The Current (?) and Future (?) King

I think that I've done a reasonably nice job offering insight into my UPL-psyche here, and I sort of wonder if it hasn't hurt me a little bit in the UPL. Perhaps I'm thinking a little too highly of myself (or my postings here), but the thought is that I'm making public my thoughts, analysis etc. Hopefully, it makes for interesting reading, as well as a more interesting and competitive UPL.

In any case, I think that the current incarnation of the O.N. Thugs makes for an interesting case study in how one tries to win now, as well as build for the future. As you may recall from my three-part draft recap (Part I, Part II, and Part III), as well as my commentary on my "slingshot" drafting, that was precisely what I was shooting for. Of course, as the season has progressed, I haven't exactly locked up the win now part of the plan. I suspect that gone are the days where I can just run from wire-to-wire and have people looking forward to the next season by the time we hit the midway point. As of now, I'm sitting in 3rd place, which is actually higher than where I've been sitting in UPL roto leagues the last few years. So it's not really a terrible spot to start a 2nd half run (which I seem to have been doing all too often lately, though with pretty amazing success).

So what's put me in the spot where I need to a) wait for my team to get hot, and/or b) make some moves? Part of it is injuries. Carlos Delgado going down probably took away about 12 HR and maybe 20 R and 25 RBI that I was counting on, as well as 100 points in SLG. Jake Peavy going down has cost me a on the order of 5 W and maybe 50 K's. Part of it is players underachieving. David Wright's playing well, but has shorted me about 12 HR, 15 RBI, and 50 points in SLG. Nick Markakis has put up good R and RBI, but has been off since mid-May, and is about 10 HR, and 50 points in OBP and SLG short of expectations. Russell Martin has been brutal this season, and is short about 7 HR, 8 R and 15 RBI, not to mention 100 points in SLG. Rich Harden has been terrible, as well. I was expecting a little more, maybe 4 W, and lower numbers (about 2 L, 1.75 in ERA and about 0.2 in WHIP.

All told, I'm running a little deficit of about 45 HR, 30R, and 55 RBI, and possibly 30 points in SLG from what I was expecting from these hitters, and maybe 9 or 10 W, about 50K, 0.2 in ERA, 0.05 in WHIP. Now, it's not all doom and gloom. Todd Helton's been a nice band-aid at 1B. Adam Dunn's has more RBI than expected. Shin-Soo Choo has swiped a few more bases than I figured, and Gary Sheffield's been solid when he's played. But my offense has definitely been less than stellar.

The pitching has been pretty good, particularly the bullpen. I think that I manage to consistently get lucky with my closers (save for BJ Ryan this year), in that I seem to avoid getting those closers who get enough saves that you have to keep them in, but are getting lit up and kill your ERA and WHIP (like Matt Capps or Brad Lidge this year). And in fact, K-Rod, Soria, Fuentes, and Sherrill have all been lights out this year and have 140 K's in 134 IP. Tim Lineceum has been his usual phenomenal self, and Chris Carpenter is back to his Cy Young contending self. But 2 reliable starting pitchers is at least 2 less than you want.

So what to do? The big part is that you hope that Wright and Markakis pick it up on offense, and that Harden finds his control. You wait for Delgado to come back in a few more weeks to help the stretch run. Ditto for Peavy. But you have to make some other moves. It used to be that free agency was sort of like an extended roster for me. I could pick up and drop players and not worry about people swooping in. That's no longer the case, and free agency is relatively bare of proven performance. So, the alternative is to try to make trades happen. How do you make trades happen? Make sure that your roster is deep, and then look for ways to trade your excess strengths to shore up needs.

A less-successful trade happened earlier in the season when I had to get a band-aid at 2B when Cabrera went down. I ended up moving James Loney (who's still only 25, and was a potential keeper), to rent Orlando Hudson. O-Dog wasn't exactly good, but he helped keep me afloat. But that isn't quite enough to make a run. I needed to figure out how to pick up some power at C. Enter Scott Rolen.

