Not Bullish. Not Bearish. Definitely Thuggish: An (Almost) Decade of UPL Hijinks

With the close of the Twenty-Aughts, the UPL has evolved from a haphazard grouping of random chumps into... well... uh... maybe we haven't evolved from a membership standpoint. But we've been innovating quite a bit. In both baseball and basketball, we've moved from a season-long points league, to a roto league. And this has probably been for the better, since our points leagues were always largely decided 2/3 of the way through (if not earlier). Now, with the roto format, we've had some incredibly exciting finishes the last few years, with a number of ties.

In football, we've always been a little ahead of the curve with our stats, and have been pushing the limits of roster complexity by having additional flex positions and allowing return yardage. And recently, we have added individual defensive players to the point where now we have 4 starting defensive players, in addition to a team defense. We haven't started drafting punters, but you better believe that as soon as Yahoo! adds that feature, we'll be figuring out what round we should draft Shane Lechler in (probably the 9th, if you had to know it).

Interestingly, leagues like this pretty much run themselves, once you have things up an running. And with as much momentum as we've gained in the 9 years since our start-up back in 2001 Baseball, we've been able to add on some innovations, including this space. The UPL Blog has been a fun little project, which we've undertaken (and are always looking for more authors!). But I think that need for a space like this really took off with the idea that we were going to try to extend the reach of the fantasy season by going with keeper leagues in baseball and basketball. And with any keeper league, you have to figure out new rules, like how you will handle keepers, the draft order, etc. The UPL Blog has let us make these announcements, even when Yahoo! doesn't have things ready to go. Part of the innovation has been things like doing a UPL Draft Lottery prior to the basketball season, which was a successful venture. I believe that we'll carry it over into baseball.

As much as I love thinking about how we've been able to improve the UPL, and having some ideas of where we want to go forward, that's not really why we play the game. At the end of the day, it's all about the jewelry.

Sport	Year	Teams	Champ	2nd	3rd	4th
Baseball	2001	10	'90Reds	O.N. Thugs	IamJabrone	Westy
Baseball	2002	?	O.N. Thugs	?	?	?
Baseball	2003	11	O.N. Thugs	IamJabrone	Cheeseheads	SuckCurveballs
Baseball	2004	14	O.N. Thugs	Champaign Toast	Westy	GenEric
Baseball	2005	12	O.N. Thugs	IamJabrone	Westy	SuckCurveballs
Baseball	2006	11	Phatsnapper	Westy	O.N. Thugs	IamJabrone
Baseball	2007	11	O.N. Thugs (tie)	'90Reds (tie)	IamJabrone	Milwaukee
Baseball	2008	12	IamJabrone	O.N. Thugs	SuckCurveballs	JimmyDix
Baseball	2009	12	'90Reds	Westy	IamJabrone	O.N. Thugs
Basketball	2002	9	O.N. Thugs	Tweedledumm	C-Lauff	SuperFriends
Basketball	2003	12	O.N. Thugs	Westy	3 Men & Afro	SuckBasketballs
Basketball	2004	9	Westy	O.N. Thugs	Sparty	Groove
Basketball	2005	7	Westy	O.N. Thugs	Milwaukee	Groove
Basketball	2006	8	O.N. Thugs (tie)	IamJabrone (tie)	SuckBasketballs	Milwaukee
Basketball	2007	10	O.N. Thugs	IamJabrone	chowtime	Westy
Basketball	2008	12	O.N. Thugs	IamJabrone	chowtime	Westy
Basketball	2009	11	O.N. Thugs (tie)	Stephan (tie)	Sparty	IamJabrone
Football	2001	9	I Giocatori	ChrisF	Dino	Panda Bears
Football	2002	12	I Giocatori	Westy	IamJabrone	GenEric
Football	2003	14	O.N. Thugs	Tweedledummer	I Giocatori (tie)	Tweedledumm (tie)
Football	2004	14	Tweedledumm	Tweedledummer	Cheeseheads	O.N. Thugs
Football	2005	14	I Giocatori	IamJabrone	O.N. Thugs	Yvonne
Football	2006	10	I Giocatori	O.N. Thugs	GenEric	IamJabrone
Football	2007	12	JimmyDix	O.N. Thugs	I Giocatori	Dino
Football	2008	12	IamJabrone	Stephan	I Giocatori	O.N. Thugs
Football	2009	14	Dino	Stephan	O.N. Thugs	IamJabrone

First of all, does anyone remember anything from 2002 Baseball (# of teams, who finished 2nd, 3rd, etc.). Yahoo! doesn't have any records of that year. All I remember is that the O.N. Thugs won, and it was was the last year we did a points league, because for the 2nd straight year, the season was over by mid-July, and people stopped checking their team. And I seem to recall Greg finishing in the bottom half, and not being able to follow-up his inaugural victory. If you could help me fill in the blanks, that would be great.

