UPL Baseball Draft : Ecclesiastes 3:1

It's interesting to see the different strategies that the various teams employed in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft. Obviously, with the start of the UPL keeper era, the draft takes on different meaning. First of all, the first round of the draft is really the 19th round... but that's a little misleading. In theory, the top prospects (like Heyward or Strasburg this year, who are probably gone by the 10th round if we were drafting fresh) who are available make the top of the draft much more valuable. And there are probably a handful of players who weren't top 18 on deeper teams who would have been 15th or 16th rounders. So there's some additional value there. The result is that there is a bit of a break point at the top of the draft, much like in football, where there's a handful of picks at the top who are worth a lot more, and then the next bunch of picks are worth roughly the same. So you get this interesting dynamic where trades matter, and swapping spots in a round could be a major issue.

But the thing that really makes this draft interesting is that different teams have very different goals. The teams at the top of the draft are probably looking to re-load, an probably should have a very forward looking approach. This is evidenced by Pauly's approach to the draft. On the other hand, teams looking to win, such as the '90 Reds, are looking for ways to round out their team. And folks like OD just go with the Best Red Sox Player Available strategy. And Westy posted on Facebook that his top 7 was: 1. Reimold, 2. Beltre, 3. Buchholz, 4. Loney, 5. Escobar, 6. Fowler, 7. Heyward. So this is evidence that some people don't use a strategy, so much as just guess blindly :-)

What makes it interesting is that these teams with very different goals are thrown into the same game, and some of the choices, which may be perfectly rational to one team, may be entirely nuts to another. In that sense, there's a time and a place for any strategy. And so long as you have a broader goal in mind, there's probably not a "wrong" move.

So here's how the O.N. Thugs' draft looked. You'll notice the lack of a 3rd round pick, and that I had lower than expected spots in the 4th and 8th. That was courtesy of my Kerry Wood trade, which we will know the results of in late May or June.

Round	Pick (overall)	Player
1	10	Aroldis Chapman
2	17	Travis Hafner
4	49	Troy Glaus
5	62	Josh Willingham
6	69	Skip Schumaker
7	88	Joe Nathan
8	101	George Sherrill

So what was the strategy? Well, the original plan was to go find some power, and to go old school... really old school. Not just in terms of older, players, but also the return to the O.N. Thugs' historical strategy of going with veterans. The idea is this. You build a base that will last for a few years, and then it's winning time. So this year, the plan was to find some undervalued hitters. Travis Hafner, Troy Glaus, Josh Willingham, and Adam LaRoche were high on the list. I also needed to pick up a 2B, but the pickings were slim. Martin Prado, Casey McGehee, Skip Schumaker, and Akinori Iwamora were the four that I was looking at. I didn't really have a preference for any of them, since I don't see Prado as a potential top 13 player (which is the magic number if we have future expansion), and probably not even a top 18. My plan was to just wait it out there. Finally, I had my eye on some of the less-heralded closers or potential closers (Capps, Dotel, Rauch, Perez, Madson, Sherrill, Bard) and a couple starters that I had on my roster at some point last season (Sheets, Latos, Marcum).

Now in terms of execution, drafting in the UPL has become a little less predictable than in the past. First of all, there are fewer auto-drafting teams (save for the O.N. Thugs when we sleep in), and the teams that are auto-drafting have generally pre-ranked players. And the other thing is that our preferences vary greatly from the Yahoo! pre-ranks. Part of it is our league format (6x6, 13 teams, 26-man rosters), and of course that we're a keeper league. So, players that would be "off the radar" in a public league may not be quite as "off the radar" as you may think. So whereas in the past, I'd often let the guy I really wanted slide a round, knowing that he'd still be there when I drafted again, I now tend to just grab the guy that I want now, and let things sort out afterward.

I had assumed that the top of the draft would go Heyward, Strasburg, Chapman, particularly since '90 Reds was, well, a Reds fan. I was ready to just pick Hafner, then get Glaus on the way back, and hope that Willingham would still be there in the 4th. So the draft starts off, and things go off like this:

Pick	Player	Team
1	Jason Heyward	Hats for Bats
2	Stephen Strasburg	Black Sox
3	Octavio Dotel	'90 Reds
4	Kevin Correia	Benver Droncos
5	Marlon Byrd	TheJimmyDixLongballs
6	Nolan Reimold	Muddy Mush Heads
7	Martín Prado	Phatsnapper
8	Adrián Béltre	Cheeseheads
9	Kevin Slowey	SuckMyknucklballs
10	Aroldis Chapman	O.N. Thugs
11	Clay Buchholz	Westy's Sluggers
12	Alcides Escobar	IamJabrone
13	Alberto Callaspo	Milwaukee Whiffers

It starts off as I had figured with Heyward and Strasburg, but then before the draft started '90 Reds was joking (or so we thought) about picking Dotel with the 3rd pick... and I was thinking to myself that I hoped that he wasn't joking... which he wasn't.

Then Benver goes with a relatively safe pick in Correia, who was probably the highest pre-ranked player left at that point.

JimmyDix makes a strange pick with Marlon Byrd, especially given that he hates the Cubs, who's been OK the last few years in a platoon role in TEX (figure that a conservative projection is something like .350/.450, with about 17 HR).

Reimold's getting a lot of hype, but was a 26-year old rookie last year who put up alright numbers (.365/.466 with 15HR in about 400 plate appearances).

Phatsnapper takes Prado, which basically settles the question of me drafting for positional need.

