UPL Basketball 2009 Draft Recap

This year, I decided to employ a new strategy. In one of the comments of my last post, I made this bold declaration:

"I am also considering doing something different than my usual plan of going out until 4am the night before the draft, rolling out of bed right when the draft is starting, and then picking guys whose names I can pronounce."

And sure enough, I kept my promise. This year, I stayed out too late, and just slept through the draft entirely. The best part was that right around 10:30, OD gives me a call to remind me about the draft. I groan, pick up the phone, see that it's OD, and decide, "Ugh. I'll just give him a call back later." Then a little later, I wake up at 11:25, and realize that the draft was long over. I'm awesome.

So, this draft recap will be a little different, since it will be more of a historical analysis, than an ethnography. But it should still be interesting. And it's interesting - my philosophy in fantasy sports, particularly keeper leagues, is that you get the guy that you want, unless there's absolute, clear value. This is me taking Deron Williams over D-Wade, because D-Will is my guy, and there's the greater threat of catastrophic injury for D-Wade. I mean, that's probably still a homer pick. But that's my mode of thinking, which makes me surprised at some of the picks that happened in this draft.

Round 9
1	Anthony Randolph	IamJabrone
2	Rasheed Wallace	Floor burns
3	Michael Redd	Phatsnapper
4	Charlie Villanueva	Love Timberw...
5	Ben Gordon	Milwaukee Br...
6	Emeka Okafor	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Blake Griffin	chowtime
8	Mike Bibby	Westy's Ball...
9	Jeff Green	Sparty Rules
10	Tyrus Thomas	Wakeup with ...
11	Spencer Hawes	O.N. Thugs

Right off the bat, we see some interesting choices. First of all, the Jabrones go with hype, hope for the playing time, and take Anthony Randolph, who's supposed to be coming into his own this year. I'd have played it safer and either gone with Redd or Gordon, or just go with Blake Griffin right there (note we'll ignore the broken kneecap, since that hadn't happened, yet). You can't really fault this pick, since they weren't going to pick again for a while. You get the guy you want.

The next pick is just flat out mystifying. Rasheed is a 35 year old big, who will give you some OK stats, but will probably be option 3a or 3b in Boston this year. He probably only racks up about 28 minutes per game, and probably won't score 12 ppg. His rebounding numbers will go down, and his FG% will be bad since he hangs out on the perimeter and jacks 3's. But other than that, he's great. Given FloorBurns' relatively weak back-end keepers, the pick here should have been Redd or a younger player that is likely to emerge as a keeper. Certainly not Rasheed.

At this point, there are a series of teams that finished low, and need long-term help. I'm OK with Redd going #3 and Gordon going #5. I'm just confused by Charlie Villaneuva at #4. He's still young, but last season, playing for a bad Bucks team, he played 27 minutes per game. Career, he has played 26.5 minutes per game. He'll be in a rotation with a bunch of players in Detroit, and looks to be the 4th or 5th best offensive option on that team (after Gordon, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and maybe Rodney Stuckey). His hustle stats are OK. His shooting is subpar for a big. The odds of him being a keeper next year are about 40-60, against. This pick should have been a much better upside pick (Blake Griffin, Tyrus Thomas, Emeka Okafor, etc.) I'm not really a fan.

Then comes OD, with the 6th pick. And he rolls w/ his UConn guy, Okafor. If he's healthy, Okafor's looking like a 14 and 10 guy, with maybe 1.5 to 2 blocks. The problem is, he's always banged up, and he's actually regressed a bit from his best season in 06-07. If you were evaluating this pick in a bubble, you can definitely make a good case for it. But the problem is that Chowtime picks 7th. As I noted before, his team was ranked really high up top, but his last 2 keepers were marginal, at best. And he ends up with Blake Griffin. This is a very scary outcome, actually, and this would probably have not happened had I been awake, as I probably would have berated OD until he picked Griffin. Now Westy misses out on his chance to upgrade his 8th keeper from Luis Scola to Blake Griffin, who goes to Chowtime.

Westy wants to go little, and decides to try to win this year by picking up Mike Bibby, who is probably a marginal keeper next year, and passes on younger players like Jonny Flynn, Steph Curry, or Tyreke Evans (who may last another two rounds). Can't really fault the Mike Bibby selection, though I'm not particularly fond of him in that dysfunctional ATL offense... and I can't really believe that Bibby is who Westy really wants on his roster, long-term.

The next pick is the 2nd boner by OD of the draft. Somehow, he decided to keep Rudy Fernandez, and let Jeff Green go. Huge mistake. Rudy would have probably been available in the 12th or 13th round. Green is an easy choice for the 9th, and normally would have fit in better for Westy, but Westy was looking for a guard, and not the best value available. Sparty is more than happy to pick him up, since scoring appears to be an issue for him, and Green will help there. The next pick is a killer for me. The guy I was hoping would fall to me, Tyrus Thomas, gets snatched up by Stephan. Not sure about his PT in the Bulls rotation, w/ Deng coming back, but he played great down the stretch last year. He can single-handedly keep you in contention in both STL and BLK.

