Free Trade (Dis)Agreements

The other day, we had a trade between Westy and Phatnsapper that was auto-vetoed. Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday for Joe Mauer, Jon Lester, and Elijah Dukes. Naturally, Phatsnapper wasn't happy about the auto-veto since he was getting Berkman and Holliday. And this has sparked some interesting discussion on the UPL message boards, which I'm going to archive over here in the UPL Blog. As the discussion continues, I'll update this post.

PHATSNAPPER'S POST:

really. auto veto. this is a keeper league right?

dukes is lights out when he is on the field and puts up sick numbers...just look at his production relative to the amount of at bats.

hes 25

mauer. best catcher in baseball bar none.
also like 28

and lester who was lights out last year
and since wins and losses is a category is inifinitely more valuable and is also 25

than king felix.

for an old lance berkman
and holliday who has done nothing outside of coors.

if anything I am giving up too much.



O.N. THUG'S REPLY:

Before we get into Phatsnapper's players, let's look at Berkman/Holliday, over their career, 162 games averages:

Berkman: .413/.559, 106.5R, 35.9HR, 113RBI, 8.5SB
Holliday: .386/.551, 110.3R, 29.4HR, 112.3RBI, 15.2SB

Let's just make sure that we see what we're dealing with. And now we'll debunk some statements.

STATEMENT 1: "dukes is lights out when he is on the field and puts up sick numbers"

Okay. Where shall we start? Let's look at his 162 game average:

Dukes: .362/.451, 90.9R, 28.0HR, 82.7RBI, 17.5 SB

Those numbers are pretty good. I mean, not nearly in the league of either Berkman or Holliday. But he'd probably be a solid 3rd OF, if you could guarantee 150 games. Not quite "lights out" or "sick." But solid, in a Raul Ibanez sort of way, with a little more speed and fewer RBI.

Ibanez' since 2001: .352/.483, 89.8R, 23.9HR, 103.6RBI, 3.8SB.

Of course, extrapolation of those numbers is a best guess, since his career has been less than one full season. On the other hand, Berkman and Holliday are based on at least 4 full seasons worth of performance.

I don't know, Rup, but this seems like a pretty bad way to start an argument. Let's make it worse. Dukes was an 18th round draft pick, whose Wikipedia entry has this excerpt:

"Dukes has been arrested at least three times for battery, and once for assault.[6] According to court records, he fathered at least five children with four women between 2003 and 2006.[6] On May 23, 2007 it was reported that his wife filed a restraining order after he threatened to kill her.[7] On June 12, a 17-year-old foster child who was living in the care of a relative of Dukes accused him of impregnating her.[8] Police said the sex was apparently consensual.[8] "

The most positive account in there was that it was only statutory rape, and not the real kind.

STATEMENT #2 "mauer. best catcher in baseball bar none."

Let's look at Mauer. We'll use a 140 game expected performance, based on career stats (since you lose games at C).

Mauer: .399/.457, 81.1R, 11HR, 75.1RBI, 7.5SB

The numbers are sort of underwhelming, unless you factor in his position. I don't know if you say that he's hands down the best C in baseball... Keeping w/ the 140 game projections, let's look at:

Martin: .371/.430, 78.7R, 13.5HR, 68.2RBI, 14.8SB

They're the same age, and basically the same player.

McCann: .358/.503, 59.8R, 21.0HR, 88.1RBI, 2.6SB

McCann's a year younger. Clearly more power.

It's not clear cut that any of these three is better than the other. I'm sure that Soto fans may have some comments. And if anything, Mauer seems to be the one who has the chronic injury issue. He's a good player. But he's not in the class of Berkman/Holliday, even in a keeper league.

STATEMENT #3: "and lester who was lights out last year and since wins and losses is a category is inifinitely more valuable and is also 25

than king felix"

I have to confess, that I'm not exactly sure what the King Felix reference is in regard to. If you're saying that Lester is infinitely more valuable than Felix... we'll, I don't know what to say, other than that you're probably the only one here who's overrating Felix:

Felix: 3.80 (very average) / 1.32 (below average), 8.04 K/9IP (very good for a starter).

Let's look at his career numbers, and expected stats (using 32 G and 200IP):

Lester: 3.96/1.41, 14.2W, 5.2L, 148.8K.

Once again, I suppose that can quibble about the term "lights out." His numbers from last year: 3.21 ERA (very good). A 1.27 WHIP (very average). And a 6.50 K/9IP (below average for the UPL). His career ERA and WHIP look bad... he does suffer relatively few losses, though. So that's good, I suppose.

