UPL Basketball Preview (Part III)

For the third part of the 2009-10 UPL Basketball Preview, we're going to use a slightly different format than we did in Part I and Part II, which looked at the 7 teams that were likely to contend this year. We'll take a brief look at each team's 2009-10 outlook, along with some fantasy stat projections. But we'll take a little more time looking at more strategic considerations, rather the more tactical considerations that were the focus of the first two parts of the UPL preview.


Floor Burns:
Last year's 8th place team. UPL veteran, though not a regular podium team.

2009-10 Outlook:Not likely to finish in top 4. Many question marks revolving around real-life playing time and roles on offense (Duhon/Nate Robinson, Millsap, Richard Jefferson, Capt. Jack, Marion, Odom, 'Sheed, Varejao). Kevin Martin is looking like legit scorer (though currently injured). Joakim Noah seems to have emerged as a 10 and 10 sort of guy, who chips in STL and BLK, as well. Probably should have kept Rodney Stuckey (currently about 17PTS, 6REB, and 4AST per game).

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): 3PM
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, PTS, OREB, REB, STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%, AST, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 58 points. May be able to move some 3PM to get help. Needs major help at PG.

Who is the Core?: Kevin Martin, Joakim Noah, Lamar Odom, and Mo Williams? If these guys are the ones to build around, then this is not an ideal core. However, they are the best players, and thus, the most attractive trade pieces. If you can get 2 Tremendous Upside Potential (TUP) guys in return on a trade, you probably have to make the move (particularly if it's Odom).

The Deadweight: There probably needs to be a roster purge. 'Sheed's value is nil, save for teams desperate for 3PM. Duhon's offense is atrocious, and Nate Robinson has fallen out of favor in NY. Foye and Barbosa are playing reserve minutes, and putting up reserve stats. These players have little trade value, but are taking up valuable roster space.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: May need to play the timing game, to sell some of the question marks when they're hot. Unfortunately, Capt. Jack's trade to Charlotte probably hurts his fantasy value, since GS played with a very high tempo. Also, Shawn Marion's value has just fallen through the floor since he left PHX. Millsap hasn't had the playing time with Boozer back in the Utah lineup. If these players can be moved at a reasonable price, then there shouldn't be any sentiment with these guys.

Recommended Moves: Build around Kevin Martin and Joakim Noah. Find a taker for Mo Williams and/or Lamar Odom. Someone will take a chance on 18 PTS, 4AST, and 2.5 3PM per game on good efficiency. And 9 PTS, 10REB, and 5AST is a nice balance, and could easily find a place on a team with good scoring. You should be able to get 3 TUP guys out of these two, preferably at least one PG in that mix. Try to find a taker for Duhon or 'Sheed, which actually may be possible, given their strength in AST and 3PM. The goal is to end the season with 5-6 clear keepers, and then use the draft to continue the rebuilding process, with a chance at the podium 2011-2012.


Milwaukee Bricks:
Last year's 9th place team. UPL veteran, typically a middle of the pack team.

2009-10 Outlook: Of last year's bottom 4, this team is probably the most stable, but not a ton of upside (not super likely to challenge for a crown soon). Keeper core provide a solid base in PTS and 3PM. However, there is a lack of depth everywhere else. Has already dropped one keeper, Andris Biedrins. Was probably helped in this year's draft more than any other team (Ben Gordon, Jamal Crawford, Kendrick Perkins, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks). Baron Davis and Elton Brand are HUGE question marks. Ironically, Davis signed with the Clip to play w/ Brand, only to have Brand bail and sign in Philly. I wonder if the Bricks are tempting basketball fate by playing them together.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): 3PM
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, PTS, STL,
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%, OREB, REB, AST, BLK, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 55 points. May be able to move some 3PM to get help. Needs major help at PG.

Who is the Core?: A major issue is that there are a lot of guys who are pretty good, but not great scorers, but don't really help w/ REB or AST. The best of the bunch is Eric Gordon, because he is so young. After that there needs to be some educated guesswork. Ben Gordon is only 26, and is probably a 2nd piece to build around. Problem is that these guys don't help across the board. Trevor Ariza is a nice addition for hustle stats (and has been scoring well this year), but his FG% is concerning. Baron Davis and Elton Brand (an ironic pair, given their problems with each other in real life) are huge question marks, and you have to figure out whether you can build around them.

The Deadweight: Perhaps surprisingly, there aren't a ton of guys that you look at on this roster, and just say, they don't belong. Guys that I'm not personally fond of are Jamal Crawford (16 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST on 44.5% shooting), Jason Terry (17 PTS, 3REB, 3 AST, on 42.8% shooting) and Chuck Hayes (6 PTS, 7 REB, 2 STL, and 50% FT shooting), but even they're not terrible, and could be situational plays.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: Obviously, decisions on Baron Davis and Elton Brand are crucial. See if you can't more either Crawford or Terry (or ideally, both), and get a couple TUP guys. You can't really win with those guys both playing major minutes for you. Jason Richardson is a mirage - 17 PTS, 2.5 3PM, and 6 REB isn't bad, especially for a good FG% guy. But the lack of AST, STL, and BLK strain the rest of the lineup. Okur is 30 now, and seems to be a 15 and 7 guy, not a 18 and 9 guy, but getting some 3PM from your C spot is nice. I don't know if you want to build around that. Must upgrade a big - hard to win with Landry as your PF.

