The Anatomy of a Baseball Draft, Part I

The UPL is a 3-sport league, but UPL Baseball was the first, and (at least in my mind), the most prestigious title. As such, given my preference for hyperbole, this post will dissect the most important draft in the history of the UPL.

Walking into the draft, my strategy was simple. Look for young, established talent - don't overpay for prospects. I figure that I can win now, and still prep myself for the future. The major cut-off point is the age of 30. Also, I decided that I wanted to go with almost-guaranteed keepers for the first 10 rounds. So, no old guys until late, which is sort of contrary to my reputation in this league. The guys that I wanted? Best young hitter - David Wright. Best young starter - Tim Lincecum. Best young closer - Joakim Soria. The problem that I had is that I did virtually no prep work for this draft. So, throughout the draft, I was searching online for ages. Basically, I'd draft based off of the pre-rankings, and work age into the equation on the fly. This makes for a little more stressful draft (and I wasn't as chatty on the phone or in the draft room as usual).

The draft starts off pretty much as expected, though there's a little blip when C-Lauff goes w/ Pujols over Hanley Ramirez (which drew a comment from the peanut gallery). But in fairness, you never know how old those Carribean players are. I probably had Pujols and Wright tied for first, with the slight edge to Wright given his position and age. I had decided that Ramirez wasn't as good a bet as either of those guys, and I've generally thought that Reyes was overhyped. I did think about Miggy Cabrera for a second, but realized that he wasn't going to qualifying at 3B after this season.

1.	Albert Pujols	IamJabrone
2.	Hanley Ramírez	Black Sox
3.	José Reyes	Hats for Bats
4.	David Wright	O.N. Thugs
5.	Grady Sizemore	Muddy Mush H...
6.	Miguel Cabrera	Cheeseheads

Where things get strange (a little, anyway) is with the next few picks:

7.	Ian Kinsler	TheJimmyDixL...
8.	Ryan Howard	'90 Reds
9.	Ryan Braun	IStillSuckCu...
10.	Chase Utley	Westy's Slug...
11.	Josh Hamilton	Phatsnapper
12.	Jimmy Rollins	Benver Droncos

I was surprised to see Kinsler go at #7, particularly since I'm a Chase Utley guy. But you can make a case that Kinsler at 27 is a better bet than Utley at 30. I mean, you'd be wrong, but still. What I was intrigued about was Utley going at #10. I mean, I agreed w/ the pick, but the pre-rank had Utley at 22, which meant that he was in my range in the 2nd round (which I would've been all over, in all likelihood). So, I was a little disappointed... but not for long...

But I was a little more surprised to see Greg go with Ryan Howard. I've never been a huge Ryan Howard fan, but what scares me about the guy in a keeper league is his sheer size. Maybe it's because I've got Mo Vaughn stuck in my mind, but guys that big just seem to fall off the cliff more quickly. I don't know. I hope that I'm wrong... actually nix that. I hope that I'm right.

In any case, moving on to the 2nd round:

1.	B.J. Upton	Benver Droncos
2.	Mark Teixeira	Phatsnapper
3.	Lance Berkman	Westy's Slug...
4.	Dustin Pedroia	IStillSuckCu...
5.	Carlos Beltrán	'90 Reds
6.	Evan Longoria	TheJimmyDixL...
7.	Alfonso Soriano	Cheeseheads
8.	Johan Santana	Muddy Mush H...
9.	Tim Lincecum	O.N. Thugs
10.	Álex Rodríguez	Hats for Bats
11.	Carlos Quentin	Black Sox
12.	Cole Hamels	IamJabrone

The 2nd round start off pretty normal, though Westy go a little unlucky w/ Berkman as his autodraft (33 years old). OD sticks w/ his Red Sox Gambit. And once again, I'm a little surprised at Greg's pick - this time Carlos Beltran (32 years old). I had assumed that Greg was going to go a little younger with the top of the draft. But Beltran's solid. I'm not as sold on Soriano, though if he's batting 4 or 5, then his RBI numbers go up quite a bit.