Now Adrian Beltre is an interesting pick, to me. He's 31 this season, had one great season in 2004 (which looks awfully suspicious now), and has a career .325/.453, and probably projects out to 25 HR, 80 R, and 90 RBI over 162 games. You can make a case for his numbers going up with the change in scenery (which I'm not entirely sold on), but I don't know if I'd go down that path. And then Slowey gets picked in the spot in front of me.

Slowey's a 26-year old pitcher, with a career 4.39/1.28 with just under 7 K/9 (though he went 10-3).

Now with all of these players who were picked 3 through 9, I don't see the potential for a top 18 status. And frankly, I didn't see it with the players who I was targeting... so when Chapman falls into my lap at #10, I'm pretty happy. I had to do a double-take to make sure that it was actually the case. But sure enough. He was there. So, it takes the O.N. Thugs roughly 4 minutes to abandon the plan of getting some veteran power, and jumping on Chapman. Now, I certainly don't expect Chapman to be a major contributor for the O.N. Thugs this year (or even in the first part of 2011). But I get to have a free look at him, and will probably keep him on as a keeper, so that I'll really have a 2-year look at him as a potential cog in the machine. The expanded rosters make hanging on to these prospects a real possibility, which was precisely why we expanded to 26-man rosters.

So, my concern turned toward getting some potential power on the roster. The first order of business was to lock up Hafner with the 2nd round. After that, I had a bit of a wait on my hands. I was hoping that I could get either Glaus, Willingham, or LaRoche in the 4th. It turns out that all 3 were still available. I figured that Glaus would be last one picked by someone else, but he was the one that I thought had the biggest upside (career 162-game averages are .360/.500, 35HR, 96R, 101RBI), but was underpriced because of his age and his injury. So Glaus goes my way in the 4th. At that point, I was pretty happy because the odds were that Willingham or LaRoche would still be available when I picked in the 5th. And sure enough, when my turn comes back, both are available, so I go with Willingham, who I like quite a bit, and actually considered keeping in my top 18 (he's basically Brad Hawpe, only he plays in a pitcher's park and not Coors Field).

Now, at this point, I'm pondering my options. The pitchers that I had at the top of my list considered were basically gone. I still didn't have a 2B, and we were down to Schumaker and Iwamura at that point. So, I had to figure out whether I wanted to go after LaRoche and hope that one of my 2B would still be there next time I was picking. Now, I was somewhat lucky because I was going to have 2 picks before C-Lauff would pick again. I had joked about maybe just not playing a 2B, and C-Lauff may have messed with me by picking up extra 2B with his roster space (I did this to him a couple years ago in football, after his QB went down, I picked up the next 2 highest rated free agent QB's just to mess with him). But I also had '90 Reds messing around with his "Frankenstein" strategy for RP and 2B, where he was just drafting random players in the hopes of cutting off body parts and sewing them back together to make a reasonable player. So I was a bit worried that he may have just gone with Schumaker. It turns out that I probably panicked a bit, when I picked Schumaker in the 6th, rather than LaRoche, since Iwamura didn't get drafted at all. Oh well. Relatively small price to pay.

What was interesting was that as I was taking my time on this pick, I noticed that Joe Nathan was available. This was problematic. Jeff had actually wanted Nathan as one of his 2nd wave expansion picks, but I had messed it up. So, I was hoping that Nathan would fall to me, so I could grab him and offer him back to Jeff for the player that I had accidentally placed on his team. I didn't really want Nathan, but figured that it was the right thing to do. We'll see if Jeff wants him or not. Now what's funny is that since then, I've had some inquiries about Nathan. The plan is to just stash him on the DL and see how his rehab looks next spring. But I suppose that a trade wouldn't be a terrible option.

My last pick ended up being George Sherrill. This was a total guess. But, he was on my radar because he played really well for me last year, though his value plummeted after he got traded to LAD to be the set-up man. But, there's always the chance that he could be traded off to MIN or somewhere else where they need a closer.

Now, as you look at my list of picks, I think that it makes sense for my team, which looks to be good with pitching, but needed some bats to put me over the top. I don't have the luxury of waiting for prospects like LaPorta, Gamel, etc. Hafner, Glaus, and Willingham are going to be batting 4 or 5 for their teams. Typical numbers from that spot in the batting order project out to at least 90RBI, and they're are all pretty high OPS guys, so that should bode well, if they get playing time.

Of course, these players, save Chapman, probably don't make a lot of sense for a team that is looking to rebuild, like Hats for Bats, Benver Droncos, JimmyDix, etc. So that adds an interesting wrinkle. You're likely drafting against the teams that have the same goals as you, but even then, the specific needs are probably different enough so that you aren't really competing for the same players. Even with me and '90 Reds needing 2B, our drafts were probably like ships passing in the night, with the possible exception of Casey McGehee, who I had on my radar - even the closers were gone before I would started thinking about them.

So when you take a step back and see these wildly different takes on a draft, you really have to put it back into context and realize that "optimal" choices are based on a lot of assumption. I think that they key assumptions are whether or not your team is in contention or rebuilding, and how many of the keeper slots you have filled up. If you've only got like 12 firm keepers, then you can take more chances on players who may be keeper material. But if your team runs deep, and you're looking to win? Keeper status probably isn't your concern, unless something falls into your lap, like Chapman did in my case. In all honesty, most of the players that Pauly listed on his top 30 weren't even on my radar, simply because I'm needing stats now. For example, had my team been a great hitting, so-so pitching team, a player like Andy Pettite, who Pauly would absolutely never draft (and rightfully so) would absolutely be on my radar, and probably relatively high on my radar.

