muted. Stuck in-between is a tough place to be.
SuckmyKnuckleballs - 6th Place
Strong Moves: Has gotten the better end of the Gavin Floyd for Paul Konerko trade. Found potential SS of the future in Starlin Castro, who has performed reasonably so far. Excellent production out of Andy Pettite (2nd round draft pick), and has gotten good results out of other un-sexy veterans (Scott Rolen, Tim Hudson)
Boner Moves: Run into a couple tough seasons by a couple talented pitchers (Beckett, Burnett). Has held on to some under-performing vets that don't have much upside (Tejada, Cameron, Hoffman).
Future Outlook: If Beckett and Burnett get their heads on straight, and guys like Bay, Braun, and Matsui have big 2nd halves, this team could sneak onto the podium. But more likely, it's looking like a team that's headed for a finish between 4th and 8th.
Mid-term Grade: B-. This was a 5th place team last year, and has been in the same ball park this year. This suggests a pretty average grade.
'90 Reds - 7th Place
Strong Moves: No need to play Frankenstein at 2B, as McGehee has been solid. Has gotten enough production out of the Frankenstein at closer (Capps and Lindstrom). Taking a chance on Big Papi, who's looking like he's back to being a legit fantasy player. Getting enough production out of top set-up guys (Kuo, Storen, Gregerson) to get back into competition in pitching. Has found some young SP to perhaps rebuild staff (Travis Wood, Wade LeBlanc, Mat Latos).
Boner Moves: Believing that Bartlett's fluky 2009 would continue, and not having a backup plan. Using the 3rd overall draft pick on Octavio Dotel. Couldn't move any veteran SP who overachieved in 2009 (Javy Vasquez, Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson), and have been saddled with poor 2010 results (combined 19-25 with about a 4.60/1.35). No trades, despite the underperformance across the board?
Future Outlook: This is a team that's sort of in transition. There's some good young pieces (Gonzalez, Upton, Sandoval?). Some veterans in their primes (Ryan Howard, Victor Martinez), and some that you don't want to predict anything about (Manny, A-Ram, Papi).
Mid-term Grade: INC. This team has managed to pull itself up from the bottom of the standings to the middle of the standings. We'll see if this continues. A move into the top tier would make this year's grade an A, whereas staying in the middle of the pack makes it a C.
Benver Droncos - 8th Place
Strong Moves: Great trade in picking up Rasmus and Volquez for Upton. Has gotten a lot of production out of free agency (SP - Colby Lewis, Barry Zito, Trevor Cahill; Austin Jackson). Jon Rauch (4th round) has been helpful for SV.
Boner Moves: Cano for Weiters has been absolute disaster for 2010 chances, though this may balance out in the next few years. Jury is out on the Volquez for Neise trade. Dropped Jose Bautista way too early.
Future Outlook: Has been willing to make trades to get younger and give the team a shot in 2011 or 2012 - has turned Upton and Cano into Weiters, Rasmus, and Neise. Young A's arms (Cahill and Brett Anderson) could help anchor pitching staff, along with Ubaldo Jimenez, who's still only 26. Will need to sort out what they want to do with some vets (Jimmy Rollins comes to mind, but also Vlad, Kuroda, Zito, Victorino, and maybe even Morneau). Those pieces can probably fetch some solid prospects.
Mid-term Grade: B+. This was the last place team from 2009.
Black Sox - 9th Place
Strong Moves: Gotten all-star production out of Miguel Olivo and some SV from Kevin Gregg, both from free agency. Nice job moving quality for quality, getting Josh Johnson. Drafting Strasburg #2 was pretty much a sure thing, but still qualifies as a strong move.
Boner Moves: Not many moves made - the offense is above average, but could use one or two more pieces. Not so much of a boner move, but rather just taking some lumps with the young pitching, which has had ups and downs.
Future Outlook: Awfully good looking, young pitching staff (Johnson, Strasburg, Verlander, Romero, Billingsley), with a couple wild cards that could still pan out (Marcum, Joba, Kazmir, Matusz). This is a roster that's begging to be tinkered with in trade talks.
Mid-term Grade: B+. Last season's 8th place team has made a somewhat lateral move, but has stockpiled some serious arms, to complement the solid offense. Maybe a bit late to make a move for 2010, but the idea of being a podium in 2011 should entice some more moves.
Next time, we'll wrap things up by taking a look at the kids on the short bus.
-Chairman (O.N. Thugs)
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19 comments:
I think it is pretty interesting that the "Tier 1" teams and the "Tier 3" teams are the active traders (for the most part).
The moral of the story? Being an active trader is risky, but not being an active trader is a one-way ticket to the middle of the pack.
I'm reminded of one of Greg's pre-season columns on his fantasy strategy. He says he will only make a trade if it: A. Makes his team better; and B. Makes his trading partner's team worse. (forgive me if I am over-simplifying). That's definitely not something I can agree with -- gotta come to the table looking for some assets AND be willing to give up some assets to make it happen.