In any case, some interesting things to look at here. First of all in the roto leauges, the UPL has a definite Thuggish flavor, with the O.N. Thugs taking home 6 out of 8 championships in hoops, and 5 out of 9 in hardball. But that isn't to say that there isn't some competition in each. In both sports, there are repeat champs ('90 Reds with 3 baseball titles and Westy with 2 hoops titles). And those O.N. Thugs victories weren't all clean victories (a baseball tie w/ '90 Reds, and 2 hoops ties, one with IamJabrone, and one with Stephan). And recently, there have been some rumblings in baseball, where the '90 Reds have been champs 2 out of the last 3 years, and where IamJabrone has actually outperformed the O.N. Thugs two years running. In fact, the O.N. Thugs - IamJabrone interactions has actually started to look like a rivalry, with the two franchises going toe-to-toe on a regular basis, including this year's hoops rivalry which is essentially a dead heat between the two teams halfway through the season.

Perhaps the most impressive feat is in UPL Football, where resident savant I Giocatori has managed to win 4 times, with no one else able to claim more than one title. In fact, UPL Football has had the most diversity with 6 different champions over 9 seasons with 4 of those champs having never won a UPL title in another sport. Just for the record, we've had 4 champs in baseball and 2 in hoops.

We've had some unlikely champions throughout the UPL history. There was 2007 Football, where UPL newcomer JimmyDix not only rolls through the regular season as the #1 seed, but actually verifies things by rolling through the playoffs, en route to a championship in his first UPL experience, making UPL regulars like Schultzie and GenEric throw up in their mouths. There was 2004 Football, where Tweedledum and Tweedledummer played in probably the most unlikely football final in UPL history, with Tweedledum taking home the title, leaving Tweedledummer in 2nd place for the 2nd year in the row. This was a far cry from the Tweedledummer who neglected to look at the scoring rules, and decided that defense wins championships, and picked the Pittsburgh Defense in the 1st round back in 2002. And of course there was 2006 Baseball where Phatsnapper somehow took home a title, sandwiched between 17th place finishes every year before that and every year since.

And there have been some amazing wins by familiar faces. Like in 2006 Football, where I Giocatori backs into the playoffs with the 8th seed, at 6-7, only to punk Westy in the opening round, and then squeeze out two tough W's over the Jabrones and Thugs to win his 4th ring. There was 2007 Baseball and 2009 Basketball, where the O.N. Thugs were left for dead, lingering in 10th place or so at the half-way point, only to loudly storm back for championships, and betting on themselves along the way. In fact, the O.N. Thugs bet the Jabrones a dollar that they would finish ahead of them in 2007 Baseball. At the time, the O.N. Thugs were mired in 10th place, and the Jabrones were in 1st, so it appeared to be a sucker's bet, against the O.N. Thugs. What happened was a ridiculously rise into first, which resulted in the UPL Bill, which is signed by the Jabrones, carries the name of every UPL Baseball champion, and is currently the only UPL trophy. A similar story happened in 2008 Basketball, when the O.N. Thugs were decimated by injuries in the first half of the season, but managed to stay afloat long enough to wait for their players to get healthy and make a run at the title. Interestingly, in both instances, the O.N. Thugs actually managed to take a clean lead in the league, only to give back a half point on the last day of the season and end up in a tie for 1st.

As we open up the Twenty-Teen's, the UPL looks as strong as ever, with a healthy 14 team football season, and two healthy keeper leagues in baseball and basketball. Things should be exciting, as we move into decade #2 for the UPL.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

The Sins of the Past

Recently, longtime UPL owner Jeff posed the question of why his team was so bad:

Jeff: Why does IamJabberjaw's team suck so badly? Please, help me!

Naturally, this had to become a UPL post.

My thoughts:

Dear Jeff,

My friend, you are paying for sins of years past. Well, last year's, past...er... sins... yeah.

Last year, you got really, really unlucky with your first 2 picks (Brand and Baron Davis). Your 3rd round pick was Calderon, who was traded for Okeafor, who you ended up not keeping (but has been pretty decent this year). Your 4th pick was J-Rich who has been really disappointing in PHX. Your 5th pick was Okur, whose numbers have also been way off the last 2 years. Your 6th pick was Biedrins, who you've since let go, and who was running the Nellie Curse. And your best draft pick was Derrick Rose in the 8th, who you traded for Eric Gordon (a good keeper) and Michael Beasley (who you didn't keep, probably rightly so).

So not only did you get unlucky with the top two (who you need to anchor a team), you're 4th, 5th, and 6th picks have underachieved. And you probably made a bad trade moving D-Rose.

This means, that coming into this year, you were already stuck behind the 8-ball. Normally, when you fill up your list of 8 keepers, there are a couple players that are absolutely obvious (think, LBJ, Wade, Kobe, Dirk, etc.) - the guys who would be drafted in the first 2 rounds of a non-keeper league. You didn't have any of those guys, so you started at a huge disadvantage. Instead, you had about 10 guys who would have been picked between the 4th and 10th round of a non-keeper draft. That makes it really hard to win this year.

