Assumptions

I'm copying and pasting parts of an e-mail exchange that I'm having with Westy about some basketball stats. Mainly, it's me making fun of John Hollinger's power rating statistic, which has somehow become a fixture on ESPN.com. A second issue worth thinking about is how perfectly smart people (like Westy) can fall into common traps. Basically, on the front page of ESPN.com, there was this slick graphic that showed that the Heat were the top team in the NBA sofar, based on John Hollinger's Power Ratings. And of course, I thought that was crap.

My initial e-mail was intended to give a little ribbing to Westy about his love for "advanced" stats like the stuff that John Hollinger uses. Just one sentence and a picture from ESPN.com:

Westy - I guess that I see why you love your advanced stats and hate winning :-)

Note the "winning isn't everything" lead-in. We don't need wins; we have numbers with decimal points.

Also, note that this is before my man D-Will led a 4th quarter comeback, which in turn led to an upset of the Heat by the Jazz in OT.

Of course Westy's response is that Hollinger uses strength of schedule (SOS), with the idea being implied that a statistician like Hollinger wouldn't post anything as ridiculous as a 5-2 team being better than a 7-0 team, unless there was a good reason. To be honest, I had no idea what Hollinger's methodology was, other than it was spitting out shady results. So I took a peek at what was under the hood by looking at the methodology. And of course, I'm appalled.

So, I shoot off an e-mail to Westy. I make some smart ass comment about how going 4-0 against the Nets, T'Wolves and Sixers, while going 1-2 against the Magic, Celts, and Hornets clearly makes you the best team in the NBA. But more importantly, you notice that the Hornets have a higher SOS than the Heat, yet are ranked well below them by Hollinger (despite winning head-to-head). I'm OK with using margin of victory as a component in team evaluation, but you probably shouldn't use it straight up. At this point, I hadn't scrolled far enough down to see the actual equation being used, but I did see that the Hollinger starts off by talking about margin of victory, which suggests that's the major component of this ranking (which is what it looked like at first glance). Part of my comment to Westy:

Seems that Hollinger's first criteria is margin of victory, probably w/out any sort of cap or deeper view beyond the final score. In that sort of scenario, you're rewarded more for winning by 54 points against the T'Wolves and Nets and losing twice by "only" 3 and 8 points (only 2-2, but still +43), than you would be for, say, going 4-0 and winning by 9 points each game (+36). Don't get me wrong. Margin of victory/loss should count, but once you get beyond, say 15 points, you'd have to show me a strong case for why it matters.

Now, I'm sure that Westy didn't look at the Hollinger methodology very closely, and my guess is that he assumed that a statistician that's associated with the "advanced stat" movement wouldn't use a crude tool. At least, certainly not to the extent that I was insinuating. Westy suggests that Hollinger is actually using offensive and defensive efficiency, which would be the best (simple) predictor of team performance. Westy's probably right about how team efficiency stats would be a pretty good predictor, at least compared to the readily available stats. But the assumption is that Hollinger is using something that has built off of those stats.

I had a suspicion that Hollinger's stuff just couldn't be as useful as Westy was suggesting, with the results it was spitting out. So I went back to the explanation of the methodology. And sure enough, we see this:

RATING = (((SOS-0.5)/0.037)*0.67) + (((SOSL10-0.5)/0.037)*0.33) + 100 + (0.67*(MARG+(((ROAD-HOME)*3.5)/(GAMES))) + (0.33*(MARGL10+(((ROAD10-HOME10)*3.5)/(10)))))

Basically, here's what this equation says. Everyone starts with 100. Then, you look at strength of schedule, and measure how much it differs from .500. Then you divide this difference by 0.037 (no explanation for why he uses this number). Do this for the entire season, weighting it 2/3, and do this for the last 10 games, weighting it 1/3 (so that you're placing greater emphasis on the last 10 games). Also, note that he doesn't explain why he chooses the 2/3 and 1/3 weighting (or 10 games for that matter). Finally, you look at the scoring margin, and add an adjustment of 3.5 points for each game played on the road. Again, do this for the entire season, weighting it 2/3, and for the last 10 games, weighting it 1/3. Seems simple enough. But what does this really tell you?

Look at some recent NBA history, readily available on ESPN.com. Since 2002, NBA teams SOS at the end of the season will range from 0.484 to 0.514. The reason that everyone doesn't have a .500 SOS is that you have unbalanced schedules, and the certain conferences/divisions are stronger than others. But if you take the difference from 0.500, and then divide by 0.037, you find that SOS will impact a team's power rating anywhere from -0.378 to +0.432. Okay. So what?

Well, remember that we're starting off at 100 points. SOS impacts you less than half a point either way. So how do you get teams with ratings of 86.814 (the Wizards so far this year) and 116.15 (the Heat, before their loss to the Jazz)? Well, SOS can be a bit skewed right now, but even with a 0.600 SOS, the contribution to the power rating would only be about 2.7. The only other component is scoring margin. Again, if you look at the stats since 1999, you'll see that the lowest/highest scoring margins have been -11.5 and +10.2 points per game. Remember that SOS contributed somewhere between -0.378 to +0.432 points in power rating, we're seeing how scoring margin contributes about 25 times more. This suggests that over 96% of the power rating comes from scoring margin, and less than 4% comes from SOS. Basically Hollinger's power rating is just point differential with a slight tweak based on SOS. Not quite as advanced as something based on offensive and defensive efficiency.

As for the Heat, and their 116.15 power rating? So far this year, their SOS was a very high .595. Divide by .037, and you get 2.57. So, if 100 is the baseline, their SOS contributes 2.57, then their scoring margin contributes the other 13.58. If you place this in context, and look at the actual results, then the interpretation is that the Heat are the best team in the NBA because a) they've smoked the Nets and T'Wolves and Magic, and have lost two relatively close games. Now, if we were in a game where you took all of the points that a team scored in a season, and then subtracted the points that were scored on them, and then awarded a trophy to the team that had the greatest differential, then scoring margin by itself would be a great stat. But, in a game where you have discrete wins and losses, you really should capture the variance of margins in wins and losses. I'm not inclined to look in depth at creating these measures right now (mainly because I'm lazy). But you should be able to tell that once you look under the hood, this Hollinger power rating isn't quite as advanced as the the slick graphics and front-page placement on ESPN.com would have you believe.

In an ideal world, Westy would be safe in his assumption that something that makes the front page of ESPN.com as something from an "advanced stat guy" would be truly useful. Smart people would actually be putting together useful information that extends existing knowledge. Unfortunately, in our world, people have an incentive to sandbag on the truly useful stuff, and instead, we're exposed to the stuff that can fool most of the people most of the time. I'll give Hollinger the benefit of the doubt, and assume that he's got better stuff that he's keeping under wraps, hopefully because it's proprietary for some NBA team that he's consulting. In fact, he even admits that this power ranking needs some caveats. But I don't think that most folks think that it's as crude as I've (hopefully) demonstrated it to be. After all, when you see that the Heat are 116.150, and the Wizards are 88.814, you have all these decimal points that suggest that there's something smart going on under the hood.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

2010 UPL Baseball Mid-Season Report Cards - The Short Bus

To wrap up, let's take a look at the short bus. Note that these places in the standings have adjusted slightly from when I started giving out Mid-Season grades.

