Sunday, March 22, 2009

The Anatomy of a Baseball Draft, Part III

Final installment. 12-round marathon. Get ready to roll, starting in round 13:

1. Josh Johnson IamJabrone
2. José López Black Sox
3. Cameron Maybin Hats for Bats
4. Carlos Delgado O.N. Thugs
5. Aaron Harang Muddy Mush H...
6. Derek Lowe Cheeseheads
7. John Danks TheJimmyDixL...
8. Brian Wilson '90 Reds
9. Pat Burrell IStillSuckCu...
10. Matt Garza Westy's Slug...
11. Alex Gordon Phatsnapper
12. Ben Sheets Benver Droncos

C-Lauff and Pauly go after young talent. I go with old, old talent in Carlos Delgado. I needed some pop, and Delgado was the last of the reliable power at 1B, save potentially Jason Giambi. We see a little run on pitching, which makes sense until Benver gets screwed with Ben Sheets. I don't mind grabbing someone and stashing them on my DL for the year. But that should be late (like starting with the 18th round). Nothing super strange here, though.

1. Clayton Kershaw Benver Droncos
2. Erik Bedard Phatsnapper
3. Kevin Slowey Westy's Slug...
4. Mark DeRosa IStillSuckCu...
5. Milton Bradley '90 Reds
6. Jered Weaver TheJimmyDixL...
7. Mike González Cheeseheads
8. Randy Johnson Muddy Mush H...
9. James Loney O.N. Thugs
10. Chien-Ming Wang Hats for Bats
11. Joey Devine Black Sox
12. Mike Napoli IamJabrone

Benver goes young wtih Clayton Kershaw, who apparently will be in a sink or swim sort of situation this year in LA. Rup gets potential value from an established source. Westy gets stuck w/ Kevin Slowey, whoever the hell he is. Greg switches from drafting young to drafting crazy with Milton Bradley (who's definitely my kind of player). Cheeseheads get a cheap closer. And the Mush Heads take a page out of the O.N. Thugs playbook and go with a very old player, in Randy Johnson. I think that Wang will end up being a steal in this round.

By the time my pick rolls around, OD had taken the 2B that I wanted (DeRosa). The next 2B on the board that I wanted was Kelly Johnson. But, I figure that I can get him next round. I go for raw talent with James Loney, who's coming off a tough season, but can still hit the ball (particularly on the road, if you look at his splits). In fact, if you look at his career road numbers, (.368/.553), and his age (25), you'd probably draft him in the 6th round or so. So, I'm happy with this pick, so long as I only play him on the road.

1. Huston Street IamJabrone
2. Jorge Cantú Black Sox
3. Heath Bell Hats for Bats
4. Kelly Johnson O.N. Thugs
5. Johnny Cueto Muddy Mush H...
6. Ted Lilly Cheeseheads
7. Edwin Encarnación TheJimmyDixL...
8. Chad Qualls '90 Reds
9. Trevor Hoffman IStillSuckCu...
10. Bengie Molina Westy's Slug...
11. Miguel Tejada Phatsnapper
12. John Maine Benver Droncos

The 15th round starts with C-Lauff goes for a Coors Field closer. Good luck, my friend. Heath Bell may be a sneaky closer in SD. I'm a little worried that Kelly Johnson (pre-rank #143) won't be available, if I let him go, so I get him with #172 overall, which is still a bit of a value. I didn't really think twice about this, but was a little disappointed when Cueto went off the board right after my pick. Rupert goes w/ Tejada. I wonder if Tejada had anything left in the tank.

1. Gavin Floyd Benver Droncos
2. Brad Hawpe Phatsnapper
3. Jair Jurrjens Westy's Slug...
4. Jorge Posada IStillSuckCu...
5. Conor Jackson '90 Reds
6. Oliver Pérez TheJimmyDixL...
7. Justin Duchscherer Cheeseheads
8. Joel Hanrahan Muddy Mush H...
9. Chris Carpenter O.N. Thugs
10. Matt Lindstrom Hats for Bats
11. Frank Francisco Black Sox
12. Xavier Nady IamJabrone

At this point, it's generally slim pickings. OD finds some potential value at C w/ Jorge Posada. Conor Jackson may end up with a little power. Oliver Perez will get a lot of K's, but may walk in too many runs... I go with a potentially huge play with Chris Carpenter. If he's healthy, he's a stud, and becomes potentially my 4th top-end starter. Of course, if he's not healthy, he's a waste. But in the 16th round, that sort of lottery ticket is just fine. At this point, I'm still looking for some more power, with not a whole lot left on the board.