But there's good news. You have a chance, moving forward, to right the ship.

Brooks, Ariza, and Landry have been pretty good for HOU, especially w/ them giving up on T-Mac. That's a good thing for you. Brooks and Ariza probably stay really strong when Yao comes back, though Landry's value next year may go down. Count this was a win.

You made a strong trade for Joakim Noah, who's looking to be a 3rd round pick in non-keeper drafts next year, and is probably your best big. This also counts as a win for you. Your other strong big is Al Harrington, who puts up nice numbers in the Knicks system (18.5 and 6, with some 3PM). So he alleviates pressure on your 3PM. In fact, you have a lot of excess 3PM to trade. You should definitely try to do that.

Eric Gordon's proving himself to be a legit pro, and is a good 3PM guy. That's also good. He's a keeper. Now, you also have a couple other players who are a lot like Eric Gordon, in fantasy terms (Ben Gordon, J-Rich, Jamal Crawford). Can you get any value from these guys? Ben Gordon's the most reliable of the bunch, but is stuck in a strange Detroit situation. J-Rich has a ton of upside, but is the 3rd or 4th option in PHX (behind Nash, Amare, and probably Grant Hill) Crawford is playing well, but comes off the bench.

You've got a couple bigs you have to make decisions on in Nene and Okur. And similarly, you have to figure out what to do with Bibby, Harden, and Morrow.

Now, it should be clear where your rosters is anchored: Eric Gordon, Joakim Noah, Aaron Brooks, and probably Trevor Ariza. The efficiency is suspect, but your hustle stats will be solid. This leaves 4 slots, give or take, and you still need to fill with keepers. The thing to remember is that when you're drafting next year, you're drafting no worse than a 9th rounder. So, the goal is to get as many players who should be 8th round picks or better.

This means, that as the season progresses, players may get dropped because they're hurt. You need to be all over that (for example, if someone like T-Mac or Yao gets dropped, they're great to have on your roster, since you have a ton of flexibility). This also means that you should continue working the trade game, big time. There are definitely teams that could use some 3PM, in the form of Ben Gordon, J-Rich, Crawford, Okur, or maybe even Bibby. You should target younger players with high ceilings, even if they haven't achieved a ton, yet. Basically, you need to hit a home run or two, and it doesn't really matter that much if you strike out. Guys like Gordon, Crawford, etc. will be available in the draft next year.

I think that overall, the question that anyone has to ask themselves is if their team is building or if their team is contending, because there are two very different strategies for these two scenarios. (Note, there could very well be more than these 2 modes, but let's keep things simple for now). If you're building, your goal is to maximize the number of obvious keepers on your roster. If you're contending, you're shopping for parts. So, if you're a builder, then you need to market your parts faster than the other builders, and you need to look for potential keepers in return.

For example, if you offer the Jabrones, say, Ben Gordon for Gilbert Arenas or Anthony Randolph, he may look you up on that. Your roster is in a much better spot to take on a question mark than his is. He's looking to win a title (however misguided that attempt is), so he may sell a piece of the future for a shot now, if it gives him roster flexibility. Take advantage of that.

Best of luck in your future endeavors.

Warmest regards,
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

2009 UPL Football Post-Season Awards

As I was searching for a template for the 2009 UPL Football Post-Season Awards posting, I realized that I must have neglected to put one up for 2008... so I suppose that I may go back and sneak in a posting when I get some motivation... but in any case, here are the awards for 2009:

	First Team	Second Team
QB:	Drew Brees - Dino	Peyton Manning - D.Rose
WR:	Andre Johnson - Jabrone	DeSean Jackson - Westy
WR:	Wes Welker - GB Slappers	Brandon Marshall - O.N. Thugs
RB:	Chris Johnson - Dino	Steven Jackson - Westy
RB:	MoJo Drew - FireZook	Ray Rice - Jabrone
TE:	Dallas Clark - GenErics	Antonio Gates - FireZook
Flex:	Adrian Peterson - Jabrone	Thomas Jones - D.Rose
W/T Flex:	Randy Moss - O.N. Thugs	Larry Fitzgerald - Shufflers
K:	David Akers - SuckFootballs	Nate Kaeding - O.N. Thugs
DEF:	New Orleans - O.N. Thugs	Phiadelphia - Shufflers
DB:	Charles Woodson - 12th Place	Darren Sharper - GenErics
DL:	Jared Allen - D.Rose	Elvis Dumerville - 12th Place
LB:	Patrick Willis - JimmyDix	Brian Cushing - O.N. Thugs
D Flex:	Jon Beason - Jabrone	David Harris - O.N. Thugs

	Honorable Mention
QB:	Aaron Rodgers - I Giocatori
WR:	Reggie Wayne - FireZook
WR:	Miles Austin - Dino
RB:	Frank Gore - Westy
RB:	Ricky Williams - O.N. Thugs
TE:	Vernon Davis - Dino
Flex:	Joseph Addai - Dino
W/T Flex:	Steve Smith (NY) - Dino
K:	Rob Bironas - Westy
DEF:	San Francisco - FireZook
DB:	Brian Dawkins - n/a
DL:	Julius Peppers - SuckFootballs
LB:	Paul Posluszny - Dino
D Flex:	David Hawthorne - I Giocatori

And of course, we do have some newer categories, the All-UPL Team Killers, as well as the All-UPL Upside Specials, which are pretty self-explanatory, once you see the lists. Basically, these are the draft/FA decisions that helped kill or make the teams that made these choices.

