VORPed Minds Think Alike

An interesting baseball stat is Value Over Replacement Player, or VORP. Essentially, what this stat does is give you a picture of what would happen if a team did not have this player, but instead some random guy up from the minors. Now, in the majors, the conceptual definition VORP is sort of subjective based on what each franchise has in the minors. In fantasy baseball, the notion of a replacement player is much easier to define objectively, since everyone has the same pool of replacement players. Additionally, in fantasy, you don't have to worry about defense. So the evaluation is a bit easier.

This perspective also takes into account positional scarcity, since the replacement players for different positions will give you an indication of the scarcity that's in play.

So what's the easy way to do this sort of evaluation? Just look at each position, and note the difference in performance is. For example, look at these season-to-date lines:

Player	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
Chase Utley	55	210	42.0	17.0	46.0	5.0	0.394	0.638
Orlando Hudson	45	166	24.0	4.0	26.0	2.0	0.380	0.488
Utley Proj	162	618.5	123.7	50.1	135.5	14.7	0.394	0.638
Hudson Proj	162	597.6	86.4	14.4	93.6	7.2	0.380	0.488
Utley VORP	-	-	37.3	35.7	41.9	7.5	0.014	0.150

What I'm doing is projecting out Utley and Hudson's stats to 162 games. And then, illustrating the difference over 162 games. Of course, you can tweak what numbers you use in the projected values. Maybe you take some weighted average of this year's stats and prior year's stats, or whatever. Or for younger players, you use numbers based on the career arc. I'm also assuming that Hudson is the next best available 2B. This may not bet the case, particularly if you sort stats by the most recent month. But you can use a similar method for evaluation, only projecting out stats based on the most recent month's performance. That may not be the most accurate method, but if you want to try to ride out hot streaks, it could be what you're looking for.

In any case, you can start to see some other things to do. First, if you have a working understanding of what the replacement player levels are, you will have a better picture of the value of players. In fact, looking at these stats, some of these players belong on rosters.

Player	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
C - Olivio	30	106	12	6	22	2	0.333	0.594
C Proj	162	572.4	64.8	32.4	118.8	10.8	0.333	0.594
1B/3B - Cantu	50	198	28	7	24	2	0.332	0.532
1B/3B Proj	162	641.5	90.7	22.7	77.8	6.5	0.332	0.532
SS - Crosby	53	208	27	3	26	4	0.325	0.389
SS Proj	162	635.8	82.5	9.2	79.5	12.2	0.325	0.389
OF - Bradley	48	171	30	8	31	0	0.435	0.561
OF Proj	162	577.1	101.3	27.0	104.6	0.0	0.435	0.561

So what does this get us? First of all, Milton Bradley and Miguel Olivio belong on a UPL roster. But really, you see the difference in what's available. 2B and SS have little value. 3B and 1B are a little better, and both run deeper. There are a lot of talented OF. What's misleading is C. After Olivio, you don't have much.

To get a true picture of each position, you should probably go deeper, maybe average out the top 3 replacement players. Additionally, you also have to account for the number of AB that each player will actually have. But, this is a nice little way of seeing what's available, as well as giving you a consistent metric for evaluating trades and other transactions. Also, I'm projecting stats based on 162 games. Maybe using AB is a better way of doing your projections for some players, since you could account for players who are coming off injury and have been used in pinch hitting roles or players who platoon.

So the notion of scarcity is a very real thing. This approach also helps illustrate what I was talking about in the previous post about injuries.

Player	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
SS Proj	162	635.8	82.53	9.17	79.47	12.23	0.325	0.389
21 SS Games	21	82.4	10.7	1.2	10.3	1.6	0.325	0.389
C Proj	162	572.4	64.8	32.4	118.8	10.8	0.333	0.594
14 C Games	14	49.5	5.6	2.8	10.3	0.9	0.333	0.594
Total Stats	35	131.9	16.3	3.989	20.57	2.518	0.328	0.466

I've lost out on 21 games of Rafael Furcal and 14 games of Ryan Doumit. Here's what I missed out on, with replacement players, prorated for the games missed (this is the upper bound - in actuality, you probably don't get all of those games: likely only 19 games from SS and maybe 10 games from C). See some interesting results? It looks like I missed out on about 16R, 4HR, 21 RBI, 3SB, but would have only had a .328 OBP and a .466 SLG during that time from those 2 positions. And more importantly, my roster flexibility would have been lost. Even if the OBP and SLG weren't a concern for my team (and really, this year, they're not), what this data shows is that my roster flexibility was worth about 16 R, 4 HR, 21 RBI, and 3SB, roughly what I guessed in my last post.

This also helps you evaluate trades. For a little while, Ryan Garko was being shopped around in our league. The problem was that his value wasn't any better than players who were available in free agency at the time. Additionally, since Garko was a 1B, you likely were going to play him at UTIL, so your VORP there has to be based on all positions. It's not like he was a 2B or SS whose stats weren't great, but still better than whatever was available. Those players still have some value, if you can find the right place for them. But at a position where most teams are already set? That's a tough sell.

