Update (5/5/09): Yep. I have no attention span. Had to drop Porcello so that I could take another go around with Zito, who is the equivalent of the crazy ex-girlfriend that I should know better than to hang out with.
It's interesting in the previous discussion w/ Rup and Co., how different my evaluations are when I have to evaluate trades (which is based on a combination of past performance and age-adjustments) and when I actually choose players for my team (and in particular, pitchers). When I've got my Commish Hat on, I try to be as objective as possible so that we're fair to everyone else in the league. When I'm picking players for my roster, that's an entirely different story.
I've always been infatuated with pitchers with great stuff. And I'd take a lot of fliers on guys with great stuff in the late rounds, particularly guys who came up with the Marlins, Expos, or A's during the early part of the decade. Anyone who's been around knows that for a number of years Tony Armas, Jr. was a regular on the O.N. Thugs. I was a fan of Brett Myers early on, as well. Javy Vasquez was another guy that I always tried to draft late. Kris Benson, Brad Penny, A.J. Burnett, Ryan Dempster, Joe Blanton, Scott Olsen, and Annibal Sanchez are on the list of former players on the O.N. Thugs. Naturally, some have panned out, and others have flamed out.
So how do I decide on these guys? Some of the time, it's just checking box scores. When a guy has a couple good outings in a row, I'll start looking at him for down the road. But sometimes, just rely on the eyeball test.
Rick Porcello (whoever the hell that is) is on ESPN right now. 2-seam fastball with movement at 96. Sinker with a lot of movement at 95. Nasty changeup at 78. My first thought is, "Wait - did C-Lauff drop him?" My second thought is, "Good god - if he ever figures out how to pitch with any efficiency, he's Roy Halladay with better stuff."
So, I just had to go pick him up.
The fun part? I actually dug up some scouting reports on him, and sure enough, Roy Halladay was the comparison. Of course, the odds that he ends up being as good as Roy Halladay are slim. But, it'll be fun to see how it works out.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Mythbusters: Using UPL VORP
If you read through that last discussion regarding the attempted Mauer/Lester/Dukes for Berkman/Holliday trade, you'll see a lot of statements that are worth looking at.
One excerpt:
"Berkman career is solid, but year to year he is a wild card trust me. I have had him in other keeper leagues before.
Is berkman better than MAUER considering position scarcity. I doubt it."
So, we should really look at this. We've talked about the concept of Value of Replacement Player (VORP) in a UPL context. Basically, one way to evaluate a player is to see how much of an additional benefit it is to have a player, relative to what's available in free agency. Of course there are issues with this concept, particularly with regard to who's available - people will often keep bad players on their roster for too long. And I'm not going back to see who was actually available in 2007 and 2008, since that info isn't readily available. But it's a nice start point.
Let's look at some numbers at C, specifically the best stats from current free agents in 2007 and 2008 (which is what Yahoo! has available).
Ivan Rodriguez (2007 - 502AB): .294/.420, 50R, 11HR, 62 RBI, 2SB
Ramon Hernandez (2008 - 463AB): .308/.406, 49R, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 0SB
Certainly, nothing overwhelming.
Now, let's look at Joe Mauer in that same time period:
Mauer (2007 - 406 AB): .382/.426, 62R, 7HR, 60RBI, 7SB
Mauer (2007 - 536 AB): .413/.451, 98R, 9HR, 85RBI, 1SB
Clearly, Mauer's better than a replacement player, which was never in doubt. But how much better?
Typical Replacement Season (482 AB): .301/.413, 50R, 13HR, 63RBI, 1SB
Typical Mauer Season (471AB): .397/.439, 80R, 8HR, 73RBI, 4SB
Difference? Basically, having Joe Mauer, compared to a free agent? About .008 in OBP, .002 in SLG, 30R, -5 HR, 5RBI, and 3 SB.
So, if what Phatsnapper's saying is true, that Mauer is better than Berkman, considering position, then we'd have a lot of people screwing up their drafts, since Berkman comes off the board around 18, whereas Mauer comes off the board at 55. The most likely explanation is that people don't evaluate position scarcity accurately. This could be entirely true.
Now, let's look at Lance Berkman and a replacement 1B.
Berkman (2007 - 561AB): .386/.510, 95R, 34HR, 102RBI, 7SB
Berkman (2008 - 554AB): .420/.567, 114R, 29HR, 106RBI, 18SB
Typical Berkman (557AB): .403/.538, 105R, 33HR, 104RBI, 13SB
Oddly enough, in 2007 and 2008, the best replacement looked to be Ryan Garko:
Garko (2008 - 495AB): .346/.404, 61R, 14HR, 90RBI, 0SB
Garko (2007 - 484AB): .359/.483, 62R, 21HR, 61RBI, 0SB
Typical Replacement (490AB): .351/.444, 62R, 18HR, 76RBI, 0SB
The difference between Berkman and Garko is about this: .004 OBP, .008 SLG, 43R, 15HR, 28RBI, and 13SB.
The difference between differences, for a given season?
Mauer Benefit (2007-08): .008 OBP, .002 SLG, 30R, -5HR, 5RBI, 3SB
Berkman Benefit (2007-08): .004 OBP, .008 SLG, 43R, 15HR, 28 RBI, 13 SB
Benefit of Mauer - Berkman: .004 OBP, -.006 SLG, -13R, -20 HR, -23 RBI, -10 SB.
So, is Mauer, compared to a replacement catcher, better than Berkman, compared to a replacement 1B? I'd guess no. What does this suggest? Well, based on this small sample size, the wisdom of the crowds, and the wisdom gleaned from quick research, appears to be better than the wisdom of Rup's guesswork.
But what about down the road? How will this trend move? If you give both players the benefit of the doubt, and say that they'll be relatively healthy in their careers, you'll see Berkman start to regress, and Mauer improve a little bit (or maybe just stay at his 2008 levels). I'd guess that Berkman falls to Mauer's level (which should be entering the plateau stage) in about 4 seasons, and when Berkman is looking at retirement (after 5 or 6 seasons), you'll still have Mauer at a high level for 2-3 more seasons, before his starts his decline.
However, if you look at prior health, oddly enough, from 2005-08, Mauer has had 2237 AB + BB, while Berkman has had 2501 AB+BB. What this suggests is that Berkman has been healthier than Mauer (and is right now, as well). I don't think that this changes Berkman's career trajectory, however, Mauer may be suspect to a faster decline. Also note that he's good for about 15-20 games at DH, so his numbers are based on being on an AL club. If he's on an NL club, figure that he'll be catching 130 games, so you have to take his projections down accordingly. And if Mauer moves positions, then his value diminishes immensely, and this whole discussion is moot. On the other hand, if Berkman moves to the AL, he'll have the luxury of playing DH.
So a very appropriate question is between Mauer and Berkman, who's the larger injury risk? Generally, you'd say that 33 year old is more at risk than the 26 year old. But given their individual histories and the position that they play, it's awfully close, isn't it? But for the next 4 years, it's very likely that Berkman will be the more valuable player, even after you adjust for position. After that, it depends a lot on Mauer's health.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
One excerpt:
"Berkman career is solid, but year to year he is a wild card trust me. I have had him in other keeper leagues before.
Is berkman better than MAUER considering position scarcity. I doubt it."
So, we should really look at this. We've talked about the concept of Value of Replacement Player (VORP) in a UPL context. Basically, one way to evaluate a player is to see how much of an additional benefit it is to have a player, relative to what's available in free agency. Of course there are issues with this concept, particularly with regard to who's available - people will often keep bad players on their roster for too long. And I'm not going back to see who was actually available in 2007 and 2008, since that info isn't readily available. But it's a nice start point.
Let's look at some numbers at C, specifically the best stats from current free agents in 2007 and 2008 (which is what Yahoo! has available).
Ivan Rodriguez (2007 - 502AB): .294/.420, 50R, 11HR, 62 RBI, 2SB
Ramon Hernandez (2008 - 463AB): .308/.406, 49R, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 0SB
Certainly, nothing overwhelming.
Now, let's look at Joe Mauer in that same time period:
Mauer (2007 - 406 AB): .382/.426, 62R, 7HR, 60RBI, 7SB
Mauer (2007 - 536 AB): .413/.451, 98R, 9HR, 85RBI, 1SB
Clearly, Mauer's better than a replacement player, which was never in doubt. But how much better?
Typical Replacement Season (482 AB): .301/.413, 50R, 13HR, 63RBI, 1SB
Typical Mauer Season (471AB): .397/.439, 80R, 8HR, 73RBI, 4SB
Difference? Basically, having Joe Mauer, compared to a free agent? About .008 in OBP, .002 in SLG, 30R, -5 HR, 5RBI, and 3 SB.
So, if what Phatsnapper's saying is true, that Mauer is better than Berkman, considering position, then we'd have a lot of people screwing up their drafts, since Berkman comes off the board around 18, whereas Mauer comes off the board at 55. The most likely explanation is that people don't evaluate position scarcity accurately. This could be entirely true.
Now, let's look at Lance Berkman and a replacement 1B.