Obviously, I have an affinity for proven quality, and this guy has HOF-type of career numbers. I picked him up right at the start of his hot streak, and he put up .408/.568 for me, despite not having his HR power back. Part of making a trade is to figure out who has needs. Enter SuckMyKunckleballs (formerly IStillSuckCurveballs), who only have Youkilis at 1B, and had two 3B on the DL (Mike Lowell and Mark DeRosa). You can't really afford to surrender a lot of games at a power spot like 3B, so you have to make a move. Given the dearth of options in free agency, a deal has to be made. Rolen for Jorge Posada, and all of a sudden, I'm looking at making up those 8 HR and 100 points in SLG in the 2nd half that I missed from Martin in the 1st half. Plus, I still have Martin on the roster for when he finally gets his act together. This should be a classic win-win, fill-obvious-needs sort of trade.

The other major issue was my lack of starting pitching. I made a couple longshot bets (Contreras and Pedro) who may help. But I needed to move one of my closers to get a legit pitcher. Enter Mike MacDougal. I've always had my eye out for this guys, since he came through for me back in his KC days. I picked him up right after he got his 1st save for the Nationals, and he's rewarded me with 4 SV, and a reasonable ERA (but a bad WHIP and no K's). It's a little scary to run long with him, but it's a great boost for a few extra saves. Essentially, I've stolen a couple extra SV w/out getting hurt too bad elsewhere. Even though MacDougal doesn't have a ton of trade value, the extra few SV have given me a buffer. Now, I can trade one of my older closers, while still having a legit shot at keeping my points in SV (particularly when SuckMyKnuckleballs moved Brad Lidge). So, the next step was to find a good trade partner.

I think that figuring out where to send your excess stats is a subtle art. For example, I've got Westy right on my tail in 4th place. For him, adding a legit closer is worth at least 3 points just from SV. So even though he had some intriguing options, I didn't really want to send him a closer. I was hoping to send SV to Hats for Bats on the off chance that he's make a run, and overtake the teams in 1st and 2nd, the '90 Reds and IAmJabrone (he's currently down 25 saves to those guys). Unfortunately, he wasn't interesting in making a run at those guys. So the next best option was to move SV to a team that could overtake Westy, or at least protect points from Westy. That put JimmyDix, Muddy Mush Heads, and Benver Droncos as potential trade partners. And got a trade accepted (Brian Fuentes for Clayton Kershaw).

I would have preferred to move Sherrill, since he's less proven, but he also had a lot less value than Fuentes (who's leading the majors in SV). If I was going to get quality, I had to give up quality. Why Kershaw? The Mush Heads didn't seem to have much interest in moving Johnny Cueto (my first choice since I'm a homer). Similarly, if I was in 1st place, I would have tried for Edinson Volquez. I figured that Jared Weaver wasn't available. So I send out an offer to Benver for Kershaw, who is still young (21 this season), plays on a good team in a pitcher's park and a weak division, and has filthy stuff (almost a K per IP). He still walks too many guys, but opponents hit under .200 against him. He was only 7-5, and may still hit the wall this year (first full season in majors), but huge future upside, as well as an upgrade for now. Benver instantly picks up 2 points (maybe 3) in SV, and more importantly, protects 1 point from Westy.

So amazingly, I was able to get younger, as well as get help for the 2nd half. Moving forward, my keeper list looks(roughly) like this, with this season's age in parentheses:

C - Jorge Posada (38)
C - Russell Martin (26)
1B - ???
2B - Asdrubal Cabrera (23)
3B - David Wright (26)
SS - Derek Jeter (35)
OF - Adam Dunn (29)
OF - Nick Markakis (25)
OF - Shin-Soo Choo (27)
UTIL - ???
UTIL - ???

