Thursday, April 9, 2009

Endgame: Down to the Buzzer, Part II

And down the stretch they come.

Here's the current standings:

Rk
Team
FG%
FT%
3PTM
PTS
OREB
REB
AST
ST
BLK
A/T
Total
1 European Sellout 8 4 9 10 5.5 5 10 11 9 9 80.5
2 O.N. Thugs 6 8 4 9 11 7 8 6 8 7 74
2 Sparty Rules 1 11 11 5 2 11 11 5 6 11 74
4 IamJabrone 10 3 3 11 9 10 5 10 7 3 71
5 Westy's FadinBallers 9 7 5 7 5.5 9 9 9 4 5.5 70
6 Dribbling Balls 3.5 1 7 6 7 6 7 8 11 8 64.5
7 chowtime 7 10 8 8 3 3 6 3 5 10 63
8 Floor burns 3.5 6 6 4 10 8 3 4 10 2 56.5
9 Eddy's Crusty Towels 2 2 10 3 4 2 4 7 3 5.5 42.5
10 Love Timberwolves 11 9 1 2 8 4 1 2 2 1 41
11 Phatsnapper 5 5 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 4 23

And here are the current stats:

Rk
Team
GP
FG%
FT%
3PTM
PTS
OREB
REB
AST
ST
BLK
A/T
1 European Sellout 814 0.472 0.772 844 13377 1110 4664 2963 909 587 1.71
2 O.N. Thugs 798 0.468 0.799 573 13362 1420 4832 2758 786 560 1.62
2 Sparty Rules 789 0.462 0.827 940 11924 1003 5112 3095 777 522 1.97
4 IamJabrone 794 0.474 0.76 533 13716 1350 4970 2491 908 555 1.46
5 Westy's FadinBallers 791 0.473 0.791 600 12668 1110 4943 2784 869 503 1.61
6 Dribbling Balls 771 0.466 0.752 760 12090 1150 4755 2646 852 612 1.69
7 chowtime 788 0.471 0.819 776 13297 1093 4588 2632 733 511 1.77
8 Floor burns 817 0.466 0.789 750 11764 1402 4908 2243 755 601 1.43
9 Eddy's Crusty Towels 784 0.463 0.756 910 11479 1109 4393 2366 793 455 1.61
10 Love Timberwolves 679 0.48 0.803 378 11354 1257 4616 2040 663 421 1.39
11 Phatsnapper 631 0.467 0.788 523 9962 919 3781 2102 610 408 1.53

Things are starting to solidify, in terms of how the UPL Basketball season will finish up.

As predicted, it's looking like a 3 team race:

The Euro's are starting to fade a little bit. Currently, they're at 80.5 points. Using the same estimates as we did before, it looks like they're going to lose 6.5 points from the counting stats (2 in PTS, 1.5 in OREB, 2 in REB, 1 in ST) , and could go anywhere from -1 to +2 in FG%. A safe estimate is that they finish with 74.5 points, though my best guess is that 75 is more likely than 74.

Sparty looks awfully stable right now. Maybe 1 point in ST (O.N. Thugs) and Maybe 1 point in FG% (Eddy's). It's looking like maybe 75 points. Not much higher, but any lower than 74, from what I'm seeing.

So the biggest question mark is with the O.N. Thugs. I'll definitely get 1 point in PTS (Euro's), I'll also get 1 point in REB (Floor Burns). That puts me at 76. However, there's work left to do. I need to hold off Sparty in steals. If I do that, they that leaves Sparty at a max of 75, and likely only 74. At the same time, I've got an outside shot at getting 1 point in STL from Eddy's. Similarly, I've got a small chance of getting 1 point in AST from Westy and getting 1 point in BLK from Euro. If I manage to go nuts with steals and blocks down the stretch, then there's a good chance that I take home the gold. Of course, I need to hold off Chowtime in PTS, and both Westy and Eddy's in A/T.

So what does that all mean? I have no idea. My best guess is that I'm looking at 76 points. I think that I've got a fair shot at winning this, but there's definitely work left to be done.

All I know is that after spending most of the season in 9th place w/ C-Lauff, this is sort of fun.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

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