An O.N.Thug's Perspective: Episode III - Eating Popcorn, While the Cheese (Sandwich) Stands Alone, Part I

This is the first of a 3-part review of the 2011 UPL Baseball season, and given the exciting finish, I'll start at the end.  In a nutshell, this is UPL Keeper Era: 3 seasons, 3 champions, 6 teams on the podium, with only 3 teams repeating podium performances.  Things have not settled like you may have figured a keeper league would.  And a lot of it was on display last night, when for the 2nd season in a row, game 162 in real-life baseball changed the fortunes of UPL Baseball.  And this is what this post is about.  But first some context.

About 6 or 7 weeks ago, Westy made a trade with Pauly, sending Craig Kimbrel to Hats for Bats, in exchange for Michael Pineda.  Most of the audience thought that it was a reasonable trade, moving a closer to get a live, young SP who had been pretty good through his first 4 or 5 months.  Rupert begged to differ, posting one of his classic messages about how he had been offering much better deals, and bemoaning the fact that Westy had settled on trading Kimbrel for a "cheese sandwich."  More on cheese sandwiches later.

The other prominent feature of the final weeks of 2011 UPL Baseball was popcorn.  Back in late June, Greg, in another of his subtle-so-as-to-not-be-subtle jabs, was commenting on how the O.N. Thugs were being uncooperative in his efforts in acquiring Clayton Kershaw, and how that it was clear that the Thugs were pushing for a Hats for Bats championship.  And before I had the chance to respond, the conversation was continued by Westy and C-Lauff, and Greg threw in this gem:

Passive-aggressive.  It's what's for dinner.  That and popcorn.

In any case, at this point, Hats for Bats were dominating the league, flying over the 140 mark.  And the O.N. Thugs were about 3 weeks into their annual comeback efforts, having moved from about 80 points up to about 95 points.  And mind you, the Thugs were in 5th of 6th place at the time (though it was better than the 7th or 8th place they were in at the start of June).  Naturally, the Thugs found reason for confidence.  And of course, there had to be a reply. 

 The latest in UPL icons: Greg enjoying popcorn, while I remind people to never get in a land war with China.

As an aside, I've been proud of how little explicit vulgarity I've been using in my trash talk. 

For the first couple months, the Thugs were publicly quiet about their 2011 team, but privately, they liked the squad.  After all, the disastrous May/June that led to the mediocre results had to be the worst-case scenario (Dunn being awful, Jeter looking old, Carpenter getting smacked around, Volquez getting demoted, Kershaw not hitting his stride, yet).  In conversations with OD and CJ, the Thugs would explain how things were trending upward, how they still had the best pitching staff in the UPL, and how Pauly was going to come back to earth, as Bautista and Weaver came back to earth.  The thought was that there was too much variance in Pauly's pitching for this to keep up.  And in these conversations, OD and CJ would just say "uh-huh" while rolling their eyes.  To paraphrase OD, "Uh, yeah.  I was pretty sure that you were talking out of your ass."

By any fair assessment, back in June, an O.N. Thugs victory would have been uber-Sisyphean.

Of course, this is how an O.N. Thug (or any other delusional person) sees the world.

But at the end of June, the Thugs went public by co-opting O.N. Thugs icon, Terrell Owens, and telling everyone who wasn't going to be involved (like Greg and Westy) to just sit back and enjoy the show (despite the fact that the Thugs well back in the standings).  But by the time September rolled around, the O.N. Thugs had moved all the way up to about 110 points, pretty much passing Greg up in the standings, to be in 3rd place.  And at the same time, C-Lauff had made a run, and was emerging as a winner in the duel w/ Pauly for first, with both teams running around 125-130 points.  So the O.N. Thugs had the task of making up 15-20 fantasy points, and jumping 2 teams.  Clearly, the O.N. Thugs had the title in the bag :-)

And amazingly enough, the picture of the UPL was sort of like this, through Game 161, out of 162, as the O.N. Thugs were in 1st place on the penultimate standings, with 123.5 points, with Pauly and C-Lauff just behind.

 Generally, in situations like this, you bet on Rock.  Paper and Scissor are generally afterthoughts.

But like Dr. Jones, the Jabrones make an epic escape, aided by two cheese sandwiches.

If you've ever played in a poorly designed head-to-head league, one of the features is the churning of pitchers.  Basically, you pick up and drop pitchers so you can use them for a given start.  Generally, a keeper league will dissuade you from doing that too much.  However, the last few days of the season end up being like those head-to-head leagues - you figure out who your keepers are, and anyone who you know won't be kept may get dropped so that you can pick up an SP to get an extra start or two in the hopes of chasing an extra W or getting a miracle bump in ERA or WHIP.  Similarly, you may start to try to find a random HR or SB with an offensive player that would hurt your OBP or SLG in the long run, but may be a quick miracle cure.  From an aesthetic standpoint, it's sort of an ugly way to win - much like hitting your opponent with a steel chair while your manager distracts the ref.  From a practical standpoint, you have to do it, because it maximizes your chances, and if you do it right, can steal you a point or two at the end of the season. 

In anticipation of the churning, the Thugs evoked some of Rupert's imagery:

Channel your inner Homer... mmm... cheese sandwiches...

Now, I have to admit that when I posted this, I knew that I had an advantage.  First of all, I was up by one W on both Pauly and C-Lauff.  And more importantly, I wouldn't get hurt by an L, as I was 3 L's behind Pauly.  So I had some room to work with.  And in fact, I sort of wanted Pauly and C-Lauff to stretch.  My logic was that the Fantasy Gods would punish anyone who was going to start a cheese sandwich, if not with an L, but at least with a bad ERA/WHIP.  And Pauly and I were dueling over both ERA and WHIP, and C-Lauff was at risk in WHIP (with, ironically, Cheeseheads).  My thought was that the churn could easily take a turn for the worst, and hang them with 1 or 2 L's (which would be worth 0.5 to 1 points), and that they could backfire in ERA and WHIP.  And the second thought that I had was that I had a guy who wasn't a cheese sandwich (Carpenter) who had a pedigree, who was on a roll in September, and who was playing in a must-win game.  I liked my chances w/out churning an starter, especially when I looked down the list.

Wade LeBlanc didn't look bad starting in SD, but the Cubs felt like the sort of team that may go off and hand a dozen runs on a team when the game is meaningless.

Ted Lilly looked reasonable, but I had bet against the D-Backs twice with Tim Lincecum, and gotten bit both times.  Basically, I didn't feel like messing with the D-Backs with the season on the line.

Christ Volstad against WAS wouldn't be terrible, but he was going up against Stephen Strasburg, who was looking solid.

And really, that was about it for me.

When I saw that Pauly got Miguel Batista, my first thought was that "Pauly's an idiot.  Miguel Batista died years ago."  But I looked closer, and it turns out that Batista was, in fact, alive, and starting for the Mets against my Reds.  My Reds who finished 2nd in the league in runs scored.  So my thought changed to, "Pauly's crazy - he's about to give me that point in WHIP, too."  It was at that point that I decided that I was going to start Volquez, as well (I did check to see if OD, who I was tied with in W, had starters going, and saw that he had 2).  I figured that I needed to give myself a chance to stay ahead of OD, in case he got a W.  That and it would be fitting for me to let Volquez atone for his fantasy baseball sins.  So I had one cheese sandwich going, and it was one that had a high ceiling.  So I felt that I was in a stronger position than either C-Lauff of Pauly with my pitching.

