UPL Basketball Preview (Part I)

Now that the draft has come and gone, it's time to take a look into the crystal ball, and see how each team looks. Now, the UPL has a bit of a history. If you take a look at how things have played out since the 2005 season, you can see the expected average, high, and low team totals for each stat category.

	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	OREB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T
PROJ AVG	0.467	0.774	738	12960	1233	4898	2789	835	564	1.65
PROJ MAX	0.481	0.810	955	15078	1461	5514	3427	977	678	1.97
PROJ MIN	0.456	0.738	511	10741	999.5	4044	2223	690	404	1.43

This gives you a nice way to get a quick idea of where teams' fantasy points project out to. It's a nice little reference point to have before we start looking at each team. And to further simplify this, if you normalize by 820, you get some idea of what sort of numbers per game, your players need to average.

	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	OREB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T
Per Player AVG	0.467	0.774	0.9	15.8	1.5	6.0	3.4	1.0	0.7	1.65
Per Player MAX	0.481	0.81	1.2	18.4	1.8	6.7	4.2	1.2	0.8	1.97
Per Player MIN	0.456	0.738	0.6	13.1	1.2	4.9	2.7	0.8	0.5	1.43

So, you need to average at least 16 PPG, 6 REB, 3.5 AST, and chip in 1 3PM, 1 STL and 1 BLK if you want to be competitive. And you should be looking at .467 from the field, .774 from the line, and 1.65 A/T. That should get you to about 60 points (11 team league), which would have put you in 8th place last year. Based on last year's finish, the league looks like it's going to have 4 teams who are in long-term building mode, and 7 teams that have legit shots to win it now.

So, with out further ado, we'll take a look at the teams that are probably going to be fighting for the top spot. Certainly, the base assumption is that teams stay healthy. Projected stats, and the corresponding fantasy performance is based on the likely distribution of playing time, that an active owner would assign. First, we will look at WakeUpWithTheKing and the O.N. Thugs, the two returning co-champs, as well as Sparty Rules, the team that fell out of first place in the last week of the season. Part II will focus on the other 4 likely contenders, and Part III will examine the 4 teams that are likely in rebuilding mode.

O.N. Thugs:
Last year's co-champs. Four consecutive champ/co-champs. UPL GOAT. Willing to mix it up with trades. Obsessed with Deron Williams since 2002.

2009-10 Outlook: 8 Keepers are all locked in as obvious starters, with question marks at SF and UTIL2. Balanced, deep team w/out a true fantasy pantheon player. Missed draft. Has already released 3 out of 6 auto-drafted players, and picked up young players as replacements. Lots of depth at PG, which may help in future trades.

Potential Injury Impact: Relatively low. Balanced team with lots of positional flexibility. The O.N. Thugs have historically been able to use team depth to make trades when injuries arise.

Positional Battles: Mike Miller/J.R. Smith/Danilo Gallinari at SF; those players, plus Louis Williams/Brandon Jennings at UTIL2.

Book a 5-Peat If: Boozer regains fitness and scoring touch. Russell Westbrook shoots above 43% from the floor.

Life Becomes Easier If: Either J.R. Smith or Danilo Gallinari put up reasonable peripheral stats to go with their 2-3 3PM per game. Mike Miller scores 12 PPG, and becomes an everyday starter. Brandon Jennings really is a 17, 9, and 6 guy.

Will Go Down in Flames If: Portland and Utah team planes crash into each other in real life.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): PTS, OREB, REB, AST
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FG%, FT%, STL, BLK, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 75 points. Range from 70 to 80. Would be surprising if they finished worse than 3rd place.


WakeUpWithTheKing:
Last year's co-champs. Relatively new to the UPL, but has established a top-half reputation. Has LeBron.

2009-10 Outlook: Has LeBron, which helps in so many ways. Lots of question marks due to injury. Has a couple category specialists, so some fine-tuning may be needed. May need help on the boards, especially if Shaq hurts scoring too much to play. Calderon will stabilize A/TO, but not enough depth in AST. Loss of Rashard Lewis for 10 games may keep this team from really being a top 3PM team. May be able to trade BLK to make up other stats. Did I mention he has LeBron?

Potential Injury Impact: Moderate to high. LeBron aside, losing anyone on the roster wouldn't be catastrophic. However, Shaq, Ginobli, Chandler, Bynum, and Gerald Wallace all have injury histories.

Positional Battles: Lots of combinations are in play. LeBron, Calderon, Gerald Wallace, Rashard Lewis, and Andrew Bynum will always play. Probably same goes for Ginobli, O.J. Mayo and Tyrus Thomas (though they're less certain). Chandler and Shaq appear to be similar fantasy players at this point.

Book a Repeat If: Injury bug stays away. Bynum makes The Leap. We look back and decide that Shaq was deserving of being a keeper. Tyrus Thomas gets PT and becomes a 14+ PPG guy.

Life Becomes Easier If: Shaq and Chandler aren't done. Rashard Lewis comes back with vengeance. Tyreke Evans and Terrence Willams step up.

Will Go Down in Flames If: LeBron gets hurt. Mayo and Tyrus Thomas get squeezed in playing time/shots. Don't get help from Tyreke Evans and Terrence Williams.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): BLK
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, 3PM, PTS, OREB, REB, AST, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 68 points. Range from 62 to 74 points. Top-half team, but doesn't have the look of a top-3 finish.

Sparty Rules:
3rd place last year. Fell from 1st place in the last week. Traditionally a top-half UPL team. Has CP3, and took him over LeBron.

2009-10 Outlook: Has CP3, which automatically makes you competitive in AST and A/TO. Scoring will probably be a concern, as will FG%, given the relatively lower quality big men. A few questions marks about how players will fit in new roles or new surroundings (Artest, Bargnani, Turkoglu, Stuckey). Camby is coming off injury, and if injury prone.

Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Obviously, CP3 going down would be catastrophic. Virtually all of the likely big man starters (Camby, Artest, Marvin Williams, and Troy Murphy) have injury track records.

Positional Battles: Suckey and Hinrich are jockeying to be 3rd guard, though neither is desirable at UTIL. Could shift Turkoglu to guard, if Artest is a worthwhile starter. Birdman/Dalembert could take PT from Diaw/Marvin Williams if BLK are needed.

A UPL Title is in the Works If: Stuckey and Jeff Green make The Leap. Turkoglu replicates numbers in Canada, without hurting Bargnani development.

Life Becomes Easier If: Diaw establishes himself as a legit fantasy player. Artest's numbers stay reasonable.

Will Go Down in Flames If: CP3 gets hurt. Turkoglu and Bargnani cannabalize each other's numbers.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FT%, 3PM, REB, AST, A/TO
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%, OREB, PTS
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 70 points. CP3's UPL supporting cast looks better than LeBron's. Top half finish for sure. Likely top 4.