A wealth of energy and time is spent debating the rational approaches to fantasy stardom on the UPL blog. And, I'm glad it's here because I learn a lot from people who think more strategically than I do. However, competition is inherently emotional, so I'd like to touch on the irrational phenomenon known as the "Man Crush".
We all have them. We fall head over heels for a hurler's "stuff", or become enchanted by the sweet swing of a switch-hitter, even when the numbers suggest that our burning love is misplaced. And yet, there's something about that player that makes you draft him just one more year, in the hopes that he meets your unmet expectations. I remember Roland's infatuation for all things Tony Armas Jr. in the early 2000's. He would always wax poetic about how great Tony Armas' stuff was, and then be let down by a sub-par, injury riddled season. For me, that "man crush" is Francisco Liriano.
Despite Roland's declaration that the Liriano Era should be over for the Jabrones, I found myself taking him in my top 18 draft picks. Why you ask? Although Liriano's magical 2006 season is a distant memory for many, for some reason, Liriano's dominating employment of the changeup/fastball/slider in that season that lead him to a 12-3 record with a 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 144 Ks in 121 innings gets my heart racing. He looked like Johan Santana's protege and mini-me. Since then, he's dealt with Tommy John surgery, confidence issues, and overall bad control. I was all set to let him go as Roland espoused, and then this came out in January - "Francisco Making Strides in Winter Ball", "Francisco Liriano Shows Serious Stuff", and "LIriano's Winter Work Has Twins Excited". So, like a teenager who can't let a past relationship die, I did the comparison of calling back an old flame who calls you after a year of radio silence. I asked him to be on my team, yet again, hoping to have the Liriano that is closer to the '06 version, rather than the disasterous '09 version.
So, why do I share all of this? Because it's important to identify these tendencies in all of us and manage them accordingly. Some of us may have the discipline to say no to the pitcher with the scintilating stuff who we know is bad for us, but some of us don't. And, if we recognize it early on, we can begin to develop more rationally based strategies for managing it. For me, I knew that I couldn't resist Francisco Liriano, but I also know that I don't have to rely on him to put up great pitching numbers this year. Knowing this, he becomes a nice 18th round lottery ticket and potentially frees up some room for me to trade one of my better starters. He offers me talent that we've seen in the majors that no other player available to me does.
Perhaps, you're facing or did face this same scenario. What do you do? Counter your emotional impulses for certain players by making sure you can run the risk of chasing a player that may be harmful to your UPL health. And, if he ends up being a heartbreaker, make sure you have some other able-shouldered players to cry on.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Creation and the Expanding Universe, Part II
And on the 7th day...
...
...we looked at more potential franchise cornerstones for our creation.
Phatsnapper
Much like the O.N. Thugs' roster, there are all sorts of goodies available here. We don't know much about Madison Bumgarner, other than he looked solid last year getting his cup of tea w/ the big leaguers, and that he's young. Normally, you don't think about non-closing relievers, but Feliz is really young, and appears to be a closer in waiting. On offense, Hawpe is probably the most stable production, and Young is probably the most established player. LaPorta, Blanks, and Snider are all pretty highly regarded youngsters. I think that Michael Young's move to 3B will extend his stay w/ Texas. My opinion? I'm tempted by Price, though he hasn't shown enough to lock him down in my top 12, I don't think. The Moneyball approach probably says to go w/ Hawpe, since he's proven, plays in Colorado, and still only 31. But I've always had a soft spot for Michael young, plus his production at SS this year, and 3B in the future should count as a bonus.
Quick aside: I just don't know about those 24/25 year old prospects who haven't proven it, yet. I'm of the belief that true elite sort of players make an impact in the majors by 22/23. This is a bit of an old school, scout's approach. But it just seems that the guys who get to the majors late don't have the otherworldly ability to extend their careers. Basically the theory is that everyone learns on the job, that the learning increases your overall production, but that you can only learn so much. The phenoms don't really make use of the things they learn until they slow down, and then are able to maintain their dominance. On the other hand, the players that make an impact in the show late have already done their learning, and have maxed themselves out. Once their skills take them down, it's hard for them to learn more to keep themselves on top. So, in that sense, guys like LaPorta seem like they could make an impact for a few years, as they hit their peaks, but it's hard to see them extending this into their peaks into the mid-30's.
Black Sox
Here, it appears that the choices are Jose Lopez, Chris Iannetta, and Frank Francisco. It's hard to pass up 25 HR and 96 RBI from 2B, particularly with a relatively young guy. But that .303 OBP is scary to me. Iannetta is worth considering, since he's a C, and has the Coors Field thing going for him, and is relatively young. But my recommendation is to go closer again w/ Frank Francisco. Texas seems to always have high SV guys, and even if his rate stats are only OK, he'll be a trade piece, if needed.
MuddyMushHeads
Ordinarily, you'd be estatic with the chance to add someone like Cueto to your roster, since he's young, definitely improving, and seems to have all-star potential. But then you look down the list and see Grady Sizemore, who was dinged up last year, but is still a Yahoo! Top 25 player, and even if you discount his 2009 season off of his career numbers, still figures to be a Top 50-60 sort of player. Makes this an easy choice.