Berkman (2007 - 561AB): .386/.510, 95R, 34HR, 102RBI, 7SB
Berkman (2008 - 554AB): .420/.567, 114R, 29HR, 106RBI, 18SB
Typical Berkman (557AB): .403/.538, 105R, 33HR, 104RBI, 13SB
Oddly enough, in 2007 and 2008, the best replacement looked to be Ryan Garko:
Garko (2008 - 495AB): .346/.404, 61R, 14HR, 90RBI, 0SB
Garko (2007 - 484AB): .359/.483, 62R, 21HR, 61RBI, 0SB
Typical Replacement (490AB): .351/.444, 62R, 18HR, 76RBI, 0SB
The difference between Berkman and Garko is about this: .004 OBP, .008 SLG, 43R, 15HR, 28RBI, and 13SB.
The difference between differences, for a given season?
Mauer Benefit (2007-08): .008 OBP, .002 SLG, 30R, -5HR, 5RBI, 3SB
Berkman Benefit (2007-08): .004 OBP, .008 SLG, 43R, 15HR, 28 RBI, 13 SB
Benefit of Mauer - Berkman: .004 OBP, -.006 SLG, -13R, -20 HR, -23 RBI, -10 SB.
So, is Mauer, compared to a replacement catcher, better than Berkman, compared to a replacement 1B? I'd guess no. What does this suggest? Well, based on this small sample size, the wisdom of the crowds, and the wisdom gleaned from quick research, appears to be better than the wisdom of Rup's guesswork.
But what about down the road? How will this trend move? If you give both players the benefit of the doubt, and say that they'll be relatively healthy in their careers, you'll see Berkman start to regress, and Mauer improve a little bit (or maybe just stay at his 2008 levels). I'd guess that Berkman falls to Mauer's level (which should be entering the plateau stage) in about 4 seasons, and when Berkman is looking at retirement (after 5 or 6 seasons), you'll still have Mauer at a high level for 2-3 more seasons, before his starts his decline.
However, if you look at prior health, oddly enough, from 2005-08, Mauer has had 2237 AB + BB, while Berkman has had 2501 AB+BB. What this suggests is that Berkman has been healthier than Mauer (and is right now, as well). I don't think that this changes Berkman's career trajectory, however, Mauer may be suspect to a faster decline. Also note that he's good for about 15-20 games at DH, so his numbers are based on being on an AL club. If he's on an NL club, figure that he'll be catching 130 games, so you have to take his projections down accordingly. And if Mauer moves positions, then his value diminishes immensely, and this whole discussion is moot. On the other hand, if Berkman moves to the AL, he'll have the luxury of playing DH.
So a very appropriate question is between Mauer and Berkman, who's the larger injury risk? Generally, you'd say that 33 year old is more at risk than the 26 year old. But given their individual histories and the position that they play, it's awfully close, isn't it? But for the next 4 years, it's very likely that Berkman will be the more valuable player, even after you adjust for position. After that, it depends a lot on Mauer's health.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Free Trade (Dis)Agreements
The other day, we had a trade between Westy and Phatnsapper that was auto-vetoed. Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday for Joe Mauer, Jon Lester, and Elijah Dukes. Naturally, Phatsnapper wasn't happy about the auto-veto since he was getting Berkman and Holliday. And this has sparked some interesting discussion on the UPL message boards, which I'm going to archive over here in the UPL Blog. As the discussion continues, I'll update this post.
PHATSNAPPER'S POST:
really. auto veto. this is a keeper league right?
dukes is lights out when he is on the field and puts up sick numbers...just look at his production relative to the amount of at bats.
hes 25
mauer. best catcher in baseball bar none.
also like 28
and lester who was lights out last year
and since wins and losses is a category is inifinitely more valuable and is also 25
than king felix.
for an old lance berkman
and holliday who has done nothing outside of coors.
if anything I am giving up too much.
O.N. THUG'S REPLY:
Before we get into Phatsnapper's players, let's look at Berkman/Holliday, over their career, 162 games averages:
Berkman: .413/.559, 106.5R, 35.9HR, 113RBI, 8.5SB
Holliday: .386/.551, 110.3R, 29.4HR, 112.3RBI, 15.2SB
Let's just make sure that we see what we're dealing with. And now we'll debunk some statements.
STATEMENT 1: "dukes is lights out when he is on the field and puts up sick numbers"
Okay. Where shall we start? Let's look at his 162 game average:
Dukes: .362/.451, 90.9R, 28.0HR, 82.7RBI, 17.5 SB
Those numbers are pretty good. I mean, not nearly in the league of either Berkman or Holliday. But he'd probably be a solid 3rd OF, if you could guarantee 150 games. Not quite "lights out" or "sick." But solid, in a Raul Ibanez sort of way, with a little more speed and fewer RBI.
Ibanez' since 2001: .352/.483, 89.8R, 23.9HR, 103.6RBI, 3.8SB.
Of course, extrapolation of those numbers is a best guess, since his career has been less than one full season. On the other hand, Berkman and Holliday are based on at least 4 full seasons worth of performance.
I don't know, Rup, but this seems like a pretty bad way to start an argument. Let's make it worse. Dukes was an 18th round draft pick, whose Wikipedia entry has this excerpt:
"Dukes has been arrested at least three times for battery, and once for assault.[6] According to court records, he fathered at least five children with four women between 2003 and 2006.[6] On May 23, 2007 it was reported that his wife filed a restraining order after he threatened to kill her.[7] On June 12, a 17-year-old foster child who was living in the care of a relative of Dukes accused him of impregnating her.[8] Police said the sex was apparently consensual.[8] "
The most positive account in there was that it was only statutory rape, and not the real kind.
STATEMENT #2 "mauer. best catcher in baseball bar none."
Let's look at Mauer. We'll use a 140 game expected performance, based on career stats (since you lose games at C).
Mauer: .399/.457, 81.1R, 11HR, 75.1RBI, 7.5SB
The numbers are sort of underwhelming, unless you factor in his position. I don't know if you say that he's hands down the best C in baseball... Keeping w/ the 140 game projections, let's look at:
Martin: .371/.430, 78.7R, 13.5HR, 68.2RBI, 14.8SB
They're the same age, and basically the same player.
McCann: .358/.503, 59.8R, 21.0HR, 88.1RBI, 2.6SB
McCann's a year younger. Clearly more power.
It's not clear cut that any of these three is better than the other. I'm sure that Soto fans may have some comments. And if anything, Mauer seems to be the one who has the chronic injury issue. He's a good player. But he's not in the class of Berkman/Holliday, even in a keeper league.
STATEMENT #3: "and lester who was lights out last year and since wins and losses is a category is inifinitely more valuable and is also 25
than king felix"
I have to confess, that I'm not exactly sure what the King Felix reference is in regard to. If you're saying that Lester is infinitely more valuable than Felix... we'll, I don't know what to say, other than that you're probably the only one here who's overrating Felix:
Felix: 3.80 (very average) / 1.32 (below average), 8.04 K/9IP (very good for a starter).
Let's look at his career numbers, and expected stats (using 32 G and 200IP):
Lester: 3.96/1.41, 14.2W, 5.2L, 148.8K.
Once again, I suppose that can quibble about the term "lights out." His numbers from last year: 3.21 ERA (very good). A 1.27 WHIP (very average). And a 6.50 K/9IP (below average for the UPL). His career ERA and WHIP look bad... he does suffer relatively few losses, though. So that's good, I suppose.
So, Lester is a pitcher whose career numbers are bad, but he's trending upward (if you ignore how he's gotten smacked around so far this year).
STATEMENT #4: "if anything I am giving up too much."
Let's just say that you're not giving up too much. Not with the comments that I've already received, and the quick analysis I just ran through. And not when I get correspondence from your trade partner basically expecting this to get auto-vetoed.
PHATSNAPPER'S REPLY:
so if you put dukes up to holliday its basically the same player only...holliday doesnt play at coors anymore...uhh ohh..
then the berkman excuse is a joke. hes 35 or so and clearly on the tailend of his career so to expect him to put up with his career averages is a little ridiculous.
but as usual you skew the data to find an argument.
also dukes is off the field issues actually dont count in fantasy baseball last time i checked so i have no idea what that has anything to do with it.
and anyone that just goes with roland because he is gods gift without thinking for themselves is a joke.
O.N. THUG'S REPLY #1:
How in the world can you say that Dukes = Holliday? You can say that I'm skewing numbers (though 162 game projections based on career numbers are a pretty conservative projection, particularly when I use the same method for all players). But, I'm not just throwing out outlandish statements, with no facts attached.
Dukes' numbers are 139 games, scattered over 3 seasons. Holliday's numbers are established over 706 games. So, the stability of the projections are clearly in favor of Holliday.
As for Holliday away from Coors, let's look at his 162 game projection, based on his last two seasons' road stats (which is over 142 games, about the same as Dukes' career numbers):
Holliday (road '07-'08): .384/.486, 111.8R, 24.0HR, 95.8RBI, 28.5SB
As a reminder, here are Dukes' 162 game projection:
Dukes: .362/.451, 90.9R, 28.0HR, 82.7RBI, 17.5 SB
Dukes will probably lose .020 in OBP, .035 in SLG, be down about 20 R, 13 RBI, and 11SB. Of course he'll be up by 4 HR.
