Creation and the Expanding Universe, Part I

Our first ever UPL Expansion draft is upon us, and it's looking like there is going to be some talent available for our expansion teams. So if I were playing creator, how would I try to bring a franchise out of the cosmic mess known as the expansion draft?

I'm glad you asked.

In this 2-part series, we'll break down what's available, and of what's available, what's worth thinking about. First up, the top 6 teams from 2009. Then the bottom 6 teams, along with any possible changes. I've added ages for players under 30.

'90 Reds

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Homer Bailey (24)	8	5	0	86	4.53	1.47
Edwin Jackson (27)	13	9	0	161	3.62	1.26
Joe Nathan	2	2	47	89	2.1	0.93
Wandy Rodriguez	14	12	0	193	3.02	1.24
Javier Vazquez	15	10	0	238	2.87	1.03
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Billy Butler (24)	78	21	93	1	0.362	0.492
Chris Coghlan (25)	84	9	47	8	0.390	0.460
Chipper Jones	80	18	71	4	0.388	0.430

Interestingly, the best offensive option, Billy Butler is also the youngest option. Joe Nathan is worth thinking about stashing away for the year, but the problem is that it may be a 2-year commitment. Javy Vazquez is probably the best pitcher, though he's old (34). Wandy Rodriguez is only 31. My recommendation? Take the young talent, even if he is on KC: Billy Butler, 1B.

IAmJabrone

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Clay Buchholz (26)	7	4	0	68	4.21	1.38
Matt Capps (27)	4	8	27	46	5.80	1.66
Jorge De La Rosa (29)	16	9	0	193	4.38	1.38
Ryan Dempster	11	9	0	172	3.65	1.30
Francisco Liriano (27)	5	13	0	122	5.80	1.55
Billy Wagner	1	1	0	26	1.72	1.02
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Johnny Damon	107	24	82	12	0.365	0.489
Chris Davis (24)	48	21	59	0	0.284	0.442
Jason Kubel (28)	73	28	103	1	0.369	0.539
Mike Napoli (29)	60	20	56	3	0.350	0.492
Ian Stewart (25)	74	25	70	7	0.322	0.464

Here, you see a couple options. Kubel gives you a nice balance of production and age, though he may lose some AB this year with the acquistion of Thome. Stewart qualifies at 2B and 3B, and gives you decent counting numbers and a reasonable SLG (though his OBP is bad). Liriano is a few years removed from his status as the next Johan Santana, though he is following his former mentor's injury path. He's worth considering in later position, but probably not in the top 12. A better option would be to take a shot at Billy Wagner, who could have strong trade value if he gets off to a good start. De la Rosa seems to have found his stride, and will have a good team behind him. My recommendation? Take the shot at Billy Wagner, since he could have huge trade value by June.

Westy's Sluggers

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Scott Baker (29)	15	9	0	162	4.37	1.19
Matt Garza (26)	8	12	0	189	3.95	1.26
Jair Jurrjens (24)	14	10	0	152	2.60	1.21
Leo Núñez (27)	4	6	26	60	4.06	1.25
Carlos Zambrano	9	7	0	152	3.77	1.38
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Russell Branyan	64	31	76	2	0.347	0.520
Rajai Davis	65	3	48	41	0.360	0.423
Nate McLouth (29)	86	20	70	19	0.352	0.436

Here, the cream of the crop appears to be Jurrjens, who put up a very good season on all fronts, save for his K numbers, and is still only 24. Nate McLouth is the other option - anytime you get a chance to get a 20-20 guy who will chip in solid R and RBI w/out killing your OBP or SLG (though they weren't great last yera), you have to consider it. The name out there is Big Z. My recommendation? Don't overthink this. Young arms w/ big league success are gold. Take Jair Jurrjens.

