Endgame: Down to the Buzzer

The basketball season is coming down to an end, with 10 to 11 games remaining for each team. So, that means that each UPL franchise will have time to play about 100 games or so, out of the 820 possible games. So what's the story?

Rank		Team	Points	Pts Change	Waiver	Moves
1.		European Sellout	81	-2	8	5
2.		Sparty Rules	72	1	9	1
3.		O.N. Thugs	70.5	0.5	5	14
3.		Westy's Ballers	70.5	-0.5	1	17
5.		IamJabrone	68.5	1.5	11	29
6.		Floor burns	66.5	0	2	2
7.		Dribbling Balls	64.5	-0.5	7	2
8.		chowtime	61	0	6	10
9.		Eddy's Crusty Towels	42.5	-0.5	3	3
10.		Love Timberwolves	41	0	4	-
11.		Phatsnapper	22	0.5	10	1

So, Stephen is still in 1st place. As previously discussed, Westy has fallen from his spot as the prohibitive leader, largely due to injuries to Al Jefferson (and to a lesser extent KG/Nene). But he's still a contender. And, as previously speculated, Sparty has emerged as a contender, as have C-Lauff, and a certain traditionally strong team that has gotten hot of late.

But the more important information comes if you look a little deeper.

Team	FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	OREB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T	Total
European Sellout	8	4	9	10	6	5	10	11	9	9	81
Sparty Rules	1	11	11	4	2	11	11	4	6	11	72
O.N. Thugs	5.5	8	4	9	10	7	8	5	8	6	70.5
Westy's Ballers	9.5	7	5	7	5	9	9	9	5	5	70.5
IamJabrone	9.5	3	3	11	9	8	5	10	7	3	68.5
Floor burns	3	6	8	6	11	10	3	6.5	11	2	66.5
Dribbling Balls	5.5	2	6	5	7	6	7	8	10	8	64.5
chowtime	7	10	7	8	3	3	6	3	4	10	61
Eddy's Crusty Towels	2	1	10	3	4	2	4	6.5	3	7	42.5
Love Timberwolves	11	9	1	2	8	4	1	2	2	1	41
Phatsnapper	4	5	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	4	22

The first look gives a little insight. But you really need to look at the info above in conjunction with the stats below. Essentially, this is a primer on what I've been calling upward/downard stability/mobility.

Team	G	FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	OREB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T
European Sellout	771	0.472	0.773	789	12610	1065	4413	2782	863	557	1.69
Sparty Rules	730	0.46	0.826	865	10928	943	4773	2782	711	495	1.91
O.N. Thugs	737	0.467	0.796	539	12268	1316	4439	2530	718	511	1.61
Westy's Ballers	733	0.473	0.793	561	11837	1043	4618	2568	801	468	1.6
IamJabrone	733	0.473	0.761	499	12638	1255	4563	2290	845	508	1.45
Floor burns	788	0.464	0.79	724	11345	1339	4707	2170	729	570	1.43
Dribbling Balls	709	0.467	0.759	704	11313	1073	4411	2467	779	569	1.67
chowtime	726	0.47	0.819	710	12111	1012	4180	2453	677	453	1.77
Eddy's Crusty Towels	728	0.462	0.758	829	10650	1033	4093	2215	726	431	1.62
Love Timberwolves	633	0.478	0.8	357	10492	1164	4242	1895	609	389	1.38
Phatsnapper	594	0.465	0.789	479	9358	873	3604	1996	580	379	1.52

Note: I was trying to format the table, as some of the stats were cutoff, but screwed it up, so the stats are now as of 3/28. The analysis below remains unchanged.

Now, things get interesting. It's a little hard to read, but take a closer look. You can get a nice picture of how things may play out down the stretch. First of all, you should figure out where Stephen will finish out, given the 30 games that he's up on the contenders.