Recommended Moves: Banking on Baron Davis and Elton Brand isn't the worst thing in the world. Davis' FG% is below 40%, but he's still putting up 16 and 7 and has a high A/TO. If you can get a legit big, then move Davis, but no need to panic there. Brand finally showed some signs of life with a huge game (19 and 11, w/ 6 BLK, 7 OREB, and 3STL). Hang on to Eric Gordon, and try to move Okur, JRich, along with Crawford/Terry/Hayes/Landry. If the right deal comes along for Ben Gordon, he could be had, as well. Moving into next year with a core of Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Aaron Brooks, Ben Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Elton Brand, and a couple upgraded bigs wouldn't be the worst thing int he world. This team could compete for a top-half finish next year.


Love T'Wolves:
Last year's 10th place team. UPL veteran, but no UPL podium time (though has been the #1 seed going into football playoffs).

2009-10 Outlook: This team is the most likely to rise from the bottom of the league into the top half, and of the non-O.N. Thugs teams, I would rate Love T'Wolves as being one of the 4 most likely to win a UPL championship within the next 3 years (with Sparty, elder Westy, and Chowtime). Great building blocks in Bosh, Durant, and Rondo, who anchor PTS, REB, and AST. Less reliable as a person, but very reliable in fantasy is Zach Randolph who just goes along for 20 and 10 on good efficiency every year. Currently have some stopgaps, like Andre Miller and Larry Hughes, who aren't going to be keepers down the road. If this team can figure out who the next 4 keepers are, particularly if they bring in quality guards into the fold, this will be a high upside team moving forward.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): OREB, REB
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FG%,FT%, PTS, STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): 3PM, AST, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 66 points. This number could easily go up, with a couple moves, particularly at G.

Who is the Core?: This is much more easily answered, and frankly, this core is right up there with anyone else in the league. Bosh, Durant, Z-Bo, and Rondo give you a nice start, particularly since Bosh and Durant make up for Rondo's lack of scoring. Rudy Gay is a scorer, and right on the cusp of being a legit keeper, but his AST and A/TO numbers keep him from being an obvious keeper. Thompson and Beasley have all sorts of upside, given their youth. And of course, the team's namesake, Kevin Love is still coming off injury and hasn't played this year.

The Deadweight: Josh Howard and Ronnie Brewer don't seem to be good enough to justify roster spots right now. And hanging on to injured players like Howard (and Love, and Yi), also restrict flexibility. But there aren't exactly obvious moves to be made.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: There's a bit of a wait-and-see going on w/ guys like Gay, Love, (I wanted to make sure that we put Gay, followed by Love, here, in that order), Villanueva, Beasley, and Yi. So, the moves need to wait until we get a better picture of how these guys will play out.

Recommended Moves: The best option may actually be to try to move Zach Randolph to get legit quality at G. This is especially the case if you think that Jason Thompson or Kevin Love project out to be roughly on par with Z-Bo in 2 years. Similarly, moving someone from the Villanueva, Beasley, and Yi trio to get an upside G is a winning move. Could potentially overpay for a 15 PTS, 5 AST guard, and have it be a net win, if it's a younger guard. The core of Bosh, Durant, Rondo, Thompson, Gay, Love, the best of Villanueva/Beasley/Yi, and a quality guard looks to be a nice core for the coming years.


Phatsnapper:
Last year's last place team. UPL veteran, a feast (1 UPL Baseball Title) or famine owner, with more famine than feasts.

2009-10 Outlook:Not likely to finish in top 4. Major question mark is how involved the owner will be. Nice core of Nash, Amare, Ray Allen, Jamison, and Bogut. Drafting Redd, Deng, and Maggette is helpful. TJ Ford appears to be a keeper bust, while Chandler and Kenyon Martin are sort of borderline. This team really needs the 25 and 9 version of Amare, not the current 19 and 8 incarnation. However, Nash seems to have found the fountain of youth, and it would do wonders if nash could share w/ Allen and Jamison. Deng is having a nice bounce-back year, as is Maggette. Jamison and Redd's injuries have killed the start of the season.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, 3PM, PTS, OREB, REB, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): AST, STL, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 58 points. Actual projections are discounted, due to lack of owner involvement.

Who is the Core?: Can you really build long-term around Nash, Allen, and Amare? And Allen's scoring is down to about 15 points. Redd and Jamison seem to be keepers, but are on the wrong side of 30, and have injury histories (though Jamison has been pretty healthy since his first couple years in the league). Bogut and Deng are both young, and still have a lot of upside, despite being nicked up thus far in their careers... lots of injury-related questions here.

The Deadweight: There needs to some editing of the roster. You can't really play TJ Ford or Z right now, nor do they have trade value. DeRozan and Courtney Lee have some upside, but you can't leverage that right now, since they're just not putting up the numbers.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: Need to get younger and have less exposure to injury risk. You've got another 2 years to milk out of Nash, maybe 3 out of Allen and Jamison. The problem is that the rest of the lineup isn't good enough to compete. Probably need to keep the core of Deng, Bogut, and Amare.

Recommended Moves: Get quality in return for Jamison, Ray Allen, and Michael Redd, particularly young, quality guards. Ride Nash for the next 2 years, since he'll stabilize your AST numbers, and hope that he'll play for a couple years after that. Build on Nash, Amare, Deng, and Bogut, and the guards that you trade for, with the goal of having 7 legit keepers at the end of this year, with 2 guards to put around Nash. This team probably can built to compete faster than Floor Burns or the Bricks, but isn't nearly as likely as Love T'Wolves to threaten the UPL powers-that-be.