Endgame: Down to the Buzzer

The basketball season is coming down to an end, with 10 to 11 games remaining for each team. So, that means that each UPL franchise will have time to play about 100 games or so, out of the 820 possible games. So what's the story?

Rank		Team	Points	Pts Change	Waiver	Moves
1.		European Sellout	81	-2	8	5
2.		Sparty Rules	72	1	9	1
3.		O.N. Thugs	70.5	0.5	5	14
3.		Westy's Ballers	70.5	-0.5	1	17
5.		IamJabrone	68.5	1.5	11	29
6.		Floor burns	66.5	0	2	2
7.		Dribbling Balls	64.5	-0.5	7	2
8.		chowtime	61	0	6	10
9.		Eddy's Crusty Towels	42.5	-0.5	3	3
10.		Love Timberwolves	41	0	4	-
11.		Phatsnapper	22	0.5	10	1

So, Stephen is still in 1st place. As previously discussed, Westy has fallen from his spot as the prohibitive leader, largely due to injuries to Al Jefferson (and to a lesser extent KG/Nene). But he's still a contender. And, as previously speculated, Sparty has emerged as a contender, as have C-Lauff, and a certain traditionally strong team that has gotten hot of late.

But the more important information comes if you look a little deeper.

Team	FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	OREB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T	Total
European Sellout	8	4	9	10	6	5	10	11	9	9	81
Sparty Rules	1	11	11	4	2	11	11	4	6	11	72
O.N. Thugs	5.5	8	4	9	10	7	8	5	8	6	70.5
Westy's Ballers	9.5	7	5	7	5	9	9	9	5	5	70.5
IamJabrone	9.5	3	3	11	9	8	5	10	7	3	68.5
Floor burns	3	6	8	6	11	10	3	6.5	11	2	66.5
Dribbling Balls	5.5	2	6	5	7	6	7	8	10	8	64.5
chowtime	7	10	7	8	3	3	6	3	4	10	61
Eddy's Crusty Towels	2	1	10	3	4	2	4	6.5	3	7	42.5
Love Timberwolves	11	9	1	2	8	4	1	2	2	1	41
Phatsnapper	4	5	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	4	22

The first look gives a little insight. But you really need to look at the info above in conjunction with the stats below. Essentially, this is a primer on what I've been calling upward/downard stability/mobility.

Team	G	FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	OREB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T
European Sellout	771	0.472	0.773	789	12610	1065	4413	2782	863	557	1.69
Sparty Rules	730	0.46	0.826	865	10928	943	4773	2782	711	495	1.91
O.N. Thugs	737	0.467	0.796	539	12268	1316	4439	2530	718	511	1.61
Westy's Ballers	733	0.473	0.793	561	11837	1043	4618	2568	801	468	1.6
IamJabrone	733	0.473	0.761	499	12638	1255	4563	2290	845	508	1.45
Floor burns	788	0.464	0.79	724	11345	1339	4707	2170	729	570	1.43
Dribbling Balls	709	0.467	0.759	704	11313	1073	4411	2467	779	569	1.67
chowtime	726	0.47	0.819	710	12111	1012	4180	2453	677	453	1.77
Eddy's Crusty Towels	728	0.462	0.758	829	10650	1033	4093	2215	726	431	1.62
Love Timberwolves	633	0.478	0.8	357	10492	1164	4242	1895	609	389	1.38
Phatsnapper	594	0.465	0.789	479	9358	873	3604	1996	580	379	1.52

Note: I was trying to format the table, as some of the stats were cutoff, but screwed it up, so the stats are now as of 3/28. The analysis below remains unchanged.

Now, things get interesting. It's a little hard to read, but take a closer look. You can get a nice picture of how things may play out down the stretch. First of all, you should figure out where Stephen will finish out, given the 30 games that he's up on the contenders.

To figure out where a given team will finish, you simply look at each stat category, and figure out where shifts in points may happen. We can hold off on the rate stats for a second, and focus on the counting stats. Obviously, nothing's happening w/ 3PM for Stephen. However, with PTS, you see that he'll lose 2 points (to O.N. Thugs, Chowtime), and maybe 1 more point to OD. Similarly, you expect him to lose 2 points in OREB (Eddy and Westy) and 1 point in STL (C-Lauff). Additionally, there may be losses of 1 point in REB (LoveT'Wolves), and up to 2 points in AST (O.N. Thugs, Westy). So tally it up. He'll very likely lose 5 points, and could lose up to 4 more. So, a realistic scenario is the loss of 7 points. He should pick one point back up in BLK (Floor Burns). So effectively, Stephen's score isn't 81, but something more like 75. Now, if you factor in the rate stats, you see that there isn't much play in any category, other than FG%. There, he could go up 2 points, but could also drop 1 point. Credit him with half a point, and put his target nubmer at 75.5 points.

