Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Endgame Houdini

I'll come out and say it. If C-Lauff pulls out the upset in hoops, I will tip my cap to him. We haven't really gotten into an endgame situation, mainly for selfish reasons. I don't want to tip my hand or give out free advice in a potentially uncertain situation (though I don't know how uncertain it is, really).


FG% FT% 3PM PTS OREB REB AST STL BLK A/TO TOT
O.N. Thugs 8 6.5 4 10 10 9 11 7.5 6 10 82
IamJabrone 9 5 3 11 9 6 10 9 8 9 79
SuckMyDribblingBalls 10 1 6 5 8 8 9 10 11 6.5 74.5
Westy's Balltastics 5.5 3 5 7 6 11 8 11 9 8 73.5
Sparty Rules 2 9 10 3 7 7 5 6 10 11 70
Love Timberwolves 7 10 1 9 11 10 3 5 2 1 59
chowtime 4 11 7 8 5 5 6 2 5 3 56
Wakeup with the King 5.5 2 8 6 3 4 7 7.5 7 5 55
Floor burns 3 6.5 9 2 4 3 4 4 4 6.5 46
IamJabberjaw 1 8 11 4 1 1 1 3 1 2 33
Phatsnapper 11 4 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 4 32

As of right now, he's a few points back. It's not so much the current endgame situation that I'm commenting on, but rather the constraints that his roster structure have imposed on him (with average stats over the last month)...


FG% FT% 3PM PTS OREB REB AST STL BLK A/TO
Jrue Holiday 0.522 0.778 1.4 14.3 1.3 4.5 5.9 2.1 0.4 1.745
Louis Williams 0.378 0.900 0.3 9.6 0.4 2.9 3.8 0.8 0.0 1.789
Derrick Rose 0.474 0.783 0.7 19.1 0.8 4.1 7.1 0.4 0.5 3.737
Carmelo Anthony 0.459 0.844 0.5 27.5 2.9 7.8 3.0 1.0 0.5 1.216
Josh Smith 0.457 0.554 0.0 15.4 2.9 8.7 4.8 1.6 2.0 1.718
Joe Johnson 0.435 0.784 1.5 20.0 1.0 4.5 6.0 0.9 0.0 3.667
David Lee 0.515 0.855 0.0 20.8 3.7 13.1 4.3 1.1 0.7 2.000
Anthony Tolliver 0.450 0.827 1.5 13.6 2.2 8.0 2.1 1.1 0.8 1.667
Al Horford 0.591 0.795 0.0 15.5 3.4 10.9 2.3 0.8 0.9 1.280
Dwyane Wade 0.510 0.779 0.8 27.5 1.5 6.0 6.3 2.1 1.3 1.872
Darren Collison 0.482 0.818 0.9 15.4 0.5 2.8 8.2 1.1 0.1 2.510
Jermaine O'Neal 0.537 0.796 0.0 17.2 1.2 5.9 1.1 0.6 1.7 0.667
Anthony Randolph - - - - - - - - - -
Gilbert Arenas - - - - - - - - - -

You'll note a couple roster peculiarities. The first is that he's carrying a gunner. And I don't mean a guy that doesn't pass. Well, sort of. I guess that Arenas doesn't really pass. But he's a gunner for so many more reasons. It's tough to hang on to Agent Zero for the season, and still be able to make roster moves. So, basically what the Jabrones are saying is that Arenas is definitely going to kept next year. Similarly, hanging on to Anthony Randolph, despite his injury (and his spotty playing time before that) indicates that he'll be kept, as well. We've expanded rosters in our UPL keeper leagues so that we can accommodate situations like Arenas or Al Jefferson last year for Westy, so that you still have options. However, when you start carrying additional players that aren't playing, then your options tighten up - in a sense, you are handcuffed.

You'll notice that you see some interesting names on the Jabrone roster. The most interesting name is probably Darren Collison. Before Chris Paul returned, Collison was going nuts, going 16 and 9 on a regular basis. And as a result, the Jabrones made a bit of a run on AST and A/TO. However, since CP3's return, Collison has come back down to earth, averaging 11 and 4 in the last week, and has become only a borderline play. So, this means that to keep up the pressure on AST and A/TO, the Jabrones have to look elsewhere. Enter Jrue Holliday, who has been playing well. However in the 3 games that he's played for the Jabrones, plus the 5 (maybe 6) games that he will probably play, he will probably come up 50 to 55 AST short of what Collison was putting up, and likely at a noticeably lower A/TO ratio. But give the Jabrones credit, they're doing what they can to make up the loss. They got some mileage out of Randy Foye right after Agent Zero's incident. And that was going well until the Wiz had their fire sale, and that was when Collison entered the picture. That combination helped the Jabrones crawl back into the AST and A/TO race w/ the Thugs. But the return of CP3 has slowed things down. Theyve tried Toney Douglas, Jarrett Jack, and even Will Bynum. They've even gone after O.N. Thugs castoff Louis Williams (who's been ripped off in Philly this year).

Let's just say that the 2 point swing in AST and the 2 point swing in A/TO would be huge int he standings (that alone would reverse the standings). I don't know if they can pull off the miracle.