So, Lester is a pitcher whose career numbers are bad, but he's trending upward (if you ignore how he's gotten smacked around so far this year).

STATEMENT #4: "if anything I am giving up too much."

Let's just say that you're not giving up too much. Not with the comments that I've already received, and the quick analysis I just ran through. And not when I get correspondence from your trade partner basically expecting this to get auto-vetoed.


PHATSNAPPER'S REPLY:

so if you put dukes up to holliday its basically the same player only...holliday doesnt play at coors anymore...uhh ohh..

then the berkman excuse is a joke. hes 35 or so and clearly on the tailend of his career so to expect him to put up with his career averages is a little ridiculous.

but as usual you skew the data to find an argument.

also dukes is off the field issues actually dont count in fantasy baseball last time i checked so i have no idea what that has anything to do with it.

and anyone that just goes with roland because he is gods gift without thinking for themselves is a joke.


O.N. THUG'S REPLY #1:

How in the world can you say that Dukes = Holliday? You can say that I'm skewing numbers (though 162 game projections based on career numbers are a pretty conservative projection, particularly when I use the same method for all players). But, I'm not just throwing out outlandish statements, with no facts attached.

Dukes' numbers are 139 games, scattered over 3 seasons. Holliday's numbers are established over 706 games. So, the stability of the projections are clearly in favor of Holliday.

As for Holliday away from Coors, let's look at his 162 game projection, based on his last two seasons' road stats (which is over 142 games, about the same as Dukes' career numbers):

Holliday (road '07-'08): .384/.486, 111.8R, 24.0HR, 95.8RBI, 28.5SB

As a reminder, here are Dukes' 162 game projection:

Dukes: .362/.451, 90.9R, 28.0HR, 82.7RBI, 17.5 SB

Dukes will probably lose .020 in OBP, .035 in SLG, be down about 20 R, 13 RBI, and 11SB. Of course he'll be up by 4 HR.

I'm not saying that Dukes is a bad player. And in fact, he should be trending upward, with more playing time. That assumes that he can be durable for 150 games (maybe - he's had injuries in the past), can stay in the lineup against righties (this seems pretty reasonable, actually). But at the same time, Holliday's road numbers have been trending upward for the last 4 seasons.

As for his off the field problems? Well, last I checked, rape/murder charges involve jail time, which could reduce playing time. I don't care if he's a mean person who insults grandmothers. It's a little more problematic when he may or may not be facing rape/murder charges.


O.N. THUG'S REPLY #2:

Berkman's 33 this season. Likely on the tail end of his prime, probably going to trend downward over the next 5 seasons.

The question isn't how the average player fares as they age. The more appropriate question is how do players of Berkman's caliber and health fare a they age?

I've talked about career arcs before - conventional wisdom is that hitters tend to improve until they hit 27, plateau until 33, and then decrease production until they fall off the cliff, generally around 36. This is particularly the case for players up the middle, with wear and tear from fielding.

But, what has happened over the last decade? Players are playing at high levels for longer, particularly the high OBP and power guys that you see at 1B, and DH. And when you see players fall off the cliff, it's due to injury. They're the ones who have chronic injuries catch up (think Mo Vaughn, Albert Belle, Jeff Bagwell, etc.). The guys who are healthy keep on producing. Obviously, Bonds skews these numbers quite a bit. But look at a couple guys with career .975 OPS: Frank Thomas, who was much maligned toward the end had a .900+ OPS from the ages of 35 until 39. And Jim Thome has had a .900+ OPS since he turned 35. Jason Giambi's a career .940 OPS guys, who's put up .890 since he's turned 35. And similarly, Carlos Delgado is a career .925 OPS guy, and since he turned 35, he's been about .830, and that includes a miserable year in 2007.

This is the reference point that makes more sense to look at when you try to look down the road. And if anything, Berkman's been healthier than the guys that I've just listed. Berkman's averaged 153 games played per season, since his first full year in the majors, in 2001 (rookie in 2000, played 114 games). The key is that he's been healthy. There will be a fall off. He won't be the .975 OPS guy that he's been to this point. But there's a good chance that he'll keep being around .900, for a number of years to come.

Conversely, Joe Mauer has already lost big chunks of time in two separate seasons. And this year, he hasn't played, yet. I don't know if it's the sort of trauma that you bounce back from, or if it's the chronic injury that stays with you. But over the next 6 years, if you had to guess who was going to play more games, Berkman or Mauer, you'd probably have to go with Berkman.


PHATSNAPPER'S REPLY:

The point of the veto is to maintain the leagues level of competitiveness? so if its april even though you so- called God's gift of the waiver wire fantasy baseball experts know baseball so well. Why can't a trade happen if we think there is value for both teams.

