Sunday, May 18, 2008

Putting the First Quarter Behind Us - Part 2

A couple of days ago, we previewed the best and worst picks of rounds 1-5 of the 2008 UPL Fantasy Baseball Draft. Today, we will look at the goats and heroes of rounds 6-10. While rounds 1-5 are typically no brainer, take the best player available kinds of rounds, players available in rounds 6-10 are a bit more around need and value picks. With this in mind, let's look at these rounds to see who fared well and who didn't:

Round 6:
Best Pick: 90's Reds - 3B, Chipper Jones
In a normal year, there would be a couple players in the running from this round, but this year it's a no-brainer. Chipper Jones, while healthy, is definitely one of the top 3B in the league, but he has been unconscious so far this year. Currently hitting over .400 and with an OPS of over 1.1, Chipper is easily one of the top 5 hitters in the game so far this year. It's a pretty safe bet that injury will interrupt his tremendous season, so Greg ride him as long as and far as he'll take you.

Worst Pick: Milwaukee Whiffers - 1B, OF, Gary Sheffield
Making his 4th appearance in this series, MW come away with another worst pick in Gary Sheffield. Sheff, who is not getting any younger, has been plagued by injury for the last couple of years and this year, while he's played through much of it, is showing that he's worse for wear. It's a shame because when healthy, Sheff can rake with the best of them. But, taking him at this point in his career is a high risk/high, but decreasing reward kind of a player. His .190 BA and lack of power (probably because of injury) leaves MW with another tough decision to make.

Round 7:
Best Pick: Black Sox - 2B, Dan Uggla
Who would have thought that Dan Uggla would give Chase Utley a slight run for his money as the second best 2nd baseman in the game so far this year. The 8th 2B off the board, Uggla has become a dependable power hitter, a good source of runs and a solid OBP guy. I'm not sure he can sustain his .AVG and .OBP over the course of an entire year, but he should continue to put up great power numbers.

Worst Pick: Westy's Slugs - SP, Roy Oswalt
While there were a lot of potential candidates for worst pick in Round 7, I went with Roy Oswalt, who looks nothing like the Cy Young candidate of 2 years ago. While he's .500 on the year, he's given up at least 3 ER in every start but one this year and he's given up 6 and 8 ER's in 2 games and has shown that he is very hittable this year with a 1.43 WHIP, demonstrating that he's lost a bit of magic. While he's still a solid source of K's, unless he gets terrific run support or finds his groove again, it could be a long year for Oswalt.

Round 8:
Best Pick: IamJabrone - RP, Billy Wagner
This was the hardest pick so far to make with so many players not really standing out from the crowd. After a closer look, this closer started to stand out of the crowd. While Billy Wagner's comments to the media this week were tough, his play has been even tougher. Having not allowed a run and holding a 19:3, K/BB rate, Wagner is one of the toughest closers in baseball. Now, if the Mets could stop playing like donkey feces, Wagner could have a greater opportunity to shine (unfortunately, on another manager's fantasy team).

Worst Pick: Phatsnapper - OF, Andruw Jones
I believe Rupert made a bold prediction about Andruw Jones on draft day, saying he would return to 2005 glory. Unfortunately for his team, Andruw Jones has been terrible, having been dropped to 8th in the order in L.A. In short, Andruw Jones has been the Eddy Curry of baseball, looking intimidating while sucking. Hard to do at the same time, but Andruw has managed to find a way. Rupert should send his .172AVG, 2 HRs, and 7RBI's packing, but either he's not paying enough attention or has too much pride to do that. Either way, don't make the mistake of picking him up if/when he does get dropped.

Round 9:
Best Pick: IStillSuckCurveBalls - SP, Diasuke Matsuzaka
Finally, Dice-K has started pitching up to his huge contract for the BoSox. Surprisingly average last year, Dice-K has confused hitters to the tune of a 7-0 record, a 2.15 ERA and respectable 1.23 WHIP. Couple that with 46K's in 54 Innings and Dice-K is playing like a pitcher deserving of a Round 5 pick. WIth a potent lineup hitting behind him, there's no reason to believe that Dice-K will slow down too much, but he certainly can't sustain these numbers the entire year, can he?

