First, check out the latest TMR column on fantasy football, here. One little blurb strikes me as very interesting.
The idea is also this: Fantasy sports, specifically fantasy football, is about minimizing risk. Luck will always have some part in it, so when you can minimize risk, you have a better chance of success.
Here in the UPL, we've been trying to do that through our league formats, from the get go. But TMR just went off and said, what we've been doing all along. His statement on drafting for yardage and for touches is telling. That's how we've designed our league.
Part of minimizing risk during the draft is understanding who the best player available currently is, and to factor that information with position scarcity.
As a result, I say you go running back in the first round, and then it's best player available. Points come from everywhere, but they still seem to come most consistently from running backs. The difference now is that the point differential is not as great and there are more running backs contributing to point totals (but contributing less in terms of total points) than before.
TMR is starting to see the light. And even that may not be quite adequate for what we do here in the UPL. The UPL has been rather progressive in this view. This is why the most successful team in UPL Football prefers to draft Peyton Manning first, and follow him up with Marvin Harrison. This is why you've seen the 2nd most successful team in UPL Football (yours truly) go with players such as Terrell Owens and Randy Moss in the first round, and jump on certain QB's a round or two early.
Why? Think of it this way. Sure, you know that there probably will be 2 or 3 QB's that will perform equal to Peyton. Are you sure who it will be? Do you want to gamble a 3rd or 4th round pick on Big Ben (last year, great bet - 2 seasons ago, not so much)? How about Brett Favre (last year, great bet - 2 season ago, not so much)? Carson Palmer (probably one of the more sure things, actually)? Tom Brady (also puts up good numbers in the UPL, since we value accuracy)? Matt Hasselback? Marc Bulger? Derek Anderson? I don't know. What's the value of that certainty? And more importantly, do you want to entrust a high pick on that chance? Not saying that this is the right strategy, but this is the mindset that you probably see with folks who draft Peyton in the first round. And in the UPL, that has been a historically strong strategy.
In any case, you want to lock down big chunks of points with your early rounds, and then speculate on the mid-late rounds. This is the risk minimization that TMR was talking about.
In any case, best of luck in your drafts. And get ready for UPL Football, which is coming soon.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Making Moves
The last couple weeks have been a bit quiet, both here in the UPL Blog, and in the UPL. Really, the one move of note was a trade that's worked out well for both parties to this point, and probably will be good for both of us. Dan Haren for Carlos Quentin. I move some offense over to Greg, in return for a good starting pitcher. Quentin's already hit 2 HR's since the break, and Haren tossed a gem in his first start after the break.
And in order to back fill my OF, I accepted a trade that Westy had offered, Aaron Harang for Matt Kemp. There had been rumblings about Harang going on the DL for a few days, and he was finally placed on the DL the Sunday before the All-Star break. There was a little controversy, since Westy had offered the trade before Harang had gone on the DL, so we're keeping the trade tentative - if Harang doesn't come off the DL on July 23rd, as scheduled, Westy can undo the trade.
So that's all well and good. But what's interesting is how rosters evolve over the course of a season. Earlier in the season, the concern with my roster was my starting pitching. However, at this point, the starting pitching appears to be a strength of my roster, as I have traded for Ben Sheets and Dan Haren, picked up Edinson Volquez, Manny Parra, Ricky Nolasco, and Jered Weaver off of free agency. None of my starters were drafted by me. I've been fortunate with my closers (Francisco Cordero since the break, notwithstanding), as they've been rocks all season. I was able to trade away the closer off of a winning team (Kevin Gregg), and I'm still competing for the lead in saves.
As it stands, I think that my pitching will pick up points down the road, my offense should cruise back to the top of the league, and I've got a good chance of heading into football season looking for a Roland Slam. Of course, that's happened before, with only one Roland Slam to show for it. But I digress.