Now what's really interesting is when you see some teams that you'd figure to be looking to win, instead draft like they're rebuilding. As I look through the drafts, I'm a bit surprised at how much youth Westy and C-Lauff took on. That either means that they really think that their top 18 is golden, or they're looking to rebuild. Either way, I don't think that's an optimal way to go, if they're trying to win now. Obviously, Greg spent a lot of time filling holes, looking to win now. On the other hand, Rupert's draft (which I believe was auto-drafted) tells me that he either is trying to add veterans to win now, or that he just didn't pre-rank players and got stuck w/ the computer's picks. OD appears to be happy to continue his strategy of picking Red Sox players, along with a couple vets along the way.

On the flip side, some teams that were definitely in rebuilding mode, didn't really continue that path in the draft. JimmyDix is a prime example, though his team is quickly moving into contender territory, with his acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez and (soon) BJ Upton. So maybe he's looking to get into the top 4 this year. But the Milwaukee Whiffers' draft didn't really do much to help him rebuild. Nor did the Cheeseheads' draft. But teams like Benver Droncos, Hats for Bats, and the Black Sox seem to have helped along their rebuilding processes in this draft. And in a vacuum, I'd like the Mush Heads' draft, though I'm not sure how good of a draft it was for a rebuilding team.

As for the O.N. Thugs? We're always convinced that we're going to win, even when we're in 10th place at the all-star break :-) But I think that between Hafner, Glaus, and Willingham, I'll get 2 good performances, which will go a long way into putting my offense back in the top half of the league. Though to be honest, much like last season, Wright/Markakis are going to be the major factors. If both are good, then I've got the inside track. If only one is good, then I'll need to get creative. And if neither is good, then it will be really, really hard to get back into the winner's circle.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Check your Man Crush at the Door

A wealth of energy and time is spent debating the rational approaches to fantasy stardom on the UPL blog. And, I'm glad it's here because I learn a lot from people who think more strategically than I do. However, competition is inherently emotional, so I'd like to touch on the irrational phenomenon known as the "Man Crush".

We all have them. We fall head over heels for a hurler's "stuff", or become enchanted by the sweet swing of a switch-hitter, even when the numbers suggest that our burning love is misplaced. And yet, there's something about that player that makes you draft him just one more year, in the hopes that he meets your unmet expectations. I remember Roland's infatuation for all things Tony Armas Jr. in the early 2000's. He would always wax poetic about how great Tony Armas' stuff was, and then be let down by a sub-par, injury riddled season. For me, that "man crush" is Francisco Liriano.

Despite Roland's declaration that the Liriano Era should be over for the Jabrones, I found myself taking him in my top 18 draft picks. Why you ask? Although Liriano's magical 2006 season is a distant memory for many, for some reason, Liriano's dominating employment of the changeup/fastball/slider in that season that lead him to a 12-3 record with a 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 144 Ks in 121 innings gets my heart racing. He looked like Johan Santana's protege and mini-me. Since then, he's dealt with Tommy John surgery, confidence issues, and overall bad control. I was all set to let him go as Roland espoused, and then this came out in January - "Francisco Making Strides in Winter Ball", "Francisco Liriano Shows Serious Stuff", and "LIriano's Winter Work Has Twins Excited". So, like a teenager who can't let a past relationship die, I did the comparison of calling back an old flame who calls you after a year of radio silence. I asked him to be on my team, yet again, hoping to have the Liriano that is closer to the '06 version, rather than the disasterous '09 version.

So, why do I share all of this? Because it's important to identify these tendencies in all of us and manage them accordingly. Some of us may have the discipline to say no to the pitcher with the scintilating stuff who we know is bad for us, but some of us don't. And, if we recognize it early on, we can begin to develop more rationally based strategies for managing it. For me, I knew that I couldn't resist Francisco Liriano, but I also know that I don't have to rely on him to put up great pitching numbers this year. Knowing this, he becomes a nice 18th round lottery ticket and potentially frees up some room for me to trade one of my better starters. He offers me talent that we've seen in the majors that no other player available to me does.

Perhaps, you're facing or did face this same scenario. What do you do? Counter your emotional impulses for certain players by making sure you can run the risk of chasing a player that may be harmful to your UPL health. And, if he ends up being a heartbreaker, make sure you have some other able-shouldered players to cry on.

Creation and the Expanding Universe, Part II

And on the 7th day...

...

...we looked at more potential franchise cornerstones for our creation.

Phatsnapper

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Madison Bumgarner (21)	0	0	0	10	1.80	1.10
Neftali Feliz (22)	1	0	2	39	1.74	0.68
David Price (25)	10	7	0	102	4.42	1.35
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Kyle Blanks (24)	24	10	22	1	0.355	0.514
Jack Cust	88	25	70	4	0.356	0.417
Yunel Escobar (28)	89	14	76	5	0.377	0.436
Brad Hawpe	82	23	86	1	0.384	0.519
Matt LaPorta (25)	29	7	21	2	0.308	0.442
Casey McGehee (28)	58	16	66	0	0.360	0.499
Nolan Reimold (27)	49	15	45	8	0.365	0.466
Travis Snider (22)	34	9	29	1	0.328	0.419
Rickie Weeks (28)	28	9	24	2	0.340	0.517
Michael Young	76	22	68	8	0.374	0.518

Much like the O.N. Thugs' roster, there are all sorts of goodies available here. We don't know much about Madison Bumgarner, other than he looked solid last year getting his cup of tea w/ the big leaguers, and that he's young. Normally, you don't think about non-closing relievers, but Feliz is really young, and appears to be a closer in waiting. On offense, Hawpe is probably the most stable production, and Young is probably the most established player. LaPorta, Blanks, and Snider are all pretty highly regarded youngsters. I think that Michael Young's move to 3B will extend his stay w/ Texas. My opinion? I'm tempted by Price, though he hasn't shown enough to lock him down in my top 12, I don't think. The Moneyball approach probably says to go w/ Hawpe, since he's proven, plays in Colorado, and still only 31. But I've always had a soft spot for Michael young, plus his production at SS this year, and 3B in the future should count as a bonus.