Part of it may be the numbers. But the Thugs do have something to say about this situation. The Thugs' AST total has been driven in large part by D-Will and Westbrook, who combine for just under 19 AST/g, which is a huge total, considering an average of 4.3 AST/g, across 820 games, would take that category. Throughout the first half of the season, the Thugs had padded their lead in AST by playing Louis Williams (until he broke his jaw) and Brandon Jennings (who was traded). Since then, they've been somewhat hanging on to the lead in AST, and their hold on 2nd place in A/TO. The Jabrones had been clawing back since then, so the Thugs looked for a little help in a very unlikely place.

Enter Mike Conley. This fella was much maligned by the O.N. Thugs when he was on Westy's roster. Westy's defense was that many advanced stats indicated that Conley was a good player. The O.N. Thugs' retort was to inquire about whether these stats included winning in fantasy. After Westy dropped Conley, he made the comment that advanced stats don't win fantasy. And after Conley was unemployed in the UPL, save for some random stints. Then on March 17, the Thugs swallowed their pride, and picked up Mike Conley, after noticing that he had been playing well in March. In fact, over the last month, Conley has gone 16 and 6, with pretty efficient rate numbers.

So, the question of whether or not the Thugs have quelled this little AST and A/TO rebellion by the Jabrones is still up in the air. But with the return of CP3, it appears that the O.N. Thugs are somewhat safe... and perhaps that the Jabrones won't get to play the role of Houdini.

Next time, I will post about how the O.N. Thugs may have played the role of Houdini this time around, and how the Jabrones may have cost themselves the biggest prize in UPL Basketball.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

16 comments:

Chairman said...

Oh - and what prompted this post in the first place was that I just saw that Joe Johnson may be out for 2 games, which would further hinder the Jabrones' efforts to upset the UPL Basketball world order :-)

Greg McConnell said...

I hear D-Will had a big game last night. Probably means the Jabrones are the first loser again. Which, all things considered, is still a decent finish but still doesn't prevent people from joking about it on the message boards...

Westy said...

A wise man once said, "Don't count your chickens before they hatch."

Chairman said...

Yeah. The media's a bitch :-)

Actually, scoring is basically irrelevant at this point. Deron and Westbrook combined for 19 AST (right on their average, which I had noted), so it doesn't really change much, other than shorten the amount of time that C-Lauff has to make something happen.

Incidentally, he finally dumped Anthony Randolph, which is/was going to be one of my talking points in my post explaining how C-Lauff dropped the ball on this one :-)

Chairman said...

Westy - I know that you grew up in a rural area, but what does counting livestock have to do with UPL Basketball excellence?

Westy said...

I remember a few prior years where you thought you had all your hay in the barn, but rain came on the last day of the season...and it turned out you didn't.

Chairman said...

I'm also sure that I'm sowing what I'm reaping.

On the bright side for you, you can pick up your boy Jonny Flynn now that Chowtime has started in on the traditional UPL end of the season assault on the O.N. Thugs :-)

Chairman said...

Interesting. Apparently Darren Collison will be the man for the rest of the season, w/ CP3's latest injury (yikes - tough season for that guy).

Here's to more UPL Basketball excitement!

Westy said...

Very interesting.

Re: Jonny Flynn, I think Chowtime gave up on him, realizing he wouldn't be a keeper and went for someone w/ more potential to be. And justifiably. Let's just say, I don't plan on picking him up, although C-Lauff may want to for some cheap assists.

Chairman said...

Come on, Westy. Darko? That's a long term move? Really. Maybe you can sell the idea of McGee. Maybe. But not on that roster.

This isn't rocket science - now's the time when the masses try to stage a coup. For example, you've been running your 3PM lineup, at the expense of your big man stats - I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt, assuming that you're out to get me, not that you've just miscalculated your optimal path :-)

I actually like the dynamics, though. At the very least, the bottom of the league gets the chance to pick up some useful players (Jameer and Flynn are both upgrades and probably keepers for a couple rosters).

Plus, it makes the W that much sweeter when you tell yourself that everyone was gunning for you, whereas C-Lauff would always wonder if he got a pass from you in BLK at the expense of my 3PM :-)

eric said...

In defense of my annual end of the season assault on the Thugs... Nelson and Flynn were never going to be my keepers. With Griffin and Yao riding the bench all season I'm already going to have some tough decisions on who to keep. McGee still may sneak in there if I want to be risky and go young. Darko may be a starter and could put up some serviceable stats. But since I wasn't going to keep Nelson and Flynn and there's only so much I can gain in the overall standings, might as well stock up on those blocks. McGee had 6 last night!

Chairman said...

Chowtime - no need to defend yourself :-) I know it's coming - I'm sure that it's a little sexier to pull out a point from me than it is to claw out potentially more points from non-contenders.

Chairman said...

I seem to have run into a lock that I can't quite pick - we'll see if it sinks my Houdini efforts this time around, and I'll explain more about it either way. Let's just say that if I end up losing by a slim margin, I will point to why (and how it was my own fault).

Also - a tie is still a possibility, though the odds of that happening seem lower this year, the way the stats seem to be running. But the O.N. Thugs are definitely not conceding anything

Westy said...

Call him Houdini!

clauff said...

I should probably change my team name to IamHoudini. Hey, look at that, it even rhymes with IamJabrone!

clauff said...

Wow, I get no respect :)