So the morning comes, and I roll out of bed.  I see that Volquez was pitching well, but the Reds were down 1-0.  Eh.  Whatever.  Then I notice that Volquez gave up a 2-run HR.  Uggh.  Oh well.  At least the Reds will get to Batista and punish him eventually, right?

So I get showered, and roll out to lunch.  And I see this show up on my Blackberry.:

 Sometimes there's no justice :-)  Also, Pauly had that icon before Sheen had his #DuhWinning meltdown.

Really?  And sure enough, Volquez gets stuck w/ the L, though his line of 7 IP, 3ER, 6H, 1BB, and 5K is actually pretty decent.  But at this point, my grip on ERA had slipped, so that I was percentage points behind.

And a little while after, I see this on my Facebook feed, from Tom, White Sox fan, one of Mikey's old roommates, and former UPL Football dim-wit turned finalist (Tom was the guy who didn't look at the rules and drafted Pittsburgh DEF early in the first round, presumably because "defense wins championships," and was labeled as Tweedledum [or Tweedledummer, I don't really remember] by myself).

Tweedledum (or dummer) as the bearer of bad news.

Of course, I thought to myself, "Sucks to be Greg (who owned Sergio Santos).  Sale just tossed 1 2/3 last night to get the SV.  He's young, and they're going to build up his arm strength to be a starter next season.  There's no way they're going to jeopardize that."  And then I realized that this was the White Sox we were talking about.  The same White Sox that seem to botch player development and had everything go wrong this season.  So I just had to check.  And sure enough, somehow it was Chris Sale on the mound.  At least he didn't blow out his arm (I don't think).  But the damage was done.  1/3 IP, 2ER, 2H, 3BB.  I don' t know exactly how close it would have been. But I lost a point in ERA to Pauly after the Volquez and Sale debacle, and it didn't look like I could get it back (I was then at 3.20, while Pauly was down to 3.17).  Happily, the 2 L's didn't factor into it.  And in all honesty, I probably would not have been gutsy enough to start Volquez had L's mattered.

At that point, Pauly was in first, I was behind, and C-Lauff had lost ground. I still had hope because I had other avenues to victory (namely by scoring some runs on offense, swiping a few bases, or racking up some OBP).  And there was plenty of play left, as Pauly still had one more cheese sandwich, and C-Lauff had 2 cheese sandwiches to eat.

Which set the stage for the exciting finish to the season, where the UPL championship wasn't won until the last pitch was thrown.

More on that in Episode III, part II.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Draft Day Dilemmas

The UPL Baseball Draft has come and gone again. This season I found myself falling into some traps that I thought wouldn't plague me again. For instance, I once again focused on need over talent. I also didn't prepare a deep enough list of players to draft, and thus found my game plan collapsing by the later rounds. This was compounded by the fact that my Internet kept going out every 3 to 4 minutes.

Heading into the draft my team desperately needed 2B, SS, and RP. (With Brian Wilson on the DL, I only had one closer, Drew Storen, and his spring was very concerning.) Last year I focused on closers early in the keeper draft, and while my bullpen did well last year, I never managed to get a quality SS on my team. And with McGehee losing 2B eligibility, I found myself in a similar position as last season in terms of needs. But unlike last year, I was determined to address both SS and 2B before RP.

When I saw that Rafael Furcal was available, I did lots of research on him and decided his upside was worth the injury risk. I was picking 8th, and Furcal was the #2 rated hitter available (after Martin Prado), so  my chances of getting him were slim. But I held out some hope. And when the Cheeseheads were picking 7th with Furcal still on the board, I actually thought I was going to land him because the Cheeseheads already had Troy Tulowitzki. But no, the Cheeseheads went with the proven talent and took Furcal.

When researching 2B/SS before the draft, one name that caught my eye was Ryan Raburn of the Tigers. He had barely played enough at 2B last season to qualify at that position, but he was really an outfielder with some power. Grey at Razzball was high on him (in the good sense), and lots of people seemed to think that Raburn could have a breakout season. Yes, he was nearing 30 years old, but he had already shown decent MLB production over the past 2 seasons. He had played in 113 games in each of the last 2 years -- and if he could get into more like 140, he was somebody who could give you 20+ homers at 2B. That would be nice.

Ideally, I would have loved to have taken Furcal at #8 in the 1st round and then Raburn at #19 in the 2nd round. With Furcal off the board, I felt compelled to take Raburn while I could. My thought was that he has a chance at going .360/.490 with 24 homers at 2B eligibility, and that would be really nice. Yeah, he probably would have dropped to the 2nd round, but I didn't want to take that chance. Maybe if I had known at the time that my guy Mat Latos would be heading to the DL, I would have taken a starter like Ricky Nolasco. But other than that, I'm not sure that I would have been too high on the guys who went right after Raburn. It's not that they're bad, it's just that these are all guess at this point anyway. Mike Trout has more trade value right now than Raburn, but I don't like the idea of having a guy in the minors sitting on my bench, especially when he's still so young (19) and unproven.

When my 2nd pick came around, I looked at the available SS's and didn't like what I saw, so I bailed out with safe pick--Chris Sale as an elite middle reliever with potential to hawk a few saves (and potentially more if Thornton doesn't get the job done). I also had Luke Gregerson qued up here in case Sale went off the board; this info is significant because my Internet connection later went out and I auto-drafted Gregerson with my 3rd pick. That might turn out OK, but I would have preferred to go after someone else in that spot since I already had Sale--for instance, Chipper Jones could have been on my radar.

In the 4th round, I was a little surprised to see Mike Minor still on the board. Yes, I knew that he had unexpectedly lost out on the 5th starter spot for Atlanta, but at the same time he's still an elite prospect who performed well at the major league level toward the end of last season. Just because a prospect gets sent down to Triple-A at the end of spring training doesn't necessarily mean anything is wrong. Based on my research, Minor had pitched well, but so had Brandon Beachy. The Braves decided to go with Beachy for now. Okay. In the short term, Minor's stock takes a hit. It also means he's available in a garbage round. Since I wanted to get at least one elite prospect in this draft, I went with Minor.

In the 5th round, I had to take a SS. My team had zero SS's on the roster, and while part of me thought my chances were better with no SS compared to who was available, ultimately my brain told me my odds were slightly better by taking the best SS available. (I use the word "best' here loosely.) I went with a young guy with some speed who'd would be hitting toward the top of an anemic lineup. His name is Alcides Escobar, or something like that. Unfortunately, I was basically in exactly the same position as last year when late in the draft I took some young guy with speed who would be hitting toward the top of an anemic lineup (Padres). Although, I can't remember that shortstop's name. Seriously, I can't. He's just some guy who underperformed last season and made me want to forget all about him. I hope this Escobar guy can do better, but I'm not holding my breath...