	Team Killers	Upside Specials
QB:	Jay Cutler - SuckFootballs	Brett Favre - SuckFootballs
WR:	Calvin Johnson - Reggie'sBush	Miles Austin - Dino
WR:	Dwayne Bowe - Reggie'sBush	Steve Smith (NYG) - Dino
RB:	Brian Westbrook - D.Rose	Jamaal Charles - FireZook
RB:	Steve Slaton - Reggie'sBush	Ricky Williams - O.N. Thugs
TE:	Chris Cooley - Westy	Vernon Davis - Dino
Flex:	Clinton Portis - Jabrone	Darren Sproles - O.N. Thugs
W/T Flex:	Antonio Bryant - D.Rose	Sidney Rice - Westy
K:	Stephen Gostkowski - Westy	Nate Kaeding - O.N. Thugs
DEF:	New York Giants - SuckFootballs	New Orleans - O.N. Thugs
DB:	Justin Miller - GB Slappers	Charles Woodson - 12th Place
DL:	Willie Williams - GB Slappers	Jared Allen - D.Rose
LB:	Mike Vrabel - GB Slappers	Patrick Willis - JimmyDix
D Flex:	Allen Rossum - FireZook	David Harris - O.N. Thugs

Note, the everything below is pending the outcome of the Bears game tonight, as Superbowl Shuffling's Matt Forte needs 65.48 points to pull off a miracle upset.

UPL MVP: Drew Brees - Dino's Revenge
UPL Offensive Player of the Year: Chris Johnson - Dino's Revenge
UPL Defensive Player of the Year: Patick Willis - JimmyDixSpecials
UPL Golden Toe Award: David Akers - SuckMyFootballs
UPL Offensive Rookie of the Year: Percy Harvin - Dino's Revenge
UPL Defensive Rookie of the Year: Brian Cushing - O.N. Thugs
UPL Comeback Player of the Year: Carson Palmer - IAmJabrone
UPL Out of Nowhere Player: Brent Celek - JimmyDixSpecials
Team of the Year: Dino's Revenge

Naturally, there were a few strange happenings along the way.

Most Lopsided Trade: Greg Olson (to Westy) for Jamaal Charles (to Dino)
Starting in week 10 (the first week after the trade), Charles' point totals: 29.20, 31.40, 24.80, 15.45, and in the 3 weeks of the playoffs: 34.35, 30.70, and 19.45. The next time you hear Westy whine about being "unlucky" remind him of this trade. And if you hear Curran brag, remind him about his gift from Westy. Not that I'm bitter or anything.

Much Ado About Nothing Trades: Wes Welker, Kellen Winslow, and Brett Favre (to GB Slappers) for Adrian Peterson, Todd Heap, and Chansi Stuckey (to SuckFootballs).
You'd figure that a trade featuring this many stars would have major championship implications. Instead, all it did was remove one team from playoff contention (SuckFootballs), while not doing enough to get the other team into the playoffs (GB Slappers). All told, it's pretty clear that OD got the shaft on this one (especially since Cutler just got worse and worse). But still. Not much of an effect here.

Whoops, I Should've Started That Guy: Jerome Harrison - IAmJabrone (Week 15).
It's not often that you see a running back reel off 286 yards on 34 carries, and score 3 TD and go for 56.10 fantasy points. And it's even less often that you see him on the bench, in favor of some dude named LeSean McCoy, who has set the record for the most capital letters in a name. And it's even less often that you see this mistake cost a team a return trip to the championship game (and probably back-to-back titles). The moral of this story is never trust someone with 4 capital letters in their name.

Laying an Egg When it Matters, and Scoring When It Doesn't: BradyToMoss - O.N. Thugs (Weeks 15 and 16).
Naturally, when it's for all the marbles in Week 15, we see BradyToMoss put up a combined 25.85 points, short of not only the 52.61 that the duo had averaged all season, but also short of the 36.61 that was projected (which would have won by a tiny margin). Then with the pressure off of, in the 3rd Place game, when they're projected for 48.18 points, BradyToMoss go nuts, and combine for 7 TD's, and put up a combined 81.73 points, and led the O.N. Thugs to the high score of the week.