Cheeseheads - 10th Place

Strong Moves: Found a lot of offensive help in the draft (Adrian Beltre, Corey Hart, Vernon Wells). Unfortunately, this didn't address the major weaknesses of the team coming in, which was pitching. Got some much needed youth in Ike Davis. Found Kelly Johnson early, who's been very good at 2B. Got younger with Gavin Floyd, who has been good over his last 9 starts (after being dreadful to start the season). Found Clayton Richard and Ian Kennedy early on, both of whom are young and have been solid. Found John Axford, who seems to have a solid hold on the Brewers' closing role.

Boner Moves: Struck out with the arms in his draft. Gave up on Corey Hart way too early. Taking on Ibanez seems to be moving against the strategy of getting younger, as Granderson was younger (but has been on a downward trend the last few years).

Future Outlook: Huge question mark with the Miguel Cabrera trade, which is a classic high-risk, high-reward situation. Posey and Bard immediately step in and become legitimate starters, and both have super high ceilings. If Nathan comes back in 2011 as the closer, then the bullpen is stabilized, and some trade pieces can emerge. Chapman is a huge lottery ticket, that you won't find out about until half-way through 2011, at the earliest. In addition to these 4 players, there are some very solid veteran, keepers to build around longterm (Crawford, Tulo, Soto), as well as in a 2-3 year frame (Soriano, Wells, Pena) on the offensive side. Some decent, young pitching can also be built on (Cain, Richard, Kennedy, Floyd), and there are some closers to round out the roster (Soriano, Axford, Aardsma). Overall quality of the roster needs to continue to improve to move into podium contention.

Mid-term Grade: B. Is currently in the middle of getting younger. Has found some nice, young parts. But the grade probably should be an incomplete - the real result is what happens with Posey, Bard, Chapman, and Nathan.

Westy's Sluggers - 11th Place

Strong Moves: Drafting Bucholz, Loney, and Latos, which gives quality and youth. Picking up Ike Davis, and using him to get Beltre. Keeping Alex Rios from last year, who has been very good this year. Carl Pavano and Brett Myers have been solid veteran contributors. Finding a likely keeper C (Martin) at a low cost (a 3rd 2B in Kendrick).

Boner Moves: Giving up on Latos too early (while hanging on to questionable pieces - who the hell's Scott Baker?). Selling Matt Holliday too cheaply (and has been intent on doing so for a while, it seems). Moving their best pitcher (Lester) for Kinsler, who's redundant at 2B and only so-so at UTIL, without an obvious follow-up plan. Not addressing closer effectively enough in the draft.

Future Outlook: This roster needs an overall quality increase, and needs to get younger. Dotel, Pavano, Abreu, Hunter, Young, and Berkman are all 33+ this year. Lackey, Webb, Beltre, and Utley are 31. Myers is 30. Really, only Loney (26), Bucholz (26), Nunez (27), Martin (27), Kinsler (28), Sizemore (28), Rios (29) look to be keepers under 30, and none are exactly young anymore (and some of serious questions, like Sizemore). This means that some trades need to happen, otherwise, this team will be in purgatory.

Mid-term Grade: C-. The drop-off from 2009 is stark, though many of the players from 2009 had career years. An honest assessment of 2009 success should have prompted more urgency in the trade market, particularly with Abreu, Hunter, and Berkman. Got unlucky with injuries at 2B, so there wasn't a real opportunity to get value for Kendrick. But when C-Lauff starts mocking you and telling you to "Have fun in 19th place," then maybe you need to get things straightened out.

Muddy Mush Heads - 12th Place

Strong Moves: Found Mike Leake, who looks to be a nice, young arm. Rode some success from Carlos Silva, who has since cooled a bit. Has gotten solid pitching efforts from Benoit and Gorzelanny.

Boner Moves: Got off to a horrible start by gambling on Jermaine Dye as a keeper. Gave up on Chris Young way too early. Has dropped Cueto and Tommy Hunter, who have both been solid and are still young. It appears that the Derek Lee trade isn't going to be a winning one, as Jonathan Sanchez has continued his solid play.

Future Outlook: Probably should have rode Cueto and Hunter for longer stretches - those two would look awfully nice with Johan Santana, Phil Hughes, and Mike Leake as your starting rotation in 2011. This is a very old offense, with guys like Carlos and Derek Lee, Ichiro, Furcal, Brian Roberts, and Chone Figgins being relied on heavily. The only legit, young star on offense appears to be Joey Votto. There isn't enough value on Roberts or either Lee to get a worthwhile trade done. However, there may be some willing takers for the speed.

Mid-term Grade: C-. This team needed to have a major overhaul, and get at least a little lucky. Neither has really happened. In fact, the good moves are relatively small in magnitude, in comparison to the Cueto and Hunter drops.

Chicago Zambroneheads - 13th Place

Strong Moves: Acquired Matt Holliday and spare parts for Michael Young and Grady Sizemore, which has worked out very well. Solid production from Tyler Clippard, Mike Pelfrey, Jose Guillen, Alex Gonzalez, and Ty Wigginton, all of whom were found in free agency. Getting some speed from Scott Podsednik in the draft.

Boner Moves: Gave away David Ortiz, right before Papi righted the ship. Wasn't able to find any value for Ibanez. Bad draft restricted the ability to make trades to improve team. Has held on to Billy Wagner (who is retiring after this season) too long - the gameplan should have been to hope for a strong start from Wagner, and then move him out in May/June to get good value. Now, may not be able to get as much for a 2 month rental.

Future Outlook: There are always going to be hiccups with expansion, and this team needed to be perfect to get into the top half this year. The goal is to end up with 18 reasonable keepers, and try to attack in 2011 or 2012. The team started with about 10 or so of these players, and at this point, only have 8 or 9 on the roster, so this has been a bad opening set. Looking at ways to get value should be the key between now and the trade deadline.

Mid-term Grade: C-. Even if the moves had been perfect, there's a chance that this team could have been stuck in the bottom 1/3 of the league. But in reality, a few small wins was overwhelmed by one big mistake (Big Papi).

-Chairman (O.N. Thugs)

2010 UPL Baseball Mid-Season Report Cards - The Rest of the Pack

After the first cut of teams, there are about another 5 teams that are in the rest of the pack, led by last year's runner-up.

IamJabrone - 5th Place

Strong Moves: Strong draft, picking up young players who have performed (Santana, Posey, Bard), particularly at the tough-to-find C. Made a play for Andre Ethier who has been as advertised (though it cost Josh Johnson, who's been lights out). Has gotten above average production out of a less than ideal pitching staff, by finding some talent along the way (Cueto, Medlen, Simon)

Boner Moves: Who the hell's Buster Posey? Have also fed the O.N. Thugs Daniel Bard,a quality set-up man, and probable BoSox closer in 2012. Mystifying lack of moves by the front office, as guys coming off of 2009 career years have fallen back to earth (Reynolds, Hill). Has lost out on trade value, while holding on to extra 2B who aren't quite good enough to play at UTIL. Pinned SS hopes to Alcides Escobar, who has been bad, and hasn't changed course. Testing the theory that any offense with Albert Pujols will be competitive.

Future Outlook: Doesn't look like this team's got it for 2010, and it's hard to tell if they're rebuilding or if they're trying to compete. You don't get the impression that this roster is one that just needs a couple tweaks to win in 2011.

Mid-term Grade: C-. This team could have been a podium team, though asking for a championship may have been a bit much. But a reluctance to trade definitely has hurt the chances. Now, players like Aaron Hill and Ian Stewart are much less likely to get back enough value to matter this year. But the rebuilding seems to be somewhat muted. Stuck in-between is a tough place to be.