O.N. Thugs

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Rich Harden (28)	9	9	0	171	4.09	1.34
Ben Sheets	-	-	-	-	-	-
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Elvis Andrus (22)	72	6	40	33	0.329	0.373
Julio Borbón (24)	30	4	20	19	0.376	0.414
Asdrubal Cabrera (24)	81	6	68	17	0.361	0.438
Alex Gordon (26)	28	6	22	5	0.324	0.378
Todd Helton	79	15	86	0	0.416	0.489
Russell Martin (27)	63	7	53	11	0.352	0.329
Jorge Posada	55	22	81	1	0.363	0.522
Josh Willingham	70	24	61	4	0.367	0.496

All sorts of goodies here. Harden has been intriguing with his stuff for a few years now, and was great in 2008. Of course, he's always injury prone. Another question mark is Ben Sheets, who's back throwing in the 90's, but is coming off of major surgery last year. There's all sorts of young talent available, between Andrus, Borbon, Cabrera, and Alex Gordon, and even Russell Martin's only 27. Posada's probably the best player, though he's old. My recommendation? Again, relatively young, proven arms are gold in this format. I've been intrigued by Harden all these years, and it would be like I was admitting I was wrong if I didn't go Harden... but the smart play here is probably to go with the most reliable of the youngsters, Asdrubal Cabrera, who's slated to be in the 2 hole between Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo in that Indians lineup.

SuckMyKnuckleballs

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Gavin Floyd (27)	11	11	0	163	4.06	1.23
Tim Hudson	2	1	0	30	3.61	1.46
Roy Oswalt	8	6	0	138	4.12	1.24
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Mark DeRosa	78	23	78	3	0.319	0.433
Hideki Matsui	62	28	90	0	0.367	0.509
Magglio Ordóñez	54	9	50	3	0.376	0.428
Scott Rolen	76	11	67	5	0.368	0.455
Kurt Suzuki (27)	74	15	88	8	0.313	0.421

This is sort of interesting. While the O.N. Thugs' roster was full of young talent, this roster is not. Roy Oswalt is probably the best option for pitching. Hideki Matsui may have a couple years left in the tank and will be hitting 5th or 6th for the Halos. Similar story for Rolen, who will be in the middle of a decent Reds lineup. Magglio Ordonez may be worth thinking about, if you think that he can regain his 2008 form, or better. Best bet here? Take Oswalt, who's still only 33, and probably has another 4-5 strong years left.

Cheeseheads

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Ted Lilly	12	9	0	151	3.10	1.06
Joel Piñeiro	15	12	0	105	3.49	1.14
Randy Wells (28)	12	10	0	104	3.05	1.28
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Clint Barmes	69	23	76	12	0.294	0.440
Paul Konerko	75	28	88	1	0.353	0.489
Adam LaRoche	78	25	83	2	0.355	0.488
David Ortiz	77	28	99	0	0.332	0.462
Alfonso Soriano	64	20	55	9	0.303	0.423

Here, we see more older vets. The three that pop out should be Ted Lilly, David Ortiz, and Alfonso Soriano. Lilly was his usual solid self, though he lost some time to injury, only loggin 177 IP. Pineiro finally put it together last year, and put up a really good season in STL, and now moves to ANA where he'll be the 3rd starter. He's a couple years younger than Lilly, and worth thinking about. Big Papi was off last year, and still managed 28 HR and 99 RBI, though his rate numbers were sort of painful, and he's struggled so far this spring. Plus, you should be able to trade him to OD at some point... Soriano was just off all of 2009, though he's probably more likely to bounce back that Papi, who appears to be done. I think that the play here is to go with Ted Lilly, and realize that you can get someone like Konerko/LaRoche/Ortiz with the next round of expansion, if you want.

So, it looks like this so far:

SP - Jurrjens, Lilly, Oswalt
RP - Wagner
1B - Butler
2B/SS - Cabrera

I'd be tempted to just go pitching heavy, and go after Harden, who fits the profile for expansion: young, high ceiling. I'd guess that he's a higher ceiling than Cabrera. This strategy sets you up for later, because you always seem to be able to trade pitching. And moreover, you can probably dig up some 20-HR power at 1B fairly easily. However, Butler's just too young to pass up. I'd also consider going with Ian Stewart over Billy Wagner, but Stewart's low rate stats are a little scary, and the potential return for a top closer is big enough for me to pass take a shot at.

Next time, we'll come back and see how the rest of the teams look... here's a hint. There's a Yahoo! top 25 pre-rank player available. And he's only 28.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)