Keeper Rosters and One Team's Thought Process

So, this won't be as amusing as my take on the Iranian elections, but the NBA free agency period makes for some interesting dynamics on your keeper decisions. And just for reference, here are the final rosters from last season.

European Sellouts	O.N. Thugs	Sparty Rules
O.J. Mayo	Deron Williams	Chris Paul
LeBron James	Brandon Roy	Richard Hamilton
Nate Robinson	Ben Gordon	Hedo Turkoglu
Shaquille O'Neal	Ron Artest	Boris Diaw
Rashard Lewis	Carlos Boozer	Troy Murphy
Jose Calderon	David West	Andrea Bargnani
Gerald Wallace	LaMarcus Aldridge	Chauncey Billups
Marc Gasol	Antonio McDyess	Grant Hill
Manu Ginobili	Brook Lopez	Rasheed Wallace
Tracy McGrady	Tyrus Thomas	Brad Miller
Raymond Felton	Mario Chalmers	Matt Barnes
Matt Bonner	Russell Westbrook	Marcus Camby
Luke Ridnour	Monta Ellis	Marvin Williams
Andrew Bynum	Jermaine O'Neal	Samuel Dalembert

IAmJabrone	Westy's Ballers	Chowtime
Derrick Rose	Jarrett Jack	Tony Parker
Joe Johnson	Andre Iguodala	Danny Granger
Al Horford	Devin Harris	Kelenna Azubuike
David Lee	Paul Pierce	Pau Gasol
Anthony Randolph	Andres Nocioni	Chris Andersen
Carmelo Anthony	Caron Butler	Dirk Nowitzki
Josh Smith	Al Jefferson	Vince Carter
Dwyane Wade	Mike Miller	Mike Bibby
Charlie Villanueva	Steve Blake	Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Jason Thompson	Nene Hilario	Jamal Crawford
Ronny Turiaf	Luis Scola	Ronnie Brewer
Al Thornton	Kevin Garnett	Chris Kaman
Gilbert Arenas	Tyson Chandler	Thaddeus Young
Michael Redd	Luol Deng	Jameer Nelson

Dribbling Balls	Floor Burns	Milwaukee Bricks
Jason Kidd	Leandro Barbosa	Baron Davis
Kobe Bryant	Kevin Martin	Eric Gordon
Rafer Alston	Lamar Odom	J.R. Smith
Mickael Pietrus	Shawn Marion	James Posey
Jeff Green	Tayshaun Prince	Luc Mbah a Moute
John Salmons	Kendrick Perkins	Michael Beasley
Dwight Howard	Paul Millsap	Mehmet Okur
Tim Duncan	Stephen Jackson	Emeka Okafor
Rudy Fernandez	Mo Williams	Andris Biedrins
Corey Maggette	Joakim Noah	Jason Terry
Andrei Kirilenko	Marquis Daniels	Jason Richardson
Derek Fisher	Richard Jefferson	Ramon Sessions
Greg Oden	Rodney Stuckey	Al Harrington
Mike James	Peja Stojakovic	Elton Brand

Love Timberwolves	Phatsnapper
Andre Miller	Allen Iverson
Kevin Durant	Randy Foye
DeShawn Stevenson	Steve Nash
Linas Kleiza	Antawn Jamison
Chris Bosh	Amar'e Stoudemire
Kevin Love	Wilson Chandler
Yao Ming	Andrew Bogut
Zach Randolph	Spencer Hawes
Josh Howard	Kenyon Martin
Rajon Rondo	Drew Gooden
Anthony Parker	Ray Allen
Mike Conley	T.J. Ford
Rudy Gay	Mike Dunleavy
Cuttino Mobley	Francisco Garcia

Lots of interesting choices, just based on the rosters. For example, there's a good chance that of Michael Redd, Gilbert Arenas, and Charlie Villaneuva, two of the three will be available. But there are also interesting changes in the dynamics, based on how the players' situations have changed (or not changed) in real life.