SuckmyKnuckleballs - 6th Place

Strong Moves: Has gotten the better end of the Gavin Floyd for Paul Konerko trade. Found potential SS of the future in Starlin Castro, who has performed reasonably so far. Excellent production out of Andy Pettite (2nd round draft pick), and has gotten good results out of other un-sexy veterans (Scott Rolen, Tim Hudson)

Boner Moves: Run into a couple tough seasons by a couple talented pitchers (Beckett, Burnett). Has held on to some under-performing vets that don't have much upside (Tejada, Cameron, Hoffman).

Future Outlook: If Beckett and Burnett get their heads on straight, and guys like Bay, Braun, and Matsui have big 2nd halves, this team could sneak onto the podium. But more likely, it's looking like a team that's headed for a finish between 4th and 8th.

Mid-term Grade: B-. This was a 5th place team last year, and has been in the same ball park this year. This suggests a pretty average grade.

'90 Reds - 7th Place

Strong Moves: No need to play Frankenstein at 2B, as McGehee has been solid. Has gotten enough production out of the Frankenstein at closer (Capps and Lindstrom). Taking a chance on Big Papi, who's looking like he's back to being a legit fantasy player. Getting enough production out of top set-up guys (Kuo, Storen, Gregerson) to get back into competition in pitching. Has found some young SP to perhaps rebuild staff (Travis Wood, Wade LeBlanc, Mat Latos).

Boner Moves: Believing that Bartlett's fluky 2009 would continue, and not having a backup plan. Using the 3rd overall draft pick on Octavio Dotel. Couldn't move any veteran SP who overachieved in 2009 (Javy Vasquez, Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson), and have been saddled with poor 2010 results (combined 19-25 with about a 4.60/1.35). No trades, despite the underperformance across the board?

Future Outlook: This is a team that's sort of in transition. There's some good young pieces (Gonzalez, Upton, Sandoval?). Some veterans in their primes (Ryan Howard, Victor Martinez), and some that you don't want to predict anything about (Manny, A-Ram, Papi).

Mid-term Grade: INC. This team has managed to pull itself up from the bottom of the standings to the middle of the standings. We'll see if this continues. A move into the top tier would make this year's grade an A, whereas staying in the middle of the pack makes it a C.

Benver Droncos - 8th Place

Strong Moves: Great trade in picking up Rasmus and Volquez for Upton. Has gotten a lot of production out of free agency (SP - Colby Lewis, Barry Zito, Trevor Cahill; Austin Jackson). Jon Rauch (4th round) has been helpful for SV.

Boner Moves: Cano for Weiters has been absolute disaster for 2010 chances, though this may balance out in the next few years. Jury is out on the Volquez for Neise trade. Dropped Jose Bautista way too early.

Future Outlook: Has been willing to make trades to get younger and give the team a shot in 2011 or 2012 - has turned Upton and Cano into Weiters, Rasmus, and Neise. Young A's arms (Cahill and Brett Anderson) could help anchor pitching staff, along with Ubaldo Jimenez, who's still only 26. Will need to sort out what they want to do with some vets (Jimmy Rollins comes to mind, but also Vlad, Kuroda, Zito, Victorino, and maybe even Morneau). Those pieces can probably fetch some solid prospects.

Mid-term Grade: B+. This was the last place team from 2009.

Black Sox - 9th Place

Strong Moves: Gotten all-star production out of Miguel Olivo and some SV from Kevin Gregg, both from free agency. Nice job moving quality for quality, getting Josh Johnson. Drafting Strasburg #2 was pretty much a sure thing, but still qualifies as a strong move.

Boner Moves: Not many moves made - the offense is above average, but could use one or two more pieces. Not so much of a boner move, but rather just taking some lumps with the young pitching, which has had ups and downs.

Future Outlook: Awfully good looking, young pitching staff (Johnson, Strasburg, Verlander, Romero, Billingsley), with a couple wild cards that could still pan out (Marcum, Joba, Kazmir, Matusz). This is a roster that's begging to be tinkered with in trade talks.

Mid-term Grade: B+. Last season's 8th place team has made a somewhat lateral move, but has stockpiled some serious arms, to complement the solid offense. Maybe a bit late to make a move for 2010, but the idea of being a podium in 2011 should entice some more moves.

Next time, we'll wrap things up by taking a look at the kids on the short bus.

-Chairman (O.N. Thugs)

2010 UPL Baseball Mid-Season Report Cards - Head of the Class

As we head into the back half of 2010 Baseball, there are some surprises at the top of the UPL, but the team currently sitting on top of the UPL is a very familiar one:

O.N. Thugs - 1st Place

Strong Moves: Drafting enough potential power so that 2 guys worked out (Glaus and Willingham). Working the waiver wire to improve squad ( lucking into Buster Posey; getting power out of Andruw Jones and Corey Hart; finding some arms like Brett Cecil, Jonathon Niese, Tommy Hunter, Johnny Cueto, Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden). Getting a Volquez lottery ticket for Jonathon Niese (though in 3 starts w/ Benver, Niese is 2-1, 3.55/1.18, with 25K in 25.1 IP). No panic trades after slow offensive start.

Boner Moves: Dropping Braden right before perfect game, and not afterwards. Hanging on to losing players too long, and as a result, cycling through high ceiling pitchers a little too quickly (Cueto, Cahill, Hunter), and not being patient enough w/ Thome.

Future Outlook: Still the team to beat, in 2010 and beyond. Still a number of fantasy points that the O.N. Thugs are legitimately chasing. There's enough roster flexibility left to take a couple shots at some talent, and to position team for future.

Mid-term Grade: A-. Still some work to be done. Position on top of the UPL looks somewhat tenuous in comparisons to some prior O.N. Thugs seasons. But you can't argue with the results to this point.

Hats for Bats - 2nd Place

Strong Moves: Drafted young talent, which proved to be useful in new UPL trade environment, which led to... Stealing Jered Weaver away from JimmyDix for Justin Smoak, at least for 2010 (jury will be out on this one until 2014 or so). Finding all sorts of young talent in free agency (Jamie Garcia, Brennan Boesch), as well as 2010 production (Jose Bautista, Chris Young, Aubrey Huff).

Boner Moves: Very unlucky, but the Heyward/Kendry Morales for Marlon Byrd/Jose Valverde/Adrian Gonzalez trade looks really lopsided for 2010 (though will probably look much better in 2011 and beyond). Aside from this, it's been a relatively boner-free 1st half. Dropped Hong-Chih Kuo, who has proven to be a plus-fantasy player, and real-life all-star.

Future Outlook: This is the team that Greg was hyping last year (saying that anything less than a podium-type performance would be disappointing), which never materialized until this year. Will be hard pressed to make up for the production lost w/ Morales, without hurting other stats

Mid-term Grade: A. Will have to balance future position w/ the chance to win in 2010. But a bunch of solid moves, with virtually no boner moves, have taken Hats for Bats up the standings, and shows that a rise from the bottom to the top is definitely possible.

Phatsnapper - 3rd Place

Strong Moves: Martin Prado in the 1st round of the draft worked out well. Absolute swindle of Robinson Cano (for Matt Weiters) before opening day. Shifted quality for quality, and picked up some speed with Brett Gardner (for Martin Prado). Picking up young talent in free agency (Delmon Young, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez).