1. Kevin Gregg IamJabrone
2. Gil Meche Black Sox
3. Adrián Béltre Hats for Bats
4. Jim Thome O.N. Thugs
5. Jonathan Sánchez Muddy Mush H...
6. Manny Parra Cheeseheads
7. Ryan Theriot TheJimmyDixL...
8. Pablo Sandoval '90 Reds
9. J.D. Drew IStillSuckCu...
10. Fausto Carmona Westy's Slug...
11. Travis Hafner Phatsnapper
12. Ubaldo Jiménez Benver Droncos

I end up with Thome. Every year, people talk about how his legs and back are going to give out. And every year, he seems to hit 35 HR. We'll see if it can happen for one more year. Again, if this works out, I've shored up my offense. If not, I'm hunting in free agency. At this point, everyone's guessing.

1. Mike Pelfrey Benver Droncos
2. Elijah Dukes Phatsnapper
3. Fernando Rodney Westy's Slug...
4. Jason Giambi IStillSuckCu...
5. Joe Saunders '90 Reds
6. J.J. Putz TheJimmyDixL...
7. John Smoltz Cheeseheads
8. Chris Volstad Muddy Mush H...
9. Shin-Soo Choo O.N. Thugs
10. Phil Hughes Hats for Bats
11. Rick Ankiel Black Sox
12. Mark Reynolds IamJabrone

Giambi in the 18th isn't bad. Same for Smoltz, Ankiel, or Reynolds. I'm actually really happy with the Choo pick. His numbers, primarily against righties, were good (.400/.550). Again, if I only play him against righties, this guy's going to be a stud. So, between he and Loney, I'll have a nice pseudo-platoon going.

1. Billy Butler IamJabrone
2. Carlos Guillén Black Sox
3. Armando Galarraga Hats for Bats
4. Willy Taveras O.N. Thugs
5. Denard Span Muddy Mush H...
6. Kazuo Matsui Cheeseheads
7. Mark Buehrle TheJimmyDixL...
8. Ian Stewart '90 Reds
9. Mike Lowell IStillSuckCu...
10. Adam LaRoche Westy's Slug...
11. Adam Jones Phatsnapper
12. Hideki Matsui Benver Droncos

In the 19th, I grab some cheap steals. The rest of the round is the same as the rest of the draft. OD gets a Red Sox player. CJ gets a White Sox player. Westy gets screwed by the auto-draft. And Rupert picks up a prospect who's a couple years away.

1. Khalil Greene Benver Droncos
2. Matt LaPorta Phatsnapper
3. Mike Cameron Westy's Slug...
4. Jason Varitek IStillSuckCu...
5. Troy Percival '90 Reds
6. José Guillén TheJimmyDixL...
7. Nick Swisher Cheeseheads
8. Rickie Weeks Muddy Mush H...
9. George Sherrill O.N. Thugs
10. Orlando Cabrera Hats for Bats
11. Mike Jacobs Black Sox
12. Kelvim Escobar IamJabrone

The 20th round is about the same. LaPorta's got a lot of upside, but you wonder how long it will take for him to stick in the majors. Percival will get Greg some saves. Guillen is probably good for 20 HR and 90 RBI, not bad for late in the draft. I think that Sherrill will do reasonably well, and I can afford a little hit to the rate stats if he does get touched up a bit. Kelvim Escobar is a potentially strong pick for C-Lauff.

1. Jason Motte IamJabrone
2. Delmon Young Black Sox
3. Iván Rodríguez Hats for Bats
4. Shaun Marcum O.N. Thugs
5. Adam Lind Muddy Mush H...
6. Paul Konerko Cheeseheads
7. Orlando Hudson TheJimmyDixL...
8. Rajai Davis '90 Reds
9. Jed Lowrie IStillSuckCu...
10. Carlos Gómez Westy's Slug...
11. Colby Rasmus Phatsnapper
12. Troy Glaus Benver Droncos

The 21st round didn't bring a whole lot of excitement. If Motte wins the closer job in StL, the C-Lauff found a steal. Similarly, if Glaus comes back healthy in May, the Benver gets a steal, as well. I go with Marcum, so I can stash him away for next year.