In any case, VORP isn't a magical stat that's just better than anything else out there, but it's a nice way of looking at players, and matching up values when you need to try to compare apples to apples.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Riding Out Storms

One thing that inevitably comes up in any season is injuries. Now, if they're season-ending injuries, there's not a whole lot that you can do. But in baseball, you have a lot of visits to the 15-day DL that you have to manage. In our league, we can have 2 DL slots, effectively expanding our rosters. But what how do you manage that process?

Of course, the answer is, "it depends." It depends on what your team needs are, what your competitive landscape is, and what your options are.

First of all, I'm a firm believer that both DL slots should be filled at all times. This gives you a free lottery ticket, essentially. Worst case scenario, you just drop the player after they come off of the DL.

So, assuming that your DL slots are already full, the two obvious thoughts are to 1) make a trade, or 2) pick up someone from free agency. The trade can be hard to swing, but if you can afford to move parts around, then it could be a good move. Free agency is a bit tougher. Some positions are deeper, like OF or 1B, and you can pick up a pretty good player who will still help you stay on pace with your cumulative stats, though may hurt you a bit with the rate stats. However, some positions, like C, SS, or 2B, are tough to fill. If you have a solid player at one of those positions, the replacement that's available in free agency may not be worth picking up.

A few years ago, I had I-Rod (when he was still a very good offensive player), and he got hurt for like 3 weeks. I was doing alright with my R, HR, and RBI, so I actually went without a catcher for those 3 weeks, rather than pick up someone like Brent Mayne, who may chip in with 10 runs/RBI, and maybe a HR or two, but would hurt your OBP and SLG by a couple points during that time. But more importantly, they also take up a roster spot. Carrying an extra player makes life a little more difficult. You can't take chances on players, who may get hot.

Flash forward this year, and my C (Ryan Doumit) and my SS (Rafael Furcal) both go down.

So, my options at C were virtually nonexistent. Maybe Miguel Olivio (who's got some pop, it appears) - I could take the hit in OBP, and fight for some RBI and R. But the downside, was that I wouldn't be able to take chances on guys like prospects like Max Scherzer or other pitchers that have gotten hot, like Andrew Miller, both of whom are currently on my roster. So, I've gone w/out a C since Doumit got hurt. He'll be back soon, so I'll get some production back.

In retrospect, I think that I screwed up my move at SS. My original move was to just pick up Jeff Keppinger, and hope that he kept hitting. Then he broke his knee. I thought about picking up Jerry Hairston, and hope that he'd get SB for me. But he started off bad, and the Reds were playing awful then, so I passed. Then I thought that maybe Felipe Lopez would be able to get me some SB. But that didn't work out, and I got bored of him. So, since then, I've gone w/out a SS. If I would've stuck w/ the Hairston idea, I would have 6 more SB right now. Or, if I would have picked up Ramon Vazquez, I would have gotten some solid offense.

Essentially, I've given up on about 15 R and 15 RBI, which cost me 3 points in the standings, and either those 6 SB w/ Hairston, or a few more R and RBI w/ Vasquez. But I've been able to make up for it by figuring out my pitching staff, and setting myself up for a better run at the championship, to the point where I literally have more points from my pitching than I do from my hitting (which I still plan on getting about 62 points from this year). Additionally, the extra flexibility let me go after Juan Pierre, who has become a regular starter (even before Andruw Jones hurt himself), seems to be hitting reasonably well, in additional stealing bases.

So, my assumption was that the extra roster slot was worth temporarily giving up a few points in the standings, that I would get back once my guys came back. And in the meantime, I'm still maintaining a healthy working margin on the rest of the league, so it seems that my plan has worked out this time. Now, I just need my guys to get back before I continue to lose ground :-)

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Putting the FIrst Quarter Behind Us - Part 3

In the first 2 installments, we looked at Rounds 1-10. If Rounds 1-10 are where draft choices don't necessarily help a single team significantly, but certainly can hurt a team, Rounds 11-15 and beyond can certainly catapult a team up the rankings with a few deft selections. So, in the following analysis, we will review those rounds and make a case for the 5 best picks in the remainder of the rounds (16-22).

Round 11:
Best PIck: IStillSuckCurveBalls - OF, Jacoby Ellsbury
Though Brad Lidge was almost my selection for this round, one could make the case that Brad Lidge was going to be solid anyways. But I think few people thought that Jacoby Ellsbury would be THIS good, even after a very, very good September and October last year. With 19 steals, almost 40 runs and a rediculous OBP around .400, Jacoby Ellsbury is only a few homers short of a Carl Crawford type player with the potential for more runs and definitely a higher OBP. A lot of people would like to pry Ellsbury away from O.D., but at this point, it's going to take a pretty elite (albeit, Boston Red Sox) player to do so.

Worst Pick: Phatsnapper - SP, Rich Hill
I could have also picked Chad Cordero here, but all things being equal, a guy who pitches so bad that he's sent to the minors is probably worse than a guy who's struggling with injuries. Though Rich Hill has the arm and stuff to be a solid #2 pitcher for the rest of his career, it's the stuff between his ears that needs work. His apparent struggles with confidence are his downfall, creating a high WHIP and losses to bad teams. Until he can get this worked out in AAA, he'll be one of those lefties with great stuff without the ability to put it all together on the Major League level.