I'm not saying that Dukes is a bad player. And in fact, he should be trending upward, with more playing time. That assumes that he can be durable for 150 games (maybe - he's had injuries in the past), can stay in the lineup against righties (this seems pretty reasonable, actually). But at the same time, Holliday's road numbers have been trending upward for the last 4 seasons.
As for his off the field problems? Well, last I checked, rape/murder charges involve jail time, which could reduce playing time. I don't care if he's a mean person who insults grandmothers. It's a little more problematic when he may or may not be facing rape/murder charges.
O.N. THUG'S REPLY #2:
Berkman's 33 this season. Likely on the tail end of his prime, probably going to trend downward over the next 5 seasons.
The question isn't how the average player fares as they age. The more appropriate question is how do players of Berkman's caliber and health fare a they age?
I've talked about career arcs before - conventional wisdom is that hitters tend to improve until they hit 27, plateau until 33, and then decrease production until they fall off the cliff, generally around 36. This is particularly the case for players up the middle, with wear and tear from fielding.
But, what has happened over the last decade? Players are playing at high levels for longer, particularly the high OBP and power guys that you see at 1B, and DH. And when you see players fall off the cliff, it's due to injury. They're the ones who have chronic injuries catch up (think Mo Vaughn, Albert Belle, Jeff Bagwell, etc.). The guys who are healthy keep on producing. Obviously, Bonds skews these numbers quite a bit. But look at a couple guys with career .975 OPS: Frank Thomas, who was much maligned toward the end had a .900+ OPS from the ages of 35 until 39. And Jim Thome has had a .900+ OPS since he turned 35. Jason Giambi's a career .940 OPS guys, who's put up .890 since he's turned 35. And similarly, Carlos Delgado is a career .925 OPS guy, and since he turned 35, he's been about .830, and that includes a miserable year in 2007.
This is the reference point that makes more sense to look at when you try to look down the road. And if anything, Berkman's been healthier than the guys that I've just listed. Berkman's averaged 153 games played per season, since his first full year in the majors, in 2001 (rookie in 2000, played 114 games). The key is that he's been healthy. There will be a fall off. He won't be the .975 OPS guy that he's been to this point. But there's a good chance that he'll keep being around .900, for a number of years to come.
Conversely, Joe Mauer has already lost big chunks of time in two separate seasons. And this year, he hasn't played, yet. I don't know if it's the sort of trauma that you bounce back from, or if it's the chronic injury that stays with you. But over the next 6 years, if you had to guess who was going to play more games, Berkman or Mauer, you'd probably have to go with Berkman.
PHATSNAPPER'S REPLY:
The point of the veto is to maintain the leagues level of competitiveness? so if its april even though you so- called God's gift of the waiver wire fantasy baseball experts know baseball so well. Why can't a trade happen if we think there is value for both teams.
I am a trader. I make trades on perceived value all the time. I promise its not that black and white. If it were that easy buy and hold would work...(insert if you bought stocks in before 1960 you would still be up a lot money argument here.) who of you was alive in 1960. I take money from boring accountant/engineer linear thinking people every day.
This auto-veto in a free league is absolutely retarded. so if thats the case. why doesnt roland rebalance all the teams? wait let me guess ? you guys probably also think we should bail out GM Ford and Chrysler for making shitty cars for the last 20 years. BRILLIANT
I will also bet you that Dukes puts up as good a numbers as matt holliday on a annualized 162 game stretch this year within 10 percent. I will bet 1000 bux on it if anyone wants to take me up on it.
O.N. THUG'S REPLY:
Rup - there's a difference between proposing a bet and making an argument.
You've done the former, but still haven't done the latter. And you haven't even offered any reasonable explanation why my argument was bad. The basic procedure seems to be this:
a) proclaim loudly that you know more than anyone else, then
b) complain loudly against a decision and offer hyperbole, and finally
c) not offer either a reasonable explanation for why you're complaining or a rebuttal against my explanation.
I don't know - maybe we're being unreasonable. Especially after your last post, which made a lot of sense. After all, government bailouts are definitely more related to fantasy sports than having your player charged with rape/murder.
PHATSNAPPER'S REPLY:
Heres the problem. I just wrote a really long post but it got erased sic.
THERE IS NO WAY WITH ANY ACCURACY YOU CAN TELL ME HOLLIDAY IS GOING TO BE A BETTER PLAYER THAN DUKES OUTSIDE OF COORS. HE HAS NEVER PLAYED ANYWHERE ELSE AND CLEARLY COORS FIELD MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE. DANTE BICHETTE ANYONE? HOW BOUT TODD HELTON OR THAT 3B THAT I CAN REMEMBER HIS NAME?
he goes from the best hitting park in the majors to one of the worst. his numbers will take a major hit. and there is no way in hell he steals 28 bases. based on his career numbers hes like 12 steals a year. that was obviously a fluke.
as for dukes. he is one of the most talented young players in the game aside from his off-field issues. If he ever gets out of his own way and gets rid of all this attitude stuff he could be one of the best five tool players in the game.
In a keeper league uptrending and down-trending is very important. especially in a league with this many keepers.
berkman downtrending you dont think that matters? JUST ASK THE OWNERS OF DAVID ORTIZ ANDRUW JONES CHIPPER JETER MO VAUGHN? CHRIS CARPENTER? are they still great when healthy? sure carpenter was probably the Cy young winner if the season ended after 2 starts. Chipper is a OPS machine WHEN HE PLAYS. Berkman career is solid, but year to year he is a wild card trust me. I have had him in other keeper leagues before.
Is berkman better than MAUER considering position scarcity. I doubt it. Is Lester solid could be even better absolutely. and hes young with no arm issues.
So theres the argument. NOT EVERYTHING in FANTASY. IS THREE YEAR HISTORICAL PROJECTIONS IF THAT WAS THE CASE YOU WOULD WIN THE LEAGUE EVERY YEAR. CAUSE CLEARLY YOU KNOW MORE ABOUT THIS TOPIC THAN ANYONE. AND IF IT WERE THAT EASY WHY NOT JUST USE YOUR SUPER-COMPUTER AND JUST RUN THE SIMULATIONS AND TELL US WHO WINS AND WE COULD SAVE THE TIME AND REDRAFT AT MID-SEASON AND PLAY AGAIN..
its a Free LEAGUE. its not that either owner is dumping players. obviously I get a better deal for this year assuming your assumptions. This is not JEFF ROGERS territory. HOW CAN I IMPROVE MY TEAM if i can't make trades with someone that perceives value to be different? THE WAIVER WIRE...GOOD ONE. wow that takes a lot of strategy. So the only place strategy takes effect is the draft. again. I would rather auto set my team and see you guys next year.
The first veto for street when he was the closer for one game makes sense. THis one is just stupid. and I am tired of commishoners that think they are God's gift to fantasy because they have ten friends that want to play in a league wielding with an iron-fist. I see it all to often.
FOR THE RECORD. CLEARLY I AM GETTING A BETTER DEAL. but that doesn't mean i am not giving up future competiveness to win now.
as for the Rape charges. or whatever. DUKES is not going to jail and will be on the field the whole season and put up monster numbers. Worry about making your own teams better not someone who is toiling in last place. f'ing retarded.
PHATSNAPPER'S POST:
really. auto veto. this is a keeper league right?
dukes is lights out when he is on the field and puts up sick numbers...just look at his production relative to the amount of at bats.
hes 25
mauer. best catcher in baseball bar none.
also like 28
and lester who was lights out last year
and since wins and losses is a category is inifinitely more valuable and is also 25
than king felix.
for an old lance berkman
and holliday who has done nothing outside of coors.
if anything I am giving up too much.
O.N. THUG'S REPLY:
Before we get into Phatsnapper's players, let's look at Berkman/Holliday, over their career, 162 games averages:
Berkman: .413/.559, 106.5R, 35.9HR, 113RBI, 8.5SB
Holliday: .386/.551, 110.3R, 29.4HR, 112.3RBI, 15.2SB
Let's just make sure that we see what we're dealing with. And now we'll debunk some statements.
STATEMENT 1: "dukes is lights out when he is on the field and puts up sick numbers"
Okay. Where shall we start? Let's look at his 162 game average:
Dukes: .362/.451, 90.9R, 28.0HR, 82.7RBI, 17.5 SB
Those numbers are pretty good. I mean, not nearly in the league of either Berkman or Holliday. But he'd probably be a solid 3rd OF, if you could guarantee 150 games. Not quite "lights out" or "sick." But solid, in a Raul Ibanez sort of way, with a little more speed and fewer RBI.
Ibanez' since 2001: .352/.483, 89.8R, 23.9HR, 103.6RBI, 3.8SB.
Of course, extrapolation of those numbers is a best guess, since his career has been less than one full season. On the other hand, Berkman and Holliday are based on at least 4 full seasons worth of performance.
I don't know, Rup, but this seems like a pretty bad way to start an argument. Let's make it worse. Dukes was an 18th round draft pick, whose Wikipedia entry has this excerpt:
"Dukes has been arrested at least three times for battery, and once for assault.[6] According to court records, he fathered at least five children with four women between 2003 and 2006.[6] On May 23, 2007 it was reported that his wife filed a restraining order after he threatened to kill her.[7] On June 12, a 17-year-old foster child who was living in the care of a relative of Dukes accused him of impregnating her.[8] Police said the sex was apparently consensual.[8] "
The most positive account in there was that it was only statutory rape, and not the real kind.