Hey, if you aren't going to take some risks, what's the point?
Funny, I've made two trades this year, and I tirelessly looked to trade Reynolds and Hill earlier in the year when their trade value was at it's peak, but I couldn't even get 50 cents on the dollar for them. Apparently, this league is too smart or too risk averse to take on guys the year after their career year.
Also funny is that Roland essentially grades my performance at a C- based on essentially dropping Buster Posey. It was a boner move for sure, but a.) I was holding 3 catchers and b.) He was struggling at the time. In hindsight, i would have dropped someone else, but there are other guys who have dropped players who have had great years this year too.
By the way, I'm still waiting on Roland's post re: how I managed to almost give away the championship in UPL basketball. Me thinks that Roland is just trying to get me to overthink things (considering he hasn't won baseball outright since '05).
C-Lauff - Your grade is basically based on your outcome - dropping from 2nd place to off the podium. Wait until I get to Westy's mid-season grade.
The Posey thing is just awesome because a) you're still playing Aaron Hill, a .650 OPS guy at UTIL, and b) I was the beneficiary.
But as far as the trading goes, you can't really count Granderson/Ibanez. That doesn't really address your team's issues, which are the low RBI total and your rate stats. Obviously, I don't know how hard you've tried to move guys like Reynolds or Hill, but the outcomes suggest that you've ignored part of the exchange rate.
April Aaron Hill = 2.5 July Aaron Hill, so even at 50 cents on the dollar, the April trade would have been a stronger one for you team (at least in 2010). Now, you're more or less stuck with them, and hoping that they bounce back. I'm guessing that we're too smart to pay full freight for the April Aaron Hill, but surely someone would have taken a shot at one of those guys at a 33% discount?
I mean, I was going to war with Aki Iwamura for a few weeks, followed by Skip Schumaker, at 2B. You could have easily gotten Thome or Glaus or one of my hitting rotation guys for any of your three 2B. Even if you've got 3 of the top 10 guys at 2B, unless you can play them at UTIL, you should looking for a trade.
Pauly - Totally agree - be willing to give quality for quality. If you trade w/ the intent of not improving the other team, then you trade scared, and more often than not, nothing gets done. And often, that's a recipe for getting yourself stuck in purgatory.
That's why I liked the Ethier for Johnson moves and the Prado for Gardner moves - both teams win with that sort of trade.
Roland, you have the benefit of retrospect. Did I think that Aaron Hill was going to be as good as last year? Far from it. Right now, he's WAY below even his career numbers, which was unexpected.
So, for me to trade him at a 33% discount, would be essentially giving him away for someone that was already available on FA. When stuck with a guy who had a career year, and not getting him for value that you can find on FA, you have to keep him. I kept him, and I'm losing out, but if he was even hitting his career numbers, we'd be having a different conversation right now.
This isn't hindsight at all. I wrote about your likely decrease in offense back in February (as well as Greg's likely regression), and commented to you about carrying 3 guys at 2B in March/April. You did a nice job finding talent at C (just about every one else in the league would love to have a Santana/Napoli combo at C - only Posey/Posada is in that neighborhood). But you neglected SS altogether, and never really addressed your low OBP. That's what has led to your slide into 5th/6th.
Typical Hill season: .330/.425, 17HR, 80R, 80RBI.
2009 Hill: .330/.499, 36HR, 103R, 108RBI.
2/3 of his 2009 value is his career value.
But take a step back. The key point here is that even if Hill was having a career year, the same commentary would be made about how you could have gotten more value out of Stewart/Uggla than what they were doing for your team. How much of Hill's value is tied to his 2B position? A lot. If you compare his numbers to UTIL? Not nearly as sexy. So there's value, but much of that is tied to being a 2B. I can see the value of carrying a 2nd strong player at a position, so that you're not shorting games, and giving yourself insurance. But you want them to be legit options at UTIL.
To have 3 of the top 15 options at 2B back in April, and to let it wither away w/out finding a starting piece for your squad should definitely be counted against your grade, since it's led to your slide off the podium.
How much better would your team's offense look had you moved Hill for an OF who was career .370/.480, and probably good for 27 HR, 105RBI? Then you could have angled Josh Johnson for help elsewhere (like SS).
Incomplete? Heheh. Love the plot twist.
I'm reminded of one of Greg's pre-season columns on his fantasy strategy. He says he will only make a trade if it: A. Makes his team better; and B. Makes his trading partner's team worse. (forgive me if I am over-simplifying).
Pauly, that is over-simplifying it. I never said that I target trades to make my trading partner's team worse.
When I'm considering a trade, I need to be convinced that it will likely give me better value than what I can find on the waiver wire AND it will likely strengthen my team's ability to compete against the field (either for this season - or if I'm selling - for next season). Granted, it's not a perfect science, and I don't have a chart that I refer to when considering trades. ;-)
I'm sure that I've missed a few good trade opportunities this season. Maybe I should have been more aggressive. But hindsight is 20/20. And besides, now that more of my players are actually producing, I have more trading pieces than at any time since Opening Day. And for any potential trade partners out there, I'm looking for starting pitching and stolen bases...
