2009 UPL Football Post-Season Awards

As I was searching for a template for the 2009 UPL Football Post-Season Awards posting, I realized that I must have neglected to put one up for 2008... so I suppose that I may go back and sneak in a posting when I get some motivation... but in any case, here are the awards for 2009:

	First Team	Second Team
QB:	Drew Brees - Dino	Peyton Manning - D.Rose
WR:	Andre Johnson - Jabrone	DeSean Jackson - Westy
WR:	Wes Welker - GB Slappers	Brandon Marshall - O.N. Thugs
RB:	Chris Johnson - Dino	Steven Jackson - Westy
RB:	MoJo Drew - FireZook	Ray Rice - Jabrone
TE:	Dallas Clark - GenErics	Antonio Gates - FireZook
Flex:	Adrian Peterson - Jabrone	Thomas Jones - D.Rose
W/T Flex:	Randy Moss - O.N. Thugs	Larry Fitzgerald - Shufflers
K:	David Akers - SuckFootballs	Nate Kaeding - O.N. Thugs
DEF:	New Orleans - O.N. Thugs	Phiadelphia - Shufflers
DB:	Charles Woodson - 12th Place	Darren Sharper - GenErics
DL:	Jared Allen - D.Rose	Elvis Dumerville - 12th Place
LB:	Patrick Willis - JimmyDix	Brian Cushing - O.N. Thugs
D Flex:	Jon Beason - Jabrone	David Harris - O.N. Thugs

	Honorable Mention
QB:	Aaron Rodgers - I Giocatori
WR:	Reggie Wayne - FireZook
WR:	Miles Austin - Dino
RB:	Frank Gore - Westy
RB:	Ricky Williams - O.N. Thugs
TE:	Vernon Davis - Dino
Flex:	Joseph Addai - Dino
W/T Flex:	Steve Smith (NY) - Dino
K:	Rob Bironas - Westy
DEF:	San Francisco - FireZook
DB:	Brian Dawkins - n/a
DL:	Julius Peppers - SuckFootballs
LB:	Paul Posluszny - Dino
D Flex:	David Hawthorne - I Giocatori

And of course, we do have some newer categories, the All-UPL Team Killers, as well as the All-UPL Upside Specials, which are pretty self-explanatory, once you see the lists. Basically, these are the draft/FA decisions that helped kill or make the teams that made these choices.

	Team Killers	Upside Specials
QB:	Jay Cutler - SuckFootballs	Brett Favre - SuckFootballs
WR:	Calvin Johnson - Reggie'sBush	Miles Austin - Dino
WR:	Dwayne Bowe - Reggie'sBush	Steve Smith (NYG) - Dino
RB:	Brian Westbrook - D.Rose	Jamaal Charles - FireZook
RB:	Steve Slaton - Reggie'sBush	Ricky Williams - O.N. Thugs
TE:	Chris Cooley - Westy	Vernon Davis - Dino
Flex:	Clinton Portis - Jabrone	Darren Sproles - O.N. Thugs
W/T Flex:	Antonio Bryant - D.Rose	Sidney Rice - Westy
K:	Stephen Gostkowski - Westy	Nate Kaeding - O.N. Thugs
DEF:	New York Giants - SuckFootballs	New Orleans - O.N. Thugs
DB:	Justin Miller - GB Slappers	Charles Woodson - 12th Place
DL:	Willie Williams - GB Slappers	Jared Allen - D.Rose
LB:	Mike Vrabel - GB Slappers	Patrick Willis - JimmyDix
D Flex:	Allen Rossum - FireZook	David Harris - O.N. Thugs

Note, the everything below is pending the outcome of the Bears game tonight, as Superbowl Shuffling's Matt Forte needs 65.48 points to pull off a miracle upset.

UPL MVP: Drew Brees - Dino's Revenge
UPL Offensive Player of the Year: Chris Johnson - Dino's Revenge
UPL Defensive Player of the Year: Patick Willis - JimmyDixSpecials
UPL Golden Toe Award: David Akers - SuckMyFootballs
UPL Offensive Rookie of the Year: Percy Harvin - Dino's Revenge
UPL Defensive Rookie of the Year: Brian Cushing - O.N. Thugs
UPL Comeback Player of the Year: Carson Palmer - IAmJabrone
UPL Out of Nowhere Player: Brent Celek - JimmyDixSpecials
Team of the Year: Dino's Revenge

Naturally, there were a few strange happenings along the way.

Most Lopsided Trade: Greg Olson (to Westy) for Jamaal Charles (to Dino)
Starting in week 10 (the first week after the trade), Charles' point totals: 29.20, 31.40, 24.80, 15.45, and in the 3 weeks of the playoffs: 34.35, 30.70, and 19.45. The next time you hear Westy whine about being "unlucky" remind him of this trade. And if you hear Curran brag, remind him about his gift from Westy. Not that I'm bitter or anything.

Much Ado About Nothing Trades: Wes Welker, Kellen Winslow, and Brett Favre (to GB Slappers) for Adrian Peterson, Todd Heap, and Chansi Stuckey (to SuckFootballs).
You'd figure that a trade featuring this many stars would have major championship implications. Instead, all it did was remove one team from playoff contention (SuckFootballs), while not doing enough to get the other team into the playoffs (GB Slappers). All told, it's pretty clear that OD got the shaft on this one (especially since Cutler just got worse and worse). But still. Not much of an effect here.

Whoops, I Should've Started That Guy: Jerome Harrison - IAmJabrone (Week 15).
It's not often that you see a running back reel off 286 yards on 34 carries, and score 3 TD and go for 56.10 fantasy points. And it's even less often that you see him on the bench, in favor of some dude named LeSean McCoy, who has set the record for the most capital letters in a name. And it's even less often that you see this mistake cost a team a return trip to the championship game (and probably back-to-back titles). The moral of this story is never trust someone with 4 capital letters in their name.

Laying an Egg When it Matters, and Scoring When It Doesn't: BradyToMoss - O.N. Thugs (Weeks 15 and 16).
Naturally, when it's for all the marbles in Week 15, we see BradyToMoss put up a combined 25.85 points, short of not only the 52.61 that the duo had averaged all season, but also short of the 36.61 that was projected (which would have won by a tiny margin). Then with the pressure off of, in the 3rd Place game, when they're projected for 48.18 points, BradyToMoss go nuts, and combine for 7 TD's, and put up a combined 81.73 points, and led the O.N. Thugs to the high score of the week.

Deja vu All Over Again: Superbowl Shuffling vs. the O.N. Thugs (2008 and 2009).
The O.N. Thugs are up by (number between 30 to 40) points, going into a night game, with Superbowl Shuffling's (name of black QB) needing to score some points to win. The (name of black QB) struggled early on, but was able to right the ship and squeeze out a victory for Superbowl Shuffling. Superbowl Shuffling was unable to complete the UPL Championship, when they were defeated in the finals by (eventual UPL champion). The loss to the (name of black QB)-led Superbowl Shuffling relegated the O.N. Thugs to the consolation bracket where they would have outscored (eventual UPL champion).

