I was looking through some old UPL Blog archives. Okay, that's not entirely true. I was going back to put labels on old postings because I'm feeling a little OCD. But in any case, I came across this gem of a post.
Basically, look at what I wrote back in July:
"This is why the most successful team in UPL Football prefers to draft Peyton Manning first...
Why? Think of it this way. Sure, you know that there probably will be 2 or 3 QB's that will perform equal to Peyton. Are you sure who it will be? Do you want to gamble a 3rd or 4th round pick on Big Ben (last year, great bet - 2 seasons ago, not so much)? How about Brett Favre (last year, great bet - 2 season ago, not so much)? Carson Palmer (probably one of the more sure things, actually)? Tom Brady (also puts up good numbers in the UPL, since we value accuracy)? Matt Hasselback? Marc Bulger? Derek Anderson? I don't know. What's the value of that certainty? And more importantly, do you want to entrust a high pick on that chance? Not saying that this is the right strategy, but this is the mindset that you probably see with folks who draft Peyton in the first round. And in the UPL, that has been a historically strong strategy."
As I read through the list of names that I threw in there, all I can think is, "Yikes." Let's see. Brett, still standing in NY, but stats are definitely off, though is is currently #8 in QB points this season. But after that? Big Ben is 21st. And everyone else I listed has been hurt or benched. These were all guys who were Pro Bowl players, recently, I believe. It's like every person I named was cursed. Brady - played for less than a quarter. Carson - missed the last 4 games, and may be out for the season. Hasselbeck - injured all season. Bulger - benched/terrible this year. Derek Anderson - bad numbers and benched. Big Ben - bad numbers/hurt.
More to the point, the top 2 QB's this year so far are Kurt Warner and Drew Brees, and then there's a gap to #3 and #4 (Jay Cutler and Phillip Rivers), and then another gap to #5-7 (Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb, and Peyton Manning).
Of that group, Brees figured to be pretty good. And McNabb has been historically good. Rivers would've probably been a solid choice before the season. Warner would've been a big risk as your lead QB. Ditto for Cutler and Rodgers. Even if you had good feelings about them, you probably take them as your 2nd QB.
Before the season, if you take the QB's I listed (Big Ben, Favre, Palmer, Brady, Hasselbeck, Bulger, and Derek Anderson), and put them on a list with Cutler, Rivers, Warner, Brees, McNabb, and Aaron Rodgers, and then chose at random, you'd basically have 7 good seasons and 6 bricks. That's a lot of risk at a position where you need points. And if you look at the order in which the top 12 QB's were drafted in the UPL this year:
Brady - Peyton - Romo - Brees - Carson - Derek Anderson - Big Ben - Hasselbeck - McNabb - Garrard - Schaub - Bulger.
You see that only 3 of those 12 (Peyton, Brees, McNabb) have been good, Garrad has been reasonable, and Romo/Schaub have been good when healthy (and will be back). My original post wasn't meant to predict doom for all of those QB's. In fact, I wrote the post back in July, expecting that about most of the QB's that I listed would be studs, but that you weren't sure who they were going to be. But I ended up souding a little prophetic when talking about as close to a sure thing as you can get at the QB spot, in Peyton Manning, who I managed to draft.
Don't get me wrong. My team's got some issues this year, but I'm really glad to have a sure thing like Peyton as my QB (particularly since he was a 2nd rounder this year). In fact, I'm so glad to have him that I've been starting him over Kurt Warner, the highest point scorer in fantasy. Go figure. But what's killing me is this Joseph Addai character, whoever the hell he is, and the corpse of Marvin Harrison. But I have a suspicion that the Colts will get things in order, and make a run, just in time for the UPL playoffs...
Update, 11/18 - It appears that Gregg Easterbrook agrees: "As for the Colts, Peyton Manning is hot, Joseph Addai and Marvin Harrison are back -- I'd look out for these guys."
Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
10 Days In: A Hypothetical Re-Draft
So, my last post was sort of an "Anatomy of an O.N. Thug Draft." And already, I'm second-guessing some of my picks.
Which leads to an interesting question. Just a bit into the new season, if we were going to re-draft, what players would go much earlier? I mean, obviously, D-Wade shouldn't fall to 9. But aside from that.
