Sunday, March 28, 2010

UPL Baseball Draft : Ecclesiastes 3:1

It's interesting to see the different strategies that the various teams employed in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft. Obviously, with the start of the UPL keeper era, the draft takes on different meaning. First of all, the first round of the draft is really the 19th round... but that's a little misleading. In theory, the top prospects (like Heyward or Strasburg this year, who are probably gone by the 10th round if we were drafting fresh) who are available make the top of the draft much more valuable. And there are probably a handful of players who weren't top 18 on deeper teams who would have been 15th or 16th rounders. So there's some additional value there. The result is that there is a bit of a break point at the top of the draft, much like in football, where there's a handful of picks at the top who are worth a lot more, and then the next bunch of picks are worth roughly the same. So you get this interesting dynamic where trades matter, and swapping spots in a round could be a major issue.

But the thing that really makes this draft interesting is that different teams have very different goals. The teams at the top of the draft are probably looking to re-load, an probably should have a very forward looking approach. This is evidenced by Pauly's approach to the draft. On the other hand, teams looking to win, such as the '90 Reds, are looking for ways to round out their team. And folks like OD just go with the Best Red Sox Player Available strategy. And Westy posted on Facebook that his top 7 was: 1. Reimold, 2. Beltre, 3. Buchholz, 4. Loney, 5. Escobar, 6. Fowler, 7. Heyward. So this is evidence that some people don't use a strategy, so much as just guess blindly :-)

What makes it interesting is that these teams with very different goals are thrown into the same game, and some of the choices, which may be perfectly rational to one team, may be entirely nuts to another. In that sense, there's a time and a place for any strategy. And so long as you have a broader goal in mind, there's probably not a "wrong" move.

So here's how the O.N. Thugs' draft looked. You'll notice the lack of a 3rd round pick, and that I had lower than expected spots in the 4th and 8th. That was courtesy of my Kerry Wood trade, which we will know the results of in late May or June.

Round Pick (overall) Player
1 10 Aroldis Chapman
2 17 Travis Hafner
4 49 Troy Glaus
5 62 Josh Willingham
6 69 Skip Schumaker
7 88 Joe Nathan
8 101 George Sherrill

So what was the strategy? Well, the original plan was to go find some power, and to go old school... really old school. Not just in terms of older, players, but also the return to the O.N. Thugs' historical strategy of going with veterans. The idea is this. You build a base that will last for a few years, and then it's winning time. So this year, the plan was to find some undervalued hitters. Travis Hafner, Troy Glaus, Josh Willingham, and Adam LaRoche were high on the list. I also needed to pick up a 2B, but the pickings were slim. Martin Prado, Casey McGehee, Skip Schumaker, and Akinori Iwamora were the four that I was looking at. I didn't really have a preference for any of them, since I don't see Prado as a potential top 13 player (which is the magic number if we have future expansion), and probably not even a top 18. My plan was to just wait it out there. Finally, I had my eye on some of the less-heralded closers or potential closers (Capps, Dotel, Rauch, Perez, Madson, Sherrill, Bard) and a couple starters that I had on my roster at some point last season (Sheets, Latos, Marcum).

Now in terms of execution, drafting in the UPL has become a little less predictable than in the past. First of all, there are fewer auto-drafting teams (save for the O.N. Thugs when we sleep in), and the teams that are auto-drafting have generally pre-ranked players. And the other thing is that our preferences vary greatly from the Yahoo! pre-ranks. Part of it is our league format (6x6, 13 teams, 26-man rosters), and of course that we're a keeper league. So, players that would be "off the radar" in a public league may not be quite as "off the radar" as you may think. So whereas in the past, I'd often let the guy I really wanted slide a round, knowing that he'd still be there when I drafted again, I now tend to just grab the guy that I want now, and let things sort out afterward.

