Down the Stretch...

So, it's not exactly looking great on the scoreboard for the O.N. Thugs right now:

Rank		Team	Points	Pts Change	Waiver	Moves
1.		IamJabrone	115.5	0	8	68
2.		O.N. Thugs	110.5	0.5	12	82
3.		IStillSuckCurveballs	107	0	9	20
4.		TheJimmyDixLongballs	92.5	-3.5	7	38
5.		Milwaukee Whiffers	89	0	4	22
6.		'90 Reds	88	3	2	54
7.		Black Sox	64	0	6	28
8.		Phatsnapper	62	1.5	1	9
9.		Westy's Slugs	57	-1	11	78
10.		Muddy Mud Skippers	55.5	-0.5	3	12
10.		Cheeseheads	55.5	-0.5	5	25
12.		Benver Droncos	39.5	0.5	10	45

Here's the breakdown. With two days left in the season, I have to close out 5 points on the Jabrones. However, the 5 points aren't the toughest 5 points to net, since there are a lot of categories up for grabs. Each of these scenarios nets a point for me, with some ballpark odds on any of them happening:

-Whiffers make up 15 runs on Jabrone (100 to 1 shot)
-I make up 13 runs on ISSC (100 to 1)
-Black Sox make up 3 HR on Jabrone (6 to 1)
-I make up 7 RBI on Westy (3 to 1)
-I make up 3 SB on Westy (5 to 1)
-I make up 4 SB on Benver (6 to 1, but very correlated to above)
-Whiffers make up .002 in OBP on Jabrone (6 to 1)
-I make up 3 W on Jabrone (even - I'm loading up on starters this weekend)
-I make up 6 W on Westy (12 to 1)
-I make up 3 K on Jabrone (1 to 4)
-I make up 16K on JimmyDix (2 to 1)
-I make up 0.11 in ERA on ISSC (75 to 1)
-Whiffers make up 0.10 ERA on Jabrone (75 to 1)
-I make up 0.01 in WHIP on Benver (3 to 1)

Plus, I'm tied with JimmyDix in WHIP (even). And there are a couple points that the Jabrones can get (2 SV back from Cheeseheads, .003 SLG back from Whiffers and '90 Reds).

Legitimately, I have a shot. Figure that I'm about 40-60 to get my W's on Jabrones (2 point swing) and get my K's on Jabrones (another 2 points swing). That's 40-60 on 4 points, which leaves me 1 short. If I miss on the 4 points, this is all moot, but if I get the 4, then I've still got to get another point. If I get the 4 points, then I'm probably 2 to 1 to get a point from WHIP, 2 to 1 to get another point in K from JimmyDix, 3 to 1 to get a point in RBI from Westy, but I only need one of those to come through. So put it all together, and I'm giving myself around a 1 in 6 chance to tie, and a 1 in 12 chance to win.

So, the long and the short of it is, I need some luck if we're going to hunt for a Roland Slam this time year. Maybe I can invoke my secret commissioner powers to somehow bench certain team's hitters and pitchers the last couple days :-)

Update, 11:15pm, Saturday: Never mind. Bloody Saturday, I suppose we can call it. 4 starters. 2 L's, 2 ND's. All pretty much got lit. Oh well. Get 'em next year, I suppose.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)