Also, as I was talking w/ CJ, one of our resident White Sox fans. She starts laughing and says something to the effect of, "He knows that Dye still isn't signed, yet, doesn't he?" When the team drafting first makes fun of your keeper choices, you may be in for some mocking and/or a long season.
JimmyDixLongballs
Here, we see some more options. Volquez ordinarily would be the way to go, but he's coming off of surgery, and may not be right until 2011. Buehrle, Shields, and Millwood are established, solid vets, w/ limited ceilings. Chances are, one of those players will be available in the 2nd round of expansion, so I let them pass, especially since there's so much other SP available. On offense, there's some attraction to Rasmus, since he's only 24, and Loney is this very athletic player who just can't seem to hit at home, nor has he developed the power that you'd expect from someone his size. But I think that the money play here is Cuddyer, who's 31, and appears to be playing at the level that they were expecting of him 5 or 6 years ago.
Hats For Bats
Here, you've got a couple interesting choices. Bedard's the best pitcher, but he's hurt, an dmay not be back until this summer. Derek Lowe's the brand name, and will probably be solid in ATL. Niemann's the younger, less proven, but probably option. On offense, Vernon Wells is probably the most talented. Juan Rivera is the safest bet to put up solid numbers. Molina gives you 20 HR and 80 RBI at C. Scutaro should score 100+ runs this year playing everyday in Boston. And Nick Johnson is a high OBP guy who should get some counting numbers in that Yankees lineup. You probably want to gamble with Bedard or Wells, or go with a relatively safe, relatively young pitcher in Niemann. I think that I go with Niemann here.
Benver Droncos
Keep it simple. Fuentes. Anytime you can dig up the SV leader for all of baseball? You take him. He may not be in your long term plans, but there are a number of teams that would trade a legit position player for him.
So what does the roster look like now?
SP - Jurrjens, Lilly, Oswalt, Niemann,
RP - Wagner, Fuentes, Francisco
1B - Butler
2B/SS - Cabrera
SS/3B - Young
OF - Sizemore, Cuddyer
This is starting to look like a pretty decent team, and a top half finish starts to look like a legit possibility. You've got a couple relatively young arms (Jurrjens and Niemann) to go with a couple vets (Oswalt and Lilly). You have 3 closers, who you can hang on to, or trade for legit talent. You could look for one or two more SP, and looking for potential closers could make for trade pieces. But you've got the core of a nice pitching staff.
On offense, you have a potential superstar (Sizemore) some established talent (Young, Cuddyer) to go with some youth (Butler and Cabrera). Most teams are going to be scrambling for a C and a middle IF position, anyway, so you're not really missing out. Now, you need to round out the lineup with another OF, and maybe a couple potential production guys at UTIL.
Some of the rosters will still have some strong players left after the next 6 protected players, so you'll get some more help there.
And on the 8th day? Well, now it's time to prep for the next round of keepers, and get ready for the draft.
In any case, we'll see what the Milwaukee Whiffers choose to do (whose bright idea was it to place a 2nd UPL team in Milwaukee, anyway?).
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
...
...we looked at more potential franchise cornerstones for our creation.
Phatsnapper
| Player | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Madison Bumgarner (21) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.80 | 1.10 |
| Neftali Feliz (22) | 1 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 1.74 | 0.68 |
| David Price (25) | 10 | 7 | 0 | 102 | 4.42 | 1.35 |
| Player | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG |
| Kyle Blanks (24) | 24 | 10 | 22 | 1 | 0.355 | 0.514 |
| Jack Cust | 88 | 25 | 70 | 4 | 0.356 | 0.417 |
| Yunel Escobar (28) | 89 | 14 | 76 | 5 | 0.377 | 0.436 |
| Brad Hawpe | 82 | 23 | 86 | 1 | 0.384 | 0.519 |
| Matt LaPorta (25) | 29 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 0.308 | 0.442 |
| Casey McGehee (28) | 58 | 16 | 66 | 0 | 0.360 | 0.499 |
| Nolan Reimold (27) | 49 | 15 | 45 | 8 | 0.365 | 0.466 |
| Travis Snider (22) | 34 | 9 | 29 | 1 | 0.328 | 0.419 |
| Rickie Weeks (28) | 28 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 0.340 | 0.517 |
| Michael Young | 76 | 22 | 68 | 8 | 0.374 | 0.518 |
Much like the O.N. Thugs' roster, there are all sorts of goodies available here. We don't know much about Madison Bumgarner, other than he looked solid last year getting his cup of tea w/ the big leaguers, and that he's young. Normally, you don't think about non-closing relievers, but Feliz is really young, and appears to be a closer in waiting. On offense, Hawpe is probably the most stable production, and Young is probably the most established player. LaPorta, Blanks, and Snider are all pretty highly regarded youngsters. I think that Michael Young's move to 3B will extend his stay w/ Texas. My opinion? I'm tempted by Price, though he hasn't shown enough to lock him down in my top 12, I don't think. The Moneyball approach probably says to go w/ Hawpe, since he's proven, plays in Colorado, and still only 31. But I've always had a soft spot for Michael young, plus his production at SS this year, and 3B in the future should count as a bonus.