The point of this post is to talk about how the composition of a roster evolves. Most teams start with some noticeable holes at the start of a season. But smart moves can shore up a lot of holes. What's the secret? A few things come to mind. Obviously, you have to get luck w/ your free agent pickups. I got real lucky w/ Volquez. No one expected a Cy Young type season, but that's what he's put up so far. Pure luck. But, I did my homework with Parra, Weaver, and Nolasco. Weaver's always had the stuff - you just need to wait for him to get his control in line, and he'd be a stud. Add on that he's playing for a good defensive team, and you're in business. Parra had worse peripheral numbers (lots of walks, really), but had incredible home/away splits. I picked him up planning to only play him in home games, but he's been a stud since I got him, so he's become a regular starter. And Nolasco's been solid for the Fish all year, and I was trying to figure out how good he was based on his stats. Oddly enough, what pushed it over the top was later the same day, Peter Gammons raving about how he's got #1 starter stuff. And he's been pretty good since I've picked him up. So, you have to get lucky and do your homework with free agents. But this year, I've swung more trades than usual. What's worked differently? I've take a few approaches.
First of all, take smart bets on proven commodities. One of my most important trades was trading Aramis Ramirez for a nicked up Ben Sheets. How can you just move one of the best 3B in the game? You have backup plans. At that point, I had Troy Glaus and Scott Rolen. I assumed that at least one of them was going to have a good season, though Rolen was coming off injury, and Glaus started terribly. Based on historical numbers, that was a safe bet, as Rolen has quietly put together a career w/ an outside shot at the HOF, and Glaus has been almost as good, but even more unnoticed. Since the trade, Glaus has been a stud at 3B, and currently has stats about the same as A-Ram.
Next, stockpile with the intent to move other pieces. The more I think about it, how the A-Ram trade was able to happen was partially influenced by a different factor. I had offense to spare. There's no doubting that I lucked out w/ the Pujols trade. At the time, I wasn't convinced that the trade was going to be that overwhelming of a deal for me, particularly given my lack of starting pitching. Brett Myers has been awful this year, and Konerko has been hurt quite a bit. As a complete aside, look at my predicted HR, OBP and SLG numbers w/ Pujols. Just about dead on after 60% of the season... sick, and my R and RBI numbers are off because of the injuries at C and SS. The SB numbers are much better, though, based on my moves.
In any case, one thing that this allowed me to do was to have a known quantity at 1B, as well as a stud at UTIL (Teixeira), and know that my offense was going to be good. This let me take some chances in free agency at C (hello, Ryan Doumit), which worked out, but I also knew that it wouldn't kill me if it didn't. And just as importantly, it let me pick up Juan Pierre (and Wily Tavaras), knowing that I could have a guy who couldn't hit worth a lick actually help out my team, if he stole bases. But more to the point, it let me deal Pat Burrell (who's put up a stud season) for Alex Rios (who's picked it up quite a bit lately), and get back in contention in SB.
Another example of stockpiling was with closers. Early on, I had 4 closers, and was high up in the standings in saves. But, I traded for Kevin Gregg, anyway (part of the A-Ram deal). Why? Because I knew that a closer could be moved. I wasn't sure which one, but I knew that if I had 5 out of 30 closers, then there'd be at least one team looking to trade with me. That worked itself out rather quickly in the Burrell-Rios trade, which also included Kevin Gregg for Carlos Quentin.
And I think the most important factor is to look for teams that you can trade your strengths to, in return for areas that you're weak in. That's sort of obvious. But it's also important to give value to get value. One of the things that seems to annoy UPL folks are the garbage trade offers for players that are about to be dropped because of lack of production. I try to avoid that (though at some points, I may overvalue my players), and give quality for different quality. This was the Quentin for Haren trade. And the Burrell/Gregg for Rios/Quentin trade. And the A-Ram/Oilver Perez for Kevin Gregg/Ben Sheets trade. And really, the Konerko/Myers for Pujols trade was too (that one just hasn't worked out great for CJ, though I expected both Konerko and Myers to play better).
So the three tactics for trading? Bet on proven quantities whether it's who you're acquiring, or who you're backfilling. Stockpile to trade. Trade value for value. Also, I'd say that it helps to have a sense of what you want your roster to eventually look like. I knew that I needed starting pitching. Starting pitching can be hard to get. I had to get enough talent in other scarce areas (or other elite talent) so that I could get after pitching later. If you can combine this with some smart/lucky free agent pickups, you'll have a shot at the W.