Which actually leaves me in a bad situation, even if I had been present. Going into the draft, had I been picking first, I would have probably picked Redd since he qualified at SF, and helps me out w/ the 3PM. My next best option would have been Blake Griffin. There was virtually no chance that they fall to me at 11. I was hoping that Tyrus Thomas and J.R. Smith would be available. I did end up getting J.R. Smith w/ my 2nd pick (the first of the 10th round), but I also got stuck w/ the auto-draft special, Spencer Hawes. I think that the computer decided that the O.N. Thugs needed the best white player available.

Now, had I been there, I would have settled on J.R. Smith, and one of the following: Tyson Chandler, Trevor Ariza, Michael Beasley, Tyreke Evans, or Allen Iverson. Possibly Yao. Given my lack of quality at SF, there's a good chance that it would have been Ariza or Beasley. But I may have also just gone w/ Chandler again, figuring that he wouldn't screw me 2 years in a row. But instead, I end up with Spencer Hawes. I'm trying to talk myself into this guy. He was 11 and 7 last year, in about 29 minutes per game. He blocks over a shot a game. Did I mention that he was white? We'll see how long this guys lasts on the O.N. Thugs.

Round 10
1	J.R. Smith	O.N. Thugs
2	Tyson Chandler	Wakeup with ...
3	Ron Artest	Sparty Rules
4	Mike Conley	Westy's Ball...
5	Brad Miller	chowtime
6	Tayshaun Prince	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Trevor Ariza	Milwaukee Br...
8	Jason Thompson	Love Timberw...
9	Luol Deng	Phatsnapper
10	Joakim Noah	Floor burns
11	Jermaine O'Neal	IamJabrone

The 10th round opens up with my auto-draft bouncing back and getting me J.R. Smith. Stephan takes another guys I had highly rated, in Tyson Chandler. Sparty picks up former and eternal Thug, Ron Artest, who's an interesting pick, since his level of variance is so high in that Laker offense. If you told me that he'll score 7 points per game this year, I'd believe you. And if you told me that he'll score 15 points per game, I'd believe you. I have no clue what he'll be doing this year in LA.

Now, the 4th pick of the round is surprising to me. Westy goes Mike Conley. He was 10 and 4 last year, in 30 minutes per game. He'll chip in a 3PM and a STL per game, but not much else. This year he has AI in the mix, as well as a bunch of gunners (Mayo, Gay, and Zach Randolph). I am shocked that Westy goes with Conley here, over Jonny Flynn (his Minnesota guy) or Tyreke Evans (who's my guess at ROY this year, now that Blake went down), especially since his next pick isn't for another 15 picks. Particularly in a keeper draft, I believe in the idea of getting the guy you want, and again, I have a hard time believing that Conley is the guy that Westy really wanted.

The rest of the round is sort of uneventful. Phatsnapper and OD may be getting value with Luol Deng and Tayshaun. The Jabrones must believe that they're set with AST, and go big w/ Jermaine O'Neal, who may or may not be totally washed up.

Round 11
1	Richard Hamilton	IamJabrone
2	Chris Duhon	Floor burns
3	Francisco Garcia	Phatsnapper
4	Michael Beasley	Love Timberw...
5	Jamal Crawford	Milwaukee Br...
6	Ryan Gomes	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Jonny Flynn	chowtime
8	Allen Iverson	Westy's Ball...
9	Rodney Stuckey	Sparty Rules
10	Tyreke Evans	Wakeup with ...
11	Mike Miller	O.N. Thugs

The 11th round starts off with the Jabrones picking up Rip Hamilton, who has been shooting more 3's the last couple years, but still isn't a real 3PM guy. I'd say that he's a borderline starter for a top flight fantasy team, but completely doesn't fit into my style of roster building (I don't like guys that only score unless they drain 3's, which is why I was actually considering not keeping Monta Ellis). I'm not fond of either the Duhon or the Garcia pick, since they don't seem to have keeper potential. Love the Beasley pick by Robby. Jamal Crawford drives me nuts, and looks to be the 6th man in ATL... I'd probably pass. Then comes the interesting pick. Jonny Flynn (who Westy is high on), goes to Chowtime. Westy gest AI, instead. I'm willing to bet that at this point, Westy regrets the Conley pick. After that, Stuckey goes to Sparty. And for the 2nd time in 2 tries, I lose my guy to Stephan. Had I been at the draft, I probably would have been angry at this point. But I end up with Mike Miller.