By the 6th round my player list had collapsed and I was basically flying blind. With a spotty Internet connection, I couldn't cruise the web looking for last-minute research. So I went with who I thought was the best proven hitter still available: Marlon Byrd. I know, that was a terrible pick. But at that point I was just trying to minimize damage.

In the 7th round my Internet attacked again and I was left with the autodraft: David Murphy. Let's pretend I didn't write that last sentence.

In the 8th (and last) round, I was thinking about steals. Bourn was one of my keepers, but I wouldn't consider him a reliable player (and most speedy guys aren't very reliable due to a slightly higher risk for injuries that prevent them from getting as many steals). I had remembered from some of my reading a few days before the draft that Eric Young was battling for a platoon spot with the Rockies, but that he still might be a good late-round pick in case he was able to put things together. My thought here was that maybe Young would get off to a good start and get more playing time than expected--which might lead to season where he bats .275 (maybe a .320 OBP?) with 35+ steals. Yeah, I know, that was an extremely optimistic outlook, but it's the thought I had in my mind. Of course, I soon as I picked him, Pauly noted that Young had already been sent down to the minors. Whoops.

So how did I do? Well, as usual, during the draft I feel like I'm doing poorly compared to the group, but after a few days I settle down and feel better. Realistically, if Raburn can be a top 5 2B, my draft right away starts looking better. If Sale and Gregerson both put up elite pitching stats and mix in some saves, then that's nice, too. If Mike Minor eventually blossoms into a top 20 starter pitching for a good team (Braves) in a pitcher-friendly park (Atlanta), then that's pretty good, too. Those results would move my team forward a step, and really, that's all you can hope to do in this type of draft.

But will it happen? Nobody can predict the future, and each pick is always a risk. If Raburn is a bust, if either Sale or Gregerson implode, and if Minor lives up to his name and spends most of his time down on the farm, then yeah, my draft will look stupid. 

Each year people comment about how the UPL's competitiveness is increasing, and this year seems to be no different. When I finally realized yesterday that Storen didn't get Washington's save, I tried to pick up Sean Burnett but Rupert had beat me to him by about an hour. These types of things are happening more and more often, and when I look back at our draft, I do see some savvy picks were made that I wouldn't have known about until I read about some of these guys after the draft. I've also missed out on some starting pitchers on the waiver wire recently because I didn't want to risk a waiver priority but others did (Wade Davis and J.A. Happ come to mind). In the UPL, it feels like you have to go after almost any small advantage possible. To make an analogy, it's like playing against a great-shooting basketball team and if you don't get all the way out to defend the three, they'll make you pay. Early on I've had some slips, and I can already see some of those threes swishing in.

Another thought on my mind is that last year I was not aggressive enough with trades. I probably should get busy on that front soon...

New Face

We're welcoming a new face, which is really a familiar face, here at the UPL Blog. Greg, of '90 Reds fame, is joining as a contributor. As (we think) he will continue to post baseball trivia and other baseball fantasies, we're not sure if this is going to be a short-term or a regular thing, but we figure that he'll post about as often as C-Lauff and CJ do out here. So,welcom to Greg, the latest part of the motley crew that brings you the UPL Blog.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Damn Reds, Damn Yankees

So lots of folks (myself included) had some hope for the Reds this year, mainly due to the starting rotation. Cueto was supposed to keep improving. Harang was supposed to bounce back. Arroyo was going to be his usual slightly above average self. We'd get some help w/ Chapman and Leake, and maybe Volquez could put us over the top in August.

Leake's been about what you'd hope for. But Harang, Cueto, and Arroyo are not owned in the UPL, and have a combined ERA of about 7. Ouch. Volquez has been suspended for taking unicorn hormone extract. And Chapman is still in the minors... and by the way, we're already 3 games under .500 and 4 games out of first - in late April. Damn Reds.

Between the Reds, Red Sox, White Sox, Cubs, and Brewers, the majority of the UPL is 9 games under .500 in real-life. Only Pauly's Fish are doing well (2 games over .500). If it wasn't for fantasy baseball, we'd probably have a dozen baseball fans grumbling through the marathon season that is Major League Baseball. In the past, my only recourse was to lease my soul and root for the Yankees once my Reds were out of contention (the typical change-over date would be May 15 or so).* While hope springs eternal, it seems to die pretty early for most baseball fans. However, fantasy baseball has given 2nd life for us suckers, who would otherwise spend the dog days of summer in purgatory. I'm a little less vested in the Yankees, while the O.N. Thugs make their annual pilgrimage to the top of the UPL. But win or lose, once October rolls around, I can't help but keep rooting for Derek Jeter and those Damn Yankees.

What's interesting is that in real life, I've started to actually like the players that put on the O.N. Thugs' fantasy uniform. Ascending fantasy gods (I hope) like Clayton Kershaw, who play for a team that I dislike (always hated the Dodgers - they always killed my Reds), would have ordinarily become a hated player, instead becomes "my guy" in real life. Established fantasy gods like David Wright (sans 2009) and Tim Lincecum, who I'd likely admire, but probably dislike, become some of my favorites. Guys like Julio Borbon, Akinori Iwamura and Shin-Shoo Choo, who normally would get mocked for their funny names and their ethnic heritages... well, they still get mocked, but only in a mildly racist way. Players like Jay Bruce or Joey Votto, who are on the Reds? Well, I want them to do well... good enough for the Reds to win, but maybe not so well that their fantasy owners really see a huge benefit :-)

And once in a great while there is an aspiring hero like Aroldis Chapman (or Deron Williams for me in hoops a couple years ago)? The prospects on my real life team, as well as my fantasy team? He ends up being Church. The Word. The Gospel. The One who bridges the gap between two worlds, the real life world and the fantasy world that we often look to when the tides of the real world are overwhelming. Sometimes we find a savior, and sometimes we find a false prophet. We don't necessarily know which path our aspiring heroes will take. But the matter takes on additional importance. Our fantasy salvation is at stake.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)


*In my defense, I moved up to Albany, NY in 1993 at the start of high school, right when the Yankees were turning things around. Lots of games on TV. And we had the AA team right there in Albany, where I got to meet a young Derek Jeter, who was great with the fans and always stayed to sign every last autograph, including the small stack of rookie cards that he was gracious enough to sign. The leasing of my soul has become less and less painful over the years, to the point where I sort of look forward to rooting for a winning team in May or June.

Not Bullish. Not Bearish. Definitely Thuggish: An (Almost) Decade of UPL Hijinks

With the close of the Twenty-Aughts, the UPL has evolved from a haphazard grouping of random chumps into... well... uh... maybe we haven't evolved from a membership standpoint. But we've been innovating quite a bit. In both baseball and basketball, we've moved from a season-long points league, to a roto league. And this has probably been for the better, since our points leagues were always largely decided 2/3 of the way through (if not earlier). Now, with the roto format, we've had some incredibly exciting finishes the last few years, with a number of ties.

In football, we've always been a little ahead of the curve with our stats, and have been pushing the limits of roster complexity by having additional flex positions and allowing return yardage. And recently, we have added individual defensive players to the point where now we have 4 starting defensive players, in addition to a team defense. We haven't started drafting punters, but you better believe that as soon as Yahoo! adds that feature, we'll be figuring out what round we should draft Shane Lechler in (probably the 9th, if you had to know it).