Will I get the W? Beats me. But I think that the Roland slam is looking like a reasonable 15-1 shot, a little off from my initial 10-1 guess (which is still pretty good, if you really think about it).
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
And in order to back fill my OF, I accepted a trade that Westy had offered, Aaron Harang for Matt Kemp. There had been rumblings about Harang going on the DL for a few days, and he was finally placed on the DL the Sunday before the All-Star break. There was a little controversy, since Westy had offered the trade before Harang had gone on the DL, so we're keeping the trade tentative - if Harang doesn't come off the DL on July 23rd, as scheduled, Westy can undo the trade.
So that's all well and good. But what's interesting is how rosters evolve over the course of a season. Earlier in the season, the concern with my roster was my starting pitching. However, at this point, the starting pitching appears to be a strength of my roster, as I have traded for Ben Sheets and Dan Haren, picked up Edinson Volquez, Manny Parra, Ricky Nolasco, and Jered Weaver off of free agency. None of my starters were drafted by me. I've been fortunate with my closers (Francisco Cordero since the break, notwithstanding), as they've been rocks all season. I was able to trade away the closer off of a winning team (Kevin Gregg), and I'm still competing for the lead in saves.
As it stands, I think that my pitching will pick up points down the road, my offense should cruise back to the top of the league, and I've got a good chance of heading into football season looking for a Roland Slam. Of course, that's happened before, with only one Roland Slam to show for it. But I digress.
The point of this post is to talk about how the composition of a roster evolves. Most teams start with some noticeable holes at the start of a season. But smart moves can shore up a lot of holes. What's the secret? A few things come to mind. Obviously, you have to get luck w/ your free agent pickups. I got real lucky w/ Volquez. No one expected a Cy Young type season, but that's what he's put up so far. Pure luck. But, I did my homework with Parra, Weaver, and Nolasco. Weaver's always had the stuff - you just need to wait for him to get his control in line, and he'd be a stud. Add on that he's playing for a good defensive team, and you're in business. Parra had worse peripheral numbers (lots of walks, really), but had incredible home/away splits. I picked him up planning to only play him in home games, but he's been a stud since I got him, so he's become a regular starter. And Nolasco's been solid for the Fish all year, and I was trying to figure out how good he was based on his stats. Oddly enough, what pushed it over the top was later the same day, Peter Gammons raving about how he's got #1 starter stuff. And he's been pretty good since I've picked him up. So, you have to get lucky and do your homework with free agents. But this year, I've swung more trades than usual. What's worked differently? I've take a few approaches.
First of all, take smart bets on proven commodities. One of my most important trades was trading Aramis Ramirez for a nicked up Ben Sheets. How can you just move one of the best 3B in the game? You have backup plans. At that point, I had Troy Glaus and Scott Rolen. I assumed that at least one of them was going to have a good season, though Rolen was coming off injury, and Glaus started terribly. Based on historical numbers, that was a safe bet, as Rolen has quietly put together a career w/ an outside shot at the HOF, and Glaus has been almost as good, but even more unnoticed. Since the trade, Glaus has been a stud at 3B, and currently has stats about the same as A-Ram.
Next, stockpile with the intent to move other pieces. The more I think about it, how the A-Ram trade was able to happen was partially influenced by a different factor. I had offense to spare. There's no doubting that I lucked out w/ the Pujols trade. At the time, I wasn't convinced that the trade was going to be that overwhelming of a deal for me, particularly given my lack of starting pitching. Brett Myers has been awful this year, and Konerko has been hurt quite a bit. As a complete aside, look at my predicted HR, OBP and SLG numbers w/ Pujols. Just about dead on after 60% of the season... sick, and my R and RBI numbers are off because of the injuries at C and SS. The SB numbers are much better, though, based on my moves.
