Old Balls

Okay. So, I get mocked for trotting old players out there year after year in baseball. This year isn't as bad as usual. I've still got Griffey and Pedro on my team, and Troy Glaus turns 32 this year. But in the last couple years, I've had Griffey, Barry Bonds, Randy Johnson, Frank Thomas, Lou Brock, and Satchel Paige all put up good numbers for me.

Some folks like to take chances on rookies early in the draft, and will not draft old players. I've got a counter argument for the really old players (the guys who are 36, 37, 38+).

To start off, ask yourself who is likely to still be playing at that age? Really skilled players. The lesser players would have been run out of the league long ago. I believe in the overall statistics that show the normal career arc takes players skill upward until the age or 27/28, plateaus them until 32/33, starts them downward until 35, and then sends them off the cliff. Sometimes the plateau a bit shorter, and the cliff may come faster, or other small changes will come into play. But most players follow this sort of arc.

Obviously, HGH and the like can change things around (Brady Anderson, Luis Gonzalez, and Bret Boone are some examples of drastic 1-year spikes). But even w/out chemical help, there is a reasonable logic that says that players who are still starting in their late 30's are worth drafting. Superstars are outliers, and it's likely that they have different career arcs.

In general, power, at the plate and on the mound seems to stay with some stars.

Obviously, Bonds has had a very different career arc. And if you look at Griffey, his injuries have been traumatic, not degenerative. So if he recovers, he comes back close to normal. Degenerative conditions (bad knees, bad back, etc.) stay with you in the day-to-day, and don't go away. But freak injuries (broken bones, ligament damage, etc.) can be recovered from with rehab, and players can come back as good as ever. Gary Sheffield still has his power at 39. Manny turns 36 this year, and has looked awesome, and looks like he could do this for the next 10 years.

Also, I'm convinced that there is a class of power pitchers that have a different career arc. Look at Unit, Schilling, and to some extent Smoltz. They learn to harness their stuff, and maybe recover from a Tommy John surgery, until they're about 28, and then they put things together (and keep throwing heat), and can plateau for a long time, and only when they hit their upper 30's, do they start to lose the heat, and go more with the forkball/splitter.

So what does this mean? I think that elite power hitters and power pitchers can be relied on later in their careers. I would be much more careful on players who relied on their agility or pure skill. Some exceptions that come to mind include Tony Gwynn, who could still slap singles all over the place, and Paul Molitor, who was still hitting very well at the end of this career. But guys like Wade Boggs, Robbie Alomar, and Ryne Sandberg definitely had the cliff pop up on them. So did slightly lesser players like Carlos Baerga. These were all guys who relied on skill at the plate. Big boppers who had patience at the plate seem to be able to stretch out the career arc longer.

But, that said, I'd also be careful with guys who have degenerative conditions. Big Papi comes to mind. He could be like Mo Vaughn, whose injuries (plus weight) just caught up to him abruptly. Mark McGwire had a similar issue (even w/out the steroid accusations). Juan Gonzalez had steroid speculation, as well as a bad back. Albert Belle had the back issue, as well. Those issues never really get better, particularly for position players, who need to be out there every day. Pitchers can get around the back issues a little more easily.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)