I think that Derrick Rose doesn't last past the 4th round if we re-draft, and I'd seriously consider taking him in 3rd, maybe even into the late 2nd. I think that I'd have him rated at 21 or 22 (right around Brandon Roy and Joe Johnson). I don't know if I'd take him over Brandon Roy with the 28th pick, but if he gets to me in the 4th at 39 overall, there's no way he goes past.
O.J. Mayo also gets boosted up, probably into the 5th/6th round, up from the 90th pick.
Rudy Fernandez goes off no later than the 7th round, much higher than the 152nd pick
Spencer Hawes gets drafted in the 9th/10th round, up from the 151st pick.
Travis Outlaw probably goes a couple rounds earlier, instead of in the 12th round.
Roger Mason and Marc Gasol gets drafted, rather than go FA.
What do you guys think? And who just went too high in the draft? Elton Brand comes to mind. Maybe Pau Gasol.
Anyway, this will be a fun post to revisit over the years - if the keeper draft were being held now (whenever that is), what would the order be?
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Which leads to an interesting question. Just a bit into the new season, if we were going to re-draft, what players would go much earlier? I mean, obviously, D-Wade shouldn't fall to 9. But aside from that.
I think that Derrick Rose doesn't last past the 4th round if we re-draft, and I'd seriously consider taking him in 3rd, maybe even into the late 2nd. I think that I'd have him rated at 21 or 22 (right around Brandon Roy and Joe Johnson). I don't know if I'd take him over Brandon Roy with the 28th pick, but if he gets to me in the 4th at 39 overall, there's no way he goes past.
O.J. Mayo also gets boosted up, probably into the 5th/6th round, up from the 90th pick.
Rudy Fernandez goes off no later than the 7th round, much higher than the 152nd pick
Spencer Hawes gets drafted in the 9th/10th round, up from the 151st pick.
Travis Outlaw probably goes a couple rounds earlier, instead of in the 12th round.
Roger Mason and Marc Gasol gets drafted, rather than go FA.
What do you guys think? And who just went too high in the draft? Elton Brand comes to mind. Maybe Pau Gasol.
Anyway, this will be a fun post to revisit over the years - if the keeper draft were being held now (whenever that is), what would the order be?
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
Monday, November 10, 2008
The Most Important Draft in the History of the UPL
Nope, not hyperbole.
We had the most important draft in the history of the UPL last week, when we drafted our teams for the first season of UPL Basketball, keeper edition. Re went with a roster of 14 players, of which 8 will be kept. This meant that a lot of thinking had to be done about how to craft a roster that both had a chance to win this year, and could be successful in the years to come.
Or, if you're like C-Lauff, you just rolled out of bed and drafted, and hoped for the best. Though that is my normal draft strategy, I actually spent about an hour and a half pre-ranking players, sort of loosely. My strategy was basically to put players into tiers of similar players, and then sort the tiers. Normally, this isn't necessary, as I can sort of feel my way through a draft, and try to find value. But with the premium on getting young players, rather than the grizzled veterans that I usually go with, I had to do my homework. Complicating matters was a random draft so you weren't quite sure you were going to end up, resulting in the need to actually rank players somewhat specifically. I also noted that the Yahoo! ranks had a bunch of sleepers down in the draft (since the ranks are influenced by injury, and are based on this year). I moved them up a little bit, but not necessarily to their true value.
Going into the draft, my pre-rank top 11 (we had 11 teams in the league) looked like this:
1. LeBron James
2. Chris Paul
3. Kobe Bryant
4. Dwyane Wade
5. Amare Stoudemire
6. Chris Bosh
7. Deron Williams
8. Dwight Howard
9. Carlos Boozer
10. Shawn Marion
11. Tim Duncan
Some random thoughts:
I thought that the top 5 names were pretty firmly entrenched in the everyone's mind, with LeBron and CP3 virtual locks at 1 and 2. I thought that you'd have to be nuts to take anyone but LeBron first.
If I didn't get a top 3, I was really wanting to get the 7th pick so I could get Deron.