Where the draft gets interesting for me is with my pick of Tim Lincecum. Originally, I thought that I'd have a tough choice between Chase Utley (who has been an O.N. Thugs cornerstone for years) and Lincecum. But Westy fixed that problem for me. At this point, I feel pretty good. I got the young hitter that I wanted. And now, I get the young pitcher that I wanted. I had Lincecum rated ahead of Santana and Hamels, so I was pretty excited. Now, all I needed to do was to hope that Joakim Soria fell to me later in the draft, and I'd have the three young guys that I wanted to target.

And the answer to the question of where A-Rod was going to fall to is answered right after my pick. I had thought that A-Rod (pre-rank of 39) was going to be around with my pick in the 3rd (28th overall), so I figured that I'd have a tough choice there. But, once again, potential tough decisions are avoided. On to the 3rd round...

1.	CC Sabathia	IamJabrone
2.	Prince Fielder	Black Sox
3.	Brandon Phillips	Hats for Bats
4.	Nick Markakis	O.N. Thugs
5.	Carlos Lee	Muddy Mush H...
6.	Carl Crawford	Cheeseheads
7.	Cliff Lee	TheJimmyDixL...
8.	Manny Ramírez	'90 Reds
9.	Jason Bay	IStillSuckCu...
10.	Matt Holliday	Westy's Slug...
11.	Matt Kemp	Phatsnapper
12.	Justin Morneau	Benver Droncos

C-Lauff makes things interesting by going pitcher-pitcher in the 2nd and 3rd, with Hamels and CC. I was hoping that Prince Fielder was going to fall to me at #28, but that wasn't to be. And my next best hope was Brandon Phillips, since 2B was a relatively scarce position. But again, that wasn't to be. So, I'm left with a choice. First, do I also go pitcher-pitcher? I entertain the idea of going Peavy, and then trying to go Webb or Liriano in the 4th. But I think better of it, and go offense, instead. Based on the board, 1B/OF is the general idea. Do I go very old (Manny), relatively old (Matt Holliday) or young (Markakis/Kemp). In years past, Holliday would've been the choice, but given his move to Oakland this year, I decided to pass. I go with Markakis over Kemp, since Markakis is one of those .400/.500 players that I tend to love.

Cliff Lee at #31 overall was strange. At this point, I wasn't exactly sure what CJ was going with, other than sticking with familiar players. But if you're going to to pitcher, conventional wisdom says Webb, Peavy, or Halladay are stronger bets. And Liriano's the prospect to look at there... The rest of the round was pretty standard, so on to the 4th.

1.	Vladimir Guerrero	Benver Droncos
2.	Félix Hernández	Phatsnapper
3.	Brandon Webb	Westy's Slug...
4.	Kevin Youkilis	IStillSuckCu...
5.	Aramis Ramírez	'90 Reds
6.	Alexei Ramírez	TheJimmyDixL...
7.	David Ortiz	Cheeseheads
8.	Ichiro Suzuki	Muddy Mush H...
9.	Jake Peavy	O.N. Thugs
10.	Roy Halladay	Hats for Bats
11.	Jonathan Papelbon	Black Sox
12.	Jacoby Ellsbury	IamJabrone

There's a little reach early in the round, when Rupert goes with King Felix at #38 overall. The pre-rank had him going off at #86, though I think that our format drives his value up, into the 60's. I'm pretty sure that Felix would have lasted through Rupert's pick in the 5th round (#59 overall) or 6th round (#62 overall). You can't really bash the pick - the kid's young and has great stuff. But I think that there's been a 2.5 round premium paid for him, and that's the sort of thing that I was trying to avoid. Similar story with CJ and Alexi Ramirez at #42 overall. The pre-rank had him going off at #53, so CJ probably has to move in the 4th round, if he's targeting Alexi. Unfortunately, the pre-rank had him a little overrated. Again, I like Ramirez, but looking at where the auto-draft had him slotted, I already told myself that I wasn't going to get him.

