The season just started and people are ready to kill me.
I don't necessarily blame them. I mean, who trades off a first round pick before the year even starts?
The Jimmy Dix Longballs.
While a certain level of doubt might always exist during a trade, what surprised me was finding out that Chairman had his own doubts about the offer. My doubt came about once I admitted that I let a homeristic man-crush with a pitching upgrade on the side sway me into trading off one of the most powerful and effective hitters of the decade.
It was a balance of risk and reward - I could be getting two average guys for a hero, but the hero's arm might fall off at any point in the season. I chose to go for reliability at lower reward than a higher risk / higher reward situation. Or, as illustrated using their 2007 stats:
| H/AB | AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG | |
| Pujols | 185/565 | 0.327 | 99 | 32 | 103 | 2 | 0.429 | 0.568 |
| Konerko | 142/549 | 0.258 | 71 | 31 | 90 | 0 | 0.351 | 0.49 |
| Loss | 0.069 | 28 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 0.078 | 0.078 | |
IP | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP | ||
| Myers | 68.2 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 83 | 4.33 | 1.28 |
I still cringe a little bit whenever I look at the disparity of runs and on base percentage between Konerko and Pujols. But seeing the extra 83 strikeouts (at a rate of 1.227 K's / IP) and potential for wins and saves I felt a little better. If Myers were to become the closer for Philly - which he might be again after a medicre opening day start that was blown up by Tom Gordon - then the value of this trade leans in my favor. Was the numbers loss worth it?
It will always depend on Pujols. If his arm falls off then this becomes the trade of the year for just about everyone other than the ON Thugs.
-CJ
-CJ
2 comments:
Not a bad analysis, actually.
Pujols will be a stud if healthy. That's easy.
My main quibble is that you should be looking at Myers as a starting pitchers, not as a closer. You can average his 2005 and 2006 stats as a starter to get a ballpark estimate for his 2008 stats. 2007 was an oddball year for him
I would suggest that a better view of Konerko is the average of his last 4 seasons, with 2007 weighted more heavily. He's 32 this year, so his numbers will stay relatively close to the last few years.
To be thorough, you want to look at things a few different ways. Most recent data matters. So do career numbers. So does age. And to a lesser extent, so does teammates (though for R and RBI, teammates matter a lot - folks like Rob Neyer call R and RBI a team stat).
Thanks for the input...
I wouldn't say that I'm working from a disadvantage but I stopped following baseball on any kind of meaningful basis some time in the mid-1990's and only picked it up after joining the UPL league last year.
While not debilitating, this rules out a first-hand historical view on the performance of many of these players and turns me into a stat monkey - and I'm not a math guy. I'm still pleased with the addition of Myers to my rotation and I'll run with my garbage closers until something better comes along.
And yes, the homer-ism continues with the addition of Crede, although he might be relegated to Beltre's backup. We'll see.
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