SP - Tim Lincecum (25)
SP - Jake Peavy (28)
SP - Chris Carpenter (34)
SP - Clayton Kershaw (21)
SP - Rich Harden (27)
SP - Ben Sheets (31)
RP - Francisco Rodriguez (27)
RP - Joakim Soria (25)
RP - George Sherrill (32)

That's 17 players, so I have to make a decision on Todd Helton (36), Carlos Delgado (37), Jim Thome (39), and Gary Sheffield (40), who are all putting up numbers around the .400/.500 level that I shoot for, and could very well be the core of my power in the 2nd half. I may end up punting on Harden (if he's this awful in the 2nd half) or Sheets (if the rehab doesn't look great), which could open up 1 or 2 spots. But that still leaves one of the guys out (probably Sheff, based on age). I don't think that I can give up on Martin quite yet, and I think that Posada and Jeter have value for a couple more years.

In any case, I may not be done trading - if my starting pitching gets hot, I may be able to package a pitcher to upgrade one of my keepers. But right now, I've made two legit moves that will hopefully put me back atop the standings.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Baseball '09 Mid-Season Awards

Tonight is home run derby night. The stats don't count, but it's a nice time to have the latest round of UPL hardware dispensation.

All-UPL First Team:
C - Joe Mauer, Phatnapper
1B - Albert Pujols, IAmJabrone
2B - Chase Utley, Westy's Sluggers
3B - Mark Reynolds, IAmJabrone
SS - Hanley Ramirez, Black Sox
OF - Carl Crawford, Cheeseheads
OF - Jason Bay, SuckMyKnuckleballs
OF - Raul Ibanez, Westy's Sluggers
UTIL - Justin Morneau, Benver Droncos
UTIL - Justin Upton, '90 Reds
SP - Tim Lincecum, O.N. Thugs
SP - Dan Haren, '90 Reds
SP - Zack Greinke, Phatsnapper
SP - Felix Hernandez, Phatsnapper
SP - Roy Halladay, Hats for Bats
RP - Joe Nathan, '90 Reds
RP - Jonathan Broxton, IAmJabrone
RP - Brian Fuentes, O.N. Thugs

All-UPL Second Team:
C - Brandon Inge, Westy's Sluggers
1B - Prince Fielder, Black Sox
2B - Ian Kinsler, TheJimmyDixLongballs
3B - David Wright, O.N. Thugs
SS - Ben Zobrist, Hats for Bats
OF - Ryan Braun, SuckMyKnuckleballs
OF - Torii Hunter, Westy's Sluggers
OF - Jayson Werth, Black Sox
UTIL - Matt Kemp, Phatsnapper
UTIL - Mark Teixeira, Phatsnapper
SP - Josh Johnson, IAmJabrone
SP - Matt Cain, Cheeseheads
SP - Jared Weaver, TheJimmyDixLongballs
SP - Justin Verlander, Black Sox
SP - Chris Carpenter, O.N. Thugs
RP - Heath Bell, Hats for Bats
RP - Ryan Franklin, SuckMyKnuckleballs
RP - Jonathan Papelbon, Black Sox

All-UPL Team Killers:
C - Tie, Geovany Soto, Cheeseheads and Russell Martin, O.N. Thugs
1B - David Ortiz, Cheeseheads
2B - Howie Kendrick, Cheeseheads
3B - Aramis Ramirez, '90 Reds
SS - Jose Reyes, Hats for Bats
OF - Josh Hamilton, Phatsnapper
OF - Carlos Quentin, Black Sox
OF - Alfonso Soriano, Cheeseheads
UTIL - Jimmy Rollins, Benver Droncos
UTIL - Grady Sizemore, Muddy Mush Heads
SP - Brandon Webb, Westy's Sluggers
SP - Rich Harden, O.N. Thugs
SP - Cole Hamels, IAmJabrone
SP - Scott Kazmir, Black Sox
SP - Francisco Liriano, IAmJabrone
RP - Brad Lidge, TheJimmyDixLongballs
RP - Kerry Wood, Benver Droncos
RP - Matt Capps, IAmJabrone