So, that's the rabbit. Can any of the greyhounds catch Stephen?

First, look at Sparty. His points are very stable, actually. Looking across the line, you see that he'll probably pick up 1 point in PTS, 1 point in STL (both from Floor Burns), and may get 1 more point in STL (O.N. Thugs), 1 more in BLK (C-Lauff), and 1 more in FG% (Eddy), but may lose 1 (Love T'Wolves). So, you can credit Sparty with 3.5 more points, for a total of 75.5 points. Probably not quite enough to overtake Stephen.

Now, we'll go to Westy. He should pick up 1 point in OREB (Stephen), 1 in REB (Floor Burns). He could pick up another point in AST (Stephen), and a half point in FG% (from C-Lauff), but could lose a point in PTS (to OD). Tally it up, and you figure that he'll pick up 2.5 points, and end up with 73 points.

As for C-Lauff, you can credit him for 1 point each in REB and OREB (both from Floor Burns), 1 point in STL (Stephen). Additionally, he may pick up a point in BLK (O.N. Thugs) and half a point from Westy in FG%, though there's a chance that he loses a point in BLK (Sparty) and to a lesser extent, possibly 2 points in FT% (OD and Eddy) . If you credit him with 3 points, that puts C-Lauff at 71.5 points. Not looking as good as Westy or Sparty.

Now, for myself. I've got a point coming to me in PTS (Stephen) and REB, OREB, STL (all from Floor Burns). So that's 4 points coming, with some certainty. Now, things get a little dicey everywhere else. I've got a shot at 0.5 - 1.5 points in FG% (OD and chowtime). I've also got a shot at 1 point in AST (Westy), 1 point in STL and A/TO (both from Eddy), and an outside shot at 1 point in FT% (Love T'Wolves) and 1 point in BLK (Floor Burns). I also have to protect my lead in STL (Sparty). If you credit me with a net of 2 points out of that mess, then you're looking at right around 76.5 points for me, which puts me ahead of the magical 75.5 target, where Stephen projects out.

Of course, we were somewhat conservative on Stephen's target number. There's a chance that he finishes with 78 points, and no one can catch him. Or, he could fall down to 73 points, and it could be an absolute mess. My finishing range looks to be anywhere from 72.5-77.5 points. C-Lauff is looking at 69-73 points. Westy will be between 70-74.5, and Sparty will be between 74 and 77.

Now, the thing is, these projects are not necessarily self-fulfilling prophecies. You definitely need to go out and try to facilitate things that make the 50-50's go your way. You need to find ways to cheat an extra point here or there that aren't expected. And certainly, you have to be ready to respond to what your opponents are trying to do. What makes this so interesting is that there are a number of players all trying (in theory) to optimize things, so you have to take a couple chances here and there on strange pickups, particularly in the backdrop of a keeper league.

In any case, I don't think that C-Lauff can do it. And Westy's team has been falling after the Big Al injury. It's looking like a 3 team race. I know who I'm betting on. But then again, I always bet the same way.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Drafting and the Slingshot

I was just thinking a bit about the recent UPL draft, which I've recapped in some previous posts (also, Greg's put up his 2 cents worth). And I've come to a conclusion.

This was the highest caliber draft in the history of UPL Baseball. We've brought back most of the familiar faces, with Black Sox now a UPL fixture, CJ (JimmyDix) coming off of a 4th place finish, and a new, (presumably knowledgable) franchise in Hats for Bats. Naturally, strategy was going to be important.

A while back, I posted about draft strategies. An excerpt (with emphasis added):

The first place that the metagame matters is in the UPL is in the draft room. The first rule should be obvious. Figure out who's auto-drafting based on Yahoo! rankings. This is the single most important aspect of drafting in online drafts where not everyone is there (like in the UPL). So think of it this way. If you were the only live drafter in a draft, with everyone else auto-drafting, then you know exactly what players will be available for you. This is a huge advantage, as you turn a very dynamic problem, with 12 individuals, all acting independently, into a very static problem, with 1 individual operating in a known environment. We've never had a draft with only 1 live person, but we have had scenarios with multiple auto-drafters. A dream scenario for me would be something like drafting 8th, and having teams 9, 10, 11, and 12 all on auto-draft. In this scenario, I know with some precision exactly which 8 players are coming off the board before I draft again (obviously, this only works in one direction on the S curve, but you get the idea).

One thing that I immediately noticed was that I had a horrible draft position, based on who else was drafting live. Obviously, you want to be surrounded by auto-drafters (Westy, Benver, and Cheeseheads, if I recall correctly). Failing that, you want to be surrounded by predictable drafters. Of the UPL folks, you can put OD (likes the Red Sox), CJ (likes the White Sox), and Rupert (likes young, high potential prospects) on that list. And to a lesser extent, Westy (likes Minnesota).