Interestingly, leagues like this pretty much run themselves, once you have things up an running. And with as much momentum as we've gained in the 9 years since our start-up back in 2001 Baseball, we've been able to add on some innovations, including this space. The UPL Blog has been a fun little project, which we've undertaken (and are always looking for more authors!). But I think that need for a space like this really took off with the idea that we were going to try to extend the reach of the fantasy season by going with keeper leagues in baseball and basketball. And with any keeper league, you have to figure out new rules, like how you will handle keepers, the draft order, etc. The UPL Blog has let us make these announcements, even when Yahoo! doesn't have things ready to go. Part of the innovation has been things like doing a UPL Draft Lottery prior to the basketball season, which was a successful venture. I believe that we'll carry it over into baseball.

As much as I love thinking about how we've been able to improve the UPL, and having some ideas of where we want to go forward, that's not really why we play the game. At the end of the day, it's all about the jewelry.

Sport	Year	Teams	Champ	2nd	3rd	4th
Baseball	2001	10	'90Reds	O.N. Thugs	IamJabrone	Westy
Baseball	2002	?	O.N. Thugs	?	?	?
Baseball	2003	11	O.N. Thugs	IamJabrone	Cheeseheads	SuckCurveballs
Baseball	2004	14	O.N. Thugs	Champaign Toast	Westy	GenEric
Baseball	2005	12	O.N. Thugs	IamJabrone	Westy	SuckCurveballs
Baseball	2006	11	Phatsnapper	Westy	O.N. Thugs	IamJabrone
Baseball	2007	11	O.N. Thugs (tie)	'90Reds (tie)	IamJabrone	Milwaukee
Baseball	2008	12	IamJabrone	O.N. Thugs	SuckCurveballs	JimmyDix
Baseball	2009	12	'90Reds	Westy	IamJabrone	O.N. Thugs
Basketball	2002	9	O.N. Thugs	Tweedledumm	C-Lauff	SuperFriends
Basketball	2003	12	O.N. Thugs	Westy	3 Men & Afro	SuckBasketballs
Basketball	2004	9	Westy	O.N. Thugs	Sparty	Groove
Basketball	2005	7	Westy	O.N. Thugs	Milwaukee	Groove
Basketball	2006	8	O.N. Thugs (tie)	IamJabrone (tie)	SuckBasketballs	Milwaukee
Basketball	2007	10	O.N. Thugs	IamJabrone	chowtime	Westy
Basketball	2008	12	O.N. Thugs	IamJabrone	chowtime	Westy
Basketball	2009	11	O.N. Thugs (tie)	Stephan (tie)	Sparty	IamJabrone
Football	2001	9	I Giocatori	ChrisF	Dino	Panda Bears
Football	2002	12	I Giocatori	Westy	IamJabrone	GenEric
Football	2003	14	O.N. Thugs	Tweedledummer	I Giocatori (tie)	Tweedledumm (tie)
Football	2004	14	Tweedledumm	Tweedledummer	Cheeseheads	O.N. Thugs
Football	2005	14	I Giocatori	IamJabrone	O.N. Thugs	Yvonne
Football	2006	10	I Giocatori	O.N. Thugs	GenEric	IamJabrone
Football	2007	12	JimmyDix	O.N. Thugs	I Giocatori	Dino
Football	2008	12	IamJabrone	Stephan	I Giocatori	O.N. Thugs
Football	2009	14	Dino	Stephan	O.N. Thugs	IamJabrone

First of all, does anyone remember anything from 2002 Baseball (# of teams, who finished 2nd, 3rd, etc.). Yahoo! doesn't have any records of that year. All I remember is that the O.N. Thugs won, and it was was the last year we did a points league, because for the 2nd straight year, the season was over by mid-July, and people stopped checking their team. And I seem to recall Greg finishing in the bottom half, and not being able to follow-up his inaugural victory. If you could help me fill in the blanks, that would be great.

In any case, some interesting things to look at here. First of all in the roto leauges, the UPL has a definite Thuggish flavor, with the O.N. Thugs taking home 6 out of 8 championships in hoops, and 5 out of 9 in hardball. But that isn't to say that there isn't some competition in each. In both sports, there are repeat champs ('90 Reds with 3 baseball titles and Westy with 2 hoops titles). And those O.N. Thugs victories weren't all clean victories (a baseball tie w/ '90 Reds, and 2 hoops ties, one with IamJabrone, and one with Stephan). And recently, there have been some rumblings in baseball, where the '90 Reds have been champs 2 out of the last 3 years, and where IamJabrone has actually outperformed the O.N. Thugs two years running. In fact, the O.N. Thugs - IamJabrone interactions has actually started to look like a rivalry, with the two franchises going toe-to-toe on a regular basis, including this year's hoops rivalry which is essentially a dead heat between the two teams halfway through the season.

Perhaps the most impressive feat is in UPL Football, where resident savant I Giocatori has managed to win 4 times, with no one else able to claim more than one title. In fact, UPL Football has had the most diversity with 6 different champions over 9 seasons with 4 of those champs having never won a UPL title in another sport. Just for the record, we've had 4 champs in baseball and 2 in hoops.

We've had some unlikely champions throughout the UPL history. There was 2007 Football, where UPL newcomer JimmyDix not only rolls through the regular season as the #1 seed, but actually verifies things by rolling through the playoffs, en route to a championship in his first UPL experience, making UPL regulars like Schultzie and GenEric throw up in their mouths. There was 2004 Football, where Tweedledum and Tweedledummer played in probably the most unlikely football final in UPL history, with Tweedledum taking home the title, leaving Tweedledummer in 2nd place for the 2nd year in the row. This was a far cry from the Tweedledummer who neglected to look at the scoring rules, and decided that defense wins championships, and picked the Pittsburgh Defense in the 1st round back in 2002. And of course there was 2006 Baseball where Phatsnapper somehow took home a title, sandwiched between 17th place finishes every year before that and every year since.

And there have been some amazing wins by familiar faces. Like in 2006 Football, where I Giocatori backs into the playoffs with the 8th seed, at 6-7, only to punk Westy in the opening round, and then squeeze out two tough W's over the Jabrones and Thugs to win his 4th ring. There was 2007 Baseball and 2009 Basketball, where the O.N. Thugs were left for dead, lingering in 10th place or so at the half-way point, only to loudly storm back for championships, and betting on themselves along the way. In fact, the O.N. Thugs bet the Jabrones a dollar that they would finish ahead of them in 2007 Baseball. At the time, the O.N. Thugs were mired in 10th place, and the Jabrones were in 1st, so it appeared to be a sucker's bet, against the O.N. Thugs. What happened was a ridiculously rise into first, which resulted in the UPL Bill, which is signed by the Jabrones, carries the name of every UPL Baseball champion, and is currently the only UPL trophy. A similar story happened in 2008 Basketball, when the O.N. Thugs were decimated by injuries in the first half of the season, but managed to stay afloat long enough to wait for their players to get healthy and make a run at the title. Interestingly, in both instances, the O.N. Thugs actually managed to take a clean lead in the league, only to give back a half point on the last day of the season and end up in a tie for 1st.

