The Anatomy of a Blockbuster: A New (Cabr)Era

ACT I - SOME HISTORY

Trades involving truly big names are hard to come by in the UPL, where teams have historically preferred the status quo. The O.N. Thugs are generally not a huge player on the trade market, preferring to tinker in free agency. They made a big trade when they were sure they had a loaded offense early on, and traded for Pedro Martinez back in 2003, sending over Manny and another hitter (Robbie Alomar, maybe?) to OD. Even after the trade, the O.N. Thugs featured probably the best offense in the history of UPL baseball, winning 64 out of 66 possible points on offense (11 team league). They team featured Bonds, Pujols, and Delgado, and also had Reggie Sanders, Jose Guillen, and Preston Wilson hit over 30 HR (Wilson had 141 RBI that year). Add in speed from Carl Crawford, Scott Podsednik, Rafael Furcal, and a speculative pickup of Mark Teixeira, and you had a ridiculous offense. This team ended up hitting .391/.527 (the team put up a .918 OPS - yikes!), with 1031 R, 294 HR, 980 RBI, and 125 SB.

Over the last few years, the O.N. Thugs have not quite been able to replicate this offense (not even the 2004 O.N. Thugs, probably the best team in UPL Baseball history, though they were built on pitching first). It got to the point in 2009, where a failure on offense (ironically, led by Carlos Delgado's injuries - well, maybe not so ironic given his age) led to the lowest finish ever by the O.N. Thugs, 4th place. So something had to give. The O.N. Thugs had been fairly disciplined in their approach to the keeper era, working to acquire young, high ceiling talent, which is in stark contrast to the O.N. Thugs' traditional road to victory, which employed established veterans. They had also managed to hang on to their waiver priority, and managed to luck into Buster Posey, when he was dropped by IamJabrone, right at the start of his hot streak.

The Cheeseheads were a team that had been stuck in the middle of the pack throughout it's UPL history, and the keeper era was no exception. This team featured some very high-end talent, in the form of Miguel Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Carl Crawford. They also had some potentially solid parts in Geovany Soto and Adam Lind. And they had some veterans who were going to be kept for a few more years Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Pena, and Vernon Wells. Unfortunately, the pitching looked suspect - Matt Cain was the best of the bunch, and only Rafael Soriano was actually performing well at closer (though John Axford had established himself as the closer in MIL). Gavin Floyd, Clayton Richard, Ted Lilly, Ian Kennedy, Randy Wells, Anibal Sanchez, and Jason Vargas didn't strike you as the sort of guys that you wanted to build a franchise around - they were nice pieces to take a chance on, and hope for the best.

ACT II - REBUILDING

The O.N. Thugs were chatting with JimmyDix, about potential trade ideas, when JimmyDix noted that Cheeseheads were looking to rebuild. Immediately, the thought of Miggy being available in the UPL caught the imaginations of both the O.N. Thugs and JimmyDix. The O.N. Thugs had inquired about Carlos Pena earlier in the season, but talks never moved past an initial, random offer. But now, with rebuilding officially on the way, some thoughts started swirling. The major goal was to be able to make a move for a top tier player (either Miggy or Tulo), without sacrificing the ability to win in 2010. Unfortunately, right before the trade talks started up, Jake Peavy had sustained a season-ending injury, which left the O.N. Thugs with only Lincecum, Carpenter, Kershaw, and Cecil as starters, Vincente Padilla recently picked up, and with Volquez about the come off the DL. So, starting pitching really couldn't be moved.

At this point, Corey Hart was at the tail end of his HR binge, so the Thugs were looking to sell high. And the Thugs also had a fairly long list of keepable talent of varying quality and age that could have been moved (Russell Martin, Elvis Andrus, Dexter Fowler, Shin-Soo Choo, Daniel Bard, Aroldis Chapman, Joe Nathan) without really hurting the 2010 team's chances (Choo was on the DL at that point). Some initial offers involving Corey Hart as a major component failed (despite the Cheeseheads presumed affinity for all things Milwaukee). And a counter-offer was made on July 17. Miguel Cabrera for Buster Posey and Clayton Kershaw.