I had assumed that the top of the draft would go Heyward, Strasburg, Chapman, particularly since '90 Reds was, well, a Reds fan. I was ready to just pick Hafner, then get Glaus on the way back, and hope that Willingham would still be there in the 4th. So the draft starts off, and things go off like this:

Pick Player Team
1 Jason Heyward Hats for Bats
2 Stephen Strasburg Black Sox
3 Octavio Dotel '90 Reds
4 Kevin Correia Benver Droncos
5 Marlon Byrd TheJimmyDixLongballs
6 Nolan Reimold Muddy Mush Heads
7 Martín Prado Phatsnapper
8 Adrián Béltre Cheeseheads
9 Kevin Slowey SuckMyknucklballs
10 Aroldis Chapman O.N. Thugs
11 Clay Buchholz Westy's Sluggers
12 Alcides Escobar IamJabrone
13 Alberto Callaspo Milwaukee Whiffers

It starts off as I had figured with Heyward and Strasburg, but then before the draft started '90 Reds was joking (or so we thought) about picking Dotel with the 3rd pick... and I was thinking to myself that I hoped that he wasn't joking... which he wasn't.

Then Benver goes with a relatively safe pick in Correia, who was probably the highest pre-ranked player left at that point.

JimmyDix makes a strange pick with Marlon Byrd, especially given that he hates the Cubs, who's been OK the last few years in a platoon role in TEX (figure that a conservative projection is something like .350/.450, with about 17 HR).

Reimold's getting a lot of hype, but was a 26-year old rookie last year who put up alright numbers (.365/.466 with 15HR in about 400 plate appearances).

Phatsnapper takes Prado, which basically settles the question of me drafting for positional need.

Now Adrian Beltre is an interesting pick, to me. He's 31 this season, had one great season in 2004 (which looks awfully suspicious now), and has a career .325/.453, and probably projects out to 25 HR, 80 R, and 90 RBI over 162 games. You can make a case for his numbers going up with the change in scenery (which I'm not entirely sold on), but I don't know if I'd go down that path. And then Slowey gets picked in the spot in front of me.

Slowey's a 26-year old pitcher, with a career 4.39/1.28 with just under 7 K/9 (though he went 10-3).

Now with all of these players who were picked 3 through 9, I don't see the potential for a top 18 status. And frankly, I didn't see it with the players who I was targeting... so when Chapman falls into my lap at #10, I'm pretty happy. I had to do a double-take to make sure that it was actually the case. But sure enough. He was there. So, it takes the O.N. Thugs roughly 4 minutes to abandon the plan of getting some veteran power, and jumping on Chapman. Now, I certainly don't expect Chapman to be a major contributor for the O.N. Thugs this year (or even in the first part of 2011). But I get to have a free look at him, and will probably keep him on as a keeper, so that I'll really have a 2-year look at him as a potential cog in the machine. The expanded rosters make hanging on to these prospects a real possibility, which was precisely why we expanded to 26-man rosters.

So, my concern turned toward getting some potential power on the roster. The first order of business was to lock up Hafner with the 2nd round. After that, I had a bit of a wait on my hands. I was hoping that I could get either Glaus, Willingham, or LaRoche in the 4th. It turns out that all 3 were still available. I figured that Glaus would be last one picked by someone else, but he was the one that I thought had the biggest upside (career 162-game averages are .360/.500, 35HR, 96R, 101RBI), but was underpriced because of his age and his injury. So Glaus goes my way in the 4th. At that point, I was pretty happy because the odds were that Willingham or LaRoche would still be available when I picked in the 5th. And sure enough, when my turn comes back, both are available, so I go with Willingham, who I like quite a bit, and actually considered keeping in my top 18 (he's basically Brad Hawpe, only he plays in a pitcher's park and not Coors Field).