In any case, one thing that this allowed me to do was to have a known quantity at 1B, as well as a stud at UTIL (Teixeira), and know that my offense was going to be good. This let me take some chances in free agency at C (hello, Ryan Doumit), which worked out, but I also knew that it wouldn't kill me if it didn't. And just as importantly, it let me pick up Juan Pierre (and Wily Tavaras), knowing that I could have a guy who couldn't hit worth a lick actually help out my team, if he stole bases. But more to the point, it let me deal Pat Burrell (who's put up a stud season) for Alex Rios (who's picked it up quite a bit lately), and get back in contention in SB.
Another example of stockpiling was with closers. Early on, I had 4 closers, and was high up in the standings in saves. But, I traded for Kevin Gregg, anyway (part of the A-Ram deal). Why? Because I knew that a closer could be moved. I wasn't sure which one, but I knew that if I had 5 out of 30 closers, then there'd be at least one team looking to trade with me. That worked itself out rather quickly in the Burrell-Rios trade, which also included Kevin Gregg for Carlos Quentin.
And I think the most important factor is to look for teams that you can trade your strengths to, in return for areas that you're weak in. That's sort of obvious. But it's also important to give value to get value. One of the things that seems to annoy UPL folks are the garbage trade offers for players that are about to be dropped because of lack of production. I try to avoid that (though at some points, I may overvalue my players), and give quality for different quality. This was the Quentin for Haren trade. And the Burrell/Gregg for Rios/Quentin trade. And the A-Ram/Oilver Perez for Kevin Gregg/Ben Sheets trade. And really, the Konerko/Myers for Pujols trade was too (that one just hasn't worked out great for CJ, though I expected both Konerko and Myers to play better).
So the three tactics for trading? Bet on proven quantities whether it's who you're acquiring, or who you're backfilling. Stockpile to trade. Trade value for value. Also, I'd say that it helps to have a sense of what you want your roster to eventually look like. I knew that I needed starting pitching. Starting pitching can be hard to get. I had to get enough talent in other scarce areas (or other elite talent) so that I could get after pitching later. If you can combine this with some smart/lucky free agent pickups, you'll have a shot at the W.
Will I get the W? Beats me. But I think that the Roland slam is looking like a reasonable 15-1 shot, a little off from my initial 10-1 guess (which is still pretty good, if you really think about it).
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Competitive Advantage - Moving Players
| 6/25/2008 | Team Name | Points | Waiver | Moves | |
| 1 | O.N. Thugs | 107.5 | 1.5 | 11 | 50 |
| 2 | IStillSuckCurveballs | 103.5 | 0.5 | 8 | 9 |
| 3 | IamJabrone | 98 | 2.5 | 12 | 38 |
| 4 | TheJimmyDixLongballs | 97.5 | -0.5 | 9 | 8 |
| 5 | Black Sox | 96.5 | -1.5 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | 90 Reds | 88.5 | -3.5 | 2 | 32 |
| 7 | Milwaukee Whiffers | 78 | 0 | 5 | 19 |
| 8 | Phatsnapper | 76 | -0.5 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Muddy Mud Skippers | 53.5 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Cheeseheads | 53.5 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 11 | Westy's Slugs | 52.5 | 1 | 3 | 39 |
| 12 | Benver Droncos | 31 | 0.5 | 10 | 30 |
These are the standings for our league as of June 25th. For the past two weeks the top five spots have been fairly consistent, with C-Lauff and Roland fighting over first and O.D. making a strong run at the top of the order too. What's most interesting for me has been watching the many many moves of teams like the Thugs and Jambrone and wondering if I should be adopting the same strategy.
I mean, think about it. Is it normal that 40% of the top 5 teams have made less than 10 moves, while 2 of the 3 teams with the most moves are also in the top 3 of the league?
Unfortunately for me, this kind of rapid player-swap isn't included in any of my long-term plans. Part of this is that I'm still new to the fantasy baseball scene and still learning which players are for real and which are flukes. Most of it is personality - My memory can't really retain obscure stats and player info that well.
I'll just put it out there - is there a strong advantage in making frequent player moves? Are these low-move teams sitting in the top 5 just injury-bombs waiting to happen? With constraints such as time and / or knowledge is there a greater value in using your "Move" utility in trading than working the waiver?
It'd be interesting to track the number of trades made and the number of waiver moves made. It's probably in there somewhere.