Obviously, injuries to people like Yao make for a tough situation. Do you just drop him, or do you hold on to him for the entire year? But an interesting thing comes up with you have free agents change locations. For example, we can start with Vinsanity going from Jersey to Orlando. If I had to guess, his numbers will probably stay roughly the same. And the void he leaves in Jersey probably means that Devin Harris gets a couple more shots, and that Brook Lopez gets more shots. But if you look to Orlando, this also means that Hedo Turkoglu (aka MJT, or the Michael Jordan of Turkey) is going somewhere else. If he had gone to Portland, the Blazers probably would have had a better team. However, there's a good chance that the numbers for Turkoglu, Brandon Roy, and LaMarcus Aldrige all decrease. That would have been a decidedly bad thing for the O.N. Thugs. Happily, it appears that MJT's taking his act up north to the Raptors... where this probably doesn't affect anyone a whole lot, and may even get Chris Bosh a couple more layups.

In any case, the O.N. Thugs have choices. We're keeping 8 out of 14. Here's how things look:

Must-Keep (6): Deron Williams, Brandon Roy, Carlos Boozer, David West, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brook Lopez.

Basically, there are a few obvious choices. D-Will and Roy are stone cold locks. Boozer was hurt, but is a 20 and 10 guy. David West is a 20 and 9 guy, who makes FT's. Aldrige comes in at 18 and 8. And Brook Lopez's 13, 8, and 2 blocks (and efficient scoring) becomes a must keep because of the scarcity of quality at C, even if Vince stays in Jersey. And truth be told, I was committed to Lopez, when I dropped Tyson Chandler last season to make a run at the championship.

Looking at this roster, it looks like there will be good scoring (at and efficient rate), very good rebounding, and slightly above average shot blocking and steals. D-Will can make up ground on assists, and only Lopez turns the ball over too much. However, the outside shooting is so-so. D-Will and Roy are OK from 3, but none of the bigs really shoot from 3. So who will round things out?

Probably Set Free (4): Antonio McDyess, Jermaine O'Neal, Mario Chalmers, Ron Artest

And as you look down the roster, you see two bigs that you can't keep: McDyess (age, uncertain where he'll play), and Jermaine O'Neal (showed some glimpses, but age has gotten to him, as well). Mario Chalmers would help with the STL and 3PM, but at 10 points and 5 assists (D-Wade has the ball too much), you just can't go down that road with a keeper. Same for Artest, since he has gotten a little old, and you have no idea where he'll fit w/ the Lakers. So who's left?

Question Marks (4, keep 2): Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, Monta Ellis, Russell Westbrook

Gordon puts up 20 a game, makes his FT's, and makes a lot of 3's. He would definitely keep the O.N. Thugs competitive in 3PM. But, he's also moving to a Pistons team that already has Stuckey (who needs the ball in his hands), and Rip Hamilton (who needs a lot of shots). Not sure what to think about that lineup.

Tyrus Thomas really came into his own toward the end of the season. Since February, he was about 13.5 PTS, 7.5 REB, 2.2 BLK, 1.2 STL, and was reasonably efficient from the floor (47.1%/77.5%). He should be improving, and getting a couple more shots with Gordon moving on. But where he really adds value is with the hustle stats. If he's getting the 31 minutes per game that he got toward the end of last season, you almost have to keep him.

Monta Ellis is coming off injury, but did put up 19 per game and was good from the line, though his shooting was a little off from the previous year (down to 45%, from 53%). You also saw some struggles for him at the point, and his AST numbers actually went down, despite the move to point. Nellie Ball runs fast, but that offense goes through Captain Jack... You'd forgive this if he was good in another category, but he doesn't shoot 3's, and his peripheral stats are mediocre. But he's young, and ultra talented, just like

Russell Westbrook. The comparison is to a young D-Wade. He was about 15 PTS, 5.5 AST, 5 REB, and 1.2 STL. He makes his FT's (81.5%), but is really bad from the floor (39.8%), and doens't shoot 3's often or well, but he can score in bunches (5 games over 30 points). The most important thing for Westbrook was that the Thunder didn't pick a PG in the draft. This means that Westbrook will be running the show for these guys.

At this point, I'm probably going to keep Tyrus Thomas, since he'd really stabilize the STL and BLK numbers. Gordon's the safe choice, but even with him, I was bad at 3PM last year. Westbrook's got the most upside, since he gets all sorts of hustle numbers. But Ellis has the potential to be a 25 point guy, as well... I think that part of it depends on where I end up drafting (side note - I've got a plan for the lottery, just haven't had a chance to post the idea).

In any case, the rosters are posted here. We'll get the lottery taken care of in a couple weeks, and I'll assign keepers about a week before the draft (which will be about a week before the start of the season).

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)