Age Discrimination

As CJ alluded to in the previous post, baseball is coming right around the corner. Given that this is the original UPL sport, this is probably just a bit bigger than the basketball draft that we just had last fall. So we need to think a bit about how we're going to draft.

So where does this analysis start?

It probably has to start with the amount of young talent out there. A quick skim down the top of the Yahoo! pre-ranks, shows a number of young players (under 27) who are already elite: Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Evan Longoria, Prince Fielder, etc. And this is in the presence of a number of stars who are a bit older (28-32), but don't seem to be slowing down any time soon: Pujols, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Howard, etc. Where things get interesting is with the stars who are 33+. A-Rod comes to mind.

Why these age cut-offs? Well, in baseball, the historical trend has been for players to improve until they get to age 27, to plateau until about 33, and then to decline after 33 (and potentially fall off the cliff). However, in recent years (perhaps due to advances in training and/or chemistry), we're seeing more players extend their plateau, and perhaps even improve as they age.

Pitchers are a bit of a different story, particularly when you consider the style of pitcher. But you see something similar, though I think that the young stage is more of a roller-coaster (and lasts until 30 or so), the plateau goes past 33 (to maybe 36), and the decline tends to be a much steeper descent than for hitters. A lot of this comes from the rate of arm injuries that young pitchers encounter, and the relative stability that develops through that learning process.

So, naturally, you worry about starting young. But how young? Where's that sweet spot? Part of that depends on what your goals are. Obviously, if you want to win now, you don't worry about age as much. If your plan is to develop and dominate by year 4, how perfect do you have to draft, if you're going to load up on rookies?

I'm not giving away any secrets here until after the draft. All I know is that my strategy of drafting the 1995 Topps All-Star Team probably isn't a viable strategy. I'm going to have to change with the times, and understand that this is a new day. And to prove that I'm serious, I'm dusting off my old baseball cards and figuring out who was on the 1996 Topps All-Star Team.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)