So, the draft starts up, and I realize that I'm picking 6, which I was sort of happy with. And immediately, we hear Westy complaining that he's picking last, which sort of also made me happy :-) But my issue was that I was going to have access to D-Will, in all likelihood (would've been shocking had I not), and have to make the choice to take him over Chris Bosh, who qualifies at PF and C, shoots well from the field, scores a lot, rebounds, and blocks shots. I think that taking Deron is a slight homer pick, but I justified it by saying to myself that I now get to root for Deron for the rest of his career.
And then the draft starts.
The actual picks went like this:
CP3 goes off the board before LeBron. I thought that was insane, but could be justified. 4th picks goes Amare over D-Wade. Not shocking. Same story as my description of Chris Bosh, over D-Will, as above. And then a doozy hits. Dirk gets (I think) autodrafted at 5, which means that I have access to D-Wade, who I had at 4, overall, and I had a bit of a gap between the top 4 and the next tier. Yikes. If I go strictly logically, then I have to pick D-Wade.
Yep. I'm a homer. I couldn't leave D-Will on the board. And it's turned out that his ankle injury is a little more serious, so he won't play for the next week or two, meaning that he's going to miss a dozen or so games to start the season. And you know what's sick? Even if you told me that was the case at the draft, I'd still go Deron at 6.
What was surprising to me was that D-Wade didn't go off the board right after, at 7, but Bosh is a fine pick. And a very, very lucky thing happens for C-Lauff. D-Wade falls into his lap at 9, when Elton Brand (???) goes off at 8. Yowza. Later on, we hear Westy comment that he had D-Wade ranked #2, overall. I don't know about that - I could see #3, over Kobe, but it's a hard sell to take D-Wade over either LeBron or CP3. But C-Lauff's luck continued on. I thought that KG at 11 was a little high, but Westy is a Minnesota guy, so going with an icon is understandable.
In any case, my pre-ranks for the next block of players looks like this:
12. Josh Smith
13. Dirk Nowitzki
14. Pau Gasol
15. Danny Granger
16. Kevin Garnett
17. Caron Butler
18. Yao Ming
19. Al Jefferson
20. Brandon Roy
21. Joe Johnson
22. Jermaine O'Neal
I was slated for the 17th pick, and with Duncan, Boozer, and Dwight Howard still on the board, I was looking at no worse that Danny Granger on my list. What I ended up with shocked the heck out of me. Also, note that the name that looks out of place is Jermaine O'Neal. I'm not sure why was that high. I think that I just left him there on accident, as I was moving players round in the Yahoo! pre-ranks. I did think that he was going to be rejuvenated with the change of scenery, so I was wanting to draft him later, maybe in the 5th or 6th. More on this later.
Westy matches his old Minnesota star to the future Minnesota star for whom he was traded: Big Al Jefferson. A bit of a stretch, I thought, but I could justify it, since he would've had zero chance at Jefferson in the 3rd round (picking at #33, overall). The strange pick is Baron Davis (?) goes off at 15, overall. Yao going 16 is understandable, I can see not drafting Tim Duncan, because of his age, but I'm shocked when both Carlos Boozer and Dwight Howard are still available for me at 17. And I'm left with another dilemma. Do I go Boozer (age 26) and his consistency? Or do I go with Dwight Howard (age 23, this season), his "Tremendous Upside Potential" and his terrible FT%?
I decide that consistency is needed, and that I was sick of being awful at FT%. I take Boozer at 18, a strong value, based on my pre-rankings, and was expecting Dwight Howard to go right afterwards, not all the way down to 20, overall. Seeing Andrew Bynum go off at 21 was a bit strange (42 on my board). At this point, the players on my board look like this (with the addition of the 5 players that I rated in the top 22, and players already taken, in bold).
11. Tim Duncan
14. Pau Gasol
20. Brandon Roy
21. Joe Johnson
22. Jermaine O'Neal
23. Tony Parker
24. Tyson Chandler
25. Elton Brand
26. Baron Davis
27. Carmelo Anthony
28. Marcus Camby
29. Andre Iguodala
30. Steve Nash
31. Jose Calderon
32. Allen Iverson
33. Chauncey Billups
Nothing terribly surprising, though I did move Tony Parker and Tyson Chandler up quite a bit from their Yahoo! rankings, since I was targeting those guys.