Take a look at the top 4 picks. C-Lauff, Black Sox, Hats, O.N. Thugs. Defending champ. Strong UPL Newcomer. UPL rookie, but knows baseball (we think). GOAT. From my standpoint, I've got 3 of the top competitors in this league all drafting in a row, so that there are 6 picks in a row, where I can throw out the pre-ranks. Absolute nightmare of a draft position. The only worse position? Mush Heads, who also had me to worry about. In any case, this situation is basically the opposite of what I had written about as being ideal (having a bunch of autodrafters bunched up before/after you).

Conversely, look at the 9-12 slots in the draft: OD, Westy, Rupert, Benver. If you're drafting 8, then you know that after you pick, the next few picks will be: Best Red Sox Player Available, AutoDraft, Reach For Young Prospect That Won't Matter for 3 Years (If Ever), AutoDraft. And if you take a quick peek at the 6 and 7 slots, you have Cheeseheads and OD. So, you'll know that the players selected will be: AutoDraft, Best White Sox (or AL Central) Player Available. Greg had the fortune of being in the 8 slot. As I think about it, I wonder if I wouldn't have been willing to trade slots with Greg. Obviously, drafting at 4 give you a better 1st round pick in a somewhat top-heavy draft. But that 8 slot is really, really attractive.

In any case, based on what I wrote before, you'd figure that I'd be screwed. But I found one interesting thing associated with drafting at the end of a line of live drafters. In the early-middle rounds, I was able to be at the start of the runs that were made at the scarce positions. I'm going to call it the slingshot, like in NASCAR where you use the aerodynamic edge from the line of drafters to give you a little momentum coming out of the turn. In terms of the draft, you use the trends that a line of drafters builds, and then when you change directions, the effects are more dramatic.

Round 4 - Bottom of Top Tier SP. Available: Peavy, Halladay, Liriano, Billingsley, Haren.

Round 5 - Top Tier C. Available: Martin, McCann, Mauer, Soto, Victor Martinez.

In both rounds, I was able to get the guy I wanted. But more importantly, as I'm going into the turn, I'm able to sort of set the pace in the 4th. But coming out of the turn, I can really change directions, which I did by going C. The result is that the folks in the 1, 2, and 3 slots didn't really have the chance to respond, and one of them made a reach in the 6th (Ianetta) as a result. Now, something a little different came about in the 8th round, but it was set up in the 7th round.

Round 7 - Top Tier RP. Available: K-Rod, Soria, Jenks, Rivera, Nathan, Lidge.

Round 8 - Second Tier RP. Available: (Soria), Valverde, Broxton, Marmol, Capps

Round 9 - Second Tier SP. Available: Harden, Volquez, Burnett, Price. Not available: Joba, Kazmir.

I was able to get the two guys that I really wanted in the top tier of RP. But how it happened was interesting. I want to go closer in the 7th, so I go K-Rod, and gamble that I was the only who had Soria in the top tier of closers. The run on the top tier closers runs close to expected in the 7th, and on the way back, in the 8th, I get Soria. This puts pressure on C-Lauff, Black Sox, and Hats to go closer. My plan was to go SP in the 9th, and I was hoping that Kazmir or Joba would be available, because everyone was reaching to closers. It almost worked, but Black Sox held firm. But I was still able to get Harden (who I had behind Kazmir, but ahead of Joba).

Overall, when I was heading into the live drafters (4th and 8th rounds), we saw a response, where they pretty much snapped up the rest of the group. And when I was going away from the live drafters (5th and 7th rounds), they often didn't have a chance to respond, until later, at a somewhat inflated cost (I wouldn't really want to go into the 2nd tier of closers until the 10th round, but the teams were left scrambling, more or less).

Of course, the draft order doesn't matter nearly as much once you hit the 15th round, when everyone's guessing. The odds of someone guessing the same as you is much lower than in the early rounds.

I think that what I figured out during this year's draft has changed how I view drafts. In the past, my strategy was to use the full listing of player ranks, within each position, make a few edits, and then to draft based on value, with an emphasis on position. I think that new strategy is to create tiers of players based on similar value, rank players within a tier, go after the guy that you want, and then see if there's value still available in that tier. This does a couple things. First, it gives you a more concrete view of how valuable you think players are, which in turn makes it easier to see what a drop to the next tier will look like. This gives you a better feel of when to try to start a run on a given position, and when to participate in that run.

In retrospect, it looks like it may have been a bit tougher for the folks in the 1, 2, or 3 slots drafting, since they weren't able to participate in the runs (unless they were willing to reach for a pick, like one of the top tier C's in the 4th round).

