Take a look at these numbers:
| Scenario | Runs | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG |
| Expect-Konerko | 962 | 250 | 979 | 50 | 0.378 | 0.502 |
| Low - Konerko | 862 | 234 | 878 | 35 | 0.366 | 0.482 |
| High - Konerko | 1012 | 264 | 1020 | 85 | 0.384 | 0.512 |
| Expect - Pujols | 990 | 258 | 992 | 50 | 0.383 | 0.510 |
| Low - Pujols | 890 | 235 | 891 | 35 | 0.371 | 0.490 |
| High - Pujols | 1045 | 275 | 1070 | 85 | 0.389 | 0.520 |
| 2007 2nd | 1008 | 237 | 1003 | 217 | 0.366 | 0.482 |
| 2007 Median | 897 | 220 | 875 | 115 | 0.359 | 0.472 |
| 2008 Leader | 968 | 236 | 963 | 213 | 0.364 | 0.481 |
| 2008 Median | 843 | 207 | 823 | 109 | 0.355 | 0.465 |
Note that 2008 Leader and Median stats are discounted because of the increase from 12 teams, from 11 in 2007.
What you'll notice is that my team is slow. Real slow. I probably need to address that issue at some point. I'm not stealing any bases, w/ or w/out Pujols.
But more important to this discussion, you'll notice is that w/ Konerko, I was planning on doing pretty well on offense. The lines for expected values represent slightly conservative expectations. But the net result is that my team can mash, which is expected when you have a bunch of high-OBP power hitters (e.g., Teixeira, Utley, Aramis Ramirez, Dunn, Griffey, Burrell, and Konerko/Pujols). Additionally, my lineup also has a nice lefty/righty platoon situation with Chris Duncan and Troy Glaus, both playing for the Cards. So my projects really could be a little more aggressive, since those two are on the same team, I can maximize that platoon. And I've still got lottery tickets in Jason Giambi and Nick Johnson (more slow, high OBP, power sorts).
Now, my pitching is a completely different story. My bullpen should be good. I've got 2 legit closers in Joe Nathan and Francisco Cordero, and 2 potentially very good ones (depending on injury) in B.J. Ryan and Brad Lidge. You roll the dice there, anyway. But the problem is that my starting pitching is problematic.
My one reliable starter is Harang. After that? Pedro coming off injury (and leaving due to injury yesterday). Oliver Perez, who has had 2 good seasons and 3 terrible ones that took him out of the majors. Andrew Miller and the new look, 70-win Marlins. Edison Volquez, a 25-year old rookie pitching in one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. And some dude named Jair Jurrens (who doesn't even have a picture on the Yahoo! website - so I have no clue what he looks like). I've already fired Barry Zito. If you have Brett Myers at his 05/06 average as a starter, you expect something like 13-8, 200K in 210 IP, 3.81 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. That would stabilize my starting pitching quite a bit, and let me be more selective about when I started my unproven pitchers.
Overall, I think that I solidified my offense a little bit, but left my pitching staff in a somewhat precarious position. But, what I explained to C-Lauff was that I'd always have a nagging feeling if I turned down this trade, that I'd be afraid of being the Portland Trail Blazers passing on MJ because they already had Clyde Drexler...
...which leaves me wondering whether Jair Jurrens is black, white, brown, yellow, blue, or green.
-Chairman, aka O.N. Thugs
3 comments:
I saw Jarr (or however you spell his name) on ESPN and he is brown, for sure.
Would you call it more of a dark coffee or more of a lighter, say, cappuccino. Or maybe somewhere in between, like a mocha latte?
This will be an interesting trade to re-visit at season's end. My feeling is that while Konerko might put up better numbers than in 2007, Myers won't match his 2006 season.
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