| IamJabrone | Floor burns | Phatsnapper | |||
| 3 | Dwyane Wade | 30 | Kevin Martin | 9 | Amar'e Stoudemire |
| 25 | Joe Johnson | 33 | Shawn Marion | 17 | Steve Nash |
| 31 | Gilbert Arenas | 50 | Stephen Jackson | 19 | Antawn Jamison |
| 34 | Carmelo Anthony | 63 | Mo Williams | 42 | Ray Allen |
| 38 | Josh Smith | 67 | Leandro Barbosa | 90 | Wilson Chandler |
| 48 | David Lee | 73 | Paul Millsap | 95 | Andrew Bogut |
| 51 | Derrick Rose | 78 | Lamar Odom | 99 | T.J. Ford |
| 60 | Al Horford | 93 | Richard Jefferson | 137 | Kenyon Martin |
| Love Timberwolves | Milwaukee Bricks | SuckMyDribblingBalls | |||
| 7 | Kevin Durant | 37 | Elton Brand | 6 | Kobe Bryant |
| 10 | Chris Bosh | 39 | Jason Richardson | 18 | Tim Duncan |
| 55 | Rajon Rondo | 41 | Baron Davis | 20 | Dwight Howard |
| 54 | Rudy Gay | 46 | Andris Biedrins | 23 | Jason Kidd |
| 66 | Andre Miller | 49 | Mehmet Okur | 71 | John Salmons |
| 77 | Zach Randolph | 69 | Al Harrington | 98 | Andrei Kirilenko |
| 84 | Josh Howard | 74 | Eric Gordon | 128 | Greg Oden |
| 87 | Kevin Love | 81 | Jason Terry | 153 | Rudy Fernandez |
| chowtime | Westy's Balltastics | Sparty Rules | |||
| 5 | Dirk Nowitzki | 12 | Kevin Garnett | 1 | Chris Paul |
| 6 | Danny Granger | 13 | Al Jefferson | 15 | Chauncey Billups |
| 8 | Pau Gasol | 16 | Caron Butler | 35 | Troy Murphy |
| 27 | Vince Carter | 22 | Andre Iguodala | 47 | Marcus Camby |
| 53 | Jameer Nelson | 24 | Devin Harris | 57 | Hedo Turkoglu |
| 65 | Tony Parker | 28 | Paul Pierce | 59 | Andrea Bargnani |
| 88 | Chris Kaman | 58 | Nene Hilario | 89 | Boris Diaw |
| 102 | Thaddeus Young | 92 | Luis Scola | 94 | Marvin Williams |
| Wakeup with the King | O.N. Thugs | ||||
| 2 | LeBron James | 11 | Brandon Roy | ||
| 21 | Jose Calderon | 14 | Deron Williams | ||
| 26 | Gerald Wallace | 29 | Brook Lopez | ||
| 36 | Rashard Lewis | 32 | David West | ||
| 43 | Manu Ginobili | 40 | LaMarcus Aldridge | ||
| 56 | O.J. Mayo | 44 | Carlos Boozer | ||
| 68 | Andrew Bynum | 45 | Monta Ellis | ||
| 108 | Shaquille O'Neal | 70 | Russell Westbrook | ||
And just for a crude analysis, here are some averages for each team:
| TEAM | AVG | TOP7 | TOP6 | TOP5 | TOP4 |
| IamJabrone | 36.3 | 32.9 | 29.8 | 26.2 | 23.3 |
| Floor burns | 60.9 | 56.3 | 52.7 | 48.6 | 44.0 |
| Phatsnapper | 63.5 | 53.0 | 45.3 | 35.4 | 21.8 |
| Love Timberwolves | 55.0 | 50.4 | 44.8 | 38.4 | 31.5 |
| Milwaukee Bricks | 54.5 | 50.7 | 46.8 | 42.4 | 40.8 |
| SuckMyDribblingBalls | 64.6 | 52.0 | 39.3 | 27.6 | 16.8 |
| chowtime | 44.3 | 36.0 | 27.3 | 19.8 | 11.5 |
| Westy's Balltastics | 33.1 | 24.7 | 19.2 | 17.4 | 15.8 |
| Sparty Rules | 49.6 | 43.3 | 35.7 | 31.0 | 24.5 |
| Wakeup with the King | 45.0 | 36.0 | 30.7 | 25.6 | 21.3 |
| O.N. Thugs | 35.6 | 30.7 | 28.3 | 25.2 | 21.5 |
| EXPECTED | 44.5 | 33.5 | 22.5 |
Here, I've listed each team's average pre-rank, based on the Yahoo! rankings of their 8 keepers, their top 7, their top 6, etc. Across the bottom, I've also listed the expected values.