In any case, I think that our view of drafting is getting more sophisticated, especially as we try to get a leg up on an increasingly skilled environment. Of cours, this may be easier if I'd actually prepare before hand, and not try to do this on the fly during the draft.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

The Anatomy of a Baseball Draft, Part III

Final installment. 12-round marathon. Get ready to roll, starting in round 13:

1.	Josh Johnson	IamJabrone
2.	José López	Black Sox
3.	Cameron Maybin	Hats for Bats
4.	Carlos Delgado	O.N. Thugs
5.	Aaron Harang	Muddy Mush H...
6.	Derek Lowe	Cheeseheads
7.	John Danks	TheJimmyDixL...
8.	Brian Wilson	'90 Reds
9.	Pat Burrell	IStillSuckCu...
10.	Matt Garza	Westy's Slug...
11.	Alex Gordon	Phatsnapper
12.	Ben Sheets	Benver Droncos

C-Lauff and Pauly go after young talent. I go with old, old talent in Carlos Delgado. I needed some pop, and Delgado was the last of the reliable power at 1B, save potentially Jason Giambi. We see a little run on pitching, which makes sense until Benver gets screwed with Ben Sheets. I don't mind grabbing someone and stashing them on my DL for the year. But that should be late (like starting with the 18th round). Nothing super strange here, though.

1.	Clayton Kershaw	Benver Droncos
2.	Erik Bedard	Phatsnapper
3.	Kevin Slowey	Westy's Slug...
4.	Mark DeRosa	IStillSuckCu...
5.	Milton Bradley	'90 Reds
6.	Jered Weaver	TheJimmyDixL...
7.	Mike González	Cheeseheads
8.	Randy Johnson	Muddy Mush H...
9.	James Loney	O.N. Thugs
10.	Chien-Ming Wang	Hats for Bats
11.	Joey Devine	Black Sox
12.	Mike Napoli	IamJabrone

Benver goes young wtih Clayton Kershaw, who apparently will be in a sink or swim sort of situation this year in LA. Rup gets potential value from an established source. Westy gets stuck w/ Kevin Slowey, whoever the hell he is. Greg switches from drafting young to drafting crazy with Milton Bradley (who's definitely my kind of player). Cheeseheads get a cheap closer. And the Mush Heads take a page out of the O.N. Thugs playbook and go with a very old player, in Randy Johnson. I think that Wang will end up being a steal in this round.

By the time my pick rolls around, OD had taken the 2B that I wanted (DeRosa). The next 2B on the board that I wanted was Kelly Johnson. But, I figure that I can get him next round. I go for raw talent with James Loney, who's coming off a tough season, but can still hit the ball (particularly on the road, if you look at his splits). In fact, if you look at his career road numbers, (.368/.553), and his age (25), you'd probably draft him in the 6th round or so. So, I'm happy with this pick, so long as I only play him on the road.

1.	Huston Street	IamJabrone
2.	Jorge Cantú	Black Sox
3.	Heath Bell	Hats for Bats
4.	Kelly Johnson	O.N. Thugs
5.	Johnny Cueto	Muddy Mush H...
6.	Ted Lilly	Cheeseheads
7.	Edwin Encarnación	TheJimmyDixL...
8.	Chad Qualls	'90 Reds
9.	Trevor Hoffman	IStillSuckCu...
10.	Bengie Molina	Westy's Slug...
11.	Miguel Tejada	Phatsnapper
12.	John Maine	Benver Droncos

The 15th round starts with C-Lauff goes for a Coors Field closer. Good luck, my friend. Heath Bell may be a sneaky closer in SD. I'm a little worried that Kelly Johnson (pre-rank #143) won't be available, if I let him go, so I get him with #172 overall, which is still a bit of a value. I didn't really think twice about this, but was a little disappointed when Cueto went off the board right after my pick. Rupert goes w/ Tejada. I wonder if Tejada had anything left in the tank.

1.	Gavin Floyd	Benver Droncos
2.	Brad Hawpe	Phatsnapper
3.	Jair Jurrjens	Westy's Slug...
4.	Jorge Posada	IStillSuckCu...
5.	Conor Jackson	'90 Reds
6.	Oliver Pérez	TheJimmyDixL...
7.	Justin Duchscherer	Cheeseheads
8.	Joel Hanrahan	Muddy Mush H...
9.	Chris Carpenter	O.N. Thugs
10.	Matt Lindstrom	Hats for Bats
11.	Frank Francisco	Black Sox
12.	Xavier Nady	IamJabrone

At this point, it's generally slim pickings. OD finds some potential value at C w/ Jorge Posada. Conor Jackson may end up with a little power. Oliver Perez will get a lot of K's, but may walk in too many runs... I go with a potentially huge play with Chris Carpenter. If he's healthy, he's a stud, and becomes potentially my 4th top-end starter. Of course, if he's not healthy, he's a waste. But in the 16th round, that sort of lottery ticket is just fine. At this point, I'm still looking for some more power, with not a whole lot left on the board.

