Friday, April 2, 2010

The Jimmy Dix Restructuring

I'll freely admit that the last few weeks have been a bit of a surprise to the Jimmy Dix Longballs. My team finished in the last third of the standings for 2009, and despite having quite a bit of infield flexibility, we lacked several critical factors. So, as David Bowie once said, "Ch-ch-ch-changes!" Lets start our little journey through the makeover of a team with a look at the top 19, the Protected Keepers and the Unprotected Keepers from last year's team:

Protected Keepers
C - Brian McCann
1B - Derrick Lee
2B - Ian Kinsler
3B - Evan Longoria
3B/SS - Gordon Beckham
OF - Nelson Cruz
OF/1B - Kendry Morales
SP - Cliff Lee
SP - John Danks
SP - Jered Weaver
RP - Bobby Jenks
RP - Brad Lidge

Unprotected Keepers
SS - Alexei Ramierez
OF - Colby Rasmus
OF -Nick Swisher
OF - Michael Cuddyer
SP - James Shields
SP - Mark Buehrle
SP - Edinson Volquez

All in all, its a team of mediocrity. A couple of elite players in Kinsler, Longoria and (when he was with the Phillies) Cliff Lee. A couple of shaky closers. Some pop, some speed, but not too much of either. Well, here's what my Protected Keepers (if we expanded again next year, everyone would keep 13) would look like this time around....

Protected Keeper
C- Brian McCann
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
1B - Derrick Lee
2B - Gordon Beckham
3B - Evan Longoria
OF -BJ Upton
OF- Nelson Cruz
SP - Jon Lester
SP - Cliff Lee
SP - John Danks
RP - Jose Valverde
RP - Brad Lidge
RP- Bobby Jenks

Just a little bit different, right? Well, lets walk through how that happened. Thanks to the wonders of statistics (and the Jimmy Dix Longballers' lackluster 2009) I had the first pick in the draft. Shortly before said draft, I got an email from Pauly offering me a trade for the first overall pick. After some negotiations, we came to this agreement:

Trade #1

Jimmy Dix gave up:
1B -Kendry Morales
1st Round pick (1st overall of expansion - i.e. Jason Heyward)
5th Round pick

Hats for Bats gave up:
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
RP - Jose Valverde
1st Round Pick (5th overall)

Now, if I hadn't let my overwhelming distrust of young fireballers take over for my common sense (i.e. the Mark Prior effect) I'd have called this trade a steal because I would've taken Aroldis Chapman when he fell down to the 5th pick. But instead I grabbed Marlon Byrd, fully expecting to make a trade or two and needing a backup outfielder with some pop to fill a void. It was stupid, because as common sense points out there's still plenty of those guys available on waivers now. As it is, I got a slugger in Adrian Gonzalez and a closer in Jose Valverde filling two big needs. I wasn't so concerned giving up Kendry Morales - 1B is a good hitter's spot - but I'll admit that I'm slightly concerned because when scouts and analysts talk about Heyward they talk about Junior Griffey. The idea of trading that kind of a player away is, to be blunt, terrifying. Then an opportunity with the Benver Droncos came up....

Trade #2

Jimmy Dix gave up:
OF - Colby Rasmus
SP - Edinson Volquez

Benver Droncos gave up:
BJ Upton

BJ Upton had a bad 2009. Speculation for the reasoning ranges from injuries to a coming down to earth from previous seasons. Justin Upton is sexier to most fantasy experts. BJ Upton, despite having a bad year, was on avg with the Jimmy Dix's runs, avg. and obp. He also had 10 more steals than anyone on the roster. If Upton returns to his career average numbers, this trade'll be a win for me. If Rasmus lives up to his potential, and Volquez bounces back from his injury strong I might miss them. Either way, I traded two Unprotected Keepers for one guy who's a Protected Keeper so I'll cross my fingers and hope for the best.

Trade #3

Jimmy Dix gave up:
2B - Ian Kinsler

Westy's Sluggers gave up:
SP - Jon Lester

Of all the trades I did this offseason, this is the one that may cost me the most. Ian Kinsler is a "five tool player", a 30 Homer 30 Steal 90+ Runs 90+ RBI guy. He's also injury prone. Jon Lester is a guy who'll pitch over 200 innings with over 200 strikeouts and decent stats and a team that should net wins behind him. Lester immediately became the ace of my staff. Kinsler... Kinsler will probably end up on Greg's staff, pending negotiations. Westy has a lot of negotiating power right now, as he just aquired 2B Robinson Cano as trade bait as well. What he doesn't have, at the moment, is elite starting pitching. Time will tell what I've enabled Westy to do here. I dont think I would've made this last trade if I'd picked up Chapman. Which means that my lack of preparation in the draft put off contending by one more year. But hey, its a long season, and I'm always willing to listen to a trade offer.

Now here's to hoping that Lidge and Jenks bounce back. I'd better stock up on beer and antacids.

8 comments:

clauff said...

CJ, I actually like what you've done this year by way of trades (the draft was a bit of a blip). You've essentially added a couple of stronger keepers (who are still young) to your team without giving up a legit, proven stud (though Heyward may turn into that in a few years).

I'm interested in trading with you, but I'm not sure I have what you're looking for, and I'm not sure you're willing to give up what I need (that's what she said).

Let's talk and see if we can work something out.

clauff said...

Ok, so I forgot about Ian Kinsler, but I still think that you improved your team.

CJ said...

C-Lauff, zip me an email or trade and we'll see what can be done - there are more options than you think. Like I said, I've been pretty busy on the trade front

Greg McConnell said...

CJ, I agree that you've made some good moves to improve your team this offseason. When you showed the before and after with your protected keepers, it clearly drove home the point.

I'm actually not that big of an Ian Kinsler fan. He has a low OBP and a history of injuries. So he's a little bit like Alfonso Soriano in his inconsistency.

Truth be told, I'm big on Gordon Beckham. I would have made you an offer for him, but I'm pretty sure he's in your team's long-term plans.

For now I'm going to see how McGehee starts out the season. I don't have high hopes for him, but I'd hate to pay a high price for a 2B only to find out McGehee would have sufficed.

CJ said...

Greg - truth be told the Gordon Beckham keeper is a pure Man-Crush (to borrow C-Lauff's term)... If the sox traded him I'd listen. But, as it stands, Bacon (we call him Bacon b/c Ozzie Guillen can't pronounce "beckham") stays..

I agree with that philosophy though. I really do wish I would've taken Chapman, as I can wait a while for strikeouts and Kinsler would've been a nice utility guy. But yeah, after owning him for 2 years and seeing him go to the 15 day DL something like 3 or 4 times, I'm wary of his injury history.

Westy said...

I'm actually not that big of an Ian Kinsler fan.
Uh-oh...

Also, to clarify, my other 2Bs are Utley and Kendrick.

Chairman said...

I'm generally OK with the the Kinsler trade for JimmyDix. Adding a top-end arm in return for someone who you don't trust is a fine move (though I'd be surprised if Lester's K rate stays so ridiculously high).

I was definitely confused by it for Westy, since playing Kinsler at UTIL is such a waste. However, latest moves makes it better for Westy. I would suggest that Westy takes on more uncertainty in these moves, but has the higher upside (particularly with regard to Sizemore). Total breakdown:

Westy Moves:
Lester
Holliday
Ibanez
Headley

Westy Gets:
Kinsler
Young
Sizemore

CJ said...

Update - Edinson Volquez has been suspended for 50 games for a failed drug test, pushing back his contribution to the UPL stats a little further.