Boner Moves: Not making a play for SV, which would make team legit championship contender. Rest of draft, aside from Prado was not very helpful. Probably sitting on a little too much potential on the bench.

Future Outlook: Quality young SP, and some top-end offensive talent makes this team a contender for the long-haul. This year, we're looking at somewhere in the top 4. But a little more management would go a long way.

Mid-term Grade: B. This team has largely managed itself since the start of the season, so the design of the team has been pretty good to be in podium position. But this team could easily be sitting on top of the UPL, so it's hard to give a higher grade.

JimmyDix - 4th Place

Strong Moves: Despite taking grief, Marlon Byrd in the 1st round has been a solid pickup. Getting Jon Lester for Ian Kinsler. Filling a hole at 2B by getting Martin Prado for Brett Gardner. Finding some quality in free agency (Gardner, Mike Stanton, Jim Thome, Tyler Colvin, Mike Leake)

Boner Moves: Giving away Jered Weaver, which has stymied some potential trade opportunities. Overpaying for B.J. Upton (Rasmus and Volquez). Dropping Mike Leake twice. Giving up a little too early on Andruw Jones. Giving up way too early on Corey Hart, Clayton Richard. Seems that day-to-day lineups are a bit sub-optimal, given how the overall offensive stats look.

Future Outlook: Pieces are on the roster for a top-4 finish in 2010, but may not have quite enough to make a run for the title. Positioned reasonably well moving forward. Probably not done making moves (and seems to make a lot of moves - some of which are brilliant, while others are awful...). But if you told me that this team would be a podium in 2011, I'd believe you, and if you told me that this team would be a bottom-4 team in 2011, I'd believe you, too.

Mid-term Grade: B. How do you average out a couple A-moves with a couple D-moves? I think that this grade is a reasonable one, given the rise in the standings from last year.

Next time, we'll move from the Head of the Class to the Rest of the Pack. And after that, we'll look at the Kids on the Short Bus.

-Chairman (O.N. Thugs)

UPL Baseball Draft : Ecclesiastes 3:1

It's interesting to see the different strategies that the various teams employed in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft. Obviously, with the start of the UPL keeper era, the draft takes on different meaning. First of all, the first round of the draft is really the 19th round... but that's a little misleading. In theory, the top prospects (like Heyward or Strasburg this year, who are probably gone by the 10th round if we were drafting fresh) who are available make the top of the draft much more valuable. And there are probably a handful of players who weren't top 18 on deeper teams who would have been 15th or 16th rounders. So there's some additional value there. The result is that there is a bit of a break point at the top of the draft, much like in football, where there's a handful of picks at the top who are worth a lot more, and then the next bunch of picks are worth roughly the same. So you get this interesting dynamic where trades matter, and swapping spots in a round could be a major issue.

But the thing that really makes this draft interesting is that different teams have very different goals. The teams at the top of the draft are probably looking to re-load, an probably should have a very forward looking approach. This is evidenced by Pauly's approach to the draft. On the other hand, teams looking to win, such as the '90 Reds, are looking for ways to round out their team. And folks like OD just go with the Best Red Sox Player Available strategy. And Westy posted on Facebook that his top 7 was: 1. Reimold, 2. Beltre, 3. Buchholz, 4. Loney, 5. Escobar, 6. Fowler, 7. Heyward. So this is evidence that some people don't use a strategy, so much as just guess blindly :-)

What makes it interesting is that these teams with very different goals are thrown into the same game, and some of the choices, which may be perfectly rational to one team, may be entirely nuts to another. In that sense, there's a time and a place for any strategy. And so long as you have a broader goal in mind, there's probably not a "wrong" move.

So here's how the O.N. Thugs' draft looked. You'll notice the lack of a 3rd round pick, and that I had lower than expected spots in the 4th and 8th. That was courtesy of my Kerry Wood trade, which we will know the results of in late May or June.

Round	Pick (overall)	Player
1	10	Aroldis Chapman
2	17	Travis Hafner
4	49	Troy Glaus
5	62	Josh Willingham
6	69	Skip Schumaker
7	88	Joe Nathan
8	101	George Sherrill

So what was the strategy? Well, the original plan was to go find some power, and to go old school... really old school. Not just in terms of older, players, but also the return to the O.N. Thugs' historical strategy of going with veterans. The idea is this. You build a base that will last for a few years, and then it's winning time. So this year, the plan was to find some undervalued hitters. Travis Hafner, Troy Glaus, Josh Willingham, and Adam LaRoche were high on the list. I also needed to pick up a 2B, but the pickings were slim. Martin Prado, Casey McGehee, Skip Schumaker, and Akinori Iwamora were the four that I was looking at. I didn't really have a preference for any of them, since I don't see Prado as a potential top 13 player (which is the magic number if we have future expansion), and probably not even a top 18. My plan was to just wait it out there. Finally, I had my eye on some of the less-heralded closers or potential closers (Capps, Dotel, Rauch, Perez, Madson, Sherrill, Bard) and a couple starters that I had on my roster at some point last season (Sheets, Latos, Marcum).

Now in terms of execution, drafting in the UPL has become a little less predictable than in the past. First of all, there are fewer auto-drafting teams (save for the O.N. Thugs when we sleep in), and the teams that are auto-drafting have generally pre-ranked players. And the other thing is that our preferences vary greatly from the Yahoo! pre-ranks. Part of it is our league format (6x6, 13 teams, 26-man rosters), and of course that we're a keeper league. So, players that would be "off the radar" in a public league may not be quite as "off the radar" as you may think. So whereas in the past, I'd often let the guy I really wanted slide a round, knowing that he'd still be there when I drafted again, I now tend to just grab the guy that I want now, and let things sort out afterward.

I had assumed that the top of the draft would go Heyward, Strasburg, Chapman, particularly since '90 Reds was, well, a Reds fan. I was ready to just pick Hafner, then get Glaus on the way back, and hope that Willingham would still be there in the 4th. So the draft starts off, and things go off like this:

Pick	Player	Team
1	Jason Heyward	Hats for Bats
2	Stephen Strasburg	Black Sox
3	Octavio Dotel	'90 Reds
4	Kevin Correia	Benver Droncos
5	Marlon Byrd	TheJimmyDixLongballs
6	Nolan Reimold	Muddy Mush Heads
7	Martín Prado	Phatsnapper
8	Adrián Béltre	Cheeseheads
9	Kevin Slowey	SuckMyknucklballs
10	Aroldis Chapman	O.N. Thugs
11	Clay Buchholz	Westy's Sluggers
12	Alcides Escobar	IamJabrone
13	Alberto Callaspo	Milwaukee Whiffers

It starts off as I had figured with Heyward and Strasburg, but then before the draft started '90 Reds was joking (or so we thought) about picking Dotel with the 3rd pick... and I was thinking to myself that I hoped that he wasn't joking... which he wasn't.

Then Benver goes with a relatively safe pick in Correia, who was probably the highest pre-ranked player left at that point.

JimmyDix makes a strange pick with Marlon Byrd, especially given that he hates the Cubs, who's been OK the last few years in a platoon role in TEX (figure that a conservative projection is something like .350/.450, with about 17 HR).

Reimold's getting a lot of hype, but was a 26-year old rookie last year who put up alright numbers (.365/.466 with 15HR in about 400 plate appearances).

Phatsnapper takes Prado, which basically settles the question of me drafting for positional need.