Round 12
Best Pick: Westy's Slugs - OF, Josh Hamilton
A lot has been written about Hamilton's checkered past, but It appears as though he's put all those ghosts behind him and is living up to his potential. In the race for the AL triple crown, Hamilton is near the top of every category. Right now, he's a 12th round pick playing at 2nd round output. Of course, no one expects him to win the triple crown and keep these kinds of numbers going, but it makes for a nice story, and a very nice pick-up in the 12th round.

Worst Pick: Benver Droncos - C, Kenji Johjima
Catcher is a position where there's really only 5 or so players worthy of any pick before the last few rounds and Kenji Johjima ain't one of them. He's struggled mightily this year and isn't even worth being on a roster. His .563 OPS may be the worst OPS of any starting catcher and he doesn't offer anything in any statistical category. 'Nuff said.

Round 13
Best Pick: IStillSuckCurveballs - 1B, 3B, Kevin Youkalis
Hard to pick between Tim Hudson and Youkalis this round, but I gave the nod to Youkalis. He's hitting at .951 OPS which is stellar and manufactures power and RBI's in a heavy hitting lineup. Add the fact that he has 1B and 3B eligibility and he's an even better pick. So far this year, he's hitting better than other highly touted 1B such as Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira and David Ortiz and 3B Miguel Cabrera and David Wright. I'm pretty sure he won't be ahead of most of these guys in production at the All-Star break, but so far, as Trent from Swingers would say, "He's so money".

Worst Pick: Phatsnapper - RP, Eric Gagne
As the rounds go by, it gets harder to rank who the worst pick was since a lot of these guys are picked based on their upside, but I'll go with Eric Gagne who has been an absolute disaster this year. Nothing like his days in LA, Gagne has suffered through injuries and has never looked the same. Now on the DL, Gagne may not get his spot back this year if anyone of Milwaukee's committee of closers in Mota, Torres and insert other player here do the job. Given how later picks in Soria, Gregg, Percival and Sherrill have done in their roles, this pick was not a good one in hindsight.

Round 14
Best Pick: O.N. Thugs - OF, Pat Burrell
Though the thugs were complaining of not showing enough love to his team, this pick gets the nod over Soria, who has been dynamite. Burrell started out the season one of the hottest hitters in baseball and though he's cooled off a bit, his numbers still make him a top 10 producer in the NL to date. Though I project him to finish around his career numbers, he certainly helped the Thugs make their way to 1st place much earlier in the baseball year.

Worst Pick: Muddy Mud Skipper - SP, Phillip Hughes
I can understand a pick like Hughes at this stage of the draft - stud minor league pitcher, pitching in front of a potent offense. But, Hughes has been miserable. With an ERA of 9.00, a WHIP of over 2 and no wins and to add injury to insult, a trip to the DL, it looks like Hughes may need some more time in the minors before living up to his potential.

Round 15
Best Pick: TheJimmyDixLongballs - SP, Adam Wainwright
There were not a lot of strong picks in this round, so Wainwright gets the nod. He's been consistent this year, posting 4 wins, an ERA around 3 and a decent source of K's. He'll be a solid 3rd or 4th starter on anyone's fantasy roster.

Worst Pick: Benver Droncos - RP, Tony Peña
Almost chose Bronson Arroyo for his pathetic start to the year, but Peña gets the nod for not supplying anything useful all year. Although he was a popular pick to be the closer in Arizona, he hasn't even looked very good in a set-up role. While he could take the closer's role from Lyon if the injury bug hits, Peña is nothing like what he was last year.

They say that the league is won in the later rounds and in free agency so for rounds 16-22, I decided to rank the top 5 picks from those rounds collectively. Here goes:

1. IamJabrone - C, Geovany Soto - two words, POSITION SCARCITY.
2. IamJabrone - SP, Shaun Marcum - almost a K/inning, should have even more wins.
3. O.N. Thugs - RP, B.J. Ryan - blowing away the competition.
4. IamJabrone - RP, George Sherrill - who had heard of this guy before the season?
5. TheJimmyDixLongBalls - RP, Troy Percival - didn't this guy retire already?

Let's hope that my ability to spot talent at the end of the draft can help me move back into a position to battle for 1st place. Feel free to debate.

Time

So, my infatuation with the 1995 Topps All-Star team has gone down a slight notch with the retirement of Mike Piazza.

His story is interesting, of course. Late round draft pick (62nd round), made as a favor to Tommy Lasorda, who was Piazza family friend.

If you look at his stats, you'll see an example of this career arc that I keep talking about. He starts off gangbusters, winning ROY, and taking the league by storm. He was a bit old as a rookie, but just at the edge (historically, HOF type players make an impact in the majors by the time they're 24 - anything older and it becomes tough to accumulate the counting stats you need). These numbers are cut and pasted from baseball-reference.com, which is awesome. The column on the right is OPS+, which is a factor of a player's OPS, compared to the league average. So, in 1993, Piazza's OPS+ of 152 essentially means that his OPS was 52% above the league average. An OPS+ of 100 would mean that you were at the league average, and an OPS+ of 94 would mean that you were 94% of the league average.