1.	Kevin Gregg	IamJabrone
2.	Gil Meche	Black Sox
3.	Adrián Béltre	Hats for Bats
4.	Jim Thome	O.N. Thugs
5.	Jonathan Sánchez	Muddy Mush H...
6.	Manny Parra	Cheeseheads
7.	Ryan Theriot	TheJimmyDixL...
8.	Pablo Sandoval	'90 Reds
9.	J.D. Drew	IStillSuckCu...
10.	Fausto Carmona	Westy's Slug...
11.	Travis Hafner	Phatsnapper
12.	Ubaldo Jiménez	Benver Droncos

I end up with Thome. Every year, people talk about how his legs and back are going to give out. And every year, he seems to hit 35 HR. We'll see if it can happen for one more year. Again, if this works out, I've shored up my offense. If not, I'm hunting in free agency. At this point, everyone's guessing.

1.	Mike Pelfrey	Benver Droncos
2.	Elijah Dukes	Phatsnapper
3.	Fernando Rodney	Westy's Slug...
4.	Jason Giambi	IStillSuckCu...
5.	Joe Saunders	'90 Reds
6.	J.J. Putz	TheJimmyDixL...
7.	John Smoltz	Cheeseheads
8.	Chris Volstad	Muddy Mush H...
9.	Shin-Soo Choo	O.N. Thugs
10.	Phil Hughes	Hats for Bats
11.	Rick Ankiel	Black Sox
12.	Mark Reynolds	IamJabrone

Giambi in the 18th isn't bad. Same for Smoltz, Ankiel, or Reynolds. I'm actually really happy with the Choo pick. His numbers, primarily against righties, were good (.400/.550). Again, if I only play him against righties, this guy's going to be a stud. So, between he and Loney, I'll have a nice pseudo-platoon going.

1.	Billy Butler	IamJabrone
2.	Carlos Guillén	Black Sox
3.	Armando Galarraga	Hats for Bats
4.	Willy Taveras	O.N. Thugs
5.	Denard Span	Muddy Mush H...
6.	Kazuo Matsui	Cheeseheads
7.	Mark Buehrle	TheJimmyDixL...
8.	Ian Stewart	'90 Reds
9.	Mike Lowell	IStillSuckCu...
10.	Adam LaRoche	Westy's Slug...
11.	Adam Jones	Phatsnapper
12.	Hideki Matsui	Benver Droncos

In the 19th, I grab some cheap steals. The rest of the round is the same as the rest of the draft. OD gets a Red Sox player. CJ gets a White Sox player. Westy gets screwed by the auto-draft. And Rupert picks up a prospect who's a couple years away.

1.	Khalil Greene	Benver Droncos
2.	Matt LaPorta	Phatsnapper
3.	Mike Cameron	Westy's Slug...
4.	Jason Varitek	IStillSuckCu...
5.	Troy Percival	'90 Reds
6.	José Guillén	TheJimmyDixL...
7.	Nick Swisher	Cheeseheads
8.	Rickie Weeks	Muddy Mush H...
9.	George Sherrill	O.N. Thugs
10.	Orlando Cabrera	Hats for Bats
11.	Mike Jacobs	Black Sox
12.	Kelvim Escobar	IamJabrone

The 20th round is about the same. LaPorta's got a lot of upside, but you wonder how long it will take for him to stick in the majors. Percival will get Greg some saves. Guillen is probably good for 20 HR and 90 RBI, not bad for late in the draft. I think that Sherrill will do reasonably well, and I can afford a little hit to the rate stats if he does get touched up a bit. Kelvim Escobar is a potentially strong pick for C-Lauff.

1.	Jason Motte	IamJabrone
2.	Delmon Young	Black Sox
3.	Iván Rodríguez	Hats for Bats
4.	Shaun Marcum	O.N. Thugs
5.	Adam Lind	Muddy Mush H...
6.	Paul Konerko	Cheeseheads
7.	Orlando Hudson	TheJimmyDixL...
8.	Rajai Davis	'90 Reds
9.	Jed Lowrie	IStillSuckCu...
10.	Carlos Gómez	Westy's Slug...
11.	Colby Rasmus	Phatsnapper
12.	Troy Glaus	Benver Droncos

The 21st round didn't bring a whole lot of excitement. If Motte wins the closer job in StL, the C-Lauff found a steal. Similarly, if Glaus comes back healthy in May, the Benver gets a steal, as well. I go with Marcum, so I can stash him away for next year.