Nothing really shocking. I thought that Camby at 23 may have been a bit early. Rashard Lewis at 24 is a stretch, and Tim Duncan at 25 is serious value. I'm left with Brandon Roy or Joe Johnson (20 and 21 in my rankings) available at 28. For once, I stick with my pre-ranks, and go Brandon Roy. I thought that Rudy Gay at 29 was a little early, same for Calderon at 30, and I had Kevin Martin at 70, so I was shocked to see him go that early.
My next tier of pre-ranks:
22. Jermaine O'Neal
23. Tony Parker
24. Tyson Chandler
27. Carmelo Anthony
34. Antawn Jamison
35. Vince Carter
36. Tracy McGrady
37. Paul Pierce
38. Jason Richardson
39. Rashard Lewis
40. Rudy Gay
41. Jamal Crawford
42. Andrew Bynum
43. Andrei Kirilenko
44. David Lee
There was a block of vets, including VC, T-Mac, Pierce, J-Rich, Jamal Crawford, etc. who were all getting a little older, and still could score and play. Guys who could have been 2nd or 3rd round picks, if you were playing for this year, and weren't afraid of injury. As the round started, I was looking at either VC or T-Mac. I probably go T-Mac there, since he's a little younger.
Carmelo falls to C-Lauff at 36, which I think is pretty good value. And I'm picking at 39, with T-Mac, VC, or Jamison available. And at this point, I think that I can cheat more w/ Tony Parker, Tyson Chandler, and Jermaine O'Neal who Yahoo had ranked in the 60's or 70's. But instead of going w/ T-Mac, I decided that I wanted to pick a thug. Ron Artest (57 in my rankings) was about to go off, according to the Yahoo! ranks, so I went with him, since I wanted to lock in some steals for my team. I'm still figuring out why I went down that road, instead of just going w/ either T-Mac or VC, or just getting Tony Parker right there. But despite the second-guessing of my own logic, I'm strangely happy with having Ron Artest on my team.
Going into Round 5, my board looks like this (again, names in bold are already gone):
22. Jermaine O'Neal
23. Tony Parker
24. Tyson Chandler
36. Tracy McGrady
41. Jamal Crawford
43. Andrei Kirilenko
44. David Lee
45. Zach Randolph
46. David West
47. Andrew Bogut
48. Al Horford
49. Emeka Okafor
50. Samuel Dalembert
51. Michael Redd
52. Greg Oden
53. Kevin Durant
54. Michael Beasley
55. LaMarcus Aldridge
Here, I start to rate the rookies from last year and this year. As the draft continues, I find myself playing the Yahoo! rankings, rather than my own, since I see that most folks are following the Yahoo! ranks.
I roll w/ LaMarcus Aldridge, since he's about the go off the board, and I could use the consistent scoring at C. At this point, the draft was following the Yahoo! rankings pretty closely, so I sort of got rid of my list, and ran with the Yahoo! list.
The 6th round opens up like this:
My choices are pretty ample here. I'd love to get either Tyson Chandler, T-Mac, or Tony Parker here. Drafting one of the Knicks (Zach Randolph, Jamal Crawford, or David Lee) also came across my mind, as did going after one of the rookie/2nd years (D-Rose, OJ Mayo, Greg Oden). And I'm actually thinking pretty hard about this pick. I had just about talked myself into Tony Parker when time ran out on me. So my pick was the highest player left on my pre-rank.
Jermaine O'Neal.
Going into the draft, getting him in the 6th would've been OK, but I think that I could've waited another round or 2 and still gotten him. I wanted to get another PG to complement D-Will, and Parker would've fit the bill.
And of course, Eva Longoria's husband goes off the board right afterwards. Oh well.
Doh.
But the rest of the draft went well. My team looks like this, with the overall pick listed to the left, and some notable value picks, based on my ratings, listed on the right.
Now, so far, the team is looking solid. I've wandered up the standings w/out my #1 pick playing at all, which is sort of surprising. I was expecting to basically tread water for a little while, until Deron came back. Instead, the team looks good, and will be in great shape when Monta Ellis comes back in a couple months (note - his injury is a freak injury, not a chronic one, and if he's healthy coming into the season he's probably a top 40 pick in this draft).