I'm actually OK with Mike Miller at the end of the 11th round, since it appears that he'll be starting in Washington, and when Arenas is on the bench, there's a good chance that the offense gets facilitated through Miller. I'm guessing that his scoring stays in the low teens, but he'll keep making 3PM, and will put up okay AST and REB numbers.

Round 12
1	Peja Stojakovic	O.N. Thugs
2	Al Thornton	Wakeup with ...
3	Chris Andersen	Sparty Rules
4	Marc Gasol	Westy's Ball...
5	Stephen Curry	chowtime
6	Raymond Felton	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Mario Chalmers	Milwaukee Br...
8	Ronnie Brewer	Love Timberw...
9	Courtney Lee	Phatsnapper
10	Nate Robinson	Floor burns
11	Ramon Sessions	IamJabrone

Now, what I'm not thrilled about is getting Peja in the 12th. Unless he's healthy. If he's healthy, then he's 16 points, and 3 3PM a game. But my preference would have been Steph Curry. But instead, the auto-draft has decided that since we picked just about the blackest dude possible in J.R. Smith, I needed more whiteness on my team so much that we went with the 2 best white players available. Good times.

The good news is that Stephan finally has a pick that I'm not envious of. Chowtime adds another potential keeper. I still have a suspicion that Raymond Felton will finally emerge at a legit player, so I actually like this pick. Ronnie Brewer is an interesting player. His shooting has nowhere to go but up. Teams were leaving him wide open from 18 feet, which is unheard of in the NBA. He's really good at getting STL, but has been a total liability on offense. Mario Chalmers is a nice little pick up for the Bricks, since he'll help you be competitive in 3PM and STL, and has a good A/TO, though he doesn't handle the ball enough to really accumulate points or AST. I'm curious to see how Nate Robinson progresses for the Knicks. Any point guard in a Mike D'Antoni system has the chance to put up big numbers, but he's such a gunner that even with some stat inflation, he's only putting up 4 AST per game.

Round 13
1	Tracy McGrady	IamJabrone
2	Randy Foye	Floor burns
3	Corey Maggette	Phatsnapper
4	Larry Hughes	Love Timberw...
5	Aaron Brooks	Milwaukee Br...
6	D.J. Augustin	SuckMyDribbl...
7	DeJuan Blair	chowtime
8	Mike Dunleavy	Westy's Ball...
9	Samuel Dalembert	Sparty Rules
10	Matt Barnes	Wakeup with ...
11	Shane Battier	O.N. Thugs

Tracy McGrady is a nice lottery ticket here in the 13th round by the Jabrones, especially when he comes back w/out Yao clogging up the lane for him. Maggette may be a nice value pick if he's healthy. I like Chowtime's pick again, as he'll have an option for rebounding, if he needs it. And Blair did show some nice touch in the low block. Nothing too exciting the rest of the round. I'm a little surprised that Westy didn't take Battier (who he defended quite a bit last year, when I suggested that Battier shouldn't have been on his roster). The main reason that I'm surprised is that I would have assumed that I was fated to draft Mike Dunleavy, as the auto-draft continued on it's "best white player available" strategy for me. I'm not exactly thrilled w/ Battier, but in the 13th, it could be worse. Plus, w/ T-Mac and Yao out for the time being, a few more points may fall his way. I'm much more excited about who the auto-draft sent my way in the last round.

Round 14
1	Louis Williams	O.N. Thugs
2	Brendan Haywood	Wakeup with ...
3	Kirk Hinrich	Sparty Rules
4	Darko Milicic	Westy's Ball...
5	Yao Ming	chowtime
6	Grant Hill	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Brandon Rush	Milwaukee Br...
8	Yi Jianlian	Love Timberw...
9	Zydrunas Ilgauskas	Phatsnapper
10	James Harden	Floor burns
11	Anthony Morrow	IamJabrone

I like Louis Williams, since he's got a lot of upside at one of those gunners on a bad team. He'll finally be starting in Philly, w/ Andre Miller out. And best of all, at least I didn't end up with Brendan Haywood, like Stephan did... or Darko, like Westy did... Chowtime gets the chance to add another keeper to his roster, if his team stays healthy enough so that he can carry Yao all year. I'm a bit surprised that the Bricks go with Brandon Rush, rather than getting their ASU guys, James Harden. The nickname stealer Yi has actually been putting up good numbers, so Robby may be getting a nice value here. And the last pick of the draft goes to the Jabrones: Anthony Morrow. Who the hell's Anthony Morrow? No, seriously. It took a while, but we finally got to a player that I had no idea what team they played for, where they went to college, what position they played. I realize that it's the Mr. Irrelevant pick, but still... who the hell's Anthony Morrow?

Okay. Now, I'm not going to get into the pre-season evaluations, yet, since this draft recap ran long. That post will come later this week, I think.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)