Quick aside: I just don't know about those 24/25 year old prospects who haven't proven it, yet. I'm of the belief that true elite sort of players make an impact in the majors by 22/23. This is a bit of an old school, scout's approach. But it just seems that the guys who get to the majors late don't have the otherworldly ability to extend their careers. Basically the theory is that everyone learns on the job, that the learning increases your overall production, but that you can only learn so much. The phenoms don't really make use of the things they learn until they slow down, and then are able to maintain their dominance. On the other hand, the players that make an impact in the show late have already done their learning, and have maxed themselves out. Once their skills take them down, it's hard for them to learn more to keep themselves on top. So, in that sense, guys like LaPorta seem like they could make an impact for a few years, as they hit their peaks, but it's hard to see them extending this into their peaks into the mid-30's.

Black Sox

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Zach Duke	11	16	0	106	4.06	1.31
Frank Francisco	2	3	25	57	3.83	1.11
Jason Marquis	15	13	0	115	4.04	1.38
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Mike Cameron	78	24	70	7	0.342	0.452
Jorge Cantú (28)	67	16	100	3	0.345	0.443
Chris Iannetta (27)	41	16	52	0	0.344	0.460
José López (26)	69	25	96	3	0.303	0.463
Nyjer Morgan	74	3	39	42	0.369	0.388
Cody Ross (29)	73	24	90	5	0.321	0.469

Here, it appears that the choices are Jose Lopez, Chris Iannetta, and Frank Francisco. It's hard to pass up 25 HR and 96 RBI from 2B, particularly with a relatively young guy. But that .303 OBP is scary to me. Iannetta is worth considering, since he's a C, and has the Coors Field thing going for him, and is relatively young. But my recommendation is to go closer again w/ Frank Francisco. Texas seems to always have high SV guys, and even if his rate stats are only OK, he'll be a trade piece, if needed.

MuddyMushHeads

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Johnny Cueto (24)	11	11	0	132	4.41	1.36
Tommy Hunter (24)	9	6	0	64	4.10	1.30
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Casey Blake	84	18	79	3	0.363	0.468
Rafael Furcal	92	9	47	12	0.335	0.375
Felipe López	88	9	57	6	0.383	0.427
Grady Sizemore (28)	73	18	64	13	0.343	0.445

Ordinarily, you'd be estatic with the chance to add someone like Cueto to your roster, since he's young, definitely improving, and seems to have all-star potential. But then you look down the list and see Grady Sizemore, who was dinged up last year, but is still a Yahoo! Top 25 player, and even if you discount his 2009 season off of his career numbers, still figures to be a Top 50-60 sort of player. Makes this an easy choice.

Also, as I was talking w/ CJ, one of our resident White Sox fans. She starts laughing and says something to the effect of, "He knows that Dye still isn't signed, yet, doesn't he?" When the team drafting first makes fun of your keeper choices, you may be in for some mocking and/or a long season.

JimmyDixLongballs

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Mark Buehrle	13	10	0	105	3.84	1.25
Kevin Millwood	13	10	0	123	3.67	1.34
James Shields (28)	11	12	0	167	4.14	1.32
Edinson Vólquez (27)	4	2	0	47	4.35	1.33
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Michael Cuddyer	93	32	94	6	0.342	0.520
James Loney (26)	73	13	90	7	0.357	0.399
Alexei Ramírez (29)	71	15	68	14	0.333	0.389
Colby Rasmus (24)	72	16	52	3	0.307	0.407
Nick Swisher	84	29	82	0	0.371	0.498
Ryan Theriot	81	7	54	21	0.343	0.369

Here, we see some more options. Volquez ordinarily would be the way to go, but he's coming off of surgery, and may not be right until 2011. Buehrle, Shields, and Millwood are established, solid vets, w/ limited ceilings. Chances are, one of those players will be available in the 2nd round of expansion, so I let them pass, especially since there's so much other SP available. On offense, there's some attraction to Rasmus, since he's only 24, and Loney is this very athletic player who just can't seem to hit at home, nor has he developed the power that you'd expect from someone his size. But I think that the money play here is Cuddyer, who's 31, and appears to be playing at the level that they were expecting of him 5 or 6 years ago.

Hats For Bats

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Erik Bedard	5	3	0	90	2.82	1.19
Derek Lowe	15	10	0	111	4.67	1.52
Jeff Niemann (27)	13	6	0	125	3.94	1.35
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Corey Hart (28)	64	12	48	11	0.335	0.418
Nick Johnson	71	8	62	2	0.426	0.405
Ryan Ludwick	63	22	97	4	0.329	0.447
Bengie Molina	52	20	80	0	0.285	0.442
Juan Rivera	72	25	88	0	0.332	0.478
Marco Scutaro	100	12	60	14	0.379	0.409
Vernon Wells	84	15	66	17	0.311	0.400

Here, you've got a couple interesting choices. Bedard's the best pitcher, but he's hurt, an dmay not be back until this summer. Derek Lowe's the brand name, and will probably be solid in ATL. Niemann's the younger, less proven, but probably option. On offense, Vernon Wells is probably the most talented. Juan Rivera is the safest bet to put up solid numbers. Molina gives you 20 HR and 80 RBI at C. Scutaro should score 100+ runs this year playing everyday in Boston. And Nick Johnson is a high OBP guy who should get some counting numbers in that Yankees lineup. You probably want to gamble with Bedard or Wells, or go with a relatively safe, relatively young pitcher in Niemann. I think that I go with Niemann here.