I ended up dropping Chris Duhon, and going with Nate Robinson, who seems to score a little more (and get more steals). But other than that, my current roster is what I drafted (though there was a little turbulance along the way). I'm a little weak in rebounding right now, but part of that is missing Tyson Chandler for a couple games. Also, once Deron gets back to stabilize my assist numbers, I'll be able to rotate more bigs into my UTIL slots. But, things are looking alright for the future of the O.N. Thugs.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
We had the most important draft in the history of the UPL last week, when we drafted our teams for the first season of UPL Basketball, keeper edition. Re went with a roster of 14 players, of which 8 will be kept. This meant that a lot of thinking had to be done about how to craft a roster that both had a chance to win this year, and could be successful in the years to come.
Or, if you're like C-Lauff, you just rolled out of bed and drafted, and hoped for the best. Though that is my normal draft strategy, I actually spent about an hour and a half pre-ranking players, sort of loosely. My strategy was basically to put players into tiers of similar players, and then sort the tiers. Normally, this isn't necessary, as I can sort of feel my way through a draft, and try to find value. But with the premium on getting young players, rather than the grizzled veterans that I usually go with, I had to do my homework. Complicating matters was a random draft so you weren't quite sure you were going to end up, resulting in the need to actually rank players somewhat specifically. I also noted that the Yahoo! ranks had a bunch of sleepers down in the draft (since the ranks are influenced by injury, and are based on this year). I moved them up a little bit, but not necessarily to their true value.
Going into the draft, my pre-rank top 11 (we had 11 teams in the league) looked like this:
1. LeBron James
2. Chris Paul
3. Kobe Bryant
4. Dwyane Wade
5. Amare Stoudemire
6. Chris Bosh
7. Deron Williams
8. Dwight Howard
9. Carlos Boozer
10. Shawn Marion
11. Tim Duncan
Some random thoughts:
I thought that the top 5 names were pretty firmly entrenched in the everyone's mind, with LeBron and CP3 virtual locks at 1 and 2. I thought that you'd have to be nuts to take anyone but LeBron first.
If I didn't get a top 3, I was really wanting to get the 7th pick so I could get Deron.
So, the draft starts up, and I realize that I'm picking 6, which I was sort of happy with. And immediately, we hear Westy complaining that he's picking last, which sort of also made me happy :-) But my issue was that I was going to have access to D-Will, in all likelihood (would've been shocking had I not), and have to make the choice to take him over Chris Bosh, who qualifies at PF and C, shoots well from the field, scores a lot, rebounds, and blocks shots. I think that taking Deron is a slight homer pick, but I justified it by saying to myself that I now get to root for Deron for the rest of his career.
And then the draft starts.
The actual picks went like this:
| Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Chris Paul | Sparty Rules |
| 2. | LeBron James | European Sel... |
| 3. | Kobe Bryant | Dribbling Balls |
| 4. | Amare Stoudemire | Phatsnapper |
| 5. | Dirk Nowitzki | chowtime |
CP3 goes off the board before LeBron. I thought that was insane, but could be justified. 4th picks goes Amare over D-Wade. Not shocking. Same story as my description of Chris Bosh, over D-Will, as above. And then a doozy hits. Dirk gets (I think) autodrafted at 5, which means that I have access to D-Wade, who I had at 4, overall, and I had a bit of a gap between the top 4 and the next tier. Yikes. If I go strictly logically, then I have to pick D-Wade.
| 6. | Deron Williams | O.N. Thugs |
| 7. | Chris Bosh | Love Timberw... |
| 8. | Elton Brand | Milwaukee Br... |
| 9. | Dwyane Wade | IamJabrone |
| 10. | Shawn Marion | Floor burns |
| 11. | Kevin Garnett | Westy's Ballers |
Yep. I'm a homer. I couldn't leave D-Will on the board. And it's turned out that his ankle injury is a little more serious, so he won't play for the next week or two, meaning that he's going to miss a dozen or so games to start the season. And you know what's sick? Even if you told me that was the case at the draft, I'd still go Deron at 6.