Now, at this point, I'm pondering my options. The pitchers that I had at the top of my list considered were basically gone. I still didn't have a 2B, and we were down to Schumaker and Iwamura at that point. So, I had to figure out whether I wanted to go after LaRoche and hope that one of my 2B would still be there next time I was picking. Now, I was somewhat lucky because I was going to have 2 picks before C-Lauff would pick again. I had joked about maybe just not playing a 2B, and C-Lauff may have messed with me by picking up extra 2B with his roster space (I did this to him a couple years ago in football, after his QB went down, I picked up the next 2 highest rated free agent QB's just to mess with him). But I also had '90 Reds messing around with his "Frankenstein" strategy for RP and 2B, where he was just drafting random players in the hopes of cutting off body parts and sewing them back together to make a reasonable player. So I was a bit worried that he may have just gone with Schumaker. It turns out that I probably panicked a bit, when I picked Schumaker in the 6th, rather than LaRoche, since Iwamura didn't get drafted at all. Oh well. Relatively small price to pay.

What was interesting was that as I was taking my time on this pick, I noticed that Joe Nathan was available. This was problematic. Jeff had actually wanted Nathan as one of his 2nd wave expansion picks, but I had messed it up. So, I was hoping that Nathan would fall to me, so I could grab him and offer him back to Jeff for the player that I had accidentally placed on his team. I didn't really want Nathan, but figured that it was the right thing to do. We'll see if Jeff wants him or not. Now what's funny is that since then, I've had some inquiries about Nathan. The plan is to just stash him on the DL and see how his rehab looks next spring. But I suppose that a trade wouldn't be a terrible option.

My last pick ended up being George Sherrill. This was a total guess. But, he was on my radar because he played really well for me last year, though his value plummeted after he got traded to LAD to be the set-up man. But, there's always the chance that he could be traded off to MIN or somewhere else where they need a closer.

Now, as you look at my list of picks, I think that it makes sense for my team, which looks to be good with pitching, but needed some bats to put me over the top. I don't have the luxury of waiting for prospects like LaPorta, Gamel, etc. Hafner, Glaus, and Willingham are going to be batting 4 or 5 for their teams. Typical numbers from that spot in the batting order project out to at least 90RBI, and they're are all pretty high OPS guys, so that should bode well, if they get playing time.

Of course, these players, save Chapman, probably don't make a lot of sense for a team that is looking to rebuild, like Hats for Bats, Benver Droncos, JimmyDix, etc. So that adds an interesting wrinkle. You're likely drafting against the teams that have the same goals as you, but even then, the specific needs are probably different enough so that you aren't really competing for the same players. Even with me and '90 Reds needing 2B, our drafts were probably like ships passing in the night, with the possible exception of Casey McGehee, who I had on my radar - even the closers were gone before I would started thinking about them.

So when you take a step back and see these wildly different takes on a draft, you really have to put it back into context and realize that "optimal" choices are based on a lot of assumption. I think that they key assumptions are whether or not your team is in contention or rebuilding, and how many of the keeper slots you have filled up. If you've only got like 12 firm keepers, then you can take more chances on players who may be keeper material. But if your team runs deep, and you're looking to win? Keeper status probably isn't your concern, unless something falls into your lap, like Chapman did in my case. In all honesty, most of the players that Pauly listed on his top 30 weren't even on my radar, simply because I'm needing stats now. For example, had my team been a great hitting, so-so pitching team, a player like Andy Pettite, who Pauly would absolutely never draft (and rightfully so) would absolutely be on my radar, and probably relatively high on my radar.

Now what's really interesting is when you see some teams that you'd figure to be looking to win, instead draft like they're rebuilding. As I look through the drafts, I'm a bit surprised at how much youth Westy and C-Lauff took on. That either means that they really think that their top 18 is golden, or they're looking to rebuild. Either way, I don't think that's an optimal way to go, if they're trying to win now. Obviously, Greg spent a lot of time filling holes, looking to win now. On the other hand, Rupert's draft (which I believe was auto-drafted) tells me that he either is trying to add veterans to win now, or that he just didn't pre-rank players and got stuck w/ the computer's picks. OD appears to be happy to continue his strategy of picking Red Sox players, along with a couple vets along the way.