Benver Droncos

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Brian Fuentes	1	5	48	46	3.93	1.40
Hiroki Kuroda	8	7	0	87	3.76	1.14
Jarrod Washburn	9	9	0	100	3.78	1.19
Kerry Wood	3	3	20	63	4.25	1.38
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Marlon Byrd	66	20	89	8	0.329	0.479
Franklin Gutiérrez (27)	85	18	70	16	0.339	0.425
Brandon Inge	71	27	84	2	0.314	0.406
Garrett Jones (29)	45	21	44	10	0.372	0.567

Keep it simple. Fuentes. Anytime you can dig up the SV leader for all of baseball? You take him. He may not be in your long term plans, but there are a number of teams that would trade a legit position player for him.

So what does the roster look like now?

SP - Jurrjens, Lilly, Oswalt, Niemann,
RP - Wagner, Fuentes, Francisco
1B - Butler
2B/SS - Cabrera
SS/3B - Young
OF - Sizemore, Cuddyer

This is starting to look like a pretty decent team, and a top half finish starts to look like a legit possibility. You've got a couple relatively young arms (Jurrjens and Niemann) to go with a couple vets (Oswalt and Lilly). You have 3 closers, who you can hang on to, or trade for legit talent. You could look for one or two more SP, and looking for potential closers could make for trade pieces. But you've got the core of a nice pitching staff.

On offense, you have a potential superstar (Sizemore) some established talent (Young, Cuddyer) to go with some youth (Butler and Cabrera). Most teams are going to be scrambling for a C and a middle IF position, anyway, so you're not really missing out. Now, you need to round out the lineup with another OF, and maybe a couple potential production guys at UTIL.

Some of the rosters will still have some strong players left after the next 6 protected players, so you'll get some more help there.

And on the 8th day? Well, now it's time to prep for the next round of keepers, and get ready for the draft.

In any case, we'll see what the Milwaukee Whiffers choose to do (whose bright idea was it to place a 2nd UPL team in Milwaukee, anyway?).

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Creation and the Expanding Universe, Part I

Our first ever UPL Expansion draft is upon us, and it's looking like there is going to be some talent available for our expansion teams. So if I were playing creator, how would I try to bring a franchise out of the cosmic mess known as the expansion draft?

I'm glad you asked.

In this 2-part series, we'll break down what's available, and of what's available, what's worth thinking about. First up, the top 6 teams from 2009. Then the bottom 6 teams, along with any possible changes. I've added ages for players under 30.

'90 Reds

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Homer Bailey (24)	8	5	0	86	4.53	1.47
Edwin Jackson (27)	13	9	0	161	3.62	1.26
Joe Nathan	2	2	47	89	2.1	0.93
Wandy Rodriguez	14	12	0	193	3.02	1.24
Javier Vazquez	15	10	0	238	2.87	1.03
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Billy Butler (24)	78	21	93	1	0.362	0.492
Chris Coghlan (25)	84	9	47	8	0.390	0.460
Chipper Jones	80	18	71	4	0.388	0.430

Interestingly, the best offensive option, Billy Butler is also the youngest option. Joe Nathan is worth thinking about stashing away for the year, but the problem is that it may be a 2-year commitment. Javy Vazquez is probably the best pitcher, though he's old (34). Wandy Rodriguez is only 31. My recommendation? Take the young talent, even if he is on KC: Billy Butler, 1B.

IAmJabrone

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Clay Buchholz (26)	7	4	0	68	4.21	1.38
Matt Capps (27)	4	8	27	46	5.80	1.66
Jorge De La Rosa (29)	16	9	0	193	4.38	1.38
Ryan Dempster	11	9	0	172	3.65	1.30
Francisco Liriano (27)	5	13	0	122	5.80	1.55
Billy Wagner	1	1	0	26	1.72	1.02
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Johnny Damon	107	24	82	12	0.365	0.489
Chris Davis (24)	48	21	59	0	0.284	0.442
Jason Kubel (28)	73	28	103	1	0.369	0.539
Mike Napoli (29)	60	20	56	3	0.350	0.492
Ian Stewart (25)	74	25	70	7	0.322	0.464

Here, you see a couple options. Kubel gives you a nice balance of production and age, though he may lose some AB this year with the acquistion of Thome. Stewart qualifies at 2B and 3B, and gives you decent counting numbers and a reasonable SLG (though his OBP is bad). Liriano is a few years removed from his status as the next Johan Santana, though he is following his former mentor's injury path. He's worth considering in later position, but probably not in the top 12. A better option would be to take a shot at Billy Wagner, who could have strong trade value if he gets off to a good start. De la Rosa seems to have found his stride, and will have a good team behind him. My recommendation? Take the shot at Billy Wagner, since he could have huge trade value by June.