What was surprising to me was that D-Wade didn't go off the board right after, at 7, but Bosh is a fine pick. And a very, very lucky thing happens for C-Lauff. D-Wade falls into his lap at 9, when Elton Brand (???) goes off at 8. Yowza. Later on, we hear Westy comment that he had D-Wade ranked #2, overall. I don't know about that - I could see #3, over Kobe, but it's a hard sell to take D-Wade over either LeBron or CP3. But C-Lauff's luck continued on. I thought that KG at 11 was a little high, but Westy is a Minnesota guy, so going with an icon is understandable.
In any case, my pre-ranks for the next block of players looks like this:
12. Josh Smith
13. Dirk Nowitzki
14. Pau Gasol
15. Danny Granger
16. Kevin Garnett
17. Caron Butler
18. Yao Ming
19. Al Jefferson
20. Brandon Roy
21. Joe Johnson
22. Jermaine O'Neal
I was slated for the 17th pick, and with Duncan, Boozer, and Dwight Howard still on the board, I was looking at no worse that Danny Granger on my list. What I ended up with shocked the heck out of me. Also, note that the name that looks out of place is Jermaine O'Neal. I'm not sure why was that high. I think that I just left him there on accident, as I was moving players round in the Yahoo! pre-ranks. I did think that he was going to be rejuvenated with the change of scenery, so I was wanting to draft him later, maybe in the 5th or 6th. More on this later.
| Round 2 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Al Jefferson | Westy's Ballers |
| 2. | Caron Butler | Floor burns |
| 3. | Josh Smith | IamJabrone |
| 4. | Baron Davis | Milwaukee Br... |
| 5. | Yao Ming | Love Timberw... |
Westy matches his old Minnesota star to the future Minnesota star for whom he was traded: Big Al Jefferson. A bit of a stretch, I thought, but I could justify it, since he would've had zero chance at Jefferson in the 3rd round (picking at #33, overall). The strange pick is Baron Davis (?) goes off at 15, overall. Yao going 16 is understandable, I can see not drafting Tim Duncan, because of his age, but I'm shocked when both Carlos Boozer and Dwight Howard are still available for me at 17. And I'm left with another dilemma. Do I go Boozer (age 26) and his consistency? Or do I go with Dwight Howard (age 23, this season), his "Tremendous Upside Potential" and his terrible FT%?
| 6. | Carlos Boozer | O.N. Thugs |
| 7. | Danny Granger | chowtime |
| 8. | Allen Iverson | Phatsnapper |
| 9. | Dwight Howard | Dribbling Balls |
| 10. | Andrew Bynum | European Sel... |
| 11. | Chauncey Billups | Sparty Rules |
I decide that consistency is needed, and that I was sick of being awful at FT%. I take Boozer at 18, a strong value, based on my pre-rankings, and was expecting Dwight Howard to go right afterwards, not all the way down to 20, overall. Seeing Andrew Bynum go off at 21 was a bit strange (42 on my board). At this point, the players on my board look like this (with the addition of the 5 players that I rated in the top 22, and players already taken, in bold).
11. Tim Duncan
14. Pau Gasol
20. Brandon Roy
21. Joe Johnson
22. Jermaine O'Neal
23. Tony Parker
24. Tyson Chandler
25. Elton Brand
26. Baron Davis
27. Carmelo Anthony
28. Marcus Camby
29. Andre Iguodala
30. Steve Nash
31. Jose Calderon
32. Allen Iverson
33. Chauncey Billups
Nothing terribly surprising, though I did move Tony Parker and Tyson Chandler up quite a bit from their Yahoo! rankings, since I was targeting those guys.
| Round 3 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Marcus Camby | Sparty Rules |
| 2. | Rashard Lewis | European Sel... |
| 3. | Tim Duncan | Dribbling Balls |
| 4. | Steve Nash | Phatsnapper |
| 5. | Pau Gasol | chowtime |
| 6. | Brandon Roy | O.N. Thugs |
| 7. | Rudy Gay | Love Timberw... |
| 8. | Jose Calderon | Milwaukee Br... |
| 9. | Joe Johnson | IamJabrone |
| 10. | Kevin Martin | Floor burns |
| 11. | Andre Iguodala | Westy's Ballers |
Nothing really shocking. I thought that Camby at 23 may have been a bit early. Rashard Lewis at 24 is a stretch, and Tim Duncan at 25 is serious value. I'm left with Brandon Roy or Joe Johnson (20 and 21 in my rankings) available at 28. For once, I stick with my pre-ranks, and go Brandon Roy. I thought that Rudy Gay at 29 was a little early, same for Calderon at 30, and I had Kevin Martin at 70, so I was shocked to see him go that early.