High-Level Performances: Dino's Revenge, O.N. Thugs, IAmJabrone, and Superbowl Shuffling.
All told, Dino's performance was one for the ages. Not only did he shatter the regular season points scored record by being the first team over 2500 points in the regular season (though, this is the first season we've used 4 IDP's), he continued the dominance in the playoffs by averaging about 213 points per game in the playoffs. Nearly as solid was the O.N. Thugs' regular season run with the 2nd highest all-time point total, but also a near-perfect 12-1 run. Their playoffs weren't terrible, but a hiccup in the semifinals has allowed the O.N. Thugs' to put a slightly different stamp on the UPL record books. Instead of being the best UPL Football team in history, this is now the best UPL team to not win a championship. The other semifinal teams were also impressive in the playoffs, posting the 4 highest totals in the 1st round of the playoffs. With the possible exception of Superbowl Shuffling in the finals, each score will be over 180, with a cumulative average of at least 202 points scored (likely 203 or 204, pending Matt Forte's performance on Monday Night Football). And as noted above, this also includes IAmJabrone's benching of Jerome Harrison's 56 fantasy points in the semifinals!

In any case, 2009 UPL Football was one for the record books. We'll see what the new decade brings.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Basketball Preview (Part III)

For the third part of the 2009-10 UPL Basketball Preview, we're going to use a slightly different format than we did in Part I and Part II, which looked at the 7 teams that were likely to contend this year. We'll take a brief look at each team's 2009-10 outlook, along with some fantasy stat projections. But we'll take a little more time looking at more strategic considerations, rather the more tactical considerations that were the focus of the first two parts of the UPL preview.


Floor Burns:
Last year's 8th place team. UPL veteran, though not a regular podium team.

2009-10 Outlook:Not likely to finish in top 4. Many question marks revolving around real-life playing time and roles on offense (Duhon/Nate Robinson, Millsap, Richard Jefferson, Capt. Jack, Marion, Odom, 'Sheed, Varejao). Kevin Martin is looking like legit scorer (though currently injured). Joakim Noah seems to have emerged as a 10 and 10 sort of guy, who chips in STL and BLK, as well. Probably should have kept Rodney Stuckey (currently about 17PTS, 6REB, and 4AST per game).

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): 3PM
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, PTS, OREB, REB, STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%, AST, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 58 points. May be able to move some 3PM to get help. Needs major help at PG.

Who is the Core?: Kevin Martin, Joakim Noah, Lamar Odom, and Mo Williams? If these guys are the ones to build around, then this is not an ideal core. However, they are the best players, and thus, the most attractive trade pieces. If you can get 2 Tremendous Upside Potential (TUP) guys in return on a trade, you probably have to make the move (particularly if it's Odom).

The Deadweight: There probably needs to be a roster purge. 'Sheed's value is nil, save for teams desperate for 3PM. Duhon's offense is atrocious, and Nate Robinson has fallen out of favor in NY. Foye and Barbosa are playing reserve minutes, and putting up reserve stats. These players have little trade value, but are taking up valuable roster space.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: May need to play the timing game, to sell some of the question marks when they're hot. Unfortunately, Capt. Jack's trade to Charlotte probably hurts his fantasy value, since GS played with a very high tempo. Also, Shawn Marion's value has just fallen through the floor since he left PHX. Millsap hasn't had the playing time with Boozer back in the Utah lineup. If these players can be moved at a reasonable price, then there shouldn't be any sentiment with these guys.

Recommended Moves: Build around Kevin Martin and Joakim Noah. Find a taker for Mo Williams and/or Lamar Odom. Someone will take a chance on 18 PTS, 4AST, and 2.5 3PM per game on good efficiency. And 9 PTS, 10REB, and 5AST is a nice balance, and could easily find a place on a team with good scoring. You should be able to get 3 TUP guys out of these two, preferably at least one PG in that mix. Try to find a taker for Duhon or 'Sheed, which actually may be possible, given their strength in AST and 3PM. The goal is to end the season with 5-6 clear keepers, and then use the draft to continue the rebuilding process, with a chance at the podium 2011-2012.


Milwaukee Bricks:
Last year's 9th place team. UPL veteran, typically a middle of the pack team.

2009-10 Outlook: Of last year's bottom 4, this team is probably the most stable, but not a ton of upside (not super likely to challenge for a crown soon). Keeper core provide a solid base in PTS and 3PM. However, there is a lack of depth everywhere else. Has already dropped one keeper, Andris Biedrins. Was probably helped in this year's draft more than any other team (Ben Gordon, Jamal Crawford, Kendrick Perkins, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks). Baron Davis and Elton Brand are HUGE question marks. Ironically, Davis signed with the Clip to play w/ Brand, only to have Brand bail and sign in Philly. I wonder if the Bricks are tempting basketball fate by playing them together.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): 3PM
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, PTS, STL,
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%, OREB, REB, AST, BLK, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 55 points. May be able to move some 3PM to get help. Needs major help at PG.

Who is the Core?: A major issue is that there are a lot of guys who are pretty good, but not great scorers, but don't really help w/ REB or AST. The best of the bunch is Eric Gordon, because he is so young. After that there needs to be some educated guesswork. Ben Gordon is only 26, and is probably a 2nd piece to build around. Problem is that these guys don't help across the board. Trevor Ariza is a nice addition for hustle stats (and has been scoring well this year), but his FG% is concerning. Baron Davis and Elton Brand (an ironic pair, given their problems with each other in real life) are huge question marks, and you have to figure out whether you can build around them.

The Deadweight: Perhaps surprisingly, there aren't a ton of guys that you look at on this roster, and just say, they don't belong. Guys that I'm not personally fond of are Jamal Crawford (16 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST on 44.5% shooting), Jason Terry (17 PTS, 3REB, 3 AST, on 42.8% shooting) and Chuck Hayes (6 PTS, 7 REB, 2 STL, and 50% FT shooting), but even they're not terrible, and could be situational plays.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: Obviously, decisions on Baron Davis and Elton Brand are crucial. See if you can't more either Crawford or Terry (or ideally, both), and get a couple TUP guys. You can't really win with those guys both playing major minutes for you. Jason Richardson is a mirage - 17 PTS, 2.5 3PM, and 6 REB isn't bad, especially for a good FG% guy. But the lack of AST, STL, and BLK strain the rest of the lineup. Okur is 30 now, and seems to be a 15 and 7 guy, not a 18 and 9 guy, but getting some 3PM from your C spot is nice. I don't know if you want to build around that. Must upgrade a big - hard to win with Landry as your PF.