Yr Ag  G  AB  R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG *OPS+ 
93 24 149 547 81  174 24  2  35 112  3  4  46  86  .318 .370  .561  152
94 25 107 405 64  129 18  0  24  92  1  3  33  65  .319 .370  .541  140
95 26 112 434 82  150 17  0  32  93  1  0  39  80  .346 .400  .606  172
96 27 148 547 87  184 16  0  36 105  0  3  81  93  .336 .422  .563  166
97 28 152 556 104 201 32  1  40 124  5  1  69  77  .362 .431  .638  185
98 29 151 561 88  184 38  1  32 111  1  0  58  80  .328 .390  .570  152
99 30 141 534 100 162 25  0  40 124  2  2  51  70  .303 .361  .575  134
00 31 136 482 90  156 26  0  38 113  4  2  58  69  .324 .398  .614  155
01 32 141 503 81  151 29  0  36  94  0  2  67  87  .300 .384  .573  147
02 33 135 478 69  134 23  2  33  98  0  3  57  82  .280 .359  .544  137
03 34 68  234 37  67  13  0  11  34  0  0  35  40  .286 .377  .483  126
04 35 129 455 47  121 21  0  20  54  0  0  68  78  .266 .362  .444  108
05 36 113 398 41  100 23  0  19  62  0  0  41  67  .251 .326  .452  104
06 37 126 399 39  113 19  1  22  68  0  0  34  66  .283 .342  .501  122
07 38 83  309 33  85  17  1   8  44  0  0  18  61  .275 .313  .414   96

You'll note a few things. Piazza kept improving until he was 28, culminating in 2 excellent seasons in 1997 and 1998, where he was 2nd in the MVP voting both years. Then, starting at age 29, you have a few plateau years, until the age of 32. Then starting in 2002, at the age of 33, you see the decline start and be accelerated by injuries in 2003. You have to give Piazza credit. He was able to keep from falling off the cliff, so long as he stayed healthy. Even in 2004-06, he still managed to average over 20 HR a season. Last year, the cliff finally came at the age of 38, but really, by the time he hit 34, he was no longer, "Mike Piazza, HOF-level player," but rather "Mike Piazza, Still better with the bat than more catchers."

Also, you see the power stay relatively strong, though the bat speed was deteriorating. However, it's interesting that the OBP stayed high, as the number of walks stayed high. But, even that fell off starting in 2005. The stats here are really indicative of this whole career arc concept that I keep talking about.

So who's next? Maybe Brian McCann. He's not nearly the pure hitter that Piazza was. Maybe Victor Martinez (who is darned good). Probably no one, for a while.

In any case, one more familiar face from my childhood is off to greener pastures.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Putting the First Quarter Behind Us - Part 2

A couple of days ago, we previewed the best and worst picks of rounds 1-5 of the 2008 UPL Fantasy Baseball Draft. Today, we will look at the goats and heroes of rounds 6-10. While rounds 1-5 are typically no brainer, take the best player available kinds of rounds, players available in rounds 6-10 are a bit more around need and value picks. With this in mind, let's look at these rounds to see who fared well and who didn't:

Round 6:
Best Pick: 90's Reds - 3B, Chipper Jones
In a normal year, there would be a couple players in the running from this round, but this year it's a no-brainer. Chipper Jones, while healthy, is definitely one of the top 3B in the league, but he has been unconscious so far this year. Currently hitting over .400 and with an OPS of over 1.1, Chipper is easily one of the top 5 hitters in the game so far this year. It's a pretty safe bet that injury will interrupt his tremendous season, so Greg ride him as long as and far as he'll take you.

Worst Pick: Milwaukee Whiffers - 1B, OF, Gary Sheffield
Making his 4th appearance in this series, MW come away with another worst pick in Gary Sheffield. Sheff, who is not getting any younger, has been plagued by injury for the last couple of years and this year, while he's played through much of it, is showing that he's worse for wear. It's a shame because when healthy, Sheff can rake with the best of them. But, taking him at this point in his career is a high risk/high, but decreasing reward kind of a player. His .190 BA and lack of power (probably because of injury) leaves MW with another tough decision to make.

Round 7:
Best Pick: Black Sox - 2B, Dan Uggla
Who would have thought that Dan Uggla would give Chase Utley a slight run for his money as the second best 2nd baseman in the game so far this year. The 8th 2B off the board, Uggla has become a dependable power hitter, a good source of runs and a solid OBP guy. I'm not sure he can sustain his .AVG and .OBP over the course of an entire year, but he should continue to put up great power numbers.

Worst Pick: Westy's Slugs - SP, Roy Oswalt
While there were a lot of potential candidates for worst pick in Round 7, I went with Roy Oswalt, who looks nothing like the Cy Young candidate of 2 years ago. While he's .500 on the year, he's given up at least 3 ER in every start but one this year and he's given up 6 and 8 ER's in 2 games and has shown that he is very hittable this year with a 1.43 WHIP, demonstrating that he's lost a bit of magic. While he's still a solid source of K's, unless he gets terrific run support or finds his groove again, it could be a long year for Oswalt.