As we open up the Twenty-Teen's, the UPL looks as strong as ever, with a healthy 14 team football season, and two healthy keeper leagues in baseball and basketball. Things should be exciting, as we move into decade #2 for the UPL.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Basketball 2009 Draft Recap

This year, I decided to employ a new strategy. In one of the comments of my last post, I made this bold declaration:

"I am also considering doing something different than my usual plan of going out until 4am the night before the draft, rolling out of bed right when the draft is starting, and then picking guys whose names I can pronounce."

And sure enough, I kept my promise. This year, I stayed out too late, and just slept through the draft entirely. The best part was that right around 10:30, OD gives me a call to remind me about the draft. I groan, pick up the phone, see that it's OD, and decide, "Ugh. I'll just give him a call back later." Then a little later, I wake up at 11:25, and realize that the draft was long over. I'm awesome.

So, this draft recap will be a little different, since it will be more of a historical analysis, than an ethnography. But it should still be interesting. And it's interesting - my philosophy in fantasy sports, particularly keeper leagues, is that you get the guy that you want, unless there's absolute, clear value. This is me taking Deron Williams over D-Wade, because D-Will is my guy, and there's the greater threat of catastrophic injury for D-Wade. I mean, that's probably still a homer pick. But that's my mode of thinking, which makes me surprised at some of the picks that happened in this draft.

Round 9
1	Anthony Randolph	IamJabrone
2	Rasheed Wallace	Floor burns
3	Michael Redd	Phatsnapper
4	Charlie Villanueva	Love Timberw...
5	Ben Gordon	Milwaukee Br...
6	Emeka Okafor	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Blake Griffin	chowtime
8	Mike Bibby	Westy's Ball...
9	Jeff Green	Sparty Rules
10	Tyrus Thomas	Wakeup with ...
11	Spencer Hawes	O.N. Thugs

Right off the bat, we see some interesting choices. First of all, the Jabrones go with hype, hope for the playing time, and take Anthony Randolph, who's supposed to be coming into his own this year. I'd have played it safer and either gone with Redd or Gordon, or just go with Blake Griffin right there (note we'll ignore the broken kneecap, since that hadn't happened, yet). You can't really fault this pick, since they weren't going to pick again for a while. You get the guy you want.

The next pick is just flat out mystifying. Rasheed is a 35 year old big, who will give you some OK stats, but will probably be option 3a or 3b in Boston this year. He probably only racks up about 28 minutes per game, and probably won't score 12 ppg. His rebounding numbers will go down, and his FG% will be bad since he hangs out on the perimeter and jacks 3's. But other than that, he's great. Given FloorBurns' relatively weak back-end keepers, the pick here should have been Redd or a younger player that is likely to emerge as a keeper. Certainly not Rasheed.

At this point, there are a series of teams that finished low, and need long-term help. I'm OK with Redd going #3 and Gordon going #5. I'm just confused by Charlie Villaneuva at #4. He's still young, but last season, playing for a bad Bucks team, he played 27 minutes per game. Career, he has played 26.5 minutes per game. He'll be in a rotation with a bunch of players in Detroit, and looks to be the 4th or 5th best offensive option on that team (after Gordon, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and maybe Rodney Stuckey). His hustle stats are OK. His shooting is subpar for a big. The odds of him being a keeper next year are about 40-60, against. This pick should have been a much better upside pick (Blake Griffin, Tyrus Thomas, Emeka Okafor, etc.) I'm not really a fan.

Then comes OD, with the 6th pick. And he rolls w/ his UConn guy, Okafor. If he's healthy, Okafor's looking like a 14 and 10 guy, with maybe 1.5 to 2 blocks. The problem is, he's always banged up, and he's actually regressed a bit from his best season in 06-07. If you were evaluating this pick in a bubble, you can definitely make a good case for it. But the problem is that Chowtime picks 7th. As I noted before, his team was ranked really high up top, but his last 2 keepers were marginal, at best. And he ends up with Blake Griffin. This is a very scary outcome, actually, and this would probably have not happened had I been awake, as I probably would have berated OD until he picked Griffin. Now Westy misses out on his chance to upgrade his 8th keeper from Luis Scola to Blake Griffin, who goes to Chowtime.

Westy wants to go little, and decides to try to win this year by picking up Mike Bibby, who is probably a marginal keeper next year, and passes on younger players like Jonny Flynn, Steph Curry, or Tyreke Evans (who may last another two rounds). Can't really fault the Mike Bibby selection, though I'm not particularly fond of him in that dysfunctional ATL offense... and I can't really believe that Bibby is who Westy really wants on his roster, long-term.

The next pick is the 2nd boner by OD of the draft. Somehow, he decided to keep Rudy Fernandez, and let Jeff Green go. Huge mistake. Rudy would have probably been available in the 12th or 13th round. Green is an easy choice for the 9th, and normally would have fit in better for Westy, but Westy was looking for a guard, and not the best value available. Sparty is more than happy to pick him up, since scoring appears to be an issue for him, and Green will help there. The next pick is a killer for me. The guy I was hoping would fall to me, Tyrus Thomas, gets snatched up by Stephan. Not sure about his PT in the Bulls rotation, w/ Deng coming back, but he played great down the stretch last year. He can single-handedly keep you in contention in both STL and BLK.

Which actually leaves me in a bad situation, even if I had been present. Going into the draft, had I been picking first, I would have probably picked Redd since he qualified at SF, and helps me out w/ the 3PM. My next best option would have been Blake Griffin. There was virtually no chance that they fall to me at 11. I was hoping that Tyrus Thomas and J.R. Smith would be available. I did end up getting J.R. Smith w/ my 2nd pick (the first of the 10th round), but I also got stuck w/ the auto-draft special, Spencer Hawes. I think that the computer decided that the O.N. Thugs needed the best white player available.

Now, had I been there, I would have settled on J.R. Smith, and one of the following: Tyson Chandler, Trevor Ariza, Michael Beasley, Tyreke Evans, or Allen Iverson. Possibly Yao. Given my lack of quality at SF, there's a good chance that it would have been Ariza or Beasley. But I may have also just gone w/ Chandler again, figuring that he wouldn't screw me 2 years in a row. But instead, I end up with Spencer Hawes. I'm trying to talk myself into this guy. He was 11 and 7 last year, in about 29 minutes per game. He blocks over a shot a game. Did I mention that he was white? We'll see how long this guys lasts on the O.N. Thugs.

Round 10
1	J.R. Smith	O.N. Thugs
2	Tyson Chandler	Wakeup with ...
3	Ron Artest	Sparty Rules
4	Mike Conley	Westy's Ball...
5	Brad Miller	chowtime
6	Tayshaun Prince	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Trevor Ariza	Milwaukee Br...
8	Jason Thompson	Love Timberw...
9	Luol Deng	Phatsnapper
10	Joakim Noah	Floor burns
11	Jermaine O'Neal	IamJabrone

The 10th round opens up with my auto-draft bouncing back and getting me J.R. Smith. Stephan takes another guys I had highly rated, in Tyson Chandler. Sparty picks up former and eternal Thug, Ron Artest, who's an interesting pick, since his level of variance is so high in that Laker offense. If you told me that he'll score 7 points per game this year, I'd believe you. And if you told me that he'll score 15 points per game, I'd believe you. I have no clue what he'll be doing this year in LA.