Recommended Moves: Banking on Baron Davis and Elton Brand isn't the worst thing in the world. Davis' FG% is below 40%, but he's still putting up 16 and 7 and has a high A/TO. If you can get a legit big, then move Davis, but no need to panic there. Brand finally showed some signs of life with a huge game (19 and 11, w/ 6 BLK, 7 OREB, and 3STL). Hang on to Eric Gordon, and try to move Okur, JRich, along with Crawford/Terry/Hayes/Landry. If the right deal comes along for Ben Gordon, he could be had, as well. Moving into next year with a core of Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Aaron Brooks, Ben Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Elton Brand, and a couple upgraded bigs wouldn't be the worst thing int he world. This team could compete for a top-half finish next year.


Love T'Wolves:
Last year's 10th place team. UPL veteran, but no UPL podium time (though has been the #1 seed going into football playoffs).

2009-10 Outlook: This team is the most likely to rise from the bottom of the league into the top half, and of the non-O.N. Thugs teams, I would rate Love T'Wolves as being one of the 4 most likely to win a UPL championship within the next 3 years (with Sparty, elder Westy, and Chowtime). Great building blocks in Bosh, Durant, and Rondo, who anchor PTS, REB, and AST. Less reliable as a person, but very reliable in fantasy is Zach Randolph who just goes along for 20 and 10 on good efficiency every year. Currently have some stopgaps, like Andre Miller and Larry Hughes, who aren't going to be keepers down the road. If this team can figure out who the next 4 keepers are, particularly if they bring in quality guards into the fold, this will be a high upside team moving forward.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): OREB, REB
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FG%,FT%, PTS, STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): 3PM, AST, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 66 points. This number could easily go up, with a couple moves, particularly at G.

Who is the Core?: This is much more easily answered, and frankly, this core is right up there with anyone else in the league. Bosh, Durant, Z-Bo, and Rondo give you a nice start, particularly since Bosh and Durant make up for Rondo's lack of scoring. Rudy Gay is a scorer, and right on the cusp of being a legit keeper, but his AST and A/TO numbers keep him from being an obvious keeper. Thompson and Beasley have all sorts of upside, given their youth. And of course, the team's namesake, Kevin Love is still coming off injury and hasn't played this year.

The Deadweight: Josh Howard and Ronnie Brewer don't seem to be good enough to justify roster spots right now. And hanging on to injured players like Howard (and Love, and Yi), also restrict flexibility. But there aren't exactly obvious moves to be made.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: There's a bit of a wait-and-see going on w/ guys like Gay, Love, (I wanted to make sure that we put Gay, followed by Love, here, in that order), Villanueva, Beasley, and Yi. So, the moves need to wait until we get a better picture of how these guys will play out.

Recommended Moves: The best option may actually be to try to move Zach Randolph to get legit quality at G. This is especially the case if you think that Jason Thompson or Kevin Love project out to be roughly on par with Z-Bo in 2 years. Similarly, moving someone from the Villanueva, Beasley, and Yi trio to get an upside G is a winning move. Could potentially overpay for a 15 PTS, 5 AST guard, and have it be a net win, if it's a younger guard. The core of Bosh, Durant, Rondo, Thompson, Gay, Love, the best of Villanueva/Beasley/Yi, and a quality guard looks to be a nice core for the coming years.


Phatsnapper:
Last year's last place team. UPL veteran, a feast (1 UPL Baseball Title) or famine owner, with more famine than feasts.

2009-10 Outlook:Not likely to finish in top 4. Major question mark is how involved the owner will be. Nice core of Nash, Amare, Ray Allen, Jamison, and Bogut. Drafting Redd, Deng, and Maggette is helpful. TJ Ford appears to be a keeper bust, while Chandler and Kenyon Martin are sort of borderline. This team really needs the 25 and 9 version of Amare, not the current 19 and 8 incarnation. However, Nash seems to have found the fountain of youth, and it would do wonders if nash could share w/ Allen and Jamison. Deng is having a nice bounce-back year, as is Maggette. Jamison and Redd's injuries have killed the start of the season.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, 3PM, PTS, OREB, REB, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): AST, STL, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 58 points. Actual projections are discounted, due to lack of owner involvement.

Who is the Core?: Can you really build long-term around Nash, Allen, and Amare? And Allen's scoring is down to about 15 points. Redd and Jamison seem to be keepers, but are on the wrong side of 30, and have injury histories (though Jamison has been pretty healthy since his first couple years in the league). Bogut and Deng are both young, and still have a lot of upside, despite being nicked up thus far in their careers... lots of injury-related questions here.

The Deadweight: There needs to some editing of the roster. You can't really play TJ Ford or Z right now, nor do they have trade value. DeRozan and Courtney Lee have some upside, but you can't leverage that right now, since they're just not putting up the numbers.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: Need to get younger and have less exposure to injury risk. You've got another 2 years to milk out of Nash, maybe 3 out of Allen and Jamison. The problem is that the rest of the lineup isn't good enough to compete. Probably need to keep the core of Deng, Bogut, and Amare.

Recommended Moves: Get quality in return for Jamison, Ray Allen, and Michael Redd, particularly young, quality guards. Ride Nash for the next 2 years, since he'll stabilize your AST numbers, and hope that he'll play for a couple years after that. Build on Nash, Amare, Deng, and Bogut, and the guards that you trade for, with the goal of having 7 legit keepers at the end of this year, with 2 guards to put around Nash. This team probably can built to compete faster than Floor Burns or the Bricks, but isn't nearly as likely as Love T'Wolves to threaten the UPL powers-that-be.

UPL Basketball Preview (Part II)

We are continuing on with our UPL Basketball Preview. Part I took a look at last year's podium teams. Now, we're going to look at 4 teams that appear to be contenders for the UPL podium.

IAmJabrone:
Last year's 4th place team. UPL Career Triple Crown (2005 Hoops, 2008 Baseball, 2008 Football). Generally expected to finish 2nd or 3rd, and generally expects to finish 2nd or 3rd.

2009-10 Outlook: Strong keeper core, based on Yahoo! pre-rank. Anchored by legit fantasy superstar D-Wade (who mysteriously fell to 9 in the original keeper draft). Keepers may be top-heavy (variability with Horford and D-Rose, production decline and lack of shooting ability from Josh Smith). Carmelo may put up over 30 PPG in high tempo Denver system. Current roster has an extreme lack of depth (Anthony Randolph was somewhat strange 1st draft pick, Sessions is not playable, Lawson is young and a reserve, T-Mac is out)

Potential Injury Impact: High. D-Wade, Gilbert Arenas, Jermaine O'Neal, Rip Hamilton are all being counted on, and all are injury prone players. T-Mac was a lottery ticket, but is out for at least the first month.

Positional Battles: Not many, due to roster composition. May be tempted to play Anthony Randolph, as he was #1 overall pick in draft this year.

Book a UPL Title If: Everyone stays healthy. Josh Smith's regression was a fluke. Anthony Randolph is legit.

Life Becomes Easier If: Horford and D-Rose both continue to improve. T-Mac comes back healthy in December. Carmelo's early season play is for real.