Round 8:
Best Pick: IamJabrone - RP, Billy Wagner
This was the hardest pick so far to make with so many players not really standing out from the crowd. After a closer look, this closer started to stand out of the crowd. While Billy Wagner's comments to the media this week were tough, his play has been even tougher. Having not allowed a run and holding a 19:3, K/BB rate, Wagner is one of the toughest closers in baseball. Now, if the Mets could stop playing like donkey feces, Wagner could have a greater opportunity to shine (unfortunately, on another manager's fantasy team).

Worst Pick: Phatsnapper - OF, Andruw Jones
I believe Rupert made a bold prediction about Andruw Jones on draft day, saying he would return to 2005 glory. Unfortunately for his team, Andruw Jones has been terrible, having been dropped to 8th in the order in L.A. In short, Andruw Jones has been the Eddy Curry of baseball, looking intimidating while sucking. Hard to do at the same time, but Andruw has managed to find a way. Rupert should send his .172AVG, 2 HRs, and 7RBI's packing, but either he's not paying enough attention or has too much pride to do that. Either way, don't make the mistake of picking him up if/when he does get dropped.

Round 9:
Best Pick: IStillSuckCurveBalls - SP, Diasuke Matsuzaka
Finally, Dice-K has started pitching up to his huge contract for the BoSox. Surprisingly average last year, Dice-K has confused hitters to the tune of a 7-0 record, a 2.15 ERA and respectable 1.23 WHIP. Couple that with 46K's in 54 Innings and Dice-K is playing like a pitcher deserving of a Round 5 pick. WIth a potent lineup hitting behind him, there's no reason to believe that Dice-K will slow down too much, but he certainly can't sustain these numbers the entire year, can he?

Worst Pick: Milwaukee Whiffers - OF, Delmon Young
Though still young, Delmon Young hasn't hit his weight in ML baseball gold since arriving to the big show as a former #1 pick. His patience at the plate is abysmal which compounds all his other struggles. Sure, if he had Vlad Guerrero's ability to hit baseballs off of his shoe laces, he'd probably have 10 HR's by now, but he's swinging and missing a lot these days. If he figures out how to consistently hit and finds his HR stroke, he is worthy of a roster spot on someone's team, but right, he's lethally awful. I wouldn't touch his 0 HR, 12 RBI stat line if you paid me. For those wondering, Shane Victorino was a close runner up.

Round 10:
Best Pick: 90's Reds - SP, James Shields
Though Shields is stuck in TB and I haven't seen enough of him to play to say a lot, his numbers over the last year plus are undeniable. With an ERA around 3, a low WHIP and a high K rate, Shields is carrying his 10th round weight very adequately. If TB can keep this run going, Shields could be a solid 15 game winner as the teams #2 pitcher.

Worst Pick: TIE: Benver Droncos - SP, Kelvim Escobar and IamJabrone - SP, Francisco Liriano
There were a lot of bad picks in this round, but Escobar because he probably won't play AT ALL this year and Liriano, who may NOT PLAY WELL PERIOD this year get the nod. Of course, Escobar was auto-drafted after it was determined that he probably wouldn't play this year, and Liriano was a popular sleeper pick, coming off of Tommy John surgery and a dominant 2006 season. I hope for my own sake that Liriano can figure out his control problems in the minors and can return to dominance after the all-star break, but so far he's made this pick look plain bad.

Ok, so we're through round 10 and it's starting to emerge who the draft winners and losers have been so far. What do you say? Do you agree?

Braun vs. Bruce

Every serious fantasy baseball manager looks forward to the callup of an oft-heard about minor league player who is supposed to be the next (fill in your favorite HOF player here). The anticipation of Jay Bruce's callup to the Cincinnati Reds is one of those minor league players. I'm especially excited because I just picked him up and I'm holding onto him assuming that he gets called up sooner rather than later.

Although I did pick up Jay Bruce, I didn't know a lot about him. Sure, he's considered the top prospect in the minor league system, he's hitting the cover off the ball this year in AAA, and he's a legitimate 5-tool player. What's not to like? But, how good can he be? I can only hope he's as good as Ryan Braun was last year as a rookie. But those kinds of players only come around like once every ten to fifteen years. But, given all that Braun accomplished last year, could Jay Bruce be that kind of player? Or, could he end up being more like Alex Gordon, an uber-hyped, 2006 minor league player of the year who struggled hitting ML pitching last year. Let's look at all their minor league stats:

Ryan Braun (3 Seasons)
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB
199 767 131 240 61 6 42 144 70 151 .313 .375 .572 .947 34

Jay Bruce (4 Seasons)
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB
339 1288 223 389 104 19 57 235 122 328 .302 .361 .545 .906 40

Alex Gordon (1 Season)
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB
130 486 111 158 39 1 29 101 72 113 .325 .427 .588 1.015 22

So, clearly Jay Bruce will come in with more minor league AB under his belt than the other two, which could work toward his advantage, but taking a closer look at the numbers, it appears as though Jay Bruce certainly has good speed, gap power like Gordon and Braun, but slightly less HR power than either Gordon or Braun. Although, his career OBP and AVG is a very respectable .361 and .302, you'd like to see him be a bit more disciplined at the plate as well. So, what does that mean for Jay Bruce? He probably won't be as solid as Braun was last year, and he might struggle as much as Gordon did last year, but my prediction is that he'll fall somewhere in the middle of their rookie year production numbers. My guess? If he gets called up on June 1 and plays the rest of the year, this is what he'll hit in 350AB:

R HR RBI BA OBP SLG SB
50 16 52 .280 .340 .490 12

In comparison to what else is available on the waiver wire, I'll take my chances on Jay.