Now, the 4th pick of the round is surprising to me. Westy goes Mike Conley. He was 10 and 4 last year, in 30 minutes per game. He'll chip in a 3PM and a STL per game, but not much else. This year he has AI in the mix, as well as a bunch of gunners (Mayo, Gay, and Zach Randolph). I am shocked that Westy goes with Conley here, over Jonny Flynn (his Minnesota guy) or Tyreke Evans (who's my guess at ROY this year, now that Blake went down), especially since his next pick isn't for another 15 picks. Particularly in a keeper draft, I believe in the idea of getting the guy you want, and again, I have a hard time believing that Conley is the guy that Westy really wanted.

The rest of the round is sort of uneventful. Phatsnapper and OD may be getting value with Luol Deng and Tayshaun. The Jabrones must believe that they're set with AST, and go big w/ Jermaine O'Neal, who may or may not be totally washed up.

Round 11
1	Richard Hamilton	IamJabrone
2	Chris Duhon	Floor burns
3	Francisco Garcia	Phatsnapper
4	Michael Beasley	Love Timberw...
5	Jamal Crawford	Milwaukee Br...
6	Ryan Gomes	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Jonny Flynn	chowtime
8	Allen Iverson	Westy's Ball...
9	Rodney Stuckey	Sparty Rules
10	Tyreke Evans	Wakeup with ...
11	Mike Miller	O.N. Thugs

The 11th round starts off with the Jabrones picking up Rip Hamilton, who has been shooting more 3's the last couple years, but still isn't a real 3PM guy. I'd say that he's a borderline starter for a top flight fantasy team, but completely doesn't fit into my style of roster building (I don't like guys that only score unless they drain 3's, which is why I was actually considering not keeping Monta Ellis). I'm not fond of either the Duhon or the Garcia pick, since they don't seem to have keeper potential. Love the Beasley pick by Robby. Jamal Crawford drives me nuts, and looks to be the 6th man in ATL... I'd probably pass. Then comes the interesting pick. Jonny Flynn (who Westy is high on), goes to Chowtime. Westy gest AI, instead. I'm willing to bet that at this point, Westy regrets the Conley pick. After that, Stuckey goes to Sparty. And for the 2nd time in 2 tries, I lose my guy to Stephan. Had I been at the draft, I probably would have been angry at this point. But I end up with Mike Miller.

I'm actually OK with Mike Miller at the end of the 11th round, since it appears that he'll be starting in Washington, and when Arenas is on the bench, there's a good chance that the offense gets facilitated through Miller. I'm guessing that his scoring stays in the low teens, but he'll keep making 3PM, and will put up okay AST and REB numbers.

Round 12
1	Peja Stojakovic	O.N. Thugs
2	Al Thornton	Wakeup with ...
3	Chris Andersen	Sparty Rules
4	Marc Gasol	Westy's Ball...
5	Stephen Curry	chowtime
6	Raymond Felton	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Mario Chalmers	Milwaukee Br...
8	Ronnie Brewer	Love Timberw...
9	Courtney Lee	Phatsnapper
10	Nate Robinson	Floor burns
11	Ramon Sessions	IamJabrone

Now, what I'm not thrilled about is getting Peja in the 12th. Unless he's healthy. If he's healthy, then he's 16 points, and 3 3PM a game. But my preference would have been Steph Curry. But instead, the auto-draft has decided that since we picked just about the blackest dude possible in J.R. Smith, I needed more whiteness on my team so much that we went with the 2 best white players available. Good times.

The good news is that Stephan finally has a pick that I'm not envious of. Chowtime adds another potential keeper. I still have a suspicion that Raymond Felton will finally emerge at a legit player, so I actually like this pick. Ronnie Brewer is an interesting player. His shooting has nowhere to go but up. Teams were leaving him wide open from 18 feet, which is unheard of in the NBA. He's really good at getting STL, but has been a total liability on offense. Mario Chalmers is a nice little pick up for the Bricks, since he'll help you be competitive in 3PM and STL, and has a good A/TO, though he doesn't handle the ball enough to really accumulate points or AST. I'm curious to see how Nate Robinson progresses for the Knicks. Any point guard in a Mike D'Antoni system has the chance to put up big numbers, but he's such a gunner that even with some stat inflation, he's only putting up 4 AST per game.

Round 13
1	Tracy McGrady	IamJabrone
2	Randy Foye	Floor burns
3	Corey Maggette	Phatsnapper
4	Larry Hughes	Love Timberw...
5	Aaron Brooks	Milwaukee Br...
6	D.J. Augustin	SuckMyDribbl...
7	DeJuan Blair	chowtime
8	Mike Dunleavy	Westy's Ball...
9	Samuel Dalembert	Sparty Rules
10	Matt Barnes	Wakeup with ...
11	Shane Battier	O.N. Thugs

Tracy McGrady is a nice lottery ticket here in the 13th round by the Jabrones, especially when he comes back w/out Yao clogging up the lane for him. Maggette may be a nice value pick if he's healthy. I like Chowtime's pick again, as he'll have an option for rebounding, if he needs it. And Blair did show some nice touch in the low block. Nothing too exciting the rest of the round. I'm a little surprised that Westy didn't take Battier (who he defended quite a bit last year, when I suggested that Battier shouldn't have been on his roster). The main reason that I'm surprised is that I would have assumed that I was fated to draft Mike Dunleavy, as the auto-draft continued on it's "best white player available" strategy for me. I'm not exactly thrilled w/ Battier, but in the 13th, it could be worse. Plus, w/ T-Mac and Yao out for the time being, a few more points may fall his way. I'm much more excited about who the auto-draft sent my way in the last round.

Round 14
1	Louis Williams	O.N. Thugs
2	Brendan Haywood	Wakeup with ...
3	Kirk Hinrich	Sparty Rules
4	Darko Milicic	Westy's Ball...
5	Yao Ming	chowtime
6	Grant Hill	SuckMyDribbl...
7	Brandon Rush	Milwaukee Br...
8	Yi Jianlian	Love Timberw...
9	Zydrunas Ilgauskas	Phatsnapper
10	James Harden	Floor burns
11	Anthony Morrow	IamJabrone

I like Louis Williams, since he's got a lot of upside at one of those gunners on a bad team. He'll finally be starting in Philly, w/ Andre Miller out. And best of all, at least I didn't end up with Brendan Haywood, like Stephan did... or Darko, like Westy did... Chowtime gets the chance to add another keeper to his roster, if his team stays healthy enough so that he can carry Yao all year. I'm a bit surprised that the Bricks go with Brandon Rush, rather than getting their ASU guys, James Harden. The nickname stealer Yi has actually been putting up good numbers, so Robby may be getting a nice value here. And the last pick of the draft goes to the Jabrones: Anthony Morrow. Who the hell's Anthony Morrow? No, seriously. It took a while, but we finally got to a player that I had no idea what team they played for, where they went to college, what position they played. I realize that it's the Mr. Irrelevant pick, but still... who the hell's Anthony Morrow?