Deja vu All Over Again: Superbowl Shuffling vs. the O.N. Thugs (2008 and 2009).
The O.N. Thugs are up by (number between 30 to 40) points, going into a night game, with Superbowl Shuffling's (name of black QB) needing to score some points to win. The (name of black QB) struggled early on, but was able to right the ship and squeeze out a victory for Superbowl Shuffling. Superbowl Shuffling was unable to complete the UPL Championship, when they were defeated in the finals by (eventual UPL champion). The loss to the (name of black QB)-led Superbowl Shuffling relegated the O.N. Thugs to the consolation bracket where they would have outscored (eventual UPL champion).

High-Level Performances: Dino's Revenge, O.N. Thugs, IAmJabrone, and Superbowl Shuffling.
All told, Dino's performance was one for the ages. Not only did he shatter the regular season points scored record by being the first team over 2500 points in the regular season (though, this is the first season we've used 4 IDP's), he continued the dominance in the playoffs by averaging about 213 points per game in the playoffs. Nearly as solid was the O.N. Thugs' regular season run with the 2nd highest all-time point total, but also a near-perfect 12-1 run. Their playoffs weren't terrible, but a hiccup in the semifinals has allowed the O.N. Thugs' to put a slightly different stamp on the UPL record books. Instead of being the best UPL Football team in history, this is now the best UPL team to not win a championship. The other semifinal teams were also impressive in the playoffs, posting the 4 highest totals in the 1st round of the playoffs. With the possible exception of Superbowl Shuffling in the finals, each score will be over 180, with a cumulative average of at least 202 points scored (likely 203 or 204, pending Matt Forte's performance on Monday Night Football). And as noted above, this also includes IAmJabrone's benching of Jerome Harrison's 56 fantasy points in the semifinals!

In any case, 2009 UPL Football was one for the record books. We'll see what the new decade brings.

-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)

UPL Basketball Preview (Part III)

For the third part of the 2009-10 UPL Basketball Preview, we're going to use a slightly different format than we did in Part I and Part II, which looked at the 7 teams that were likely to contend this year. We'll take a brief look at each team's 2009-10 outlook, along with some fantasy stat projections. But we'll take a little more time looking at more strategic considerations, rather the more tactical considerations that were the focus of the first two parts of the UPL preview.


Floor Burns:
Last year's 8th place team. UPL veteran, though not a regular podium team.

2009-10 Outlook:Not likely to finish in top 4. Many question marks revolving around real-life playing time and roles on offense (Duhon/Nate Robinson, Millsap, Richard Jefferson, Capt. Jack, Marion, Odom, 'Sheed, Varejao). Kevin Martin is looking like legit scorer (though currently injured). Joakim Noah seems to have emerged as a 10 and 10 sort of guy, who chips in STL and BLK, as well. Probably should have kept Rodney Stuckey (currently about 17PTS, 6REB, and 4AST per game).

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): 3PM
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, PTS, OREB, REB, STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%, AST, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 58 points. May be able to move some 3PM to get help. Needs major help at PG.

Who is the Core?: Kevin Martin, Joakim Noah, Lamar Odom, and Mo Williams? If these guys are the ones to build around, then this is not an ideal core. However, they are the best players, and thus, the most attractive trade pieces. If you can get 2 Tremendous Upside Potential (TUP) guys in return on a trade, you probably have to make the move (particularly if it's Odom).

The Deadweight: There probably needs to be a roster purge. 'Sheed's value is nil, save for teams desperate for 3PM. Duhon's offense is atrocious, and Nate Robinson has fallen out of favor in NY. Foye and Barbosa are playing reserve minutes, and putting up reserve stats. These players have little trade value, but are taking up valuable roster space.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: May need to play the timing game, to sell some of the question marks when they're hot. Unfortunately, Capt. Jack's trade to Charlotte probably hurts his fantasy value, since GS played with a very high tempo. Also, Shawn Marion's value has just fallen through the floor since he left PHX. Millsap hasn't had the playing time with Boozer back in the Utah lineup. If these players can be moved at a reasonable price, then there shouldn't be any sentiment with these guys.

Recommended Moves: Build around Kevin Martin and Joakim Noah. Find a taker for Mo Williams and/or Lamar Odom. Someone will take a chance on 18 PTS, 4AST, and 2.5 3PM per game on good efficiency. And 9 PTS, 10REB, and 5AST is a nice balance, and could easily find a place on a team with good scoring. You should be able to get 3 TUP guys out of these two, preferably at least one PG in that mix. Try to find a taker for Duhon or 'Sheed, which actually may be possible, given their strength in AST and 3PM. The goal is to end the season with 5-6 clear keepers, and then use the draft to continue the rebuilding process, with a chance at the podium 2011-2012.


Milwaukee Bricks:
Last year's 9th place team. UPL veteran, typically a middle of the pack team.