On the flip side, some teams that were definitely in rebuilding mode, didn't really continue that path in the draft. JimmyDix is a prime example, though his team is quickly moving into contender territory, with his acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez and (soon) BJ Upton. So maybe he's looking to get into the top 4 this year. But the Milwaukee Whiffers' draft didn't really do much to help him rebuild. Nor did the Cheeseheads' draft. But teams like Benver Droncos, Hats for Bats, and the Black Sox seem to have helped along their rebuilding processes in this draft. And in a vacuum, I'd like the Mush Heads' draft, though I'm not sure how good of a draft it was for a rebuilding team.

As for the O.N. Thugs? We're always convinced that we're going to win, even when we're in 10th place at the all-star break :-) But I think that between Hafner, Glaus, and Willingham, I'll get 2 good performances, which will go a long way into putting my offense back in the top half of the league. Though to be honest, much like last season, Wright/Markakis are going to be the major factors. If both are good, then I've got the inside track. If only one is good, then I'll need to get creative. And if neither is good, then it will be really, really hard to get back into the winner's circle.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

24 comments:

clauff said...

Wait, Roland, you were awake during the draft?!?! :-)

So, just to clear up any misconceptions about my draft strategy...I'm in a weird position where I'm not sure I can win it this year based on some holes that can't be addressed in one draft, but could be on the podium for years to come if I set my team up well for next year and beyond.

I knew that I needed help at SS, C and RP. The top SS available was arguably Alcides Escobar, who will help with steals and runs, but not much of anything else. He's young, but he was also better than anyone else. Catcher was interesting because my top rated catcher that is still in the league was either Carlos Ruiz or John Baker. Given that no one else really needed catchers, I figured either one of those guys would be available in the last round. So, that left me with relief pitching to address with picks 2-7. Going into the draft, I figured that Capps and Lindstrom were placeholders at best given their history and I didn't want to invest in guys that were only going to be closers for a few months with terrible stats, so I invested in guys who were either temporary closers who may be the long-term plan at closer (Chris Perez and Ryan Madson) or quality set-up guys who are an injury or trade away from being the long-term closer (Bard). I also expect to be active on the waiver wire to find one of the few guys who may grow into the closer role during the season. I got 3 guys that I'm high on, so I feel that I addressed that position well. That left me 3 other picks to find value. I could have gone after Hafner, Willingham or LaRoche, but we all know their ceilings. I targeted Snider because he's had quite a few AB's in the league for a prospect and I think he has 30-35HR potential in his career and 25HR potential for this year. So, he has a similar ceiling to a Hafner, and he has the benefit of being 7-8 years younger.

The other two picks were about setting me up at catcher for years to come. There usually isn't an opportunity to draft two catching prospects who are projected to be future all-stars and immediate contributors. In fact, I don't think it's a long shot that both of them will outperform all of the other catchers that were available to me who will start the year as a starter. Santana, in particular, is someone I'm very excited about and depending on when he's called up, has the potential to hit 15HRs, 60 RBIs, .360OBP and 50 runs. Looks good to me.

Chairman said...

C-Lauff. I was barely awake.

I don't know Aclides Escobar from from Pablo Escobar. Pretty much every pick, I'm thinking to myself, "Who the hell's ***insert Jabrone Draft Pick here***"

I do like the Bard pick, since you can probably trade him to OD at some point. But here's the thing. If/when you find yourself in 6th place or whatever, are you really going to hang on to all of those guys who aren't helping you now?

Westy said...

I absolutely had a quantitative strategy, Roland. I'm surprised you'd think otherwise. Let's just say spreadsheets were involved. Whether that's a good thing or not, we'll see.

The biggest hole in my lineup frankly is 3B. I was hoping Beltre would slip to me, but when that didn't happen, I had to kind of readjust. I basically just decided to go with what I felt was the best talent on the board (in general rankings were for this year's anticipated stats, with a slight weighting for keeper considerations) for the first few rounds.

That said, I did miscalculate in anticipating how quickly mediocre closers would go off the board (thanks a lot, Greg). So I need to decide if I can swing a trade or two for a closer, or attempt to compete by punting that category. We shall see.

clauff said...