It's not surprising that teams that finished towards the bottom last year would have keepers with lower pre-ranks (and higher values in this table), and that teams that finished toward the top would have higher pre-ranks. Of course, this gets a little out of whack, when owners take chances on players ranked in the 100's (like OD, who actually has two Trail Blazers on his keeper list, Rudy Fernandez and Greg Oden, who are ranked128 and 153, respectively)
Immediately some things should jump out at you. First of all, there are 3 teams with quality across their top 8: Westy, IAmJabrone, and the O.N. Thugs, each of whom have average pre-ranks in the 30's for their 8 keepers. Even more interesting is that Westy has the best average across this top 8 (heck, Paul Pierce was his 6th ranked player, and he was 28th overall), but finished tied for 5th place last year. This may explain Westy's comments about how he is still shocked that he didn't win last year. Also, in retrospect, the commish failed in his duties when he neglected to squash the Caron Butler for Tayshaun Prince trade.
If you believe in getting superstars, and then filling in the holes, then Chowtime should be a scary team this year. They have three out of the top 8 ranked players (Dirk, Granger, and Gasol). On the flip side, Floor Burns and Milwaukee Bricks would be in trouble with that criteria (and many other criteria), since their top players are ranked in the 30's. Interestingly, there are two other teams who lack players in the top 10. Shockingly, they are Westy and the O.N. Thugs. In both cases, they have multiple players in the top 20, and ton of players ranked in the top 50, but none of the top 10. I suppose that this just indicates that there are a many different ways to fill out a fantasy roster.
And yet another way to look at the quality of the teams is by the players that they didn't keep. The remaining top-100 players are:
Michael Redd (52) - IAmJabrone
Charlie Villanueva (61) - IAmJabrone
Ben Gordon (62) - O.N. Thugs
Mike Bibby (64) - Chowtime
Anthony Randolph (72) - IAmJabrone
Jeff Green (75) - SuckMyDribblingBalls
Rasheed Wallace (76) - Sparty Rules
Blake Griffin (79) - n/a
Spencer Hawes (80) - Phatsnapper
Emeka Okafor (82) - Milwaukee Bricks
J.R. Smith (83) - Milwaukee Bricks
Tyrus Thomas (85) - O.N. Thugs
Ron Artest (86) - O.N. Thugs
Mike Conley (91) - Love Timberwolves
Brad Miller (96) - Sparty Rules
Trevor Ariza (97) - n/a
Jason Thompson (100) - IAmJabrone
Interestingly, we see that the Milwaukee Bricks actually let go of two players in the 80's. But this isn't a questionable move, because they were actually their 9th and 10th rated players. Also, IAmJabrone and O.N. Thugs both had difficult choices in keeping lower-rated players (#60 Al Horford over #52 Michael Redd; #70 Russell Westbrook over #62 Ben Gordon). But perhaps the most interesting non-keeper is #64 Michael Bibby, who Chowtime dropped in lieu of not only #65 Tony Parker, but also #88 Chris Kaman, as well as #102 Thaddeus Young. Of course, this may also offer insight into why Westy didn't win last year, since none of the other players on his roster made this list. Really, his roster stopped at 7 players (#92 Luis Scola was his 8th keeper), and it appears that enough ground was made up by the O.N. Thugs and the European Sellouts (aka WakeUpWithTheKing) with the 3 remaining starting positions to overtake him.
All in all, this is a superficial look at the inaugural UPL keepers. And this superficial look suggests that we'll have a three team race for the top this year between IAmJabrone, Westy, and the O.N. Thugs. IAmJabrone probably has the inside track, given his luck in the UPL Lottery. To round off his team, the Jabrones will have 3 of the first 23 picks to fill in the rest of his starting 10. On the other hand Westy's 3rd pick will be 28th, and the Thugs' 3rd pick will be 33rd. But, as we all know, there's the actual season to be played, and many moves in free agency to be made. You can also make the case for top-heavy teams (Chowtime and SuckMyDribblingBalls) who will have a lot more certainty in their superstars' stats, and will know better how to build their supporting cast. Sparty is a regular on the UPL podium, though still w/out a UPL championship ring. And we haven't even mentioned the defending co-champ WakeUpWithTheKing!