Will Go Down in Flames If: D-Wade goes down. Can't get help in free agency.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): PTS, AST
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FG%, OREB, REB, BLK, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FT%, 3PM,
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 66 points. Range from 60 to 72. Likely top half team, but lack of depth will make trading a more difficult option. Will need more luck than usual to make a legit run.


Westy's Balltastics:
Last year's 5th place team, who still can't believe they didn't win. 2-time UPL Basketball Champ (2003, 2004). Typically a top 4 UPL team. Has difficulty in trade talks, often due to poor application of game theory or human psychology.

2009-10 Outlook: Strong top-6 keepers. Then team talent falls off, as evidenced by keeping Luis Scola. Lots of help in the draft, particularly with Marc Gasol and Channing Frye's early play. Will have a solid core, though there may be a lack of elite scoring. May run into issues with real-life playing time w/ Conley and AI. 3PM will hinge on Channing Frye. Will have a lot of flexibility in playing for specific stat categories, and has bigs to move. Lack of obvious quality at PG.

Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Top 2 players (Al Jefferson and KG) are coming off injury, and need to be healthy. Caron Butler and Devin Harris always seem to be nicked up, but never too major. However, team is relatively deep and has statistical flexibility save for AST.

Positional Battles: Competition between Conley/Iverson/Bibby for at least 1 starting spot. May need to fill 2 spots w/ Gasol/Scola/Frye.

Book a UPL Title If: Al Jefferson is healthy and as effective as last year. KG hasn't aged in dog years.

Life Becomes Easier If: Gasol and Frye continue to play as well as they have. Another PG emerges, either from roster, free agency, or trade.

Will Go Down in Flames If: The manager misplays roster. Injury bug hits again

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, STL
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, PTS, OREB, REB, AST, BLK, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 71 points. Range from 68 to 81. Should get back on to podium after last year's collapse. Legit contender, w/ enough roster flexibility to get extra points, but no 1st tier start to ride. Upside potential as high as anyone else in league.


Chowtime:
Last year's 6th place team. Typically a top-half UPL team. Has 2 podium finishes, both of which came at the expense of Westy on the last day of the season.

2009-10 Outlook: Top 4 keepers are ranked ridiculously high (Dirk, Granger, Gasol, Vinsanity). Then team talent falls off dramatically. Needed help in the draft, and got it when teams fell asleep at the wheel (or bet on Anthony Randolph), netting Blake Griffin. Yao, Flynn, and Curry are potential keepers, but may reduce the ability to win this year. Team should be really efficient, but may not have enough of the counting stats.

Potential Injury Impact: Huge - already happening. Yao takes spot, and reduces flexibility. Vinsanity is always nicked. Griffin has been hit with the Clipper Curse. Gasol hasn't played, yet. Already may be forced to surrender games played at C. If anything else bad happens, may not be able to recover.

Positional Battles: Ideally, between Flynn and Curry, you only play 1, but both are being forced into action. Ditto for Thaddeus Young, Battier, and Blatche.

Book a UPL Title If: Kaman keeps up the 22 and 10 pace. Yao somehow comes back this year and is good. Griffin, Curry, and Flynn are 1-2-3 in ROY voting.

Life Becomes Easier If: Injuries let up.

Will Go Down in Flames If: There isn't a real change soon - it's hard to carry 4 injured players on a 14 man roster. All 10 of the other guys have to stay healthy, and they all have to be good!

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, FT%, 3PM, A/TO
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): PTS, AST, STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): OREB, REB
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 72 points. Range from 62 to 82. Legit contender, but may not be able to get help w/ a trade. If Blake Griffin comes back and is putting up 8+ rebounds per game, that could change the calculus very quickly. Things could go south for this team, more so than others.


SuckMyDribblingBalls:
Last year's 7th place team. Typically a top 4 UPL team, but stopped actively managing team last year, due to the presence of craz Mexican in the house. Now that the divorce is final, should have more time to manage team.

2009-10 Outlook: Strong in the middle, with Duncan and Howard anchoring REB and BLK. Adding on Oden and Okafor essentially locks up BLK, with one of the two looking like attractive trade bait. Kobe will help with points, but it may not be enough, if you need to carry Kidd and Oden in the lineup (both at about 8 PPG). Unhealthy fascination with Rudy Fernandez, who probably should not have been kept - Jeff Green would have helped this team immensely.

Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Obviously, Kobe must stay healthy. Lots of depth with the bigs, but is thin at guard. Really dependent on Kidd for AST and A/TO. Grant Hill is old, Duncan is getting old, Okafor and Oden are injury prone. Things could go downhill very quickly.

Positional Battles: Ideally, either Felton or Augustin step up and become legit fantasy options. Also, Okafor or Oden (probably don't want both starting)

Book a UPL Title If: Kobe is Kobe. Dwight Howard learns a 2nd low-post move. One of the extra bigs is traded for a legit 3PM and AST option.

Life Becomes Easier If: Both Felton and Augustin emerge as legit options. Tayshaun Prince finally makes The Leap. Okafor gets along with CP3.

Will Go Down in Flames If: Injury to Kidd or Kobe. Keeps playing Rudy Fernandez too mcuh.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, OREB, REB, BLK
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): PTS, AST, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FT%, 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 72 points. Range from 65 to 79 points. Team will be very good in rebounding and blocks, but needs help scoring. Should be able to move a big and get some stats back in return.

UPL Basketball Preview (Part I)

Now that the draft has come and gone, it's time to take a look into the crystal ball, and see how each team looks. Now, the UPL has a bit of a history. If you take a look at how things have played out since the 2005 season, you can see the expected average, high, and low team totals for each stat category.

	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	OREB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T
PROJ AVG	0.467	0.774	738	12960	1233	4898	2789	835	564	1.65
PROJ MAX	0.481	0.810	955	15078	1461	5514	3427	977	678	1.97
PROJ MIN	0.456	0.738	511	10741	999.5	4044	2223	690	404	1.43

This gives you a nice way to get a quick idea of where teams' fantasy points project out to. It's a nice little reference point to have before we start looking at each team. And to further simplify this, if you normalize by 820, you get some idea of what sort of numbers per game, your players need to average.

	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	OREB	REB	AST	ST	BLK	A/T
Per Player AVG	0.467	0.774	0.9	15.8	1.5	6.0	3.4	1.0	0.7	1.65
Per Player MAX	0.481	0.81	1.2	18.4	1.8	6.7	4.2	1.2	0.8	1.97
Per Player MIN	0.456	0.738	0.6	13.1	1.2	4.9	2.7	0.8	0.5	1.43

So, you need to average at least 16 PPG, 6 REB, 3.5 AST, and chip in 1 3PM, 1 STL and 1 BLK if you want to be competitive. And you should be looking at .467 from the field, .774 from the line, and 1.65 A/T. That should get you to about 60 points (11 team league), which would have put you in 8th place last year. Based on last year's finish, the league looks like it's going to have 4 teams who are in long-term building mode, and 7 teams that have legit shots to win it now.