Westy, I actually agree with you. Besides your last two picks, I think your draft was very solid. Maybe it's because I owned three of those guys last year, but I expect Clay Buchholz to be solid for a long time, De La Rosa to be a great source of K's (and potentially wins), Fowler to be a good source of runs and steals and Chase Headley, if he can figure out PetCo, to be solid as well.

Chairman said...

C-Lauff - To be blunt, you can totally defend each of Westy's picks, in a vacuum. But especially in even rounds, when you're picking and then sitting for like 20 picks, you probably shouldn't just go with the flow, unless you're strictly doing a "best player available" sort of strategy.

Westy - I guess that I'm having a hard time understanding your resistance toward RP in the draft. Once you see other teams moving closers pre-draft (Valverde and Wood), and you see Dotel go off the board early, you have to figure that the RP will start to move.

I think that my overall point is that "best player (or best prospect) available" is for teams that are building, unless there's just a huge gap that justifies things (which is my rationale for Chapman). More targeted selections are for teams looking to round off rosters. I was surprised to see podium finishers looking at building.

Westy said...

I guess in response, I didn't think the strategies were totally opposed. I felt that another SP was a need I had, and I felt like I got the best one available in my first pick. Then a positional player backup at a position I already had (since no 3B's worth taking were available). Then when it came back to me, I couldn't resist Fowler as he was extremely high value on my board even if I didn't need another OF. I should have then gone RP, but if I recall, I thought I'd still have a choice at one of them in my next turn. That didn't turn out to be the case, so there was my mistake. That said, I was happy with who I got, even if I am still without RP.

Greg McConnell said...

Wow. Very fun to read everyone's strategies. Now if I could have only known this info beforehand!

Going into the draft, I thought that in the best case scenario I'd be able to get Dotel, Chris Perez, and maybe Franklin Morales. That's all I was hoping for in terms of closer help. So yeah, I was very surprised that I was also able to snatch up both Capps and Lindstrom in addition to Dotel. It's hard for me to know who amongst Dotel/Capps/Lindstrom will do the best this year, but at this point I'd be happy if just one of them works out.

BTW, Roland, I think I've mentioned it before, but I try not to let my real life rooting interests affect my fantasy baseball decisions. Back in 2001 I drafted Barry Larkin as a homer pick, but I eventually dropped him. That was the last time I went that route.

Greg McConnell said...

Wait, there was one other time: Cory Vance.

Chairman said...

Westy - they don't have to be incompatible strategies, if you've got an optimal computer program :-) When you don't, then you end up trying to pawn off your 26th round pick for a closer.

Greg - I don't know if anyone would have seriously thought that Chapman at #3 overall a "homer pick." But regardless, I appreciate your contribution toward my lottery ticket.

Pauly said...

I also thought Greg was kidding about Dotel and he was going to take Chapman.

Westy said...

So Roland, now that the draft is over, and after a few of the trades go down, will you be doing a bit more of a season preview? Obviously you already reviewed each team's keepers, but I'd like to see you on record predicting the league's finish...

Besides the fact that you'll pick yourself to win it (despite finishing 4th last year), I'd be curious who you pick to finish 2nd.

Chairman said...

Westy - I don't know if I'll do a full-blown preview, though there will probably be come commentary on the trades.

As far as your team goes, I was pretty high on your team until this last trade :-) I hope that you've got a buyer lined up for Kinsler, otherwise, that's just a confusing move. For just about every other team, that trade makes a lot of sense. But you're probably the one team that doesn't get that much better with Kinsler (who may not be a huge upgrade at UTIL from, say, McClouth).

On the bright side, we'll all get to see some ridiculous trade offers for Howie Kendrick soon :-)

Westy said...

Let's just say I'm hoping to make another move.

Chairman said...

Westy - at least I gave you some credit for not just simply dumping your best starter for another UTIL hitter. The question is how much will Greg give you for Kinsler? I bet that he'd give you Dotel AND Lindstrom if you asked real nice.

Chairman said...

Actually, the one thing that I will predict is that there will be at least 1 or 2 players dropped by teams in the first 2 weeks of the season that will play roles on the top 4 finishers in the UPL this year.

