In the world of fantasy baseball, nothing really begins to take shape until about the middle of May or about 1/4 through the season. Though standings still change quite a bit for most managers (unless you're Roland), one of the biggest reasons for early season success is to draft well and have some luck. Managers that get players who play much better than their draft place are usually at the top of the standings while those managers that get players who play much worse than their draft place are usually in the basement. So, in the 1st of 3 installments, I will analyze the UPL baseball draft through Round 15 and pick a best and worst pick, for that draft position. I could do all 22 rounds, but it's hard to say that a pick in rounds 16-22 was a "bad" pick.
Round 1:
Best pick: O.N. Thugs - 2B, Chase Utley
It's not even that close who the best pick was in the first round for their draft position. That goes to Chase Utley who is second in the ML, last I checked, in HR's at 2B, which is a premium position, and has a robust 1.064 OPS. He probably can't keep this pace up, but he's helped the O.N. Thugs immensely, in their early command of 1st place. He might be a consensus top 2 pick next year if he keeps up any part of this hot streak.
Worst Pick: Milwaukee Whiffers - SS, José Reyes
While I'm not expecting José to be this bad all year, it's clear that last year was a bit too much to ask for his entire career. While he'll still probably get 60SB's, he's not a HR, RBI or .OBP kind of guy. And, the debate between who is better, Hanley Ramirez or José Reyes seems to be over, for now.
Round 2:
Best Pick: Cheeseheads - 3B, Ryan Braun
At the time, I thought that Ryan Braun as the 1st pick in the 2nd round was a bit of a stretch given how this will only be his first full year of MLB action. But, Ryan is proving that last year is no fluke, hitting doubles and HR's all over the place. At 10 HR's, he'd be tied for the league lead in HR's in the AL. Would like to see him get his OBP higher and score a few more runs, but he'll be an elite 3B for years.
Worst Pick: Black Sox - SS, Troy Tulowitzki
While there are a lot of underachieving players in the 2nd round, Troy was going to win this competition the second he was taken in the 2nd round. While he had a nice year last year and a hot spring training, he quickly came back to earth, showing why he's a better pick in Round 7, 8 or 9. And now that he's on the DL and sitting on my team, I can only hope that he comes back healthy and plays like one.
Round 3:
Best PIck: Black Sox - 1B, OF, Lance Berkman
Black Sox redeemed himself with the Lance Berkman pick. The guy is probably the hottest hitter in baseball right now (along with Chipper) at the top of MLB in HR's, RBI's, Runs, OBP and Slugging. He even has 7 SB's! Probably would have been the best pick in the 1st round had he been taken there. He's one of the main reasons why the Black Sox have been climbing the ranks in the last week.
Worst Pick: Curtis Granderson - OF, Muddy Mud Skippers
Not sure anyone thought Granderson deserved to be picked in the 3rd round, even if there were 20 teams in the league. While he can hit with power and steal bases and score runs on a good hitting team on paper, he only has 5 HR's, 11 RBi's and 2 SB's at this point. He's out of his league being picked in the 3rd round.
Round 4:
Best Pick - Westy's Slugs - SP, Brandon Webb
While he's been traded to another manager in the league, Brandon Webb has clearly pitched like the best pitcher in baseball up until this point. He's got 9 wins, 0 losses and a hot hitting team giving him every bit of run support he needs. Not that he's needed it. His ERA is in the low 2's and he clearly doesn't show any interest in slowing down.
Worst Pick - Milwaukee Whiffers - 1B, Travis Hafner
I was a believer that Travis Hafner would bounce back this year and have a good year this year. It seems more likely now that he was the benefactor of some chemical substance in years past (I mean, come on, his OPS is less than .700). Though it looked like it was going to be a bad drop at the beginning of the year, there may just be better players sitting on free agency right now than Mr. Hafner.
Round 5:
Best Pick - Milwaukee Whiffers - 1B, Derrek Lee
Maybe Milwaukee Whiffers knew Hafner would have a bad year, taking 1B Derrek Lee in the next round. That pick has turned out to be a good move. Derrek Lee seems to have found his hitting again after suffering through a wrist injury that has hampered him since his magical 2005 season. While he won't repeat 2005's numbers, he'll be a top 5 1B at season's end.
Worst Pick - Black Sox - OF, Eric Byrnes
Following the trend of taking guys that had career years in the 2007 season, Black Sox went with Eric Byrnes who is having just an awful year so far. While his last 2 years suggest that he is a solid source of numbers from many hitting categories, he's not been very good in any category this year so far.
Ok, so now it's your turn to evaluate. Do you agree or disagree with this assessment? How would you rank the best and worst picks of the 2008 UPL Fantasy Baseball Draft? Are there other factors that you've seen as being more instrumental in shaping this season's standings?
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2 comments:
Yeah, if UPL Baseball were a major golf championship, then we'd have just finished the first round. Even though I'm about 30 points out of first, I really feel as though I'm only 2 strokes back. And by "stroke," I mean I only need Jabrone and Thug to suffer one catastrophic stroke each. Then my pathway to victory would look much nicer. ;-)
You know. It's interesting. I still don't think that you win the league with picks in the first couple rounds, but you have a chance to lose the league. Even having a Lance Berkman compete for a triple crown is offset by a Tulowitzki bomb. I don't know.
My top few picks have been OK, but nothing spectacular, yet. Teixiera should get things together, and Dunn's been hot of late. But really, it's getting value out of the late rounds, and working the waiver wire that's getting the job done so far.
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