So, the O.N. Thugs and Westy's Ballers have completed a trade. The O.N. Thugs' response? That it was an odd feeling, like walking into a pawn shop in an alternate universe that had reasonable items on the shelves. They went on to note that perhaps the only thing stranger would be to complete a trade with C-Lauff. Westy's response? That C-Lauff would never complete a trade with a competitive team. Ouch. C-Lauff's response? He thought it was a strange trade, that the O.N. Thugs would win the trade this year, but that the jury would be out for the future.
I don't know how strange it is. Obviously, for a team that's in title contention, winning a given trade for that year is a must, unless there's a young superstar involved (think Blake Griffin or something like that). And doing so without gutting the keeper base generally makes the trade a win. As for a rebuilding team, the goal is to get value for older veterans that are borderline keepers, to get younger, and to get likely multiple-year keepers. I think that both teams got what they wanted.
The trade basically went like this. Westy wanted Conley, as an emerging top 10-12 PG, and top 50 player, and someone who the "advanced stats" have always loved. Remember, how he drafted Conley last year, instead of Tyreke Evans? And then he dropped Conley, only to have him start playing well for the O.N. Thugs? And then let Conley slide to the O.N. Thugs in the 4th round of the draft this year, only to have him emerge with a career year? Well, the theory is that Westy wanted to correct that. Given that the O.N. Thugs actually had Conley as their 3rd PG, this was a distinct possibility. The initial offer from Westy was for some bland bench players (think someone like Jamal Crawford, who we've talked about being a non-O.N. Thugs sort of guy here before), which wasn't to the O.N. Thugs liking.
The O.N. Thugs responded with an offer for Al Jefferson in a 1-for-1, but noted that they'd also go for Millsap.
Player A: .453/.767, 15.1 PTS, 1.0 3PM, 7.0 AST, 3.1 REB, 2.1 STL, 2.547 A/TO
Player B: .469/.851, 16.5, 8.8 REB, 2.0 OREB, 1.8 AST, 0.5 STL, 1.7 BLK, 1.438 A/TO
Player C: .550/.725, 17.9 PTS, 8.1 REB, 2.2 OREB, 2.4 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.8 BLK, 1.771 A/TO
The logic was that Conley (Player A) and Jefferson (Player B) had similar scoring, similar percentages, and that Millsap (Player C) was close enough to Jefferson, though he didn't qualify at C. Conely is a plus STL, AST and A/TO guy, and gives you some 3PM. The Thugs needed REB, OREB, BLK, and wanted some FG% in return, if they were going to move Conley.
As a total aside, there was also a secret, illogical reason for the request for Jefferson/Millsap. The O.N. Thugs wanted to have a 2nd good Jazz player on their roster so that they could enjoy watching Jazz games more (since the Jazz have become one of the Thugs' favorite real-life teams, now that D-Will is out there). In the original UPL Keeper Draft, the O.N. Thugs even chose Carlos Boozer over Dwight Howard for the reason that watching D-Will/Boozer for the next few years would be more fun/time-efficient. Yeah. Sometimes, trades work like that.
Westy balked at the 1 for 1, and countered with an improvement from his initial offer that included Tyson Chandler, but still was an awkward 2-for 1 deal for the O.N. Thugs' roster to take, and wasn't enough value to overwhelm the roster makeup.
The O.N. Thugs were intrigued at the possibility of reacquiring Chandler, a valuable part of O.N. Thugs championships in years past, and offered Cousins for Chandler, as a youth for veteran help now, which seems to be a fair deal, based on UPL moves in the past.
It seemed that Westy was OK with the Cousins/Chandler move, but it became clear that Westy still wanted Conley. Last last night, the offer of Cousins for Chandler, plus Conley for Millsap, plus Gallinari for Pierce was offered. If you put together the events from earlier in the negotiations (Westy's refusal to move Millsap for Conley; Cousins for Chandler seeming like a reasonable trade), the conclusion is that Gallinari has more value that Pierce. And if you look at the stats, both have awfully similar stats this year:
Player A: .400/.909, 15.3 PTS, 2.0 3PM, 4.9 REB, 0.9 OREB, 1.7 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.5 BLK, 2.048 A/TO
Player B: .497/.843, 18 PTS, 1.1 3PM, 4.7 REB, 0.3 OREB, 2.7 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.8 BLK, 1.575 A/TO
The key issue is that Gallinari's 11 years younger (and is Player A, above). In fact, across the entire trade, Westy picks up Conley (23), Gallinari (22), and Cousins (20), whereas the O.N. Thugs get Millsap (25), Chandler (30), and Pierce (33).