To figure out where a given team will finish, you simply look at each stat category, and figure out where shifts in points may happen. We can hold off on the rate stats for a second, and focus on the counting stats. Obviously, nothing's happening w/ 3PM for Stephen. However, with PTS, you see that he'll lose 2 points (to O.N. Thugs, Chowtime), and maybe 1 more point to OD. Similarly, you expect him to lose 2 points in OREB (Eddy and Westy) and 1 point in STL (C-Lauff). Additionally, there may be losses of 1 point in REB (LoveT'Wolves), and up to 2 points in AST (O.N. Thugs, Westy). So tally it up. He'll very likely lose 5 points, and could lose up to 4 more. So, a realistic scenario is the loss of 7 points. He should pick one point back up in BLK (Floor Burns). So effectively, Stephen's score isn't 81, but something more like 75. Now, if you factor in the rate stats, you see that there isn't much play in any category, other than FG%. There, he could go up 2 points, but could also drop 1 point. Credit him with half a point, and put his target nubmer at 75.5 points.

So, that's the rabbit. Can any of the greyhounds catch Stephen?

First, look at Sparty. His points are very stable, actually. Looking across the line, you see that he'll probably pick up 1 point in PTS, 1 point in STL (both from Floor Burns), and may get 1 more point in STL (O.N. Thugs), 1 more in BLK (C-Lauff), and 1 more in FG% (Eddy), but may lose 1 (Love T'Wolves). So, you can credit Sparty with 3.5 more points, for a total of 75.5 points. Probably not quite enough to overtake Stephen.

Now, we'll go to Westy. He should pick up 1 point in OREB (Stephen), 1 in REB (Floor Burns). He could pick up another point in AST (Stephen), and a half point in FG% (from C-Lauff), but could lose a point in PTS (to OD). Tally it up, and you figure that he'll pick up 2.5 points, and end up with 73 points.

As for C-Lauff, you can credit him for 1 point each in REB and OREB (both from Floor Burns), 1 point in STL (Stephen). Additionally, he may pick up a point in BLK (O.N. Thugs) and half a point from Westy in FG%, though there's a chance that he loses a point in BLK (Sparty) and to a lesser extent, possibly 2 points in FT% (OD and Eddy) . If you credit him with 3 points, that puts C-Lauff at 71.5 points. Not looking as good as Westy or Sparty.

Now, for myself. I've got a point coming to me in PTS (Stephen) and REB, OREB, STL (all from Floor Burns). So that's 4 points coming, with some certainty. Now, things get a little dicey everywhere else. I've got a shot at 0.5 - 1.5 points in FG% (OD and chowtime). I've also got a shot at 1 point in AST (Westy), 1 point in STL and A/TO (both from Eddy), and an outside shot at 1 point in FT% (Love T'Wolves) and 1 point in BLK (Floor Burns). I also have to protect my lead in STL (Sparty). If you credit me with a net of 2 points out of that mess, then you're looking at right around 76.5 points for me, which puts me ahead of the magical 75.5 target, where Stephen projects out.

Of course, we were somewhat conservative on Stephen's target number. There's a chance that he finishes with 78 points, and no one can catch him. Or, he could fall down to 73 points, and it could be an absolute mess. My finishing range looks to be anywhere from 72.5-77.5 points. C-Lauff is looking at 69-73 points. Westy will be between 70-74.5, and Sparty will be between 74 and 77.

Now, the thing is, these projects are not necessarily self-fulfilling prophecies. You definitely need to go out and try to facilitate things that make the 50-50's go your way. You need to find ways to cheat an extra point here or there that aren't expected. And certainly, you have to be ready to respond to what your opponents are trying to do. What makes this so interesting is that there are a number of players all trying (in theory) to optimize things, so you have to take a couple chances here and there on strange pickups, particularly in the backdrop of a keeper league.

In any case, I don't think that C-Lauff can do it. And Westy's team has been falling after the Big Al injury. It's looking like a 3 team race. I know who I'm betting on. But then again, I always bet the same way.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)