Sunday, March 22, 2009

The Anatomy of a Baseball Draft, Part II

So, continuing on from before with Round 7:

1. Chris Davis IamJabrone
2. Ryan Zimmerman Black Sox
3. Ryan Ludwick Hats for Bats
4. Francisco Rodríguez O.N. Thugs
5. Rafael Furcal Muddy Mush H...
6. Troy Tulowitzki Cheeseheads
7. Bobby Jenks TheJimmyDixL...
8. Joe Nathan '90 Reds
9. Mariano Rivera IStillSuckCu...
10. Chipper Jones Westy's Slug...
11. Ervin Santana Phatsnapper
12. Hunter Pence Benver Droncos

The first three picks are interesting. And all three are too big of a question mark for me to really buy into. Chris Davis is only 23, but there's a chance that he doesn't get all of the AB's at 1B for the Rangers (at least, if you believe the Yahoo! depth chart). Zimmerman's only 25, but he's regressed since his very solid rookie season. And Ludwick had a bust-out season last year, at the age of 30, but hadn't really done anything of note before that. So, there's a very legit question as to whether or not that performance was sustainable. In any case, I'm happy that the run on closers hasn't really started, yet. Of course, I was wanting Soria. But I thought that I could get Soria in the following round. Of the top tier, you have K-Rod, Nathan, Rivera, and maybe Lidge. But only K-Rod is on the right side of 30 (27 this season). Maybe Jenks (who's 28) could be considered but, I don't know if he's as established. So, K-Rod's my play. And sure enough, the run on closers starts, and Nathan, Rivera, and Jenks are gone in the 7th. Nothing else really of note - a couple risks at SS, with Furcal and Tulo both coming off injury.

1. Aubrey Huff Benver Droncos
2. Jon Lester Phatsnapper
3. Bobby Abreu Westy's Slug...
4. Brad Lidge IStillSuckCu...
5. Stephen Drew '90 Reds
6. Derrek Lee TheJimmyDixL...
7. Magglio Ordóñez Cheeseheads
8. Jermaine Dye Muddy Mush H...
9. Joakim Soria O.N. Thugs
10. José Valverde Hats for Bats
11. Scott Kazmir Black Sox
12. Jay Bruce IamJabrone

What's funny at this point is that Jay Bruce (pre-rank 80) is available. He's the sort of player that you'd figure that someone would jump really early on in a keeper league. Instead, he drags late. So, when things get around to me with #93 overall, I have a choice. Do I punt on my idea of Soria (pre-rank 99), and go for Jay Bruce? If I go Bruce, I doubt that Soria will be available with my pick in the 9th (#100 overall). I stick with the plan, and pass on my home team's major prospect. And looking at the closers that went between my picks in the 9th and 10th (Valverde, Broxton, Marmol), I was probably right. Bruce falls toC-Lauff at #96 overall, and before that Stephen grabs Kazmir, who I was sort of hoping would be around for me in the 9th. Oh. And Westy gets screwed by the auto-draft.

1. Jonathan Broxton IamJabrone
2. Joba Chamberlain Black Sox
3. Carlos Mármol Hats for Bats
4. Rich Harden O.N. Thugs
5. Chone Figgins Muddy Mush H...
6. Howie Kendrick Cheeseheads
7. Edinson Vólquez TheJimmyDixL...
8. Javier Vázquez '90 Reds
9. A.J. Burnett IStillSuckCu...
10. Torii Hunter Westy's Slug...
11. David Price Phatsnapper
12. Ryan Doumit Benver Droncos

So at the point, the closers are pretty much milked for quality. I got the 2 that I really wanted in Soria and K-Rod. At this point, it looks like it's time to go back to starting pitching. Normally, I'd go with the Reds player, but I was a little nervous with Volquez down the stretch last season, and was wondering if the league had caught up with him. The safe pick is Roy Oswalt, who is still on the board, surprisingly, but he's 32, which puts him on the wrong side of 30 for my draft. The upside pick is David Price, who looks to be phenomenal. Instead, I go with a more established, sort of snake-bit player in Rich Harden, who is still only 27, despite being in the majors for a while now. I normally don't root for Cubbies, but I've been a Harden fan since his days in Oakland. The rest of the round is more starting pitching, followed by Westy getting screwed by the auto-draft.

Also, of note, you'll see that the next catcher drafted after the Ianetta pick is Ryan Doumit, the lats pick of the 9th round. That's why I was suggesting that the Ianetta pick was a panic pick. But on to the 10th...