Now Adrian Beltre is an interesting pick, to me. He's 31 this season, had one great season in 2004 (which looks awfully suspicious now), and has a career .325/.453, and probably projects out to 25 HR, 80 R, and 90 RBI over 162 games. You can make a case for his numbers going up with the change in scenery (which I'm not entirely sold on), but I don't know if I'd go down that path. And then Slowey gets picked in the spot in front of me.

Slowey's a 26-year old pitcher, with a career 4.39/1.28 with just under 7 K/9 (though he went 10-3).

Now with all of these players who were picked 3 through 9, I don't see the potential for a top 18 status. And frankly, I didn't see it with the players who I was targeting... so when Chapman falls into my lap at #10, I'm pretty happy. I had to do a double-take to make sure that it was actually the case. But sure enough. He was there. So, it takes the O.N. Thugs roughly 4 minutes to abandon the plan of getting some veteran power, and jumping on Chapman. Now, I certainly don't expect Chapman to be a major contributor for the O.N. Thugs this year (or even in the first part of 2011). But I get to have a free look at him, and will probably keep him on as a keeper, so that I'll really have a 2-year look at him as a potential cog in the machine. The expanded rosters make hanging on to these prospects a real possibility, which was precisely why we expanded to 26-man rosters.

So, my concern turned toward getting some potential power on the roster. The first order of business was to lock up Hafner with the 2nd round. After that, I had a bit of a wait on my hands. I was hoping that I could get either Glaus, Willingham, or LaRoche in the 4th. It turns out that all 3 were still available. I figured that Glaus would be last one picked by someone else, but he was the one that I thought had the biggest upside (career 162-game averages are .360/.500, 35HR, 96R, 101RBI), but was underpriced because of his age and his injury. So Glaus goes my way in the 4th. At that point, I was pretty happy because the odds were that Willingham or LaRoche would still be available when I picked in the 5th. And sure enough, when my turn comes back, both are available, so I go with Willingham, who I like quite a bit, and actually considered keeping in my top 18 (he's basically Brad Hawpe, only he plays in a pitcher's park and not Coors Field).

Now, at this point, I'm pondering my options. The pitchers that I had at the top of my list considered were basically gone. I still didn't have a 2B, and we were down to Schumaker and Iwamura at that point. So, I had to figure out whether I wanted to go after LaRoche and hope that one of my 2B would still be there next time I was picking. Now, I was somewhat lucky because I was going to have 2 picks before C-Lauff would pick again. I had joked about maybe just not playing a 2B, and C-Lauff may have messed with me by picking up extra 2B with his roster space (I did this to him a couple years ago in football, after his QB went down, I picked up the next 2 highest rated free agent QB's just to mess with him). But I also had '90 Reds messing around with his "Frankenstein" strategy for RP and 2B, where he was just drafting random players in the hopes of cutting off body parts and sewing them back together to make a reasonable player. So I was a bit worried that he may have just gone with Schumaker. It turns out that I probably panicked a bit, when I picked Schumaker in the 6th, rather than LaRoche, since Iwamura didn't get drafted at all. Oh well. Relatively small price to pay.

What was interesting was that as I was taking my time on this pick, I noticed that Joe Nathan was available. This was problematic. Jeff had actually wanted Nathan as one of his 2nd wave expansion picks, but I had messed it up. So, I was hoping that Nathan would fall to me, so I could grab him and offer him back to Jeff for the player that I had accidentally placed on his team. I didn't really want Nathan, but figured that it was the right thing to do. We'll see if Jeff wants him or not. Now what's funny is that since then, I've had some inquiries about Nathan. The plan is to just stash him on the DL and see how his rehab looks next spring. But I suppose that a trade wouldn't be a terrible option.

My last pick ended up being George Sherrill. This was a total guess. But, he was on my radar because he played really well for me last year, though his value plummeted after he got traded to LAD to be the set-up man. But, there's always the chance that he could be traded off to MIN or somewhere else where they need a closer.

Now, as you look at my list of picks, I think that it makes sense for my team, which looks to be good with pitching, but needed some bats to put me over the top. I don't have the luxury of waiting for prospects like LaPorta, Gamel, etc. Hafner, Glaus, and Willingham are going to be batting 4 or 5 for their teams. Typical numbers from that spot in the batting order project out to at least 90RBI, and they're are all pretty high OPS guys, so that should bode well, if they get playing time.

Of course, these players, save Chapman, probably don't make a lot of sense for a team that is looking to rebuild, like Hats for Bats, Benver Droncos, JimmyDix, etc. So that adds an interesting wrinkle. You're likely drafting against the teams that have the same goals as you, but even then, the specific needs are probably different enough so that you aren't really competing for the same players. Even with me and '90 Reds needing 2B, our drafts were probably like ships passing in the night, with the possible exception of Casey McGehee, who I had on my radar - even the closers were gone before I would started thinking about them.

So when you take a step back and see these wildly different takes on a draft, you really have to put it back into context and realize that "optimal" choices are based on a lot of assumption. I think that they key assumptions are whether or not your team is in contention or rebuilding, and how many of the keeper slots you have filled up. If you've only got like 12 firm keepers, then you can take more chances on players who may be keeper material. But if your team runs deep, and you're looking to win? Keeper status probably isn't your concern, unless something falls into your lap, like Chapman did in my case. In all honesty, most of the players that Pauly listed on his top 30 weren't even on my radar, simply because I'm needing stats now. For example, had my team been a great hitting, so-so pitching team, a player like Andy Pettite, who Pauly would absolutely never draft (and rightfully so) would absolutely be on my radar, and probably relatively high on my radar.

Now what's really interesting is when you see some teams that you'd figure to be looking to win, instead draft like they're rebuilding. As I look through the drafts, I'm a bit surprised at how much youth Westy and C-Lauff took on. That either means that they really think that their top 18 is golden, or they're looking to rebuild. Either way, I don't think that's an optimal way to go, if they're trying to win now. Obviously, Greg spent a lot of time filling holes, looking to win now. On the other hand, Rupert's draft (which I believe was auto-drafted) tells me that he either is trying to add veterans to win now, or that he just didn't pre-rank players and got stuck w/ the computer's picks. OD appears to be happy to continue his strategy of picking Red Sox players, along with a couple vets along the way.

On the flip side, some teams that were definitely in rebuilding mode, didn't really continue that path in the draft. JimmyDix is a prime example, though his team is quickly moving into contender territory, with his acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez and (soon) BJ Upton. So maybe he's looking to get into the top 4 this year. But the Milwaukee Whiffers' draft didn't really do much to help him rebuild. Nor did the Cheeseheads' draft. But teams like Benver Droncos, Hats for Bats, and the Black Sox seem to have helped along their rebuilding processes in this draft. And in a vacuum, I'd like the Mush Heads' draft, though I'm not sure how good of a draft it was for a rebuilding team.

As for the O.N. Thugs? We're always convinced that we're going to win, even when we're in 10th place at the all-star break :-) But I think that between Hafner, Glaus, and Willingham, I'll get 2 good performances, which will go a long way into putting my offense back in the top half of the league. Though to be honest, much like last season, Wright/Markakis are going to be the major factors. If both are good, then I've got the inside track. If only one is good, then I'll need to get creative. And if neither is good, then it will be really, really hard to get back into the winner's circle.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

The Sins of the Past

Recently, longtime UPL owner Jeff posed the question of why his team was so bad:

Jeff: Why does IamJabberjaw's team suck so badly? Please, help me!

Naturally, this had to become a UPL post.