So, with out further ado, we'll take a look at the teams that are probably going to be fighting for the top spot. Certainly, the base assumption is that teams stay healthy. Projected stats, and the corresponding fantasy performance is based on the likely distribution of playing time, that an active owner would assign. First, we will look at WakeUpWithTheKing and the O.N. Thugs, the two returning co-champs, as well as Sparty Rules, the team that fell out of first place in the last week of the season. Part II will focus on the other 4 likely contenders, and Part III will examine the 4 teams that are likely in rebuilding mode.

O.N. Thugs:
Last year's co-champs. Four consecutive champ/co-champs. UPL GOAT. Willing to mix it up with trades. Obsessed with Deron Williams since 2002.

2009-10 Outlook: 8 Keepers are all locked in as obvious starters, with question marks at SF and UTIL2. Balanced, deep team w/out a true fantasy pantheon player. Missed draft. Has already released 3 out of 6 auto-drafted players, and picked up young players as replacements. Lots of depth at PG, which may help in future trades.

Potential Injury Impact: Relatively low. Balanced team with lots of positional flexibility. The O.N. Thugs have historically been able to use team depth to make trades when injuries arise.

Positional Battles: Mike Miller/J.R. Smith/Danilo Gallinari at SF; those players, plus Louis Williams/Brandon Jennings at UTIL2.

Book a 5-Peat If: Boozer regains fitness and scoring touch. Russell Westbrook shoots above 43% from the floor.

Life Becomes Easier If: Either J.R. Smith or Danilo Gallinari put up reasonable peripheral stats to go with their 2-3 3PM per game. Mike Miller scores 12 PPG, and becomes an everyday starter. Brandon Jennings really is a 17, 9, and 6 guy.

Will Go Down in Flames If: Portland and Utah team planes crash into each other in real life.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): PTS, OREB, REB, AST
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FG%, FT%, STL, BLK, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 75 points. Range from 70 to 80. Would be surprising if they finished worse than 3rd place.


WakeUpWithTheKing:
Last year's co-champs. Relatively new to the UPL, but has established a top-half reputation. Has LeBron.

2009-10 Outlook: Has LeBron, which helps in so many ways. Lots of question marks due to injury. Has a couple category specialists, so some fine-tuning may be needed. May need help on the boards, especially if Shaq hurts scoring too much to play. Calderon will stabilize A/TO, but not enough depth in AST. Loss of Rashard Lewis for 10 games may keep this team from really being a top 3PM team. May be able to trade BLK to make up other stats. Did I mention he has LeBron?

Potential Injury Impact: Moderate to high. LeBron aside, losing anyone on the roster wouldn't be catastrophic. However, Shaq, Ginobli, Chandler, Bynum, and Gerald Wallace all have injury histories.

Positional Battles: Lots of combinations are in play. LeBron, Calderon, Gerald Wallace, Rashard Lewis, and Andrew Bynum will always play. Probably same goes for Ginobli, O.J. Mayo and Tyrus Thomas (though they're less certain). Chandler and Shaq appear to be similar fantasy players at this point.

Book a Repeat If: Injury bug stays away. Bynum makes The Leap. We look back and decide that Shaq was deserving of being a keeper. Tyrus Thomas gets PT and becomes a 14+ PPG guy.

Life Becomes Easier If: Shaq and Chandler aren't done. Rashard Lewis comes back with vengeance. Tyreke Evans and Terrence Willams step up.

Will Go Down in Flames If: LeBron gets hurt. Mayo and Tyrus Thomas get squeezed in playing time/shots. Don't get help from Tyreke Evans and Terrence Williams.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): BLK
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, 3PM, PTS, OREB, REB, AST, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 68 points. Range from 62 to 74 points. Top-half team, but doesn't have the look of a top-3 finish.

Sparty Rules:
3rd place last year. Fell from 1st place in the last week. Traditionally a top-half UPL team. Has CP3, and took him over LeBron.

2009-10 Outlook: Has CP3, which automatically makes you competitive in AST and A/TO. Scoring will probably be a concern, as will FG%, given the relatively lower quality big men. A few questions marks about how players will fit in new roles or new surroundings (Artest, Bargnani, Turkoglu, Stuckey). Camby is coming off injury, and if injury prone.

Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Obviously, CP3 going down would be catastrophic. Virtually all of the likely big man starters (Camby, Artest, Marvin Williams, and Troy Murphy) have injury track records.

Positional Battles: Suckey and Hinrich are jockeying to be 3rd guard, though neither is desirable at UTIL. Could shift Turkoglu to guard, if Artest is a worthwhile starter. Birdman/Dalembert could take PT from Diaw/Marvin Williams if BLK are needed.

A UPL Title is in the Works If: Stuckey and Jeff Green make The Leap. Turkoglu replicates numbers in Canada, without hurting Bargnani development.

Life Becomes Easier If: Diaw establishes himself as a legit fantasy player. Artest's numbers stay reasonable.

Will Go Down in Flames If: CP3 gets hurt. Turkoglu and Bargnani cannabalize each other's numbers.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FT%, 3PM, REB, AST, A/TO
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%, OREB, PTS
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 70 points. CP3's UPL supporting cast looks better than LeBron's. Top half finish for sure. Likely top 4.

UPL Basketball 2009 Draft Recap

This year, I decided to employ a new strategy. In one of the comments of my last post, I made this bold declaration:

"I am also considering doing something different than my usual plan of going out until 4am the night before the draft, rolling out of bed right when the draft is starting, and then picking guys whose names I can pronounce."

And sure enough, I kept my promise. This year, I stayed out too late, and just slept through the draft entirely. The best part was that right around 10:30, OD gives me a call to remind me about the draft. I groan, pick up the phone, see that it's OD, and decide, "Ugh. I'll just give him a call back later." Then a little later, I wake up at 11:25, and realize that the draft was long over. I'm awesome.

So, this draft recap will be a little different, since it will be more of a historical analysis, than an ethnography. But it should still be interesting. And it's interesting - my philosophy in fantasy sports, particularly keeper leagues, is that you get the guy that you want, unless there's absolute, clear value. This is me taking Deron Williams over D-Wade, because D-Will is my guy, and there's the greater threat of catastrophic injury for D-Wade. I mean, that's probably still a homer pick. But that's my mode of thinking, which makes me surprised at some of the picks that happened in this draft.

Round 9
1	Anthony Randolph	IamJabrone
2	Rasheed Wallace	Floor burns
3	Michael Redd	Phatsnapper
4	Charlie Villanueva	Love Timberw...
5	Ben Gordon	Milwaukee Br...
6	Emeka Okafor	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Blake Griffin	chowtime
8	Mike Bibby	Westy's Ball...
9	Jeff Green	Sparty Rules
10	Tyrus Thomas	Wakeup with ...
11	Spencer Hawes	O.N. Thugs

Right off the bat, we see some interesting choices. First of all, the Jabrones go with hype, hope for the playing time, and take Anthony Randolph, who's supposed to be coming into his own this year. I'd have played it safer and either gone with Redd or Gordon, or just go with Blake Griffin right there (note we'll ignore the broken kneecap, since that hadn't happened, yet). You can't really fault this pick, since they weren't going to pick again for a while. You get the guy you want.