1.	Hank Blalock	Benver Droncos
2.	Tommy Hanson	Phatsnapper
3.	Dioner Navarro	Westy's Slug...
4.	Tim Hudson	IStillSuckCu...
5.	Wandy Rodríguez	'90 Reds
6.	Jamie Moyer	TheJimmyDixL...
7.	A.J. Pierzynski	Cheeseheads
8.	Yunel Escobar	Muddy Mush H...
9.	Gary Sheffield	O.N. Thugs
10.	Brandon Lyon	Hats for Bats
11.	Jesse Litsch	Black Sox
12.	Pedro Martínez	IamJabrone

In the 22nd, OD stashes away Hudson for the year. Yunel Escobar is a potential keeper at SS. Lyon will get some saves. And me and C-Lauff have similar ideas with old players maybe finding lightning in a bottle (Sheffield for me, Pedro for C-Lauff). At least my guy is on a team right now.

1.	Rick Porcello	IamJabrone
2.	Brad Ziegler	Black Sox
3.	Jeff Francoeur	Hats for Bats
4.	Felipe López	O.N. Thugs
5.	Melvin Mora	Muddy Mush H...
6.	Jeremy Hermida	Cheeseheads
7.	Mark Teahen	TheJimmyDixL...
8.	Dana Eveland	'90 Reds
9.	Plácido Polanco	IStillSuckCu...
10.	Mark Ellis	Westy's Slug...
11.	Brett Anderson	Phatsnapper
12.	Coco Crisp	Benver Droncos

In the 23rd, Black Sox complete the Devine/Ziegler closer tandem in Oakland. Francoeur is still really young, and can probably still churn in 80+ RBI this year, but seems cursed. We'll see if he bounces back. Mora's reliable for some pop at 3B, and Hermida is looking for a serious bounce-back year. I go with a backup at multiple positions, who may steal bases, given playing time. We'll see.

1.	Ramón Hernández	Benver Droncos
2.	Mat Gamel	Phatsnapper
3.	Édgar Rentería	Westy's Slug...
4.	Kelly Shoppach	IStillSuckCu...
5.	Eric Byrnes	'90 Reds
6.	Tim Wakefield	TheJimmyDixL...
7.	Chris Pérez	Cheeseheads
8.	Jeff Clement	Muddy Mush H...
9.	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	O.N. Thugs
10.	Hiroki Kuroda	Hats for Bats
11.	Akinori Iwamura	Black Sox
12.	Chris Snyder	IamJabrone

More guesses in the 24th round. I go with Salty, since I'm considering keeping 2 C's this season, as mentioned before. Greg gets a potential steal in Byrnes, if he's healthy. But in all likelihood, he's getting a bench guy. Or an announcer. Benver may bet getting some value in Ramon Hernandez, if he finds his bat again. I go with my 2nd catcher.

Not much really here. Of course, some of these guys are bound to surprise, so someone will look back and see that their season turned on a miracle coming out of the 22nd round. I just hope that it's me, when Gary Sheffield cranks his 30th HR in July. But really, after the 15th round or so, everyone's just guessing, and hoping to get lucky.

As far as my team goes, I like it.

SP: Lincecum, Peavy, Harden, Carpenter, Marcum (DL)
RP: K-Rod, Soria, Fuentes, Ryan, Sherrill

I'm planning on having my way with SV, and the rate stats. I'll need to dig up another starter or two, but should be able to compete with W, L, and K, as well. Pitching projections don't work nearly as well, when you get into the counting numbers, but the goal is to get 60 points (out of a possible 72) from my pitching.

IF: Martin, Delgado, Johnson, Wright, Jeter
OF: Markakis, Dunn, Choo
UTIL: Thome/Loney/Sheffield
Reserves: Felipe Lopez, Salty, Tavarez

My OBP will be good - should be around .375 this year, which should put me at the top of the league. And my SLG should be around .475, which should put me in the top 3, at least. I think that I can squeeze 225 HR out of this lineup, which will make me competitive. With this team 900 R should be a given. The RBI are a little more tenuous, with a projection of 870 RBI being reasonable. With SB, my starters should net me about 80 SB, but I have the option of getting steals w/ Tavarez and Lopez. The only question is how much other offense that will cost me. The goal is to get 52 points with the first 5 categories, and then to play SB by ear, and try to cheat my way to 5 points in SB.

Of course this is assuming no injuries. But that's what you always assume. Naturally, you have to adjust your plans, if you need replacement players. I've had a knack for doing well in free agency in the past, so I sort of ignore the potential of injuries, I guess...

