Sadly, this probably won't last (sad, because my team has gotten off to a reasonable start). Last year, team ERA's ranged from 3.38 to 4.46, and WHIP's ranged from 1.21 to 1.39. In 2007, ERA's ranged from 3.43 to 4.20. In fact, if you look at the history of the UPL, since the change to the roto format, ERA's have ranged from 3.23 to 4.72. And the range of WHIP's have been from 1.20 to 1.45.
I've talked before about how important it is to have clear idea of what it will take to win, in terms of total points. I've also talked about the usefulness of having projections for your team as you start a season. I think that this post is somewhat similar to both of the prior posts that I've made. Essentially, having a historical perspective of what the median and maximum of each stat category is pretty useful (the minimum isn't quite as useful since some teams will punt on a particular stat category). This gives you an idea of where your team will likely fall, and gives you a start point for evaluation of your team.
So what do historical numbers look like in the UPL? Take a look:
| Historical Values | ||||
| Best | Avg Max | Avg Mid | % Move | |
| R | 1031 | 975 | 867 | 12.4% |
| HR | 294 | 273 | 223 | 22.5% |
| RBI | 1003 | 953 | 846 | 12.7% |
| SB | 220 | 173 | 113 | 52.8% |
| OBP | 0.391 | 0.377 | 0.355 | 6.0% |
| SLG | 0.528 | 0.505 | 0.472 | 7.0% |
| W | 108 | 96 | 80 | 20.8% |
| L | 36 | 49 | 68 | 27.3% |
| SV | 160 | 145 | 79 | 83.9% |
| K | 1319 | 1235.5 | 999 | 23.7% |
| ERA | 3.23 | 3.45 | 3.94 | 12.5% |
| WHIP | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.29 | 6.2% |
What does this table mean? Well, the Best column is the all time best for any of these stats. The Avg Max column is the average maximum score, across all seasons. And the Avg Mid column is the average median score, across all seasons. Basically, if you want to finish in the top half of any category, you will probably need to get more than the Avg Mid value. Of course, there are some things to consider - the number of teams in the UPL hasn't always been the same (ranging from 11 to 14). And the UPL has seen some historically silly numbers (that may or may not have been performance enhanced).
This also helps you out when you look at the difference between the median and the maximum scores for each category. For example, if you look at WHIP, a shift in 0.08 takes you from the middle of the pack to the max. However, with ERA, you'll need to improve by about 0.50 to go from the middle to the top. This suggests that extra efforts in WHIP will probably give you more of a bump in the standings than ERA. Now, this is a bit of a crude analysis - to really get a picture of what improvements in a given category will do for you in the standings needs something a little finer. But you get the idea. The % Move category tells you a little more, specifically, how much of a change in each category (based on the median value) it will take to move to the top. Obviously, this isn't perfect, but it gives you a little better picture for how much of a shift in each category you need to really make a difference.
In any case, the big idea is that baseball is a marathon. Being in first place one day in doesn't really guarantee success. That is, unless it happens to be the O.N. Thugs who are in first place...
| Rank | Team | Points | Pts Change | Waiver | Moves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | O.N. Thugs | 101.5 | 4 | 5 | 8 | |
| 2. | Cheeseheads | 97.5 | -8 | 8 | 5 | |
| 3. | Muddy Mush Heads | 88 | -0.5 | 4 | 4 | |
| 4. | Phatsnapper | 87 | -8.5 | 10 | 7 | |
| 5. | Hats for Bats | 84.5 | -4 | 11 | 5 | |
| 6. | '90 Reds | 81 | -1.5 | 2 | 4 | |
| 7. | Black Sox | 75 | -2.5 | 6 | 2 | |
| 8. | IamJabrone | 74.5 | 9 | 9 | 7 | |
| 9. | IStillSuckCurveballs | 72 | 14.5 | 1 | 2 | |
| 10. | Benver Droncos | 66 | -1.5 | 12 | 6 | |
| 11. | TheJimmyDixLongballs | 59 | -14 | 3 | 3 | |
| 12. | Westy's Sluggers | 50 | 13 | 7 | 4 |
...which they are. So maybe all of this is moot.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
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