Quick aside: I just don't know about those 24/25 year old prospects who haven't proven it, yet. I'm of the belief that true elite sort of players make an impact in the majors by 22/23. This is a bit of an old school, scout's approach. But it just seems that the guys who get to the majors late don't have the otherworldly ability to extend their careers. Basically the theory is that everyone learns on the job, that the learning increases your overall production, but that you can only learn so much. The phenoms don't really make use of the things they learn until they slow down, and then are able to maintain their dominance. On the other hand, the players that make an impact in the show late have already done their learning, and have maxed themselves out. Once their skills take them down, it's hard for them to learn more to keep themselves on top. So, in that sense, guys like LaPorta seem like they could make an impact for a few years, as they hit their peaks, but it's hard to see them extending this into their peaks into the mid-30's.
Black Sox
| Player | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Zach Duke | 11 | 16 | 0 | 106 | 4.06 | 1.31 |
| Frank Francisco | 2 | 3 | 25 | 57 | 3.83 | 1.11 |
| Jason Marquis | 15 | 13 | 0 | 115 | 4.04 | 1.38 |
| Player | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG |
| Mike Cameron | 78 | 24 | 70 | 7 | 0.342 | 0.452 |
| Jorge Cantú (28) | 67 | 16 | 100 | 3 | 0.345 | 0.443 |
| Chris Iannetta (27) | 41 | 16 | 52 | 0 | 0.344 | 0.460 |
| José López (26) | 69 | 25 | 96 | 3 | 0.303 | 0.463 |
| Nyjer Morgan | 74 | 3 | 39 | 42 | 0.369 | 0.388 |
| Cody Ross (29) | 73 | 24 | 90 | 5 | 0.321 | 0.469 |
Here, it appears that the choices are Jose Lopez, Chris Iannetta, and Frank Francisco. It's hard to pass up 25 HR and 96 RBI from 2B, particularly with a relatively young guy. But that .303 OBP is scary to me. Iannetta is worth considering, since he's a C, and has the Coors Field thing going for him, and is relatively young. But my recommendation is to go closer again w/ Frank Francisco. Texas seems to always have high SV guys, and even if his rate stats are only OK, he'll be a trade piece, if needed.
MuddyMushHeads
| Player | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Johnny Cueto (24) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 132 | 4.41 | 1.36 |
| Tommy Hunter (24) | 9 | 6 | 0 | 64 | 4.10 | 1.30 |
| Player | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG |
| Casey Blake | 84 | 18 | 79 | 3 | 0.363 | 0.468 |
| Rafael Furcal | 92 | 9 | 47 | 12 | 0.335 | 0.375 |
| Felipe López | 88 | 9 | 57 | 6 | 0.383 | 0.427 |
| Grady Sizemore (28) | 73 | 18 | 64 | 13 | 0.343 | 0.445 |
Ordinarily, you'd be estatic with the chance to add someone like Cueto to your roster, since he's young, definitely improving, and seems to have all-star potential. But then you look down the list and see Grady Sizemore, who was dinged up last year, but is still a Yahoo! Top 25 player, and even if you discount his 2009 season off of his career numbers, still figures to be a Top 50-60 sort of player. Makes this an easy choice.
Also, as I was talking w/ CJ, one of our resident White Sox fans. She starts laughing and says something to the effect of, "He knows that Dye still isn't signed, yet, doesn't he?" When the team drafting first makes fun of your keeper choices, you may be in for some mocking and/or a long season.
JimmyDixLongballs
| Player | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Mark Buehrle | 13 | 10 | 0 | 105 | 3.84 | 1.25 |
| Kevin Millwood | 13 | 10 | 0 | 123 | 3.67 | 1.34 |
| James Shields (28) | 11 | 12 | 0 | 167 | 4.14 | 1.32 |
| Edinson Vólquez (27) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 47 | 4.35 | 1.33 |
| Player | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG |
| Michael Cuddyer | 93 | 32 | 94 | 6 | 0.342 | 0.520 |
| James Loney (26) | 73 | 13 | 90 | 7 | 0.357 | 0.399 |
| Alexei Ramírez (29) | 71 | 15 | 68 | 14 | 0.333 | 0.389 |
| Colby Rasmus (24) | 72 | 16 | 52 | 3 | 0.307 | 0.407 |
| Nick Swisher | 84 | 29 | 82 | 0 | 0.371 | 0.498 |
| Ryan Theriot | 81 | 7 | 54 | 21 | 0.343 | 0.369 |
Here, we see some more options. Volquez ordinarily would be the way to go, but he's coming off of surgery, and may not be right until 2011. Buehrle, Shields, and Millwood are established, solid vets, w/ limited ceilings. Chances are, one of those players will be available in the 2nd round of expansion, so I let them pass, especially since there's so much other SP available. On offense, there's some attraction to Rasmus, since he's only 24, and Loney is this very athletic player who just can't seem to hit at home, nor has he developed the power that you'd expect from someone his size. But I think that the money play here is Cuddyer, who's 31, and appears to be playing at the level that they were expecting of him 5 or 6 years ago.