Anyway, if I hit my goals in pitching and hitting, I'm looking at 117 points, which should put me in a spot to compete for the league this year. Granted, those are optimistic goals, but I have a suspicion that the UPL Keeper Era will have a distinct O.N. Thugs flavor.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

The Anatomy of a Baseball Draft, Part II

So, continuing on from before with Round 7:

1.	Chris Davis	IamJabrone
2.	Ryan Zimmerman	Black Sox
3.	Ryan Ludwick	Hats for Bats
4.	Francisco Rodríguez	O.N. Thugs
5.	Rafael Furcal	Muddy Mush H...
6.	Troy Tulowitzki	Cheeseheads
7.	Bobby Jenks	TheJimmyDixL...
8.	Joe Nathan	'90 Reds
9.	Mariano Rivera	IStillSuckCu...
10.	Chipper Jones	Westy's Slug...
11.	Ervin Santana	Phatsnapper
12.	Hunter Pence	Benver Droncos

The first three picks are interesting. And all three are too big of a question mark for me to really buy into. Chris Davis is only 23, but there's a chance that he doesn't get all of the AB's at 1B for the Rangers (at least, if you believe the Yahoo! depth chart). Zimmerman's only 25, but he's regressed since his very solid rookie season. And Ludwick had a bust-out season last year, at the age of 30, but hadn't really done anything of note before that. So, there's a very legit question as to whether or not that performance was sustainable. In any case, I'm happy that the run on closers hasn't really started, yet. Of course, I was wanting Soria. But I thought that I could get Soria in the following round. Of the top tier, you have K-Rod, Nathan, Rivera, and maybe Lidge. But only K-Rod is on the right side of 30 (27 this season). Maybe Jenks (who's 28) could be considered but, I don't know if he's as established. So, K-Rod's my play. And sure enough, the run on closers starts, and Nathan, Rivera, and Jenks are gone in the 7th. Nothing else really of note - a couple risks at SS, with Furcal and Tulo both coming off injury.

1.	Aubrey Huff	Benver Droncos
2.	Jon Lester	Phatsnapper
3.	Bobby Abreu	Westy's Slug...
4.	Brad Lidge	IStillSuckCu...
5.	Stephen Drew	'90 Reds
6.	Derrek Lee	TheJimmyDixL...
7.	Magglio Ordóñez	Cheeseheads
8.	Jermaine Dye	Muddy Mush H...
9.	Joakim Soria	O.N. Thugs
10.	José Valverde	Hats for Bats
11.	Scott Kazmir	Black Sox
12.	Jay Bruce	IamJabrone

What's funny at this point is that Jay Bruce (pre-rank 80) is available. He's the sort of player that you'd figure that someone would jump really early on in a keeper league. Instead, he drags late. So, when things get around to me with #93 overall, I have a choice. Do I punt on my idea of Soria (pre-rank 99), and go for Jay Bruce? If I go Bruce, I doubt that Soria will be available with my pick in the 9th (#100 overall). I stick with the plan, and pass on my home team's major prospect. And looking at the closers that went between my picks in the 9th and 10th (Valverde, Broxton, Marmol), I was probably right. Bruce falls toC-Lauff at #96 overall, and before that Stephen grabs Kazmir, who I was sort of hoping would be around for me in the 9th. Oh. And Westy gets screwed by the auto-draft.

1.	Jonathan Broxton	IamJabrone
2.	Joba Chamberlain	Black Sox
3.	Carlos Mármol	Hats for Bats
4.	Rich Harden	O.N. Thugs
5.	Chone Figgins	Muddy Mush H...
6.	Howie Kendrick	Cheeseheads
7.	Edinson Vólquez	TheJimmyDixL...
8.	Javier Vázquez	'90 Reds
9.	A.J. Burnett	IStillSuckCu...
10.	Torii Hunter	Westy's Slug...
11.	David Price	Phatsnapper
12.	Ryan Doumit	Benver Droncos

So at the point, the closers are pretty much milked for quality. I got the 2 that I really wanted in Soria and K-Rod. At this point, it looks like it's time to go back to starting pitching. Normally, I'd go with the Reds player, but I was a little nervous with Volquez down the stretch last season, and was wondering if the league had caught up with him. The safe pick is Roy Oswalt, who is still on the board, surprisingly, but he's 32, which puts him on the wrong side of 30 for my draft. The upside pick is David Price, who looks to be phenomenal. Instead, I go with a more established, sort of snake-bit player in Rich Harden, who is still only 27, despite being in the majors for a while now. I normally don't root for Cubbies, but I've been a Harden fan since his days in Oakland. The rest of the round is more starting pitching, followed by Westy getting screwed by the auto-draft.

Also, of note, you'll see that the next catcher drafted after the Ianetta pick is Ryan Doumit, the lats pick of the 9th round. That's why I was suggesting that the Ianetta pick was a panic pick. But on to the 10th...