My plan is do draft pitcher, with Peavy and Webb as the frontrunners. Westy takes Webb, so once again, my decision is easy. At this point, I'm on the horn w/ OD. We're hoping that either Papelbon (pre-rank #50) or Ellsbury (pre-rank #51) fall to us in the 5th round. Sadly, neither of those two make it past the 4th round.

1.	Francisco Liriano	IamJabrone
2.	Chad Billingsley	Black Sox
3.	Adrián González	Hats for Bats
4.	Russell Martin	O.N. Thugs
5.	Brian Roberts	Muddy Mush H...
6.	Curtis Granderson	Cheeseheads
7.	Brian McCann	TheJimmyDixL...
8.	Dan Haren	'90 Reds
9.	Daisuke Matsuzaka	IStillSuckCu...
10.	Nate McLouth	Westy's Slug...
11.	Joe Mauer	Phatsnapper
12.	Álex Ríos	Benver Droncos

The 5th round opens up with another slight stretch - Liriano at #49 overall (pre-rank #70). Of course, there's probably no chance that he lasts until C-Lauff's pick in the 6th, #72 overall. So, again, if you want your guy, you have to take him there. I think that it's a a 1 round premium, which is only a misdemeanor. And almost exactly the same thing happens w/ Billingsley at #41 (pre-rank #73). Although, I'd personally rank Billingsley slightly ahead of Liriano, given the slight age advantage (and who knows how old Liriano actually is).

My pick comes up, and I think that offense looks more attractive at this spot (though Dan Haren isn't out of wack as a pick here). The choices are either C (all of the 3M top tier is available) or OF (Granderson or Rios). Normally, the call is Adam Dunn (pre-rank #66), but I think that I can stretch one more round (my pick is #69) and wait for him, given all the stretching that people are doing. I end up going with Russell Martin, who's a year older than McCann, and doesn't have the McCann's power (or Mauer's pure hitting). But Martin reminds me of I-Rod, who's one of my all-time favorite players, and I decide that I can be happy rooting for him for a few years. The rest of the round moves pretty much normally, although for the 2nd time in 5 rounds, Westy's autodraft screws him, which the peanut gallery (more specifically, me) jokes about. On to the 6th...

1.	Shane Victorino	Benver Droncos
2.	Yovani Gallardo	Phatsnapper
3.	John Lackey	Westy's Slug...
4.	Josh Beckett	IStillSuckCu...
5.	Víctor Martínez	'90 Reds
6.	James Shields	TheJimmyDixL...
7.	Geovany Soto	Cheeseheads
8.	Corey Hart	Muddy Mush H...
9.	Adam Dunn	O.N. Thugs
10.	Garrett Atkins	Hats for Bats
11.	Chris Iannetta	Black Sox
12.	Dan Uggla	IamJabrone

Some interesting choices at the start of the 6th. Rupert again overpays for youth, going w/ Gallardo at #62 overall (pre-rank #112). I'm pretty sure that Gallardo is available for Rupert in the 8th. Lackey goes to Westy (like he does every year), and Beckett goes to OD (like he, and every other Red Sox player does every year). Then comes Greg... who uses the entire time, and comes up with Victor Martinez. I had assumed that he was debating Shields (who's a regular on the '90 Reds) or Soto (the last of most people's top tier catchers). Apparently he was debating Dunn. Happily, Greg leaves Dunn alone, and I'm able to grab him in the 6th, after Soto and Corey Hart go off the board in front of me. I've always thought that Corey Hart was overrated, so that makes me doubly happy. What's interesting is that the chain of events leaves Stephen reaching with his pick of Iannetta at #71 overall (pre-rank #138), because of the relative shoratge at catcher. In my mind, you have to either get one of the top 4 guys, or just wait to see what's left in the 14th round (depending on what you believe about this Matt Wieters guys), and not panic, so I thought that Ianetta was a panic pick, although the Coors Field factor is strong.

At this point, I'm liking my team. My oldest guy is Dunn, at 29. But getting him in the 6th is a steal for this league. Wright, Markakis, and Martin are young and accomplished. Ditto for Lincecum and Peavy. At this point, the draft is going about as well as it could for me.

In any case, we'll keep talking about round 7-12 next time...

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)