Hats For Bats
| Player | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Erik Bedard | 5 | 3 | 0 | 90 | 2.82 | 1.19 |
| Derek Lowe | 15 | 10 | 0 | 111 | 4.67 | 1.52 |
| Jeff Niemann (27) | 13 | 6 | 0 | 125 | 3.94 | 1.35 |
| Player | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG |
| Corey Hart (28) | 64 | 12 | 48 | 11 | 0.335 | 0.418 |
| Nick Johnson | 71 | 8 | 62 | 2 | 0.426 | 0.405 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 63 | 22 | 97 | 4 | 0.329 | 0.447 |
| Bengie Molina | 52 | 20 | 80 | 0 | 0.285 | 0.442 |
| Juan Rivera | 72 | 25 | 88 | 0 | 0.332 | 0.478 |
| Marco Scutaro | 100 | 12 | 60 | 14 | 0.379 | 0.409 |
| Vernon Wells | 84 | 15 | 66 | 17 | 0.311 | 0.400 |
Here, you've got a couple interesting choices. Bedard's the best pitcher, but he's hurt, an dmay not be back until this summer. Derek Lowe's the brand name, and will probably be solid in ATL. Niemann's the younger, less proven, but probably option. On offense, Vernon Wells is probably the most talented. Juan Rivera is the safest bet to put up solid numbers. Molina gives you 20 HR and 80 RBI at C. Scutaro should score 100+ runs this year playing everyday in Boston. And Nick Johnson is a high OBP guy who should get some counting numbers in that Yankees lineup. You probably want to gamble with Bedard or Wells, or go with a relatively safe, relatively young pitcher in Niemann. I think that I go with Niemann here.
Benver Droncos
| Player | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Brian Fuentes | 1 | 5 | 48 | 46 | 3.93 | 1.40 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | 8 | 7 | 0 | 87 | 3.76 | 1.14 |
| Jarrod Washburn | 9 | 9 | 0 | 100 | 3.78 | 1.19 |
| Kerry Wood | 3 | 3 | 20 | 63 | 4.25 | 1.38 |
| Player | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG |
| Marlon Byrd | 66 | 20 | 89 | 8 | 0.329 | 0.479 |
| Franklin Gutiérrez (27) | 85 | 18 | 70 | 16 | 0.339 | 0.425 |
| Brandon Inge | 71 | 27 | 84 | 2 | 0.314 | 0.406 |
| Garrett Jones (29) | 45 | 21 | 44 | 10 | 0.372 | 0.567 |
Keep it simple. Fuentes. Anytime you can dig up the SV leader for all of baseball? You take him. He may not be in your long term plans, but there are a number of teams that would trade a legit position player for him.
So what does the roster look like now?
SP - Jurrjens, Lilly, Oswalt, Niemann,
RP - Wagner, Fuentes, Francisco
1B - Butler
2B/SS - Cabrera
SS/3B - Young
OF - Sizemore, Cuddyer
This is starting to look like a pretty decent team, and a top half finish starts to look like a legit possibility. You've got a couple relatively young arms (Jurrjens and Niemann) to go with a couple vets (Oswalt and Lilly). You have 3 closers, who you can hang on to, or trade for legit talent. You could look for one or two more SP, and looking for potential closers could make for trade pieces. But you've got the core of a nice pitching staff.
On offense, you have a potential superstar (Sizemore) some established talent (Young, Cuddyer) to go with some youth (Butler and Cabrera). Most teams are going to be scrambling for a C and a middle IF position, anyway, so you're not really missing out. Now, you need to round out the lineup with another OF, and maybe a couple potential production guys at UTIL.
Some of the rosters will still have some strong players left after the next 6 protected players, so you'll get some more help there.
And on the 8th day? Well, now it's time to prep for the next round of keepers, and get ready for the draft.
In any case, we'll see what the Milwaukee Whiffers choose to do (whose bright idea was it to place a 2nd UPL team in Milwaukee, anyway?).
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Labels:
baseball,
drafting,
player evaluation,
roster management,
strategy,
UPL History
Monday, March 15, 2010
Creation and the Expanding Universe, Part I
Our first ever UPL Expansion draft is upon us, and it's looking like there is going to be some talent available for our expansion teams. So if I were playing creator, how would I try to bring a franchise out of the cosmic mess known as the expansion draft?
I'm glad you asked.
In this 2-part series, we'll break down what's available, and of what's available, what's worth thinking about. First up, the top 6 teams from 2009. Then the bottom 6 teams, along with any possible changes. I've added ages for players under 30.
'90 Reds
Interestingly, the best offensive option, Billy Butler is also the youngest option. Joe Nathan is worth thinking about stashing away for the year, but the problem is that it may be a 2-year commitment. Javy Vazquez is probably the best pitcher, though he's old (34). Wandy Rodriguez is only 31. My recommendation? Take the young talent, even if he is on KC: Billy Butler, 1B.
IAmJabrone
Here, you see a couple options. Kubel gives you a nice balance of production and age, though he may lose some AB this year with the acquistion of Thome. Stewart qualifies at 2B and 3B, and gives you decent counting numbers and a reasonable SLG (though his OBP is bad). Liriano is a few years removed from his status as the next Johan Santana, though he is following his former mentor's injury path. He's worth considering in later position, but probably not in the top 12. A better option would be to take a shot at Billy Wagner, who could have strong trade value if he gets off to a good start. De la Rosa seems to have found his stride, and will have a good team behind him. My recommendation? Take the shot at Billy Wagner, since he could have huge trade value by June.