Westy's Sluggers

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Scott Baker (29)	15	9	0	162	4.37	1.19
Matt Garza (26)	8	12	0	189	3.95	1.26
Jair Jurrjens (24)	14	10	0	152	2.60	1.21
Leo Núñez (27)	4	6	26	60	4.06	1.25
Carlos Zambrano	9	7	0	152	3.77	1.38
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Russell Branyan	64	31	76	2	0.347	0.520
Rajai Davis	65	3	48	41	0.360	0.423
Nate McLouth (29)	86	20	70	19	0.352	0.436

Here, the cream of the crop appears to be Jurrjens, who put up a very good season on all fronts, save for his K numbers, and is still only 24. Nate McLouth is the other option - anytime you get a chance to get a 20-20 guy who will chip in solid R and RBI w/out killing your OBP or SLG (though they weren't great last yera), you have to consider it. The name out there is Big Z. My recommendation? Don't overthink this. Young arms w/ big league success are gold. Take Jair Jurrjens.

O.N. Thugs

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Rich Harden (28)	9	9	0	171	4.09	1.34
Ben Sheets	-	-	-	-	-	-
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Elvis Andrus (22)	72	6	40	33	0.329	0.373
Julio Borbón (24)	30	4	20	19	0.376	0.414
Asdrubal Cabrera (24)	81	6	68	17	0.361	0.438
Alex Gordon (26)	28	6	22	5	0.324	0.378
Todd Helton	79	15	86	0	0.416	0.489
Russell Martin (27)	63	7	53	11	0.352	0.329
Jorge Posada	55	22	81	1	0.363	0.522
Josh Willingham	70	24	61	4	0.367	0.496

All sorts of goodies here. Harden has been intriguing with his stuff for a few years now, and was great in 2008. Of course, he's always injury prone. Another question mark is Ben Sheets, who's back throwing in the 90's, but is coming off of major surgery last year. There's all sorts of young talent available, between Andrus, Borbon, Cabrera, and Alex Gordon, and even Russell Martin's only 27. Posada's probably the best player, though he's old. My recommendation? Again, relatively young, proven arms are gold in this format. I've been intrigued by Harden all these years, and it would be like I was admitting I was wrong if I didn't go Harden... but the smart play here is probably to go with the most reliable of the youngsters, Asdrubal Cabrera, who's slated to be in the 2 hole between Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo in that Indians lineup.

SuckMyKnuckleballs

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Gavin Floyd (27)	11	11	0	163	4.06	1.23
Tim Hudson	2	1	0	30	3.61	1.46
Roy Oswalt	8	6	0	138	4.12	1.24
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Mark DeRosa	78	23	78	3	0.319	0.433
Hideki Matsui	62	28	90	0	0.367	0.509
Magglio Ordóñez	54	9	50	3	0.376	0.428
Scott Rolen	76	11	67	5	0.368	0.455
Kurt Suzuki (27)	74	15	88	8	0.313	0.421

This is sort of interesting. While the O.N. Thugs' roster was full of young talent, this roster is not. Roy Oswalt is probably the best option for pitching. Hideki Matsui may have a couple years left in the tank and will be hitting 5th or 6th for the Halos. Similar story for Rolen, who will be in the middle of a decent Reds lineup. Magglio Ordonez may be worth thinking about, if you think that he can regain his 2008 form, or better. Best bet here? Take Oswalt, who's still only 33, and probably has another 4-5 strong years left.

Cheeseheads

Player	W	L	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Ted Lilly	12	9	0	151	3.10	1.06
Joel Piñeiro	15	12	0	105	3.49	1.14
Randy Wells (28)	12	10	0	104	3.05	1.28
Player	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Clint Barmes	69	23	76	12	0.294	0.440
Paul Konerko	75	28	88	1	0.353	0.489
Adam LaRoche	78	25	83	2	0.355	0.488
David Ortiz	77	28	99	0	0.332	0.462
Alfonso Soriano	64	20	55	9	0.303	0.423

Here, we see more older vets. The three that pop out should be Ted Lilly, David Ortiz, and Alfonso Soriano. Lilly was his usual solid self, though he lost some time to injury, only loggin 177 IP. Pineiro finally put it together last year, and put up a really good season in STL, and now moves to ANA where he'll be the 3rd starter. He's a couple years younger than Lilly, and worth thinking about. Big Papi was off last year, and still managed 28 HR and 99 RBI, though his rate numbers were sort of painful, and he's struggled so far this spring. Plus, you should be able to trade him to OD at some point... Soriano was just off all of 2009, though he's probably more likely to bounce back that Papi, who appears to be done. I think that the play here is to go with Ted Lilly, and realize that you can get someone like Konerko/LaRoche/Ortiz with the next round of expansion, if you want.

So, it looks like this so far:

SP - Jurrjens, Lilly, Oswalt
RP - Wagner
1B - Butler
2B/SS - Cabrera

I'd be tempted to just go pitching heavy, and go after Harden, who fits the profile for expansion: young, high ceiling. I'd guess that he's a higher ceiling than Cabrera. This strategy sets you up for later, because you always seem to be able to trade pitching. And moreover, you can probably dig up some 20-HR power at 1B fairly easily. However, Butler's just too young to pass up. I'd also consider going with Ian Stewart over Billy Wagner, but Stewart's low rate stats are a little scary, and the potential return for a top closer is big enough for me to pass take a shot at.

Next time, we'll come back and see how the rest of the teams look... here's a hint. There's a Yahoo! top 25 pre-rank player available. And he's only 28.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Fantasy 101: The Run-Down, Heading into Year 3

I just realized that the UPL Blog has just had it's 100th post, and we're closing in on the end of the UPL Blog's 2nd year in existence. Time flies, I suppose. Since the start of the UPL Blog, we've seen two more O.N. Thugs hoops championships, one of which was an unexpected tie w/ UPL Newcomer Stephan. And interestingly enough, we are coming down the stretch again, with another potentially exciting final week of fantasy hoops in play. We have also seen two championships from the Jabrones, the first in 2008 Baseball, followed by a 2008 Football championship, which set up the first potential non-O.N. Thugs Tiger Slam (holding all of the championships, but not in one calendar year) in 2009 Basketball. The UPL Blog has also coincided with a return to the top by the '90 Reds and a new UPL Champion, Dino.