My thoughts:

Dear Jeff,

My friend, you are paying for sins of years past. Well, last year's, past...er... sins... yeah.

Last year, you got really, really unlucky with your first 2 picks (Brand and Baron Davis). Your 3rd round pick was Calderon, who was traded for Okeafor, who you ended up not keeping (but has been pretty decent this year). Your 4th pick was J-Rich who has been really disappointing in PHX. Your 5th pick was Okur, whose numbers have also been way off the last 2 years. Your 6th pick was Biedrins, who you've since let go, and who was running the Nellie Curse. And your best draft pick was Derrick Rose in the 8th, who you traded for Eric Gordon (a good keeper) and Michael Beasley (who you didn't keep, probably rightly so).

So not only did you get unlucky with the top two (who you need to anchor a team), you're 4th, 5th, and 6th picks have underachieved. And you probably made a bad trade moving D-Rose.

This means, that coming into this year, you were already stuck behind the 8-ball. Normally, when you fill up your list of 8 keepers, there are a couple players that are absolutely obvious (think, LBJ, Wade, Kobe, Dirk, etc.) - the guys who would be drafted in the first 2 rounds of a non-keeper league. You didn't have any of those guys, so you started at a huge disadvantage. Instead, you had about 10 guys who would have been picked between the 4th and 10th round of a non-keeper draft. That makes it really hard to win this year.

But there's good news. You have a chance, moving forward, to right the ship.

Brooks, Ariza, and Landry have been pretty good for HOU, especially w/ them giving up on T-Mac. That's a good thing for you. Brooks and Ariza probably stay really strong when Yao comes back, though Landry's value next year may go down. Count this was a win.

You made a strong trade for Joakim Noah, who's looking to be a 3rd round pick in non-keeper drafts next year, and is probably your best big. This also counts as a win for you. Your other strong big is Al Harrington, who puts up nice numbers in the Knicks system (18.5 and 6, with some 3PM). So he alleviates pressure on your 3PM. In fact, you have a lot of excess 3PM to trade. You should definitely try to do that.

Eric Gordon's proving himself to be a legit pro, and is a good 3PM guy. That's also good. He's a keeper. Now, you also have a couple other players who are a lot like Eric Gordon, in fantasy terms (Ben Gordon, J-Rich, Jamal Crawford). Can you get any value from these guys? Ben Gordon's the most reliable of the bunch, but is stuck in a strange Detroit situation. J-Rich has a ton of upside, but is the 3rd or 4th option in PHX (behind Nash, Amare, and probably Grant Hill) Crawford is playing well, but comes off the bench.

You've got a couple bigs you have to make decisions on in Nene and Okur. And similarly, you have to figure out what to do with Bibby, Harden, and Morrow.

Now, it should be clear where your rosters is anchored: Eric Gordon, Joakim Noah, Aaron Brooks, and probably Trevor Ariza. The efficiency is suspect, but your hustle stats will be solid. This leaves 4 slots, give or take, and you still need to fill with keepers. The thing to remember is that when you're drafting next year, you're drafting no worse than a 9th rounder. So, the goal is to get as many players who should be 8th round picks or better.

This means, that as the season progresses, players may get dropped because they're hurt. You need to be all over that (for example, if someone like T-Mac or Yao gets dropped, they're great to have on your roster, since you have a ton of flexibility). This also means that you should continue working the trade game, big time. There are definitely teams that could use some 3PM, in the form of Ben Gordon, J-Rich, Crawford, Okur, or maybe even Bibby. You should target younger players with high ceilings, even if they haven't achieved a ton, yet. Basically, you need to hit a home run or two, and it doesn't really matter that much if you strike out. Guys like Gordon, Crawford, etc. will be available in the draft next year.

I think that overall, the question that anyone has to ask themselves is if their team is building or if their team is contending, because there are two very different strategies for these two scenarios. (Note, there could very well be more than these 2 modes, but let's keep things simple for now). If you're building, your goal is to maximize the number of obvious keepers on your roster. If you're contending, you're shopping for parts. So, if you're a builder, then you need to market your parts faster than the other builders, and you need to look for potential keepers in return.

For example, if you offer the Jabrones, say, Ben Gordon for Gilbert Arenas or Anthony Randolph, he may look you up on that. Your roster is in a much better spot to take on a question mark than his is. He's looking to win a title (however misguided that attempt is), so he may sell a piece of the future for a shot now, if it gives him roster flexibility. Take advantage of that.

Best of luck in your future endeavors.

Warmest regards,
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Basketball Preview (Part III)

For the third part of the 2009-10 UPL Basketball Preview, we're going to use a slightly different format than we did in Part I and Part II, which looked at the 7 teams that were likely to contend this year. We'll take a brief look at each team's 2009-10 outlook, along with some fantasy stat projections. But we'll take a little more time looking at more strategic considerations, rather the more tactical considerations that were the focus of the first two parts of the UPL preview.


Floor Burns:
Last year's 8th place team. UPL veteran, though not a regular podium team.

2009-10 Outlook:Not likely to finish in top 4. Many question marks revolving around real-life playing time and roles on offense (Duhon/Nate Robinson, Millsap, Richard Jefferson, Capt. Jack, Marion, Odom, 'Sheed, Varejao). Kevin Martin is looking like legit scorer (though currently injured). Joakim Noah seems to have emerged as a 10 and 10 sort of guy, who chips in STL and BLK, as well. Probably should have kept Rodney Stuckey (currently about 17PTS, 6REB, and 4AST per game).

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): 3PM
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, PTS, OREB, REB, STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%, AST, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 58 points. May be able to move some 3PM to get help. Needs major help at PG.

Who is the Core?: Kevin Martin, Joakim Noah, Lamar Odom, and Mo Williams? If these guys are the ones to build around, then this is not an ideal core. However, they are the best players, and thus, the most attractive trade pieces. If you can get 2 Tremendous Upside Potential (TUP) guys in return on a trade, you probably have to make the move (particularly if it's Odom).

The Deadweight: There probably needs to be a roster purge. 'Sheed's value is nil, save for teams desperate for 3PM. Duhon's offense is atrocious, and Nate Robinson has fallen out of favor in NY. Foye and Barbosa are playing reserve minutes, and putting up reserve stats. These players have little trade value, but are taking up valuable roster space.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: May need to play the timing game, to sell some of the question marks when they're hot. Unfortunately, Capt. Jack's trade to Charlotte probably hurts his fantasy value, since GS played with a very high tempo. Also, Shawn Marion's value has just fallen through the floor since he left PHX. Millsap hasn't had the playing time with Boozer back in the Utah lineup. If these players can be moved at a reasonable price, then there shouldn't be any sentiment with these guys.

Recommended Moves: Build around Kevin Martin and Joakim Noah. Find a taker for Mo Williams and/or Lamar Odom. Someone will take a chance on 18 PTS, 4AST, and 2.5 3PM per game on good efficiency. And 9 PTS, 10REB, and 5AST is a nice balance, and could easily find a place on a team with good scoring. You should be able to get 3 TUP guys out of these two, preferably at least one PG in that mix. Try to find a taker for Duhon or 'Sheed, which actually may be possible, given their strength in AST and 3PM. The goal is to end the season with 5-6 clear keepers, and then use the draft to continue the rebuilding process, with a chance at the podium 2011-2012.


Milwaukee Bricks:
Last year's 9th place team. UPL veteran, typically a middle of the pack team.