Team of the Half-Season: '90 Reds
Manager of the Half-Season: Westy
UPL MVP - Dan Haren, '90 Reds
UPL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum, O.N. Thugs
UPL Fireman Award - Joe Nathan, '90 Reds
UPL Rookie Pitcher - tie, J.A. Happ, Benver Droncos and Ricky Romero, IAmJabrone
UPL Rookie Hitter - Pablo Sandoval, '90 Reds
UPL Out of Nowhere Pitcher - Edwin Jackson, '90 Reds
UPL Out of Nowhere Hitter - tie, Aaron Hill, IAmJabrone and Ben Zobrist, Hats for Bats

As usual, comment away.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

NBA Rumors

I had commented on the potential impact that real-life NBA moves have on our UPL environment before, and there's a major trade that could impact the O.N. Thugs in a major way. The rumor is Boozer to Chicago, Tyrus Thomas to Utah, and Kirk Hinrich to Portland. And considering that I not only own Boozer and Thomas, I also own D-Will, Roy, and Aldridge. From my perspective, there are some individual components to look at.

Impact on Utah: D-Will's going to make plays, no matter who's around him, it seems. They lose out an a legit low block scorer, but get to put AK-47 back into the starting PF role (where he was thriving a few years ago), and get to put Tyrus Thomas/Paul Millsap into the hustle man off the bench, which is what Tyrus Thomas was doing, anyway. The benefit is that Thomas would be, at worst the 4th big on the roster (whereas his playing time in Chicago was just confusing, with not only Brad Miller, Joakim Noah, and Luol Deng taking minutes, but also John Salmons taking minutes at the 3). Plus, having D-Will set up Tyrus in an offensive system (rather than just waiting for a rebound after Gordon or Salmons jack up a shot) should improve his scoring numbers as he'll get one or two more cheap dunks off of D-Will's work.

Impact on Chicago: They finally get a legit low post scorer. And having Boozer as a complement to Brad Miller (who's comfortable in the high post as a shooter/passer) will be nice. Noah silps into a clear role as the "hustle big" that every contender seems to had/have (Chris Andersen in Denver, Varejao in Cleveland, Leon Powe in Boston, etc.). Boozer can get his numbers anywhere, I think, and should still put up 18 points and 10 boards, at the low end (and if the Bulls play faster, maybe more).

Impact on Portland: They get an upgrade from Steve Blake, but also someone who can play some pretty solid D, shoot reasonably well from outside. But more importantly for me, he lets Brandon Roy have the ball in his hands more and doesn't take shots from Aldridge.

I think that I am rooting for this trade to go through, although this just doubly confirms that I botched the Boozer pick last year. I had picked Boozer because I thought that it would be cool to watch D-Will to Boozer for the foreseeable future, and passed up Dwight Howard. Whoops. Oh well. We'll see how things shake out, but it's looking more and more interesting, and it'll be fun to see what moves people make with their keepers.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Throwing The Game... The Baseball Edition

In my other baseball league we've got a few stat categories that can play differently than the UPL's, mainly because its a weekly heads-up league. Our pitching is ranked by 9 stats, all worth 1 point each...

1. Innings Pitched
2. Wins
3. Complete Games
4. Saves
5. Walks (least wins pt)
6. K
7. ERA
8. WHIP
9. K/9

Well, I'm in a situation where my starting pitching kicked ass in the beginning of the week and I'm thinking that I'd be ok with winning most of the categories but benching all but my closers. I like and trust my closers, who have done well for me over there, but I'd almost certainly be punting Innings Pitched, Wins and Strikeouts. But 30 innings with no walks and a K/9 of 11 is something to be cherished and protected, I think.

New Positions in Football

Apparently, they're letting us have more positions.

They've added new flex positions. In addition to WR/RB and WR/TE, you can also have WR/RB/TE or QB/WR/RB/TE.