Westy's Sluggers
Here, the cream of the crop appears to be Jurrjens, who put up a very good season on all fronts, save for his K numbers, and is still only 24. Nate McLouth is the other option - anytime you get a chance to get a 20-20 guy who will chip in solid R and RBI w/out killing your OBP or SLG (though they weren't great last yera), you have to consider it. The name out there is Big Z. My recommendation? Don't overthink this. Young arms w/ big league success are gold. Take Jair Jurrjens.
O.N. Thugs
All sorts of goodies here. Harden has been intriguing with his stuff for a few years now, and was great in 2008. Of course, he's always injury prone. Another question mark is Ben Sheets, who's back throwing in the 90's, but is coming off of major surgery last year. There's all sorts of young talent available, between Andrus, Borbon, Cabrera, and Alex Gordon, and even Russell Martin's only 27. Posada's probably the best player, though he's old. My recommendation? Again, relatively young, proven arms are gold in this format. I've been intrigued by Harden all these years, and it would be like I was admitting I was wrong if I didn't go Harden... but the smart play here is probably to go with the most reliable of the youngsters, Asdrubal Cabrera, who's slated to be in the 2 hole between Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo in that Indians lineup.
SuckMyKnuckleballs
This is sort of interesting. While the O.N. Thugs' roster was full of young talent, this roster is not. Roy Oswalt is probably the best option for pitching. Hideki Matsui may have a couple years left in the tank and will be hitting 5th or 6th for the Halos. Similar story for Rolen, who will be in the middle of a decent Reds lineup. Magglio Ordonez may be worth thinking about, if you think that he can regain his 2008 form, or better. Best bet here? Take Oswalt, who's still only 33, and probably has another 4-5 strong years left.
Cheeseheads
Here, we see more older vets. The three that pop out should be Ted Lilly, David Ortiz, and Alfonso Soriano. Lilly was his usual solid self, though he lost some time to injury, only loggin 177 IP. Pineiro finally put it together last year, and put up a really good season in STL, and now moves to ANA where he'll be the 3rd starter. He's a couple years younger than Lilly, and worth thinking about. Big Papi was off last year, and still managed 28 HR and 99 RBI, though his rate numbers were sort of painful, and he's struggled so far this spring. Plus, you should be able to trade him to OD at some point... Soriano was just off all of 2009, though he's probably more likely to bounce back that Papi, who appears to be done. I think that the play here is to go with Ted Lilly, and realize that you can get someone like Konerko/LaRoche/Ortiz with the next round of expansion, if you want.
So, it looks like this so far:
SP - Jurrjens, Lilly, Oswalt
RP - Wagner
1B - Butler
2B/SS - Cabrera
I'd be tempted to just go pitching heavy, and go after Harden, who fits the profile for expansion: young, high ceiling. I'd guess that he's a higher ceiling than Cabrera. This strategy sets you up for later, because you always seem to be able to trade pitching. And moreover, you can probably dig up some 20-HR power at 1B fairly easily. However, Butler's just too young to pass up. I'd also consider going with Ian Stewart over Billy Wagner, but Stewart's low rate stats are a little scary, and the potential return for a top closer is big enough for me to pass take a shot at.
Next time, we'll come back and see how the rest of the teams look... here's a hint. There's a Yahoo! top 25 pre-rank player available. And he's only 28.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
I'm glad you asked.
In this 2-part series, we'll break down what's available, and of what's available, what's worth thinking about. First up, the top 6 teams from 2009. Then the bottom 6 teams, along with any possible changes. I've added ages for players under 30.
'90 Reds
| Player | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Homer Bailey (24) | 8 | 5 | 0 | 86 | 4.53 | 1.47 |
| Edwin Jackson (27) | 13 | 9 | 0 | 161 | 3.62 | 1.26 |
| Joe Nathan | 2 | 2 | 47 | 89 | 2.1 | 0.93 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | 14 | 12 | 0 | 193 | 3.02 | 1.24 |
| Javier Vazquez | 15 | 10 | 0 | 238 | 2.87 | 1.03 |
| Player | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG |
| Billy Butler (24) | 78 | 21 | 93 | 1 | 0.362 | 0.492 |
| Chris Coghlan (25) | 84 | 9 | 47 | 8 | 0.390 | 0.460 |
| Chipper Jones | 80 | 18 | 71 | 4 | 0.388 | 0.430 |
Interestingly, the best offensive option, Billy Butler is also the youngest option. Joe Nathan is worth thinking about stashing away for the year, but the problem is that it may be a 2-year commitment. Javy Vazquez is probably the best pitcher, though he's old (34). Wandy Rodriguez is only 31. My recommendation? Take the young talent, even if he is on KC: Billy Butler, 1B.