The next pick is just flat out mystifying. Rasheed is a 35 year old big, who will give you some OK stats, but will probably be option 3a or 3b in Boston this year. He probably only racks up about 28 minutes per game, and probably won't score 12 ppg. His rebounding numbers will go down, and his FG% will be bad since he hangs out on the perimeter and jacks 3's. But other than that, he's great. Given FloorBurns' relatively weak back-end keepers, the pick here should have been Redd or a younger player that is likely to emerge as a keeper. Certainly not Rasheed.

At this point, there are a series of teams that finished low, and need long-term help. I'm OK with Redd going #3 and Gordon going #5. I'm just confused by Charlie Villaneuva at #4. He's still young, but last season, playing for a bad Bucks team, he played 27 minutes per game. Career, he has played 26.5 minutes per game. He'll be in a rotation with a bunch of players in Detroit, and looks to be the 4th or 5th best offensive option on that team (after Gordon, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and maybe Rodney Stuckey). His hustle stats are OK. His shooting is subpar for a big. The odds of him being a keeper next year are about 40-60, against. This pick should have been a much better upside pick (Blake Griffin, Tyrus Thomas, Emeka Okafor, etc.) I'm not really a fan.

Then comes OD, with the 6th pick. And he rolls w/ his UConn guy, Okafor. If he's healthy, Okafor's looking like a 14 and 10 guy, with maybe 1.5 to 2 blocks. The problem is, he's always banged up, and he's actually regressed a bit from his best season in 06-07. If you were evaluating this pick in a bubble, you can definitely make a good case for it. But the problem is that Chowtime picks 7th. As I noted before, his team was ranked really high up top, but his last 2 keepers were marginal, at best. And he ends up with Blake Griffin. This is a very scary outcome, actually, and this would probably have not happened had I been awake, as I probably would have berated OD until he picked Griffin. Now Westy misses out on his chance to upgrade his 8th keeper from Luis Scola to Blake Griffin, who goes to Chowtime.

Westy wants to go little, and decides to try to win this year by picking up Mike Bibby, who is probably a marginal keeper next year, and passes on younger players like Jonny Flynn, Steph Curry, or Tyreke Evans (who may last another two rounds). Can't really fault the Mike Bibby selection, though I'm not particularly fond of him in that dysfunctional ATL offense... and I can't really believe that Bibby is who Westy really wants on his roster, long-term.

The next pick is the 2nd boner by OD of the draft. Somehow, he decided to keep Rudy Fernandez, and let Jeff Green go. Huge mistake. Rudy would have probably been available in the 12th or 13th round. Green is an easy choice for the 9th, and normally would have fit in better for Westy, but Westy was looking for a guard, and not the best value available. Sparty is more than happy to pick him up, since scoring appears to be an issue for him, and Green will help there. The next pick is a killer for me. The guy I was hoping would fall to me, Tyrus Thomas, gets snatched up by Stephan. Not sure about his PT in the Bulls rotation, w/ Deng coming back, but he played great down the stretch last year. He can single-handedly keep you in contention in both STL and BLK.

Which actually leaves me in a bad situation, even if I had been present. Going into the draft, had I been picking first, I would have probably picked Redd since he qualified at SF, and helps me out w/ the 3PM. My next best option would have been Blake Griffin. There was virtually no chance that they fall to me at 11. I was hoping that Tyrus Thomas and J.R. Smith would be available. I did end up getting J.R. Smith w/ my 2nd pick (the first of the 10th round), but I also got stuck w/ the auto-draft special, Spencer Hawes. I think that the computer decided that the O.N. Thugs needed the best white player available.

Now, had I been there, I would have settled on J.R. Smith, and one of the following: Tyson Chandler, Trevor Ariza, Michael Beasley, Tyreke Evans, or Allen Iverson. Possibly Yao. Given my lack of quality at SF, there's a good chance that it would have been Ariza or Beasley. But I may have also just gone w/ Chandler again, figuring that he wouldn't screw me 2 years in a row. But instead, I end up with Spencer Hawes. I'm trying to talk myself into this guy. He was 11 and 7 last year, in about 29 minutes per game. He blocks over a shot a game. Did I mention that he was white? We'll see how long this guys lasts on the O.N. Thugs.

Round 10
1	J.R. Smith	O.N. Thugs
2	Tyson Chandler	Wakeup with ...
3	Ron Artest	Sparty Rules
4	Mike Conley	Westy's Ball...
5	Brad Miller	chowtime
6	Tayshaun Prince	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Trevor Ariza	Milwaukee Br...
8	Jason Thompson	Love Timberw...
9	Luol Deng	Phatsnapper
10	Joakim Noah	Floor burns
11	Jermaine O'Neal	IamJabrone

The 10th round opens up with my auto-draft bouncing back and getting me J.R. Smith. Stephan takes another guys I had highly rated, in Tyson Chandler. Sparty picks up former and eternal Thug, Ron Artest, who's an interesting pick, since his level of variance is so high in that Laker offense. If you told me that he'll score 7 points per game this year, I'd believe you. And if you told me that he'll score 15 points per game, I'd believe you. I have no clue what he'll be doing this year in LA.

Now, the 4th pick of the round is surprising to me. Westy goes Mike Conley. He was 10 and 4 last year, in 30 minutes per game. He'll chip in a 3PM and a STL per game, but not much else. This year he has AI in the mix, as well as a bunch of gunners (Mayo, Gay, and Zach Randolph). I am shocked that Westy goes with Conley here, over Jonny Flynn (his Minnesota guy) or Tyreke Evans (who's my guess at ROY this year, now that Blake went down), especially since his next pick isn't for another 15 picks. Particularly in a keeper draft, I believe in the idea of getting the guy you want, and again, I have a hard time believing that Conley is the guy that Westy really wanted.

The rest of the round is sort of uneventful. Phatsnapper and OD may be getting value with Luol Deng and Tayshaun. The Jabrones must believe that they're set with AST, and go big w/ Jermaine O'Neal, who may or may not be totally washed up.