2009-10 Outlook: Of last year's bottom 4, this team is probably the most stable, but not a ton of upside (not super likely to challenge for a crown soon). Keeper core provide a solid base in PTS and 3PM. However, there is a lack of depth everywhere else. Has already dropped one keeper, Andris Biedrins. Was probably helped in this year's draft more than any other team (Ben Gordon, Jamal Crawford, Kendrick Perkins, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks). Baron Davis and Elton Brand are HUGE question marks. Ironically, Davis signed with the Clip to play w/ Brand, only to have Brand bail and sign in Philly. I wonder if the Bricks are tempting basketball fate by playing them together.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): 3PM
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, PTS, STL,
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FG%, OREB, REB, AST, BLK, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 55 points. May be able to move some 3PM to get help. Needs major help at PG.

Who is the Core?: A major issue is that there are a lot of guys who are pretty good, but not great scorers, but don't really help w/ REB or AST. The best of the bunch is Eric Gordon, because he is so young. After that there needs to be some educated guesswork. Ben Gordon is only 26, and is probably a 2nd piece to build around. Problem is that these guys don't help across the board. Trevor Ariza is a nice addition for hustle stats (and has been scoring well this year), but his FG% is concerning. Baron Davis and Elton Brand (an ironic pair, given their problems with each other in real life) are huge question marks, and you have to figure out whether you can build around them.

The Deadweight: Perhaps surprisingly, there aren't a ton of guys that you look at on this roster, and just say, they don't belong. Guys that I'm not personally fond of are Jamal Crawford (16 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST on 44.5% shooting), Jason Terry (17 PTS, 3REB, 3 AST, on 42.8% shooting) and Chuck Hayes (6 PTS, 7 REB, 2 STL, and 50% FT shooting), but even they're not terrible, and could be situational plays.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: Obviously, decisions on Baron Davis and Elton Brand are crucial. See if you can't more either Crawford or Terry (or ideally, both), and get a couple TUP guys. You can't really win with those guys both playing major minutes for you. Jason Richardson is a mirage - 17 PTS, 2.5 3PM, and 6 REB isn't bad, especially for a good FG% guy. But the lack of AST, STL, and BLK strain the rest of the lineup. Okur is 30 now, and seems to be a 15 and 7 guy, not a 18 and 9 guy, but getting some 3PM from your C spot is nice. I don't know if you want to build around that. Must upgrade a big - hard to win with Landry as your PF.

Recommended Moves: Banking on Baron Davis and Elton Brand isn't the worst thing in the world. Davis' FG% is below 40%, but he's still putting up 16 and 7 and has a high A/TO. If you can get a legit big, then move Davis, but no need to panic there. Brand finally showed some signs of life with a huge game (19 and 11, w/ 6 BLK, 7 OREB, and 3STL). Hang on to Eric Gordon, and try to move Okur, JRich, along with Crawford/Terry/Hayes/Landry. If the right deal comes along for Ben Gordon, he could be had, as well. Moving into next year with a core of Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Aaron Brooks, Ben Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Elton Brand, and a couple upgraded bigs wouldn't be the worst thing int he world. This team could compete for a top-half finish next year.


Love T'Wolves:
Last year's 10th place team. UPL veteran, but no UPL podium time (though has been the #1 seed going into football playoffs).

2009-10 Outlook: This team is the most likely to rise from the bottom of the league into the top half, and of the non-O.N. Thugs teams, I would rate Love T'Wolves as being one of the 4 most likely to win a UPL championship within the next 3 years (with Sparty, elder Westy, and Chowtime). Great building blocks in Bosh, Durant, and Rondo, who anchor PTS, REB, and AST. Less reliable as a person, but very reliable in fantasy is Zach Randolph who just goes along for 20 and 10 on good efficiency every year. Currently have some stopgaps, like Andre Miller and Larry Hughes, who aren't going to be keepers down the road. If this team can figure out who the next 4 keepers are, particularly if they bring in quality guards into the fold, this will be a high upside team moving forward.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): OREB, REB
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FG%,FT%, PTS, STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): 3PM, AST, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 66 points. This number could easily go up, with a couple moves, particularly at G.

Who is the Core?: This is much more easily answered, and frankly, this core is right up there with anyone else in the league. Bosh, Durant, Z-Bo, and Rondo give you a nice start, particularly since Bosh and Durant make up for Rondo's lack of scoring. Rudy Gay is a scorer, and right on the cusp of being a legit keeper, but his AST and A/TO numbers keep him from being an obvious keeper. Thompson and Beasley have all sorts of upside, given their youth. And of course, the team's namesake, Kevin Love is still coming off injury and hasn't played this year.

The Deadweight: Josh Howard and Ronnie Brewer don't seem to be good enough to justify roster spots right now. And hanging on to injured players like Howard (and Love, and Yi), also restrict flexibility. But there aren't exactly obvious moves to be made.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: There's a bit of a wait-and-see going on w/ guys like Gay, Love, (I wanted to make sure that we put Gay, followed by Love, here, in that order), Villanueva, Beasley, and Yi. So, the moves need to wait until we get a better picture of how these guys will play out.