STATEMENT #2 "mauer. best catcher in baseball bar none."
Let's look at Mauer. We'll use a 140 game expected performance, based on career stats (since you lose games at C).
Mauer: .399/.457, 81.1R, 11HR, 75.1RBI, 7.5SB
The numbers are sort of underwhelming, unless you factor in his position. I don't know if you say that he's hands down the best C in baseball... Keeping w/ the 140 game projections, let's look at:
Martin: .371/.430, 78.7R, 13.5HR, 68.2RBI, 14.8SB
They're the same age, and basically the same player.
McCann: .358/.503, 59.8R, 21.0HR, 88.1RBI, 2.6SB
McCann's a year younger. Clearly more power.
It's not clear cut that any of these three is better than the other. I'm sure that Soto fans may have some comments. And if anything, Mauer seems to be the one who has the chronic injury issue. He's a good player. But he's not in the class of Berkman/Holliday, even in a keeper league.
STATEMENT #3: "and lester who was lights out last year and since wins and losses is a category is inifinitely more valuable and is also 25
than king felix"
I have to confess, that I'm not exactly sure what the King Felix reference is in regard to. If you're saying that Lester is infinitely more valuable than Felix... we'll, I don't know what to say, other than that you're probably the only one here who's overrating Felix:
Felix: 3.80 (very average) / 1.32 (below average), 8.04 K/9IP (very good for a starter).
Let's look at his career numbers, and expected stats (using 32 G and 200IP):
Lester: 3.96/1.41, 14.2W, 5.2L, 148.8K.
Once again, I suppose that can quibble about the term "lights out." His numbers from last year: 3.21 ERA (very good). A 1.27 WHIP (very average). And a 6.50 K/9IP (below average for the UPL). His career ERA and WHIP look bad... he does suffer relatively few losses, though. So that's good, I suppose.
So, Lester is a pitcher whose career numbers are bad, but he's trending upward (if you ignore how he's gotten smacked around so far this year).
STATEMENT #4: "if anything I am giving up too much."
Let's just say that you're not giving up too much. Not with the comments that I've already received, and the quick analysis I just ran through. And not when I get correspondence from your trade partner basically expecting this to get auto-vetoed.
PHATSNAPPER'S REPLY:
so if you put dukes up to holliday its basically the same player only...holliday doesnt play at coors anymore...uhh ohh..
then the berkman excuse is a joke. hes 35 or so and clearly on the tailend of his career so to expect him to put up with his career averages is a little ridiculous.
but as usual you skew the data to find an argument.
also dukes is off the field issues actually dont count in fantasy baseball last time i checked so i have no idea what that has anything to do with it.
and anyone that just goes with roland because he is gods gift without thinking for themselves is a joke.
O.N. THUG'S REPLY #1:
How in the world can you say that Dukes = Holliday? You can say that I'm skewing numbers (though 162 game projections based on career numbers are a pretty conservative projection, particularly when I use the same method for all players). But, I'm not just throwing out outlandish statements, with no facts attached.
Dukes' numbers are 139 games, scattered over 3 seasons. Holliday's numbers are established over 706 games. So, the stability of the projections are clearly in favor of Holliday.
As for Holliday away from Coors, let's look at his 162 game projection, based on his last two seasons' road stats (which is over 142 games, about the same as Dukes' career numbers):
Holliday (road '07-'08): .384/.486, 111.8R, 24.0HR, 95.8RBI, 28.5SB
As a reminder, here are Dukes' 162 game projection:
Dukes: .362/.451, 90.9R, 28.0HR, 82.7RBI, 17.5 SB
Dukes will probably lose .020 in OBP, .035 in SLG, be down about 20 R, 13 RBI, and 11SB. Of course he'll be up by 4 HR.
I'm not saying that Dukes is a bad player. And in fact, he should be trending upward, with more playing time. That assumes that he can be durable for 150 games (maybe - he's had injuries in the past), can stay in the lineup against righties (this seems pretty reasonable, actually). But at the same time, Holliday's road numbers have been trending upward for the last 4 seasons.
As for his off the field problems? Well, last I checked, rape/murder charges involve jail time, which could reduce playing time. I don't care if he's a mean person who insults grandmothers. It's a little more problematic when he may or may not be facing rape/murder charges.
O.N. THUG'S REPLY #2:
Berkman's 33 this season. Likely on the tail end of his prime, probably going to trend downward over the next 5 seasons.
The question isn't how the average player fares as they age. The more appropriate question is how do players of Berkman's caliber and health fare a they age?
I've talked about career arcs before - conventional wisdom is that hitters tend to improve until they hit 27, plateau until 33, and then decrease production until they fall off the cliff, generally around 36. This is particularly the case for players up the middle, with wear and tear from fielding.
But, what has happened over the last decade? Players are playing at high levels for longer, particularly the high OBP and power guys that you see at 1B, and DH. And when you see players fall off the cliff, it's due to injury. They're the ones who have chronic injuries catch up (think Mo Vaughn, Albert Belle, Jeff Bagwell, etc.). The guys who are healthy keep on producing. Obviously, Bonds skews these numbers quite a bit. But look at a couple guys with career .975 OPS: Frank Thomas, who was much maligned toward the end had a .900+ OPS from the ages of 35 until 39. And Jim Thome has had a .900+ OPS since he turned 35. Jason Giambi's a career .940 OPS guys, who's put up .890 since he's turned 35. And similarly, Carlos Delgado is a career .925 OPS guy, and since he turned 35, he's been about .830, and that includes a miserable year in 2007.
This is the reference point that makes more sense to look at when you try to look down the road. And if anything, Berkman's been healthier than the guys that I've just listed. Berkman's averaged 153 games played per season, since his first full year in the majors, in 2001 (rookie in 2000, played 114 games). The key is that he's been healthy. There will be a fall off. He won't be the .975 OPS guy that he's been to this point. But there's a good chance that he'll keep being around .900, for a number of years to come.
Conversely, Joe Mauer has already lost big chunks of time in two separate seasons. And this year, he hasn't played, yet. I don't know if it's the sort of trauma that you bounce back from, or if it's the chronic injury that stays with you. But over the next 6 years, if you had to guess who was going to play more games, Berkman or Mauer, you'd probably have to go with Berkman.
PHATSNAPPER'S REPLY:
The point of the veto is to maintain the leagues level of competitiveness? so if its april even though you so- called God's gift of the waiver wire fantasy baseball experts know baseball so well. Why can't a trade happen if we think there is value for both teams.
I am a trader. I make trades on perceived value all the time. I promise its not that black and white. If it were that easy buy and hold would work...(insert if you bought stocks in before 1960 you would still be up a lot money argument here.) who of you was alive in 1960. I take money from boring accountant/engineer linear thinking people every day.
This auto-veto in a free league is absolutely retarded. so if thats the case. why doesnt roland rebalance all the teams? wait let me guess ? you guys probably also think we should bail out GM Ford and Chrysler for making shitty cars for the last 20 years. BRILLIANT
I will also bet you that Dukes puts up as good a numbers as matt holliday on a annualized 162 game stretch this year within 10 percent. I will bet 1000 bux on it if anyone wants to take me up on it.
O.N. THUG'S REPLY:
Rup - there's a difference between proposing a bet and making an argument.
You've done the former, but still haven't done the latter. And you haven't even offered any reasonable explanation why my argument was bad. The basic procedure seems to be this:
a) proclaim loudly that you know more than anyone else, then
b) complain loudly against a decision and offer hyperbole, and finally
c) not offer either a reasonable explanation for why you're complaining or a rebuttal against my explanation.
I don't know - maybe we're being unreasonable. Especially after your last post, which made a lot of sense. After all, government bailouts are definitely more related to fantasy sports than having your player charged with rape/murder.
PHATSNAPPER'S REPLY:
Heres the problem. I just wrote a really long post but it got erased sic.
THERE IS NO WAY WITH ANY ACCURACY YOU CAN TELL ME HOLLIDAY IS GOING TO BE A BETTER PLAYER THAN DUKES OUTSIDE OF COORS. HE HAS NEVER PLAYED ANYWHERE ELSE AND CLEARLY COORS FIELD MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE. DANTE BICHETTE ANYONE? HOW BOUT TODD HELTON OR THAT 3B THAT I CAN REMEMBER HIS NAME?
he goes from the best hitting park in the majors to one of the worst. his numbers will take a major hit. and there is no way in hell he steals 28 bases. based on his career numbers hes like 12 steals a year. that was obviously a fluke.
as for dukes. he is one of the most talented young players in the game aside from his off-field issues. If he ever gets out of his own way and gets rid of all this attitude stuff he could be one of the best five tool players in the game.
In a keeper league uptrending and down-trending is very important. especially in a league with this many keepers.
berkman downtrending you dont think that matters? JUST ASK THE OWNERS OF DAVID ORTIZ ANDRUW JONES CHIPPER JETER MO VAUGHN? CHRIS CARPENTER? are they still great when healthy? sure carpenter was probably the Cy young winner if the season ended after 2 starts. Chipper is a OPS machine WHEN HE PLAYS. Berkman career is solid, but year to year he is a wild card trust me. I have had him in other keeper leagues before.