I don't think that adding a 2nd QB each week is a great idea. However, one change that I'm thinking is that we switch it to just having two guys at WR/RB/TE, instead of 1 each at WR/RB and WR/TE? This makes for a little more flexibility with the bye weeks.

Also, with individual defensive players, we used to just pick 2 guys at any position. Now, they are letting us have specific positions: DE, DT, LB, CB, and S (if you want to get really specific), DL and DB (a little less specific), and of course, you can still have just D (any position at all).

I'm sort of leaning toward going with 4 individual defensive players: DL, LB, DB, and D. Thoughts?

Finally, they are adding a "rivalry week" feature, where we can have an additional game against a specific rival. This can't get set up until everyone signs up. But, this is cool. We've got a 12 team league, with 13 regular season games. This means that you can play everyone once, and then we can have 2 weeks where you can play a particular rival. I'd think that it would be sweet to have the first and last week of the season be rivalry weeks.

So, this means that everyone gets 2 rivals. Any requests for your personal rivalries? Some interesting rivalries in the UPL... I sort of want an extra shot at Mikey. And C-Lauff, too. Of course, those rivalries are against two of the more successful franchises... I guess that if I was smart, that I'd try to go for a perennial bottom feeder as my rival... Jeff? You're playing football, right? :-)

Mikey/Bobby makes sense. I'm guessing that Westy/C-Lauff would be a pretty natural one. Schultzie/Olthoff seems to make sense. I think that this is sort of cool...

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

What's in a Name? UPL Football 2009-10:

...McNair Dating Service.

What? Too soon?

In any case, it appears that Yahoo! is finally catching up with the times and has made a few adjustments (including offering the live stats for free, which they've been charging for for about 5 years now). So, we've got a couple options. Sadly, having fantasy punters is not of of these options. But allowing some customization for the waivers process is.

The first is weekly waivers. Essentially, what it does is puts all available players on waivers starting on Sunday night, and then processes waivers right before midnight on Tuesday (players go on to rosters starting Wednesday). Practically, what this means is 2 things. For those of you who make last minute roster moves to pick up players for Monday night would have to do so before 10pm on Sunday. And second, this gives everyone the same chance at available players. Westy asked for this years ago. I'm inclined to move to weekly waivers, but will give everyone the chance to chime in.

Second, if we do have the weekly waivers, how do you want to do the waiver priority? There are multiple options. The first is to do the waiver order, just like we do now, initially based on where you draft, and then each pick-up puts you to the back of the line. A second option is essentially reset the waiver order each week, so that the team in last place has first priority. A third option (and one that I find intriguing) is to go with the Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB), which creates a blind, single-bid auction for each person you want to acquire on waivers. In the case of a tie, then the tiebreaker would fall back to season standings. In this scenario, everyone will start with the same budget at the start of the season (say, $130). This also puts a cap on the number of waiver acquisitions that you can make, since each acquisition costs at least $1. Then at the end of the regular season, I'll reset all of the playoff teams budgets back to $130.

What do you guys think? I mean, besides that I'm an ass for already naming the league after Steve McNair.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Keeper Rosters and One Team's Thought Process

So, this won't be as amusing as my take on the Iranian elections, but the NBA free agency period makes for some interesting dynamics on your keeper decisions. And just for reference, here are the final rosters from last season.

European Sellouts	O.N. Thugs	Sparty Rules
O.J. Mayo	Deron Williams	Chris Paul
LeBron James	Brandon Roy	Richard Hamilton
Nate Robinson	Ben Gordon	Hedo Turkoglu
Shaquille O'Neal	Ron Artest	Boris Diaw
Rashard Lewis	Carlos Boozer	Troy Murphy
Jose Calderon	David West	Andrea Bargnani
Gerald Wallace	LaMarcus Aldridge	Chauncey Billups
Marc Gasol	Antonio McDyess	Grant Hill
Manu Ginobili	Brook Lopez	Rasheed Wallace
Tracy McGrady	Tyrus Thomas	Brad Miller
Raymond Felton	Mario Chalmers	Matt Barnes
Matt Bonner	Russell Westbrook	Marcus Camby
Luke Ridnour	Monta Ellis	Marvin Williams
Andrew Bynum	Jermaine O'Neal	Samuel Dalembert