1. Hank Blalock Benver Droncos
2. Tommy Hanson Phatsnapper
3. Dioner Navarro Westy's Slug...
4. Tim Hudson IStillSuckCu...
5. Wandy Rodríguez '90 Reds
6. Jamie Moyer TheJimmyDixL...
7. A.J. Pierzynski Cheeseheads
8. Yunel Escobar Muddy Mush H...
9. Gary Sheffield O.N. Thugs
10. Brandon Lyon Hats for Bats
11. Jesse Litsch Black Sox
12. Pedro Martínez IamJabrone

In the 22nd, OD stashes away Hudson for the year. Yunel Escobar is a potential keeper at SS. Lyon will get some saves. And me and C-Lauff have similar ideas with old players maybe finding lightning in a bottle (Sheffield for me, Pedro for C-Lauff). At least my guy is on a team right now.

1. Rick Porcello IamJabrone
2. Brad Ziegler Black Sox
3. Jeff Francoeur Hats for Bats
4. Felipe López O.N. Thugs
5. Melvin Mora Muddy Mush H...
6. Jeremy Hermida Cheeseheads
7. Mark Teahen TheJimmyDixL...
8. Dana Eveland '90 Reds
9. Plácido Polanco IStillSuckCu...
10. Mark Ellis Westy's Slug...
11. Brett Anderson Phatsnapper
12. Coco Crisp Benver Droncos

In the 23rd, Black Sox complete the Devine/Ziegler closer tandem in Oakland. Francoeur is still really young, and can probably still churn in 80+ RBI this year, but seems cursed. We'll see if he bounces back. Mora's reliable for some pop at 3B, and Hermida is looking for a serious bounce-back year. I go with a backup at multiple positions, who may steal bases, given playing time. We'll see.

1. Ramón Hernández Benver Droncos
2. Mat Gamel Phatsnapper
3. Édgar Rentería Westy's Slug...
4. Kelly Shoppach IStillSuckCu...
5. Eric Byrnes '90 Reds
6. Tim Wakefield TheJimmyDixL...
7. Chris Pérez Cheeseheads
8. Jeff Clement Muddy Mush H...
9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia O.N. Thugs
10. Hiroki Kuroda Hats for Bats
11. Akinori Iwamura Black Sox
12. Chris Snyder IamJabrone

More guesses in the 24th round. I go with Salty, since I'm considering keeping 2 C's this season, as mentioned before. Greg gets a potential steal in Byrnes, if he's healthy. But in all likelihood, he's getting a bench guy. Or an announcer. Benver may bet getting some value in Ramon Hernandez, if he finds his bat again. I go with my 2nd catcher.

Not much really here. Of course, some of these guys are bound to surprise, so someone will look back and see that their season turned on a miracle coming out of the 22nd round. I just hope that it's me, when Gary Sheffield cranks his 30th HR in July. But really, after the 15th round or so, everyone's just guessing, and hoping to get lucky.

As far as my team goes, I like it.

SP: Lincecum, Peavy, Harden, Carpenter, Marcum (DL)
RP: K-Rod, Soria, Fuentes, Ryan, Sherrill

I'm planning on having my way with SV, and the rate stats. I'll need to dig up another starter or two, but should be able to compete with W, L, and K, as well. Pitching projections don't work nearly as well, when you get into the counting numbers, but the goal is to get 60 points (out of a possible 72) from my pitching.

IF: Martin, Delgado, Johnson, Wright, Jeter
OF: Markakis, Dunn, Choo
UTIL: Thome/Loney/Sheffield
Reserves: Felipe Lopez, Salty, Tavarez

My OBP will be good - should be around .375 this year, which should put me at the top of the league. And my SLG should be around .475, which should put me in the top 3, at least. I think that I can squeeze 225 HR out of this lineup, which will make me competitive. With this team 900 R should be a given. The RBI are a little more tenuous, with a projection of 870 RBI being reasonable. With SB, my starters should net me about 80 SB, but I have the option of getting steals w/ Tavarez and Lopez. The only question is how much other offense that will cost me. The goal is to get 52 points with the first 5 categories, and then to play SB by ear, and try to cheat my way to 5 points in SB.

Of course this is assuming no injuries. But that's what you always assume. Naturally, you have to adjust your plans, if you need replacement players. I've had a knack for doing well in free agency in the past, so I sort of ignore the potential of injuries, I guess...

Anyway, if I hit my goals in pitching and hitting, I'm looking at 117 points, which should put me in a spot to compete for the league this year. Granted, those are optimistic goals, but I have a suspicion that the UPL Keeper Era will have a distinct O.N. Thugs flavor.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

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