Is berkman better than MAUER considering position scarcity. I doubt it. Is Lester solid could be even better absolutely. and hes young with no arm issues.
So theres the argument. NOT EVERYTHING in FANTASY. IS THREE YEAR HISTORICAL PROJECTIONS IF THAT WAS THE CASE YOU WOULD WIN THE LEAGUE EVERY YEAR. CAUSE CLEARLY YOU KNOW MORE ABOUT THIS TOPIC THAN ANYONE. AND IF IT WERE THAT EASY WHY NOT JUST USE YOUR SUPER-COMPUTER AND JUST RUN THE SIMULATIONS AND TELL US WHO WINS AND WE COULD SAVE THE TIME AND REDRAFT AT MID-SEASON AND PLAY AGAIN..
its a Free LEAGUE. its not that either owner is dumping players. obviously I get a better deal for this year assuming your assumptions. This is not JEFF ROGERS territory. HOW CAN I IMPROVE MY TEAM if i can't make trades with someone that perceives value to be different? THE WAIVER WIRE...GOOD ONE. wow that takes a lot of strategy. So the only place strategy takes effect is the draft. again. I would rather auto set my team and see you guys next year.
The first veto for street when he was the closer for one game makes sense. THis one is just stupid. and I am tired of commishoners that think they are God's gift to fantasy because they have ten friends that want to play in a league wielding with an iron-fist. I see it all to often.
FOR THE RECORD. CLEARLY I AM GETTING A BETTER DEAL. but that doesn't mean i am not giving up future competiveness to win now.
as for the Rape charges. or whatever. DUKES is not going to jail and will be on the field the whole season and put up monster numbers. Worry about making your own teams better not someone who is toiling in last place. f'ing retarded.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Happy Ending*
I can't believe what I just saw...
Of all the scenarios that I had in my head, a 74-74 tie w/ the Thugs and Euros was not in the picture.
First of all, I had suggested that Sparty may have been better off not playing any of his players. It turns out this was true, but not quite the way I had figured. I was right on the call that Sparty risked giving up 0.5 in FG% if he didn't shoot well, since he had just picked up the percentage point, which suggested that he was very near the round-up/round-down point. Sure enough, a bad night of shooting, combined with a relatively high number of shots (23 of 64, or 35.9%) took him down the half point. What I didn't figure on mattering was the fact that Sparty was up on Chowtime by 4 BLK, and was equal in games. I had credited Sparty w/ the point, particularly since BLK are probably the toughest stat to acquire. Whoops. Chowtime managed to pull off 10 BLK with 4 players, whereas Sparty came up empty in BLK. Swing of 1 point. Result? Sparty can't pull of his UPL win. Ouch. It seems like every year Chowtime doesn't have quite enough to make the podium, but changes the order of finish on the last day.
Next, the Thugs shot 8 for 20 on the night, or 40%. This actually dropped them from 46.8% down to 46.7%. Now, if you think about it for a second, the impact of 20 shots on a rate stat like FG% where 818 games worth of shots should be absolutely minimal. In fact, a crude estimation on how much a 8 for 20 shooting night should matter on a team that's shot 46.8% over the course of 818 games, with its starters shooting 15 shots per game:
(.468 - .400) * 20 / (818 * 15) = 0.00011
For the 1/100th of a percent to matter, it means, that the Thugs were only around 46.75% shooting, rather than closer to the round-up value of 46.85%... so that was a mis-estimate. What's sick about that is that the offender in question was Brook Lopez, who shot 2 for 9. Lopez was shooting 53.1%. The odds of someone who normally goes 5.5 out of 10.3, only going 2 for 9 are small - an in fact, this was the single worst shooting night for Brook Lopez in the last 50 games. And more importantly, a case for more information from Yahoo! (or a finer resultion on rate stats). In any case, this is very ironic, because it turns out that the Thugs were trying to protect points in BLK, but didn't need to play any players. So, had the Thugs taken the advice intended for Sparty, they would not have lost the 0.5 point in FG% and would be solo champs. Although, in fairness, the Thugs were also trying to track down a coupld STL, where they finished 4 behind the Bricks.
And most importantly, it turns out that the rabbit was not actually dead. In fact, in a very Lazarus move, the rabbit rose from the dead, and by doing nothing, actually killed off 2 of the 3 greyhounds chasing it, and held the 3rd greyhound to a standstill. Very Monty Python meets scripture, in a bizarre, mentally unstable sort of way.
In any case, a big congrats to Stephen for his first UPL victory*, and congrats to, well, myself for the almost unprecedented UPL 4-peat** (two asterisks since we actually had 2 ties in this stretch), and coming back from the dead, which is where the Thugs were at the All-Star break.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs - 6-time** UPL Basketball Champions)
Of all the scenarios that I had in my head, a 74-74 tie w/ the Thugs and Euros was not in the picture.
First of all, I had suggested that Sparty may have been better off not playing any of his players. It turns out this was true, but not quite the way I had figured. I was right on the call that Sparty risked giving up 0.5 in FG% if he didn't shoot well, since he had just picked up the percentage point, which suggested that he was very near the round-up/round-down point. Sure enough, a bad night of shooting, combined with a relatively high number of shots (23 of 64, or 35.9%) took him down the half point. What I didn't figure on mattering was the fact that Sparty was up on Chowtime by 4 BLK, and was equal in games. I had credited Sparty w/ the point, particularly since BLK are probably the toughest stat to acquire. Whoops. Chowtime managed to pull off 10 BLK with 4 players, whereas Sparty came up empty in BLK. Swing of 1 point. Result? Sparty can't pull of his UPL win. Ouch. It seems like every year Chowtime doesn't have quite enough to make the podium, but changes the order of finish on the last day.
Next, the Thugs shot 8 for 20 on the night, or 40%. This actually dropped them from 46.8% down to 46.7%. Now, if you think about it for a second, the impact of 20 shots on a rate stat like FG% where 818 games worth of shots should be absolutely minimal. In fact, a crude estimation on how much a 8 for 20 shooting night should matter on a team that's shot 46.8% over the course of 818 games, with its starters shooting 15 shots per game:
(.468 - .400) * 20 / (818 * 15) = 0.00011
For the 1/100th of a percent to matter, it means, that the Thugs were only around 46.75% shooting, rather than closer to the round-up value of 46.85%... so that was a mis-estimate. What's sick about that is that the offender in question was Brook Lopez, who shot 2 for 9. Lopez was shooting 53.1%. The odds of someone who normally goes 5.5 out of 10.3, only going 2 for 9 are small - an in fact, this was the single worst shooting night for Brook Lopez in the last 50 games. And more importantly, a case for more information from Yahoo! (or a finer resultion on rate stats). In any case, this is very ironic, because it turns out that the Thugs were trying to protect points in BLK, but didn't need to play any players. So, had the Thugs taken the advice intended for Sparty, they would not have lost the 0.5 point in FG% and would be solo champs. Although, in fairness, the Thugs were also trying to track down a coupld STL, where they finished 4 behind the Bricks.
And most importantly, it turns out that the rabbit was not actually dead. In fact, in a very Lazarus move, the rabbit rose from the dead, and by doing nothing, actually killed off 2 of the 3 greyhounds chasing it, and held the 3rd greyhound to a standstill. Very Monty Python meets scripture, in a bizarre, mentally unstable sort of way.
In any case, a big congrats to Stephen for his first UPL victory*, and congrats to, well, myself for the almost unprecedented UPL 4-peat** (two asterisks since we actually had 2 ties in this stretch), and coming back from the dead, which is where the Thugs were at the All-Star break.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs - 6-time** UPL Basketball Champions)
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Endgame: Down to the Buzzer, The Final Chapter
Update @ April 15, 11:45pm:
Jabrones: Lost ground on BLK. They are out of contention, with a likely finish of 72 points.
Thugs: Only scored 1 STL, so they will not take the point from the Bricks. Thugs have shot 8 for 20, while Phatsnapper has shot 18 of 34, for 52.9%. Likely no move in FG% (Phatsnapper recently bumped up to .468). The Thugs have 2 AST to 3 TO, while Westy has 9 AST to 4 TO. Again, likely no move in A/TO. Likely finish is at 74.5.
Sparty: Shot a combined 23 for 64, or 35.9%, while the Bricks have shot well (22 of 43, or 51.2%) . It appears that the Bricks will hold steady in FG%, while Sparty may drop a half point to 74. Once again, my rhetorical question about whether Sparty's best move was to bench his players after he managed to pick up the half point.
We won't know the final outcome, since the rate stats are somewhat unpredictable w/ the info available. This makes me wish that they'd carry out the rate stats to a couple more decimal points, since the difference between 0.01 in, say A/TO, is a relatively large chunk, particularly since you rate 1.6251 as being the same as 1.6349, as both round to 1.63. It appears to be about 50-50 for for a tie at 74.5, and good chance for a miracle Thugs victory, 74.5 to 74.
Last day of the season, and things are still up in the air. But, what's interesting is that in the last week, the rabbit (the Euros, who were above 80 points, about a week ago) has been caught by the greyhounds. And now, it's less of a rabbit hunt, and more of a dog fight... I wonder where Michael Vick is right now...
Yep. A 2-way tie for first.