IAmJabrone	Westy's Ballers	Chowtime
Derrick Rose	Jarrett Jack	Tony Parker
Joe Johnson	Andre Iguodala	Danny Granger
Al Horford	Devin Harris	Kelenna Azubuike
David Lee	Paul Pierce	Pau Gasol
Anthony Randolph	Andres Nocioni	Chris Andersen
Carmelo Anthony	Caron Butler	Dirk Nowitzki
Josh Smith	Al Jefferson	Vince Carter
Dwyane Wade	Mike Miller	Mike Bibby
Charlie Villanueva	Steve Blake	Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Jason Thompson	Nene Hilario	Jamal Crawford
Ronny Turiaf	Luis Scola	Ronnie Brewer
Al Thornton	Kevin Garnett	Chris Kaman
Gilbert Arenas	Tyson Chandler	Thaddeus Young
Michael Redd	Luol Deng	Jameer Nelson

Dribbling Balls	Floor Burns	Milwaukee Bricks
Jason Kidd	Leandro Barbosa	Baron Davis
Kobe Bryant	Kevin Martin	Eric Gordon
Rafer Alston	Lamar Odom	J.R. Smith
Mickael Pietrus	Shawn Marion	James Posey
Jeff Green	Tayshaun Prince	Luc Mbah a Moute
John Salmons	Kendrick Perkins	Michael Beasley
Dwight Howard	Paul Millsap	Mehmet Okur
Tim Duncan	Stephen Jackson	Emeka Okafor
Rudy Fernandez	Mo Williams	Andris Biedrins
Corey Maggette	Joakim Noah	Jason Terry
Andrei Kirilenko	Marquis Daniels	Jason Richardson
Derek Fisher	Richard Jefferson	Ramon Sessions
Greg Oden	Rodney Stuckey	Al Harrington
Mike James	Peja Stojakovic	Elton Brand

Love Timberwolves	Phatsnapper
Andre Miller	Allen Iverson
Kevin Durant	Randy Foye
DeShawn Stevenson	Steve Nash
Linas Kleiza	Antawn Jamison
Chris Bosh	Amar'e Stoudemire
Kevin Love	Wilson Chandler
Yao Ming	Andrew Bogut
Zach Randolph	Spencer Hawes
Josh Howard	Kenyon Martin
Rajon Rondo	Drew Gooden
Anthony Parker	Ray Allen
Mike Conley	T.J. Ford
Rudy Gay	Mike Dunleavy
Cuttino Mobley	Francisco Garcia

Lots of interesting choices, just based on the rosters. For example, there's a good chance that of Michael Redd, Gilbert Arenas, and Charlie Villaneuva, two of the three will be available. But there are also interesting changes in the dynamics, based on how the players' situations have changed (or not changed) in real life.

Obviously, injuries to people like Yao make for a tough situation. Do you just drop him, or do you hold on to him for the entire year? But an interesting thing comes up with you have free agents change locations. For example, we can start with Vinsanity going from Jersey to Orlando. If I had to guess, his numbers will probably stay roughly the same. And the void he leaves in Jersey probably means that Devin Harris gets a couple more shots, and that Brook Lopez gets more shots. But if you look to Orlando, this also means that Hedo Turkoglu (aka MJT, or the Michael Jordan of Turkey) is going somewhere else. If he had gone to Portland, the Blazers probably would have had a better team. However, there's a good chance that the numbers for Turkoglu, Brandon Roy, and LaMarcus Aldrige all decrease. That would have been a decidedly bad thing for the O.N. Thugs. Happily, it appears that MJT's taking his act up north to the Raptors... where this probably doesn't affect anyone a whole lot, and may even get Chris Bosh a couple more layups.