2009-10 Outlook: Of last year's bottom 4, this team is probably the most stable, but not a ton of upside (not super likely to challenge for a crown soon). Keeper core provide a solid base in PTS and 3PM. However, there is a lack of depth everywhere else. Has already dropped one keeper, Andris Biedrins. Was probably helped in this year's draft more than any other team (Ben Gordon, Jamal Crawford, Kendrick Perkins, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks). Baron Davis and Elton Brand are HUGE question marks. Ironically, Davis signed with the Clip to play w/ Brand, only to have Brand bail and sign in Philly. I wonder if the Bricks are tempting basketball fate by playing them together.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): 3PM
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, PTS, STL,
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%, OREB, REB, AST, BLK, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 55 points. May be able to move some 3PM to get help. Needs major help at PG.

Who is the Core?: A major issue is that there are a lot of guys who are pretty good, but not great scorers, but don't really help w/ REB or AST. The best of the bunch is Eric Gordon, because he is so young. After that there needs to be some educated guesswork. Ben Gordon is only 26, and is probably a 2nd piece to build around. Problem is that these guys don't help across the board. Trevor Ariza is a nice addition for hustle stats (and has been scoring well this year), but his FG% is concerning. Baron Davis and Elton Brand (an ironic pair, given their problems with each other in real life) are huge question marks, and you have to figure out whether you can build around them.

The Deadweight: Perhaps surprisingly, there aren't a ton of guys that you look at on this roster, and just say, they don't belong. Guys that I'm not personally fond of are Jamal Crawford (16 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST on 44.5% shooting), Jason Terry (17 PTS, 3REB, 3 AST, on 42.8% shooting) and Chuck Hayes (6 PTS, 7 REB, 2 STL, and 50% FT shooting), but even they're not terrible, and could be situational plays.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: Obviously, decisions on Baron Davis and Elton Brand are crucial. See if you can't more either Crawford or Terry (or ideally, both), and get a couple TUP guys. You can't really win with those guys both playing major minutes for you. Jason Richardson is a mirage - 17 PTS, 2.5 3PM, and 6 REB isn't bad, especially for a good FG% guy. But the lack of AST, STL, and BLK strain the rest of the lineup. Okur is 30 now, and seems to be a 15 and 7 guy, not a 18 and 9 guy, but getting some 3PM from your C spot is nice. I don't know if you want to build around that. Must upgrade a big - hard to win with Landry as your PF.

Recommended Moves: Banking on Baron Davis and Elton Brand isn't the worst thing in the world. Davis' FG% is below 40%, but he's still putting up 16 and 7 and has a high A/TO. If you can get a legit big, then move Davis, but no need to panic there. Brand finally showed some signs of life with a huge game (19 and 11, w/ 6 BLK, 7 OREB, and 3STL). Hang on to Eric Gordon, and try to move Okur, JRich, along with Crawford/Terry/Hayes/Landry. If the right deal comes along for Ben Gordon, he could be had, as well. Moving into next year with a core of Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Aaron Brooks, Ben Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Elton Brand, and a couple upgraded bigs wouldn't be the worst thing int he world. This team could compete for a top-half finish next year.


Love T'Wolves:
Last year's 10th place team. UPL veteran, but no UPL podium time (though has been the #1 seed going into football playoffs).

2009-10 Outlook: This team is the most likely to rise from the bottom of the league into the top half, and of the non-O.N. Thugs teams, I would rate Love T'Wolves as being one of the 4 most likely to win a UPL championship within the next 3 years (with Sparty, elder Westy, and Chowtime). Great building blocks in Bosh, Durant, and Rondo, who anchor PTS, REB, and AST. Less reliable as a person, but very reliable in fantasy is Zach Randolph who just goes along for 20 and 10 on good efficiency every year. Currently have some stopgaps, like Andre Miller and Larry Hughes, who aren't going to be keepers down the road. If this team can figure out who the next 4 keepers are, particularly if they bring in quality guards into the fold, this will be a high upside team moving forward.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): OREB, REB
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FG%,FT%, PTS, STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): 3PM, AST, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 66 points. This number could easily go up, with a couple moves, particularly at G.

Who is the Core?: This is much more easily answered, and frankly, this core is right up there with anyone else in the league. Bosh, Durant, Z-Bo, and Rondo give you a nice start, particularly since Bosh and Durant make up for Rondo's lack of scoring. Rudy Gay is a scorer, and right on the cusp of being a legit keeper, but his AST and A/TO numbers keep him from being an obvious keeper. Thompson and Beasley have all sorts of upside, given their youth. And of course, the team's namesake, Kevin Love is still coming off injury and hasn't played this year.

The Deadweight: Josh Howard and Ronnie Brewer don't seem to be good enough to justify roster spots right now. And hanging on to injured players like Howard (and Love, and Yi), also restrict flexibility. But there aren't exactly obvious moves to be made.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: There's a bit of a wait-and-see going on w/ guys like Gay, Love, (I wanted to make sure that we put Gay, followed by Love, here, in that order), Villanueva, Beasley, and Yi. So, the moves need to wait until we get a better picture of how these guys will play out.

Recommended Moves: The best option may actually be to try to move Zach Randolph to get legit quality at G. This is especially the case if you think that Jason Thompson or Kevin Love project out to be roughly on par with Z-Bo in 2 years. Similarly, moving someone from the Villanueva, Beasley, and Yi trio to get an upside G is a winning move. Could potentially overpay for a 15 PTS, 5 AST guard, and have it be a net win, if it's a younger guard. The core of Bosh, Durant, Rondo, Thompson, Gay, Love, the best of Villanueva/Beasley/Yi, and a quality guard looks to be a nice core for the coming years.


Phatsnapper:
Last year's last place team. UPL veteran, a feast (1 UPL Baseball Title) or famine owner, with more famine than feasts.

2009-10 Outlook:Not likely to finish in top 4. Major question mark is how involved the owner will be. Nice core of Nash, Amare, Ray Allen, Jamison, and Bogut. Drafting Redd, Deng, and Maggette is helpful. TJ Ford appears to be a keeper bust, while Chandler and Kenyon Martin are sort of borderline. This team really needs the 25 and 9 version of Amare, not the current 19 and 8 incarnation. However, Nash seems to have found the fountain of youth, and it would do wonders if nash could share w/ Allen and Jamison. Deng is having a nice bounce-back year, as is Maggette. Jamison and Redd's injuries have killed the start of the season.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, 3PM, PTS, OREB, REB, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): AST, STL, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 58 points. Actual projections are discounted, due to lack of owner involvement.

Who is the Core?: Can you really build long-term around Nash, Allen, and Amare? And Allen's scoring is down to about 15 points. Redd and Jamison seem to be keepers, but are on the wrong side of 30, and have injury histories (though Jamison has been pretty healthy since his first couple years in the league). Bogut and Deng are both young, and still have a lot of upside, despite being nicked up thus far in their careers... lots of injury-related questions here.

The Deadweight: There needs to some editing of the roster. You can't really play TJ Ford or Z right now, nor do they have trade value. DeRozan and Courtney Lee have some upside, but you can't leverage that right now, since they're just not putting up the numbers.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: Need to get younger and have less exposure to injury risk. You've got another 2 years to milk out of Nash, maybe 3 out of Allen and Jamison. The problem is that the rest of the lineup isn't good enough to compete. Probably need to keep the core of Deng, Bogut, and Amare.

