Saturday, May 24, 2008

Putting the FIrst Quarter Behind Us - Part 3

In the first 2 installments, we looked at Rounds 1-10. If Rounds 1-10 are where draft choices don't necessarily help a single team significantly, but certainly can hurt a team, Rounds 11-15 and beyond can certainly catapult a team up the rankings with a few deft selections. So, in the following analysis, we will review those rounds and make a case for the 5 best picks in the remainder of the rounds (16-22).

Round 11:
Best PIck: IStillSuckCurveBalls - OF, Jacoby Ellsbury
Though Brad Lidge was almost my selection for this round, one could make the case that Brad Lidge was going to be solid anyways. But I think few people thought that Jacoby Ellsbury would be THIS good, even after a very, very good September and October last year. With 19 steals, almost 40 runs and a rediculous OBP around .400, Jacoby Ellsbury is only a few homers short of a Carl Crawford type player with the potential for more runs and definitely a higher OBP. A lot of people would like to pry Ellsbury away from O.D., but at this point, it's going to take a pretty elite (albeit, Boston Red Sox) player to do so.

Worst Pick: Phatsnapper - SP, Rich Hill
I could have also picked Chad Cordero here, but all things being equal, a guy who pitches so bad that he's sent to the minors is probably worse than a guy who's struggling with injuries. Though Rich Hill has the arm and stuff to be a solid #2 pitcher for the rest of his career, it's the stuff between his ears that needs work. His apparent struggles with confidence are his downfall, creating a high WHIP and losses to bad teams. Until he can get this worked out in AAA, he'll be one of those lefties with great stuff without the ability to put it all together on the Major League level.

Round 12
Best Pick: Westy's Slugs - OF, Josh Hamilton
A lot has been written about Hamilton's checkered past, but It appears as though he's put all those ghosts behind him and is living up to his potential. In the race for the AL triple crown, Hamilton is near the top of every category. Right now, he's a 12th round pick playing at 2nd round output. Of course, no one expects him to win the triple crown and keep these kinds of numbers going, but it makes for a nice story, and a very nice pick-up in the 12th round.

Worst Pick: Benver Droncos - C, Kenji Johjima
Catcher is a position where there's really only 5 or so players worthy of any pick before the last few rounds and Kenji Johjima ain't one of them. He's struggled mightily this year and isn't even worth being on a roster. His .563 OPS may be the worst OPS of any starting catcher and he doesn't offer anything in any statistical category. 'Nuff said.

Round 13
Best Pick: IStillSuckCurveballs - 1B, 3B, Kevin Youkalis
Hard to pick between Tim Hudson and Youkalis this round, but I gave the nod to Youkalis. He's hitting at .951 OPS which is stellar and manufactures power and RBI's in a heavy hitting lineup. Add the fact that he has 1B and 3B eligibility and he's an even better pick. So far this year, he's hitting better than other highly touted 1B such as Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira and David Ortiz and 3B Miguel Cabrera and David Wright. I'm pretty sure he won't be ahead of most of these guys in production at the All-Star break, but so far, as Trent from Swingers would say, "He's so money".

Worst Pick: Phatsnapper - RP, Eric Gagne
As the rounds go by, it gets harder to rank who the worst pick was since a lot of these guys are picked based on their upside, but I'll go with Eric Gagne who has been an absolute disaster this year. Nothing like his days in LA, Gagne has suffered through injuries and has never looked the same. Now on the DL, Gagne may not get his spot back this year if anyone of Milwaukee's committee of closers in Mota, Torres and insert other player here do the job. Given how later picks in Soria, Gregg, Percival and Sherrill have done in their roles, this pick was not a good one in hindsight.

Round 14
Best Pick: O.N. Thugs - OF, Pat Burrell
Though the thugs were complaining of not showing enough love to his team, this pick gets the nod over Soria, who has been dynamite. Burrell started out the season one of the hottest hitters in baseball and though he's cooled off a bit, his numbers still make him a top 10 producer in the NL to date. Though I project him to finish around his career numbers, he certainly helped the Thugs make their way to 1st place much earlier in the baseball year.

Worst Pick: Muddy Mud Skipper - SP, Phillip Hughes
I can understand a pick like Hughes at this stage of the draft - stud minor league pitcher, pitching in front of a potent offense. But, Hughes has been miserable. With an ERA of 9.00, a WHIP of over 2 and no wins and to add injury to insult, a trip to the DL, it looks like Hughes may need some more time in the minors before living up to his potential.

Round 15
Best Pick: TheJimmyDixLongballs - SP, Adam Wainwright
There were not a lot of strong picks in this round, so Wainwright gets the nod. He's been consistent this year, posting 4 wins, an ERA around 3 and a decent source of K's. He'll be a solid 3rd or 4th starter on anyone's fantasy roster.

Worst Pick: Benver Droncos - RP, Tony Peña
Almost chose Bronson Arroyo for his pathetic start to the year, but Peña gets the nod for not supplying anything useful all year. Although he was a popular pick to be the closer in Arizona, he hasn't even looked very good in a set-up role. While he could take the closer's role from Lyon if the injury bug hits, Peña is nothing like what he was last year.

They say that the league is won in the later rounds and in free agency so for rounds 16-22, I decided to rank the top 5 picks from those rounds collectively. Here goes:

1. IamJabrone - C, Geovany Soto - two words, POSITION SCARCITY.
2. IamJabrone - SP, Shaun Marcum - almost a K/inning, should have even more wins.
3. O.N. Thugs - RP, B.J. Ryan - blowing away the competition.
4. IamJabrone - RP, George Sherrill - who had heard of this guy before the season?
5. TheJimmyDixLongBalls - RP, Troy Percival - didn't this guy retire already?

Let's hope that my ability to spot talent at the end of the draft can help me move back into a position to battle for 1st place. Feel free to debate.

2 comments:

Greg McConnell said...

This was a good series, C-Lauff. I enjoyed reading it. It will also be fun to re-visit these rounds at season's end. I suspect that the list will be quite different then.

clauff said...

Thanks Greg,

It was fun putting it together. I'm assuming that since no one disagreed with any of my picks that I was 32 for 32. If only I had this kind of hindsight on draft day. Anyways, like you said, it'll be great to revisit this at different times during the year, especially at the end. I would imagine that some will be the same, others will be much different. Thanks for tuning in.