Now, if only Walt Jockety and Dusty "too cool for new school" Baker could get on the same page and trade Jr. or Dunn to open up a spot in the OF.

Putting the First Quarter Behind Us - Part 1

In the world of fantasy baseball, nothing really begins to take shape until about the middle of May or about 1/4 through the season. Though standings still change quite a bit for most managers (unless you're Roland), one of the biggest reasons for early season success is to draft well and have some luck. Managers that get players who play much better than their draft place are usually at the top of the standings while those managers that get players who play much worse than their draft place are usually in the basement. So, in the 1st of 3 installments, I will analyze the UPL baseball draft through Round 15 and pick a best and worst pick, for that draft position. I could do all 22 rounds, but it's hard to say that a pick in rounds 16-22 was a "bad" pick.

Round 1:
Best pick: O.N. Thugs - 2B, Chase Utley
It's not even that close who the best pick was in the first round for their draft position. That goes to Chase Utley who is second in the ML, last I checked, in HR's at 2B, which is a premium position, and has a robust 1.064 OPS. He probably can't keep this pace up, but he's helped the O.N. Thugs immensely, in their early command of 1st place. He might be a consensus top 2 pick next year if he keeps up any part of this hot streak.

Worst Pick: Milwaukee Whiffers - SS, José Reyes
While I'm not expecting José to be this bad all year, it's clear that last year was a bit too much to ask for his entire career. While he'll still probably get 60SB's, he's not a HR, RBI or .OBP kind of guy. And, the debate between who is better, Hanley Ramirez or José Reyes seems to be over, for now.

Round 2:
Best Pick: Cheeseheads - 3B, Ryan Braun
At the time, I thought that Ryan Braun as the 1st pick in the 2nd round was a bit of a stretch given how this will only be his first full year of MLB action. But, Ryan is proving that last year is no fluke, hitting doubles and HR's all over the place. At 10 HR's, he'd be tied for the league lead in HR's in the AL. Would like to see him get his OBP higher and score a few more runs, but he'll be an elite 3B for years.

Worst Pick: Black Sox - SS, Troy Tulowitzki
While there are a lot of underachieving players in the 2nd round, Troy was going to win this competition the second he was taken in the 2nd round. While he had a nice year last year and a hot spring training, he quickly came back to earth, showing why he's a better pick in Round 7, 8 or 9. And now that he's on the DL and sitting on my team, I can only hope that he comes back healthy and plays like one.

Round 3:
Best PIck: Black Sox - 1B, OF, Lance Berkman
Black Sox redeemed himself with the Lance Berkman pick. The guy is probably the hottest hitter in baseball right now (along with Chipper) at the top of MLB in HR's, RBI's, Runs, OBP and Slugging. He even has 7 SB's! Probably would have been the best pick in the 1st round had he been taken there. He's one of the main reasons why the Black Sox have been climbing the ranks in the last week.

Worst Pick: Curtis Granderson - OF, Muddy Mud Skippers
Not sure anyone thought Granderson deserved to be picked in the 3rd round, even if there were 20 teams in the league. While he can hit with power and steal bases and score runs on a good hitting team on paper, he only has 5 HR's, 11 RBi's and 2 SB's at this point. He's out of his league being picked in the 3rd round.

Round 4:
Best Pick - Westy's Slugs - SP, Brandon Webb
While he's been traded to another manager in the league, Brandon Webb has clearly pitched like the best pitcher in baseball up until this point. He's got 9 wins, 0 losses and a hot hitting team giving him every bit of run support he needs. Not that he's needed it. His ERA is in the low 2's and he clearly doesn't show any interest in slowing down.

Worst Pick - Milwaukee Whiffers - 1B, Travis Hafner
I was a believer that Travis Hafner would bounce back this year and have a good year this year. It seems more likely now that he was the benefactor of some chemical substance in years past (I mean, come on, his OPS is less than .700). Though it looked like it was going to be a bad drop at the beginning of the year, there may just be better players sitting on free agency right now than Mr. Hafner.

Round 5:
Best Pick - Milwaukee Whiffers - 1B, Derrek Lee
Maybe Milwaukee Whiffers knew Hafner would have a bad year, taking 1B Derrek Lee in the next round. That pick has turned out to be a good move. Derrek Lee seems to have found his hitting again after suffering through a wrist injury that has hampered him since his magical 2005 season. While he won't repeat 2005's numbers, he'll be a top 5 1B at season's end.

Worst Pick - Black Sox - OF, Eric Byrnes
Following the trend of taking guys that had career years in the 2007 season, Black Sox went with Eric Byrnes who is having just an awful year so far. While his last 2 years suggest that he is a solid source of numbers from many hitting categories, he's not been very good in any category this year so far.

Ok, so now it's your turn to evaluate. Do you agree or disagree with this assessment? How would you rank the best and worst picks of the 2008 UPL Fantasy Baseball Draft? Are there other factors that you've seen as being more instrumental in shaping this season's standings?