1.	Robinson Canó	Benver Droncos
2.	Zack Greinke	Phatsnapper
3.	Raúl Ibañez	Westy's Slug...
4.	Roy Oswalt	IStillSuckCu...
5.	Mike Aviles	'90 Reds
6.	Carlos Zambrano	TheJimmyDixL...
7.	Carlos Peña	Cheeseheads
8.	Joey Votto	Muddy Mush H...
9.	Brian Fuentes	O.N. Thugs
10.	Ricky Nolasco	Hats for Bats
11.	Jayson Werth	Black Sox
12.	Matt Capps	IamJabrone

In any case, the 10th round starts off with Cano (a huge question mark, but a potentially huge pick in the10th), going off the board, Rupert drafting another so-so performing "upside" pitcher (5 out of 6 rounds are SP), and Westy getting screwed by the auto-draft. So, it's business as usual. Greg continues to go with risky youth, while my guy Joey Votto goes off the board right before I have a chance to get him. At this point, I think that I can get another couple closers, before I go back to concentrate on offense. Brian Fuentes is on the board. He's young (24), and will close for a winning team. Bingo. I do consider Capps, who's 26, but stick w/ Fuentes. Also entering my thought process were Nolasco and Verlander, who are both 26. But I liked the idea of going closer-closer in the 10th and 11th, and being set there.

1.	Jhonny Peralta	IamJabrone
2.	Justin Verlander	Black Sox
3.	Max Scherzer	Hats for Bats
4.	B.J. Ryan	O.N. Thugs
5.	Matt Wieters	Muddy Mush H...
6.	Matt Cain	Cheeseheads
7.	Chris Young	TheJimmyDixL...
8.	Justin Upton	'90 Reds
9.	J.J. Hardy	IStillSuckCu...
10.	Michael Young	Westy's Slug...
11.	Adam Wainwright	Phatsnapper
12.	Kerry Wood	Benver Droncos

At this point, my offense is sort of weak. I really need to find a SS and 2B at some point before I get stuck w/ the dregs. And I need to make sure that I get some pop at 1B/OF. But I've found that I have a knack for finding a little offense in free agency. So, I go with BJ Ryan in the 11th, over Kerry Wood. Uber prospect Matt Wieters comes off the board right afterwards. And Greg continues to go young w/ Justin Upton. More middle infielders go off the board, and I'm left sweating a little bit, going into the 12th round.

1.	Francisco Cordero	Benver Droncos
2.	Lastings Milledge	Phatsnapper
3.	Scott Baker	Westy's Slug...
4.	Brandon Morrow	IStillSuckCu...
5.	Ryan Dempster	'90 Reds
6.	Nelson Cruz	TheJimmyDixL...
7.	Chris Young	Cheeseheads
8.	Brett Myers	Muddy Mush H...
9.	Derek Jeter	O.N. Thugs
10.	Vernon Wells	Hats for Bats
11.	Andre Ethier	Black Sox
12.	Johnny Damon	IamJabrone

Again, the round opens up w/ Rupert overpaying for potential, and Westy getting screwed by the auto-draft. Greg gets himself a solid starter. A couple high potential OF go to CJ and Cheeseheads. And I'm left with the choice of Derek Jeter or Vernon Wells, both of whom have definitely become big time value picks (pre-ranked 89th and 84th, respectively). I figure that SS is the toughest spot to fill, so I go with Jeter at #141 overall, and am very happy about it in the 12th (as opposed to getting stuck with him in the 7th or 8th).

Correction - Cheeseheads' Chris Young is actually the tall starting pitcher, and not the black D'Backs OF.

So, after 12 rounds, I'm pretty happy. My pitching looks to be set for the most part. Lincecum, Peavy, and Harden as starters. K-Rod, Soria, Fuentes, and BJ Ryan at closer. I've got a 3B (Wright), a SS (Jeter), a C (Martin), and 2 OF (Dunn and Markakis) that I'm very happy with. That's 10 guys who are under 30 (so I was able to accomplish that goal). And both Ryan (33) and Jeter (35) have a few more years left in the tank.

Of course, I still need to get some pop at 1B and UTIL, I really need a 2B, and a couple more OF. I will need to find a couple more starters, and maybe one more closer so that I can have some flexibility in June when teams realize that they need closers. And one thing that I may consider is going w/ a 2nd C (which I'm normally against), since the expanded rosters allow people to play more games at C, if desired. That could potentially lead to a swing of 15 R, 25 RBI, and 10 HR, if people max out their games at C (which they almost never did with the shortened rosters).

But at this point, I'm looking at winning SV, and likely the rate stats (since I'm running heavy on closers), and being really competitive in W, L, and K, as well. My offense should be solid, at the very least. I'll have really good OBP, solid SLG, and I've got a couple of guys who can get 10-20 SB for me. The power is a little in question, but Markakis looks to be a stud in the coming years, so maybe I'll be alright there.

In my mind, seasons are won by a) not whiffing on your first 3 picks, and b) looking deep and finding value in the 2nd half of the draft. Next post, we'll talk about the 2nd half...

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)