There have been contentious trade scenarios, innovations in our draft orders, and the creation of keeper leagues in our roto formats. And of course, there has been speculation on my part about the potential success of the O.N. Thugs, with mixed results. Interestingly, there has been much less analysis about the O.N. Thugs, and more speculation of the moves of the other franchises of the UPL. I believe that one of the more interesting developments in the UPL is the analysis done in the pre-season analysis, between the draft recaps and the team previews. Those writeups are fun to write, are great for understanding the fantasy landscape, and are great to look back on after the season is over.

One thing that the UPL Blog hasn't been quite as successful at is with it's hope of incorporating the other UPL owners' voices. After all, many folks believe in the power behind the wisdom of the crowds (though, I have to confess that I'm of the opinion that the crowds are generally idiots). C-Lauff and CJ had originally signed on to be co-authors, but have not chimed in quite as much as originally hoped. One of the originally targeted authors, Greg, ventured off on his own to create his own Baseball Fantasy, where UPL banter is prominently featured. And UPL Newcomer Pauly has recently done the same. So there is some other UPL chatter, other than the message boards and the UPL Blog. Hopefully, this will continue to grow.

As always, the goal of this blog is to get an interesting, lively discussion going, and every once in a while, you have me making bold statements and outrageous claims. I don't really know how successful we've been. But in any case, for the UPL Blog, it's 101 posts down, and who knows how many more to go.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 1

The 1st pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

JimmyDixLongballs
History: UPL Newcomer, whose initial foray into baseball in 2008 resulted in a 4th place finish, but then fell to 10th place in 2009.

Tendencies: Our 2nd White Sox fan. Not sure about tendencies, yet, though JimmyDix doesn't appear to be afraid to make a deal from time to time.

2009 Result: 10th place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Evan Longoria, Ian Kinsler, Brian McCann, Gordon Beckham, Kendry Morales, Derek Lee, Nelson Cruz

Pitching Locks: Cliff Lee, Jared Weaver, Bobby Jenks

Probable Keepers: Michael Cuddyer, Nick Swisher, Colby Rasmus, Alexi Ramirez, Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Brad Lidge, Kevin Millwood, James Shields

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Deep offense with some redundancy at 2B and 3B, which is a luxury. Balanced production makes injuries a little less of a concern.

Offensive Question Marks: This offense is generally pretty solid, though the speed is so-so at best. Also, the OBP could be a struggle, with only D-Lee and Swisher as legit OBP guys.

Pitching Strengths: n/a

Pitching Question Marks: Which Cliff Lee will you get - it's probably the one that was awesome down the stretch for PHI, but you're not certain. Jared Weaver started to control his stuff better last year, and is a high ceiling pitcher. Guys like Buehrle and Danks are going to be solid, not great with their rate stats, and you hope that their W-L record justifies their spot on the roster. This isnt' the best way to put together a fantasy rotation, as K's will be a struggle, the ERA and WHIP has a low ceiling, and you have to hope for the best w/ W-L, which you're doing regardless. Two question marks at closer. Lidge was bad last year, and Jenks struggled a bit, as well. Got very unlucky with Edinson Volquez, who you probably can't keep.

2010 Outlook: If the luck flows for JimmyDix' pitching, then this team could be closer to the 4th place team of 2008, than the 10th place team of 2009. But lots of things have to go right. The offense should make this team OK, but the real strength should be the ability to deal some offense to get back some top-end pitching. If I had to put a guess on how things pan out, I'd go with something in the middle of the pack, maybe a little below average like 8th place.

The JimmyDixLongballs are on the clock.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 2

The 3rd pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

Black Sox
History:UPL Newcomer (relatively), with 2 disappointing finishes to begin his UPL Baseball career.

Tendencies: Limited information. Appears to be a White Sox fan (one of two, along with JimmyDix, who comprise the top 2 picks in the 2010 draft... probably not a great thing).

2009 Result: 11th place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder, Andre Ethier, Ryan Zimmerman, Carlos Quentin, Jayson Werth

Pitching Locks: Justin Verlander, Chad Billingsley, Joba Chamberlain, Scott Kazmir, Jonathan Papelbon, Frank Francisco

Probable Keepers: Andrew McCutchen, Nyjer Morgan, Chris Iannetta, Jose Lopez, Jason Marquis, Joey Devine

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Top heavy offense, mainly because they have the largest vegetarian in the history of man. Aside from obvious star power (Hanley and Prince), Ethier is emerging as a legit fantasy starter.

Offensive Question Marks: Carlos Quentin is coming off another injury-plagued season, and has only had one legitimate season (2008), and even then he only played in 130 games. His health would give this team a lot of flexibility. Morgan played well above his career numbers once he got moved to Washington, after he was replaced by McCutchen in Pittsburgh (who is still learning the game). Zimmermann and Werth both had career years - they should both be good in 2010, but replicating the output may be tough.

Pitching Strengths: Justin Verlander is good, and there are 3 other SP with high ceilings. Papelbon is a nice anchor for SV.

