Kiss of Death

I was looking through some old UPL Blog archives. Okay, that's not entirely true. I was going back to put labels on old postings because I'm feeling a little OCD. But in any case, I came across this gem of a post.

Basically, look at what I wrote back in July:

"This is why the most successful team in UPL Football prefers to draft Peyton Manning first...
Why? Think of it this way. Sure, you know that there probably will be 2 or 3 QB's that will perform equal to Peyton. Are you sure who it will be? Do you want to gamble a 3rd or 4th round pick on Big Ben (last year, great bet - 2 seasons ago, not so much)? How about Brett Favre (last year, great bet - 2 season ago, not so much)? Carson Palmer (probably one of the more sure things, actually)? Tom Brady (also puts up good numbers in the UPL, since we value accuracy)? Matt Hasselback? Marc Bulger? Derek Anderson? I don't know. What's the value of that certainty? And more importantly, do you want to entrust a high pick on that chance? Not saying that this is the right strategy, but this is the mindset that you probably see with folks who draft Peyton in the first round. And in the UPL, that has been a historically strong strategy."

As I read through the list of names that I threw in there, all I can think is, "Yikes." Let's see. Brett, still standing in NY, but stats are definitely off, though is is currently #8 in QB points this season. But after that? Big Ben is 21st. And everyone else I listed has been hurt or benched. These were all guys who were Pro Bowl players, recently, I believe. It's like every person I named was cursed. Brady - played for less than a quarter. Carson - missed the last 4 games, and may be out for the season. Hasselbeck - injured all season. Bulger - benched/terrible this year. Derek Anderson - bad numbers and benched. Big Ben - bad numbers/hurt.

More to the point, the top 2 QB's this year so far are Kurt Warner and Drew Brees, and then there's a gap to #3 and #4 (Jay Cutler and Phillip Rivers), and then another gap to #5-7 (Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb, and Peyton Manning).

Of that group, Brees figured to be pretty good. And McNabb has been historically good. Rivers would've probably been a solid choice before the season. Warner would've been a big risk as your lead QB. Ditto for Cutler and Rodgers. Even if you had good feelings about them, you probably take them as your 2nd QB.

Before the season, if you take the QB's I listed (Big Ben, Favre, Palmer, Brady, Hasselbeck, Bulger, and Derek Anderson), and put them on a list with Cutler, Rivers, Warner, Brees, McNabb, and Aaron Rodgers, and then chose at random, you'd basically have 7 good seasons and 6 bricks. That's a lot of risk at a position where you need points. And if you look at the order in which the top 12 QB's were drafted in the UPL this year:

Brady - Peyton - Romo - Brees - Carson - Derek Anderson - Big Ben - Hasselbeck - McNabb - Garrard - Schaub - Bulger.

You see that only 3 of those 12 (Peyton, Brees, McNabb) have been good, Garrad has been reasonable, and Romo/Schaub have been good when healthy (and will be back). My original post wasn't meant to predict doom for all of those QB's. In fact, I wrote the post back in July, expecting that about most of the QB's that I listed would be studs, but that you weren't sure who they were going to be. But I ended up souding a little prophetic when talking about as close to a sure thing as you can get at the QB spot, in Peyton Manning, who I managed to draft.

Don't get me wrong. My team's got some issues this year, but I'm really glad to have a sure thing like Peyton as my QB (particularly since he was a 2nd rounder this year). In fact, I'm so glad to have him that I've been starting him over Kurt Warner, the highest point scorer in fantasy. Go figure. But what's killing me is this Joseph Addai character, whoever the hell he is, and the corpse of Marvin Harrison. But I have a suspicion that the Colts will get things in order, and make a run, just in time for the UPL playoffs...

Update, 11/18 - It appears that Gregg Easterbrook agrees: "As for the Colts, Peyton Manning is hot, Joseph Addai and Marvin Harrison are back -- I'd look out for these guys."

Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)