My next tier of pre-ranks:
22. Jermaine O'Neal
23. Tony Parker
24. Tyson Chandler
27. Carmelo Anthony
34. Antawn Jamison
35. Vince Carter
36. Tracy McGrady
37. Paul Pierce
38. Jason Richardson
39. Rashard Lewis
40. Rudy Gay
41. Jamal Crawford
42. Andrew Bynum
43. Andrei Kirilenko
44. David Lee
There was a block of vets, including VC, T-Mac, Pierce, J-Rich, Jamal Crawford, etc. who were all getting a little older, and still could score and play. Guys who could have been 2nd or 3rd round picks, if you were playing for this year, and weren't afraid of injury. As the round started, I was looking at either VC or T-Mac. I probably go T-Mac there, since he's a little younger.
| Round 4 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Paul Pierce | Westy's Ballers |
| 2. | David West | Floor burns |
| 3. | Carmelo Anthony | IamJabrone |
| 4. | Jason Richardson | Milwaukee Br... |
| 5. | Kevin Durant | Love Timberw... |
| 6. | Ron Artest | O.N. Thugs |
| 7. | Vince Carter | chowtime |
| 8. | Antawn Jamison | Phatsnapper |
| 9. | Jason Kidd | Dribbling Balls |
| 10. | Michael Redd | European Sel... |
| 11. | Rasheed Wallace | Sparty Rules |
Carmelo falls to C-Lauff at 36, which I think is pretty good value. And I'm picking at 39, with T-Mac, VC, or Jamison available. And at this point, I think that I can cheat more w/ Tony Parker, Tyson Chandler, and Jermaine O'Neal who Yahoo had ranked in the 60's or 70's. But instead of going w/ T-Mac, I decided that I wanted to pick a thug. Ron Artest (57 in my rankings) was about to go off, according to the Yahoo! ranks, so I went with him, since I wanted to lock in some steals for my team. I'm still figuring out why I went down that road, instead of just going w/ either T-Mac or VC, or just getting Tony Parker right there. But despite the second-guessing of my own logic, I'm strangely happy with having Ron Artest on my team.
Going into Round 5, my board looks like this (again, names in bold are already gone):
22. Jermaine O'Neal
23. Tony Parker
24. Tyson Chandler
36. Tracy McGrady
41. Jamal Crawford
43. Andrei Kirilenko
44. David Lee
45. Zach Randolph
46. David West
47. Andrew Bogut
48. Al Horford
49. Emeka Okafor
50. Samuel Dalembert
51. Michael Redd
52. Greg Oden
53. Kevin Durant
54. Michael Beasley
55. LaMarcus Aldridge
Here, I start to rate the rookies from last year and this year. As the draft continues, I find myself playing the Yahoo! rankings, rather than my own, since I see that most folks are following the Yahoo! ranks.
| Round 5 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Hedo Turkoglu | Sparty Rules |
| 2. | Gerald Wallace | European Sel... |
| 3. | Corey Maggette | Dribbling Balls |
| 4. | Mike Dunleavy | Phatsnapper |
| 5. | Chris Kaman | chowtime |
| 6. | LaMarcus Aldridge | O.N. Thugs |
| 7. | Josh Howard | Love Timberw... |
| 8. | Mehmet Okur | Milwaukee Br... |
| 9. | Al Horford | IamJabrone |
| 10. | Mo Williams | Floor burns |
| 11. | Devin Harris | Westy's Ballers |
I roll w/ LaMarcus Aldridge, since he's about the go off the board, and I could use the consistent scoring at C. At this point, the draft was following the Yahoo! rankings pretty closely, so I sort of got rid of my list, and ran with the Yahoo! list.