And looking at the stats, it appears to be a crapshoot.
There are potential 0.5 point swings in FG% for both the Thugs and Sparty. But that seems to be the extent of Sparty's movement. He'll probably finish at 74, 74.5, or 75, although if he manages to get like 12 steals out of his 4 players tonight, the league's over, in his favor, as that would win him one point from the Thugs. I'd guess that the most likely scenario is 74.5, with about a 24.5% chance of going up or going down that half point.
As for the Thugs, well, things are always a little different, and sort of special in that autistic/ semi-to-fully retarded sort of way.
The Thugs still have work to do. In addition to maintaining that 8 STL lead over Sparty, the Jabrones are 6 BLK back. Also, Westy's gunning for 0.5 point in A/T, from the Thugs. On the upside, the Thugs are only 2 STL back of the Bricks (aka Eddy's), and could still pick up a point there. If I had to guess, I think that the Thugs are more likely to take the point from the Bricks than to lose points to either Jabrones or Sparty. Also, I'd guess that picking up the 0.5 in FG% is about the same as losing the 0.5 in A/T, and I'd classify either as being unlikely (though not out of the question).
So, a reasonable, "good outcome" scenario is picking up 0.5 in FG%, and 1 in STL, and protecting the lead in BLK, and finishing with 76, and taking home the trophy. Of course the downside scenario is that multiple teams go nuts in just the wrong categories, and drop me to 73.5. But just like with Sparty, 74.5 is probably the most likely.
Does that mean that we're going to have another UPL tie? Well, I'd say that there's about a 40% chance of a tie (30% chance both teams stay, about 5% chance that both teams move up 0.5, and about a 5% chance that both teams move down 0.5). But if both teams move up, I like my chances, since that means that I took the point in STL from the Bricks.
And could there be a *Jabrone Slam (asterisk = having a 4-way tie as part of your "slam")? Not looking good, as the Jabrones would need to get at least 13 OREB and 7 BLK with 4 players, and also get help from the Bricks in FG% (ironic team name/stat category pairing) and STL. So in addition to having your bigs go nuts, you'd also be relying on the Bricks for quite a bit... probably not going to happen.
In any case, we've had quite the finish to the season. All we have left to do is the crowning of a champion.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Jabrones: Lost ground on BLK. They are out of contention, with a likely finish of 72 points.
Thugs: Only scored 1 STL, so they will not take the point from the Bricks. Thugs have shot 8 for 20, while Phatsnapper has shot 18 of 34, for 52.9%. Likely no move in FG% (Phatsnapper recently bumped up to .468). The Thugs have 2 AST to 3 TO, while Westy has 9 AST to 4 TO. Again, likely no move in A/TO. Likely finish is at 74.5.
Sparty: Shot a combined 23 for 64, or 35.9%, while the Bricks have shot well (22 of 43, or 51.2%) . It appears that the Bricks will hold steady in FG%, while Sparty may drop a half point to 74. Once again, my rhetorical question about whether Sparty's best move was to bench his players after he managed to pick up the half point.
We won't know the final outcome, since the rate stats are somewhat unpredictable w/ the info available. This makes me wish that they'd carry out the rate stats to a couple more decimal points, since the difference between 0.01 in, say A/TO, is a relatively large chunk, particularly since you rate 1.6251 as being the same as 1.6349, as both round to 1.63. It appears to be about 50-50 for for a tie at 74.5, and good chance for a miracle Thugs victory, 74.5 to 74.
Last day of the season, and things are still up in the air. But, what's interesting is that in the last week, the rabbit (the Euros, who were above 80 points, about a week ago) has been caught by the greyhounds. And now, it's less of a rabbit hunt, and more of a dog fight... I wonder where Michael Vick is right now...
| Rk | Team | Tot | FG% | FT% | 3PTM | PTS | ORB | REB | AST | ST | BLK | A/T |
| 1 | O.N. Thugs | 74.5 | 5.5 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 1 | Sparty Rules | 74.5 | 1.5 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | European Sellout | 74 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| 4 | IamJabrone | 72 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 3 |
| 5 | chowtime | 70.5 | 7.5 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Westy's FadinBallers | 69.5 | 7.5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Dribbling Balls | 63 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 8 | Floor burns | 54 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
| 9 | Milwaukee Bricks | 43.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Love Timberwolves | 41 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Phatsnapper | 23.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Yep. A 2-way tie for first.
| Rk | Team | GP | FG% | FT% | 3PTM | PTS | ORB | REB | AST | ST | BLK | A/T |
| 1 | O.N. Thugs | 820 | 0.468 | 0.799 | 591 | 13731 | 1452 | 4969 | 2853 | 810 | 577 | 1.63 |
| 1 | Sparty Rules | 816 | 0.463 | 0.827 | 972 | 12343 | 1038 | 5273 | 3203 | 802 | 542 | 1.98 |
| 3 | European Sellout | 820 | 0.473 | 0.772 | 858 | 13488 | 1114 | 4681 | 2995 | 913 | 589 | 1.70 |
| 4 | IamJabrone | 816 | 0.475 | 0.760 | 548 | 14137 | 1400 | 5135 | 2576 | 933 | 571 | 1.48 |
| 5 | chowtime | 816 | 0.471 | 0.817 | 803 | 13811 | 1126 | 4779 | 2719 | 759 | 538 | 1.78 |
| 6 | Westy's FadinBallers | 817 | 0.471 | 0.790 | 631 | 13065 | 1159 | 5093 | 2887 | 892 | 511 | 1.62 |
| 7 | Dribbling Balls | 798 | 0.464 | 0.751 | 787 | 12415 | 1176 | 4886 | 2707 | 872 | 626 | 1.68 |
| 8 | Floor burns | 820 | 0.465 | 0.789 | 754 | 11796 | 1412 | 4932 | 2254 | 757 | 603 | 1.44 |
| 9 | Milwaukee Bricks | 809 | 0.463 | 0.757 | 937 | 11839 | 1147 | 4521 | 2427 | 812 | 474 | 1.61 |
| 10 | Love Timberwolves | 699 | 0.478 | 0.801 | 384 | 11670 | 1304 | 4764 | 2095 | 681 | 432 | 1.39 |
| 11 | Phatsnapper | 646 | 0.468 | 0.785 | 533 | 10197 | 946 | 3880 | 2149 | 623 | 415 | 1.54 |
And looking at the stats, it appears to be a crapshoot.
There are potential 0.5 point swings in FG% for both the Thugs and Sparty. But that seems to be the extent of Sparty's movement. He'll probably finish at 74, 74.5, or 75, although if he manages to get like 12 steals out of his 4 players tonight, the league's over, in his favor, as that would win him one point from the Thugs. I'd guess that the most likely scenario is 74.5, with about a 24.5% chance of going up or going down that half point.
As for the Thugs, well, things are always a little different, and sort of special in that autistic/ semi-to-fully retarded sort of way.
The Thugs still have work to do. In addition to maintaining that 8 STL lead over Sparty, the Jabrones are 6 BLK back. Also, Westy's gunning for 0.5 point in A/T, from the Thugs. On the upside, the Thugs are only 2 STL back of the Bricks (aka Eddy's), and could still pick up a point there. If I had to guess, I think that the Thugs are more likely to take the point from the Bricks than to lose points to either Jabrones or Sparty. Also, I'd guess that picking up the 0.5 in FG% is about the same as losing the 0.5 in A/T, and I'd classify either as being unlikely (though not out of the question).
So, a reasonable, "good outcome" scenario is picking up 0.5 in FG%, and 1 in STL, and protecting the lead in BLK, and finishing with 76, and taking home the trophy. Of course the downside scenario is that multiple teams go nuts in just the wrong categories, and drop me to 73.5. But just like with Sparty, 74.5 is probably the most likely.
Does that mean that we're going to have another UPL tie? Well, I'd say that there's about a 40% chance of a tie (30% chance both teams stay, about 5% chance that both teams move up 0.5, and about a 5% chance that both teams move down 0.5). But if both teams move up, I like my chances, since that means that I took the point in STL from the Bricks.
And could there be a *Jabrone Slam (asterisk = having a 4-way tie as part of your "slam")? Not looking good, as the Jabrones would need to get at least 13 OREB and 7 BLK with 4 players, and also get help from the Bricks in FG% (ironic team name/stat category pairing) and STL. So in addition to having your bigs go nuts, you'd also be relying on the Bricks for quite a bit... probably not going to happen.
In any case, we've had quite the finish to the season. All we have left to do is the crowning of a champion.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Headlines
I swear, I'm still in 5th grade, but I still laugh hysterically whenever I see a headline like:
Rays rough up Wang
You see, that's funny because Wang is slang for wiener, which is slang for penis, which is slang for Wang. Plus, it's funny because Wang got roughed up, which is slang for masturbation, which is slang for spanking the monkey.
It's also funny because I'm a moron.
Heh... I can already see Westy rolling his eyes and C-Lauff laughing hysterically...
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Rays rough up Wang
You see, that's funny because Wang is slang for wiener, which is slang for penis, which is slang for Wang. Plus, it's funny because Wang got roughed up, which is slang for masturbation, which is slang for spanking the monkey.
It's also funny because I'm a moron.