Okay. Now, I'm not going to get into the pre-season evaluations, yet, since this draft recap ran long. That post will come later this week, I think.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Concession Stand

I think that this just wasn't my year in baseball. I have to be honest, the 2009 edition of the O.N. Thugs baseball club was just mystifying to me, particularly my offense. Coming out of the draft, I knew that my strength was going to be my pitching, but I thought that my offense was going to be good, and competitive for top end points. Boy, I was wrong. Here's what I wrote in my draft recap:

I'm planning on having my way with SV, and the rate stats. I'll need to dig up another starter or two, but should be able to compete with W, L, and K, as well. Pitching projections don't work nearly as well, when you get into the counting numbers, but the goal is to get 60 points (out of a possible 72) from my pitching.

Well, I was sort of right. I started off really slow (Harden was really bad), and then Peavy went down. But for the last few months, I've had the best pitching (rate-wise), anchored by Lincecum, Carpenter, and Kershaw. Unfortunately, I just haven't had the W's show up. Doing a quick check of my starters, it's sort of sick. If you count up the unlucky outcomes (L's or ND's when they pitched well) and subtract out the lucky outcomes (W's or ND's when they pitched poorly), it's sick. Lincecum has been unlucky 9 times, and lucky 2 times. Carpenter has been unlucky 5 times, and hasn't been lucky. Harden has been unlucky 6 times and lucky once. And since I traded for him, Kershaw has been unlucky 7 times, and hasn't been lucky. Now, I understand that there's a greater likelihood of being unlucky (since the bullpen comes in and blows it) than lucky (where your offense bails you out), but these numbers just seem incredible to me. Instead of 7 games over .500, I can't help but wonder if this collection "should" have been something like 25 games over .500 (essentially with a couple fewer L's, and with about 15 more W's). That right there is 8 points in the standings, which would have put my offense at like 62 points, and still in competition for about 5 more points. I still think that some things will work out in my favor on this end, but the lack of W's has been a killer.

But not as much a killer as my offense. Back in April, I was somewhat optimistic.

My OBP will be good - should be around .375 this year, which should put me at the top of the league. And my SLG should be around .475, which should put me in the top 3, at least. I think that I can squeeze 225 HR out of this lineup, which will make me competitive. With this team 900 R should be a given. The RBI are a little more tenuous, with a projection of 870 RBI being reasonable. With SB, my starters should net me about 80 SB, but I have the option of getting steals w/ Tavarez and Lopez. The only question is how much other offense that will cost me. The goal is to get 52 points with the first 5 categories, and then to play SB by ear, and try to cheat my way to 5 points in SB.

First the good news. My team is slow, but I had enough speed to get my way to 5 points in SB, even w/out playing Tavaras or Lopez much (both of whom have been dropped). Also, I was dead on with my prediction about OBP. I'm leading the league at .376, and that's after a bad week of offense. So far, so good. Normally OBP correlates pretty highly with R and RBI. Unfortunately, I'm currently in 5th place or so in both R and RBI, and I think that I've juiced about all of the R and RBI I can get out of my OBP. Where I've gotten killed is with my HR,
specifically with David Wright, the Thome/Delgado pairing, and Russell Martin and Nick Markakis taking a step back (rather than making The Leap). Originally, I had guessed 225 HR, which would have been roughly 3rd in the league, based on historical numbers. I'm currently on pace for about 195, and this includes the Jorge Posada acquisition, and Derek Jeter and Josh Willingham contributing more than expected. You very quickly see why my offense has disappointed.

Quick breakdown, with projected 2009 totals, as well as reasonable guesses for the players coming into the season.

David Wright actual (projected 2009 totals): .400/.459, 95R, 12HR, 78RBI, 27SB
David Wright reasonable guess 2009: .395/.525, 110R, 35HR, 115RBI, 25SB

Russell Martin actual (projected 2009 totals): .356/.338, 65R, 8HR, 55RBI, 12SB
Russell Martin reasonable guess 2009: .370/.420, 85R, 15HR, 80RBI, 18SB

Nick Markakis actual (projected 2009 totals): .350/.460, 95R, 19HR, 110RBI, 15SB
Nick Markakis reasonable guess 2009: .380/.500, 105R, 28HR, 105RBI, 15SB

Missing stats from Wright/Martin/Markakis: .004 OBP, .020 SLG, 45R, 39HR, 57RBI, 4SB

We're talking 6 points in SLG, 4 in R, 5 in HR, 3.5 in RBI. 18.5 points right there. Don't get me wrong. Jeter's made up some ground for me (maybe .001 OBP, .002 SLG, 12R, 5HR, and 10SB). And the Willingham pickup helped me out. But when you give up that much ground from your top picks, you have to get lucky late in the draft.

You'll notice that in part 2 of the draft recap, I say that the key to winning is not whiffing on your first 3 picks. Out of my top 5 picks, only Lincecum performed up to snuff. I picked Wright 1st, Lincecum 2nd, Markakis 3rd, Peavy 4th, and Martin 5th. My first 3 hitters whiffed, and Peavy got hurt. That makes it really though to win. The way to make up for it is to hit with your late round picks. I managed to get a couple of those right, big time. George Sherrill has been awfully good, but lost a lot of value after being traded to the Dodgers. And Carpenter has been one of the best pitchers this year. However, where I really needed to hit big with with Thome/Delgado, since I needed the power.

Thome actual (stats when traded - 107 Games): .372/.493, 55R, 23HR, 74RBI
Delgado actual (stats until injured - 26 Games): .393/.521, 15R, 4HR, 23RBI

A reasonable projection for the two players combined would look like this:

Thome reasonable guess: .370/.490, 80R, 30HR, 95RBI
Delgado reasonable guess: .390/.510, 95R, 32HR, 105RBI

Of course this is assuming no injuries. But that's what you always assume. Naturally, you have to adjust your plans, if you need replacement players. I've had a knack for doing well in free agency in the past, so I sort of ignore the potential of injuries, I guess...

You can certainly discount some for injuries. But to only get 2/3 a season out of the 2 of them was tough. Had I gotten the 135 games out of each of them, that may have been enough to help out the rest of the offense to make up for the lack of production from Wright/Markakis/Martin. But that wasn't meant to be.

Anyway, if I hit my goals in pitching and hitting, I'm looking at 117 points, which should put me in a spot to compete for the league this year. Granted, those are optimistic goals, but I have a suspicion that the UPL Keeper Era will have a distinct O.N. Thugs flavor.

This doesn't seem like it's going to work out. In fact, I'm looking at a 4th place finish. Oh well. I guess that the major question is to figure out if this was just me being a little unlucky this year, or if my assumptions/projections were just off. I will grant that I tend to build me teams a little on the fragile side. I definitely play to win, and figure that 2nd place is no better than last place, so I take on more risk with injury-prone players. But really, the lack of production hasn't come due to injury from these sorts of players. Oh well. Back to the drawing board... well... in a couple weeks, anyway, when it's official that the O.N. Thugs aren't going for the Roland Slam in 2009...