Round 11
1	Richard Hamilton	IamJabrone
2	Chris Duhon	Floor burns
3	Francisco Garcia	Phatsnapper
4	Michael Beasley	Love Timberw...
5	Jamal Crawford	Milwaukee Br...
6	Ryan Gomes	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Jonny Flynn	chowtime
8	Allen Iverson	Westy's Ball...
9	Rodney Stuckey	Sparty Rules
10	Tyreke Evans	Wakeup with ...
11	Mike Miller	O.N. Thugs

The 11th round starts off with the Jabrones picking up Rip Hamilton, who has been shooting more 3's the last couple years, but still isn't a real 3PM guy. I'd say that he's a borderline starter for a top flight fantasy team, but completely doesn't fit into my style of roster building (I don't like guys that only score unless they drain 3's, which is why I was actually considering not keeping Monta Ellis). I'm not fond of either the Duhon or the Garcia pick, since they don't seem to have keeper potential. Love the Beasley pick by Robby. Jamal Crawford drives me nuts, and looks to be the 6th man in ATL... I'd probably pass. Then comes the interesting pick. Jonny Flynn (who Westy is high on), goes to Chowtime. Westy gest AI, instead. I'm willing to bet that at this point, Westy regrets the Conley pick. After that, Stuckey goes to Sparty. And for the 2nd time in 2 tries, I lose my guy to Stephan. Had I been at the draft, I probably would have been angry at this point. But I end up with Mike Miller.

I'm actually OK with Mike Miller at the end of the 11th round, since it appears that he'll be starting in Washington, and when Arenas is on the bench, there's a good chance that the offense gets facilitated through Miller. I'm guessing that his scoring stays in the low teens, but he'll keep making 3PM, and will put up okay AST and REB numbers.

Round 12
1	Peja Stojakovic	O.N. Thugs
2	Al Thornton	Wakeup with ...
3	Chris Andersen	Sparty Rules
4	Marc Gasol	Westy's Ball...
5	Stephen Curry	chowtime
6	Raymond Felton	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Mario Chalmers	Milwaukee Br...
8	Ronnie Brewer	Love Timberw...
9	Courtney Lee	Phatsnapper
10	Nate Robinson	Floor burns
11	Ramon Sessions	IamJabrone

Now, what I'm not thrilled about is getting Peja in the 12th. Unless he's healthy. If he's healthy, then he's 16 points, and 3 3PM a game. But my preference would have been Steph Curry. But instead, the auto-draft has decided that since we picked just about the blackest dude possible in J.R. Smith, I needed more whiteness on my team so much that we went with the 2 best white players available. Good times.

The good news is that Stephan finally has a pick that I'm not envious of. Chowtime adds another potential keeper. I still have a suspicion that Raymond Felton will finally emerge at a legit player, so I actually like this pick. Ronnie Brewer is an interesting player. His shooting has nowhere to go but up. Teams were leaving him wide open from 18 feet, which is unheard of in the NBA. He's really good at getting STL, but has been a total liability on offense. Mario Chalmers is a nice little pick up for the Bricks, since he'll help you be competitive in 3PM and STL, and has a good A/TO, though he doesn't handle the ball enough to really accumulate points or AST. I'm curious to see how Nate Robinson progresses for the Knicks. Any point guard in a Mike D'Antoni system has the chance to put up big numbers, but he's such a gunner that even with some stat inflation, he's only putting up 4 AST per game.

Round 13
1	Tracy McGrady	IamJabrone
2	Randy Foye	Floor burns
3	Corey Maggette	Phatsnapper
4	Larry Hughes	Love Timberw...
5	Aaron Brooks	Milwaukee Br...
6	D.J. Augustin	SuckMyDribbl...
7	DeJuan Blair	chowtime
8	Mike Dunleavy	Westy's Ball...
9	Samuel Dalembert	Sparty Rules
10	Matt Barnes	Wakeup with ...
11	Shane Battier	O.N. Thugs

Tracy McGrady is a nice lottery ticket here in the 13th round by the Jabrones, especially when he comes back w/out Yao clogging up the lane for him. Maggette may be a nice value pick if he's healthy. I like Chowtime's pick again, as he'll have an option for rebounding, if he needs it. And Blair did show some nice touch in the low block. Nothing too exciting the rest of the round. I'm a little surprised that Westy didn't take Battier (who he defended quite a bit last year, when I suggested that Battier shouldn't have been on his roster). The main reason that I'm surprised is that I would have assumed that I was fated to draft Mike Dunleavy, as the auto-draft continued on it's "best white player available" strategy for me. I'm not exactly thrilled w/ Battier, but in the 13th, it could be worse. Plus, w/ T-Mac and Yao out for the time being, a few more points may fall his way. I'm much more excited about who the auto-draft sent my way in the last round.

Round 14
1	Louis Williams	O.N. Thugs
2	Brendan Haywood	Wakeup with ...
3	Kirk Hinrich	Sparty Rules
4	Darko Milicic	Westy's Ball...
5	Yao Ming	chowtime
6	Grant Hill	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Brandon Rush	Milwaukee Br...
8	Yi Jianlian	Love Timberw...
9	Zydrunas Ilgauskas	Phatsnapper
10	James Harden	Floor burns
11	Anthony Morrow	IamJabrone

I like Louis Williams, since he's got a lot of upside at one of those gunners on a bad team. He'll finally be starting in Philly, w/ Andre Miller out. And best of all, at least I didn't end up with Brendan Haywood, like Stephan did... or Darko, like Westy did... Chowtime gets the chance to add another keeper to his roster, if his team stays healthy enough so that he can carry Yao all year. I'm a bit surprised that the Bricks go with Brandon Rush, rather than getting their ASU guys, James Harden. The nickname stealer Yi has actually been putting up good numbers, so Robby may be getting a nice value here. And the last pick of the draft goes to the Jabrones: Anthony Morrow. Who the hell's Anthony Morrow? No, seriously. It took a while, but we finally got to a player that I had no idea what team they played for, where they went to college, what position they played. I realize that it's the Mr. Irrelevant pick, but still... who the hell's Anthony Morrow?

Okay. Now, I'm not going to get into the pre-season evaluations, yet, since this draft recap ran long. That post will come later this week, I think.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Basketball Keepers and Preliminary Analysis

The UPL Basketball draft is only days away. And keeper lists have been submitted for the first time in UPL history. Here's the damage. I've listed the keepers for each team, along with the Yahoo! pre-rank.