1. Robinson Canó Benver Droncos
2. Zack Greinke Phatsnapper
3. Raúl Ibañez Westy's Slug...
4. Roy Oswalt IStillSuckCu...
5. Mike Aviles '90 Reds
6. Carlos Zambrano TheJimmyDixL...
7. Carlos Peña Cheeseheads
8. Joey Votto Muddy Mush H...
9. Brian Fuentes O.N. Thugs
10. Ricky Nolasco Hats for Bats
11. Jayson Werth Black Sox
12. Matt Capps IamJabrone

In any case, the 10th round starts off with Cano (a huge question mark, but a potentially huge pick in the10th), going off the board, Rupert drafting another so-so performing "upside" pitcher (5 out of 6 rounds are SP), and Westy getting screwed by the auto-draft. So, it's business as usual. Greg continues to go with risky youth, while my guy Joey Votto goes off the board right before I have a chance to get him. At this point, I think that I can get another couple closers, before I go back to concentrate on offense. Brian Fuentes is on the board. He's young (24), and will close for a winning team. Bingo. I do consider Capps, who's 26, but stick w/ Fuentes. Also entering my thought process were Nolasco and Verlander, who are both 26. But I liked the idea of going closer-closer in the 10th and 11th, and being set there.

1. Jhonny Peralta IamJabrone
2. Justin Verlander Black Sox
3. Max Scherzer Hats for Bats
4. B.J. Ryan O.N. Thugs
5. Matt Wieters Muddy Mush H...
6. Matt Cain Cheeseheads
7. Chris Young TheJimmyDixL...
8. Justin Upton '90 Reds
9. J.J. Hardy IStillSuckCu...
10. Michael Young Westy's Slug...
11. Adam Wainwright Phatsnapper
12. Kerry Wood Benver Droncos

At this point, my offense is sort of weak. I really need to find a SS and 2B at some point before I get stuck w/ the dregs. And I need to make sure that I get some pop at 1B/OF. But I've found that I have a knack for finding a little offense in free agency. So, I go with BJ Ryan in the 11th, over Kerry Wood. Uber prospect Matt Wieters comes off the board right afterwards. And Greg continues to go young w/ Justin Upton. More middle infielders go off the board, and I'm left sweating a little bit, going into the 12th round.

1. Francisco Cordero Benver Droncos
2. Lastings Milledge Phatsnapper
3. Scott Baker Westy's Slug...
4. Brandon Morrow IStillSuckCu...
5. Ryan Dempster '90 Reds
6. Nelson Cruz TheJimmyDixL...
7. Chris Young Cheeseheads
8. Brett Myers Muddy Mush H...
9. Derek Jeter O.N. Thugs
10. Vernon Wells Hats for Bats
11. Andre Ethier Black Sox
12. Johnny Damon IamJabrone

Again, the round opens up w/ Rupert overpaying for potential, and Westy getting screwed by the auto-draft. Greg gets himself a solid starter. A couple high potential OF go to CJ and Cheeseheads. And I'm left with the choice of Derek Jeter or Vernon Wells, both of whom have definitely become big time value picks (pre-ranked 89th and 84th, respectively). I figure that SS is the toughest spot to fill, so I go with Jeter at #141 overall, and am very happy about it in the 12th (as opposed to getting stuck with him in the 7th or 8th).

Correction - Cheeseheads' Chris Young is actually the tall starting pitcher, and not the black D'Backs OF.

So, after 12 rounds, I'm pretty happy. My pitching looks to be set for the most part. Lincecum, Peavy, and Harden as starters. K-Rod, Soria, Fuentes, and BJ Ryan at closer. I've got a 3B (Wright), a SS (Jeter), a C (Martin), and 2 OF (Dunn and Markakis) that I'm very happy with. That's 10 guys who are under 30 (so I was able to accomplish that goal). And both Ryan (33) and Jeter (35) have a few more years left in the tank.

Of course, I still need to get some pop at 1B and UTIL, I really need a 2B, and a couple more OF. I will need to find a couple more starters, and maybe one more closer so that I can have some flexibility in June when teams realize that they need closers. And one thing that I may consider is going w/ a 2nd C (which I'm normally against), since the expanded rosters allow people to play more games at C, if desired. That could potentially lead to a swing of 15 R, 25 RBI, and 10 HR, if people max out their games at C (which they almost never did with the shortened rosters).

But at this point, I'm looking at winning SV, and likely the rate stats (since I'm running heavy on closers), and being really competitive in W, L, and K, as well. My offense should be solid, at the very least. I'll have really good OBP, solid SLG, and I've got a couple of guys who can get 10-20 SB for me. The power is a little in question, but Markakis looks to be a stud in the coming years, so maybe I'll be alright there.

In my mind, seasons are won by a) not whiffing on your first 3 picks, and b) looking deep and finding value in the 2nd half of the draft. Next post, we'll talk about the 2nd half...

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

3 comments:

Greg said...


In my mind, seasons are won by a) not whiffing on your first 3 picks, and b) looking deep and finding value in the 2nd half of the draft. Next post, we'll talk about the 2nd half...


I can't wait for your analysis of my Eric Byrnes pick. (I think I just now read he's projected to be the Snakes 4th outfielder...)

clauff said...

Greg,

I was looking at Byrnes in the last 2 rounds, but did read that he was the 4th OF. I imagine i'll be seeing his name on the waiver wire any day now.

Roland - love the recurring theme of Rupert overpaying and Westy getting screwed by the auto-draft. Pretty much sums it up.

Pauly said...

Good read!

I got very little love (or hate) in this analysis though.