At this point, the basic price was set. Two high end, young players. And the O.N. Thugs were pretty sure that a deal could get done, so confident that they had sent out a message to JimmyDix on the night of July 17 indicating a likely press conference within the next 48 hours. But the problem of the O.N. Thugs' lack of SP still remained.

ACT III - LOOKING FOR PLAN B

Posey was gaining national recognition, and was putting up .410/.570 sort of production, which is ridiculous at C. But he was somewhat superfluous at C, with Jorge Posada still producing well. Of course the raw production of Cabrera made that sort of move palatable. So that part of the equation was OK. But Clayton Kershaw was a different story. His 2010 stats were awfuly good: 10-5, 2.96/1.22 with 138K in 130.2IP. But the key stat was "22." As in his age in 2010. But the dearth of SP for the Thugs made the other part of the equation too expensive. The Thugs decided that this couldn't happen, unless some SP could be acquired, or a different piece was involved.

At this point, Volquez had made his first start, and looked spectacular. So moving a starting pitcher became a possibility, but the Thugs front office remained firm on Kershaw, particularly if Posey was going to be involved. So there was some work to be done.

So, Brett Cecil was the piece that the Thugs tried to market. Cecil, for whatever reason, hadn't caught the imagination of a lot of fantasy folks, who prefer Ricky Romero as the sexy prospect in TOR. But Cecil was 1 year younger, was 8-5 in over 100IP in 2010, and had a very respectable 3.89/1.16 with 6.3 K/9. He also had a strikeout pedigree from the minors (228K in 228.1 IP) similar to Jon Lester's (446K in 483.2 IP).

So a counter-offer was made on July 18. Buster Posey, Brett Cecil, and Aroldis Chapman for Miggy. This was three pieces, two of which were producing at the major league level, and one a large lottery ticket. This trade was quickly rejected, and the O.N. Thugs quietly hit the pavement, looking for pitching help, that would have made losing Kershaw palatable. An inquiry about Roy Oswalt were made to the Whiffers , who were in last place and should have been looking to rebuild. Chapman and Bard were made available. But the Whiffers politely declined. An inquiry was made about Shawn Marcum, but the price was a bit on the high side. The JimmyDix announced that they were possibly moving Cliff Lee. Some talks started, with Bard, Cecil, Chapman, and Peavy being offered for Cliff Lee and B.J. Upton (who JimmyDix has been shopping). But that offer was rejected on 7/25. At this point, there had been no new communications from Cheeseheads. And without the ability to find SP to replace the production of Kershaw, the Thugs could not pull the trigger on the trade and still feel comfortable about their chances in 2010. It appeared that Miggy was not going to be an O.N. Thug.

ACT IV - RESOLUTION

At this point, the Miggy for Posey and Kershaw trade had been in play for 8 days. Trades are automatically canceled by Yahoo! after 10 days. The O.N. Thugs' front office made the decision that they weren't going to bid against themselves in this trade. A quick look across the UPL suggested that the only teams that had the pieces to really make a run at Miggy were Phatsnapper and Black Sox. But, it appeared that Phatsnapper was content with his offense , and neither Phatsnapper, nor Black Sox, seemed inclined to move their core, young pitching. JimmyDix had deemed Lester to be untouchable, and would have been selling his other young talent at a low price. Other teams teams like IamJabrone, Westy's Sluggers, or '90 Reds didn't have the depth of keepable, young talent to move.

At the same times, they were keeping an eye on 2011, and was pretty content with the direction of the team. Posey and Posada formed the best quality/depth at C in the UPL. Dunn, Jeter, Wright, Choo, and Markakis could be counted on for solid production. Andrus was the SS-in-waiting. And the core of the pitching staff was still Lincecum, Kershaw, Carpenter, Volquez, Soria, K-Rod, and Bailey. Being able to hold on to Nathan and Bard until mid-March would add certainty to the keeper decisions. And choosing from Cecil, Willingham, Hart, and Fowler as the 18th keeper wouldn't be a terrible option.