IamJabrone		Floor burns		Phatsnapper
3	Dwyane Wade	30	Kevin Martin	9	Amar'e Stoudemire
25	Joe Johnson	33	Shawn Marion	17	Steve Nash
31	Gilbert Arenas	50	Stephen Jackson	19	Antawn Jamison
34	Carmelo Anthony	63	Mo Williams	42	Ray Allen
38	Josh Smith	67	Leandro Barbosa	90	Wilson Chandler
48	David Lee	73	Paul Millsap	95	Andrew Bogut
51	Derrick Rose	78	Lamar Odom	99	T.J. Ford
60	Al Horford	93	Richard Jefferson	137	Kenyon Martin
Love Timberwolves		Milwaukee Bricks		SuckMyDribblingBalls
7	Kevin Durant	37	Elton Brand	6	Kobe Bryant
10	Chris Bosh	39	Jason Richardson	18	Tim Duncan
55	Rajon Rondo	41	Baron Davis	20	Dwight Howard
54	Rudy Gay	46	Andris Biedrins	23	Jason Kidd
66	Andre Miller	49	Mehmet Okur	71	John Salmons
77	Zach Randolph	69	Al Harrington	98	Andrei Kirilenko
84	Josh Howard	74	Eric Gordon	128	Greg Oden
87	Kevin Love	81	Jason Terry	153	Rudy Fernandez
chowtime		Westy's Balltastics		Sparty Rules
5	Dirk Nowitzki	12	Kevin Garnett	1	Chris Paul
6	Danny Granger	13	Al Jefferson	15	Chauncey Billups
8	Pau Gasol	16	Caron Butler	35	Troy Murphy
27	Vince Carter	22	Andre Iguodala	47	Marcus Camby
53	Jameer Nelson	24	Devin Harris	57	Hedo Turkoglu
65	Tony Parker	28	Paul Pierce	59	Andrea Bargnani
88	Chris Kaman	58	Nene Hilario	89	Boris Diaw
102	Thaddeus Young	92	Luis Scola	94	Marvin Williams
Wakeup with the King		O.N. Thugs
2	LeBron James	11	Brandon Roy
21	Jose Calderon	14	Deron Williams
26	Gerald Wallace	29	Brook Lopez
36	Rashard Lewis	32	David West
43	Manu Ginobili	40	LaMarcus Aldridge
56	O.J. Mayo	44	Carlos Boozer
68	Andrew Bynum	45	Monta Ellis
108	Shaquille O'Neal	70	Russell Westbrook

And just for a crude analysis, here are some averages for each team:

TEAM	AVG	TOP7	TOP6	TOP5	TOP4
IamJabrone	36.3	32.9	29.8	26.2	23.3
Floor burns	60.9	56.3	52.7	48.6	44.0
Phatsnapper	63.5	53.0	45.3	35.4	21.8
Love Timberwolves	55.0	50.4	44.8	38.4	31.5
Milwaukee Bricks	54.5	50.7	46.8	42.4	40.8
SuckMyDribblingBalls	64.6	52.0	39.3	27.6	16.8
chowtime	44.3	36.0	27.3	19.8	11.5
Westy's Balltastics	33.1	24.7	19.2	17.4	15.8
Sparty Rules	49.6	43.3	35.7	31.0	24.5
Wakeup with the King	45.0	36.0	30.7	25.6	21.3
O.N. Thugs	35.6	30.7	28.3	25.2	21.5
EXPECTED	44.5		33.5		22.5

Here, I've listed each team's average pre-rank, based on the Yahoo! rankings of their 8 keepers, their top 7, their top 6, etc. Across the bottom, I've also listed the expected values.

It's not surprising that teams that finished towards the bottom last year would have keepers with lower pre-ranks (and higher values in this table), and that teams that finished toward the top would have higher pre-ranks. Of course, this gets a little out of whack, when owners take chances on players ranked in the 100's (like OD, who actually has two Trail Blazers on his keeper list, Rudy Fernandez and Greg Oden, who are ranked128 and 153, respectively)

Immediately some things should jump out at you. First of all, there are 3 teams with quality across their top 8: Westy, IAmJabrone, and the O.N. Thugs, each of whom have average pre-ranks in the 30's for their 8 keepers. Even more interesting is that Westy has the best average across this top 8 (heck, Paul Pierce was his 6th ranked player, and he was 28th overall), but finished tied for 5th place last year. This may explain Westy's comments about how he is still shocked that he didn't win last year. Also, in retrospect, the commish failed in his duties when he neglected to squash the Caron Butler for Tayshaun Prince trade.

If you believe in getting superstars, and then filling in the holes, then Chowtime should be a scary team this year. They have three out of the top 8 ranked players (Dirk, Granger, and Gasol). On the flip side, Floor Burns and Milwaukee Bricks would be in trouble with that criteria (and many other criteria), since their top players are ranked in the 30's. Interestingly, there are two other teams who lack players in the top 10. Shockingly, they are Westy and the O.N. Thugs. In both cases, they have multiple players in the top 20, and ton of players ranked in the top 50, but none of the top 10. I suppose that this just indicates that there are a many different ways to fill out a fantasy roster.

And yet another way to look at the quality of the teams is by the players that they didn't keep. The remaining top-100 players are:

Michael Redd (52) - IAmJabrone
Charlie Villanueva (61) - IAmJabrone
Ben Gordon (62) - O.N. Thugs
Mike Bibby (64) - Chowtime
Anthony Randolph (72) - IAmJabrone
Jeff Green (75) - SuckMyDribblingBalls
Rasheed Wallace (76) - Sparty Rules
Blake Griffin (79) - n/a
Spencer Hawes (80) - Phatsnapper
Emeka Okafor (82) - Milwaukee Bricks
J.R. Smith (83) - Milwaukee Bricks
Tyrus Thomas (85) - O.N. Thugs
Ron Artest (86) - O.N. Thugs
Mike Conley (91) - Love Timberwolves
Brad Miller (96) - Sparty Rules
Trevor Ariza (97) - n/a
Jason Thompson (100) - IAmJabrone

Interestingly, we see that the Milwaukee Bricks actually let go of two players in the 80's. But this isn't a questionable move, because they were actually their 9th and 10th rated players. Also, IAmJabrone and O.N. Thugs both had difficult choices in keeping lower-rated players (#60 Al Horford over #52 Michael Redd; #70 Russell Westbrook over #62 Ben Gordon). But perhaps the most interesting non-keeper is #64 Michael Bibby, who Chowtime dropped in lieu of not only #65 Tony Parker, but also #88 Chris Kaman, as well as #102 Thaddeus Young. Of course, this may also offer insight into why Westy didn't win last year, since none of the other players on his roster made this list. Really, his roster stopped at 7 players (#92 Luis Scola was his 8th keeper), and it appears that enough ground was made up by the O.N. Thugs and the European Sellouts (aka WakeUpWithTheKing) with the 3 remaining starting positions to overtake him.

All in all, this is a superficial look at the inaugural UPL keepers. And this superficial look suggests that we'll have a three team race for the top this year between IAmJabrone, Westy, and the O.N. Thugs. IAmJabrone probably has the inside track, given his luck in the UPL Lottery. To round off his team, the Jabrones will have 3 of the first 23 picks to fill in the rest of his starting 10. On the other hand Westy's 3rd pick will be 28th, and the Thugs' 3rd pick will be 33rd. But, as we all know, there's the actual season to be played, and many moves in free agency to be made. You can also make the case for top-heavy teams (Chowtime and SuckMyDribblingBalls) who will have a lot more certainty in their superstars' stats, and will know better how to build their supporting cast. Sparty is a regular on the UPL podium, though still w/out a UPL championship ring. And we haven't even mentioned the defending co-champ WakeUpWithTheKing!

In any case, if last year is any indicator, UPL Basketball will be a shootout. There were 7 very competitive teams last year, 6 of whom finished within 4 points of the title. Naturally, I'm hoping for a less exciting result, as I'm still predicting an O.N. Thugs sort of season. But that's the most predictable part of any preseason writeup I make, isn't it?

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)