Spitting Venom
Greg, one of our UPL regulars has a knack for coming up with timely, hilarious postings. This one just had to be archived:
So naturally, there had to be a follow-up:
As I look more closely, I think that I'd put the "Haters talk big game... ...they all come up lame." lines at the end, just to build the flow a little better. But it wasn't a bad first pass response to what Greg posted. Plus, there's nothing like dissin' a horse that's been recently euthanized.
I'm sure that the fine folks at PETA will be contacting us soon.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
So naturally, there had to be a follow-up:
| Re: Somewhere in a New York club... by:  O.N. Thugs | Jun 24 10:16pm |
| While I can't confirm or deny any reports, according to TMZ.com, there was also a second stanza: Who's on top of the UPL? It's the O.N. Thugs you know so well. Who's on top of the UPL? It's the O.N. Thugs you know so well. Haters talk big game. Punks try to chase fame. Like Eight Belles, They all come up lame. Too many imitators. But no duplicators. Chumps wanna hate us. Jabrones ride the short bus. The Milwaukee Whiffers? Swept up by my Swiffers. JimmyDix? That's too easy. Forget Phatsnapper. May as well be Cheesy. '90 Reds? That's 18 years past. Bret Boone don't star in this cast. Westy's Slugs? That's 18th place. Too far back to see your face. Who's on top of the UPL? It's the O.N. Thugs you know so well. Who's on top of the UPL? It's the O.N. Thugs you know so well. | |
As I look more closely, I think that I'd put the "Haters talk big game... ...they all come up lame." lines at the end, just to build the flow a little better. But it wasn't a bad first pass response to what Greg posted. Plus, there's nothing like dissin' a horse that's been recently euthanized.
I'm sure that the fine folks at PETA will be contacting us soon.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Monday, June 23, 2008
Riding Out Storms II
The last few weeks have been sort of ridiculous. Defended my proposal on May 28. Wrapped up teaching for my summer school course. Drove out to Mizzou for a 5 day conference. Got back, and was prepping for a conference up in Chicago. Almost killed (and got killed by) a deer. Took off for Boston to help my brother pack up stuff for his move out to Hawaii. And finally got back home last night.
I think that I spent a few days in 2nd (and maybe even 3rd place). I was able to get online enough to update my roster a few times, and even pick up some new players. But, I haven't exactly been up to date on everything in either MLB or the UPL.
I knew that my catcher came back, and then got a concussion, so was out for a couple games. And I knew that my revolving door at SS had continued. I knew that my (historically) best starter was still getting lit up. And that my guys weren't really hitting (partially because I took on one too many bad hitting, fast guys).
So, it was interesting to find that somehow, someway, I'm still in first place right now. Go figure.
At this point, I've given up a few points in R, HR, and RBI, which hopefully will come back once Pujols gets off the DL. And when Furcal comes back, I should be able to close out more in R and SB. So, the offense should be OK. On the pitching side, my squad really needs Harang to not be terrible. Simply average from Harang may have been good enough to have this league put away by now (if he was 7-6, rather than 3-10, there would be a 7 point swing in the standings).
But as it stands, it's back to work :-)
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
I think that I spent a few days in 2nd (and maybe even 3rd place). I was able to get online enough to update my roster a few times, and even pick up some new players. But, I haven't exactly been up to date on everything in either MLB or the UPL.
I knew that my catcher came back, and then got a concussion, so was out for a couple games. And I knew that my revolving door at SS had continued. I knew that my (historically) best starter was still getting lit up. And that my guys weren't really hitting (partially because I took on one too many bad hitting, fast guys).
So, it was interesting to find that somehow, someway, I'm still in first place right now. Go figure.
At this point, I've given up a few points in R, HR, and RBI, which hopefully will come back once Pujols gets off the DL. And when Furcal comes back, I should be able to close out more in R and SB. So, the offense should be OK. On the pitching side, my squad really needs Harang to not be terrible. Simply average from Harang may have been good enough to have this league put away by now (if he was 7-6, rather than 3-10, there would be a 7 point swing in the standings).
But as it stands, it's back to work :-)
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
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