The 6th round opens up like this:
| Round 6 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Mike Miller | Westy's Ballers |
| 2. | Lamar Odom | Floor burns |
| 3. | Michael Beasley | IamJabrone |
| 4. | Andris Biedrins | Milwaukee Br... |
| 5. | Andre Miller | Love Timberw... |
My choices are pretty ample here. I'd love to get either Tyson Chandler, T-Mac, or Tony Parker here. Drafting one of the Knicks (Zach Randolph, Jamal Crawford, or David Lee) also came across my mind, as did going after one of the rookie/2nd years (D-Rose, OJ Mayo, Greg Oden). And I'm actually thinking pretty hard about this pick. I had just about talked myself into Tony Parker when time ran out on me. So my pick was the highest player left on my pre-rank.
Jermaine O'Neal.
Going into the draft, getting him in the 6th would've been OK, but I think that I could've waited another round or 2 and still gotten him. I wanted to get another PG to complement D-Will, and Parker would've fit the bill.
And of course, Eva Longoria's husband goes off the board right afterwards. Oh well.
| 6. | Jermaine O'Neal | O.N. Thugs |
| 7. | Tony Parker | chowtime |
| 8. | Ray Allen | Phatsnapper |
| 9. | Greg Oden | Dribbling Balls |
| 10. | Tracy McGrady | European Sel... |
| 11. | Brad Miller | Sparty Rules |
Doh.
But the rest of the draft went well. My team looks like this, with the overall pick listed to the left, and some notable value picks, based on my ratings, listed on the right.
| O.N. Thugs | My Rating | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | (6) | Deron Williams | ||
| 2. | (17) | Carlos Boozer | (9) | |
| 3. | (28) | Brandon Roy | (20) | |
| 4. | (39) | Ron Artest | ||
| 5. | (50) | LaMarcus Aldridge | ||
| 6. | (61) | Jermaine O'Neal | (22) | |
| 7. | (72) | Tyson Chandler | (24) | |
| 8. | (83) | Richard Jefferson | ||
| 9. | (94) | Monta Ellis | (70) | |
| 10. | (105) | Ronnie Brewer | (87) | |
| 11. | (116) | Ben Gordon | (74) | |
| 12. | (127) | Chris Duhon | ||
| 13. | (138) | Darrell Arthur | (75) | |
| 14. | (149) | Yi Jianlian | (94) | |
Now, so far, the team is looking solid. I've wandered up the standings w/out my #1 pick playing at all, which is sort of surprising. I was expecting to basically tread water for a little while, until Deron came back. Instead, the team looks good, and will be in great shape when Monta Ellis comes back in a couple months (note - his injury is a freak injury, not a chronic one, and if he's healthy coming into the season he's probably a top 40 pick in this draft).
UPL - Isiah Thomas Hotline
| Rank | Team | Points | Pts Change | Waiver | Moves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Dribbling Balls | 72 | 0.5 | 8 | - | |
| 2. | O.N. Thugs | 70 | 5 | 6 | 5 | |
| 3. | European Sellout | 67.5 | 1.5 | 9 | 1 | |
| 4. | Phatsnapper | 62 | -9 | 11 | 1 | |
| 5. | Sparty Rules | 59.5 | 3 | 10 | - | |
| 5. | Milwaukee Bricks | 59.5 | -2 | 4 | 1 | |
| 7. | Floor burns | 57 | -2 | 2 | - | |
| 8. | chowtime | 55 | 0 | 7 | 2 | |
| 9. | IamJabrone | 53 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 10. | Love Timberwolves | 52.5 | -1 | 5 | - | |
| 11. | Westy's Ballers | 52 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
I ended up dropping Chris Duhon, and going with Nate Robinson, who seems to score a little more (and get more steals). But other than that, my current roster is what I drafted (though there was a little turbulance along the way). I'm a little weak in rebounding right now, but part of that is missing Tyson Chandler for a couple games. Also, once Deron gets back to stabilize my assist numbers, I'll be able to rotate more bigs into my UTIL slots. But, things are looking alright for the future of the O.N. Thugs.
-Chairman (aka O.N. Thugs)
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