IAmJabrone
| Player | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Clay Buchholz (26) | 7 | 4 | 0 | 68 | 4.21 | 1.38 |
| Matt Capps (27) | 4 | 8 | 27 | 46 | 5.80 | 1.66 |
| Jorge De La Rosa (29) | 16 | 9 | 0 | 193 | 4.38 | 1.38 |
| Ryan Dempster | 11 | 9 | 0 | 172 | 3.65 | 1.30 |
| Francisco Liriano (27) | 5 | 13 | 0 | 122 | 5.80 | 1.55 |
| Billy Wagner | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1.72 | 1.02 |
| Player | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG |
| Johnny Damon | 107 | 24 | 82 | 12 | 0.365 | 0.489 |
| Chris Davis (24) | 48 | 21 | 59 | 0 | 0.284 | 0.442 |
| Jason Kubel (28) | 73 | 28 | 103 | 1 | 0.369 | 0.539 |
| Mike Napoli (29) | 60 | 20 | 56 | 3 | 0.350 | 0.492 |
| Ian Stewart (25) | 74 | 25 | 70 | 7 | 0.322 | 0.464 |
Here, you see a couple options. Kubel gives you a nice balance of production and age, though he may lose some AB this year with the acquistion of Thome. Stewart qualifies at 2B and 3B, and gives you decent counting numbers and a reasonable SLG (though his OBP is bad). Liriano is a few years removed from his status as the next Johan Santana, though he is following his former mentor's injury path. He's worth considering in later position, but probably not in the top 12. A better option would be to take a shot at Billy Wagner, who could have strong trade value if he gets off to a good start. De la Rosa seems to have found his stride, and will have a good team behind him. My recommendation? Take the shot at Billy Wagner, since he could have huge trade value by June.
Westy's Sluggers
| Player | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Scott Baker (29) | 15 | 9 | 0 | 162 | 4.37 | 1.19 |
| Matt Garza (26) | 8 | 12 | 0 | 189 | 3.95 | 1.26 |
| Jair Jurrjens (24) | 14 | 10 | 0 | 152 | 2.60 | 1.21 |
| Leo Núñez (27) | 4 | 6 | 26 | 60 | 4.06 | 1.25 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 9 | 7 | 0 | 152 | 3.77 | 1.38 |
| Player | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG |
| Russell Branyan | 64 | 31 | 76 | 2 | 0.347 | 0.520 |
| Rajai Davis | 65 | 3 | 48 | 41 | 0.360 | 0.423 |
| Nate McLouth (29) | 86 | 20 | 70 | 19 | 0.352 | 0.436 |
Here, the cream of the crop appears to be Jurrjens, who put up a very good season on all fronts, save for his K numbers, and is still only 24. Nate McLouth is the other option - anytime you get a chance to get a 20-20 guy who will chip in solid R and RBI w/out killing your OBP or SLG (though they weren't great last yera), you have to consider it. The name out there is Big Z. My recommendation? Don't overthink this. Young arms w/ big league success are gold. Take Jair Jurrjens.
O.N. Thugs
| Player | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Rich Harden (28) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 171 | 4.09 | 1.34 |
| Ben Sheets | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Player | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG |
| Elvis Andrus (22) | 72 | 6 | 40 | 33 | 0.329 | 0.373 |
| Julio Borbón (24) | 30 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 0.376 | 0.414 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera (24) | 81 | 6 | 68 | 17 | 0.361 | 0.438 |
| Alex Gordon (26) | 28 | 6 | 22 | 5 | 0.324 | 0.378 |
| Todd Helton | 79 | 15 | 86 | 0 | 0.416 | 0.489 |
| Russell Martin (27) | 63 | 7 | 53 | 11 | 0.352 | 0.329 |
| Jorge Posada | 55 | 22 | 81 | 1 | 0.363 | 0.522 |
| Josh Willingham | 70 | 24 | 61 | 4 | 0.367 | 0.496 |
All sorts of goodies here. Harden has been intriguing with his stuff for a few years now, and was great in 2008. Of course, he's always injury prone. Another question mark is Ben Sheets, who's back throwing in the 90's, but is coming off of major surgery last year. There's all sorts of young talent available, between Andrus, Borbon, Cabrera, and Alex Gordon, and even Russell Martin's only 27. Posada's probably the best player, though he's old. My recommendation? Again, relatively young, proven arms are gold in this format. I've been intrigued by Harden all these years, and it would be like I was admitting I was wrong if I didn't go Harden... but the smart play here is probably to go with the most reliable of the youngsters, Asdrubal Cabrera, who's slated to be in the 2 hole between Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo in that Indians lineup.
SuckMyKnuckleballs
| Player | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Gavin Floyd (27) | 11 | 11 | 0 | 163 | 4.06 | 1.23 |
| Tim Hudson | 2 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 3.61 | 1.46 |
| Roy Oswalt | 8 | 6 | 0 | 138 | 4.12 | 1.24 |
| Player | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG |
| Mark DeRosa | 78 | 23 | 78 | 3 | 0.319 | 0.433 |
| Hideki Matsui | 62 | 28 | 90 | 0 | 0.367 | 0.509 |
| Magglio Ordóñez | 54 | 9 | 50 | 3 | 0.376 | 0.428 |
| Scott Rolen | 76 | 11 | 67 | 5 | 0.368 | 0.455 |
| Kurt Suzuki (27) | 74 | 15 | 88 | 8 | 0.313 | 0.421 |
This is sort of interesting. While the O.N. Thugs' roster was full of young talent, this roster is not. Roy Oswalt is probably the best option for pitching. Hideki Matsui may have a couple years left in the tank and will be hitting 5th or 6th for the Halos. Similar story for Rolen, who will be in the middle of a decent Reds lineup. Magglio Ordonez may be worth thinking about, if you think that he can regain his 2008 form, or better. Best bet here? Take Oswalt, who's still only 33, and probably has another 4-5 strong years left.