Heh... I can already see Westy rolling his eyes and C-Lauff laughing hysterically...
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Endgame: Down to the Buzzer, Part III
Quick update, as the NBA regular season (and therefore UPL Basketball) winds down. The current standings:
Somewhat incredibly, the O.N. Thugs have made it back to the top of the mountain, heading into the last 4 days of the season. And the UPL regulars know that if the O.N. Thugs manage to hold off the pack, the trash talk will be immense.
So, what's the prognosis for the last few days? We'll assume that the rate stats hold firm, as the number of games available are quickly running out.
The O.N. Thugs will pick up 1 point in REB from Floor Burns, will likely lose 1 point in PTS to Chowtime, and have 2 more points that are up in the air (STL w/ Eddy's and BLK w/ Jabrones). So, the final scores for the Thugs will range from 74 to 76, with 75 being a pretty likely outcome.
The Euros will still lose another 0.5 point in OREB to chowtime, and look to be pretty stable at 74 points.
Sparty also appears to be locked in at 74 points.
The Jabrones may get the point in BLK from the Thugs, and have a chance to get one more point in OREB from Floor Burns. Which would put them at 74 points.
So what had appeared to be a 3 team race is now a 4-team race. And more interestingly, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the UPL will end up with a 4-way tie for first.
Of course, there's still a chance that the rate stats could move, with the most likely shift being Westy taking back 0.5 points in FG% from the Euros, though it looks pretty steady on that end. And once again, we're heading for a very dramatic finish. Anyone want to bet a dollar on the finish?
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
| Rank | Team | Tot | FG% | FT% | 3PTM | PTS | OREB | REB | AST | ST | BLK | A/T |
| 1 | O.N. Thugs | 76 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 2 | European Sellout | 74.5 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 3.5 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Sparty Rules | 74 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| 4 | IamJabrone | 72 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 3 |
| 5 | Westy's FadinBallers | 70 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | chowtime | 65.5 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 3.5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Dribbling Balls | 64 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 8 | Floor burns | 57 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 2 |
| 9 | Eddy's Crusty Towels | 42 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| 9 | Love Timberwolves | 42 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Phatsnapper | 23 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Somewhat incredibly, the O.N. Thugs have made it back to the top of the mountain, heading into the last 4 days of the season. And the UPL regulars know that if the O.N. Thugs manage to hold off the pack, the trash talk will be immense.
| Rank | Team | GP | FG% | FT% | 3PTM | PTS | OREB | REB | AST | ST | BLK | A/T |
| 1 | O.N. Thugs | 814 | 0.468 | 0.8 | 589 | 13659 | 1438 | 4924 | 2830 | 805 | 568 | 1.63 |
| 2 | European Sellout | 817 | 0.473 | 0.772 | 851 | 13434 | 1112 | 4672 | 2982 | 912 | 588 | 1.71 |
| 3 | Sparty Rules | 808 | 0.462 | 0.828 | 965 | 12212 | 1029 | 5225 | 3159 | 792 | 534 | 1.97 |
| 4 | IamJabrone | 807 | 0.474 | 0.76 | 541 | 13969 | 1381 | 5067 | 2546 | 925 | 565 | 1.47 |
| 5 | Westy's FadinBallers | 808 | 0.472 | 0.791 | 623 | 12932 | 1143 | 5034 | 2852 | 879 | 508 | 1.62 |
| 6 | chowtime | 803 | 0.471 | 0.818 | 794 | 13579 | 1112 | 4687 | 2679 | 741 | 521 | 1.78 |
| 7 | Dribbling Balls | 789 | 0.465 | 0.751 | 779 | 12309 | 1167 | 4846 | 2685 | 859 | 623 | 1.68 |
| 8 | Floor burns | 819 | 0.466 | 0.789 | 752 | 11788 | 1411 | 4927 | 2250 | 757 | 602 | 1.43 |
| 9 | Eddy's Crusty Towels | 798 | 0.463 | 0.756 | 924 | 11698 | 1131 | 4466 | 2400 | 804 | 463 | 1.61 |
| 9 | Love Timberwolves | 690 | 0.479 | 0.802 | 383 | 11533 | 1281 | 4699 | 2076 | 675 | 426 | 1.39 |
| 11 | Phatsnapper | 638 | 0.467 | 0.786 | 529 | 10065 | 933 | 3835 | 2126 | 616 | 409 | 1.54 |
So, what's the prognosis for the last few days? We'll assume that the rate stats hold firm, as the number of games available are quickly running out.
The O.N. Thugs will pick up 1 point in REB from Floor Burns, will likely lose 1 point in PTS to Chowtime, and have 2 more points that are up in the air (STL w/ Eddy's and BLK w/ Jabrones). So, the final scores for the Thugs will range from 74 to 76, with 75 being a pretty likely outcome.
The Euros will still lose another 0.5 point in OREB to chowtime, and look to be pretty stable at 74 points.
Sparty also appears to be locked in at 74 points.
The Jabrones may get the point in BLK from the Thugs, and have a chance to get one more point in OREB from Floor Burns. Which would put them at 74 points.
So what had appeared to be a 3 team race is now a 4-team race. And more interestingly, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the UPL will end up with a 4-way tie for first.
Of course, there's still a chance that the rate stats could move, with the most likely shift being Westy taking back 0.5 points in FG% from the Euros, though it looks pretty steady on that end. And once again, we're heading for a very dramatic finish. Anyone want to bet a dollar on the finish?
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Endgame: Down to the Buzzer, Part II
And down the stretch they come.
Here's the current standings:
And here are the current stats:
Things are starting to solidify, in terms of how the UPL Basketball season will finish up.
As predicted, it's looking like a 3 team race:
The Euro's are starting to fade a little bit. Currently, they're at 80.5 points. Using the same estimates as we did before, it looks like they're going to lose 6.5 points from the counting stats (2 in PTS, 1.5 in OREB, 2 in REB, 1 in ST) , and could go anywhere from -1 to +2 in FG%. A safe estimate is that they finish with 74.5 points, though my best guess is that 75 is more likely than 74.
Sparty looks awfully stable right now. Maybe 1 point in ST (O.N. Thugs) and Maybe 1 point in FG% (Eddy's). It's looking like maybe 75 points. Not much higher, but any lower than 74, from what I'm seeing.
So the biggest question mark is with the O.N. Thugs. I'll definitely get 1 point in PTS (Euro's), I'll also get 1 point in REB (Floor Burns). That puts me at 76. However, there's work left to do. I need to hold off Sparty in steals. If I do that, they that leaves Sparty at a max of 75, and likely only 74. At the same time, I've got an outside shot at getting 1 point in STL from Eddy's. Similarly, I've got a small chance of getting 1 point in AST from Westy and getting 1 point in BLK from Euro. If I manage to go nuts with steals and blocks down the stretch, then there's a good chance that I take home the gold. Of course, I need to hold off Chowtime in PTS, and both Westy and Eddy's in A/T.
So what does that all mean? I have no idea. My best guess is that I'm looking at 76 points. I think that I've got a fair shot at winning this, but there's definitely work left to be done.
All I know is that after spending most of the season in 9th place w/ C-Lauff, this is sort of fun.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Here's the current standings:
| Rk | Team | FG% | FT% | 3PTM | PTS | OREB | REB | AST | ST | BLK | A/T | Total |
| 1 | European Sellout | 8 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 5.5 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 80.5 |
| 2 | O.N. Thugs | 6 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 74 |
| 2 | Sparty Rules | 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 74 |
| 4 | IamJabrone | 10 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 71 |
| 5 | Westy's FadinBallers | 9 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5.5 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 5.5 | 70 |
| 6 | Dribbling Balls | 3.5 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 64.5 |
| 7 | chowtime | 7 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 63 |
| 8 | Floor burns | 3.5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 56.5 |
| 9 | Eddy's Crusty Towels | 2 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5.5 | 42.5 |
| 10 | Love Timberwolves | 11 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 41 |
| 11 | Phatsnapper | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 23 |
And here are the current stats:
| Rk | Team | GP | FG% | FT% | 3PTM | PTS | OREB | REB | AST | ST | BLK | A/T |
| 1 | European Sellout | 814 | 0.472 | 0.772 | 844 | 13377 | 1110 | 4664 | 2963 | 909 | 587 | 1.71 |
| 2 | O.N. Thugs | 798 | 0.468 | 0.799 | 573 | 13362 | 1420 | 4832 | 2758 | 786 | 560 | 1.62 |
| 2 | Sparty Rules | 789 | 0.462 | 0.827 | 940 | 11924 | 1003 | 5112 | 3095 | 777 | 522 | 1.97 |
| 4 | IamJabrone | 794 | 0.474 | 0.76 | 533 | 13716 | 1350 | 4970 | 2491 | 908 | 555 | 1.46 |
| 5 | Westy's FadinBallers | 791 | 0.473 | 0.791 | 600 | 12668 | 1110 | 4943 | 2784 | 869 | 503 | 1.61 |
| 6 | Dribbling Balls | 771 | 0.466 | 0.752 | 760 | 12090 | 1150 | 4755 | 2646 | 852 | 612 | 1.69 |
| 7 | chowtime | 788 | 0.471 | 0.819 | 776 | 13297 | 1093 | 4588 | 2632 | 733 | 511 | 1.77 |
| 8 | Floor burns | 817 | 0.466 | 0.789 | 750 | 11764 | 1402 | 4908 | 2243 | 755 | 601 | 1.43 |
| 9 | Eddy's Crusty Towels | 784 | 0.463 | 0.756 | 910 | 11479 | 1109 | 4393 | 2366 | 793 | 455 | 1.61 |
| 10 | Love Timberwolves | 679 | 0.48 | 0.803 | 378 | 11354 | 1257 | 4616 | 2040 | 663 | 421 | 1.39 |
| 11 | Phatsnapper | 631 | 0.467 | 0.788 | 523 | 9962 | 919 | 3781 | 2102 | 610 | 408 | 1.53 |
Things are starting to solidify, in terms of how the UPL Basketball season will finish up.