Recommended Moves: The best option may actually be to try to move Zach Randolph to get legit quality at G. This is especially the case if you think that Jason Thompson or Kevin Love project out to be roughly on par with Z-Bo in 2 years. Similarly, moving someone from the Villanueva, Beasley, and Yi trio to get an upside G is a winning move. Could potentially overpay for a 15 PTS, 5 AST guard, and have it be a net win, if it's a younger guard. The core of Bosh, Durant, Rondo, Thompson, Gay, Love, the best of Villanueva/Beasley/Yi, and a quality guard looks to be a nice core for the coming years.


Phatsnapper:
Last year's last place team. UPL veteran, a feast (1 UPL Baseball Title) or famine owner, with more famine than feasts.

2009-10 Outlook:Not likely to finish in top 4. Major question mark is how involved the owner will be. Nice core of Nash, Amare, Ray Allen, Jamison, and Bogut. Drafting Redd, Deng, and Maggette is helpful. TJ Ford appears to be a keeper bust, while Chandler and Kenyon Martin are sort of borderline. This team really needs the 25 and 9 version of Amare, not the current 19 and 8 incarnation. However, Nash seems to have found the fountain of youth, and it would do wonders if nash could share w/ Allen and Jamison. Deng is having a nice bounce-back year, as is Maggette. Jamison and Redd's injuries have killed the start of the season.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, 3PM, PTS, OREB, REB, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): AST, STL, A/TO
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 58 points. Actual projections are discounted, due to lack of owner involvement.

Who is the Core?: Can you really build long-term around Nash, Allen, and Amare? And Allen's scoring is down to about 15 points. Redd and Jamison seem to be keepers, but are on the wrong side of 30, and have injury histories (though Jamison has been pretty healthy since his first couple years in the league). Bogut and Deng are both young, and still have a lot of upside, despite being nicked up thus far in their careers... lots of injury-related questions here.

The Deadweight: There needs to some editing of the roster. You can't really play TJ Ford or Z right now, nor do they have trade value. DeRozan and Courtney Lee have some upside, but you can't leverage that right now, since they're just not putting up the numbers.

Likely Moves That Have to be Made: Need to get younger and have less exposure to injury risk. You've got another 2 years to milk out of Nash, maybe 3 out of Allen and Jamison. The problem is that the rest of the lineup isn't good enough to compete. Probably need to keep the core of Deng, Bogut, and Amare.

Recommended Moves: Get quality in return for Jamison, Ray Allen, and Michael Redd, particularly young, quality guards. Ride Nash for the next 2 years, since he'll stabilize your AST numbers, and hope that he'll play for a couple years after that. Build on Nash, Amare, Deng, and Bogut, and the guards that you trade for, with the goal of having 7 legit keepers at the end of this year, with 2 guards to put around Nash. This team probably can built to compete faster than Floor Burns or the Bricks, but isn't nearly as likely as Love T'Wolves to threaten the UPL powers-that-be.

UPL Basketball Preview (Part II)

We are continuing on with our UPL Basketball Preview. Part I took a look at last year's podium teams. Now, we're going to look at 4 teams that appear to be contenders for the UPL podium.

IAmJabrone:
Last year's 4th place team. UPL Career Triple Crown (2005 Hoops, 2008 Baseball, 2008 Football). Generally expected to finish 2nd or 3rd, and generally expects to finish 2nd or 3rd.

2009-10 Outlook: Strong keeper core, based on Yahoo! pre-rank. Anchored by legit fantasy superstar D-Wade (who mysteriously fell to 9 in the original keeper draft). Keepers may be top-heavy (variability with Horford and D-Rose, production decline and lack of shooting ability from Josh Smith). Carmelo may put up over 30 PPG in high tempo Denver system. Current roster has an extreme lack of depth (Anthony Randolph was somewhat strange 1st draft pick, Sessions is not playable, Lawson is young and a reserve, T-Mac is out)

Potential Injury Impact: High. D-Wade, Gilbert Arenas, Jermaine O'Neal, Rip Hamilton are all being counted on, and all are injury prone players. T-Mac was a lottery ticket, but is out for at least the first month.

Positional Battles: Not many, due to roster composition. May be tempted to play Anthony Randolph, as he was #1 overall pick in draft this year.

Book a UPL Title If: Everyone stays healthy. Josh Smith's regression was a fluke. Anthony Randolph is legit.

Life Becomes Easier If: Horford and D-Rose both continue to improve. T-Mac comes back healthy in December. Carmelo's early season play is for real.

Will Go Down in Flames If: D-Wade goes down. Can't get help in free agency.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): PTS, AST
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FG%, OREB, REB, BLK, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FT%, 3PM,
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 66 points. Range from 60 to 72. Likely top half team, but lack of depth will make trading a more difficult option. Will need more luck than usual to make a legit run.


Westy's Balltastics:
Last year's 5th place team, who still can't believe they didn't win. 2-time UPL Basketball Champ (2003, 2004). Typically a top 4 UPL team. Has difficulty in trade talks, often due to poor application of game theory or human psychology.

