UPL Basketball Preview (Part II)

We are continuing on with our UPL Basketball Preview. Part I took a look at last year's podium teams. Now, we're going to look at 4 teams that appear to be contenders for the UPL podium.

IAmJabrone:
Last year's 4th place team. UPL Career Triple Crown (2005 Hoops, 2008 Baseball, 2008 Football). Generally expected to finish 2nd or 3rd, and generally expects to finish 2nd or 3rd.

2009-10 Outlook: Strong keeper core, based on Yahoo! pre-rank. Anchored by legit fantasy superstar D-Wade (who mysteriously fell to 9 in the original keeper draft). Keepers may be top-heavy (variability with Horford and D-Rose, production decline and lack of shooting ability from Josh Smith). Carmelo may put up over 30 PPG in high tempo Denver system. Current roster has an extreme lack of depth (Anthony Randolph was somewhat strange 1st draft pick, Sessions is not playable, Lawson is young and a reserve, T-Mac is out)

Potential Injury Impact: High. D-Wade, Gilbert Arenas, Jermaine O'Neal, Rip Hamilton are all being counted on, and all are injury prone players. T-Mac was a lottery ticket, but is out for at least the first month.

Positional Battles: Not many, due to roster composition. May be tempted to play Anthony Randolph, as he was #1 overall pick in draft this year.

Book a UPL Title If: Everyone stays healthy. Josh Smith's regression was a fluke. Anthony Randolph is legit.

Life Becomes Easier If: Horford and D-Rose both continue to improve. T-Mac comes back healthy in December. Carmelo's early season play is for real.

Will Go Down in Flames If: D-Wade goes down. Can't get help in free agency.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): PTS, AST
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FG%, OREB, REB, BLK, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FT%, 3PM,
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 66 points. Range from 60 to 72. Likely top half team, but lack of depth will make trading a more difficult option. Will need more luck than usual to make a legit run.


Westy's Balltastics:
Last year's 5th place team, who still can't believe they didn't win. 2-time UPL Basketball Champ (2003, 2004). Typically a top 4 UPL team. Has difficulty in trade talks, often due to poor application of game theory or human psychology.

2009-10 Outlook: Strong top-6 keepers. Then team talent falls off, as evidenced by keeping Luis Scola. Lots of help in the draft, particularly with Marc Gasol and Channing Frye's early play. Will have a solid core, though there may be a lack of elite scoring. May run into issues with real-life playing time w/ Conley and AI. 3PM will hinge on Channing Frye. Will have a lot of flexibility in playing for specific stat categories, and has bigs to move. Lack of obvious quality at PG.

Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Top 2 players (Al Jefferson and KG) are coming off injury, and need to be healthy. Caron Butler and Devin Harris always seem to be nicked up, but never too major. However, team is relatively deep and has statistical flexibility save for AST.

Positional Battles: Competition between Conley/Iverson/Bibby for at least 1 starting spot. May need to fill 2 spots w/ Gasol/Scola/Frye.

Book a UPL Title If: Al Jefferson is healthy and as effective as last year. KG hasn't aged in dog years.

Life Becomes Easier If: Gasol and Frye continue to play as well as they have. Another PG emerges, either from roster, free agency, or trade.

Will Go Down in Flames If: The manager misplays roster. Injury bug hits again

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, STL
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, PTS, OREB, REB, AST, BLK, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 71 points. Range from 68 to 81. Should get back on to podium after last year's collapse. Legit contender, w/ enough roster flexibility to get extra points, but no 1st tier start to ride. Upside potential as high as anyone else in league.


Chowtime:
Last year's 6th place team. Typically a top-half UPL team. Has 2 podium finishes, both of which came at the expense of Westy on the last day of the season.

2009-10 Outlook: Top 4 keepers are ranked ridiculously high (Dirk, Granger, Gasol, Vinsanity). Then team talent falls off dramatically. Needed help in the draft, and got it when teams fell asleep at the wheel (or bet on Anthony Randolph), netting Blake Griffin. Yao, Flynn, and Curry are potential keepers, but may reduce the ability to win this year. Team should be really efficient, but may not have enough of the counting stats.

Potential Injury Impact: Huge - already happening. Yao takes spot, and reduces flexibility. Vinsanity is always nicked. Griffin has been hit with the Clipper Curse. Gasol hasn't played, yet. Already may be forced to surrender games played at C. If anything else bad happens, may not be able to recover.

Positional Battles: Ideally, between Flynn and Curry, you only play 1, but both are being forced into action. Ditto for Thaddeus Young, Battier, and Blatche.

Book a UPL Title If: Kaman keeps up the 22 and 10 pace. Yao somehow comes back this year and is good. Griffin, Curry, and Flynn are 1-2-3 in ROY voting.

Life Becomes Easier If: Injuries let up.

Will Go Down in Flames If: There isn't a real change soon - it's hard to carry 4 injured players on a 14 man roster. All 10 of the other guys have to stay healthy, and they all have to be good!

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, FT%, 3PM, A/TO
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): PTS, AST, STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): OREB, REB
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 72 points. Range from 62 to 82. Legit contender, but may not be able to get help w/ a trade. If Blake Griffin comes back and is putting up 8+ rebounds per game, that could change the calculus very quickly. Things could go south for this team, more so than others.


SuckMyDribblingBalls:
Last year's 7th place team. Typically a top 4 UPL team, but stopped actively managing team last year, due to the presence of craz Mexican in the house. Now that the divorce is final, should have more time to manage team.

2009-10 Outlook: Strong in the middle, with Duncan and Howard anchoring REB and BLK. Adding on Oden and Okafor essentially locks up BLK, with one of the two looking like attractive trade bait. Kobe will help with points, but it may not be enough, if you need to carry Kidd and Oden in the lineup (both at about 8 PPG). Unhealthy fascination with Rudy Fernandez, who probably should not have been kept - Jeff Green would have helped this team immensely.

Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Obviously, Kobe must stay healthy. Lots of depth with the bigs, but is thin at guard. Really dependent on Kidd for AST and A/TO. Grant Hill is old, Duncan is getting old, Okafor and Oden are injury prone. Things could go downhill very quickly.

Positional Battles: Ideally, either Felton or Augustin step up and become legit fantasy options. Also, Okafor or Oden (probably don't want both starting)

Book a UPL Title If: Kobe is Kobe. Dwight Howard learns a 2nd low-post move. One of the extra bigs is traded for a legit 3PM and AST option.

Life Becomes Easier If: Both Felton and Augustin emerge as legit options. Tayshaun Prince finally makes The Leap. Okafor gets along with CP3.

Will Go Down in Flames If: Injury to Kidd or Kobe. Keeps playing Rudy Fernandez too mcuh.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, OREB, REB, BLK
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): PTS, AST, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FT%, 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 72 points. Range from 65 to 79 points. Team will be very good in rebounding and blocks, but needs help scoring. Should be able to move a big and get some stats back in return.