The Metagame

So, back in the day, I used to play Magic: The Gathering, a card game where you would design your "deck" by customizing a deck of of 60 cards, in a structured game. The thing was, there were many thousdands of different cards available, so there were many different ways to put together successful decks. So, if you were going to play in a tournament, one of the major considerations was the metagame, or consideration of how other people were going to design their decks (based on what was popular at the time). Understanding what people were going to do, helped you immensely, since you could design a deck that may be sub-optimal against one of many standard archetypes, but could be dominating against the most popular archetype.

For example, in Rock, Paper, Scissors (or rochambeau), assuming no knowledge, your best strategy would be to throw randomly, since there would be no chance of your opponent picking up a pattern. However, if you knew that 90% of your opponents would throw Rock, then you would be insane to stick with your random throws. Instead, you would be throwing Paper lik there was no tomorrow. This information, outside the structure of the game, is a part of the metagame.

Now, in fantasy sports, I definitely apply some aspects of metagaming into how I design my teams. It's a little different, since you don't see nearly as much variation of team composition, as you would in Magic, so the value of knowing what people are going to to isn't quite as high. And more importantly, it's important to consider the individuals involved.

The first place that the metagame matters is in the UPL is in the draft room. The first rule should be obvious. Figure out who's auto-drafting based on Yahoo! rankings. This is the single most important aspect of drafting in online drafts where not everyone is there (like in the UPL). So think of it this way. If you were the only live drafter in a draft, with everyone else auto-drafting, then you know exactly what players will be available for you. This is a huge advantage, as you turn a very dynamic problem, with 12 individuals, all acting independently, into a very static problem, with 1 individual operating in a known environment. We've never had a draft with only 1 liver person, but we have had scenarios with multiple auto-drafters. A dream scenario for me would be something like drafting 8th, and having teams 9, 10, 11, and 12 all on auto-draft. In this scenario, I know with some precision exactly which 8 players are coming off the board before I draft again (obviously, this only works in one direction on the S curve, but you get the idea).

Now, the next level is to understand tendencies of the individuals that are drafting. If you've been playing for a while you have some idea of the players that each of your competitors likes. You could just target those players, to annoy your opponent, but that may not be the best way of doing it, since you could be just killing both of your teams. But, understanding these tendencies helps. How do you know these things?

First of all, geography matters. If you're playing with a bunch of Chicago Cubs fans, the you should know some things. You won't see a ton of difference in the established stars. Sure, someone may jump a few picks to make sure that they get, say, Zambrano or D-Lee on their team. But that's a relatively small difference, maybe half a round. Where it matters more is with the later rounds. You may see folks jump on guys like Soto, DeRosa, Theriot, etc. much earlier than you would expect in a completely unbiased draft. So, if you're high on Soto, you may need to pull the trigger on him earlier, if you are in a league with a couple Cubs fans.

The other thing is for owner-player tendencies. This year, I had Greg drafting right after me (I was 5th, he was 6th), I knew that Greg was high on Joe Nathan. So this year, as we were drafting, the 5th round rolls around, and I knew that I had to get Joe Nathan, since there was no chance that he was going to make it back to me in the 6th, primarily because my guess was that Greg was going to take him either right after me in the 5th, or right before me in the 6th, if he was still available. Similarly, since Greg is also a Reds fan, I had to roll w/ Adam Dunn in the 3rd with the 29th pick, rather than risk waiting for him to come back in the 4th, with the 44th pick, since Greg may have taken him at 30, and would have gotten him for sure at 43. So, even though Dunn was going, on average at the 45th pick, I strongly doubt that he would've gotten back to me. And just as interestingly, if you would have known me, then you would have known that I was going to take Dunn over Manny (who went off at 31), because I'm a Reds fan. Season after season, you see some players end up with the same teams. Knowing these tendencies helps you predict who will and won't be available.

You also run into owner-style tendencies. Year after year, you see some owners build the same type of team. Knowing this tendency helps, but it's difficult to realy take advantage of, and isn't quite as useful, overall, I don't think. Especially when you can pretty easily switch gears. Normally, I build my team around high OPS mashers. The ability to run is not required. I'll fill in a few closers, and then hope for the best out of my starting pitching. A couple years ago, I decided that starting pitchers were undervalued, and I came out drafting pitcher, pitcher, pitcher, and pretty much shocked the UPL regulars (well, C-Lauff, at least). Also tied in here is the style with which people draft. You see some guys really ignore pre-ranks, and what everyone else is doing, and draft who they like. You also see people who feel like they must respond to the immediate flow of the draft (like participating in a run on, say, closers). Which is best? I think that you need to do both. You need to target a few guys, but you also have to project out what a run on a certain position or stat category will do to you. I'm more of the former. I tend to ignore runs on positions (this year, I didn't even draft a catcher, after I didn't get the ones that I wanted), figuring that I'd just wait until I got a DL slot, and pick up Ryan Doumit (who has been awesome for an undrafted starting player).

In any case, when you combine metagame considerations with the mathematics of victory, you will have a leg up on the rest of your league.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)