Someone will panic, and drop their best prospect at closer, and have him be picked up by a contending team right before Papelbon gets hurt :-)

Greg McConnell said...

Ian Kinsler? Nah, I'm hoping for Chase Utley. ;-)

Also, I'm liking the Frankenstein analogy. Just like when the Bulls had their 3-headed monster of Luc Longley, Bill Wennington, and Will Perdue unsuccessfully try Hack-A-Shaq during the '95 playoffs, I'll see how far the 3-headed monster of Dotel/Capps/Lindstrom gets me...

CJ said...

To be fair, I tried to pry a pitcher off Greg first..

Chairman said...

Greg. I'll let you know that I'm rooting for your strategy to end up with a bunch of SV so that you feel the need play keep playing them, but have to carry a 5.25 ERA, and about a 1.45 WHIP :-)

We'll dub the "Lauffer Conundrum" in honor of C-Lauff's track record of trotting some chump closer with a 5 ERA game after game, and hating himself for it.

CJ said...

Um - roland - I've got Bobby Jenks and Brad Lidge. My ERA is going to be as pretty as a girl on the 3rd day of mardi gras.

clauff said...

Hey Roland,

I resemble that remark...I guess I don't hate myself TOO much for it, because I do it every year.

Greg McConnell said...

Roland, given that Dotel is the closer for the Pirates, Capps for the Nats, and Lindstrom for the Astros, I don't think those guys will be getting into any games anyway. They'll probably just sit on the bench week after week hoping by some miracle that their team can take a lead into the 9th.

Chairman said...

Greg - that's the worst, actually. Imagine this...

Your closer's sitting there in the bullpen. His team's down 7-1 in the 8th inning. 5th straight game w/out a save situation. All of a sudden, the phone rings, and the pitching coach's voice can be heard talking into the ear of the bullpen coach.

"Get 'em loosened up. We need to get him some work to stay sharp."

So your guy wakes up from his nap, finishes his room temperature beer, and then takes off his warm-up jacket to get loosened up. The arm feels fine. He's just in a bit of a daze. But it'll be OK.

He trots out there for the top of the 9th. Gives up a little blooper over the 2B's head. Then the ump squeezes him and he gives up a walk. Then he misses location on a first pitch fastball, and it gets tagged over the left field seats. 0 IP, 3 ER. And it's not over yet. The bullpen hasn't had a chance to get anyone up until now. So the next batter comes in. Another walk. Next batter drives one into the outfield for a single. First and third, still no outs. Mercifully, the next batter comes in there swinging, and K's on 3 pitches. And the batter after that hits a shallow fly ball that's caught, so there are 2 outs. The manager decides that it'll be good to let his closer work his way to the last out of the inning. The closer is starting to feel his stuff, and challenges the next batter. The count works to 2-2, so the slider's coming... only this one doesn't slide, but instead gets slammed down the left field line, for the 2nd HR of the inning. The manager just shrugs. This game was over in the 5th inning, so it doesn't really matter. He trots out to the mound, and signals for a lefty to come in to finish off the inning. So your guy's line ends up 0.2 IP, 1 K, 2 BB, 4 H, 5 ER, no decision. And then you realize that this is the 3rd time this has happened this year...

This my friend, is what we call the "Kevin Gregg Experience," which is really an updated, white version of the "Armando Benitez Experience." I'm hoping that we can rename it the " '90 Reds Experience" after this season :-)

Pauly said...

Chairman, I know Greg would like to hear this...the situation you just described is literally the MATT LINDSTROM experience -- except half the time he actually does it in save situations.

Guy had 2 outs in a one-run win over the Phillies and proceeded to give up 8 ER without getting an out. That game alone set me back in ERA and WHIP so far that I was in last place for a long time.

One point though -- in general, closers in non-save situations suck horribly about 75% of the time.

Matt Lindstrom (or shit storm, to those who love him) sucks horribly pretty much all the time.

Greg McConnell said...

I'll have a zero tolerance policy for beer in the bullpen... unless the guy can still get saves while buzzed.