I am a trader. I make trades on perceived value all the time. I promise its not that black and white. If it were that easy buy and hold would work...(insert if you bought stocks in before 1960 you would still be up a lot money argument here.) who of you was alive in 1960. I take money from boring accountant/engineer linear thinking people every day.

This auto-veto in a free league is absolutely retarded. so if thats the case. why doesnt roland rebalance all the teams? wait let me guess ? you guys probably also think we should bail out GM Ford and Chrysler for making shitty cars for the last 20 years. BRILLIANT

I will also bet you that Dukes puts up as good a numbers as matt holliday on a annualized 162 game stretch this year within 10 percent. I will bet 1000 bux on it if anyone wants to take me up on it.


O.N. THUG'S REPLY:

Rup - there's a difference between proposing a bet and making an argument.

You've done the former, but still haven't done the latter. And you haven't even offered any reasonable explanation why my argument was bad. The basic procedure seems to be this:

a) proclaim loudly that you know more than anyone else, then
b) complain loudly against a decision and offer hyperbole, and finally
c) not offer either a reasonable explanation for why you're complaining or a rebuttal against my explanation.

I don't know - maybe we're being unreasonable. Especially after your last post, which made a lot of sense. After all, government bailouts are definitely more related to fantasy sports than having your player charged with rape/murder.


PHATSNAPPER'S REPLY:

Heres the problem. I just wrote a really long post but it got erased sic.

THERE IS NO WAY WITH ANY ACCURACY YOU CAN TELL ME HOLLIDAY IS GOING TO BE A BETTER PLAYER THAN DUKES OUTSIDE OF COORS. HE HAS NEVER PLAYED ANYWHERE ELSE AND CLEARLY COORS FIELD MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE. DANTE BICHETTE ANYONE? HOW BOUT TODD HELTON OR THAT 3B THAT I CAN REMEMBER HIS NAME?

he goes from the best hitting park in the majors to one of the worst. his numbers will take a major hit. and there is no way in hell he steals 28 bases. based on his career numbers hes like 12 steals a year. that was obviously a fluke.

as for dukes. he is one of the most talented young players in the game aside from his off-field issues. If he ever gets out of his own way and gets rid of all this attitude stuff he could be one of the best five tool players in the game.

In a keeper league uptrending and down-trending is very important. especially in a league with this many keepers.

berkman downtrending you dont think that matters? JUST ASK THE OWNERS OF DAVID ORTIZ ANDRUW JONES CHIPPER JETER MO VAUGHN? CHRIS CARPENTER? are they still great when healthy? sure carpenter was probably the Cy young winner if the season ended after 2 starts. Chipper is a OPS machine WHEN HE PLAYS. Berkman career is solid, but year to year he is a wild card trust me. I have had him in other keeper leagues before.

Is berkman better than MAUER considering position scarcity. I doubt it. Is Lester solid could be even better absolutely. and hes young with no arm issues.

So theres the argument. NOT EVERYTHING in FANTASY. IS THREE YEAR HISTORICAL PROJECTIONS IF THAT WAS THE CASE YOU WOULD WIN THE LEAGUE EVERY YEAR. CAUSE CLEARLY YOU KNOW MORE ABOUT THIS TOPIC THAN ANYONE. AND IF IT WERE THAT EASY WHY NOT JUST USE YOUR SUPER-COMPUTER AND JUST RUN THE SIMULATIONS AND TELL US WHO WINS AND WE COULD SAVE THE TIME AND REDRAFT AT MID-SEASON AND PLAY AGAIN..

its a Free LEAGUE. its not that either owner is dumping players. obviously I get a better deal for this year assuming your assumptions. This is not JEFF ROGERS territory. HOW CAN I IMPROVE MY TEAM if i can't make trades with someone that perceives value to be different? THE WAIVER WIRE...GOOD ONE. wow that takes a lot of strategy. So the only place strategy takes effect is the draft. again. I would rather auto set my team and see you guys next year.

The first veto for street when he was the closer for one game makes sense. THis one is just stupid. and I am tired of commishoners that think they are God's gift to fantasy because they have ten friends that want to play in a league wielding with an iron-fist. I see it all to often.

FOR THE RECORD. CLEARLY I AM GETTING A BETTER DEAL. but that doesn't mean i am not giving up future competiveness to win now.

as for the Rape charges. or whatever. DUKES is not going to jail and will be on the field the whole season and put up monster numbers. Worry about making your own teams better not someone who is toiling in last place. f'ing retarded.