Every serious fantasy baseball manager looks forward to the callup of an oft-heard about minor league player who is supposed to be the next (fill in your favorite HOF player here). The anticipation of Jay Bruce's callup to the Cincinnati Reds is one of those minor league players. I'm especially excited because I just picked him up and I'm holding onto him assuming that he gets called up sooner rather than later.
Although I did pick up Jay Bruce, I didn't know a lot about him. Sure, he's considered the top prospect in the minor league system, he's hitting the cover off the ball this year in AAA, and he's a legitimate 5-tool player. What's not to like? But, how good can he be? I can only hope he's as good as Ryan Braun was last year as a rookie. But those kinds of players only come around like once every ten to fifteen years. But, given all that Braun accomplished last year, could Jay Bruce be that kind of player? Or, could he end up being more like Alex Gordon, an uber-hyped, 2006 minor league player of the year who struggled hitting ML pitching last year. Let's look at all their minor league stats:
Ryan Braun (3 Seasons)
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB
199 767 131 240 61 6 42 144 70 151 .313 .375 .572 .947 34
Jay Bruce (4 Seasons)
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB
339 1288 223 389 104 19 57 235 122 328 .302 .361 .545 .906 40
Alex Gordon (1 Season)
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB
130 486 111 158 39 1 29 101 72 113 .325 .427 .588 1.015 22
So, clearly Jay Bruce will come in with more minor league AB under his belt than the other two, which could work toward his advantage, but taking a closer look at the numbers, it appears as though Jay Bruce certainly has good speed, gap power like Gordon and Braun, but slightly less HR power than either Gordon or Braun. Although, his career OBP and AVG is a very respectable .361 and .302, you'd like to see him be a bit more disciplined at the plate as well. So, what does that mean for Jay Bruce? He probably won't be as solid as Braun was last year, and he might struggle as much as Gordon did last year, but my prediction is that he'll fall somewhere in the middle of their rookie year production numbers. My guess? If he gets called up on June 1 and plays the rest of the year, this is what he'll hit in 350AB:
R HR RBI BA OBP SLG SB
50 16 52 .280 .340 .490 12
In comparison to what else is available on the waiver wire, I'll take my chances on Jay.
Now, if only Walt Jockety and Dusty "too cool for new school" Baker could get on the same page and trade Jr. or Dunn to open up a spot in the OF.
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The Urbana Premier League is a group of friends, and friends of friends, and eventually friends of friends of friends, who have been waging fantasy sports (baseball, football, and basketball) wars since 2001.
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Why a blog? We've had a number of interesting discussions that got lost at the end of each season (and also once other postings replace the 100 postings that Yahoo! keeps on record). And, some of our owners are in other fantasy leagues, so maybe we can use some collective group-think to help out our UPL brethren. This blog gives us a place to talk about those issues a little further.
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6 comments:
I think Jay Bruce is worth the gamble. Although, my hunch is that he'll struggle a bit and not quite meet the numbers you predicted. I think you're right about Ryan Braun being a "once every 10-15 years" guy.
Perhaps the most important stat that you didn't discuss was age. Power projects out sort of funny. That's one area where the scouts may have an advantage over the numbers. The numbers don't always show how players can mature into power, even at the major league level, much less the minor league level. A lot of that is age. And it's hard to tell until you actually watch them day in and day out.
You comparisons for Jay Bruce and Ryan Braun should also factor in the year difference. Maybe comparisons when they were both 21?
The other thing to consider (it may not apply here, though) is the specific league they played in. For example, the PCL is notorious for inflating batting stats.
But, Jay Bruce? I'm hoping that he gets the call in September, when the Reds are looking to hold off the Cubs and Cards for the NL Central crown :-)
Just went to check on the ages of Braun and Bruce, and it looks like Bruce will be about 3 years younger at the time of his call-up compared to Braun.
A more similar age comparison for Bruce would be Justin Upton from last year's call-up. In 43 games it wasn't pretty:
OBP SLG OPS
.283 .364 .647
Bruce's numbers should be better than that over 100 games (instead of 43). Although, my guess is that his numbers won't be as good as Joey Votto's this season. (C-Lauff, maybe you should hurry up and drop Bruce to pick up Votto?)
Good point about Upton. However, it's a little different - Upton looked pretty good, but the Rays shot him through the minors. They skipped him through rookie league, and put him right into A ball and promoted him to AA during his first year. They even played him in the majors, where he was a disaster. He couldn't field his position (SS at the time, but he got bounced around - 3B, then 2B, then finally OF), and didn't hit. Eventually, he got things straightened out in the minors, but some still wonder if there was any permanent damage done. We'll see how it all pans out.
There's something to be said for letting people dominate at a given level, before moving them up. That isn't always the recipe, and it isn't the only way to do it. Perhaps when you let people just be good, and promote them, you don't create the expectation of excellence.
The Reds have done a nice job of being patient and letting Jay Bruce dominate rookie ball, and progress through A, AA, to AAA ball last year. He's out there dominating AAA again, and as of now, he's got about 100 games under his belt at AAA, with an OPS of right around 1.000. He'll be a little more ready for the majors than Upton was during his first go through, though in fairness, Upton was way too young.
What's interesting is that from a stats perspective, Jay Bruce looks like Albert Pujols at the age of 20. The difference is that LaRussa fell in love w/ Pujols in spring training, and put him right into the lineup the following year. The Reds held off.
So much for the notion of needing to dominate at every level :-)
Upton looked pretty good, but the Rays shot him through the minors.
Are you talking about B.J.? I was talking about Justin. ;-)
But regardless, I hadn't looked into their histories regarding how much time they spent in A ball, AA, etc. It's a good point, though.
I do think that a player's career can be greatly affected by the team who drafts him--and the type of instruction he gets.
Whoops :-)
I wasn't thinking about Justin. I was thinking about how some folks think that BJ Upton's development was set back by playing him out of position and not letting him dominate. I'll have to look at Justin to see if there were some of the same trends!
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