As predicted, it's looking like a 3 team race:
The Euro's are starting to fade a little bit. Currently, they're at 80.5 points. Using the same estimates as we did before, it looks like they're going to lose 6.5 points from the counting stats (2 in PTS, 1.5 in OREB, 2 in REB, 1 in ST) , and could go anywhere from -1 to +2 in FG%. A safe estimate is that they finish with 74.5 points, though my best guess is that 75 is more likely than 74.
Sparty looks awfully stable right now. Maybe 1 point in ST (O.N. Thugs) and Maybe 1 point in FG% (Eddy's). It's looking like maybe 75 points. Not much higher, but any lower than 74, from what I'm seeing.
So the biggest question mark is with the O.N. Thugs. I'll definitely get 1 point in PTS (Euro's), I'll also get 1 point in REB (Floor Burns). That puts me at 76. However, there's work left to do. I need to hold off Sparty in steals. If I do that, they that leaves Sparty at a max of 75, and likely only 74. At the same time, I've got an outside shot at getting 1 point in STL from Eddy's. Similarly, I've got a small chance of getting 1 point in AST from Westy and getting 1 point in BLK from Euro. If I manage to go nuts with steals and blocks down the stretch, then there's a good chance that I take home the gold. Of course, I need to hold off Chowtime in PTS, and both Westy and Eddy's in A/T.
So what does that all mean? I have no idea. My best guess is that I'm looking at 76 points. I think that I've got a fair shot at winning this, but there's definitely work left to be done.
All I know is that after spending most of the season in 9th place w/ C-Lauff, this is sort of fun.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Opening Moves and Historical Precedents
Baseball is underway. And so far, things are a mess, particularly for starting pitching. Like every year, you have a handful of players who were highly drafted get off to slow starts. If you take a look at the first page of starting pitchers (organized by Yahoo! rankings), you see that 13 of the top 25 pitchers have made starts. And the results are sort of ugly. They've gone a combined 4-7, Seven of the 13 pitchers have ERA's over 5 (three of them are over 10!), and five of the pitchers have WHIP's of 2 or more. Needless to say, some teams have ugly pitching stats right now (four teams have ERA's over 6, and three of them have WHIP's of 1.45 or more).
Sadly, this probably won't last (sad, because my team has gotten off to a reasonable start). Last year, team ERA's ranged from 3.38 to 4.46, and WHIP's ranged from 1.21 to 1.39. In 2007, ERA's ranged from 3.43 to 4.20. In fact, if you look at the history of the UPL, since the change to the roto format, ERA's have ranged from 3.23 to 4.72. And the range of WHIP's have been from 1.20 to 1.45.
I've talked before about how important it is to have clear idea of what it will take to win, in terms of total points. I've also talked about the usefulness of having projections for your team as you start a season. I think that this post is somewhat similar to both of the prior posts that I've made. Essentially, having a historical perspective of what the median and maximum of each stat category is pretty useful (the minimum isn't quite as useful since some teams will punt on a particular stat category). This gives you an idea of where your team will likely fall, and gives you a start point for evaluation of your team.
So what do historical numbers look like in the UPL? Take a look:
What does this table mean? Well, the Best column is the all time best for any of these stats. The Avg Max column is the average maximum score, across all seasons. And the Avg Mid column is the average median score, across all seasons. Basically, if you want to finish in the top half of any category, you will probably need to get more than the Avg Mid value. Of course, there are some things to consider - the number of teams in the UPL hasn't always been the same (ranging from 11 to 14). And the UPL has seen some historically silly numbers (that may or may not have been performance enhanced).
This also helps you out when you look at the difference between the median and the maximum scores for each category. For example, if you look at WHIP, a shift in 0.08 takes you from the middle of the pack to the max. However, with ERA, you'll need to improve by about 0.50 to go from the middle to the top. This suggests that extra efforts in WHIP will probably give you more of a bump in the standings than ERA. Now, this is a bit of a crude analysis - to really get a picture of what improvements in a given category will do for you in the standings needs something a little finer. But you get the idea. The % Move category tells you a little more, specifically, how much of a change in each category (based on the median value) it will take to move to the top. Obviously, this isn't perfect, but it gives you a little better picture for how much of a shift in each category you need to really make a difference.
In any case, the big idea is that baseball is a marathon. Being in first place one day in doesn't really guarantee success. That is, unless it happens to be the O.N. Thugs who are in first place...
...which they are. So maybe all of this is moot.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Sadly, this probably won't last (sad, because my team has gotten off to a reasonable start). Last year, team ERA's ranged from 3.38 to 4.46, and WHIP's ranged from 1.21 to 1.39. In 2007, ERA's ranged from 3.43 to 4.20. In fact, if you look at the history of the UPL, since the change to the roto format, ERA's have ranged from 3.23 to 4.72. And the range of WHIP's have been from 1.20 to 1.45.
I've talked before about how important it is to have clear idea of what it will take to win, in terms of total points. I've also talked about the usefulness of having projections for your team as you start a season. I think that this post is somewhat similar to both of the prior posts that I've made. Essentially, having a historical perspective of what the median and maximum of each stat category is pretty useful (the minimum isn't quite as useful since some teams will punt on a particular stat category). This gives you an idea of where your team will likely fall, and gives you a start point for evaluation of your team.
So what do historical numbers look like in the UPL? Take a look:
| Historical Values | ||||
| Best | Avg Max | Avg Mid | % Move | |
| R | 1031 | 975 | 867 | 12.4% |
| HR | 294 | 273 | 223 | 22.5% |
| RBI | 1003 | 953 | 846 | 12.7% |
| SB | 220 | 173 | 113 | 52.8% |
| OBP | 0.391 | 0.377 | 0.355 | 6.0% |
| SLG | 0.528 | 0.505 | 0.472 | 7.0% |
| W | 108 | 96 | 80 | 20.8% |
| L | 36 | 49 | 68 | 27.3% |
| SV | 160 | 145 | 79 | 83.9% |
| K | 1319 | 1235.5 | 999 | 23.7% |
| ERA | 3.23 | 3.45 | 3.94 | 12.5% |
| WHIP | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.29 | 6.2% |
What does this table mean? Well, the Best column is the all time best for any of these stats. The Avg Max column is the average maximum score, across all seasons. And the Avg Mid column is the average median score, across all seasons. Basically, if you want to finish in the top half of any category, you will probably need to get more than the Avg Mid value. Of course, there are some things to consider - the number of teams in the UPL hasn't always been the same (ranging from 11 to 14). And the UPL has seen some historically silly numbers (that may or may not have been performance enhanced).
This also helps you out when you look at the difference between the median and the maximum scores for each category. For example, if you look at WHIP, a shift in 0.08 takes you from the middle of the pack to the max. However, with ERA, you'll need to improve by about 0.50 to go from the middle to the top. This suggests that extra efforts in WHIP will probably give you more of a bump in the standings than ERA. Now, this is a bit of a crude analysis - to really get a picture of what improvements in a given category will do for you in the standings needs something a little finer. But you get the idea. The % Move category tells you a little more, specifically, how much of a change in each category (based on the median value) it will take to move to the top. Obviously, this isn't perfect, but it gives you a little better picture for how much of a shift in each category you need to really make a difference.
In any case, the big idea is that baseball is a marathon. Being in first place one day in doesn't really guarantee success. That is, unless it happens to be the O.N. Thugs who are in first place...
| Rank | Team | Points | Pts Change | Waiver | Moves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | O.N. Thugs | 101.5 | 4 | 5 | 8 | |
| 2. | Cheeseheads | 97.5 | -8 | 8 | 5 | |
| 3. | Muddy Mush Heads | 88 | -0.5 | 4 | 4 | |
| 4. | Phatsnapper | 87 | -8.5 | 10 | 7 | |
| 5. | Hats for Bats | 84.5 | -4 | 11 | 5 | |
| 6. | '90 Reds | 81 | -1.5 | 2 | 4 | |
| 7. | Black Sox | 75 | -2.5 | 6 | 2 | |
| 8. | IamJabrone | 74.5 | 9 | 9 | 7 | |
| 9. | IStillSuckCurveballs | 72 | 14.5 | 1 | 2 | |
| 10. | Benver Droncos | 66 | -1.5 | 12 | 6 | |
| 11. | TheJimmyDixLongballs | 59 | -14 | 3 | 3 | |
| 12. | Westy's Sluggers | 50 | 13 | 7 | 4 |
...which they are. So maybe all of this is moot.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
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