The Thugs were ready to move forward with this team, so they moved Russell Martin for Howie Kendrick, mainly with the intention of getting some value for Martin, and having Kendrick help make up some games at 2B, with a slight chance of being a keeper in 2011. The front office figured that they'd be able to create some offense through team management, and making up another 4 or 5 games at 2B would be good enough.

The Thugs were about the prepare a thank-you note for Cheeseheads, and officially decline the trade, when another trade offer showed up. Buster Posey, Aroldis Chapman, Daniel Bard, and Joe Nathan for Miggy and Joel Zumaya. Joel Zumaya was completely irrelevant in this trade. He was an injury prone set-up man, who was stuck behind Jose Valverde even when he was healthy. What required a little thought was the inclusion of Bard and Nathan, over Cecil.

Bard was already contributing this year (1.84/0.86 with 51K in 49IP), and pitched at a similar level in 2008. The rampant speculation amongst Red Sox folks (in particular Bill Simmons, which makes it folk wisdom amongst the masses) was that Papelbon was going to be moved at some point, since someone was going to sign him to a 4-year, $56 million sort of deal in free agency, and that Bard was going to take over at some point in 2011 or 2012 at the latest. The story with Joe Nathan was that he had Tommy John surgery back in April, and was out of 2010. His rehab had started, and he was projected to be ready for spring training. His value was in his contract. He was signed through 2011, with a club option for 2012. This meant that the Twins were going to have him as their closer, as long as he was healthy. For small market teams, money matters, and a guy making $11 million was going to get first dibs at a money position. Combined, these two looked to be valuable pieces, particularly in 2011. If either one of them came through, then someone like K-Rod could be shopped for a frontline player.

What tipped the deal was that none of the pieces, save Posey, would really change the championship calculus for the O.N. Thugs in 2010. Chapman's a 2011-12 lottery ticket. Nathan was on the DL all year, and is a 2011 piece. Bard was helping the rate stats, but similar production could be found. Obviously, losing Posey makes C a much more tenuous position for the O.N. Thugs. But the thought is that Miggy's numbers would more than make up for it in 2010. And the biggest factor for the O.N. Thugs' 2010 chances is that neither Kershaw nor Cecil were moved (which has been doubly important with Volquez being smacked around his last 2 starts). So, with that a new (Cabr)Era in O.N. Thugs history has started.

EPILOGUE?

The O.N. Thugs still have some speculative talent, to go with the established talent. Miggy, Wright, Dunn, and Choo appear to be the offensive cornerstones. Jeter and Posada have at least one more year of keepable value, and Andrus is the SS-in-waiting. Markakis is still a bit of a question mark, but will be adequate at the very least. Lincecum, Carpenter, Kershaw, Cecil, and Volquez anchor a strong rotation. Soria, K-Rod, and Bailey form a good bullpen. And the Thugs have two more spots to choose from Hart, Willingham, Fowler, Kendrick, Peavy, Porcello, Morrow, and Venters. This makes for a competitive keeper roster, particularly on the pitching side of things. This was very similar to how the O.N. Thugs entered 2010. With a major difference being the addition of Miguel Cabrera.

The Cheeseheads may still be rebuilding, but at the very least add more depth to their discussion. Posey, Tulo, Crawford, Soto, Soriano, Ike Davis, and Carlos Pena seem to be players that you have to keep. Probably Adam Lind, as well. With regard to pitching, Cain, Rafael Soriano, Axford, Chapman, Bard, and Nathan are guys that will be committed to, and Clayton Richard, Gavin Floyd are likely keepers, as well. After that, you will have two choices between guys like Vernon Wells, Raul Ibanez, Ian Kennedy, David Aardsma, Jason Vargas, Randy Wells, and Ted Lilly. The story of this trade for the Cheeseheads is that they will get to choose from a deeper crop of keepers with much higher ceilings for 2011 and beyond.

As for the future? That's still to be written. If this ends up with another O.N. Thugs Championship, then the trade's a resounding victory. When you're gunning for championships, you take your runs when you can without wrecking your future, your happy. And even if the future for the pieces you move end up being great, so long as your team is still great, you're still happy.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)