Where Baseball Players Go to Die

Piggybacking on friend and fellow Fantasy Baseball blogger, Greg and his latest post about tirades, I have a tirade, although considerably less profanity-laced than Lee Elia's, of my own I need to get off my chest.

Growing up as a Cubs fan, I undoubtedly tortured myself with all sorts of theories that tried to explain the Cubs' decades of futility. One of my favorites was that once a Cubs player was traded away from the team, he would have a career resurgence. Conversely, players that were already stars would all of a sudden hit a slump once they donned Cubbie Blue. As torturous as this exercise was, it gave me a strange sense of calm, as if I was supposed to feel better about their baseball impotence because I had a theory to explain it. I guess you have to have a sense of calm to endure the success of Dennis "The Eck" Eckersley with the A's after a few sub-par years with the Cubs, for example. I take this so far that I fully expect one-time phenom (and pitcher who is forever linked to the Steve Bartman episode in the 2003 playoffs) Mark Prior, currently trying to make a rehab comeback with the Padres, to miraculously reverse his proneness to injury, and be a Cy Young candidate just because he's not with the Cubs anymore.

Unfortunately, this theory doesn't just apply to the Cubs. I have, and others share, this same theory for my own fantasy teams (baseball, in particular) as well. One big example from this year's team is David Wright. 1st round stud and 5-stat darling, Mr. Wright Stuff, upon hearing that he was going to be traded to my team, "IamJabrone", from "Muddy Mud Skippers" immediately decided to hit a slump. Don't believe me? Check out these stats:

David Wright as a member of MMS: .311AVG, 13 Runs, 4 HR's, 19 RBI's, 3 SB's, .441 OBP and .635 SLG in 20 games.

David Wright as a member of IAJ: .220AVG, 7 Runs, 2 HR's, 12 RBI's, 1 SB, .324 OBP and .356 SLG in 15 games.

Too few data points to make conclusions you say? That might be true, but consider this: David Wright was hitting the casing of the ball in the early part of the season, but then hit a major slump which many would say he is still in. When did this slump begin? That's right, April 21st, the exact day that the trade was accepted by both managers.

Let's look at Ryan Zimmerman, the 3B who was sent in return (along with Billy Wagner)

Ryan Zimmerman as a member of IAJ: .215AVG, 8 Runs, 2 HR's, 9 RBI's, 0 SB, .240 OBP, .333 SLG in 20 games.

Ryan Zimmerman as a member of MMS: .279AVG, 9 Runs, 3HR's, 9 RBI's, 0 SB, .323 OBP, .459 SLG in 15 games.

If you don't believe it now, consider last year's trade where I should have received a slightly better end of a deal with O.D. where I receive Brett Myers (who was on the DL at the time) and Rafael Furcal for Todd Jones and someone else who I can't remember. What happened? Brett Myers moves to a closers role and proceeds to finish the season with an ERA around 5.00. And Furcal? He finishes with the worst season of his career by far. Note: Roland drafted Furcal this year who, in case you've been in a coma for the last 6 weeks, is one of the hottest players in baseball this year. There are similar stories in basketball and many others in baseball that I've managed to purge from my memory so that I can just wake up in the morning without feeling ill. You've been warned: If you're a fan of a baseball team and want to see them win a World Series, make sure that none of their key players play for a C-Lauff managed team.

However, there's another side to this story. Whereas players go to decompose and rot as members of my roster, players decide to step things up when hearing that they will become members of Roland's team. Want examples? I have plenty.

This year, Roland trades raking Aramis Ramirez to Black Sox and the day that Aramis Ramirez arrives on the Black Sox roster, he gets in the wrist and misses 3 or 4 games in a row. Pat Burrell, top 10 fantasy player for Roland at the time of the proposed trade, learns that he will be joining O.D's squad and immediately hits a 1 for 17 slump. Remember the trade that sent Paul Konerko and Brett Myers to C.J. in return for a supposedly injury-risk Albert Pujols? Konerko has been terrible and Myers has been marginal. Meanwhile, Pujols is playing very Pujols-esque and not at all like he's an injury risk. Even before these trades, Roland was probably going to have the top hitting team in the UPL this year. His pitching? On paper, not so much. Yet, he picks up unknown guys who put random letters in their unpronounceable name (see: EdiNson Volquez and Jair Jurrjens) who proceed to pitch like Johan Santana and Jake Peavy. UPL members who weren't paying any attention beware. We will not be held liable for any fantasy casualties that may occur as a result of trading with Roland.

To those of you who have read this far, congrats for putting up with this much whining on your free time. Now I have to go see whether or not Mark Prior is available. Then again, maybe not.

The New Math

For those of you who labored through my Math for Winners posting, I've got one minor update..One thing that you need to factor in is also the competitiveness of the league. Over the years, as the faces of the UPL have become more consistent, we've had more competitive leagues. In the early years of the UPL, it would be pretty common place for teams out of contention to stop checking their team. But the last few years, particularly in basketball, owners out of contention have been updating teams. The net result should be that points are harder to come by in recent years than in years past.