In any case, if last year is any indicator, UPL Basketball will be a shootout. There were 7 very competitive teams last year, 6 of whom finished within 4 points of the title. Naturally, I'm hoping for a less exciting result, as I'm still predicting an O.N. Thugs sort of season. But that's the most predictable part of any preseason writeup I make, isn't it?
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
11 comments:
Great analysis as always Roland. And given that I don't fully trust yahoo rankings,I think that the league will be as tight as ever...
I'm looking forward to this draft more than most because we'll see some very strange picks as people draft by statistical need (meaning guys that may be specialists) over all-around talent.
Love the name "Wake up with the King." He's a defending champ, has LeBron on his team, and works in a humorous fast food ad campaign reference. Well done.
That's Stephan for you...
Greg - I liked Stephan's team name, as well. However, it makes for a little confusion in the writing. I almost feel like I need to add a character list to the blog to keep track of owners and team names.
C-Lauff - The Yahoo! rankings are basically junk. If they'd publish their algorithm, I'd have a lot more respect for it (actually, I may have a lot less respect for it, but that's another story). But it's easy data to reach for. Trust me, there's more sophisticated stuff up my sleeve. But I'm really lazy right now.
Very interesting.
I've actually developed my own Excel sheet based ranking system, but I'm not able to share the results until after the draft.
Westy - Not to go all TMQ on your, but I hope that your ranking system is based on some stats and observations, not just on Excel :-)
I am also considering doing something different than my usual plan of going out until 4am the night before the draft, rolling out of bed right when the draft is starting, and then picking guys whose names I can pronounce.
Maybe this is why the O.N. Thugs have had to resort to ridiculous comebacks the last few years...
Great work Roland. It was hard to give up Okafor and JR Smith, but it was calculated. As much as I would loved the thought of Emeka giving me 10 and 10 every game, the final decision came down to the fact he as also going to give me 55-60% FT and .350 A/T....maybe .500 this year as he improves with Chris Paul at the point. Also, I felt that Okafor would have kept me a little top heavy with Bigs going into the draft. With Smith it was just a big unknown. Is George Karl going to use him as a 'spark off the bench', or is he going to start? In either case he's going to be fighting for shots time with Billups and Carmelo, and who knows, but the addition of Aaron Afflalo may create more competition at SG (although I admit that I have no idea what's going to happen with that).
Jeff - Totally agree that both J.R. Smith and Emeka Okafor are question marks. I just thought that it was very interesting that you keepers' average rank was a little lower than average, but that two of your non-keepers were among the top players available.
Sort of makes you wonder how people have discussions like whether Dwight Howard or Okafor should be the #1 pick, though in fairness, had Okafor been healthy, his rebounding and shot blocking would be much closer.
Westy, if you don't mind, I'd be interested in seeing your Excel sheet (after the draft).
I'm a little surprised that the most love I got in the season preview was for my change in names to Wake up with the King. After choosing a horrific strategy and running out of games with a week or so left in the season, my team of mis-fits still performed well enough to tie for the league championship, and yet they go practically un-mentioned in the season preview here.
Yes, LeBron carries my team on his back more then he carries his real team, and yes i kept possibly the oldest guy in the game who is on his last leg, and yes I doubled my injury prone players on my team in the draft...but I would contend that it is rare that the reigning champs enter the season as an underdog
Stephan - totally agree. It's rare. But with my admittedly unsophisticated evaluation, that's how it shook out.
Plus, you had the misfortune of having some question marks emerge w/ your players. Rashard Lewis is out 10 games. Calderon had a 2nd ball-handler show up in Turkoglu. How will OJ Mayo coexist w/ Gay, Zach Randolph, and AI on the floor? Can Bynum stay healthy and finish making The Leap? Is Manu healthy again?
Of course, so long as you have King James, you'll have to work hard to not be in contention :-)
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