Roland, only you could trade Aaron Hill for a player with that kind of OF production. I probably sent 12-15 trades including Aaron Hill at the very beginning of the year and I couldn't get a player back in return who was better than the FA that were available. Then, Aaron Hill got hurt about a week into the season, and there went that opportunity.
I never saw an offer come my way - I will say that Josh Willingham (who is basically the .370/.480, 27HR, 105RBI guy that I had in mind) could have been had for Hill or even Dan Uggla (who was your #2 2B) back in April.
Dan Uggla was never my #2 2B in 2010. He was always my #1, given that I knew that Aaron Hill was not going to repeat his 2009 season.
In terms of Josh Willingham being a 27HR, 105RBI guy, he's never hit 27HRs in a year and he's never hit over 89 RBIs. His career average is about 23HRs and 70RBIs. It's easy to say that he has a legit shot at getting there at this point in the year, but that's after the first half is in the books. What would make you think he'd have a career year as a 31 year-old on the Nationals at the BEGINNING of the year?
Greg - I'll admit that I've never forgotten the "improve my team, weaken their team" column either, which has kept me away from even checking your team out for potential matches.
C-Lauff. Look at his games played, and his rate stats. You knew that he had the starting job locked up, and was no longer a platoon guy, and was going to be entrenched in the middle of that lineup.
His career numbers are .370/.480. His 160-game career average is 25.2 HR, and that includes 28 games in '04 and '05 where he was pinch hitting. R and RBI are a function of place in the batting order.
I was expecting somewhere between 22 and 35 HR from him this year, with 90 to 110 RBI. About the same high end as Hill, with much less variance. I could have been talked into taking on that variance at 2B (I wasn't exactly wed to Iwamura or Schumaker).
The value also differs according to the team. Obviously, Westy would have no use for another 2B (though his moves often mystify me). But a team like mine? Was an obvious fit, and as the subject of much back-channel discussion. I was monkeying around with offering Hardy to you early because I figured that you'd want insurance at SS, but you never countered with anything.
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on the Willingham front. I'm not as convinced as you are that he is 30HR guy, especially given his injury history and his late entry into the Major Leagues.
In terms of JJ Hardy, I knew that if I wanted JJ Hardy, all I had to do was wait a week and you'd drop him. Sure enough, you did because he's a steaming pile of monkey crap. He's worse than the steaming pile of monkey crap I have now. I drafted Alcides Escobar for the same reason that many people draft someone like a Michael Bourn - steals and runs - but it hasn't worked out this year. But at least he's been better than JJ Hardy.
C-Lauff - You don't have to buy into it, but my explanation for Willingham is pretty sound, given his career power and rate numbers.
And just FYI. Hardy's career numbers look an awfully lot like Aaron Hill's. Hardy's 6 months younger, and has a career .321/.423, with a 160-game average of 20HR, 75R, 70RBI.
Greg - I'll admit that I've never forgotten the "improve my team, weaken their team" column either
Well, if both you and Pauly remember it that way, then maybe I'm the one whose misremembering. Perhaps I worded something clumsily in that post.
In any case, while I'm possibly too conservative on the trading front, I'm definitely open to "quality for quality" trades.
By the way, I'm still waiting on Roland's post re: how I managed to almost give away the championship in UPL basketball.
Yeah, Roland, where's this post? ;-)
Greg-
I guess when you read the following, you over-simplify the way I did when you think back on it. You never said what I quoted you as saying directly; however I think we all know what you really meant:
In the Urbana Premier League (UPL) where I play fantasy baseball, I make relatively few trades with other managers. Here's why:
* Greater margins to improve my team exist on the waiver wire (I can more easily "rip off" the waiver wire than another manager)
* I want to be careful that any trade I make will fit into my team's overall system
* In general, I don't want to directly participate in making my opponents' teams better
Let me elaborate on that last point with an analogy. If you're on fire in the UPL, and I have a glass of water, and you're looking at me for help, then I'm probably just going to drink that glass of water.
sorry I fouled up the html the first try
Pauly, looking back on it, I can see why people might infer that I'd only accept a trade if I thought it would weaken my opponent. Especially with that photo of the burning house and the heartless caption I put beneath it. Heheh.
Keep in mind, with that analogy I'm the (admittedly ruthless) guy withholding water unless the price is right for me. But I'm not an arsonist who sets my opponent's house on fire via a trade that weakens them.
When I'm negotiating a deal with somebody, especially with people who know baseball in a league like the UPL, it would be a waste of my time to hope to weaken their team via trade.
Here's the other thing. As the season goes on, I'm more open to trades because all of the teams' needs become clearer. So my guess is that I'll get at least one done before the deadline.
Greg - no need to back off your stance. Do what you do, baby.
What's also fun if you and your buddies spray each other with fire extinguishers while this the fire is happening.
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