In any case, the O.N. Thugs have choices. We're keeping 8 out of 14. Here's how things look:

Must-Keep (6): Deron Williams, Brandon Roy, Carlos Boozer, David West, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brook Lopez.

Basically, there are a few obvious choices. D-Will and Roy are stone cold locks. Boozer was hurt, but is a 20 and 10 guy. David West is a 20 and 9 guy, who makes FT's. Aldrige comes in at 18 and 8. And Brook Lopez's 13, 8, and 2 blocks (and efficient scoring) becomes a must keep because of the scarcity of quality at C, even if Vince stays in Jersey. And truth be told, I was committed to Lopez, when I dropped Tyson Chandler last season to make a run at the championship.

Looking at this roster, it looks like there will be good scoring (at and efficient rate), very good rebounding, and slightly above average shot blocking and steals. D-Will can make up ground on assists, and only Lopez turns the ball over too much. However, the outside shooting is so-so. D-Will and Roy are OK from 3, but none of the bigs really shoot from 3. So who will round things out?

Probably Set Free (4): Antonio McDyess, Jermaine O'Neal, Mario Chalmers, Ron Artest

And as you look down the roster, you see two bigs that you can't keep: McDyess (age, uncertain where he'll play), and Jermaine O'Neal (showed some glimpses, but age has gotten to him, as well). Mario Chalmers would help with the STL and 3PM, but at 10 points and 5 assists (D-Wade has the ball too much), you just can't go down that road with a keeper. Same for Artest, since he has gotten a little old, and you have no idea where he'll fit w/ the Lakers. So who's left?

Question Marks (4, keep 2): Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, Monta Ellis, Russell Westbrook

Gordon puts up 20 a game, makes his FT's, and makes a lot of 3's. He would definitely keep the O.N. Thugs competitive in 3PM. But, he's also moving to a Pistons team that already has Stuckey (who needs the ball in his hands), and Rip Hamilton (who needs a lot of shots). Not sure what to think about that lineup.

Tyrus Thomas really came into his own toward the end of the season. Since February, he was about 13.5 PTS, 7.5 REB, 2.2 BLK, 1.2 STL, and was reasonably efficient from the floor (47.1%/77.5%). He should be improving, and getting a couple more shots with Gordon moving on. But where he really adds value is with the hustle stats. If he's getting the 31 minutes per game that he got toward the end of last season, you almost have to keep him.

Monta Ellis is coming off injury, but did put up 19 per game and was good from the line, though his shooting was a little off from the previous year (down to 45%, from 53%). You also saw some struggles for him at the point, and his AST numbers actually went down, despite the move to point. Nellie Ball runs fast, but that offense goes through Captain Jack... You'd forgive this if he was good in another category, but he doesn't shoot 3's, and his peripheral stats are mediocre. But he's young, and ultra talented, just like

Russell Westbrook. The comparison is to a young D-Wade. He was about 15 PTS, 5.5 AST, 5 REB, and 1.2 STL. He makes his FT's (81.5%), but is really bad from the floor (39.8%), and doens't shoot 3's often or well, but he can score in bunches (5 games over 30 points). The most important thing for Westbrook was that the Thunder didn't pick a PG in the draft. This means that Westbrook will be running the show for these guys.

At this point, I'm probably going to keep Tyrus Thomas, since he'd really stabilize the STL and BLK numbers. Gordon's the safe choice, but even with him, I was bad at 3PM last year. Westbrook's got the most upside, since he gets all sorts of hustle numbers. But Ellis has the potential to be a 25 point guy, as well... I think that part of it depends on where I end up drafting (side note - I've got a plan for the lottery, just haven't had a chance to post the idea).

In any case, the rosters are posted here. We'll get the lottery taken care of in a couple weeks, and I'll assign keepers about a week before the draft (which will be about a week before the start of the season).

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)