Of course, this is just the start of trading season. As teams figure out if they're rebuilding (i.e., Sparty) or contending (SMDB), a little more certainty will emerge. And somehow, the O.N. Thugs will keep finding ways to improve their team to make their annual late-season run at the title.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
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5 comments:
Not shockingly, that's basically exactly how it went down.
Let's hope DG does not disappoint, especially if (when) he's traded to Denver. Obviously I have to think DG has more value next year than PP.
What can I say? I give my readers my interpretation of the truth. You have to admit, the coverage that we get in the UPL is actually pretty cool, when the O.N. Thugs are involved. I enjoy revealing some of my trade secrets, as it, in theory leads to a more interesting game.
I enjoy it as well.
So along that vein, and as I'm curious, when you saw the final offer come through, how quickly did you click accept? Were you racing to immediately do it? Did you take some time to contemplate? Did you immediately think you would accept, or was there any part of you that thought about not doing it?
I saw the trade, and the initial instinct was to immediate click "accept." This was the forward thinking play. Conley/Gallinari are my 8th and 9th players on the keeper list, in some order. Millsap jumps the line and becomes a clear 8th keeper on my roster (D-Will and Westbrook give me a lot of flexibility). So in that sense, I probably needed to make this play, so long as I wasn't killing my championship chances. But I never immediately accept a trade, unless it's a clear win for a 1-for-1. Everything else is complicated enough to warrant a further look.
I pieced together the story based on the information from earlier in the negotiations (just like what I posted). My thought was that Millsap/Chandler for Conley/Cousins was a fair trade. So, I had to think about Gallinari and Pierce. While I don't believe that I'll keep Pierce, I get some insurance with keeper-level depth. And he definitely has trade value, as well.
As for Gallinari, I'm a Knicks guy, and having a Knick on my team is a good thing. But the simplest thing for me is understanding that the career arc doesn't apply as much from my end here, since Millsap would be the preferred keeper. So, the focus is on this year and Gallinari as a piece to a championship team.
This let me simplify the analysis to what would happen if Melo was traded for DG or not. If not, the performance is close enough (basically, I'm giving up about 45 3PM from here on out) to make the Millsap trade happen. If he was traded, he could go nuts for a bad Denver team. Knowing that was the case, I'd pass on the trade, and figure out my keeper status later (or swing an off-season trade). But there's also a chance that he gets buried in a unstructured offensive system with a down-trending PG (or worse, if Billups gets traded). So, there was enough downside variance for me let you take the high risk/reward side of the trade.
Now, from your end the upside of Gallinari factors into the equation big time. But it was much less of a factor on my end, as he wasn't a guaranteed keeper.
I'd say that this is the classic sort of youth for veteran talent trade that more teams should be trying to pull off. Best way to rebuild? Get the 3rd PG or 3rd C or players #9 through #12 from loaded teams who are making championship runs. Best way to make championship runs? Figure out the stats you need, and get them early by moving non-crucial starters and bench players. You can definitely make some win-win scenarios.
Of course, when you illogical, you run into situations where a lack of trading can really hurt you. Two situations from baseball last year that come to mind were Jeff's handling of Billy Wagner, and C-Lauff hanging on to three 2B in baseball last year without getting value, before finally dropping Hill. I'd call both of those outcomes disastrous.
buried in a unstructured offensive system with a down-trending PG (or worse, if Billups gets traded).
The only thing I want to say is that Ty Lawson is making Billups expendable, and he is probably an upgrade at this point.
I know it would never happen, but what if Denver pulled off the Melo deal and then moved Billups to...............Atlanta. Ha, perfect fit.
Anyway, just wanted to talk some hoop for a sec there.
Nice trade for both teams.
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