Cheeseheads
| Player | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Ted Lilly | 12 | 9 | 0 | 151 | 3.10 | 1.06 |
| Joel Piñeiro | 15 | 12 | 0 | 105 | 3.49 | 1.14 |
| Randy Wells (28) | 12 | 10 | 0 | 104 | 3.05 | 1.28 |
| Player | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG |
| Clint Barmes | 69 | 23 | 76 | 12 | 0.294 | 0.440 |
| Paul Konerko | 75 | 28 | 88 | 1 | 0.353 | 0.489 |
| Adam LaRoche | 78 | 25 | 83 | 2 | 0.355 | 0.488 |
| David Ortiz | 77 | 28 | 99 | 0 | 0.332 | 0.462 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 64 | 20 | 55 | 9 | 0.303 | 0.423 |
Here, we see more older vets. The three that pop out should be Ted Lilly, David Ortiz, and Alfonso Soriano. Lilly was his usual solid self, though he lost some time to injury, only loggin 177 IP. Pineiro finally put it together last year, and put up a really good season in STL, and now moves to ANA where he'll be the 3rd starter. He's a couple years younger than Lilly, and worth thinking about. Big Papi was off last year, and still managed 28 HR and 99 RBI, though his rate numbers were sort of painful, and he's struggled so far this spring. Plus, you should be able to trade him to OD at some point... Soriano was just off all of 2009, though he's probably more likely to bounce back that Papi, who appears to be done. I think that the play here is to go with Ted Lilly, and realize that you can get someone like Konerko/LaRoche/Ortiz with the next round of expansion, if you want.
So, it looks like this so far:
SP - Jurrjens, Lilly, Oswalt
RP - Wagner
1B - Butler
2B/SS - Cabrera
I'd be tempted to just go pitching heavy, and go after Harden, who fits the profile for expansion: young, high ceiling. I'd guess that he's a higher ceiling than Cabrera. This strategy sets you up for later, because you always seem to be able to trade pitching. And moreover, you can probably dig up some 20-HR power at 1B fairly easily. However, Butler's just too young to pass up. I'd also consider going with Ian Stewart over Billy Wagner, but Stewart's low rate stats are a little scary, and the potential return for a top closer is big enough for me to pass take a shot at.
Next time, we'll come back and see how the rest of the teams look... here's a hint. There's a Yahoo! top 25 pre-rank player available. And he's only 28.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Labels:
baseball,
drafting,
player evaluation,
roster management,
strategy,
UPL History
Fantasy 101: The Run-Down, Heading into Year 3
I just realized that the UPL Blog has just had it's 100th post, and we're closing in on the end of the UPL Blog's 2nd year in existence. Time flies, I suppose. Since the start of the UPL Blog, we've seen two more O.N. Thugs hoops championships, one of which was an unexpected tie w/ UPL Newcomer Stephan. And interestingly enough, we are coming down the stretch again, with another potentially exciting final week of fantasy hoops in play. We have also seen two championships from the Jabrones, the first in 2008 Baseball, followed by a 2008 Football championship, which set up the first potential non-O.N. Thugs Tiger Slam (holding all of the championships, but not in one calendar year) in 2009 Basketball. The UPL Blog has also coincided with a return to the top by the '90 Reds and a new UPL Champion, Dino.
There have been contentious trade scenarios, innovations in our draft orders, and the creation of keeper leagues in our roto formats. And of course, there has been speculation on my part about the potential success of the O.N. Thugs, with mixed results. Interestingly, there has been much less analysis about the O.N. Thugs, and more speculation of the moves of the other franchises of the UPL. I believe that one of the more interesting developments in the UPL is the analysis done in the pre-season analysis, between the draft recaps and the team previews. Those writeups are fun to write, are great for understanding the fantasy landscape, and are great to look back on after the season is over.
One thing that the UPL Blog hasn't been quite as successful at is with it's hope of incorporating the other UPL owners' voices. After all, many folks believe in the power behind the wisdom of the crowds (though, I have to confess that I'm of the opinion that the crowds are generally idiots). C-Lauff and CJ had originally signed on to be co-authors, but have not chimed in quite as much as originally hoped. One of the originally targeted authors, Greg, ventured off on his own to create his own Baseball Fantasy, where UPL banter is prominently featured. And UPL Newcomer Pauly has recently done the same. So there is some other UPL chatter, other than the message boards and the UPL Blog. Hopefully, this will continue to grow.
As always, the goal of this blog is to get an interesting, lively discussion going, and every once in a while, you have me making bold statements and outrageous claims. I don't really know how successful we've been. But in any case, for the UPL Blog, it's 101 posts down, and who knows how many more to go.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
There have been contentious trade scenarios, innovations in our draft orders, and the creation of keeper leagues in our roto formats. And of course, there has been speculation on my part about the potential success of the O.N. Thugs, with mixed results. Interestingly, there has been much less analysis about the O.N. Thugs, and more speculation of the moves of the other franchises of the UPL. I believe that one of the more interesting developments in the UPL is the analysis done in the pre-season analysis, between the draft recaps and the team previews. Those writeups are fun to write, are great for understanding the fantasy landscape, and are great to look back on after the season is over.