I think that the trend started in 2005 Baseball, coming off of 2004, when we had some messy situations, partially based on me running away with the league, and partially based on some UPL first-timers (and only-timers) getting annoyed in June, and trying to dump their players. Unfortunately, in 2004, the Commissioner Tools were a little more rudimentary, so there couldn't be much done. But as we started putting in measures in place to prevent things that would disrupt the league, things stabilized, leading to a relatively tight race in 2005, even with a couple teams giving up early.

But what really helped this trend was 2006 Basketball, when Chowtime (in 6th place) went something like 24 out of 25 from the free throw line on the last day of the season to break a 7th place tie (out of 8 places). The loss of that half point put me into a tie w/ C-Lauff, giving him his first UPL championship, and annoying me to no end. Since then, we've had more teams play out the string, leading to fun happenings on the last day of the season, including another tie for the championship in 2007 Baseball with me and Greg, as well as Westy being knocked off the medal podium the last 2 years running by Chowtime. Come to think of it. Chowtime is become a last-day marvel, changing medal counts for the last 3 years.

In any case, what does this do to the math?

It seems that the requirements for victory are a little less stringent. So, instead of needing 85% to lock and 80% to have a good chance at victory in baseball, maybe the numbers shift to 82% and 77%, or maybe a 4.5 point shift downward, making 111 points your victory target, which seems to be holding form so far in 2008 Baseball. And a similar adjustment could be made for basketball, as well.

So what does this mean?

A couple things. First, more strategies become viable. Since the loosened requirements allow for more paths to get adequate points. However, the execution of any given strategy becomes harder, since each category becomes more competitive, top to bottom.

I also believe that this leads more of an emphasis on expected value for teams in the upper half of the league, rather than variance (or "upside"). In the past, you could get away with taking flyers on more players, since you knew that the downside wasn't going to hurt you a lot, since a bunch of teams weren't going to compete.

Let's look at two scenarios.

Scenario A: Let's say you're in 2nd place in a category, say OBP, 10 points back. You're also 10 points up on the team in 3rd and 15 points up on the team in 4th. If you pick up a guy who could improve you by 10 points, or drop you by 3 points, you pick him up every time, since the worst case scenario just closes the gap between 2nd and 3rd, but the best case scenario could get you into first.

Scenario B: You're still in 2nd place, but only 3 points back. But, 3rd place is 1 point back of you, 4th place is 2 points back, and 5th place is 3 points back. Same scenario. A guy is available who can get you 10 points, but may drop you 3 points. He may get you that extra point, but could cost you 2.5 points. Now, you have to think a little bit before you decide to take that chance.

Basically, as each category gets more competitive, then you see a closer bunching of the stats, toward the middle of the bell curve, if you will. So, small missteps when you're fighting for a points here or there are more costly than in years past.

What does this mean? Probably nothing for me, anyway. I'm comfortably ahead in the league standings right now, so maybe this whole competitiveness thing is overrated.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

One Kid's Baseball Fantasy

Being that this is my first blog entry ever (yes, welcome to the new millenium CLauff), I thought I'd start it off with something a bit unexpected. You see, I often travel for work and am driving home late from the airport. With nothing much to do to help me stay awake, I often wander over to ESPN radio to catch Jim Rome or some other talking head. Last night, however, began as a whole different kind of talk show, hosted by ESPN Sportscenter anchor Scott Van Pelt.

As all of us toil away at our computers battling to become the next UPL fantasy baseball champion, Scott Van Pelt shared this story about a high school senior near Pittsburgh, PA who is in the battle of his life with cancer. One of his fantasies? To have one final at-bat in a high school baseball game before he dies. 5'5", 93 pound John Challis from Freedom High School got his opportunity as a pinch-hitter in a game in late April.

"He hasn't played in a few years, but he's called on to pinch-hit. His eyes light up at the first pitch and he puts all of his 5-foot-5, 93-pound frame into one mighty swing, making contact and sending a line drive into right field for a single -- if he can reach first base. The cancer he's been battling for almost two years has spread to his pelvis, making running nearly impossible."

Based on the state of his disease, standing up at the plate and swinging a bat was living a fantasy in and of itself. But the story continues.

"The kid worries about falling as he hustles down the first-base line. When he gets to the base, he lets out with a yell. "I did it! I did it!"

Safe at first with a hit and an RBI, the kid is hugged by a crying first-base coach. The opposing pitcher takes off his glove, starts applauding and his teammates follow suit. The kid's teammates run onto the field to celebrate."

In an age where we're always glued to our TV waiting for the next PacMan Jones story to unfold, John reminds us of the simple joys of life through the lens of sport. He'll never play college basketball, heck, will probably not live long enough to enter a fantasy baseball league and win a championship. But what he's leaving behind is much more valuable than winning a Roland Slam or hitting a Grand Slam or delivering a Body Slam.

"But listen to his mature views on life and his philosophies ... and you might cry.

I used to be afraid, but I'm not afraid of dying now, if that's what you want to know," he said. "Because life ain't about how many breaths you take. It's what you do with those breaths."

John shows us that although we'll (well, most of us) never win a Roland Slam or hit a Grand Slam, there's work to be done with what we've been given. Hopefully, the legacy that John leaves behind is a case of life imitating sport. Definitely a good reminder for all of us.