Recommended Moves: Get quality in return for Jamison, Ray Allen, and Michael Redd, particularly young, quality guards. Ride Nash for the next 2 years, since he'll stabilize your AST numbers, and hope that he'll play for a couple years after that. Build on Nash, Amare, Deng, and Bogut, and the guards that you trade for, with the goal of having 7 legit keepers at the end of this year, with 2 guards to put around Nash. This team probably can built to compete faster than Floor Burns or the Bricks, but isn't nearly as likely as Love T'Wolves to threaten the UPL powers-that-be.

UPL Basketball Preview (Part II)

We are continuing on with our UPL Basketball Preview. Part I took a look at last year's podium teams. Now, we're going to look at 4 teams that appear to be contenders for the UPL podium.

IAmJabrone:
Last year's 4th place team. UPL Career Triple Crown (2005 Hoops, 2008 Baseball, 2008 Football). Generally expected to finish 2nd or 3rd, and generally expects to finish 2nd or 3rd.

2009-10 Outlook: Strong keeper core, based on Yahoo! pre-rank. Anchored by legit fantasy superstar D-Wade (who mysteriously fell to 9 in the original keeper draft). Keepers may be top-heavy (variability with Horford and D-Rose, production decline and lack of shooting ability from Josh Smith). Carmelo may put up over 30 PPG in high tempo Denver system. Current roster has an extreme lack of depth (Anthony Randolph was somewhat strange 1st draft pick, Sessions is not playable, Lawson is young and a reserve, T-Mac is out)

Potential Injury Impact: High. D-Wade, Gilbert Arenas, Jermaine O'Neal, Rip Hamilton are all being counted on, and all are injury prone players. T-Mac was a lottery ticket, but is out for at least the first month.

Positional Battles: Not many, due to roster composition. May be tempted to play Anthony Randolph, as he was #1 overall pick in draft this year.

Book a UPL Title If: Everyone stays healthy. Josh Smith's regression was a fluke. Anthony Randolph is legit.

Life Becomes Easier If: Horford and D-Rose both continue to improve. T-Mac comes back healthy in December. Carmelo's early season play is for real.

Will Go Down in Flames If: D-Wade goes down. Can't get help in free agency.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): PTS, AST
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FG%, OREB, REB, BLK, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FT%, 3PM,
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 66 points. Range from 60 to 72. Likely top half team, but lack of depth will make trading a more difficult option. Will need more luck than usual to make a legit run.


Westy's Balltastics:
Last year's 5th place team, who still can't believe they didn't win. 2-time UPL Basketball Champ (2003, 2004). Typically a top 4 UPL team. Has difficulty in trade talks, often due to poor application of game theory or human psychology.

2009-10 Outlook: Strong top-6 keepers. Then team talent falls off, as evidenced by keeping Luis Scola. Lots of help in the draft, particularly with Marc Gasol and Channing Frye's early play. Will have a solid core, though there may be a lack of elite scoring. May run into issues with real-life playing time w/ Conley and AI. 3PM will hinge on Channing Frye. Will have a lot of flexibility in playing for specific stat categories, and has bigs to move. Lack of obvious quality at PG.

Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Top 2 players (Al Jefferson and KG) are coming off injury, and need to be healthy. Caron Butler and Devin Harris always seem to be nicked up, but never too major. However, team is relatively deep and has statistical flexibility save for AST.

Positional Battles: Competition between Conley/Iverson/Bibby for at least 1 starting spot. May need to fill 2 spots w/ Gasol/Scola/Frye.

Book a UPL Title If: Al Jefferson is healthy and as effective as last year. KG hasn't aged in dog years.

Life Becomes Easier If: Gasol and Frye continue to play as well as they have. Another PG emerges, either from roster, free agency, or trade.

Will Go Down in Flames If: The manager misplays roster. Injury bug hits again

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, STL
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, PTS, OREB, REB, AST, BLK, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 71 points. Range from 68 to 81. Should get back on to podium after last year's collapse. Legit contender, w/ enough roster flexibility to get extra points, but no 1st tier start to ride. Upside potential as high as anyone else in league.


Chowtime:
Last year's 6th place team. Typically a top-half UPL team. Has 2 podium finishes, both of which came at the expense of Westy on the last day of the season.

2009-10 Outlook: Top 4 keepers are ranked ridiculously high (Dirk, Granger, Gasol, Vinsanity). Then team talent falls off dramatically. Needed help in the draft, and got it when teams fell asleep at the wheel (or bet on Anthony Randolph), netting Blake Griffin. Yao, Flynn, and Curry are potential keepers, but may reduce the ability to win this year. Team should be really efficient, but may not have enough of the counting stats.

Potential Injury Impact: Huge - already happening. Yao takes spot, and reduces flexibility. Vinsanity is always nicked. Griffin has been hit with the Clipper Curse. Gasol hasn't played, yet. Already may be forced to surrender games played at C. If anything else bad happens, may not be able to recover.

Positional Battles: Ideally, between Flynn and Curry, you only play 1, but both are being forced into action. Ditto for Thaddeus Young, Battier, and Blatche.

Book a UPL Title If: Kaman keeps up the 22 and 10 pace. Yao somehow comes back this year and is good. Griffin, Curry, and Flynn are 1-2-3 in ROY voting.

Life Becomes Easier If: Injuries let up.

Will Go Down in Flames If: There isn't a real change soon - it's hard to carry 4 injured players on a 14 man roster. All 10 of the other guys have to stay healthy, and they all have to be good!

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, FT%, 3PM, A/TO
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): PTS, AST, STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): OREB, REB
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 72 points. Range from 62 to 82. Legit contender, but may not be able to get help w/ a trade. If Blake Griffin comes back and is putting up 8+ rebounds per game, that could change the calculus very quickly. Things could go south for this team, more so than others.


SuckMyDribblingBalls:
Last year's 7th place team. Typically a top 4 UPL team, but stopped actively managing team last year, due to the presence of craz Mexican in the house. Now that the divorce is final, should have more time to manage team.

2009-10 Outlook: Strong in the middle, with Duncan and Howard anchoring REB and BLK. Adding on Oden and Okafor essentially locks up BLK, with one of the two looking like attractive trade bait. Kobe will help with points, but it may not be enough, if you need to carry Kidd and Oden in the lineup (both at about 8 PPG). Unhealthy fascination with Rudy Fernandez, who probably should not have been kept - Jeff Green would have helped this team immensely.

Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Obviously, Kobe must stay healthy. Lots of depth with the bigs, but is thin at guard. Really dependent on Kidd for AST and A/TO. Grant Hill is old, Duncan is getting old, Okafor and Oden are injury prone. Things could go downhill very quickly.

Positional Battles: Ideally, either Felton or Augustin step up and become legit fantasy options. Also, Okafor or Oden (probably don't want both starting)

Book a UPL Title If: Kobe is Kobe. Dwight Howard learns a 2nd low-post move. One of the extra bigs is traded for a legit 3PM and AST option.

Life Becomes Easier If: Both Felton and Augustin emerge as legit options. Tayshaun Prince finally makes The Leap. Okafor gets along with CP3.

Will Go Down in Flames If: Injury to Kidd or Kobe. Keeps playing Rudy Fernandez too mcuh.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, OREB, REB, BLK
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): PTS, AST, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FT%, 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 72 points. Range from 65 to 79 points. Team will be very good in rebounding and blocks, but needs help scoring. Should be able to move a big and get some stats back in return.