Worst Pick: Milwaukee Whiffers - OF, Delmon Young
Though still young, Delmon Young hasn't hit his weight in ML baseball gold since arriving to the big show as a former #1 pick. His patience at the plate is abysmal which compounds all his other struggles. Sure, if he had Vlad Guerrero's ability to hit baseballs off of his shoe laces, he'd probably have 10 HR's by now, but he's swinging and missing a lot these days. If he figures out how to consistently hit and finds his HR stroke, he is worthy of a roster spot on someone's team, but right, he's lethally awful. I wouldn't touch his 0 HR, 12 RBI stat line if you paid me. For those wondering, Shane Victorino was a close runner up.

Round 10:
Best Pick: 90's Reds - SP, James Shields
Though Shields is stuck in TB and I haven't seen enough of him to play to say a lot, his numbers over the last year plus are undeniable. With an ERA around 3, a low WHIP and a high K rate, Shields is carrying his 10th round weight very adequately. If TB can keep this run going, Shields could be a solid 15 game winner as the teams #2 pitcher.

Worst Pick: TIE: Benver Droncos - SP, Kelvim Escobar and IamJabrone - SP, Francisco Liriano
There were a lot of bad picks in this round, but Escobar because he probably won't play AT ALL this year and Liriano, who may NOT PLAY WELL PERIOD this year get the nod. Of course, Escobar was auto-drafted after it was determined that he probably wouldn't play this year, and Liriano was a popular sleeper pick, coming off of Tommy John surgery and a dominant 2006 season. I hope for my own sake that Liriano can figure out his control problems in the minors and can return to dominance after the all-star break, but so far he's made this pick look plain bad.

Ok, so we're through round 10 and it's starting to emerge who the draft winners and losers have been so far. What do you say? Do you agree?

5 comments:

Greg McConnell said...

Believe it or not, when I drafted Chipper this year I did so with the intention of keeping him the whole year. Yes, he is a *slightly* elevated injury risk, but every player is at risk for injury.

Last year Chipper did spend quite a bit of time hurt. However, when I got around to trading him, I did so mainly to get more steals on my team (and another closer--it was Chipper/Pedro/Kelly Johnson for Upton/Wagner). The funny thing is that after I traded Chipper away he got something like 4 steals in 3 weeks whereas Upton had zero. By season's end I think Upton netted me 3 or 4 steals over Chipper, whereas I had been hoping for at least a net gain of 10.

clauff said...

I really wish I had your intentions for Chipper. You might remember that I picked right before you in the second round and it was down to Corey Hart and Chipper for me. I had no serious steal guys on my team and I was afraid of Chipper only getting 400 or so AB's, so I went Corey Hart. Oops.

So, nice work on your part to get him. I hope for your sake that he plays close to a full season. He's been money!

And yes, 3 or 4 steals in 3 weeks is an anomoly for Chipper.

clauff said...

Oops, I meant 6th round. :)

Chairman said...

Who the hell's Corey Hart?

And for being in first place, I'm not getting much love from your Q1 evaluations.

Maybe we could do an evaluation based on how many productive players each person has gotten out of the draft? By my count, I've got 17 players that are worthy of being on a roster, with 12 who have done well. I'm guessing that most teams do roughly the same. I think that after those 12 players, it's all about working the waiver wire until you find a good balance of steady production and potential upside.

clauff said...

"And for being in first place, I'm not getting much love from your Q1 evaluations."

To be fair, I'm picking the best and worst pick of each round. So, it's quite possible that you had the second best pick of each round and that would clearly still put you in first place. Anyways, I agree with your assessment. I guess the point of my posts were to evaluate, looking at hindsight, who made the most of their pick and who made the least of their pick by round. You'll notice in my new post for rounds 11-15 that I also evaluated the top 5 picks from rounds 16-22 which I believe is where you really win the league. See if you agree.