Pitching Question Marks: Obviously, the question of which Scott Kazmir you're going to get in 2010 is huge. Do you get the one who was very good in his 6 starts in ANA, or do you get the one who stunk in TAM? With Billingsley, you're going to get some glimpses of greatness, but his 2009 was a step back from his very good 2007 and 2008 campaigns. And of course, you have to hope that Joba gets to be the 5th starter, and not the setup man (unless Mo Rivera goes down).

2010 Outlook: Sometimes you look at a team, and you see exactly why they finished where they did. The offense should be solid, not elite. The pitching will need to get lucky to be above average. This team probably shouldn't be an 11th place team. But getting into the top half will require some effort. Out of 13 teams, let's put them a little higher than last year, maybe 8th.

Now, this leaves us with the winners of the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft Lottery, the JimmyDixLongballs...

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 3

The 3rd pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

'90 Reds
History: 3 time UPL Baseball champion, who has also seen some tough times (10th in 2003, 8th in 2004).

Tendencies: Strategy seems to be evolving. Originally, overvalued starting pitching, at the expense of offense. Currently appears to be looking to build off of elite offensive talent, while patching things together with value in SP. Able to make trades to shore up roster. Seems to get lucky in free agency in successful years (I still can't let go of Bret Boone's 2001* season).

2009 Result: 1st place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Ryan Howard, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton, Pablo Sandoval, Aramis Ramirez, Jason Bartlett

Pitching Locks: Dan Haren, Javy Vazquez, Edwin Jackson, Wandy Rodriguez, Chad Qualls, Brian Wilson

Probable Keepers: Michael Bourn, Carlos Gonzalez, Billy Butler, Manny Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Joe Nathan, Homer Bailey

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Deep offense with some positional flexibility, though Sandoval no longer qualifies at C. Ryan Howard almost single-handedly makes you competitive in HR and RBI. Bourn, Bartlett, and Upton give enough speed to compete for some points. Upton has an ultra-high ceiling.

Offensive Question Marks: Jason Bartlett is coming off of a career year in 2009, at the age of 30, where his OPS was about .190 higher than his previous 2 seasons (where he totaled over 1000 PA's). Which Bartlett will show up? A-Ram is coming off injury, and seems to be more a bit injury prone the last few years. Man-Ram turns 38 this year, is coming off a disastrous 2009* campaign, and has been his usual, unpredictable self, commenting on how this is going to be his last season in LA. Sandoval's weight has been a concern (basically, he's built like me, only he's a bit shorter, and much more skilled) - we'll see if this is something that actually affects performance, and perhaps he can team up with Ryan Howard and Jared for some low fat, Subway $5 footlongs.

Pitching Strengths: Deep SP, with good rate stats across the board. Dan Haren has been a rock for 3 years in a row.

Pitching Question Marks: Obviously, Joe Nathan's situation hurts, and also raises the question of what to do with SV this year. Javy Vazquez, Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson, and Brian Wilson are coming off of career years (all 1 run and about .15 below their career ERA/WHIP going into 2009). Which versions will show up in 2010?

2010 Outlook: Sometimes you look at a team, and you wonder how they did as well as they did. Looking at this roster, there were a lot of players who had career years in 2009 (Wandy, Jackson, Vazquez, Wilson, Bartlett), which explains the 2009 success. It's hard to imagine all of them coming up roses again in 2010. That said, assuming average luck, this team should be good enough to be easily in the top-half of this league. And the management should be strong enough to put the '90 Reds into the top 4. Where in that top 4 is an interesting question. If I was guessing (and I am), I'd say 3rd place.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 4

The 4th pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:

Benver Droncos
History: UPL Regular, who apparently is now in Seoul Korea, enjoying Seoul Food, watching Seoul Train, and driving a Kia Seoul.

Tendencies: Since a 5th place debut in 2005, the Droncos have been mired in a huge slump, finishing last 3 out of the last 4 years.

2009 Result: 12th place

Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano, Hunter Pence, B.J. Upton, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino

Pitching Locks: J.A. Happ, Scott Feldman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Francisco Cordero, Brian Fuentes

Probable Keepers: Vladimir Guerrero, Marlon Byrd, Franklin Gutierrez, Hank Blalock, Garrett Jones, Kerry Wood, Hiroki Kuroda, Brett Anderson

Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Morneau is a quality player to anchor offense. Lots of speed with Upton, Rollins, Victorino. Balance to the team, with many players with 12-20 HR potential.

Offensive Question Marks: Unfortunately, the balance on offense will probably lead to mediocre performance, at best. Rate stats will be problematic, as there are many low to mid OBP guys, and not a ton of power. Bounce back year for Upton and Rollins would be very helpful. And being able to move some speed to get back some pitching or power would appear to be a priority.

Pitching Strengths: Some young talent who had good 2009 seasons (Happ, Jimenez, and Feldman). Two potentially elite closers in Fuentes and Cordero.

Pitching Question Marks: If Kerry Wood bounces back, the relief corps could really help in SV and the rate stats, though Fuentes' rate number last year were a little off. The youth (the three mentioned, plus Brett Anderson) needs to come through, and if so this pitching staff would be above average.

2010 Outlook: The offense looks to be average, given the lack of power and rate stats. However, trading speed for power could be a quick way to change the flavor of this team. The pitching looks to be below average, though if things fall correctly, that could push upwards. This team should be in rebuilding mode, and trying to acquire some more young talent, for a run at the podium next year (or more likely, in 2 seasons). This season? Hopefully staying out of the cellar again, but it will be tough to get into the top half of the league. This feels like a 10th place team.

Now, we move into the winners of the 2010 UPL Lottery...

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)