Wednesday, March 10, 2010

UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 5

The 5th pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

Hats for Bats
History: UPL Newcomer, who was hyped by eventual 2010 champion, '90 Reds. However, 2009 proved to be a learning experience.

Tendencies: N/A. Apparently is a Marlins fan?

2009 Result: 10th place

Likely Keepers:

Offense Locks: A-Rod, Jose Reyes, Adrian Gonzalez, Brandon Phillips,

Pitching Locks: Roy Halladay, Heath Bell, Jose Valverde

Probable Keepers: Ryan Ludwick, Juan Rivera, Corey Hart, Vernon Wells, Ben Zobrist, Erik Bedard, Derek Lowe, Jeff Niemann, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: A-Rod and Adrian Gonzalez provide a nice foundation on offense. Jose Reyes and Brandon Phillips have the potential to be a potent 2B/SS combo at shallow positions.

Offensive Question Marks: As good as Phillips' counting stats are, his OBP is maddeningly low, and his SLG isn't particularly great. Ludwick regressed dramatically off of his career year in 2008. Corey Hart has been mediocre since his breakout 2007. Juan Rivera has been good in limited playing time in past, and will get the first shot at being in the OF everyday. Vernon Wells has shown glimpses of greatness in his career, but has also been a fantasy team killer in the past. This collection of OF'ers needs to come through. Ben Zobrist has a breakout 2009 and will be called upon to repeat in 2010.

Pitching Strengths: Roy Halladay is good. Two potentially good closers in Bell and Valverde.

Pitching Question Marks: Lack of certainty at SP is difficult. Scherzer and Bedard are high K guys with good WHIP. Health is the key for Bedard. Scherzer will have to adjust to the AL, though he will have a pitcher's park to do it in. Porcello has a high ceiling, but hasn't put it together, yet. Niemann has a lower ceiling, and looked solid in 2009. Both players will be called upon this year. Ideally, Derek Lowe becomes trade bait after a good start, since he'll win enough for you to play him, but his K rate and rate stats probably hurt you in the long run.

2010 Outlook: The offense looks to be average, but could become good if Reyes bounces back and Phillis gets some help in Reds real-life lineup. The pitching is going a work in progress, and success for this team will depend on youngsters Scherzer, Porcello, and Niemann. This team is in a funny spot where it's not quite obviously rebuilding, but contending this year probably doesn't happen unless everything clicks. This makes it harder to be definitive about a strategy. Assuming that Hats for Bats' luck is about average, we'll place them as a 7th place team, right in the middle of the road.

This is a very important outcome, since this means the JimmyDix has won the 3rd lottery spot. This means that last year's last place team, Benver Droncos has fallen out of the top 3 and will be selecting 4th.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

3 comments:

Pauly said...

told you my luck sucks.

Just as an FYI, I dont plan on keeping Bedard or Vernon Wells or Corey Hart.

Im sure I'll put up a post on my blog about this a little later today.

Chairman said...

I overlooked Molina.

Denard Span would make sense.

You're not keeping Podsednik, are you? :-)

Pauly said...

Span is a definite, top-12 keeper. Wells is old and killed me last year. Bedard probably wont pitch until July and Hart I picked up the last week of the season just to give me some options for the 18th keeper.

Right now, Molina is being kept, but not protected in the top 12.

Do we need to have our 12 protected players in soon?