One thing that the UPL Blog hasn't been quite as successful at is with it's hope of incorporating the other UPL owners' voices. After all, many folks believe in the power behind the wisdom of the crowds (though, I have to confess that I'm of the opinion that the crowds are generally idiots). C-Lauff and CJ had originally signed on to be co-authors, but have not chimed in quite as much as originally hoped. One of the originally targeted authors, Greg, ventured off on his own to create his own Baseball Fantasy, where UPL banter is prominently featured. And UPL Newcomer Pauly has recently done the same. So there is some other UPL chatter, other than the message boards and the UPL Blog. Hopefully, this will continue to grow.
As always, the goal of this blog is to get an interesting, lively discussion going, and every once in a while, you have me making bold statements and outrageous claims. I don't really know how successful we've been. But in any case, for the UPL Blog, it's 101 posts down, and who knows how many more to go.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Saturday, March 13, 2010
UPL Baseball Draft Lottery and 2010 Preview - Pick 1
The 1st pick in the 2010 UPL Baseball Draft goes to:
JimmyDixLongballs
History: UPL Newcomer, whose initial foray into baseball in 2008 resulted in a 4th place finish, but then fell to 10th place in 2009.
Tendencies: Our 2nd White Sox fan. Not sure about tendencies, yet, though JimmyDix doesn't appear to be afraid to make a deal from time to time.
2009 Result: 10th place
Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Evan Longoria, Ian Kinsler, Brian McCann, Gordon Beckham, Kendry Morales, Derek Lee, Nelson Cruz
Pitching Locks: Cliff Lee, Jared Weaver, Bobby Jenks
Probable Keepers: Michael Cuddyer, Nick Swisher, Colby Rasmus, Alexi Ramirez, Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Brad Lidge, Kevin Millwood, James Shields
Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Deep offense with some redundancy at 2B and 3B, which is a luxury. Balanced production makes injuries a little less of a concern.
Offensive Question Marks: This offense is generally pretty solid, though the speed is so-so at best. Also, the OBP could be a struggle, with only D-Lee and Swisher as legit OBP guys.
Pitching Strengths: n/a
Pitching Question Marks: Which Cliff Lee will you get - it's probably the one that was awesome down the stretch for PHI, but you're not certain. Jared Weaver started to control his stuff better last year, and is a high ceiling pitcher. Guys like Buehrle and Danks are going to be solid, not great with their rate stats, and you hope that their W-L record justifies their spot on the roster. This isnt' the best way to put together a fantasy rotation, as K's will be a struggle, the ERA and WHIP has a low ceiling, and you have to hope for the best w/ W-L, which you're doing regardless. Two question marks at closer. Lidge was bad last year, and Jenks struggled a bit, as well. Got very unlucky with Edinson Volquez, who you probably can't keep.
2010 Outlook: If the luck flows for JimmyDix' pitching, then this team could be closer to the 4th place team of 2008, than the 10th place team of 2009. But lots of things have to go right. The offense should make this team OK, but the real strength should be the ability to deal some offense to get back some top-end pitching. If I had to put a guess on how things pan out, I'd go with something in the middle of the pack, maybe a little below average like 8th place.
The JimmyDixLongballs are on the clock.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
JimmyDixLongballs
History: UPL Newcomer, whose initial foray into baseball in 2008 resulted in a 4th place finish, but then fell to 10th place in 2009.
Tendencies: Our 2nd White Sox fan. Not sure about tendencies, yet, though JimmyDix doesn't appear to be afraid to make a deal from time to time.
2009 Result: 10th place
Likely Keepers:
Offense Locks: Evan Longoria, Ian Kinsler, Brian McCann, Gordon Beckham, Kendry Morales, Derek Lee, Nelson Cruz
Pitching Locks: Cliff Lee, Jared Weaver, Bobby Jenks
Probable Keepers: Michael Cuddyer, Nick Swisher, Colby Rasmus, Alexi Ramirez, Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Brad Lidge, Kevin Millwood, James Shields
Strengths and Question Marks:
Offensive Strengths: Deep offense with some redundancy at 2B and 3B, which is a luxury. Balanced production makes injuries a little less of a concern.
Offensive Question Marks: This offense is generally pretty solid, though the speed is so-so at best. Also, the OBP could be a struggle, with only D-Lee and Swisher as legit OBP guys.
Pitching Strengths: n/a
Pitching Question Marks: Which Cliff Lee will you get - it's probably the one that was awesome down the stretch for PHI, but you're not certain. Jared Weaver started to control his stuff better last year, and is a high ceiling pitcher. Guys like Buehrle and Danks are going to be solid, not great with their rate stats, and you hope that their W-L record justifies their spot on the roster. This isnt' the best way to put together a fantasy rotation, as K's will be a struggle, the ERA and WHIP has a low ceiling, and you have to hope for the best w/ W-L, which you're doing regardless. Two question marks at closer. Lidge was bad last year, and Jenks struggled a bit, as well. Got very unlucky with Edinson Volquez, who you probably can't keep.
2010 Outlook: If the luck flows for JimmyDix' pitching, then this team could be closer to the 4th place team of 2008, than the 10th place team of 2009. But lots of things have to go right. The offense should make this team OK, but the real strength should be the ability to deal some offense to get back some top-end pitching. If I had to put a guess on how things pan out, I'd go with something in the middle of the pack, maybe a little below average like 8th place.
The JimmyDixLongballs are on the clock.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Labels:
baseball,
drafting,
roster management,
strategy,
UPL History
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