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Correlation = Causation?

One thing that you hear all the time is that correlation does not equal causation. Basically, just because two things have outcomes that appear to be correlated doesn't mean that the underlying reasons for the outcomes are truly dependent. The lesson that you're supposed to take away from this is that just because you see a correlation, you shouldn't place too much weight on it, unless you can show causation.

So what the heck do you do when you have a very good conceptual argument for causation, but the correlation is nil?

A case study: 2008-09 O.N. Thugs, UPL Basketball.

If you think about the stats that we use (PTS, 3PM, FG%, FT%, AST, BLK, STL, REB, OREB, A/TO), you'd probably guess that 3PM and PTS would be correlated (though not necessarily in a super high way), and you'd figure that the accuracy stats would be correlated with PTS, and also that AST would be correlated with A/TO. But two categories should stand out: OREB and REB. Because each OREB is also a REB. So, if a player is a good offensive rebounder, then he'll likely be a good rebounder. in fact, it would be somewhat shocking if a team was very good at OREB, but bad at REB. Yet somehow, halfway through the season, I was something like 2nd in offensive rebounding (and had the highest rate by far), but was 9th in overall rebounding (with a rate that was about 7th). Eventually, things caught up a bit, and I finished 1st in OREB, and 4th in REB, but even that was a bit strange. So maybe it's reasonable to expect things to even out over time.

The current problem: 2009 O.N. Thugs, UPL Baseball.

If you think about the stats in baseball (R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, SLG, W, L, SV, K, ERA, and WHIP), the ones that you'd figure to be the most correlated are HR with RBI and HR with R, since each HR you hit guarantees 1 R and 1 RBI. And you expect a little lesser correlation between HR and SLG. But take a look at this:

Team	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG	RBI/HR	R/HR
'90 Reds	249	55	229	30	0.388	0.506	4.164	4.527
O.N. Thugs	256	47	253	43	0.397	0.471	5.383	5.447
IamJabrone	248	78	238	41	0.358	0.495	3.051	3.179
Westy's Sluggers	247	74	259	37	0.389	0.522	3.500	3.338
Black Sox	231	66	249	26	0.361	0.476	3.773	3.500
Cheeseheads	230	61	223	43	0.346	0.458	3.656	3.770
Muddy Mush Heads	239	51	195	54	0.360	0.444	3.824	4.686
IStillSuckCurveballs	234	58	244	14	0.382	0.489	4.207	4.034
Phatsnapper	189	54	219	23	0.346	0.456	4.056	3.500
TheJimmyDixLongballs	202	54	226	40	0.334	0.450	4.185	3.741
Benver Droncos	244	63	238	29	0.338	0.460	3.778	3.873
Hats for Bats	224	51	212	40	0.338	0.424	4.157	4.392

Somehow, I have managed to lead the league in R, and am a close 2nd in RBI. But I am dead last in HR. Compared to the Jabrones, I have 31 fewer HR, which means that I've managed to score 8 more R, despite giving away 31 R from my lack of HR. And historically, R:HR and RBI:HR ratios come in around 4 (just a quick glance suggests that 3.5 to 4.5 are reasonable values to expect. Note, the R:HR can be a lot further off, given the relatively less rare case of guys who score 90+ runs on only 10 or so HR (whereas someone like Adam Dunn, whose 100 RBI on 40 HR is about as low as you'd probably get). But overall, as you look at how UPL teams are put together, you see some stability in these ratios. And then you have the '09 O.N. Thugs, who are at about 5.4 to 1 for both R and RBI.

So what does this mean? I have no clue. Moving forward, you can either make the case that a) I'm due for a bunch of HR since my team is good, but just underachieving right now in power, or b) my team sucks and has been overachieving with everthing other than HR. I think that a) is more likely than b), although I'm definitely biased on this one.

I don't really know what to make of this right now, and will think about this more, but I definitely have had some interesting questions open up regarding how teams should be constructed, if you take a statistical look at the way the UPL is structured. Taking a look at some of these insights is interesting. For example, I'd bet that if you were to take a poll that asked fantasy players which of the 6 offensive categories would be the most useful in predicting fantasy success, you'd probably get HR as the overwhelming answer, with SB being the worst. However, my first look at the numbers suggests that if you were to use only one criteria in evaluating offense, you should look at RBI over anything else (though this is very preliminary, and restricted to historical UPL numbers).

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Headlines

I swear, I'm still in 5th grade, but I still laugh hysterically whenever I see a headline like:

Rays rough up Wang

You see, that's funny because Wang is slang for wiener, which is slang for penis, which is slang for Wang. Plus, it's funny because Wang got roughed up, which is slang for masturbation, which is slang for spanking the monkey.

It's also funny because I'm a moron.

Heh... I can already see Westy rolling his eyes and C-Lauff laughing hysterically...

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

Letting the Axe Fall

Well, I guess it was inevitable, but the company I work for banned the Yahoo Fantasy Homepage (and all team pages) from access while at work. Its a frustrating situation, but given the sheer amount of time most employees were spending on the fantasy webpage I'd say it was a necessity productivity-wise. So, a state of the Union, while I watch my season finally end...

League: ....Of Doom
Team: TheJimmyDixSpecials
Record / Points: 4-11 (10th place), 1111pts (3rd highest point average)
Summary: Losing 5 games by less than 8 points was rough. This league was a victim of its early success, as the waiver wire for TE's never got better than an injured Jeremy Shockey and my TE sucked but was still necessary. Neglect and focus on my other two leagues led to me leaving Reggie Bush in despite his injury for two weeks, two losses that eliminated me from the playoffs. The motto for next year will be that less is more - especially with limited time and internet access.

League: GFL
Team: Tatum Bell's Luggage
Record / Points: 7-5-1 (4th place), 1081 (7th place)
Summary: This is my money league, so I'm especially anxious to see how this weekend turned out. Like in the UPL, poor QB selection with high draft picks plauged my team the whole season long. Unlike my other leagues, the GFL maintained a strong sense of parity and the point spread remained tight.

League: UPL
Team: JimmyDixSpecials - various
Record / Points: 6-7 (8th place), 1825 (8th place)
Summary: Whew, what a bloodbath. Unlike other leagues, a late surge and luck alone secured my spot in the playoffs. The first few weeks were doomed as it quickly became apparent that my poor drafting of Steve Smith, Matt Hasselbeck and Carson Palmer was going to hurt me fast. Picking up Kyle Orton was blatant homerism - and a desperate move that paid off. Then, when he got hurt, I (apparently) tested the patience of the Fantasy Football Gods by grabbing Tyler Thigpen and letting the newbie play. Whatever. I made the playoffs. After a miraculous run in the previous playoffs - see post from the Chairman titled "The Worst Day of the Year" - I was content to let the season end, the Jimmy Dix mirroring the overperformance and luck of the 2008 Chicago White Sox season.

I might have a chance to win it all in my money league. I need Steve Smith to have a GAME.