2009-10 Outlook: Strong top-6 keepers. Then team talent falls off, as evidenced by keeping Luis Scola. Lots of help in the draft, particularly with Marc Gasol and Channing Frye's early play. Will have a solid core, though there may be a lack of elite scoring. May run into issues with real-life playing time w/ Conley and AI. 3PM will hinge on Channing Frye. Will have a lot of flexibility in playing for specific stat categories, and has bigs to move. Lack of obvious quality at PG.

Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Top 2 players (Al Jefferson and KG) are coming off injury, and need to be healthy. Caron Butler and Devin Harris always seem to be nicked up, but never too major. However, team is relatively deep and has statistical flexibility save for AST.

Positional Battles: Competition between Conley/Iverson/Bibby for at least 1 starting spot. May need to fill 2 spots w/ Gasol/Scola/Frye.

Book a UPL Title If: Al Jefferson is healthy and as effective as last year. KG hasn't aged in dog years.

Life Becomes Easier If: Gasol and Frye continue to play as well as they have. Another PG emerges, either from roster, free agency, or trade.

Will Go Down in Flames If: The manager misplays roster. Injury bug hits again

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, STL
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): FT%, PTS, OREB, REB, AST, BLK, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 71 points. Range from 68 to 81. Should get back on to podium after last year's collapse. Legit contender, w/ enough roster flexibility to get extra points, but no 1st tier start to ride. Upside potential as high as anyone else in league.


Chowtime:
Last year's 6th place team. Typically a top-half UPL team. Has 2 podium finishes, both of which came at the expense of Westy on the last day of the season.

2009-10 Outlook: Top 4 keepers are ranked ridiculously high (Dirk, Granger, Gasol, Vinsanity). Then team talent falls off dramatically. Needed help in the draft, and got it when teams fell asleep at the wheel (or bet on Anthony Randolph), netting Blake Griffin. Yao, Flynn, and Curry are potential keepers, but may reduce the ability to win this year. Team should be really efficient, but may not have enough of the counting stats.

Potential Injury Impact: Huge - already happening. Yao takes spot, and reduces flexibility. Vinsanity is always nicked. Griffin has been hit with the Clipper Curse. Gasol hasn't played, yet. Already may be forced to surrender games played at C. If anything else bad happens, may not be able to recover.

Positional Battles: Ideally, between Flynn and Curry, you only play 1, but both are being forced into action. Ditto for Thaddeus Young, Battier, and Blatche.

Book a UPL Title If: Kaman keeps up the 22 and 10 pace. Yao somehow comes back this year and is good. Griffin, Curry, and Flynn are 1-2-3 in ROY voting.

Life Becomes Easier If: Injuries let up.

Will Go Down in Flames If: There isn't a real change soon - it's hard to carry 4 injured players on a 14 man roster. All 10 of the other guys have to stay healthy, and they all have to be good!

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, FT%, 3PM, A/TO
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): PTS, AST, STL, BLK
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): OREB, REB
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 72 points. Range from 62 to 82. Legit contender, but may not be able to get help w/ a trade. If Blake Griffin comes back and is putting up 8+ rebounds per game, that could change the calculus very quickly. Things could go south for this team, more so than others.


SuckMyDribblingBalls:
Last year's 7th place team. Typically a top 4 UPL team, but stopped actively managing team last year, due to the presence of craz Mexican in the house. Now that the divorce is final, should have more time to manage team.

2009-10 Outlook: Strong in the middle, with Duncan and Howard anchoring REB and BLK. Adding on Oden and Okafor essentially locks up BLK, with one of the two looking like attractive trade bait. Kobe will help with points, but it may not be enough, if you need to carry Kidd and Oden in the lineup (both at about 8 PPG). Unhealthy fascination with Rudy Fernandez, who probably should not have been kept - Jeff Green would have helped this team immensely.

Potential Injury Impact: Moderate. Obviously, Kobe must stay healthy. Lots of depth with the bigs, but is thin at guard. Really dependent on Kidd for AST and A/TO. Grant Hill is old, Duncan is getting old, Okafor and Oden are injury prone. Things could go downhill very quickly.

Positional Battles: Ideally, either Felton or Augustin step up and become legit fantasy options. Also, Okafor or Oden (probably don't want both starting)

Book a UPL Title If: Kobe is Kobe. Dwight Howard learns a 2nd low-post move. One of the extra bigs is traded for a legit 3PM and AST option.

Life Becomes Easier If: Both Felton and Augustin emerge as legit options. Tayshaun Prince finally makes The Leap. Okafor gets along with CP3.

Will Go Down in Flames If: Injury to Kidd or Kobe. Keeps playing Rudy Fernandez too mcuh.

Elite Stat Categories (9-11 points): FG%, OREB, REB, BLK
Competitive Stat Categories (4-8 points): PTS, AST, STL, A/TO
Weak Stat Categories (1-3 points): FT%, 3PM
Quick and Dirty Fantasy Projection: 72 points. Range from 65 to 79 points. Team will be very good in rebounding and blocks, but needs help scoring. Should be able to move a big and get some stats back in return.